|4 weeks 6 days ago||Yes and no||
Informative. The theme is correct as well as the general conclusion - it's very unlikely our next coach is going to have a Bo or even Carr length career at Michigan.
However, there is a logic gap in your extrapolation. A current coach who has been at a program for less than 10 years could still possibly remain at the school past the 10 year mark.
If I had to guess, I would say out of the current NCAA football coaches about a third of them will stay at their resepective program past that 10 year mark.
|8 weeks 1 day ago||Great write-up||
Love the comment about the need for medical staff to have override power.
For that matter, teammates should have override power. As part of their onboarding and at least annual team meetings, as a major college football player you should explicitly be given the charge to have the courage to intervene. If you are an OL, and you see your quarterback a few yards away stumbling around you with symptoms - man up, tell him to sit down and let the medical staff take a look at him.
|42 weeks 3 days ago||Don't forget Mike Hart as a cornerback||
Tom Lemming rated Mike Hart the Number 6 cornerback nationally that particular recruiting year.
|45 weeks 6 days ago||Pete Carroll||
I understand your point.
However, last I checked, Pete Carroll was doing pretty well for himself without Lane Kiffin, Steve Sarkisian, or Norm Chow.
|46 weeks 4 hours ago||Semi circular argument||
Offense can also help defense. It works both ways - if the offense stays on the field, the defense stays off the field.
|1 year 3 days ago||Clock Management||
The clock management at the end of the game didn't bother me. They were putting all of their eggs into one basket and they were in FG range before the fumble. A few more plays and a tying or go-ahead score and there wouldn't be enough time for Iowa to retake the lead.
The running plays of course did bother me just as much as they did you.
|1 year 4 days ago||Yes but also||
They may have given up a lot of yards, but they also forced 4 turnovers and scored 7 themselves. The defense is far from perfect, but they are not the issue here.
|1 year 1 week ago||My take||
1. Rule changes - why shoot for 100 yards rushing when it's just as easy to get 300 passing (or 400)
2. Partially related, running backs have become more of a commodity. I can't be for sure as to why, but there doesn't seem to be much separating a first rounder from a mid-round back these days. For every Adrian Peterson, there's a Trent Richardson.
|1 year 1 week ago||Good stuff as always||
Always enjoy your posts.
Interesting that the Lions had a decently similar situation that ended up not working out for them. Of course a 9-6 game is usually a lot different than a 27-23 game, NFL vs college differences, etc.
Would be interested in seeing the analysis for the Lions if you have an opportunity - Mike and Mike were critical of the decision this morning but of course when talking about the Michigan game only talked about the FG to end regulation and how Northwestern keeps finding ways to lose - I didn't hear mention of M's 4th down situation.
|1 year 1 week ago||Drive starting at NW 11||
He must not be giving the offense credit for the FG on the drive that started at the NW 11 yard line. I can't blame him - the offense didn't exactly earn that field position.
|1 year 2 weeks ago||Informative||
Really liked the first down stats. Out of those 26 first downs to only see 1 incompletion (and 3 total bad results from the passing game) - that's rather telling.
Would prefer more short passing on 1st down - tell Gardner if the first read or two isn't open to throw it away. Heck - I would rather see the chuck it deep every play offense; I can live with the occaisonal arm punt .
|1 year 2 weeks ago||Is Speilman available?||
Can we get Speilman to run our offense?
I guess that would make him the anti-Boren.
|1 year 2 weeks ago||Don't forget||
Don't forget, we had a drive start at the Neb 42 in the first half (when they punted from their 1 yard line). No points on that drive either.
|1 year 2 weeks ago||No more excuses||
3 drives starting at the opponent's 40 yard line or better . . . 3 points to show for it (from a long field goal that had a fortuitous bounce off the upright).
You can make up all the excuses you want, but this offense still has Gallon, Funchess, Gardner, Lewan, and Schofield and yet it seems completely incompetent. That incompetence is one thing against the #1 defense in the country, but against this Nebraska squad at home - there can be no excuses.
|1 year 3 weeks ago||Bball and football differences||
The Novak and Douglass contributions were undeniable. However in basketball, it is a lot more common than football to get big contributions from underclassmen. In 2010-11, a sophomore Darius Morris was a huge part of that tournament run. And last year of course, a sophomore Trey Burke (along with several freshmen) were instrumental to the team's success.
In basketball, the top prospects are often ready to go right to the NBA after a year or two of college. Football is of course very different in that respect - so although Hoke has been recruiting well, that is not going to immediately translate to on-field success.
|1 year 5 weeks ago||You are correct - about 42-43%||
Page 123. It varies from year to year. For 2012, there were 108 makes on 261 attempts - 41.4%.
Interestingly on page 122 - statistically speaking you are more likely to make a 50 yard FG in college than a 2 point conversion attempt (though the FG number has a larger problem with selection bias).
|1 year 6 weeks ago||Agree||
Whether you are an old school coach that has been through hundreds of games or just a coach potato like me who likes to look at some stats, we all implicitly or explicitly subscribe to some type of situational football strategy. Because these strategies are all based on prior experiences, by default they average everything - they work best if your team is average in every facet of the game and so is your opponent.
To make these strategies truly effective, you need to be able to make some tweaks. A 6-3 game is very different from a 50-47 game, and playing a cupcake is a little different than playing Alabama or your biggest rival (to use a few extremes).
When you have essentially zero production from your running backs, it is appropriate to tweak your game theory strategy. We can certainly argue about what exactly that might be, but presumably it would be anything other than I-form HB run between the tackles.
|1 year 6 weeks ago||Perspective||
I know the fan base is feeling down after the loss and some lingering effects of Akron and UConn.
Let's remember that our team is 5-1. That one loss was on the road in 4OT against a 4-2 team - although we had plenty of chances to win that game, it was a small miracle to be in the game at all after committing 3 1st half turnovers and falling down 11 points.
While no one is going to confuse this Michigan squad for a BCS bowl contender, we still control our own destiny in the Big Ten. No game is guaranteed, but there's really only one game that I would have difficulty imagining Michigan winning. Everyone else in the division has serious flaws that could be exposed on the right night.
|1 year 7 weeks ago||Whatever man||
Let's just say the Michigan receivers impressed me a little more than our quarterback did - though Gardner deserves credit as well.
You can quote a quarterback's stats, but it still takes somebody on the other end catching it. This isn't every throw in either case mind you but there were a few Gardner incompletions vs Akron and Connecticut that weren't any less accurate than some of the throws that were completions against Minnesota.
I did watch some NFL today, and I saw some balls touch receivers fingers and go to the turf. That is not something I recall seeing much of from Funchess and company yesterday - maybe the throw that was a bit high for Dileo.
|1 year 7 weeks ago||Gardner inaccuracy||
To be fair, I thought that Gardner was fairly inaccurate against Minnesota. However, unlike the last couple of games, our receivers actually managed to catch some of the difficult ones.
Take a look back at the game tape and you'll see more often than not that our receivers were catching balls thrown well behind them. The Funchess snag at the goal line to me typified the sort of throws Gardner had - I'm very glad those balls were thrown in spots such that the defense wasn't going to pick it off but as a fan I have to give a lot of credit to the young men catching the ball.
|1 year 11 weeks ago||All is right with the world||
This game was eerily similar to the earlier Georgia - SC game. Both games featured 2 Top 25 teams. In both cases, the lower ranked team, playing at home, got up multiple scores early and despite the opponent closing to within 34-30 was able to hold on for a 41-30 win.
|1 year 25 weeks ago||Doubt he comes back||
Good for Juwan - always a very likeable athlete. Something tells me he's not coming back - only 51 regular season minutes and 0 in the playoffs - I don't think he even dresses most nights unless there's injury/suspension.
He's known for motivational speeches - hope he has a career as a coach.
|1 year 37 weeks ago||Very good stuff||
I forgot how terribly calculated our out of conference strength of schedule was.
Gonzaga - they have one team on their schedule that is currently ranked in the AP Top 25 (Oklahoma State).
Michigan - has 9: Pitt, K State, Ohio (x2), Indiana (x2), Wisconsin, Mich St (x2)
Goes to show that some of those SOS calculations used are absolute bogus.
|1 year 42 weeks ago||Who cares about coaches? QB is where it's at||
The Manning family is pissed that they haven't been mentioned in this thread yet.
|1 year 51 weeks ago||DB has opposite reaction||
I think Dave Brandon's reaction to the story would be the opposite: hmm, I wonder how I can charge students more?
|2 years 8 weeks ago||Boise State?||
You say there are no mid-majors left that the big conferences would want, but I would not rule out Boise State so quickly. They are not quite as strong this year, but I think they will still be in the national conversation for the forseeable future.
On another note, I still don't fully understand why Notre Dame doesn't want to be in the Big Ten - it just seems to make way too much sense logically. But that could be it's own diary in and of itself.
|2 years 12 weeks ago||Still need a receiver to avoid intentional grounding||
To avoid intentional grounding, there still needs to be a receiver plausibly in the vacinity of the pass - Brady's safety in the most recent Super Bowl is a great example of this.
On two of Bama's passes, there were clearly no receivers anywhere near the pass - simply trying to avoid a sack. It was without a doubt intentional grounding in the literal sense of the phrase.
As with several other items, it by itself did not matter in the outcome of the game, but it was annoying to me as a fan.
|2 years 20 weeks ago||Follow-up on Youth comment||
The Lakers are an old team, and with trading four draft picks to Phoenix for a (relative, in basketball terms) old guy, they are not getting any younger anytime soon. The last few months, all of the pundits have been talking about how the Lakers need to get younger.
The Lakers will look for some young guy like Sessions or a bench guy like Morris to develop in lieu of those draft picks (or maybe just cross their fingers for more free-agent signings and trades to pick up some youth).
|2 years 20 weeks ago||You do know that they won the title, right?||
You use the Heat as an example of why it won't work when . . . the Heat reached the Finals in their first season with Lebron and won it all in year two.
|2 years 21 weeks ago||Informative||
Thanks for the insight - as a whole on a per at-bat basis, I think it's pretty clear that Austin Jackson has had at least as good if not a better season thus far than Curtis Granderson. Of course home runs are a slightly "sexier" stat, and that didn't hurt Curtis with the voting.
Always interesting how little these hard statistics actually factor into things like rankings and All-Star selections - which I guess is why it is going to be good to de-emphasize polls in college football and go with a selection committee.
|2 years 22 weeks ago||Would like to see median as well||
I would like to see the median as well. It's not exactly time-wasting per se - it's an excel formula that takes maybe two minutes to copy and paste to the 12 teams in the rankings?
Then again, I'm a financial analyst - I live for data. Must . . . . have . . . . .input . . . . input!
|2 years 23 weeks ago||My pet peeve:||
I hate it when people say "I seen it" - saw is not that hard to say people!
|2 years 23 weeks ago||Durant||
The real reason that people should be down on Lebron's fourth quarter performance is that Kevin Durant scored 17 in that frame. If you want to be the best of your generation, you have to do more than just your average when the game is on the line.
|2 years 24 weeks ago||* on averages||
The long snapper addition sure made our averages look funny - almost more meaningful to exclude him from the averages . . .
That would put us at 3.84 for the average of averages.
|2 years 31 weeks ago||Academically a junior||
He redshirted his first year. Academically he's a junior, but he has soph eligibility.
That's very common practice for universites to only list academic year and not eligibility.
|2 years 31 weeks ago||McLimans not listed 2013-14?||
For 2013-14, I would expect Hatch's spot to open, and fairly likely an early NBA entry (such as Burke). What about McLimans - is his spot subject to availability?
|2 years 35 weeks ago||Also this|
|2 years 36 weeks ago||Good weekend to visit||
Between it being St. Patrick's Day and one of the first really warm weekends, campus was crazy. I got a collider at Rod's Place Saturday night and there were students seemingly everywhere.
|2 years 51 weeks ago||Not getting this tournament winner argument||
I'm not getting this "the winner of a hypothetical tournament is a tournament winner, not a national champion argument".
How many other sports can you think of that DON'T have a tournament? Soccer outside the US and that's about it that I personally am aware of without doing research (Brian has argued that a tournament is not necessary here because every team plays every other team home and away and the system is actually fair).
Are you saying that all these other sports are wrong?
|2 years 51 weeks ago||Doesn't sound like a bad gig||
Doesn't sound like a bad gig - to have your first official practice with the team on location getting ready for a bowl. All expenses paid trip to a spring break-like locale learning from the best.
|2 years 51 weeks ago||NCAA basketball tournament is a big difference||
I don't think a cinderella team getting to the Elite 8 means that college football should have autobids in an 8 team playoff format.
Since the tournament expanded to 32 teams in 1975 only one team seeded 8 or lower has won the tournament (Villanova 1985). The champion is predominantly a 1, 2, or 3 seed: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/finalfourseeds. You have to go back 15 years to find a national champion that was even a 4 seed.
In other words, if the team had any real likelihood of a national title, they would be ranked high anyway and wouldn't need some crutch of an auto-bid to make it into an 8 team tournament.
|2 years 51 weeks ago||RB overrated||
I agree with the sentiment that the RB position is overrated. Especially these days with the rules so much in favor of passing attacks, the quarterback position is the clear king. The scheme and strategy/game plan is also important, which is why I believe that coaches are very underrated.
|2 years 51 weeks ago||Big East and AQ||
I personally think you need to look no further than the Big East to realize that we need to get rid of automatic qualifiers.
|2 years 51 weeks ago||3 weeks, Top 6||
I would say three weeks and Top 6 based on BCS ratings. I would consider some stipulation that any undefeated team ranked 7, 8, 9, or 10 would take the #6 team's place in the playoff.
The big question is how to fit three weeks into the schedule - ideally, you still want the players to have an opportunity to spend Christmas with families, study for and take final exams, and be in class for a new semester (granted, the current format and relatively recent changes to the system don't really seem to care about such considerations). Hopefully, the two teams with bye weeks in the first round would be playing in conference championship games anyway.
Round one (in this calendar year) would be December 12 - higher seed hosts
Round two December 19 - probably rotate these among the BCS bowl sites to take the place of the normal contest (Sugar, Fiesta, Rose, Orange). It would be a challenge to pull this off though when there's a low likelihood of being able to keep the same conference tie-in's.
The championship game would be at its regularly scheduled time in January. I could also see moving week two to New Year's.
|2 years 52 weeks ago||If I may summarize||
In summary, the article says that we shouldn't pay players because in theory, football and men's basketball players are paid already in scholarships and they are funding gymnastics and non-revenue sports. The only ones that are really exploiting the athletes are the coaches and athletic directors that make millions of dollars, and if we wanted to reign in some of the sanity than the NCAA should consider capping those salaries.
Not quite sure that I completely agree with that argument - you could take that argument a step further and say that we should be a communist country because if you work the same amount of hours as someone else, the two of you should get equal pay regardless of the marketability of your product or services.
|3 years 2 weeks ago||Just want to make sure I'm getting this right||
So, after a 67-65 game last year, you're thinking a 9-7 outcome?
Stranger things have happened, but I want to make sure you didn't mean to put a 39-37 or something.
|3 years 2 weeks ago||Link||
"The color blue coincides with the Blue Ribbon Campaign to Prevent Child Abuse.
The official Facebook event page for the Blue Out states that McLanahan's in State College will be selling "Stop Child Abuse, Blue Out Nebraska" shirts, and that 100% of proceeds made (after cost) will go to Prevent Child Abuse PA."
|3 years 2 weeks ago||Thanks for the clarification||
Couldn't OSU still redact that information though and hand it over to ESPN?
|3 years 2 weeks ago||DId he actually blow the whistle?||
If he is protected under whistleblower laws, then wouldn't Joe Paterno be as well?
Joe Pa told two guys, only to find out much later they were covering Sandusky's tracks. I wouldn't be suprised if those guys lied to Joe Pa on multiple occaisons and told him they had the situation under control.
(EDIT): my guess is that you have to actually report something to the police or an independent federal agency of some kind to get any type of whistleblower protection.
|3 years 2 weeks ago||Ehhhh||
It was months between tatgate initially breaking and Tressel leaving - not even close to five days.
|3 years 2 weeks ago||It's a good thing we don't play them this year||
The defense is good - only giving up 12 points per game.
|3 years 2 weeks ago||I second||
Let's hijack the thread and take it in a new direction.
What's everyone's ideas?
Incidentally, I'm sure I could come up with some rationale to link this to blowing up the bowl system in favor of a playoff and support my pre-existing opinions.
|3 years 2 weeks ago||Important Step||
I approve this move. Penn State has been known as a squeaky clean program. If they want to differentiate themselves in some degree from the Miami's and Ohio's of the world (or you know do the right), you show that you have no tolerance for this sort of scandal.
I hope for their sakes they can have some plan or someone new in place before signing day and give the university a little time to recover in that regard.
|3 years 2 weeks ago||Forgive my color deficiency (i.e., color blind)||
You'll have to bear with me - what was I supposed to see in the owl and colors pictures?
The Don Quixote picture is cool.
|3 years 3 weeks ago||FYI||
No way the OP could have known, but there was a board topic on this about a month ago:
Some of the posters in that thread had some insights into the Vanderbilt situation, such as this post from chitownblue2:
"Vanderbilt doesn't have an AD or a formal athletic Department. The man they list is in charge of a department that includes the Greek System, the Hospital System, and all sports.
In addition, he's the school's General Counsel, a tenured professor of law, and a Vice Chancellor."
|3 years 3 weeks ago||He can stay||
He's been around just as long as you. He has actually given us some pretty good insights (like for U of M v MSU match-ups giving us a glimpse at the other side). And he is rational, just as the user name implies.
|3 years 3 weeks ago||It's going to be a very Merry Chrismas||
Merry Christmas to the board! Looking forward to my presents from the Mathlete.
|3 years 3 weeks ago||One of them would have to win, right?||
|3 years 4 weeks ago||Would be tough but interesting||
That would be a tough, but very interesting assignment. Presumably a number of those people are still alive - they would be anywhere between their 40's and 80's (depending on exactly when they competed and how old they were when they competed). Even those that aren't alive probably have friends or relatives still around. It would be tough for several reasons:
1) These individuals could be fairly spread out by now. A lot of time has passed since the 60's. Even if they didn't move countries, the USSR is a big place and the assignment would require a hefty travel budget and a lot of research to track people down.
2) I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Bacon doesn't speak Russian. Maybe he could get a translater.
3) How do you go about disproving someone's gender short of trying to catch them in the nude?
|3 years 4 weeks ago||Apples and oranges?||
Can you really compare a conference USA schedule to a B1G schedule though? Rice played one top 25 team last year. Michigan played 5. If we had played the likes of Tulane and Central Florida every game, we might have had ten wins last year.
I suppose though a lot of those ten wins might have been 42-37 games anyway, so maybe you do have a valid point afterall.
|3 years 6 weeks ago||Full list here||
Full list here:
|3 years 6 weeks ago||Q:||
In 1998, People Magazine intended to name Rich Gannon its sexiest athlete of 1998. Due to a photographer's error, which former Michigan quaterback ended up with that year's honor instead?
A. Todd Collins
B. Tom Brady
C. Elvis Grbac
D. Jim Harbaugh
|3 years 7 weeks ago||Skeezy - Yes and No||
A little skeezy, yes, but to be fair to the horned frogs, several members of the Big East have left since they accepted that bid, so the Big East hasn't exactly held up its end of the bargain either.
|3 years 7 weeks ago||1934 team at least had a nonconference win||
That 1934 Michigan team scored 21 points the entire season!, but at least they got a nonconference win over Georgia Tech, 9-2.
EDIT: The 1932 and 1933 teams were undefeated and won national titles. How do you go from back to back national championships to arguably worst team in a century? Where was the senior leadership, Gerald Ford?
|3 years 7 weeks ago||Washington vs SEC||
Right now, I think I would take Georgia or Florida in a hypothetical game against Washington or South Florida. Georgia and Florida are going to have a lot of losses this year, but all from quality competition. Yes, they have been blown out against top 5 teams, but have they really looked that much worse in those games than Oregon did against LSU?
I also expect Notre Dame to be ranked at some point this season.
|3 years 7 weeks ago||Harsh grading scale||
You have two one-loss teams (Michigan State and Nebraska) at current grades of C+. I am a little curious to know why you have Penn State ahead of both of those at a B. I don't think that Iowa is a significantly higher quality win for Penn State as compared to OSU for MSU and Nebraska (OSU and Iowa seem even to me at present).
|3 years 7 weeks ago||Playing oddsmaker||
I assume for now we are not considering the B1G championship game or a bowl game, and we're just looking at regular season wins and losses.
My best guesses:
11+ wins: 20%
10 wins: 31%
9 wins: 37%
8 wins (or less): 12%
Purdue and Iowa should very likely be wins, that means one win amongst MSU, Illinois, Nebraska, and OSU would get us to 9 wins.
|3 years 7 weeks ago||Tossup||
Considering the IU and Purdue games should practically be guaranteed wins, they need just one other win to be bowl eligible. Penn State is not all that different from an OSU team with Braxton Miller (I assume his ankle injury is not serious, but of course you never know). I would not call Illinois a guaranteed loss for them, either if Braxton plays.
All that being said, I think it is more likely than not that OSU will make a crappy bowl game, but it is looking a lot like a coin flip.
|3 years 7 weeks ago||Commentators||
I for one, did not think the commentators were especially competent.
They called Gallon Galloway at one point, made several math errors (saying that Michigan had scored 14 unanswered points when they really meant to say 21), and made several other errors throughout the game (saying Northwestern when they meant Michigan, or vice versa).
They did not feel like the "A" team to me.
Otherwise, I agree with your post- thanks for you comments. There were a number of good insights above, as usual.
|3 years 7 weeks ago||6A? How many classes do you need?||
Off topic, but anyone else think it's ridiculous how many classes of high school football there are in some states?
Michigan has four, but apparently Oregon (a state with less than half of Michigan's population) needs 6. For fun, I did some searches on Google, and Illinois has 8 classes!
|3 years 7 weeks ago||Jabba the Hut?||
I was kinda hoping that OSU would be Jabba - they've been the big boys in town for much of the last decade, but Princess Leia (Michigan) is going to kill Jabba.
|3 years 8 weeks ago||Northwestern running backs are of little concern||
To clarify, that is Mike Trumpy, a running back. As far as I know, Persa is still expected to play next week, which is of course a much bigger deal in terms of injuries.
|3 years 9 weeks ago||Constraint versus base||
One reason why we are seeing so much success on the few screens we run is that it is a constraint play. You do have to be a little careful not to run it too much, because then defenses will be scheming against it and you will run a higher risk of fumbles, picks, and big bone jarring hits on our receivers.
It all comes down to balance. If Denard runs too many times in a game, his runs become incrementally less effective. When the defense is keying on Denard's legs, that's when you go to the playaction off QB run looks, including the WR screen from Saturday's game that could have very well been a touchdown if Lewan had connected on his block.
|3 years 9 weeks ago||Leaning 2 drunks together||
That's about the best that the remnants could hope for. If they can not get in with the big boy conferences, then they are stuck with making something hopefully a little better than the MAC or Conference USA.
|3 years 10 weeks ago||Interesting||
I was shocked how low Oklahoma is on that list. Texas A&M is listed as having 2 M fans versus the Sooner's 1.2 M - that sheds light as to why the SEC would realistically consider A&M, despite the Aggies finishing in the Top 25 all of one time this decade.
|3 years 10 weeks ago||USC got quite the jump||
USC is high considering how they played against Minnesota at home, but you're right - who do you put ahead of them at this point?
I'm sure Texas will continue to improve over the season now that they seem to have figured out who should be playing quarterback (maybe).
There's still a lot of football to be played - there's some teams (perhaps ND) with quality losses that will sneak in at the end of the Blogpoll before the season is through.
|3 years 10 weeks ago||Interesting||
The writing seems to be on the wall that the Big East as a football conference is not going to last long-term. With the potential for the Big 12 also folding, there's a potential for a lot of moving pieces - Conference USA could swap teams in and out, some remnants of the Big East and Big 12 could form a new conference - tons of possibilities.
I don't think that the Big Ten should consider Rutgers - yes, good school academically but they've had all of 2 decent years at football? We have enough teams in our league already that perenially underperform - we don't need another Northwestern or Indiana on the football field. I can't imagine that adding the New Jersey market to the Big Ten Network would really result in all that much extra money.
|3 years 10 weeks ago||Why even divisions?||
Why would the divisions have to be even? There have been plenty of examples in sports history where there has been uneven divisions (the current NL Central in MLB has 6 teams while the AL West only has 4, as one example).
|3 years 11 weeks ago||Guy in the last picture||
EDIT: Nevermind - thanks to the guy who posted immediately before I did for the info.
Anyone who who the guy in the last picture is? He was right next to Hoke when they were interviewing Hoke at the end of the game. And of course, because of the crazy hair and facial hair, I've been dying to know who he was ever since. Thanks.
|3 years 11 weeks ago||No - it is an average||
I looked up historical BCS averages on ESPN.com to confirm - http://espn.go.com/college-football/bcs/_/year/2010. Check out Auburn in the link at left from 12/5/10 standings. They were 1 in Poll A, 2 in Poll B, and 1 in the computers, and their average was .9866.
|3 years 11 weeks ago||Comments - Questions||
Obviously Sacramento State will disappear once the sample size increases.
My biggest question is, could you expand on how your system differs from Sagarin's?
Also, what is the exact meaning behind the 1.000? Is it like the BCS, and there's only going to be a team with a 1.000 rating if they are absolutely perfect, or is there always going to be one team with a 1.000 rating in your system?
Best of luck to you.
|3 years 11 weeks ago||South Florida?||
I think South Florida is too high. They gave up 500 yards to Notre Dame and only won because the Irish had 5 turnovers. It's always tough to say how many of those were good plays by the defense or bad plays by the offense, but at any rate I don't see South Florida staying that high for that long.
On another note, I never knew why people had Georgia so high to begin with. This was a team that was 6-7 last year and yet everyone still seemed to expect them to be a Top 25 team. Their coach is on the hot seat and that program hasn't done much of anything the last several years.
|3 years 12 weeks ago||mmmmm . . . at least something approaching awful||
They were at least something approaching awful. WMU started the game something like 14/15 passing and had four drives within our territory in the first half. If Jake Ryan had not tipped that pass, we probably would have been trailing at halftime.
There were several plays were they looked lost lining up.
|3 years 12 weeks ago||Higher on Floyd than Brian||
I'm higher on Floyd than Brian. It certainly would not scare me to see him on the field. I think that eventually the light will go on for him and while he's never going to all Big-Ten, he will be serviceable (for recent M secondary standards, at the very least).
As another example, I was never big on Morgan Trent, but by the time he was an upperclassmen he at least wasn't a liability. Trent actually made some plays from time to time.
|3 years 12 weeks ago||Reminds me of Brady at the combine||
This writer must be one of those guys that said not to waste a draft pick on Tom Brady because he was too slow at the combine. Seriously? It's a pocket quarterback - his job is to be a statue back there and NOT run.
NFL scouts are far from infallible. In that 2000 draft, only 13 of the first 31 picks ever became probowlers. From rounds five and on alone (including undrafted players), there were 11 future probowlers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_NFL_Draft.
|3 years 12 weeks ago||Perhaps a little surprised Denard isn't in the mix||
Perhaps a little surprised that Denard was not named a captain. I can't argue with Molk or Martin, but I probably would have thought Denard before Koger. I imagine Shoelace is a lock for captaincy next year.
|3 years 13 weeks ago||Nice job||
Indistinguishable between Michigan, Iowa, and Michigan State. I'll take that for a coaching transition year. That seems to fit with the concensus pick of 8 wins this year.
|3 years 13 weeks ago||I'm not dead!||
I'm getting better!
No you're not you'll be stone dead in a moment.
I don't want to go in the cart.
You're not fooling anyone you know.
|3 years 13 weeks ago||Boise||
|3 years 13 weeks ago||Tuesday feature suggestion||
Actually, Blogorrhea has kind of a nice ring to it.
|3 years 14 weeks ago||May have said it before - reminds me of Penn State last year||
Penn State had 6 commits last year for the longest time (check out the link for the 11-28-10 class rankings: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/big-ten-recruiting-class-rankings-11-28-10), but still ended up with 16 in their class, and actually based on averages alone was more like the 4th or 5th best class in the Big Ten - certainly a respectable finish given the small class size (http://mgoblog.com/diaries/big-ten-recruiting-class-rankings-2-6-11).
I would expect nothing less from Nebraska this year.
|3 years 14 weeks ago||HD||
Now that there's HD in our collective living rooms, I don't know that there will ever be a 200k+ stadium anywhere in the world.
Glad to see that Brandon has something up his sleeve to ensure that we're always the largest crowd watching a football game in America.
|3 years 14 weeks ago||No wonder the "I didn't know" excuse works||
No wonder the "I didn't know" excuse works with the NCAA - apparently even they don't read the bylaws. Then, you have a separate bylaw for every conceivable thing that could ever happen - whatever happened to principle based rules? Something like "institutions are allowed to provide players with food"?
|3 years 14 weeks ago||Unsound article logic||
I don't like it when analysts argue that the running back will get yards because there is little in the way of a credible passing game (or vice versa, to a lesser extent). If the passing game isn't there, you don't have balance and defenses are going to key on the running back. You might have more carries, but then again you might not be on the field long enough to have very many of those if you don't have a passing game. The YPC are going to suffer, along with wins and points that might otherwise help your case for MVP.
|3 years 14 weeks ago||QB can be a tad overrated in the BIG1||
So many on this board are really down on Ohio State this year because of the quarterback situation. Yes, they won't be as good as they were under Pryor, but let's not forget that Ohio State has had some pretty good teams that didn't exactly have much in the way of quarterback - their latest national championship season, for starters.
Also, Penn State did pretty well against us last year with a nobody at quarterback (okay, maybe not saying much but still).
Wisconsin rarely has much going for it in the quarterback department and they almost always do well enough.
Is it possible that the QB position in the Big Ten is a tad overrated?
|3 years 14 weeks ago||Strange to see folks switch from DT||
Considering that DT is historically one of the toughest positions to recruit, it's strange to see MSU switch so many people FROM DT to the offensive line.
|3 years 14 weeks ago||Turn the tables||
Maybe the U should demand that the city pay to have the Stadium street bridge repaired - it's embarrasing to have only half of the bridge in operation, and frankly it's a bit dangerous.
|3 years 15 weeks ago||Penn State's class is shaping||
Penn State's class is shaping up nicely. Very different from last year where they had all of four commits for what seemed like forever. If you take out their three lowest commits (to ND's level of 13 commits) - their averages would be very similar to Notre Dame. I wonder how solid Schutt is for them after the charades of the past few weeks in his recruitment.
Big pickup for us with Pipkins - very curious to see how the classes closes out. Hopefully another DT, 2 WRs, and either an OL or a CB in there.
|3 years 15 weeks ago||Academic standards||
I go back and forth on the academic standards. Part of that is big-time NCAA athletics is often straddling the line between amateur competition among individuals at institutions of higher learning (you know, centers of academic acheivement and all) and de facto minor league athletic departments that make bucko bucks.
The individuals who are least likely to make academic standards are most often the ones that need scholarships the most (as in it would be difficult to get a degree without the opportunity afforded by an athletic scholarship). As the Blind Side movie mentions, a majority of athletes that can't make D-I and go the JUCO route drop out.
I like the concept of allowing the kids on the team and letting them practice, but not allowing playing time until the grades come up. That seems the closest thing to a win-win in my book.
|3 years 15 weeks ago||Bright side?||
I think there is a least some possibility that this news means that Terry Richardson is firm in his commitment. Reminds me a little of the week before Pipkins committed when we said no thank you to another DT.
Of course, then I could just be reading into things WAY too much. After all, Reeves as been high on Penn State for some time.
|3 years 16 weeks ago||If anything . . .||
If anything, I would think the responsibility would more likely lie with reporting it to the NCAA. If the NCAA wants to let other schools know, so be it.
I suppose it's more of a moral issue if another coach comes up to you and asks you point blank why you didn't take a kid, is there something wrong that I should know about?
|3 years 16 weeks ago||12 games left against the Indians||
With 12 games left against the Tribe, those are the games that I worry the most about. The Tigers otherwise have an easy schedule and play in a terrible division.
I agree with most of the posters that they will likely make the playoffs where anything goes, but they will likely be exposed. With arguably the best pitcher in baseball, there's always a chance that they get hot and steal a series.
|3 years 16 weeks ago||Would like to see either Rawls or Hayes redshirt||
With four or five different guys that could be playing running back, barring a string of injuries (an unfortunately typical thing for us at RB as of late), I would like to see either Rawls or Hayes or both redshirt. Hayes needs to bulk up and neither have had as much time as the others to learn the playbook or practice handoffs with Denard.
|3 years 16 weeks ago||Are there a bunch of DEs moving inside that we don't know about?||
The only way I can explain away this coaching staff when it comes to recruiting defensive tackles is that there must be some 2011/2012 DEs that they envision moving inside (Chris Rock, Matt Godin)
|3 years 16 weeks ago||Nice french||
Ah, so that's what they mean when they say pardon my french!
|3 years 16 weeks ago||DVR my friend||
Be Kind (to yourself) - rewind.
|3 years 17 weeks ago||I'm a little surprised||
Please try to be reasonable before you neg me.
Ohio State may have lost their coach (but so did we) and its best player from last year, but our defense was absolutely atrocious last year. While I'm hopeful of marked improvement, am I the only one who thinks that a full 30 point improvement from last year's game is asking a bit much of this squad?
|3 years 17 weeks ago||The game was released in 2004||
It must be referring to Northwestern's defense from around that time.
|3 years 17 weeks ago||For those who don't know||
Gary Harris is a big-time 2012 basketball recruit from Indianapolis. #16 overall and #4 SG according to ESPN. I thought I would throw it out there since I had to look it up myself.
|3 years 17 weeks ago||ESPN would be silly not to||
Look at the schedule for that week - there's not a ton of great games that week:
It's either the first night game at Michigan stadium between the two winningest programs of all time, or the following:
Utah v USC
Mississippi State v Auburn
Penn State v Alabama
None of the other games really have that much punch to them.
|3 years 17 weeks ago||If I'm not mistaken||
I believe that both of those boys (Burbridge and Pittman) were leaning Blue, but were told to get their grades up first.
Please correct me if I'm wrong there.
|3 years 17 weeks ago||Those are the real winners of this deal||
Those making the minimum are probably the biggest winners in this new CBA.
The cap hardly changed from the previous agreement, but those at the bottom of the food chain are getting a larger percentage of the pie.
I'm sure other readers would be interested in adding a column or two for historical perspective - at least 2010 and 2009. Offhand, I want to say the absolute minimum for 2010 was low $300k's.
|3 years 17 weeks ago||The stairs||
With the stairwells in the middle, you can see the screens are a good four stories tall.
|3 years 17 weeks ago||Dude! What does mine say?||
Sweet! What does mine say?
Dude . . .
|3 years 17 weeks ago||Food Network||
The Food Network has way too much money these days.
|3 years 17 weeks ago||Link||
|3 years 17 weeks ago||Part of the problem with looking too far ahead||
I don't know that we should be too worried about what the roster looks like in 2013; that's a full two years down the road. Over a four to five year period, you have to replace your entire roster anyway (not counting the rare individuals who get a medical redshirt).
Instead of having knee jerk reactions to roster changes, I would rather see a slightly more disciplined approach. For example, where the coaches are always trying to get 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE or another WR, 2-3 OL, 2-3 DL, 2 LB, 2-3 defensive secondary in each class - then fill up the rest of the class with the best talent you can.
I think we are well on our way to a great class and we'll be fine. If we don't pick up 2 WR or another 2 DT in the 2012 class, we still have an opportunity in the 2013 class to pick up some quality guys.
|3 years 17 weeks ago||Japan, huh?||
It's somewhat ironic to play Japan in the championship given the recent soccer match between the two countries . . .
|3 years 18 weeks ago||That seems about right||
The predictions seem reasonable.
Michigan is on the up and up, but I have a hard time seeing us win the division given our starting point on defense and a brand new offensive system. Ohio State is on the decline, but they will still be formidable until there's more evidence to the contrary. State is not going to be able to scratch off another winning lottery ticket. I wouldn't be shocked to see Penn State or Iowa be strong contenders, but more than one team should be able to find a chink in their armor to exploit.
|3 years 18 weeks ago||Still four years left in his career||
If there's one year that is better than others to miss with an injury, it's your true freshman season. Now he gets a redshirt year and still has an opportunity to play for four years. There will be plenty of time for him now to read the playbook and watch video of his conference opponents and I'm sure he'll be ready to contribute in fall 2012.
|3 years 18 weeks ago||10 year deal||
It's incredible to me that this deal (1) got done so soon, considering how many lockouts in the last 20 years have ended in a substantial number of missed games and (2) how it gives a CBA for the next TEN years!
We should have the owners and NFLPA working on raising the debt ceiling this summer; they would have reformed Social Security, Medicare, and the tax code by now.
|3 years 18 weeks ago||At the end of the day||
Agreed. At the end of the day, it matters little where players came from. The entire recruiting class can come from Delaware for all I care as long as they're great players.
I don't want to seem like I'm bashing the poster though - the diary is still interesting.
|3 years 18 weeks ago||Deepest apologies||
Sorry board - I honestly searched and didn't find it before I posted.
|3 years 19 weeks ago||Goes to show||
Goes to show how much thought actually went into that listing, but hey whatever.
|3 years 21 weeks ago||Unfortunate name||
Furbush is a rather unfortunate name to have. That has to make for a rough middle school experience.
|3 years 22 weeks ago||USA losing to Lithuania||
I know the team played an opponent a whole year older, and this is not the point of the original post, but why in the world is the USA losing to Lithuania? Let alone by 29 points?
It used to be that college players from the USA could compete with anyone in the world . . .
|3 years 23 weeks ago||More OL plz||
With all the OL visitors above, you can see how that position is still a priority for the coaches - I imagine they are still looking for 5-6 from this class in total.
I wonder what our chances of picking up a commitment today are? I'm feeling greedy.
|3 years 25 weeks ago||Less about "fit" for the team, more about a coach for the future||
I don't think they should be looking to get a coach that fits this team. This team is short on building blocks for the future and has too many overpaid role players. Rip is on the decline, and I have a hard timing seeing anyone making an All-Star team anytime soon.
I would much rather have a coach for the future and start bringing in players to fit that guy's team then try to fit a coach to the underachieving team currently playing at the Palace.
|3 years 25 weeks ago||Speculation||
I suppose that last section from Brian begs the question as to what sort of penalties that school down south might get from the NCAA.
I hate the typical NCAA penalties of postseason bans and reduced scholarships, because it tends to hurt most those who had nothing to do with the violations to begin with. Then again, I don't know that there is much you can do to Maurice Clarett and Troy Smith beyond vacating wins and moving championship trophies etc. into storage.
On another note - anyone think that Fickle will eventually have the interim label removed and be the next head coach?
|3 years 26 weeks ago||Sooner is better than later, later better than never||
Sooner > later.
I would much rather have commitments early on in the process and run the risk of a stand-out player regressing as opposed to waiting and risk having to scramble at the last minute at whatever talent might be left. Plus, by having so many commits now there is this real luxury for the coaching staff of being able to spend as much time and energy as they want on the handful of guys that they really want to fill out the rest of the class.
Yes, there are going to be guys that just starting playing ball in high school that are going to come out the woodwork and have breakout senior seasons, but those guys are going to be relatively few. The 6'9" junior on the other hand isn't exactly going to get shorter.
In short, I see few drawbacks, and I'm excited about the recent recruiting successes.
|3 years 26 weeks ago||East / West||
East / West. It works for every other sport. So what if Detroit is in the Western conference in one sport and the Eastern conference in another? Who cares? It works.
Wisconsin is east of some Big Ten teams, and west of some others. I pretty sure they will still live.
|3 years 26 weeks ago||I have been influenced by the Big House||
Just about every recruit that visits talks about being influenced by the Big House.
|3 years 26 weeks ago||After the Flood Disaster Restoration||
You'll want to talk to John Walker at After the Flood Disaster Restoration - 734-476-1466 or 888-211-1270.
|3 years 29 weeks ago||Awesome stuff||
Awesome stuff - I would love for something like this to be incorporated into "Useful Stuff" on an annual basis. Perhaps even have historical perspectives as well at some point.
|3 years 29 weeks ago||I didn't think Darius Morris would leave early either||
Just to play devil's advocate, I really didn't think Darius Morris would leave after two years just to maybe be a second round draft choice, either.
|3 years 29 weeks ago||The ability to be selective||
A very encouraging start, indeed - keep up the good work coaching staff!
Still a ways to go in this class, especially on the offensive side of the ball. There's all kinds of time now to focus on the guys they really want , and the coaching staff can afford to be very selective outside of the postions of need (DT, QB, outside WR, OL, and perhaps safety).
|3 years 29 weeks ago||Offensive linemen simply not drafted as frequently?||
Is it possible that there is a lower proportion of offensive linemen drafted (not taking into account star ranking for a minute here)? I suppose that would infer that more offensive linemen in the NFL are undrafted free agents (I don't think it is the case that there are more lineman per starter position in college than other positions). That could potentially skew the above analysis some.
|3 years 30 weeks ago||That's some loyalty there||
Jim Kelly hasn't played pro ball in a number of years, but he still chooses to stick around the same city he played in. That's a fair bit of loyalty - some cities would not look too kindly on someone who could never win the big one. I can't imagine Donovan McNabb ever choosing to live in Philly again, for example.
|3 years 30 weeks ago||Hope Prince A falls to the Lions||
As long as Detroit doesn't draft a WR in the first round (or QB or RB), then I will view the draft as a success.
|3 years 31 weeks ago||Never celebrate Festivus with Mike Martin||
Never celebrate Festivus with Mike Martin - it will never end, because you won't be able to best him in the feats of strength.
|3 years 31 weeks ago||No Michigan in the promo video?||
No winged helmets in the promo video?
|3 years 31 weeks ago||Still torn||
As much as I hate Ohio State and sweatervest / wine cooler guy, there's still part of me that just wants to beat him at his own game. You know, give 'em the ol' John Cooper special.
As much as I want to see him gone, it would also suck for him to leave with a 9-1 mark against Michigan.
Unless, of course, he takes OSU football program with him to some degree but let's be honest: the NCAA enforcement as of late has been more bark then bite.
|3 years 32 weeks ago||Newman!||
Oh great - we get to hear about another Boren for the next 5 years.
(Not exactly new information, since he committed in December - it's new information to me though).
|3 years 32 weeks ago||Defense and secondary especially is key||
"Woolfolk has done very little." "Floyd is behind in his recovery compared to where Woolfolk is."
Anyone have a good feel for when Woolfolk and Floyd will be game ready? I would think it would be nice to have a couple healthy months under their belts before the opener so they can really get used to game speed again. I may just be bored, but how much should I be worrying about their health at this point?
|3 years 33 weeks ago||John Elway||
I heard John Elway is so competitive that he once lost a game of pool to a teammate. The next day he bought a new table and trashed the other one. You have to be a little crazy to win, I guess. See Rick Reilly's article for evidence: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/inside_game/magazine/life_of_reilly/news/2002/08/13/life_of_reilly/
|3 years 33 weeks ago||Agreed - the right call||
Whether or not how the refs got to the call made or any sense or not, it was still the right call.
The goalie was sitting on the puck and it only went in the net after Michigan players took about three or four good whacks at the goalie.
For a few minutes after the call, I kept thinking how if it had happened the other way around and Minnesota-Duluth had a goal waved off I'm sure there wouldn't be any Michigan fans saying the refs got the call wrong.
|3 years 45 weeks ago||Hoke era||
Hoke has a bit of a reputation now of being a guy that turns around programs. So, I hope that continues. The staff absolutely needs our support. There's rarely slam dunks in coaching searches anymore these days, and it seems like no-names have just as much success as established names. I hope he can bring some fresh energy and perspective, while at the same time find a way to keep the recruiting and offensive momentum going from the old regime.
The choice is what it is now, so let's show some support. GO BLUE!
|3 years 45 weeks ago||What I'm thinking||
One thing I'm going to imply is that we all used to think one way when Carr was the coach, but having the perspective of time, our views may be shifting a little. Maybe it's okay to be a little boring, as long as you aren't making the opposing offense look too exciting.
|3 years 47 weeks ago||Umm||
No, he's not a good coach because he can't retain and develop any talent on the defensive side of the ball and has a defense that ranks 110th in the nation.
I'm sorry, but it's not like if you were to go back in time and have Carr recruit three more 3 or 4 star defensive backs we would have gone to the Rose Bowl this year.
|3 years 47 weeks ago||Purple Stuff - I'm honestly confused||
This was RR's third season. It's not his first, and it isn't his second - his third. When does blaming Lloyd stop? 2015? How is it a woeful lack of talent in the upper classes when there's at least 8 guys who could be playing defensive back this year that aren't? How much of that can you honestly blame on Lloyd Carr and what he did four years ago?
Some of these "washouts" were guys that saw the field in 2008 or 2009 when we had something a little more closely resembling a defense, FYI. I expect coaches to develop players and keep them on the team. Are you going to blame Lloyd Carr that Ezeh plays the exact same as he did his freshman year? Or blame Lloyd when RR's top recruits never see the field?
I don't pick on freshmen - you're right, it's not their fault there's no one ahead of them on the roster. And it isn't their fault that the coaching staff can't help them to improve a lick over the course of a 13 game season, or with a month to prepare for a bowl game.
|3 years 47 weeks ago||Carr defense||
You ignore the fact that Carr recruited a number of DBs in 2007 (not to mention the 2008 recruits). This recruiting thing tends to happen in cycles. Unless you're in the SEC and skirt the roster rules, you want to average about 20 players per class, which means on average about 0.75 recruits per starting position per year (20 / [22 + kicker and punter] = .83). So, on average, you're looking at about 3 defensive backs per class, dependent on certain factors such as scheme. So, 2004-2006 is not exactly holy crap no recruiting. Carr should have gotten one or two more (and / or not converted so many of them to other positions). Look at RR and offensive line recruits. We're projecting to get 4 this recruiting class because we only had one last class. Does that mean RR was smoking something last year because we only took one offensive line recruit in the last class?
RR had some bad luck (Woolfolk injury), but considering all the young men that could have been playing defensive back this year but didn't, at some point it stops becoming a coincidence or luck and starts to show the true nature of RR and defense (Brandon Smith, Turner, Dorsey, Witty, Vlad, Warren, and Cissoko). There's your cupboard right there - not exactly bare so much as the new tenant cleaned it out himself.
|3 years 47 weeks ago||Nice seats||
Those are nice seats on that plane. If there's a little TV in the back of the seat in front of me, I think a couple gardner snakes would be worth some posh accomodations like that. Normal plane seats are uncomfortable and ugly.
|3 years 47 weeks ago||Good point||
FWIW, they only lost to Texas Tech by 7.
Otherwise, good points. I didn't see those similarities before. The only problem I see is you're comparing a program with essentially no history and no expectations to the winningest program in college football history. There are more expectations for us, and maybe there should be - I doubt there are too many kids growing up Baylor Bears fans who just can't wait to play football there.
|3 years 47 weeks ago||With RR, with JH?||
Would you be bold enough to look into your crystal ball and speculate some regarding what the recruiting class might look like if RR stays side-by-side with if JH comes in? I'm sure a lot of readers would be very interested in such a post.
|3 years 47 weeks ago||Here's a new rule||
Here's a new rule - if you're trophy has wheels on it, it sucks. You made it too big and ugly.
|3 years 47 weeks ago||Fresh start||
I think it will be good to have a fresh start with (presumably and hopefully) Harbaugh.
There will likely be a transition period, and we will probably lose some players, but something tells me that in year 3 of Harbaugh we won't have a defense that's 100th+ in all categories, we will have some special teams with which to speak of, and we won't by losing to Ohio State or our bowl opponent by 30+ points.
|3 years 47 weeks ago||Perhaps should be its own thread||
Maybe this would be better suited for its own thread, but I'm curious as to why Harbaugh would want to coach the 49ers?
Go to your alma mater and coach at a level that you've had success with, or leave for a league that might not even have a season next year with the collective bargaining agreement talks looming, coaching in a terrible stadium (the team might very well move to LA because it's that bad), and coaching in a league where the vast majority of NCAA crossover coaches flame out spectacularly.
The difference in money isn't that great (ex: Pete Carroll's wikipedia page - $4.5 million in 2007 with USC, now has a $33 million, 5 year deal with Seahawks). Either way you're spending all your free time coaching anyway, so it's not like an extra couple million is going to make any lick of difference - not to mention the NFL premium isn't going to mean much if no NFL team wants you 5 years from now (see flameout above).
|3 years 47 weeks ago||No offense||
No offense, but we when you lose by 38 points, it's hard to consider anything a "bright spot."
|3 years 47 weeks ago||Comment I made to the family||
At one point in the first quarter (when the offense was doing WELL mind you) I noted that people not named Denard had 7 rushes for no yards for Michigan, and Denard had 3 runs for 50 yards. Eventually defenses adjust and defend the QB run and make you beat them with something else. Quite simply, we have not been able to do that this season against halfway decent teams.
|3 years 47 weeks ago||They still use pens?||
They still use pens? No wonder the current economic model of newspapers is unsustainable!
|3 years 47 weeks ago||Still can't believe he was fined for that||
Still can't believe Suh was fined for that one. If you start acting like a running back, I'm going to start treating you like one. If you don't slide as a QB and you get hurt passed the line of scrimmage, it's your own fault.
|3 years 47 weeks ago||Unlike half the board||
Unlike half the board, I'm only going to post this once. There have been a lot of posts as of late that are duplicate in nature to other posts. These posts are often full of twenty replies about how the original post was redundant - a classic case of irony. Once someone points it out, LET IT GO.
Also, I think I've read someone calling for a 1000 point minimum to start a new thread about 1,000 times this season.
|3 years 47 weeks ago||Anecdotal evidence||
I personally don't like the presumption that one factor (turnovers or otherwise) is responsible for X% of wins. There are many instances where I would say no one factor was responsible for a win or a loss, but the sum of a couple factors.
Let's take this last Michigan season. I don't think it's a coincidence that we had a positive turnover margin to start the season, then once we hit the meat of the Big Ten season, the TOM went south along with our winning percentage. While we are at, we could look at turnover margin in 2008 and 2009 and how neither the TOM or winning percentage was exactly where we wanted it to be. I would take that as very strong anecdotal evidence that turnover margin is pretty important. However, TOM doesn't take into account a generally crappy offense (2008) or defense (2010 especially), so there are other factors that play into a win or loss.
Granted, I didn't take mountains of actual data into account or put a nice percentage on it so take my analysis for what it's worth.
Also, I would like to know how a TOM of 5 or 7 in the tables immediately above can't be considered significant, especially when there's games when some teams don't even have 10 possessions.
|3 years 47 weeks ago||Semis||
I predict 7 conference wins, then the semis for the B1G tourney and the NIT.
|3 years 48 weeks ago||Effect on free agents?||
I'm curious if a permanent move outdoors for Minny would be a negative factor when it comes to luring free agents. Then again, perhaps not - I don't remember anyone saying they wouldn't go to Green Bay or New England because they play outdoors in cold climates, for example. I suppose other factors are more prevalent - namely money and whether the team has any realistic playoff aspirations.
|3 years 48 weeks ago||Turnovers||
Goes to show that just about anything good can happen if you're plus 3 in turnover margin for the day . . . if Blue could be +3 every game, we would be in a BCS bowl next year.
|3 years 48 weeks ago||Lions need their running game on all cylinders||
With none of their first three string quarterbacks at full health, the Lions will need big plays from the running game, and likely a little help from Logan / special teams and Suh / defense.
Not saying by any means that it can't be done. I really hope Stafford can stay healthy next year and beyond - there's a good young core of players there with long-term potential for sure.
|3 years 48 weeks ago||Agreed||
I think it's very possible to get one against either Iowa or MSU. I personally think that Notre Dame will be tougher than either of those two teams. We won't have the benefit of playing a team without a quarterback for half the game, they'll be in the second year in their system instead of their first, and they have always recruited well and have talent.
With the favorable schedule, my two goals for next year are: 9 wins (including the 13th game, the bowl game) and no blow-out losses (nothing more than 10 points.)
|3 years 48 weeks ago||No offense||
No offense, but I thought the OP was pretty clear.
The state of the roster is the state of the roster right now, taking into account talent we have right now available to play next year (perhaps slightly confusing because much of the evidence for evaluating the current talent is to look at historical performance or projected future performance) and the recruits who as of right now have given a verbal commit to Michigan. There's a couple spots where the OP speculates - for example, if we pick up that 4th offensive line recruit we're looking for with this class, then the OL would bump up to A-.
|3 years 48 weeks ago||Excellent post||
Personally, I view quarterback as an A currently, with a move to A+ if we can get one in this class.
The more I think about your rankings and the reasoning behind them, the more I agree. Here's some speculation on how these rankings could change in the relatively near future:
The running backs weren't able to consistently take pressure off Denard this year (especially when it mattered), but there's a number of them there with talent. I'll go out on a limb and say that the running backs will be healthier next year and that will make a difference in the on-the-field performance. So, I'll bump them up to a B, contingent on D Hart signing.
If we get a TE to sign, I would bump up the tight ends to B-. If we sign one and Ricardo Miller changes positions to TE, then a B or B+ could be warranted. If we get that fourth offensive lineman in this class, the O-line goes up to A- in my book.
Anyone bold enough to take a stab at the defense?
|3 years 49 weeks ago||Chart request||
Any chance we can get you to edit and add a summary chart by player at the end a la Brian?
|3 years 49 weeks ago||It's not about time of possession||
It's not about time of possession so much as the number of defensive drives, the number of defensive plays, and the rest time in between those defensive drives. If the opposing offense has 16 drives, they're going to generally score more points than if they only had 8 drives.
Still, if you were to take our defense from this year and pair it with more of a Wisconsin offense, we would not have had a good defense by any stretch of the imagination. Maybe the 70th or 80th best defense as opposed to the 100 something (obviously depends on which defensive measure you're talking about).
|3 years 49 weeks ago||This is going to be the all-pedigree team||
Now we just need to scout every high school player even loosely related to a member of the Dream Team I roster or an NBA player from the 90's and this squad could be complete.
|3 years 50 weeks ago||What? No Legends-Leaders trophy?||
I think I need two Kleenex to mop up my own sarcasm.
Seriously though they need to take the trophies down to one name. If you can't find one name, make it generic and spare us from something stupid that I'm going to have to explain to my mother five times.
|3 years 50 weeks ago||There are||
There are . . . more descriptive thread titles you could have used.
|3 years 52 weeks ago||Wild guess as to why then does not equal now||
"Apparently 7-5 looked better five weeks ago than it does now." 7-5 but lose to Ohio State by 30 is much different than 7-5 but lose to Ohio State by 2 scores.
Everyone knows that the last regular season game is the most important game of the year (just ask our neighbors to the south if you don't believe me). And, we are all anxious to notch a W against them (and our in-state rivals as well).
|4 years 1 hour ago||Talent and coaching||
I would not be so quick to separate talent and coaching - we are talking about a head coach in his third year with the program, and it is the coaching staff's job to recruit, retain, and develop talent.
Granted, you do have a point that the coaches aren't the ones on the field playing the game, so you cannot assign 100% of the performance responsibility to the coaches. There are other factors, but over a long period of time coaching is a huge chunk.
|4 years 4 hours ago||Good analysis||
I certainly wouldn't mind someone expanding this analysis further. I don't know that there's a single example of a coach taking over a powerhouse, being terrible for the first three years, and then winning a national championship later in his career.
I looked at the AP National Champions for the past 20 years (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_football_national_championships_in_NCAA_Division_I_FBS):
Many of these coaches are listed above, and I won't reiterate some of the original posters comments. None of those gentleman had anywhere near the rough transition that RR has gone through thus far. Not 100% definitive of course to say that RR can't, but it does cast some doubt.
One thing I did notice looking at these coaching records (esp. Stallings of Alabama and Erickson of Miami), is that past performance is not indicative of future success. Some of these most successful coaches came from relative obscurity before they hit it big. This leads me to say that if and when RR is replaced, we don't have to have narrow blinders and only be going after Harbaugh and Les Miles - who among us honestly heard of Tressel before he was hired by OSU?
(EDIT: Actually, I just had to go back one more year to see an example comparable to RR's - take Colorado, the 1990 AP National Champions - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_McCartney#Head_coaching_record; this guy started off with 7 wins TOTAL through 3 years and won a national championship in year 9)
|4 years 2 days ago||Still has some playing days left||
I hope he has some long playing days ahead of him still in the NFL. That would be a terrific story to see him back in the athletic department in some capacity someday, and I would welcome him with open arms.
|4 years 3 days ago||Chicken or the Egg?||
Do you have no interest in the NFL because of its product or because of the Lions (lack of) success?
I think it's no coincidence that of the major sports, baseball and the NFL take a backseat for me to college football, NCAA basketball, and the usually the NBA as well. The Lions and Tigers have had some incredibly bad stretches during my as of now short lifetime.
|4 years 4 days ago||Coworkers asked me what it would take to win||
My coworkers asked me this week what it would take to win.
I thought, well maybe if Pryor breaks his leg in practice this week we have a shot. But, I think OSU would run the ball and Tresselball us to a long, slow, painful death. If someone can also convince the offense that we are losing by three scores to start the game then I think we win.
|4 years 5 days ago||Yellow uniforms||
Maybe we should wear all yellow uniforms, make the ball into a hot dog, and turn the end zones into giant buns. The referees could wear all radioactive green and be relish.
|4 years 1 week ago||Selling the farm||
Sometimes you have to just take some chances and sell the farm - thus the two onside kick attempts. Considering we were dying a slow death anyway, I don't have a problem with bringing some extra pressure defensively. Don't make it predictable mind you.
Probably wouldn't have resulted in a win considering we lost by twenty, but I'm willing to roll the dice since this defense can't get appreciably worse.
|4 years 1 week ago||I feel like a puzzle at the back of a cereal box||
Have you ever seen those puzzles on the back of cereal boxes? What is the next number in the following sequence? 3, 5, 7 . . .
|4 years 2 weeks ago||Yes it was tipped||
Yes, it was tipped. But, it was also thrown well behind the intended receiver. So the point about it being a poor throw still stands.
|4 years 2 weeks ago||Not reading into it to much||
I'm not reading into the stats too much just yet - not against Purdue anyway.
Yes, the stats were pretty good against Purdue. However, this was also against a team that was 104th in total offense coming into the game, was missing just about every offensive player of consequence due to injury, and was limited due to inclement weather. Still, it was an encouraging performance by the defense, and that without Mike Martin and Jonas Mouton.
Let's see how we do next week before we get too overly exuberant.
|4 years 2 weeks ago||Who's available for Wisc at running back won't matter much||
Wisconsin is like Iowa and Michigan State - they always have several guys who can run the football. Iowa, for example, was missing several of their running backs for the season and still had success on the ground.
The key will be getting a few stops on those third and shorts that Wisc will find themselves in. I'm sure the Badgers will try to be working the playaction and passes to the running backs as well to keep us off balance.
I agree it will be close - Wisconsin isn't explosive enough to blow you out - but they can capitalize off mistakes and grind it out to the end.
|4 years 2 weeks ago||Not a bad strategy||
Going for two and the win tends to work well for me in video games if I'm playing as a bad team because I know I won't be able to stop the opponent's offense. Also, I can see in real life at least lining up for a 2pt conversion and see if you're opponent blinks and commits a mistake.
All in all, I stand by RR's decision. While many of us weren't sure if the defense would ever get a stop, the D only needed to stop one play. Thankfully, you don't get two or three tries from the 5 or 10 yard-line for a 2 point conversion, or we may have been screwed.
|4 years 2 weeks ago||Difference between elite and good defense||
One thing I picked up from that is the spread between NCAA defenses.
For example, there's only a handful of elite defenses. Look at Iowa and Illinois lines. By shaving 30 YPG off Illinois, they improve 29 spots. Do the same to Iowa, and they improve only 3 spots. It's much more crowded in the middle of the pack. The difference between being top 5 in anything in the NCAA (like, I don't know, say Michigan in the top 5 in offensive yardage) is a huge advantage.
By the way, I would expect the opposite end of the spectrum to also hold true (cough Michigan defense). I would be interested to see how much opposing offenses have improved by virtue of having played us.
Very interesting, worthwhile analysis.
|4 years 2 weeks ago||Central Florida?||
I would take Michigan over Central Florida. The Knights are 7-2, and they're only opponents of any real consequence (both losses mind you) came against 6-3 BCS conference teams. Which, by the way, Michigan is a 6-3 BCS conference team.
You probably aren't getting your hopes up because of the Penn State debacle, which I can understand. In that case, you should be ranking the teams that defeated Central Florida - NC State and Kansas State. I would also take your current weak dropouts, Baylor and Florida State, over Central Florida.
|4 years 3 weeks ago||Will likely throw off opponents||
I hope that Oregon's team for their own sake practices a lot on that floor to get used to it. I think that floor will throw off a lot of visiting opponents and be a little bit of an advantage for the home team - you really can't see the lines out there.
I agree with the other posters that it is an interesting concept, but certainly not something for Michigan anytime soon.
|4 years 3 weeks ago||Mindest of a recruit (speculation)||
If I was a recruit, I would be a lot more concerned about how good a team is going to be in 2 or 3 years when I'm getting playing time then how a team is playing right now.
To that end, I probably would have been concerned whether RR would still have a job until this win, though I wouldn't blame a recruit for waiting for win 7 before making up their mind.
Also to that first point, I would have to be pretty excited about the future of this offense. Plus, I would be thinking Michigan's defense will improve with some experience.
Lastly, I would be looking at Florida and Texas and how much dropoff they've had without Tebow and McCoy and I would be a little hesitant to read too far into the current success of some current Top 25 teams. Alabama for instance - when Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, and McElroy are gone, will they have a dropoff too?
|4 years 3 weeks ago||Can Braylon score 3 TDs in a loss?||
Would like to see Braylon do well, but only of course in a losing effort today. Go Lions!
|4 years 3 weeks ago||Kellen Moore?||
You just stomped Hawaii. Congratulations. What, you want a cookie or something?
|4 years 3 weeks ago||Griese said the same during the broadcast||
During the broadcast, Brian Griese said the stadium was the loudest it had been since 1997.
|4 years 3 weeks ago||Remember kick/punt returns in 2008?||
Compared to 2008's kick and punt returning performance, Gallon has not been as bad. That one mistake per game you talk about is something that I will take for now.
By the way, Denard makes plenty of mistakes too - part of the difference with Denard is that the lineman recover his fumbles. Both Denard and Gallon are secure in their jobs right now.
You would have a better case to gripe about turnovers in general (5) as opposed to picking on on one guy with one mistake all day.
|4 years 3 weeks ago||For the record, Vincent Smith played well today||
In one of his better performances, Vincent Smith took 13 carries for 73 yards - a 5.6 average. And, while this is due to the fact that Illinois was keying on Denard, Smith was our leading rusher while Denard only managed 3.3 YPC.
|4 years 3 weeks ago||Flashbacks to last year||
Roundtree getting tackled inside the five, and on a different drive getting stuffed on 1st and 2nd and goal had me nervous - gave me brief flashbacks to last year. Give the kids credit, they punched it in (7 of 7 in the red zone = awesome!). Tate also looked much better than his last OT appearance. Fun to see them grow up from last year.
|4 years 3 weeks ago||Drivechart = novel||
Looks like the teams played two games today. Bizarre that the ESPN drive chart shows an "end of game" for each quarter. Haven't seen that one before.
|4 years 3 weeks ago||Given the choice, I'd rather have the sweet||
I know you're trying to be an optimist, but I'd rather have the sweet. I'd rather go back to being crushed by USC in the Rose Bowl every other year.
The rest of the post is on - and I will second that MGoBlog makes Michigan football a more satisfying experience.