Overall, I think it was a shock. The shock was not Michigan being the one to pull through to the CWS, but more so that Oregon State and UCLA got beat in their own backyards. Michigan gets half credit for the OSU beatdown in Corvallis (other half to Creighton) and full credit for the UCLA beatdown. I think Michigan's second half of the season also tempered expectations. Looking just at UCLA, the overall national number 1 seed, 6 of the past 7 years the overall number 1 made it through to the CWS - on that stat, combined with OSU a strong team in it's own regional, I'd say a decent gambler would have said Michigan had substantially less than 10% chance of making it through....probably less than 5%. If totally random, they had a 12.5% chance. Add in the poor performance of most cold winter schools for at least the last 20 years, and I think most people would be highly surprised, and yes, at least pretty close to shocked.
The dominance by warm winter states is probably secure, but you wonder if the trend toward indoor baseball facilities might keep a few more of the good players in the midwest. I really don't buy into the program having been gutted by a mini-scandal...I guess you could say the loss of Middaugh hurt, but I really think by the mid to late 80's, the trend of warm winter schools dominating hit a tipping point. And some of those bigger states, Texas, California, and Florida, the quality teams seem to go all the way down to community colleges. Also, in addition to good programs in warm winter states, people were moving to those states too. I'd say the gutting of manufacturing in the midwest was a big part of the shift too....lots of good players coming from people with jobs in the factories which now are far fewer.
Whatever the case, this is a helluva nice surprise. Go Blue.
Beilein was a gem, but I do think he did a smart thing to energize his life with a new challenge. As a system guy he was always going to have a hard time getting the one-or-two-and-done type recruits. Today's reality is you can't expect the top talent to hang around for four years. Seems like Howard might have a good shot at recruiting top talent and not having any issues with the reality that for the top talent, your college program is a stepping stone. And it's not that Beilen wasn't able to adjust to that....I don't think he would stand in the way of a kid's career, it's just that as a system guy, he wouldn't naturally attract the top talent, which seeks a platform to show their skills, not necessarily to seek to show what a great x's and o's scheme the program has. Yeah, Beilen is well loved for what he did for M basketball, but it feels like there's a great chance for something new and exciting. I am more excited at possibility of Howard than anyone else, and however the results come in, I think it's great to have a former player as a coach. We know about Harbaugh and football, but it would be interesting to see stats on how many current coaches in all the sports were former players for the school.
Nice. Wish I had been smart enough when I was in college to get it done early. Hard to say what he's plotting, but my read (admittedly based on little) isn't that he's returning to the football field, but maybe another sport (lacrosse ?), or maybe he snared a good assistant or intern position as a trainer to do while doing his kinesiology ? Whatever....sounds like a happy guy with degree in hand....Nice.
Is it just me or does Poole need to put on some beef if his goal is NBA...if Europe, no biggie, he's fine. I always figured Poole's hairstyle was so people thought he was as tall as Caris LeVert, just as he truly was as lean. I am not buying the "Brazdeikis has peaked" theories....he's shown enough that NBA is realistic, but c'mon he could easily well outperform his current season (like consistent 20 - 25 point games) and become a better player. Lastly, Poole is a free spirit...can easily see why he wants his next adventure, even if maybe a year too soon. Wish them all well. Stoked to see how Livers develops....
Yeah, no banners but an excellent season. Based on the final 10 or 15 games of the reg season, including BIG tourney, I was emotionally prepared for a loss in the round of 32, and figured sweet 16 was the bogey. Put them at the midpoint of the 8 losers in sweet 16, and you're the 12th best team in the tourney......not too shabby. That said, it was a painful game to watch, so painful I can't even claim to have watched the whole thing ! And while I usually don't take too much satisfaction from other BIG teams wins, the Purdue win over Tennessee put enough of a smile on my face that the Michigan loss didn't send me to Tennessee based distillates. Go Blue.
Avenatti is toast...will definitely lose his license, but may not go to jail. That's because many lawyers act as shakedown artists, throwing a few crumbs to their clients. In this case, my guess is Avenatti's big mistake was not foreseeing the potential of police recorded phone calls. I don't know for sure, but suspect that if the calls were only recorded by Nike itself, they would be unusable as evidence....so Avenatti knew what he was doing was a crime and a violation of attorney ethics rules, but didn't have enough imagination to think that police recorded phone calls could be arranged on such short notice. The rapid police action on recording suggests either well connected, kick ass lawyers for Nike, or the possibility Nike was already cooperating with Feds on the alleged problems at hand. Definitely couldn't happen to a better jackass, but the truth is most shakedowns and cover-ups are done with finesse. Another case of hubris bringing down a jackass.
Takes the pressure of being undefeated off. Better a road game to a decent team than something else. Iggy didn't get the on ball foul call he wanted and then screwed up with the intentional...oh well, that kind of stuff happens on the road. Iggy's bigger mistake was pre-game comments about being better than Duke....just unnecessary, and violates the one game at a time theory of mindset...weren't even playing Duke and probably made his guy on Wiscy extra-motivated. I think the undefeated streak might have caused Iggy and Poole to allow their cockiness to get ahead of their abilities. I am actually more worried about Poole than Iggy even though Iggy's game was a worse stinker today...that miracle in Houston shot still hasn't been forgotten I fear. Michigan State and Maryland look great, so setting up to be a hell of a battle.
Put more simply, if we had the stats: penalty yards gained on scoring drives, penalty yards lost on scoring drives, net penalty yards on scoring drives, and avg. penalty yards per point gained....it would tell us how important avoiding penalties or gaining from penalties on defense is to scoring points. Suspect it's more important than one might guess without seeing those stats. Average penalty yards gained per point scored would highly correlate to the yards per point efficiency stat.
Not saying it would be more important than offensive playmaking ability, just that it might be more important than people would guess.
I suspect a good portion of the measurements is measuring how good an offense is at avoiding penalty yards and/or gaining yards on defense penalties. This could be a little bit distorting.
Michigan and Ohio State are both highly penalized teams - 112 and 119 of 129. Unfortunately the stats are in total so you don't know how it breaks down between offense and defense.
Penn State, Alabama, Houston, and Notre Dame are all top 50. Oklahoma is 73, which is near the median, so for them the measure of efficiency is probably truly true and impressive as a measure of yards while being penalized about average.
Not saying the stats aren't interesting or informative, but if adjusted for penalty yards, it would be a better pure statistic about playmaking ability on no-penalty plays (no loss on your own penalty and/or no gain on a defenses penalty).
Bottom line guess: avoiding penalties may be a really important part of this efficiency stat for those able to do so. would be interesting to see it adjusted to remove penalties impacts.
No reason for panic. Good reason for disappointment combined with optimism. Can't know which emotion should dominate this early in the season. Don't really know if ND's defense is top tier or if instead our Offense is just a slightly better mediocre than recent years. I'll stick with optimism at this point: first game, the deadly opponent scoring of which all came in the first half; held ND to less than 100 yards in second half; Defense did enough to create a situation the Offense had the chance to win; Result has no impact on Big race; One thing did worry me....Patterson looked shorter than 6' 2" on the ball bat down play. Loss of Metellus was a big deal, I think. Unfortunately the silly pitchforks by media and fair weather fans will continue until Michigan wins its division - that's just how it's going to be, fair or not. Personalities like Harbaugh are a double-edged sword....creates some enemies just waiting for their time to strike. That said, I think Harbaugh has chilled quite a bit.....but it won't matter to the haters. If I had to identify one thing to criticize: cautious offensive playcalling, and conversely ND went for it offensively in the first half, taking advantage of first game butterflies. Go Blue. Open up the offense, defense is fine.
Funny things you remember...I was at a bed-and-breakfast in Burlington Vermont for business in the early 90's...as I was waiting to check out one early morning, I notice the guy in front of me checking out was Bo...despite being alum and huge fan I didn't say anything to him, but it was a thrill to see him in a place remote from Ann Arbor. Used to occasionally see him around in A2 but more surprising in Vermont. Guess he was vacationing, but always wondered.
I think we'll play relaxed for the whole game. Most of the psychological pressure is on Villanova.....getting 6+ point leads could help make that a factor. I was screaming for a faster pace against Loyola in the first half and it did happen in the 2nd half....but faster pace will not be an advantage over Villanova. No need to try to shoot everything with 5 seconds left on the shot clock, but no marginal shots in the first 15 seconds would help the cause. I think Matthews is ready to bust out...he's been really good the last 3 games....might need him to be great in this one. Tenacious D (let's call it by Jack Blue) and relaxed O....Go Blue.
They should have interviewed Matthews....he hit some clutch shots, tough shots, and was physical in the paint.....not sure we win without his game today.
Simpson and Rahkman also really good games, but kind of more typical.
Robinson with a three dagger down the stretch...
But still, for me, I want to talk to Matthews after that game. Go Blue.
They should have interviewed Matthews....he hit some clutch shots, tough shots, and was physical in the paint.....not sure we win without his game today.
Simpson and Rahkman also really good games, but kind of more typical.
Robinson with a three dagger down the stretch...
But still, for me, I want to talk to Matthews after that game. Go Blue.
and its eruptions can be viewed from distant islands. I chose to use the safest viewing point....if you were on the mainland, it would have been more scary....couldn't appreciate the splendor....you'd be running for your life even if far away....
on the island, you'd be sipping from a coconut, not too worried about the carnage....
I also thought Miller's commentary added to the rompous joy of the game.
Somehow it didn't seem to insult or degrade Texas A&M either...kinda like watching Mt. Pompeii from a distant island....you know people are dying but can't help appreciate the wondrous planetary spectacle. On that night every teammate was dialed into the game and each other.
It doesn't need a similar follow-up to validate it...it lives forever. That said, damn, let's do it again.
Honestly, the statistical analysis is spot-on but the only way to counter a bun is with a hot-dog: give Jordan Poole extra minutes. If we get to wear our maize uniforms, we got the whole package with, at least something resembling mustard.
Michigan got beat by a superior football team. What is its meaning ?
It means that football teams that are superior to Michigan's will beat them more than 50% of the time, so don't be too surprised.
Is there some greater meaning ? Is this an existential crisis for Jim Harbaugh as Coach ?
No and No.
Well, if there is a greater meaning, its don't all hope to triumph over reason. There were some very rational moderate expectations for Michigan going into the season. Somehow they transformed into baseless hope.
Loss to State - deeply disappointing.
Loss to Penn State - deeply expected and understandable, even from the beginning of the season.
Full Season Expectations: 8 - 4, 9-3 would be a pleasant surprise, 10-2 a minor miracle. And just to cover all the bases, 7-5 is possible but would be truly disappointing.
1. No issues with Harbaugh. Love the guy. Keep recruiting well, find a good quarterback, and all should be fine.
2. That said, I am not too excited to be playing Rutgers next week for sole possession of 4th place !
3. Fully expected Penn State to win big. Take tiny consolation that it wasn't quite as bad as 49 - 10, and a bit more consolation that they were sure trying to run it up, and even more consolation that even had they not been stuffed at the end, 49-13 would still have been better than 49-10.
4. Lastly, out of curiosity I checked the Total Defense stats to see where we might fall, after adding 40 yards per game to our average yards given up. Was pleasantly surprised to see it drops only to somewhere around 6th, maybe 5th depending what happens in other games.
I don't have any feelings even remotely close to what I felt during Hoke and RichRod. Not even close.
Recent Comments
Overall, I think it was a shock. The shock was not Michigan being the one to pull through to the CWS, but more so that Oregon State and UCLA got beat in their own backyards. Michigan gets half credit for the OSU beatdown in Corvallis (other half to Creighton) and full credit for the UCLA beatdown. I think Michigan's second half of the season also tempered expectations. Looking just at UCLA, the overall national number 1 seed, 6 of the past 7 years the overall number 1 made it through to the CWS - on that stat, combined with OSU a strong team in it's own regional, I'd say a decent gambler would have said Michigan had substantially less than 10% chance of making it through....probably less than 5%. If totally random, they had a 12.5% chance. Add in the poor performance of most cold winter schools for at least the last 20 years, and I think most people would be highly surprised, and yes, at least pretty close to shocked.
The dominance by warm winter states is probably secure, but you wonder if the trend toward indoor baseball facilities might keep a few more of the good players in the midwest. I really don't buy into the program having been gutted by a mini-scandal...I guess you could say the loss of Middaugh hurt, but I really think by the mid to late 80's, the trend of warm winter schools dominating hit a tipping point. And some of those bigger states, Texas, California, and Florida, the quality teams seem to go all the way down to community colleges. Also, in addition to good programs in warm winter states, people were moving to those states too. I'd say the gutting of manufacturing in the midwest was a big part of the shift too....lots of good players coming from people with jobs in the factories which now are far fewer.
Whatever the case, this is a helluva nice surprise. Go Blue.
Meyer's Fryers for Liars and Priors.
Beilein was a gem, but I do think he did a smart thing to energize his life with a new challenge. As a system guy he was always going to have a hard time getting the one-or-two-and-done type recruits. Today's reality is you can't expect the top talent to hang around for four years. Seems like Howard might have a good shot at recruiting top talent and not having any issues with the reality that for the top talent, your college program is a stepping stone. And it's not that Beilen wasn't able to adjust to that....I don't think he would stand in the way of a kid's career, it's just that as a system guy, he wouldn't naturally attract the top talent, which seeks a platform to show their skills, not necessarily to seek to show what a great x's and o's scheme the program has. Yeah, Beilen is well loved for what he did for M basketball, but it feels like there's a great chance for something new and exciting. I am more excited at possibility of Howard than anyone else, and however the results come in, I think it's great to have a former player as a coach. We know about Harbaugh and football, but it would be interesting to see stats on how many current coaches in all the sports were former players for the school.
Nice. Wish I had been smart enough when I was in college to get it done early. Hard to say what he's plotting, but my read (admittedly based on little) isn't that he's returning to the football field, but maybe another sport (lacrosse ?), or maybe he snared a good assistant or intern position as a trainer to do while doing his kinesiology ? Whatever....sounds like a happy guy with degree in hand....Nice.
Is it just me or does Poole need to put on some beef if his goal is NBA...if Europe, no biggie, he's fine. I always figured Poole's hairstyle was so people thought he was as tall as Caris LeVert, just as he truly was as lean. I am not buying the "Brazdeikis has peaked" theories....he's shown enough that NBA is realistic, but c'mon he could easily well outperform his current season (like consistent 20 - 25 point games) and become a better player. Lastly, Poole is a free spirit...can easily see why he wants his next adventure, even if maybe a year too soon. Wish them all well. Stoked to see how Livers develops....
Yeah, no banners but an excellent season. Based on the final 10 or 15 games of the reg season, including BIG tourney, I was emotionally prepared for a loss in the round of 32, and figured sweet 16 was the bogey. Put them at the midpoint of the 8 losers in sweet 16, and you're the 12th best team in the tourney......not too shabby. That said, it was a painful game to watch, so painful I can't even claim to have watched the whole thing ! And while I usually don't take too much satisfaction from other BIG teams wins, the Purdue win over Tennessee put enough of a smile on my face that the Michigan loss didn't send me to Tennessee based distillates. Go Blue.
Avenatti is toast...will definitely lose his license, but may not go to jail. That's because many lawyers act as shakedown artists, throwing a few crumbs to their clients. In this case, my guess is Avenatti's big mistake was not foreseeing the potential of police recorded phone calls. I don't know for sure, but suspect that if the calls were only recorded by Nike itself, they would be unusable as evidence....so Avenatti knew what he was doing was a crime and a violation of attorney ethics rules, but didn't have enough imagination to think that police recorded phone calls could be arranged on such short notice. The rapid police action on recording suggests either well connected, kick ass lawyers for Nike, or the possibility Nike was already cooperating with Feds on the alleged problems at hand. Definitely couldn't happen to a better jackass, but the truth is most shakedowns and cover-ups are done with finesse. Another case of hubris bringing down a jackass.
Takes the pressure of being undefeated off. Better a road game to a decent team than something else. Iggy didn't get the on ball foul call he wanted and then screwed up with the intentional...oh well, that kind of stuff happens on the road. Iggy's bigger mistake was pre-game comments about being better than Duke....just unnecessary, and violates the one game at a time theory of mindset...weren't even playing Duke and probably made his guy on Wiscy extra-motivated. I think the undefeated streak might have caused Iggy and Poole to allow their cockiness to get ahead of their abilities. I am actually more worried about Poole than Iggy even though Iggy's game was a worse stinker today...that miracle in Houston shot still hasn't been forgotten I fear. Michigan State and Maryland look great, so setting up to be a hell of a battle.
Put more simply, if we had the stats: penalty yards gained on scoring drives, penalty yards lost on scoring drives, net penalty yards on scoring drives, and avg. penalty yards per point gained....it would tell us how important avoiding penalties or gaining from penalties on defense is to scoring points. Suspect it's more important than one might guess without seeing those stats. Average penalty yards gained per point scored would highly correlate to the yards per point efficiency stat.
Not saying it would be more important than offensive playmaking ability, just that it might be more important than people would guess.
I suspect a good portion of the measurements is measuring how good an offense is at avoiding penalty yards and/or gaining yards on defense penalties. This could be a little bit distorting.
Michigan and Ohio State are both highly penalized teams - 112 and 119 of 129. Unfortunately the stats are in total so you don't know how it breaks down between offense and defense.
Penn State, Alabama, Houston, and Notre Dame are all top 50. Oklahoma is 73, which is near the median, so for them the measure of efficiency is probably truly true and impressive as a measure of yards while being penalized about average.
Not saying the stats aren't interesting or informative, but if adjusted for penalty yards, it would be a better pure statistic about playmaking ability on no-penalty plays (no loss on your own penalty and/or no gain on a defenses penalty).
Bottom line guess: avoiding penalties may be a really important part of this efficiency stat for those able to do so. would be interesting to see it adjusted to remove penalties impacts.
No reason for panic. Good reason for disappointment combined with optimism. Can't know which emotion should dominate this early in the season. Don't really know if ND's defense is top tier or if instead our Offense is just a slightly better mediocre than recent years. I'll stick with optimism at this point: first game, the deadly opponent scoring of which all came in the first half; held ND to less than 100 yards in second half; Defense did enough to create a situation the Offense had the chance to win; Result has no impact on Big race; One thing did worry me....Patterson looked shorter than 6' 2" on the ball bat down play. Loss of Metellus was a big deal, I think. Unfortunately the silly pitchforks by media and fair weather fans will continue until Michigan wins its division - that's just how it's going to be, fair or not. Personalities like Harbaugh are a double-edged sword....creates some enemies just waiting for their time to strike. That said, I think Harbaugh has chilled quite a bit.....but it won't matter to the haters. If I had to identify one thing to criticize: cautious offensive playcalling, and conversely ND went for it offensively in the first half, taking advantage of first game butterflies. Go Blue. Open up the offense, defense is fine.
I am no grammarian, but I think it's pikeline.
What about testing qb's ability to throw a spiral with a pike before graduating to a strung leather inflatable ?
Funny things you remember...I was at a bed-and-breakfast in Burlington Vermont for business in the early 90's...as I was waiting to check out one early morning, I notice the guy in front of me checking out was Bo...despite being alum and huge fan I didn't say anything to him, but it was a thrill to see him in a place remote from Ann Arbor. Used to occasionally see him around in A2 but more surprising in Vermont. Guess he was vacationing, but always wondered.
I think we'll play relaxed for the whole game. Most of the psychological pressure is on Villanova.....getting 6+ point leads could help make that a factor. I was screaming for a faster pace against Loyola in the first half and it did happen in the 2nd half....but faster pace will not be an advantage over Villanova. No need to try to shoot everything with 5 seconds left on the shot clock, but no marginal shots in the first 15 seconds would help the cause. I think Matthews is ready to bust out...he's been really good the last 3 games....might need him to be great in this one. Tenacious D (let's call it by Jack Blue) and relaxed O....Go Blue.
They should have interviewed Matthews....he hit some clutch shots, tough shots, and was physical in the paint.....not sure we win without his game today.
Simpson and Rahkman also really good games, but kind of more typical.
Robinson with a three dagger down the stretch...
But still, for me, I want to talk to Matthews after that game. Go Blue.
They should have interviewed Matthews....he hit some clutch shots, tough shots, and was physical in the paint.....not sure we win without his game today.
Simpson and Rahkman also really good games, but kind of more typical.
Robinson with a three dagger down the stretch...
But still, for me, I want to talk to Matthews after that game. Go Blue.
Monday's News: Michigan in Final Four in Basketball and Hockey !
I'm thinking Capri.
and its eruptions can be viewed from distant islands. I chose to use the safest viewing point....if you were on the mainland, it would have been more scary....couldn't appreciate the splendor....you'd be running for your life even if far away....
on the island, you'd be sipping from a coconut, not too worried about the carnage....
I also thought Miller's commentary added to the rompous joy of the game.
Somehow it didn't seem to insult or degrade Texas A&M either...kinda like watching Mt. Pompeii from a distant island....you know people are dying but can't help appreciate the wondrous planetary spectacle. On that night every teammate was dialed into the game and each other.
It doesn't need a similar follow-up to validate it...it lives forever. That said, damn, let's do it again.
I told ya...the only way to counter a man bun is with a hot-dog....Jordan Poole. Awesome.
Honestly, the statistical analysis is spot-on but the only way to counter a bun is with a hot-dog: give Jordan Poole extra minutes. If we get to wear our maize uniforms, we got the whole package with, at least something resembling mustard.
I anticipate relishing the victory.
Michigan got beat by a superior football team. What is its meaning ?
It means that football teams that are superior to Michigan's will beat them more than 50% of the time, so don't be too surprised.
Is there some greater meaning ? Is this an existential crisis for Jim Harbaugh as Coach ?
No and No.
Well, if there is a greater meaning, its don't all hope to triumph over reason. There were some very rational moderate expectations for Michigan going into the season. Somehow they transformed into baseless hope.
Loss to State - deeply disappointing.
Loss to Penn State - deeply expected and understandable, even from the beginning of the season.
Full Season Expectations: 8 - 4, 9-3 would be a pleasant surprise, 10-2 a minor miracle. And just to cover all the bases, 7-5 is possible but would be truly disappointing.
Go Blue. Real love.
1. No issues with Harbaugh. Love the guy. Keep recruiting well, find a good quarterback, and all should be fine.
2. That said, I am not too excited to be playing Rutgers next week for sole possession of 4th place !
3. Fully expected Penn State to win big. Take tiny consolation that it wasn't quite as bad as 49 - 10, and a bit more consolation that they were sure trying to run it up, and even more consolation that even had they not been stuffed at the end, 49-13 would still have been better than 49-10.
4. Lastly, out of curiosity I checked the Total Defense stats to see where we might fall, after adding 40 yards per game to our average yards given up. Was pleasantly surprised to see it drops only to somewhere around 6th, maybe 5th depending what happens in other games.
I don't have any feelings even remotely close to what I felt during Hoke and RichRod. Not even close.