IU, Kevin Wilson -- Wilson has known Rodriguez for over a decade. When Wilson was the offensive coordinator at Northwestern, he and Randy Walker went down to Clemson to learn the spread from Rodriguez (see: Northwestern 54, Michigan 51). Since then, Rodriguez has been close with Bob Stoops and his staff. So it's no surprise that Wilson, in his first HC job, hired two available Rodriguez assistants with Big Ten experience. Smith and Frey are, IMO, the two Rodriguez assistants most deserving of AQ-conference jobs. Both the QBs and OL made noticeable progress during their tenure.
Pitt, Todd Graham -- Graham was an assistant of Rodriguez for three years at West Virginia. He has already worked on the same staff as Magee and Gibson. Graham and Dews never worked together, but it is pretty obvious that Dews would come with high recommendations from people that Graham trusts (Rodriguez, Magee, Gibson, etc.).
had both a dominant rushing attack and an offense that produced two NFL QBs. But that offense didn't really fit with Chait's thesis, so it was conveniently left out.
we're not hiring him as DC or HC, so I'm not concerned about his failures there. this guy coached up a couple All-American LBs at Ohio State and a couple all-Big Ten DEs at Minnesota. however, we need more than one recruiter (Gibson) on the defensive side of the ball. Robinson and Tall are not good recruiters.
there is no "one way" to compare conferences. winning % is good, but overall quality of opponents and meaningful wins are also very important metrics. the Big East has a vastly superior bowl winning % to the Big Ten over the past 4 years, but that's not because the top of the Big East is vastly superior to the top of the Big Ten.
is where I see player development on defense.
Graham is playing like an All-American. Martin and Van Bergen are on track to being great by the time they leave. Banks and Sagesse are mid-level talents who have developed into competent back-ups. Campbell is still extremely raw but has shown improvement throughout the year.
Patterson is a bust, but a 100% success rate is unrealistic.
Clemson is more deserving. 2 of their 3 losses were by a combined 7 points to top 10 teams (GT, TCU). They also have wins over Miami (7-3) and BC (7-3).
my new "if I controlled the universe" coaching changes...
Rodriguez - HC/OC/QB (same)
Magee -- OC/RB/TE (what he did at WVU)
Smith - QB (same)
Frey -- OL (same)
New hire -- WR/SR/TE
Robinson -- DC/hybrids (same)
Tall -- DL (same)
New hire -- LB
New hire -- safeties
Gibson -- CBs (reduced role)
New hire -- recruiting coordinator
but I did go in and look at the numbers of upperclassmen for a few teams that are in the top 10 in both scoring and total defenses...
Florida - 22 (#1 scoring, #2 total)
Ohio State - 22 (#4 scoring, #6 total)
TCU - 21 (#3 total, #5 scoring)
Bama - 18 (#4 total. #6 scoring)
Texas - 17 (#1 total, #8 scoring)
Florida... has arguably the best defense in the country, which should not be a surprise given their high levels of both talent and experience.
Alabama and Texas... have a little less experience, but compensate with elite talent and elite defensive coaches.
TCU... lacks top end recruiting (though probably under-appreciated), but compensates with experience and top-notch coaching.
I have higher expectations for Ezeh and Mouton than I do for Williams, which makes their play even more disappointing (and makes me angry at Jay Hopson). However, I do have an expectation of baseline competence for RS-Sophs and older. They do not have to be game-changing playmakers, but they should be able to diagnose simple plays (cover the RB on the wheel route!) and tackle ball-carries in front of them.
Banks, Sagesse, and Woolfolk are examples of players who meet my minimum expectations of 3rd-5th year players without greatly exceeding them. None of them are or will likely be stars, but all bring a baseline level of competence.
It tells me this coach's comments are less fake than others'. He's not blowing sunshine up my ass trying to convince me Johnson is better than a former Louisiana defensive POY, college All-American, and current NFL player.
Iowa did not reach its steady-state of defensive excellence until year 4 of Ferentz's tenure. While Ferentz inherited players as unheralded as the ones he recruited, it took time for Iowa's defense to gel. He needed the right kind of defensive players for his system and everyone to have experience in that system. It was not an instant success.
'97 - 13.3 ppg
'98 - 26.1 ppg
-------------- Ferentz hired
'99 - 31.5 ppg
'00 - 27.5 ppg
'01 - 21.5 ppg
'02 - 19.7 ppg
'03 - 16.2 ppg
'04 - 17.6 ppg
'05 - 20.0 ppg
'06 - 20.7 ppg
'07 - 18.8 ppg
'08 - 13.0 ppg
'09 - 15.8 ppg
I prefer "points per appearance" over the NCAA's ranking by scoring percentage, which equates field goals and TDs. Here are a few notable teams with their current ranking and points per red zone appearance.
3. Wisconsin - 5.83
9. Cinci - 5.68
14. Oregon - 5.60
22. Oklahoma - 5.43
23. Texas - 5.37
35. USC - 5.13
53. Iowa - 4.89
92. Michigan - 4.26
96. Ohio State - 4.22
97. Alabama - 4.18
101. Florida - 4.11
I'm not sure what these numbers tell us regarding offensive style and red zone efficiency. I wish our numbers were better, but we seem to be doing better than Ohio State, Alabama, and Florida. Of course, I also wish we had their defense.
West Virginia
'09 -- 2.27 (likely to fall w/ Pitt, Cinci)
'08 -- 1.90
'07 -- 2.96
'06 -- 3.27
'05 -- 2.33
'04 -- 2.13
'03 -- 1.98
'02 -- 2.03
Michigan
'09 -- 2.03 (likely to fall w/ Wisc, OSU)
'08 -- 1.42
'07 -- 2.07
'06 -- 2.15
'05 -- 2.12
'04 -- 2.16
'03 -- 2.65
'02 -- 2.08
'01 -- 1.78
I use a slightly different methodology...
- all FBS games included
- only offensive scores (no def or ST)
- no over-time
- pick-6s and off fumbles returned for TDs are scored negatively against the off
I've calculated an adjusted offensive points per drive for Michigan as well as several other conference and national peers.
My adjustments are...
- only off. scores are counted (no def. or ST scores)
- pick-6s / fumble return TDs are counted *against* the off.
- overtime scoring is excluded (OT inflates off. stats)
Also, I kept in the highs and lows.
'09 -- 2.03 ppd (excludes DSU since they were a JV team)
'08 -- 1.42
'07 -- 2.07 (includes ASU since they were not a JV team)
'06 -- 2.15
'05 -- 2.12
'04 -- 2.16
'03 -- 2.65 (Navarre!)
'02 -- 2.08
'01 -- 1.78
I'm guessing that after facing the Wisconsin and Ohio State defenses, our overall offensive efficiency will drop below 2 ppd.
I think you're taking total points scored and then dividing by offensive drives. However, not all of the points scored can be attributed to the offense. For example, you're crediting the Michigan offense for the Burgess pick-6 and the Woodley fumble return TD in the '06 Notre Dame game. The offense actually scored 2.4 ppd, not 3.4 ppd.
Is there any reason for Mouton to bite on the RB with Graham crashing down the line and Kovacs standing next to him, ready to clean up if Graham whiffs?
I almost threw up yesterday watching this play.
even if the recruits reside outside the coach's recruiting area. as a coach you own your position, and you cannot just hope that someone else on the staff lands you quality players from their region. no one commits to a school without a strong relationship with his position coach.
it's been 2 years with Hopson, and LB play has gotten much worse. yeah, we did stupid schematic things under Szabo/English like cover 170-lb slot receivers with 240-lb linebackers. but when not faced with match-up nightmares, our LBs made plays.
right now i'm seeing LBs either take themselves out of position (largely incorrect reads, not scheme) or completely whiff on tackles. and even Szabo the "poor recruiter" brought in better talent than Hopson.
This bodes well for our deep, experienced, and highly talented secondary.
Adam Weber -- 4th yr starter
Ricky Stanzi -- 3rd yr
Terrelle Pryor -- 3rd yr
Ben Chappell -- 3rd yr
Tate Forcier -- 2nd yr
Scott Tolzien -- 2nd yr
Kirkeith Nichousins -- 2nd yr
Penn State is the only team that takes a series hit at QB. Purdue and Northwestern always seem to have an adequate QB somewhere on the roster. And I'm not sure how much worse Illinois' offense can get, even with the loss of Juice Williams.
#11 Expected points - offense
#11 Expected points - defense
#11 Offense - season+
#11 Defense - season+
#7 ST - all - per game
#11 Team - turnovers
I'm detecting a large degree of suck.
there is simply a lot less offensive talent on their schedule.
UL-Monroe... bad
UTEP... bad
Wyoming... bad
Colorado... bad
Texas Tech...
Graham Harrell -- graduated
Michael Crabtree -- NFL
Oklahoma...
Sam Bradford -- injured
Jermaine Gresham -- injured
Juaquin Iglesias -- NFL
4/5 Oklahoma OL -- graduated/NFL
Missouri...
Chase Daniel -- graduated
Jeremy Maclin -- NFL
Chase Coffman -- NFL
Recent Comments
IU, Kevin Wilson -- Wilson has known Rodriguez for over a decade. When Wilson was the offensive coordinator at Northwestern, he and Randy Walker went down to Clemson to learn the spread from Rodriguez (see: Northwestern 54, Michigan 51). Since then, Rodriguez has been close with Bob Stoops and his staff. So it's no surprise that Wilson, in his first HC job, hired two available Rodriguez assistants with Big Ten experience. Smith and Frey are, IMO, the two Rodriguez assistants most deserving of AQ-conference jobs. Both the QBs and OL made noticeable progress during their tenure.
Pitt, Todd Graham -- Graham was an assistant of Rodriguez for three years at West Virginia. He has already worked on the same staff as Magee and Gibson. Graham and Dews never worked together, but it is pretty obvious that Dews would come with high recommendations from people that Graham trusts (Rodriguez, Magee, Gibson, etc.).
had both a dominant rushing attack and an offense that produced two NFL QBs. But that offense didn't really fit with Chait's thesis, so it was conveniently left out.
should not be ranked. they barely escaped a very bad Vanderbilt team.