the just released schedules were a flat-out statement that the B10 doesn't believe SOS will matter in playoff selection
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|12 weeks 4 days ago||Same here||
I emailed Tae's kickstarter address on Jan 2nd, and he said then that hoodies would mail out in the next two weeks. I'm just hoping I get it before hoodie season is over.
|23 weeks 4 days ago||?||
I think that's responding to my first paragraph? Sorry, that was directed at MGoAlexander's post (but not timely enough). I like your proposal a lot -- was just trying to piggy back on it with a few tweaks.
|23 weeks 4 days ago||Divisions||
The only downside to that is that there are no "divisions" then, just the four "pods." I don't believe that it would fit in with the current NCAA rules for a championship game.
If not for the NCAA rules about divisions, I was thinking along the lines of something similar, but without division distinctions as well. Essentially, mirror the current NFL scheduling -- the four pods play everyone within their pod every year, and rotate the other pod. Then rather than have a floating de jure division, you just pick the two pod champs with the best record. The only difference with this version versus the OD's is that it would allow for a rematch if the two best teams were in the same pod-pairing that year (IMO, that's a better scenario than having a Wisconsin or Georgia Tech type be able to sneak in).
Other thought here is "secondary rivalries." When Michigan's pod is paired with Ohio's, there's an open "rivalry" game. If some of these lesser "rivalries" are a concern, like Indiana-Michigan State or Michigan-Penn State they could be the back-up to that rivalry game, so that it would be played two out of every three years (or four out of six) rather than one out of every three.
But, Brian's thought a way back is probably the best one to adapt. Would you really miss playing Indiana and Illinois?
The Big Ten Division
The Also Kind of Big Ten Division
New Team A
New Team B
|25 weeks 41 sec ago||Lewan is probably going pro||
Some dodgy plays yesterday withstanding, Lewan is a consensus projected 1st round pick, potentially in the Top 10 (hopefully not too high for the Lions, but that's another thread). It's rare that players come back when they have a draft grade like that. Being a RS Junior, Lewan can also probably finish up his degree before next season. I wouldn't be shocked, and would be delighted, if he came back to address some unfinished business.
|26 weeks 6 days ago||Internet's a big place||
I didn't see your first post, Blue Blue Blue, so I can only speak generally. But, I know this has come up before from other posters.
There are several places where someone can say whatever their opinion of Michigan sports is, regardless of how substantiated, intelligent, coherent, etc. it is. See: MLive, Detroit Free Press, Facebook, ESPN.com, etc. I think the mods at MGoBlog are trying to make sure this does not become one of those places. Personally, I like it that way. I like knowing that when I click on a thread here, I an expect a certain degree of reason. At least, relative to everything else on the Internet.
To address your post here itself -- the reason that people think it's ridiculous is that Hoke and company show time and time again that they can take lemons, eat them, then poop magic. If he makes mistakes, he's owed a huge deal of slack. See: OSU, MSU, bowl monkeys off of our backs.
Gardner was our second best WR. There was a lot of value putting him in the lineup, and it was a reasonable gamble. I don't think anyone could have reasonably predicted Gardner would have been so competent-to-good at QB right away either, based on previous playing time, Spring performance, etc. Also, @MINN & VS. NW <> @NU with division title on the line.
|31 weeks 6 days ago||There is a numbers "advantage"||
Compare the read option to a standard hand off. In that case the QB accomplishes nothing post-snap, it's 11 defenders vs 9 blockers and a runner. The read option forces a DE (or LB if the defense makes certain adjustments) to take the RB/QB without the ball so it's 10 defenders vs 9 blockers and a runner. Does that clear things up?
|33 weeks 6 days ago||Fuck. Fuckfuckfuckfuck||
|33 weeks 6 days ago||can't they review the ball||
can't they review the ball spot?
|36 weeks 1 day ago||Well||
That would be a callback to last year's early games (see: EMU) where Denard ran a crapton unexplicably. Brian is being sort of half-sarcastic. It's a commentary on several levels -- Borges' use of him in the past year, general sports predictions, general pessimism of Michigan fans around now, and I can't believe I'm really explaining this nevermind.
Also, don't expect UM to "blow Air Force away." A one or two score lead at half time, then pulling away late third quarter or early fourth quarter are more likely, unless they connect on some bombs to Gardner/Gallon. If Air Force were in the Big Ten, they would probably be around the 3-5 in conference mark historically. High probably of win to be sure, but not a MACrifice.
|36 weeks 1 day ago||Not sure where he'd get that||
The coverage map linked above is just the one that ESPN provides. A quick Google search doesn't yield the Puerto Rico coverage map. I'd assume it'd be the same as Florida and the Southeast though. Have you noticed it being different in the past?
|36 weeks 1 day ago||This paragraph got me interested:||
"I wish I could give you more than the thousand-foot overview but playing Academy teams, especially early in the season, is an exercise in reading season previews that all say "these 18 new starters are at the Air Force Academy, and this is all we know." "
This made me curious as to how much variance there is year to year for Air Force, and similarly for Navy. If you consistently have this level of turnaround, how much better or worse can you be year to year? Too lazy to do a deep dive (and not enough points to post it if I did), but here are their end season Overall FEI ranks (out of ~120 FBS teams):
Air Force generally hovers around #40, with a larger drop off coming between the 2010 and 2011 seasons, and a big improvement from 2008 to 2009. Navy hovers around the same area, and had a big improvement from 2007 to 2008. So, the best team one could reasonably expect would take a leap back to around that #40 rank, which is about where Penn State was last year. If they stay at the same level, they're about where Purdue was last year. Pretty impressive either way given the level of personnel turnover and restrictions they face.
|36 weeks 1 day ago||If you're the type to worry about Eastern, then...||
worry about Air Force. Using end season FEI rank as a proxy for 'how good are you', Air Force is consistently been better than EMU over the past five seasons. Air Force ranged between 40th and 79th among FBS teams (though that 79 was last year), while Eastern hovers around the 90th and 100th range. However, I wouldn't recommend worrying about Air Force (*knock on wood*)
|36 weeks 3 days ago||Bill Bentley||
Bill Bentley, a rookie on the Lions is one of them. If he can convince some of his teammates to contribute, even just one of Stafford, Suh, or Megatron, this thing will be funded real quick.
Any MGoMBAers -- which donation levels do you think have the highest margins for the charity?
|36 weeks 4 days ago||Easy classes||
Curtis' argument has truth to it, but stops short.
From my experience at LSA, easy classes and independent studies are available to basically every student at UM. Even a number of classes that are very challenging to get an 'A' in are fairly straightforward to get a B in, but difficult to fail. What makes a school good are opportunities to challenge students, and resources to help with those challenges. A lot of classmates, like me, chose to take the difficult classes, and it paid off. But I've seen students, athletes or otherwise, take the path of least resistance, getting Cs and Bs enough to graduate, but not learning or growing much, or taking classes that offer easy A's.
I'm sure there are other universities that have a much more rigorous curriculum that they require of every student, but what makes a school 'good' isn't whether or not their students elect to take Comm or Engineering classes. You can only control that to the degree of your admissions standards, which Curtis all but glosses over -- the Big Ten has more rigorous standards than the SEC. Unless the indepdent studies he mentions are easy to a UNC level, then they don't bear mentioning.
|36 weeks 4 days ago||This is called||
Dave Brandon creating the future
|36 weeks 4 days ago||Got it backwards||
You went to Michigan BECAUSE you're better than everyone else
|37 weeks 5 days ago||While his health was||
While his health was certainly better in 2011 than in 2010, and all of those early exits in 2010 decreased Denard's carry total, to Brian's point there didn't seem to be a consistent 'keep Denard healthy' strategy. Exhibit A: 26 rushes against EMU. Exhibit B: 21 rushes against San Diego State.
The real factor is Touissant, not a concerted effort to keep Denard healthy. To oversimplify the issue:
Passing-heavy offense obviously wouldn't have worked in either season. With no feature back in 2010, the gameplan was simply run Denard to set up QB-oh-noes and the like. In 2011, Fitz took some of that burden off of Denard, and really emerged after those EMU and SDSU games, which let his carries dip down thereafter.
|38 weeks 3 days ago||Cap Room||
Not even thinking of the draft picks and players they'd give up, or the return on value in the latter part of the contract we'd have to give MJD, the cap cost might be prohibitve.
The Lions are already heavily invested in Stafford, Johnson, and Suh. Adding MJD takes away a lot of flexibility. Detroit only has ~4 million in cap space right now, so they would have to trade or release someone to make the MJD extension happen. In terms of cuts, if Best still isn't cleared soon and it looks like he'll never be, they might just cut him. There wouldn't be room for both Best and MJD in any case. They would have to do more than that, though.
Since Jacksonville seems cost conscious, they're unlikely to take back any significant contract unless it's a blue chip player. If Jax really likes Avril, he could make sense -- they've been looking to bolster their pass rush a lot recently and Detroit seems unlikely to re-sign him.
But even if they get under the cap for this year, there are likely extensions for Delmas, Levy and Durant during this season/next year. Detroit also has to think about re-signing Cherilus, Houston, Corey Williams and Avril in the offseason, though some of those might not happen anyway. Overall, it seems unlikely.
Still, the thought of MJD on this team without giving up too many significant pieces is tantalizing. He's a good pass-catching threat as well, which would give Detroit another huge dimension in addition to keeping teams more honest against the run.
|38 weeks 4 days ago||Short yardage||
I think Hoke was alluding to using him at 3 and Ash/Pipkins at 1 in short yardage situations/goalline packages. The way I read it, it's just a situational thing, but he'll get most of his playing time at 1, with Black getting most of the time at 3.
However, he also mentions that Wormley's injury may have shaken things up. I read into that being a bit of a domino effect: there's less depth at DE so Black might play some more 5, Campbell some more 3, Pipkins/Ash get more reps at 1, etc.
|39 weeks 3 days ago||Thank you? I'm inclined to||
I'm inclined to agree - the Rose Bowl loses some of its luster if you back into it. At the same time, that theoretical team would be the second best Big 10 team, with the best team gong to the national championship. So which makes less sense for a Rose Bowl berth -- that Big Ten team, another Big Ten team who didn't make the conference championship, or an at large selection?
Also, not to start a whole thing, but how was I pretending that a video game was real life?
|39 weeks 3 days ago||Funny you bring this up||
I'm encountering scenario #3 in my NCAA 13 Road to Glory -- Michigan and Ohio are both undefeated and have locked up berths to the conference championship. I'm having similarly mixed feelings -- UM-OSU is always UM-OSU, but that there's a guaranteed rematch the next week with more on the line diminishes the meaning. This scenairo will probably not occur too much for UM-OSU or other teams, but seems likely enough that we'll see it in our lifetime.
My question to the board -- imagine my scenario happens in real life (UM and Ohio both undefeated, ranked in BCS Top 5 going into The Game). What would the Rose Bowl and national championship repurcussions be?
-Would a team that lost twice still almost certainly go to the Rose Bowl?
-If the teams split and there was only one remaining major undefeated team, how do you determine who goes to the national championship?
-If the teams split and there are no remaining undefeated teams, could you reasonably make a case for a rubber match in the national championship?
|40 weeks 4 days ago||Thanks||
Thanks for pointing this out -- Leach did indeed play in that Baylor game, but he did not start it. I'm not sure how the timing of the scoring went...
The definition of a win I was using was: QB starts the game and team ultimately wins that game - not the best definition but probably the simplest. Are the rest of you thinking in temrs of a differnet definition? Like the "win" stat for pitchers?
|40 weeks 4 days ago||Sorta||
My only sources arewikipedia and a random blog, as I wasn't born yet in 1975
But according to those, UM opened with a win at Wisc, then tied Stanford, then Leach sat for a tie against Baylor. They started off 8-0-2 before losing to Ohio, then to Oklahoma in the Orange bowl. Maybe I'll check my copy of War As They Knew It tomorrow...
|40 weeks 4 days ago||It's Leach||
Navarre: 42 career starts, 31-11
2000: 3-1 (Henson came back starting with the fifth game)
Henne: 45 career starts, 33-12
2007: 6-2 (missed starts against ND, PSU, Minn, ???-I think Wisc. I'm less confident about this year)
Leach: 49 career starts, 38-8-3
1975: 8-2-1 (sat against Baylor)
Honorable mention: Dennis Franklin had a 30-2-1 record over 1971-1974
Sources (not exactly official):
|40 weeks 6 days ago||People tend to blend their memories||
People tend to blend their memories in general, particularly as time goes on. I think the two main effects, are that people are thinking of Harris' successful NFL career and breakout senior season, and blending that with his solid junior season. Most fans can't recall the aptitude of player X in a given year several years ago (for example, it took looking back at some old game summaries for me to remember that I was really down on RVB his sophomore year, since I have such a good impression of him now).
Seems like there's a strong argument that both Harris and Demens had B+ junior years. Magnus -- you seem to think that Demens is in line for a breakout year, which is why you're comparing him to Harris. What do you see that makes you thnk this? Isn't it most likely that Demens more or less stays Demens (particularly without Martin or RVB in front of him), and continues to put up solid but unspectaular numbers.
|43 weeks 3 days ago||Comparing success rates||
Onside kick success rate is ~15-20%, depending on whether the receiving team is expecting it (it's higher in 1st-3rd quarter situations). Using Mathlete's 4th down calculator, (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArIJu5WnPvjhdC1SVEdYRURxTzV...) an average offense has about a 27% chance of success on 4th and 10.
So, you're right -- this might make teams go for it too often (a very good offense has a 31% chance of success on 4th and 10). Maybe 4th and 15 would work better?
The important thing is a team far behind in late game has a small but real chance of coming back. The onside kick play is objectively weird -- it shares little in common with 90% of the other plays that happen in a football game. I'd be all for eliminating kickoffs with a play that better aligns with the rest of the game.
|43 weeks 3 days ago||Bowl Game Cluster****||
My first season was a bit bumpy -- opening game loss to Alabama on a last second hail mary, six week injury to Denard , but bounced back to put a winning streak together. Ended up losing at #1 Wisconsin and at Ohio as well (gave up last minute TD) to finish 9-3. Fitz didn't smell any Heisman or even Walker lover despite going over 2000(!) yards on the season, breaking Biakabutuka's record during the....Outback Bowl.
Which reminds me -- anyone else have weird bowl game choices? Wisconsin was and undefeated #1 most of the season before losing in the Big Ten Championship to Iowa. Iowa goes on to the Rose Bowl, but Wisconsin misses out on an at large berth and gets the Capital One Bowl, bumping me down to Outback. And the national championship game was between 10-2 Oklahoma, and 12-0.....FIU (!?!?!?!). Oklahoma torched them 42-3, and I scheduled FIU this year to see what the fuss was all about.
|43 weeks 4 days ago||Gotcha||
Thanks for the info. I could power through the majority of a season in a weekend, but could probably only squeeze in one game from Monday - Friday. So, it doesn't sound like I'm the best fit. Best of you luck to you.
|43 weeks 4 days ago||I'd take Minn||
But, can you tell me a bit more about your online dynasty?Any house rules I should know about? How often do you play? I tend to get most of my gaming in on the weekend, so if the rest of you want to play more often on the weekdays I probably wouldn't be the best fit.
|1 year 2 weeks ago||Either Medical related, or a classless move from Washington||
Either way, Shaw will surely BOUNCE back