"Year three, statistically speaking, is when it all starts to come together—when the no-longer-new coach's recruits and systems settle into place, and the team reaches new heights. The records of college football's current major-conference coaches bear this out: They had a .548 win percentage in years one and two combined, then a .627 mark in year three."
This quote above is missing something, specifically all the coaches who got fired. Counting only the coaches who are currenlty coaching alters the data set in such a way that this stat is in no way predictive or even a fair measure of what actually happens in year 3 for a coach. Coaches get fired after bad years and fall out of this stat, thus raising the winning percentage of the coaches who still have jobs. Here is a short list of coaches who had 3rd years that were bad and are not included in that .627
John L Smith (5-7 in 2005)
Bobby Williams (3-6 in 2002 before getting fired)
Charlie Weis (3-9 in 2007)
Gerry DiNardo (3-8 in 2004)
All had sub-.500 records in their 3rd year. All are now gone. As a matter of fact, Ty Willingham had sub-.500 records twice in his 3rd year at a school and one school where he was 6-5 in the 3rd year. Any of those seasons would drag down that .627 average.
For the record, I'm growing accustomed to RichRod and hope he does well. Just, these numbers are argh to me.
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52-10 Michigan
"Year three, statistically speaking, is when it all starts to come together—when the no-longer-new coach's recruits and systems settle into place, and the team reaches new heights. The records of college football's current major-conference coaches bear this out: They had a .548 win percentage in years one and two combined, then a .627 mark in year three."
This quote above is missing something, specifically all the coaches who got fired. Counting only the coaches who are currenlty coaching alters the data set in such a way that this stat is in no way predictive or even a fair measure of what actually happens in year 3 for a coach. Coaches get fired after bad years and fall out of this stat, thus raising the winning percentage of the coaches who still have jobs. Here is a short list of coaches who had 3rd years that were bad and are not included in that .627
John L Smith (5-7 in 2005)
Bobby Williams (3-6 in 2002 before getting fired)
Charlie Weis (3-9 in 2007)
Gerry DiNardo (3-8 in 2004)
All had sub-.500 records in their 3rd year. All are now gone. As a matter of fact, Ty Willingham had sub-.500 records twice in his 3rd year at a school and one school where he was 6-5 in the 3rd year. Any of those seasons would drag down that .627 average.
For the record, I'm growing accustomed to RichRod and hope he does well. Just, these numbers are argh to me.