Recent Comments

Curious how this might impact record keeping.

As I understand it today, the medical redshirt is more exception basis.  If the guy played, you have to file for the medical redshirt.

Under this proposal, you would probably have to submit fairly detailed game logs to substantiate who played each game.  Maybe I am overthinking it and this data is already being collected and reported on to the NCAA.

If the foul is intentional (other than end of game situations), then the team that is fouled can pick anyone on the floor to take the free throws.  They already do this for technical fouls.  Soccer does it for penalty kicks.

That way, there is no advantage to hacking Andre or Deandre Jordan.

That big spike right near the end of Timmy's career made me smile.  Then sigh, then smile again.

1990 Colorado - Missouri.  Google it - ESPN had something about the 25th anniversary earlier this year.  Colorado would go on to win the National Championship that year.

The refs were brutal on that final drive:

- They stopped the clock with seven seconds left to clear the pile when they had no business doing that

- Colorado got 5 downs (essentially did 2nd down twice - the down marker and scoreboard never moved; a fan in the stands had a heart attack and that confused everyone)

- It wasn't clear on the replay that Colorado even crossed the plane of the goal line on the winning score

Wish they would have talked more about the text messages in the article.  When the equipment guys are texting each other and saying that Tom has directed them to deflate balls that is much more persuasive evidence for me than any of the stats I have seen so far.

Informative.  The theme is correct as well as the general conclusion - it's very unlikely our next coach is going to have a Bo or even Carr length career at Michigan.

However, there is a logic gap in your extrapolation.  A current coach who has been at a program for less than 10 years could still possibly remain at the school past the 10 year mark.

If I had to guess, I would say out of the current NCAA football coaches about a third of them will stay at their resepective program past that 10 year mark.

Tom Lemming rated Mike Hart the Number 6 cornerback nationally that particular recruiting year.  

Offense can also help defense.  It works both ways - if the offense stays on the field, the defense stays off the field.  

They may have given up a lot of yards, but they also forced 4 turnovers and scored 7 themselves.  The defense is far from perfect, but they are not the issue here.

Always enjoy your posts.

Interesting that the Lions had a decently similar situation that ended up not working out for them.  Of course a 9-6 game is usually a lot different than a 27-23 game, NFL vs college differences, etc.  

Would be interested in seeing the analysis for the Lions if you have an opportunity - Mike and Mike were critical of the decision this morning but of course when talking about the Michigan game only talked about the FG to end regulation and how Northwestern keeps finding ways to lose - I didn't hear mention of M's 4th down situation.

Really liked the first down stats.  Out of those 26 first downs to only see 1 incompletion (and 3 total bad results from the passing game) - that's rather telling.

Would prefer more short passing on 1st down - tell Gardner if the first read or two isn't open to throw it away.  Heck - I would rather see the chuck it deep every play offense; I can live with the occaisonal arm punt .

Don't forget, we had a drive start at the Neb 42 in the first half (when they punted from their 1 yard line).  No points on that drive either.

The Novak and Douglass contributions were undeniable.  However in basketball, it is a lot more common than football to get big contributions from underclassmen.  In 2010-11, a sophomore Darius Morris was a huge part of that tournament run.  And last year of course, a sophomore Trey Burke (along with several freshmen) were instrumental to the team's success.

In basketball, the top prospects are often ready to go right to the NBA after a year or two of college.  Football is of course very different in that respect - so although Hoke has been recruiting well, that is not going to immediately translate to on-field success.

Whether you are an old school coach that has been through hundreds of games or just a coach potato like me who likes to look at some stats, we all implicitly or explicitly subscribe to some type of situational football strategy.  Because these strategies are all based on prior experiences, by default they average everything - they work best if your team is average in every facet of the game and so is your opponent.  

To make these strategies truly effective, you need to be able to make some tweaks.  A 6-3 game is very different from a 50-47 game, and playing a cupcake is a little different than playing Alabama or your biggest rival (to use a few extremes).

When you have essentially zero production from your running backs, it is appropriate to tweak your game theory strategy.  We can certainly argue about what exactly that might be, but presumably it would be anything other than I-form HB run between the tackles.

Let's just say the Michigan receivers impressed me a little more than our quarterback did - though Gardner deserves credit as well.  

You can quote a quarterback's stats, but it still takes somebody on the other end catching it.  This isn't every throw in either case mind you but there were a few Gardner incompletions vs Akron and Connecticut that weren't any less accurate than some of the throws that were completions against Minnesota.  

I did watch some NFL today, and I saw some balls touch receivers fingers and go to the turf.  That is not something I recall seeing much of from Funchess and company yesterday - maybe the throw that was a bit high for Dileo.

This game was eerily similar to the earlier Georgia - SC game.  Both games featured 2 Top 25 teams.  In both cases, the lower ranked team, playing at home, got up multiple scores early and despite the opponent closing to within 34-30 was able to hold on for a 41-30 win.  

I forgot how terribly calculated our out of conference strength of schedule was.

Gonzaga - they have one team on their schedule that is currently ranked in the AP Top 25 (Oklahoma State).

Michigan - has 9: Pitt, K State, Ohio (x2), Indiana (x2), Wisconsin, Mich St (x2)

Goes to show that some of those SOS calculations used are absolute bogus.

I think Dave Brandon's reaction to the story would be the opposite: hmm, I wonder how I can charge students more?

To avoid intentional grounding, there still needs to be a receiver plausibly in the vacinity of the pass - Brady's safety in the most recent Super Bowl is a great example of this.  

On two of Bama's passes, there were clearly no receivers anywhere near the pass - simply trying to avoid a sack.  It was without a doubt intentional grounding in the literal sense of the phrase.

As with several other items, it by itself did not matter in the outcome of the game, but it was annoying to me as a fan.

You use the Heat as an example of why it won't work when . . . the Heat reached the Finals in their first season with Lebron and won it all in year two.

I would like to see the median as well.  It's not exactly time-wasting per se - it's an excel formula that takes maybe two minutes to copy and paste to the 12 teams in the rankings?

Then again, I'm a financial analyst - I live for data. Must . . . . have . . . . .input . . . . input!

The real reason that people should be down on Lebron's fourth quarter performance is that Kevin Durant scored 17 in that frame.  If you want to be the best of your generation, you have to do more than just your average when the game is on the line.

He redshirted his first year.  Academically he's a junior, but he has soph eligibility.

That's very common practice for universites to only list academic year and not eligibility.

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/how-valuable-are-returning-starters-and-what-positions-are-they-most-valuable

I'm not getting this "the winner of a hypothetical tournament is a tournament winner, not a national champion argument".  

How many other sports can you think of that DON'T have a tournament?  Soccer outside the US and that's about it that I personally am aware of without doing research (Brian has argued that a tournament is not necessary here because every team plays every other team home and away and the system is actually fair).

Are you saying that all these other sports are wrong?

I don't think a cinderella team getting to the Elite 8 means that college football should have autobids in an 8 team playoff format.

Since the tournament expanded to 32 teams in 1975 only one team seeded 8 or lower has won the tournament (Villanova 1985).  The champion is predominantly a 1, 2, or 3 seed: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/finalfourseeds.  You have to go back 15 years to find a national champion that was even a 4 seed.

In other words, if the team had any real likelihood of a national title, they would be ranked high anyway and wouldn't need some crutch of an auto-bid to make it into an 8 team tournament.

I personally think you need to look no further than the Big East to realize that we need to get rid of automatic qualifiers.

In summary, the article says that we shouldn't pay players because in theory, football and men's basketball players are paid already in scholarships and they are funding gymnastics and non-revenue sports.  The only ones that are really exploiting the athletes are the coaches and athletic directors that make millions of dollars, and if we wanted to reign in some of the sanity than the NCAA should consider capping those salaries.

Not quite sure that I completely agree with that argument - you could take that argument a step further and say that we should be a communist country because if you work the same amount of hours as someone else, the two of you should get equal pay regardless of the marketability of your product or services. 

http://sports.yahoo.com/top/news?slug=ycn-10402539

"The color blue coincides with the Blue Ribbon Campaign to Prevent Child Abuse.

The official Facebook event page for the Blue Out states that McLanahan's in State College will be selling "Stop Child Abuse, Blue Out Nebraska" shirts, and that 100% of proceeds made (after cost) will go to Prevent Child Abuse PA."

If he is protected under whistleblower laws, then wouldn't Joe Paterno be as well? 

Joe Pa told two guys, only to find out much later they were covering Sandusky's tracks.  I wouldn't be suprised if those guys lied to Joe Pa on multiple occaisons and told him they had the situation under control.

(EDIT): my guess is that you have to actually report something to the police or an independent federal agency of some kind to get any type of whistleblower protection.

The defense is good - only giving up 12 points per game.

I approve this move.  Penn State has been known as a squeaky clean program.  If they want to differentiate themselves in some degree from the Miami's and Ohio's of the world (or you know do the right), you show that you have no tolerance for this sort of scandal.

I hope for their sakes they can have some plan or someone new in place before signing day and give the university a little time to recover in that regard.

No way the OP could have known, but there was a board topic on this about a month ago:

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/how-much-athletic-directors-make-2011

Some of the posters in that thread had some insights into the Vanderbilt situation, such as this post from chitownblue2:

"Vanderbilt doesn't have an AD or a formal athletic Department. The man they list is in charge of  a department that includes the Greek System, the Hospital System, and all sports.

In addition, he's the school's General Counsel, a tenured professor of law, and a Vice Chancellor."

Merry Christmas to the board!  Looking forward to my presents from the Mathlete.

That would be a tough, but very interesting assignment.  Presumably a number of those people are still alive - they would be anywhere between their 40's and 80's (depending on exactly when they competed and how old they were when they competed).  Even those that aren't alive probably have friends or relatives still around.  It would be tough for several reasons:

1) These individuals could be fairly spread out by now.  A lot of time has passed since the 60's.  Even if they didn't move countries, the USSR is a big place and the assignment would require a hefty travel budget and a lot of research to track people down.

2) I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Bacon doesn't speak Russian.  Maybe he could get a translater.

3) How do you go about disproving someone's gender short of trying to catch them in the nude?

Full list here:

http://btn.com/2011/10/11/big-tens-best-lbs-2000-2010/

A little skeezy, yes, but to be fair to the horned frogs, several members of the Big East have left since they accepted that bid, so the Big East hasn't exactly held up its end of the bargain either.

Right now, I think I would take Georgia or Florida in a hypothetical game against Washington or South Florida.  Georgia and Florida are going to have a lot of losses this year, but all from quality competition.  Yes, they have been blown out against top 5 teams, but have they really looked that much worse in those games than Oregon did against LSU?

I also expect Notre Dame to be ranked at some point this season.

I assume for now we are not considering the B1G championship game or a bowl game, and we're just looking at regular season wins and losses.

My best guesses:

11+ wins: 20%

10 wins: 31%

9 wins: 37%

8 wins (or less): 12%

Purdue and Iowa should very likely be wins, that means one win amongst MSU, Illinois, Nebraska, and OSU would get us to 9 wins.

I for one, did not think the commentators were especially competent.  

They called Gallon Galloway at one point, made several math errors (saying that Michigan had scored 14 unanswered points when they really meant to say 21), and made several other errors throughout the game (saying Northwestern when they meant Michigan, or vice versa).  

They did not feel like the "A" team to me.

Otherwise, I agree with your post- thanks for you comments.  There were a number of good insights above, as usual. 

I was kinda hoping that OSU would be Jabba - they've been the big boys in town for much of the last decade, but Princess Leia (Michigan) is going to kill Jabba. 

One reason why we are seeing so much success on the few screens we run is that it is a constraint play.  You do have to be a little careful not to run it too much, because then defenses will be scheming against it and you will run a higher risk of fumbles, picks, and big bone jarring hits on our receivers.

It all comes down to balance.  If Denard runs too many times in a game, his runs become incrementally less effective.  When the defense is keying on Denard's legs, that's when you go to the playaction off QB run looks, including the WR screen from Saturday's game that could have very well been a touchdown if Lewan had connected on his block.

I was shocked how low Oklahoma is on that list.  Texas A&M is listed as having 2 M fans versus the Sooner's 1.2 M - that sheds light as to why the SEC would realistically consider A&M, despite the Aggies finishing in the Top 25 all of one time this decade.

The writing seems to be on the wall that the Big East as a football conference is not going to last long-term.  With the potential for the Big 12 also folding, there's a potential for a lot of moving pieces - Conference USA could swap teams in and out, some remnants of the Big East and Big 12 could form a new conference - tons of possibilities.

I don't think that the Big Ten should consider Rutgers - yes, good school academically but they've had all of 2 decent years at football?  We have enough teams in our league already that perenially underperform - we don't need another Northwestern or Indiana on the football field.  I can't imagine that adding the New Jersey market to the Big Ten Network would really result in all that much extra money.

EDIT: Nevermind - thanks to the guy who posted immediately before I did for the info.

Anyone who who the guy in the last picture is?  He was right next to Hoke when they were interviewing Hoke at the end of the game.  And of course, because of the crazy hair and facial hair, I've been dying to know who he was ever since.  Thanks.

Obviously Sacramento State will disappear once the sample size increases.

My biggest question is, could you expand on how your system differs from Sagarin's?

Also, what is the exact meaning behind the 1.000?  Is it like the BCS, and there's only going to be a team with a 1.000 rating if they are absolutely perfect, or is there always going to be one team with a 1.000 rating in your system?

Best of luck to you.

They were at least something approaching awful.  WMU started the game something like 14/15 passing and had four drives within our territory in the first half.  If Jake Ryan had not tipped that pass, we probably would have been trailing at halftime.

There were several plays were they looked lost lining up. 

This writer must be one of those guys that said not to waste a draft pick on Tom Brady because he was too slow at the combine.  Seriously?  It's a pocket quarterback - his job is to be a statue back there and NOT run.

NFL scouts are far from infallible.  In that 2000 draft, only 13 of the first 31 picks ever became probowlers.  From rounds five and on alone (including undrafted players), there were 11 future probowlers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_NFL_Draft. 

Indistinguishable between Michigan, Iowa, and Michigan State.  I'll take that for a coaching transition year.  That seems to fit with the concensus pick of 8 wins this year.

Boise State

Nebraska

Wisconsin

Mississippi State

USC

Texas

Penn State had 6 commits last year for the longest time (check out the link for the 11-28-10 class rankings: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/big-ten-recruiting-class-rankings-11-28-10), but still ended up with 16 in their class, and actually based on averages alone was more like the 4th or 5th best class in the Big Ten - certainly a respectable finish given the small class size (http://mgoblog.com/diaries/big-ten-recruiting-class-rankings-2-6-11).

I would expect nothing less from Nebraska this year.

No wonder the "I didn't know" excuse works with the NCAA - apparently even they don't read the bylaws.  Then, you have a separate bylaw for every conceivable thing that could ever happen - whatever happened to principle based rules?  Something like "institutions are allowed to provide players with food"?

So many on this board are really down on Ohio State this year because of the quarterback situation.  Yes, they won't be as good as they were under Pryor, but let's not forget that Ohio State has had some pretty good teams that didn't exactly have much in the way of quarterback - their latest national championship season, for starters.

Also, Penn State did pretty well against us last year with a nobody at quarterback (okay, maybe not saying much but still).

Wisconsin rarely has much going for it in the quarterback department and they almost always do well enough.

Is it possible that the QB position in the Big Ten is a tad overrated?

Maybe the U should demand that the city pay to have the Stadium street bridge repaired - it's embarrasing to have only half of the bridge in operation, and frankly it's a bit dangerous.

I go back and forth on the academic standards.  Part of that is big-time NCAA athletics is often straddling the line between amateur competition among individuals at institutions of higher learning (you know, centers of academic acheivement and all) and de facto minor league athletic departments that make bucko bucks.

The individuals who are least likely to make academic standards are most often the ones that need scholarships the most (as in it would be difficult to get a degree without the opportunity afforded by an athletic scholarship).  As the Blind Side movie mentions, a majority of athletes that can't make D-I and go the JUCO route drop out.

I like the concept of allowing the kids on the team and letting them practice, but not allowing playing time until the grades come up.  That seems the closest thing to a win-win in my book.

If anything, I would think the responsibility would more likely lie with reporting it to the NCAA.  If the NCAA wants to let other schools know, so be it. 

I suppose it's more of a moral issue if another coach comes up to you and asks you point blank why you didn't take a kid, is there something wrong that I should know about?

With four or five different guys that could be playing running back, barring a string of injuries (an unfortunately typical thing for us at RB as of late), I would like to see either Rawls or Hayes or both redshirt.  Hayes needs to bulk up and neither have had as much time as the others to learn the playbook or practice handoffs with Denard.

Ah, so that's what they mean when they say pardon my french!

Please try to be reasonable before you neg me.

Ohio State may have lost their coach (but so did we) and its best player from last year, but our defense was absolutely atrocious last year.  While I'm hopeful of marked improvement, am I the only one who thinks that a full 30 point improvement from last year's game is asking a bit much of this squad?

Gary Harris is a big-time 2012 basketball recruit from Indianapolis.  #16 overall and #4 SG according to ESPN.  I thought I would throw it out there since I had to look it up myself.

I believe that both of those boys (Burbridge and Pittman) were leaning Blue, but were told to get their grades up first.

Please correct me if I'm wrong there.

With the stairwells in the middle, you can see the screens are a good four stories tall.

The Food Network has way too much money these days.

I don't know that we should be too worried about what the roster looks like in 2013; that's a full two years down the road.  Over a four to five year period, you have to replace your entire roster anyway (not counting the rare individuals who get a medical redshirt).

Instead of having knee jerk reactions to roster changes, I would rather see a slightly more disciplined approach.  For example, where the coaches are always trying to get 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE or another WR, 2-3 OL, 2-3 DL, 2 LB, 2-3 defensive secondary in each class - then fill up the rest of the class with the best talent you can. 

I think we are well on our way to a great class and we'll be fine.  If we don't pick up 2 WR or another 2 DT in the 2012 class, we still have an opportunity in the 2013 class to pick up some quality guys.   

The predictions seem reasonable.

Michigan is on the up and up, but I have a hard time seeing us win the division given our starting point on defense and a brand new offensive system.  Ohio State is on the decline, but they will still be formidable until there's more evidence to the contrary.  State is not going to be able to scratch off another winning lottery ticket.  I wouldn't be shocked to see Penn State or Iowa be strong contenders, but more than one team should be able to find a chink in their armor to exploit.

It's incredible to me that this deal (1) got done so soon, considering how many lockouts in the last 20 years have ended in a substantial number of missed games and (2) how it gives a CBA for the next TEN years!

We should have the owners and NFLPA working on raising the debt ceiling this summer; they would have reformed Social Security, Medicare, and the tax code by now. 

Sorry board - I honestly searched and didn't find it before I posted.

Furbush is a rather unfortunate name to have.  That has to make for a rough middle school experience. 

With all the OL visitors above, you can see how that position is still a priority for the coaches - I imagine they are still looking for 5-6 from this class in total.

I wonder what our chances of picking up a commitment today are?  I'm feeling greedy.

I suppose that last section from Brian begs the question as to what sort of penalties that school down south might get from the NCAA.

I hate the typical NCAA penalties of postseason bans and reduced scholarships, because it tends to hurt most those who had nothing to do with the violations to begin with.  Then again, I don't know that there is much you can do to Maurice Clarett and Troy Smith beyond vacating wins and moving championship trophies etc. into storage.

On another note - anyone think that Fickle will eventually have the interim label removed and  be the next head coach? 

East / West.  It works for every other sport.  So what if Detroit is in the Western conference in one sport and the Eastern conference in another?  Who cares?  It works. 

Wisconsin is east of some Big Ten teams, and west of some others.  I pretty sure they will still live.

You'll want to talk to John Walker at After the Flood Disaster Restoration - 734-476-1466 or 888-211-1270.

Just to play devil's advocate, I really didn't think Darius Morris would leave after two years just to maybe be a second round draft choice, either.

Is it possible that there is a lower proportion of offensive linemen drafted (not taking into account star ranking for a minute here)?  I suppose that would infer that more offensive linemen in the NFL are undrafted free agents (I don't think it is the case that there are more lineman per starter position in college than other positions).  That could potentially skew the above analysis some.

As long as Detroit doesn't draft a WR in the first round (or QB or RB), then I will view the draft as a success.

No winged helmets in the promo video?  

Lame.

Oh great - we get to hear about another Boren for the next 5 years.

(Not exactly new information, since he committed in December - it's new information to me though).

I heard John Elway is so competitive that he once lost a game of pool to a teammate.  The next day he bought a new table and trashed the other one.  You have to be a little crazy to win, I guess.  See Rick Reilly's article for evidence: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/inside_game/magazine/life_of_reilly/news/2002/08/13/life_of_reilly/

Hoke has a bit of a reputation now of being a guy that turns around programs.  So, I hope that continues.  The staff absolutely needs our support.  There's rarely slam dunks in coaching searches anymore these days, and it seems like no-names have just as much success as established names.  I hope he can bring some fresh energy and perspective, while at the same time find a way to keep the recruiting and offensive momentum going from the old regime.  

The choice is what it is now, so let's show some support.  GO BLUE!

No, he's not a good coach because he can't retain and develop any talent on the defensive side of the ball and has a defense that ranks 110th in the nation. 

I'm sorry, but it's not like if you were to go back in time and have Carr recruit three more 3 or 4 star defensive backs we would have gone to the Rose Bowl this year. 

You ignore the fact that Carr recruited a number of DBs in 2007 (not to mention the 2008 recruits).  This recruiting thing tends to happen in cycles.  Unless you're in the SEC and skirt the roster rules, you want to average about 20 players per class, which means on average about 0.75 recruits per starting position per year (20 / [22 + kicker and punter] = .83).  So, on average, you're looking at about 3 defensive backs per class, dependent on certain factors such as scheme.  So, 2004-2006 is not exactly holy crap no recruiting.  Carr should have gotten one or two more (and / or not converted so many of them to other positions).  Look at RR and offensive line recruits.  We're projecting to get 4 this recruiting class because we only had one last class.  Does that mean RR was smoking something last year because we only took one offensive line recruit in the last class? 

RR had some bad luck (Woolfolk injury), but considering all the young men that could have been playing defensive back this year but didn't, at some point it stops becoming a coincidence or luck and starts to show the true nature of RR and defense (Brandon Smith, Turner, Dorsey, Witty, Vlad, Warren, and Cissoko).  There's your cupboard right there - not exactly bare so much as the new tenant cleaned it out himself.

FWIW, they only lost to Texas Tech by 7. 

Otherwise, good points.  I didn't see those similarities before.  The only problem I see is you're comparing a program with essentially no history and no expectations to the winningest program in college football history.  There are more expectations for us, and maybe there should be - I doubt there are too many kids growing up Baylor Bears fans who just can't wait to play football there.

Here's a new rule - if you're trophy has wheels on it, it sucks.  You made it too big and ugly.

Maybe this would be better suited for its own thread, but I'm curious as to why Harbaugh would want to coach the 49ers?

Go to your alma mater and coach at a level that you've had success with, or leave for a league that might not even have a season next year with the collective bargaining agreement talks looming, coaching in a terrible stadium (the team might very well move to LA because it's that bad), and coaching in a league where the vast majority of NCAA crossover coaches flame out spectacularly. 

The difference in money isn't that great (ex: Pete Carroll's wikipedia page - $4.5 million in 2007 with USC, now has a $33 million, 5 year deal with Seahawks).  Either way you're spending all your free time coaching anyway, so it's not like an extra couple million is going to make any lick of difference - not to mention the NFL premium isn't going to mean much if no NFL team wants you 5 years from now (see flameout above).

At one point in the first quarter (when the offense was doing WELL mind you) I noted that people not named Denard had 7 rushes for no yards for Michigan, and Denard had 3 runs for 50 yards.  Eventually defenses adjust and defend the QB run and make you beat them with something else.  Quite simply, we have not been able to do that this season against halfway decent teams.

Still can't believe Suh was fined for that one.  If you start acting like a running back, I'm going to start treating you like one.  If you don't slide as a QB and you get hurt passed the line of scrimmage, it's your own fault.

I personally don't like the presumption that one factor (turnovers or otherwise) is responsible for X% of wins.  There are many instances where I would say no one factor was responsible for a win or a loss, but the sum of a couple factors.

Let's take this last Michigan season.  I don't think it's a coincidence that we had a positive turnover margin to start the season, then once we hit the meat of the Big Ten season, the TOM went south along with our winning percentage.  While we are at, we could look at turnover margin in 2008 and 2009 and how neither the TOM or winning percentage was exactly where we wanted it to be.  I would take that as very strong anecdotal evidence that turnover margin is pretty important.  However, TOM doesn't take into account a generally crappy offense (2008) or defense (2010 especially), so there are other factors that play into a win or loss.  

Granted, I didn't take mountains of actual data into account or put a nice percentage on it so take my analysis for what it's worth.

Also, I would like to know how a TOM of 5 or 7 in the tables immediately above can't be considered significant, especially when there's games when some teams don't even have 10 possessions.

I'm curious if a permanent move outdoors for Minny would be a negative factor when it comes to luring free agents.  Then again, perhaps not - I don't remember anyone saying they wouldn't go to Green Bay or New England because they play outdoors in cold climates, for example.  I suppose other factors are more prevalent - namely money and whether the team has any realistic playoff aspirations.

With none of their first three string quarterbacks at full health, the Lions will need big plays from the running game, and likely a little help from Logan / special teams and Suh / defense.

Not saying by any means that it can't be done.  I really hope Stafford can stay healthy next year and beyond - there's a good young core of players there with long-term potential for sure.

No offense, but I thought the OP was pretty clear.  

The state of the roster is the state of the roster right now, taking into account talent we have right now available to play next year (perhaps slightly confusing because much of the evidence for evaluating the current talent is to look at historical performance or projected future performance) and the recruits who as of right now have given a verbal commit to Michigan.  There's a couple spots where the OP speculates - for example, if we pick up that 4th offensive line recruit we're looking for with this class, then the OL would bump up to A-.

Any chance we can get you to edit and add a summary chart by player at the end a la Brian?

Thanks!

Now we just need to scout every high school player even loosely related to a member of the Dream Team I roster or an NBA player from the 90's and this squad could be complete.

There are . . . more descriptive thread titles you could have used.

I would not be so quick to separate talent and coaching - we are talking about a head coach in his third year with the program, and it is the coaching staff's job to recruit, retain, and develop talent.  

Granted, you do have a point that the coaches aren't the ones on the field playing the game, so you cannot assign 100% of the performance responsibility to the coaches.  There are other factors, but over a long period of time coaching is a huge chunk.

I hope he has some long playing days ahead of him still in the NFL.  That would be a terrific story to see him back in the athletic department in some capacity someday, and I would welcome him with open arms.

My coworkers asked me this week what it would take to win.

I thought, well maybe if Pryor breaks his leg in practice this week we have a shot.  But, I think OSU would run the ball and Tresselball us to a long, slow, painful death.  If someone can also convince the offense that we are losing by three scores to start the game then I think we win.

Sometimes you have to just take some chances and sell the farm - thus the two onside kick attempts.  Considering we were dying a slow death anyway, I don't have a problem with bringing some extra pressure defensively.  Don't make it predictable mind you.  

Probably wouldn't have resulted in a win considering we lost by twenty, but I'm willing to roll the dice since this defense can't get appreciably worse.

Yes, it was tipped.  But, it was also thrown well behind the intended receiver.  So the point about it being a poor throw still stands.

Wisconsin is like Iowa and Michigan State - they always have several guys who can run the football.  Iowa, for example, was missing several of their running backs for the season and still had success on the ground. 

The key will be getting a few stops on those third and shorts that Wisc will find themselves in.  I'm sure the Badgers will try to be working the playaction and passes to the running backs as well to keep us off balance.

I agree it will be close - Wisconsin isn't explosive enough to blow you out - but they can capitalize off mistakes and grind it out to the end.