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One thing I really liked…

One thing I really liked about the Beilein teams is the lack of one and dones.  He developed a lot of 3 star guys into NBA material over multiple years.  I hate it when every year it is a whole new roster.  You get to feeling like family when the guys are around for 3 or 4 years.  The one and done just feels like a bunch of hired guns with no allegiance to anything but themselves.  Hard to care about a team when the players see the team as just a step to the NBA.  Here is to May and what looks like it might be a Beilein type of coach.

The big question. . . is he…

The big question. . . is he a CEO?  So much of being a head coach isn't about the x's and o's of football, but the management of the business of running a football program.  I don't know that he has ever had to do that.

(No subject)

 

I have noticed that if…

I have noticed that if forward progress is briefly stopped by defenders and the runner is "flung" backwards, but then escapes the grasp of the defender, the forward progress is "undone" and the player will now be spotted at his next point of forward progress.  QB scrambles being the most common example.  The QB might roll out, be confronted with a couple defenders who slam into the QB who then spins out of their grasp going backwards and then might under their own power loop back even further.  Sometimes this results in a devastatingly huge sack and sometimes it results in a huge gain when the QB either loops around to the other side for a big run gain or finds a receiver for a big pass gain (and many times it results in a throw away).  This has made me consider whether there should be some defensive technique that attempts to do this on purpose (but not on the QB since the pass threat and throw away threat are so high).  Of course the great risk would be that the player gets away for a big gain. 

I say this a lot.  Don't go…

yeah for 1000!  However,

I say this a lot.  Don't go for 2 unless you are in the last half of the 4th qtr and the math says you must have it.  You just don't know what is going to happen and losing that sure point can bite you in the ass.  When we were up 29/24, we should have been up 30/24 where a field goal would have put the game away.  And then, a who could have predicted second safety only put us up by a touchdown instead of 8.  I was so paranoid Maryland was going to tie the game with a simple TD/PAT instead of needing a TD/2pt.  Take the easy points until the game is down to so little time that you just can't get combos of scores that make that 1 point forfeiture look like a really bad idea.

Go Blue!  

But I'm not sure…

Go Blue!  

But I'm not sure I agree that UM wanted it more or were any more emotionally and team/school spirit wise invested in this game.  PSU was keyed up for this game in a big way as were their fans.

We were just better.

Watching the game, I…

Watching the game, I commented that I didn't think I had seen a UM game like this since I was in high school.  Well ESPN confirmed it.  Fewest passing attempts since 1987, the year I graduated high school.  Man I'm old.

Just trying to figure this out though.  What was the angle?  Was this Bo offense the game plan whether Harbaugh was on the field or not?  Was it just an "oh crap I am head coach and I want to keep it simple" thing that had nothing to do with any Harbaugh strategy?  Or was it a Deion Sanders deal where UM was like, "OK, here it is, we're running the ball every time, no need to call any of our previous opponent coaches to get our signs, the guy on the sideline doing those funny antics is him calling in a run play, now stop us!"

The deal is you need two TD…

The deal is you need two TD's with at least one 2pt conversion (and one PAT).  So go for it the first time or the second from a math point is all the same.  Unless it is your intent to go for the win by trying to make 2pt both times.  But to me, since the odds of making the 2pt conversion are not very good, I would take the PAT on the first one, just to keep things exciting.  If you miss it on the first time, the rest of the game is kind of anticlimactic since it is damn near impossible to make 2 onside kicks and 2 scores (at least one of which must be a TD) in 2 minutes.  Everyone knows that including the losing team and things just sort of look desperate.

Yup, kind of like a gambling…

Yup, kind of like a gambling addict after an early loss who keeps chasing that loss with more bad decisions.  The stats say that a 2pt attempt is worth something like .5 points based on something like a 1/4 success rate (I'm sure someone can look up the exact number), so unless you know that you must have it, it is not a good move.  And you never know you must have it in the first half.  Hell, you can't really know you must have it until the second half of the 4th qtr.  There are just so many ways points can be scored by both teams that you just can't predict that you need it, so why give up 1/2 point on the attempt?

Pulling this 4pm Friday…

Pulling this 4pm Friday holiday weekend decree 20 hrs before the biggest game of the year strikes me as the act of a small, vindictive person who thinks he is so clever but knows deep down how inadequate and pathetic he really is. 

UM 35

PSU 3

I don't believe I have ever…

I don't believe I have ever seen Michigan with a better passing QB in my 45 years of watching UM.  I was skeptical last week.  Maybe he was just having a special day, a one off thing.  But now, after two weeks of the same, I think this is the real thing.  And he even ran the ball once like an actual runner, not a hobbled gazelle.  But I would prefer he stick to passing.  If he is going to run, please slide or go out of bounds and keep them few and far between.  It isn't just that he completes the passes, but he completes them precisely where they need to be to facilitate YAC.  How nice must it be to be in the UM receiving core right now?

Of course it wasn't half the…

Of course it wasn't half the miracle that the shot clock buzzer beater Wisci banked in for 3 a couple minutes earlier was.  Kind of balanced out, just the fact that HD made his with the game clock expiring vs the shot clock expiring makes it more noteworthy.  But HD's shot was actually squared up and made conventionally, like he actually planned it that way.

Absolutely. How is a defense…

Absolutely. How is a defense supposed to know if he is even going to kick the ball at all. Once you start running you give up your special status. 

But let's say the top 4 all…

But let's say the top 4 all win, but number 3 or 4 wins ugly. Now a number 5 team playing a conference championship gets a chance to make a move with a strong performance. 

Agree about 90%   But take…

Agree about 90%   But take the case of being number 6 going into conf champ week. Now let's say number 4 loses (ie USC) and you at 6 play another game, you get a chance to potentially leapfrog an idle 5 time with a dominant performance. Had LSU not lost last week, they would be playing for a chance to leapfrog OSU. With GA being a lock, a conference title game in some situations can help. Or if the SEC title game were Bama vs GA, then Bama would be playing to impress and leap frog OSU. Or if your conference's highest-rated team is 5 or 6, it gives you one more chance to impress. 

A "funny bone" injury would…

A "funny bone" injury would be a pinched nerve and there is no nerve there to pinch.  It appeared the hit was just above the patella, on the quadriceps tendon.  That is a fairly low pain location to get hit.  In the context of a football player who gets whacked all the time, this would not be anything special.  What would hurt is a hyperextended knee or any other knee ligament damage associated with the leverage on your knee that occurs when your foot is stuck in the ground and someone hits you there.  Furthermore, he didn't reach to the spot where he was actually hit as he writhed in pain, suggesting an injury of hyperextension rather than direct location of hit injury.  

You can not detect a small tear on physical exam.  You need an MRI.  I wouldn't be surprised if the football team owns there own MRI, they make small MRI machines designed just for doing knees.  And a sprain is also a damaged ligament, which can be quite debilitating for a long time.  No way about it, even if Corum takes the field next week, he will be less capable than he would have been without that hit.  Hoping for the best here, we need him to beat OSU.  Corum is the center piece of our offense, much more so than anyone else, including McCarthy.  

I have a hard time believing…

I have a hard time believing that Corum didn't tear his ACL.  The angle of the hit and the instant debilitating pain that appeared to hit him.  I hope I am wrong.  The fact he came out to run one play seems unlikely he tore it as you can typically diagnose an ACL on the field and I expect would not put him back on the field.  But perhaps it is a partial tear that only an MRI can see.  I assume he is on his way to UM medical center to get an MRI right now.  Even if it is just a sprain, I fear he won't be 100% next week and he definitely will be taking it easy at practice this week.  And what is up with Schoonmaker?  Is he gonna be back next week?  McCarthy seems kind of lost without him.  Anyway, thank God for Moody and that ice that runs in his veins.

As more or less the best…

As more or less the best kicker UM has ever had, I would say, don't mess with it.

If the fan had called the…

If the fan had called the female official a "dick head" instead, probably wouldn't have worked.  Now "asshole"  . . . well there you have yourself a nice gender neutral insult.  We'll have to get the insult police out there to ensure proper gender neutral insults are used.  

The unusual reasons we lost:…

The unusual reasons we lost: 1) Not finishing at the rim, 2) sucking at free throws.  

The not so unusual reason: Diabate can't hold onto the ball.  I just don't know if he isn't strong enough, doesn't use the muscles he has, or has some sort of technique problem, but people are constantly knocking the ball out of his hands, and each of those is minus ~1point for us and plus ~1 point for them, maybe more since fast breaks result which are usually worth more than 1 point.

I don't know about that.  A…

I don't know about that.  A google searches gives me nothing.  It also gives me this video of Eli being interviewed about the game where he looks pretty good.  I assume the footage of the team running around on the court was all filmed yesterday (the video was posted last night) and I saw Diabate, Jase Howard, and Brooks on the court looking quite healthy.  Didn't spot Williams but might have just missed it.

https://news.yahoo.com/michigans-eli-brooks-hungry-revenge-025312709.html

When Xavier, hmm, I mean…

When Xavier, hmm, I mean Brooks hit that sky hook, I knew we had it.  I forgave him for loosing the ball out of bounds the possession prior.  

Yeah, I remember some games…

Yeah, I remember some games earlier in the season when they were 6 turnovers in the first 6 minutes.

Great defense today.  So…

Great defense today.  So many points after picking OSU's pocket and fast breaking it.  That was the difference in this game. Then just good solid team play on the offensive end.  Not sure what role not having Hunter playing on the defensive end had on the great defensive play.  Hats off to Martelli on a well coached game.

I was yanking my hair out…

I was yanking my hair out watching them try to run the clock out with 3 minutes to play.  Standing just over half court dribbling until there is 8 seconds left and then scrambling to get some pathetic shot up nearly cost us this game.  When you are up by 12 with 1 minute, OK, dribble it out, but come on.  Also would help if Howard wouldn't run out on the court to pick up a live ball.  Has anyone ever seen a coach do that?

Yeah, do you remember Ali…

Yeah, do you remember Ali Haji-Sheikh?  That guy was money.  Bo wouldn't give him a scholarship until finally in his senior year.  He grew up in Texas but was originally from Ann Arbor, that and he was smart are the only reasons we had the privilege of his services as a kicker.

I am going to miss him. …

I am going to miss him.  That comfort level of knowing that that 1) the field goal will be made and 2) the kickoff will always result in the ball being at most, the 25.  And of course, you can go a get a beer while the extra point is being kicked.  

Just an FYI from somehow who…

Just an FYI from somehow who lives in West Lake Hills, Texas and whose kids go to Westlake High School.  The high school is Westlake High School, but the city is West Lake Hills, TX.  The distinction would be academic, except for the very confusing problem that there is a Westlake, Texas and that is a different place, North of Dallas.  Don't ask me. . . I agree, it makes no sense.  And just to be clear, West Lake is two words in the city name and one word in the high school.  ????

Some trivia for you.  Westlake High School is the only high school to have two QB's to win Superbowls (Drew Brees and Nick Foles).  Also the only high school to have two QB's play against each other in an NFL game (same guys).  There are about a dozen guys from Westlake who have played in the nfl total.  Lets make this dude the next!

Edward's runs like a 5 star…

Edward's runs like a 5 star rb, he catches like a 5 star wideout, he throws like a 5 star QB, I say we put him in at defensive end and see what he does there. 

Did these guys just meet…

Did these guys just meet each other yesterday? Cause they sure play like it.

Knowing what is best and…

Knowing what is best and calling out hypocrites are two different things.  You don't have to know what is right/best to know hypocrisy.    

Are you saying that an…

Are you saying that an academic dept gets to be more risky than an athletic dept, just cause it is a university and physics must go on at all costs?  Cause you would be less worried about a bunch of middle aged couch potato professors getting and dying of covid than a bunch of 19 year olds?

My bad, but I think I was…

My bad, but I think I was told that the water polo team and rowing team shared winter training facilities.  Either way, water polo, rowing, whatever.  It is no more connected to BB than the physics dept.  People in power trying desperately to prove it.

Even more, again, I ask, why…

Even more, again, I ask, why the athletic dept?  WTH does the basketball team have to do with the water polo team?  There is no connection here that is any stronger than anyone else on campus.  The logic is . . . .well it just isn't logic.  Like I said, someone has an axe to grind with the athletic dept, probably some sort of personal distaste for it.  

I heard that it was a woman…

I heard that it was a woman on the water polo team.  How anyone on the water polo team is any more connected to the basketball team as compared to say, the physics department is beyond me.  But the physics department is still open.  And no doubt the basketball team is more heavily monitored than anyone else on campus.  If it isn't it certainly could/should be.  It isn't difficult to do.  The logic here baffles me. It is like someone has an axe to grind with the athletic dept.    

Precisely.  This two week…

Precisely.  This two week moratorium will end and nothing will be any different than before.  The athletes have not been quarantined as far as any news report I have seen.  It will still be spreading in 2 weeks.  So how is this changing anything?  Why don't they do the proper thing, contact tracing on the infected person, quarantine them for 4 days and then run tests on all those people and let everyone else be.  Rapid antigen test costs less then $30.  Heck, the could test every basketball player/coach every single day for maybe $500/day cost . . . about what Juwan is paid every hour of work.  Athlete or not, that is how it works.  How is this infected person somehow been in contact with every athlete at UM but not any of the general student population?  The logic of shutting down sports makes no sense.  Shut down the entire school or shut down nothing.  And if you shut it down, you must quarantine, the virus doesn't spread only while playing sports. 

Great Idea! this will stop…

Great Idea! this will stop the virus, cause everyone knows the most likely way to get the virus is by playing basketball against 10 other people who get tested every other day. 

Great Idea! this will stop…

Great Idea! this will stop the virus, cause everyone knows the most likely way to get the virus is by playing basketball against 10 other people who get tested every other day. 

Great Idea! this will stop…

Great Idea! this will stop the virus, cause everyone knows the most likely way to get the virus is by playing basketball against 10 other people who get tested every other day.  /s

Great Idea! this will stop…

Great Idea! this will stop the virus, cause everyone knows the most likely way to get the virus is by playing basketball against 10 other people who get tested every other day.  /s

Good chance OSU/MSU is cx'd…

Good chance OSU/MSU is cx'd this weekend as a result of OSU having Covid.  So OSU may be SOL.

Thanks go out to the UM…

Thanks go out to the UM players who volunteered to get Covid.  In doing so, they not only bestowed  heavenly mercy upon this team but knocked OSU out of the BIG championship game.  OSU with only 5 games is ineligible.  IU sends their gratitude.  

Oh NO!  Franz broke his Hanz…

Oh NO!  Franz broke his Hanz!   

Sorry.

The two minute thing is so…

The two minute thing is so dumb.  Last I checked, getting screwed out of a point in the first minute of a game subtracts the same amount from the final score as getting screwed out of a point in the last minute.  So what happens if the call happens real close to 2 minutes, do we first do a review to see if the clock had hit 2 minutes or not and then review the actual call only if under 2?  Video review should be implemented equally at all points in the game.  Maybe they should have someone in a booth that does the review who specializes in using the tech so s/he can get the correct call in a few seconds instead of a few minutes.

Couldn't agree more.  If…

Couldn't agree more.  If someone slaps the ball out of your hand and out of bounds, its out on him, I don't care if the ball spent one frame of video longer on your finger than the swatter.  Your "rule" is well written and easy to interpret/implement.

Johnny Orr talk got me…

Johnny Orr talk got me googling. 

1980, Orr left UM for more money, he was making $33,665

2019, John Beilein is making $3.37 million

John Beilein is coincidentally making precisely 100 times what Orr was making 39 years later.  Orr's salary would be a rounding error in John Beilein's.  Wow

After having the privilege…

After having the privilege of seeing my first game of the season in person, I was struck by the receivers quitting on their quarterback.  Perhaps it is the novelty of having an O-line that is only just recently giving its QB more than 1.5 seconds.  But I think someone needs to tell the receivers that when the route is finished and the QB is still alive, they need to work back to the QB or otherwise do something beside loiter on the field.  On a bunch of occasions I was watching Shea scrambling around trying to find someone to throw to, while the receivers were just standing there alongside a defender waiting for the whistle.

Found it

I found this:  http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/stats/stats-exp…

Looks like expected points at the 25 are just shy of 1.  Expected points at the 15 are right about 0.  Inside of 15 it starts to go negative.

This doesn't take into account the drive following.  I would venture to guess that if you compared starting field position for the kicking-off team on their drive following the kick-off, that they end up in far better shape with another point or two expected there as well.

In all, I bet a 1st and 10 from the 15 is worth 2 or 3 points more than a 1st and 10 from the 25 to the team who did the kick-off.

 

EDIT:  OK, just read the entire description.  That graph is based on "next points scored" by either team, not just points scored on that offensive series.  So it already takes into account that the next drive is likely to start off better for the kicking team when they pin the receiving team deep.  So, anyway, Fogue's kicking is probably worth 1 point every time he pins them at the 15 vs kicking out the back of the end zone.

Can MGoBlog Tell me the Point Spread 15 yardline vs 25

I would love to know the expected point value on a 1st and 10 at your own 15 vs 1st and 10 at your own 25.  I love these kickoffs that go into low earth orbit and then come down at the 1.

Plus, turnovers that deep are nearly 100% chance of points for the team getting the turnover.  And a 3 and out from that deep is probably about 80% chance of points for the other team when they catch the punt around mid field.  I don't think that figures into the expected point math, but shoud somehow be included.

 

 

Kickoff Advantage, James Foug under appreciated

No one seems to have noticed that Foug's kickoffs were soaring hang-time galour beauties that landed right at the goal line.  And Yes, I had o scrounge to find the poor kids name!  End result is a number of perhaps unavoidable runbacks that ended well for Michigan.  8 kickoffs total:

4 touchbacks and 1 touchback eq (ran out to 26) (and if memory serves me, the 26 yarder coulda/shoulda been tackled deaper)

2 run backs to the 15.

1 run back that was fumbled and turned over at the 15

Nothing like having the best defense in the country get the chance to start creating havock at their15!  Or, better yet, our OK offense starting at their 15.  Touchbacks are safe and secure, but we picked up 20 yards and 3 points as a direct result of these kickoffs and suffered no downside.