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I have managed to stay out…

I have managed to stay out of BPONE this season with the exception of the 4th quarter of the MSU game. My goal has been to find the fun in this season rather than judge every play against the yardstick of "does this mean we can beat OSU." And I have managed to find the fun - this has been a good season even if it has not been particularly shiny: 10 wins, meaningful victories over Wisconsin and Penn State, no real let-down games, program feels on an upward trajectory with young and exciting players and coaching staff. Several extremely fun players to watch every week starting with Haskins and Hutchinson, and others popping up throughout the season like Ojabo, Anthony, Turner, Wilson.

All of that said, I am not running full speed ahead and trying to kick that football. Rationally I see that Michigan is just a one touchdown underdog at home, on paper has a 30-40% win probability, looks to have well more than a puncher's chance. But the notion of getting my hopes up that we actually take down the Big Bad this year only to have those crushed utterly - whether through getting bombed to smithereens from the drop, falling a yard short late, getting hosed on some unbelievable call, or whatever else the 11 year old Ohio State fan whose NCAA 14 dynasty we are living in has cooked up -  feels too emotionally perilous. This feels very silly to write as a grown man, but letting myself care too much and then losing probably means I'm just done with caring about football. And I am dealing with infinitely less than Brian Cook is this year. I am actually doing fine.

I say this to say, I can not expect Brian or anybody else to dig deep and find something so meaningful in the fan zeitgeist to tap into as he managed in 2006. 

For my part, I will be watching and cheering and hoping for a win, but not setting any emotional expectation for one. It's like putting a bet on 00 on a roulette wheel. Let's enjoy the spin, and get excited about the chips if we win them, but I'm not going to mentally start counting my winnings.

On a deeper level, the only thing I will really invest in seeing is some fight. Show some creativity, show that our guys can hang with their guys, make them earn it, let us walk away thinking "maybe next year when McCarthy is ready." Statistically, if we get close enough it has to happen eventually. The vibe is the last sentence in the Great Gatsby. OSU and Alabama as football programs are on another level from everyone else for institutional reasons we won't, and probably shouldn't, ever overcome. But we beat on, boats against the current. Maybe next year. 

He was the lead recruiter…

He was the lead recruiter for a 4 star DE that ASU got out of California, who was purportedly choosing between ASU and USC. So, at least a bit of evidence that he can 'croot as well as coach.

Ah, thanks everyone! That's…

Ah, thanks everyone! That's really helpful as I was looking to pull the trigger on game ticket and plane ticket soon. If night game is ruled out then it's safe to consider, and I should probably assume 3:30 kick.

 

While the thread's still front page and offseason is in effect - anyone else planning on going? Anyone gone to NW in the past - any tips?

VPN

There are a wide variety of apps out there. Should just search "VPN" on whatever app store you use on your phone/tablet (Google Play, whatever Apple thing).

 

There are some free ones that are supported by ads, which are probably fine in a pinch. Some are less scrupulous and will likely sell your data, so be careful what you browse while using it. Paid ones are better if you would be using more long term. I don't have a great recommendation on which to use. I use one called TurboVPN when I'm abroad, which is free with ads. Pick something that has a decent review rating and number of overall downloads.

 

You can try this out before you leave. Once it's installed, open it up, and you'll have some option to select the country which you want to VPN from. You'll want to pick US if you're using a comcast app, or some other streaming app, as those tend to lock content out by region. If you're just using Google, you can pick something closer like Signapore or Japan if available, as you'll get better speeds by picking something closer, and there you are just trying to end-around China's Great Firewall.

comcast

I am not versed in their offerings but comcast might also have an app that lets you watch live tv on pgone or tablet. some cable apps also allow recording so if you have no wifi you might go that route. shouldnt be too hard to avoid seeing the score in china

aside: if you plan to use google in china you will need a vpn so you may want to get that set up anyway

uh oh

You may be out of luck. You should check your booking for what WiFi is on service. I have not gotten WiFi or live TV on my handful of trans-ocean flights in the past year - entertainment has been pre loaded movies and TV.

If you do have wifi, your best legal option is Sling. Sign up for a 7 day free trial which will renew if you dont cancel. Even then you might need a VPN app - look through the app store for a well reviewed onem I use TurboVPN, and used that when I was oversead for last years tourney runs. It van slow down speeds though.

Your grey area option if you have wifi is a stream linked via a discord server. If you are interested try to find the latest thread about it - one was posted yesterday. That one requires a few more set up steps up front but is easy once set up - less trouble at flight time. And should not require VPN.

If slow wifi is a bottleneck you might have to settle for the audio feed from mgoblue

Thanks

Thank you for setting this up

661934

 

Benny's

That's where we're leaning. How early, like 9:30?

rutgers

would you still suggest buying at game if looking for 4 together?

13-6

13-6 Michigan
.
yes

yup

will echo podcast addict. works great but can be a little finicky with bluetooth. still found it worthwhile enough to pay for no ad version

Thank you

Thank you, Bob

 

Thank you, Seth

 

I'll try not to break it

MLCs

You mentioned you and your son ruled out MLCs and several folks still mentioned them, as they are one of your few options to guarantee placement on Central.

 

Not sure of your reasons, but I wouldn't be quick to rule the MLCs out. If he's completely disinterested in all of them, then sure don't bother. But if it's more about a lack of motivation for them, they may not be some huge commitment.

 

I did HSSP in 2007-08. Commitment was an easy seminar class, attending a few lectures throughout the year and doing some simple write-ups, and getting to job shadow a few people at the UM hospital (which was pretty cool). Upside of living on central was nice, and the other students in the program were cool. It also had the added benefit of convincing me pre-med was not for me (since I saw where I was in terms of motivation and capacity for organic chemistry vs. my peers), but maybe it would have a reverse effect for your son of exposing to a few career options.

 

So, I'd suggest taking another look at the MLCs and understanding the extent of commitment required for any he might be marginally interested in. I'm sure you could even ask the people running the program about it from the angle of "wanting to make sure my son isn't overwhelmed with work his freshman year."

Class space

I don't think this will be too much of an issue. Currently Michigan is one over.

Donnal having his redshirt taken off and being passed by Wagner & Wilson makes it likely he will exit.

It looks like Chatman will get buried; he does not seem to have progressed much. He may want to transfer.

Irvin could potentially go pro after this year.

Just need 2/3 of the above to happen for there to be a spot for Spike. Likelihood of the above should come into focus by the time he's back to 100% or close to it; has to be a ways off if he's not even practicing yet.

Would be nice to have him next year as the back-up PG and playing a few min w/ Walton (taking LeVert's min and possibly Irvin's) rather than rely on a true freshman. 

He did...

He did. Got dismissed, then transferred to Maryland.

Yeah, nice job Ace.

1. Ace, 2. Brian, 3. Alex, 4. Seth

34-16 M

34-16 M

App

I don't have a Smart TV so I'm not sure. But the app for Sling TV itself is free - you just need a subscription to actually use it (just like how you could download Netflix to your phone, tablet, Roku even if you haven't subscribed).



So, however you go about installing apps on your Smart TV, I think your best bet is to see if you can get Sling TV that way.

And I'll echo everyone else -- I got MNF on Sling, so it must be a local market thing. I did notice that the ESPN feed was pretty patchy (as it was with MSU-Neb on Sat). Not sure if that was an ESPN issue or a local internet issue.

Snowflake thread

Could at least have 1 dedicated thread each day about the game, similar to the day-of snowflake threads, to minimize all the new things that pop up.

I'd also support the OT hold given it's a bye week

2 cents/own question

I'd go with Luck and Manning, but see your case for Bortles. Both the Texans and Browns have been rather bad against the pass this year. I think Luck will start picking back up. 

I also have Beckham; I think he'll play and be fine and also don't have a great back-up option, so I'm going with him.

My QB situation is not ideal -- choosing 1 of 3 between Newton (@Sea), Stafford (vs.Chi), and Mariota (vs.Mia). Currently leaning toward Mariota; no trust in Stafford at this point, and QB @Sea is asking for trouble. Could be talked out of it, though.

Michigan over Maryland 27-6

Michigan over Maryland 27-6 (missed XP on both sides)

Michigan over Northwestern 24-3 (Peppers with first career TO)

 

 

Yup

Right, that's what I meant. I referred to the spots as Stauskas'/GRIII's because I was thinking in terms of a spot for a G and a spot for a F...wouldn't expect either MAAR or Dawkins' minutes to be too high in 2014-15.

Exactly

Right -- essentially MAAR is taking Stauskas' spot, and Dawkins is (hopefully) taking GRIII's spot. No plans to medical Hatch just yet, so there's only an open transfer spot if McGary leaves. Will be interesting to see if this evolves differently if Dawkins ends up elsewhere and either of the transfers are still in the mix.

SAM

I can buy Ryan at MLB as an upgrade, particularly against these spread-y teams. The major concern is the gaping hole that leaves at SAM. Even if the "SAM" is really the Nickel DE for ~60% of downs (which Beyer could hld down), for the other ~40% of downs that's a huge hole on the edge. 

Maybe I'm interpreting this wrong -- maybe they go Ross/Morgan/Ryan against traditional teams/in run downs and Ryan is a "Nickel MLB." That's still asking a lot of Ryan, and lot of whoever replaces him on the edge.

Glad it wasn't just me

The intro music is crazily looping over itself. I almost like it. But almost doesn't cut it.

 

Please never do it again, unless we beat Ohio tonight, in which case always, always, always do it again.

Images

I for one enjoy the images, and the new charts showig the four factors -- I spent a couple minutes on them really taking them in. I only saw them post-opacity update, but I had no issues with readability.

phone posting noob

apparently I do not know how to enter line breaks from the phone app. ugh. /noob

lineup card

Add me to the list of those who like the new lineup card.

Also agree that Kenpoms algorithms overrate Iowa due to some blowouts. UMs ability to prevent transition opportunities via their strengtus of few TOs and high shooting % are a good foil to Iowa's key strength. The key will be to maintain that and mitigate Iowa going crazy on Oreb. That said, definitely agree with Ace not deviating from the Kenpom prediction.

Mini-feedback: Did the previews formerly show UMs rankings on the four factors along with the opponents or am I misremembering? In any case, I am interested enough to want to see those in the previews but too lazy to look them up. So take that for what little it is worth.

Was about to say my experience is more recent...

...but I applied Fall 2006, so not much more so than some of the folks above. I'll draw off my experience as an instater who got in with ~20 classmates. I think you have a strong chance as-is, though a really good essay/teacher rec would certainly help. But I do agree with other posters that increasing your ACT is a wise investment. If you get that up to 31 you shouldn't have an issue getting in. The Mendoza line for my high school classmates seemed to be 27, but I didn't hear about anything with a 30+ getting rejected.

One piece of advice is to explore taking the SAT if you haven't already. When I was applying UM would accept either test score. Some say the ACT is easier, but I think it's highly variable by individual. I ended up doing somewhat better on my SAT than on the ACT as far as overall percentiles go. I'd suggest taking a practice test - there's some content overlap with the ACT so the practice is good, and you could end up finding it easier.

I think UM still gives 'bonus points' to instate applicants, but I remember when I was applying that they were supposedly dialing that down because they love that sweet out of state tuition. That's more hearsay than anything else. 

I don't remember AP test record as being particularly important, though taking AP classes should demonstrate you had good rigor in your curriculum. Some unsolicited advice: don't necessarily apply for AP credit for every test you take unless you're going to use it. I ended up having a full semester of AP credit, so I was counted as an upperclassman my second sophomore semester, which meant paying upperclassman tuition for an extra semester. If you're going to "use" that credit to graduate early or take more advanced, interesting classes then go for it; otherwise it can cost you some extra money.

Additional unsolicited advice: I loved my time at UM and agree with a poster above that if you elect a major that translates easily into a well-paying job that the high tuition is worth it. But, if you're undecided about what you want to study and/or think you may go the "softer" route you should strongly consider something more affordable. With the kind of applications you have, you should be able to get in at a number of good schools with scholarships.

Good luck!

Yes

Must pad my post count, so I can upvote

Pythag

It's a Pythag win %, which means it takes the margin of victory/loss into account. So, even if a team is undefeated they can theoretically improve by increasing their margin of victory over the course of the year.

[Sarcastic Cynicism] Also this is just another way of saying Beilein's teams start slow and don't start playing MICHIGAN BASKETBALL until midseason which is UNACCEPTABLE [/Sarcastic Cynicism]

Liveblog?

Has there been any talk of doing Blyve live blogs for basketball games this season? Or are we just sticking with open threads?

Gator Bowl, then

I believe the Texas and BW3 Bowl are both late December ones, so your rooting interest would be the Gator Bowl then.

Fishing for a +1 Informative: Michigan has never been to the Texas/Meineke Car Care Bowl or the Buffalo Wild Wings/Insight Bowl, but has been to the Gator Bowl 3x.

Suggestion/Request

Really cool analysis! So cool, I want MOAR:

I'd be interested in seeing a repeat of this analysis, but instead of color-coding by conference, color code by philosophies. That is, are there any trends to where Spread vs. Air Raid vs. Pro-Style teams end up? On defense, maybe it's more about how blitz-happy a team is - do they trend to the lower right? If you could measure average number of DBs on the field per play, do those teams trend to the upper left?

Also, clearly the upper right is best and the lower left is worst for both offense and defense. But if a particular style or philsophy takes you into the upper left vs. the lower right, which is 'better?' That is, which correlates with better PPG/wins/TO ratios? To take it a step further graphically, if you collected data on multiple years could you model a series of PPG curves on these graphs?

 

 

I get the same feeling...

It goes beyond Michigan fandom to other entertainment (TV shows, movies, video games, etc). Hearing "Oh I'm a huge fan, too!" coupled with "Who's Jake Ryan? Uh, Sixteen Candles?" is beyond annoying. I think it's the disappointment of going from thinking you can geek out with someone on a shared interest to maybe being perceived as TOO into something.

Same here

I emailed Tae's kickstarter address on Jan 2nd, and he said then that hoodies would mail out in the next two weeks. I'm just hoping I get it before hoodie season is over.

?

I think that's responding to my first paragraph? Sorry, that was directed at MGoAlexander's post (but not timely enough). I like your proposal a lot -- was just trying to piggy back on it with a few tweaks.

Divisions

The only downside to that is that there are no "divisions" then, just the four "pods." I don't believe that it would fit in with the current NCAA rules for a championship game.

 

If not for the NCAA rules about divisions, I was thinking along the lines of something similar, but without division distinctions as well. Essentially, mirror the current NFL scheduling -- the four pods play everyone within their pod every year, and rotate the other pod. Then rather than have a floating de jure division, you just pick the two pod champs with the best record. The only difference with this version versus the OD's is that it would allow for a rematch if the two best teams were in the same pod-pairing that year (IMO, that's a better scenario than having a Wisconsin or Georgia Tech type be able to sneak in).

 

Other thought here is "secondary rivalries." When Michigan's pod is paired with Ohio's, there's an open "rivalry" game. If some of these lesser "rivalries" are a concern, like Indiana-Michigan State or Michigan-Penn State they could be the back-up to that rivalry game, so that it would be played two out of every three years (or four out of six) rather than one out of every three.

But, Brian's thought a way back is probably the best one to adapt. Would you really miss playing Indiana and Illinois?

The Big Ten Division

Michigan

Michigan State

Ohio State

Wisconsin

Iowa

Minnesota

Northwestern

Purdue

The Also Kind of Big Ten Division

Nebraska

Penn State

Maryland

Rutgers

Indiana

Illinois

New Team A

New Team B

Lewan is probably going pro

Some dodgy plays yesterday withstanding, Lewan is a consensus projected 1st round pick, potentially in the Top 10 (hopefully not too high for the Lions, but that's another thread). It's rare that players come back when they have a draft grade like that. Being a RS Junior, Lewan can also probably finish up his degree before next season. I wouldn't be shocked, and would be delighted, if he came back to address some unfinished business.

Internet's a big place

I didn't see your first post, Blue Blue Blue, so I can only speak generally. But, I know this has come up before from other posters.

There are several places where someone can say whatever their opinion of Michigan sports is, regardless of how substantiated, intelligent, coherent, etc. it is. See: MLive, Detroit Free Press, Facebook, ESPN.com, etc. I think the mods at MGoBlog are trying to make sure this does not become one of those places. Personally, I like it that way. I like knowing that when I click on a thread here, I an expect a certain degree of reason. At least, relative to everything else on the Internet.

To address your post here itself -- the reason that people think it's ridiculous is that Hoke and company show time and time again that they can take lemons, eat them, then poop magic. If he makes mistakes, he's owed a huge deal of slack. See: OSU, MSU, bowl monkeys off of our backs.

Gardner was our second best WR. There was a lot of value putting him in the lineup, and it was a reasonable gamble. I don't think anyone could have reasonably predicted Gardner would have been so competent-to-good at QB right away either, based on previous playing time, Spring performance, etc. Also, @MINN & VS. NW <> @NU with division title on the line.

There is a numbers "advantage"

Compare the read option to a standard hand off. In that case the QB accomplishes nothing post-snap, it's 11 defenders vs 9 blockers and a runner. The read option forces a DE (or LB if the defense makes certain adjustments) to take the RB/QB without the ball so it's 10 defenders vs 9 blockers and a runner. Does that clear things up?

Fuck. Fuckfuckfuckfuck

Fuck. Fuckfuckfuckfuck

can't they review the ball

can't they review the ball spot?

Well

That would be a callback to last year's early games (see: EMU) where Denard ran a crapton unexplicably. Brian is being sort of half-sarcastic. It's a commentary on several levels -- Borges' use of him in the past year, general sports predictions, general pessimism of Michigan fans around now, and I can't believe I'm really explaining this nevermind.

Also, don't expect UM to "blow Air Force away." A one or two score lead at half time, then pulling away late third quarter or early fourth quarter are more likely, unless they connect on some bombs to Gardner/Gallon. If Air Force were in the Big Ten, they would probably be around the 3-5 in conference mark historically. High probably of win to be sure, but not a MACrifice.

Not sure where he'd get that

The coverage map linked above is just the one that ESPN provides. A quick Google search doesn't yield the Puerto Rico coverage map. I'd assume it'd be the same as Florida and the Southeast though. Have you noticed it being different in the past?

This paragraph got me interested:

"I wish I could give you more than the thousand-foot overview but playing Academy teams, especially early in the season, is an exercise in reading season previews that all say "these 18 new starters are at the Air Force Academy, and this is all we know." "

This made me curious as to how much variance there is year to year for Air Force, and similarly for Navy. If you consistently have this level of turnaround, how much better or worse can you be year to year? Too lazy to do a deep dive (and not enough points to post it if I did), but here are their end season Overall FEI ranks (out of ~120 FBS teams):

Air Force generally hovers around #40, with a larger drop off coming between the 2010 and 2011 seasons, and a big improvement from 2008 to 2009. Navy hovers around the same area, and had a big improvement from 2007 to 2008. So, the best team one could reasonably expect would take a leap back to around that #40 rank, which is about where Penn State was last year. If they stay at the same level, they're about where Purdue was last year. Pretty impressive either way given the level of personnel turnover and restrictions they face.

2011

Air Force 79

Navy 67



2010

Air Force 42

Navy 32



2009

Air Force 40

Navy 37



2008

Air Force 64

Navy 38



2007

Air Force 51

Navy 60

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei

If you're the type to worry about Eastern, then...

worry about Air Force. Using end season FEI rank as a proxy for 'how good are you', Air Force is consistently been better than EMU over the past five seasons. Air Force ranged between 40th and 79th among FBS teams (though that 79 was last year), while Eastern hovers around the 90th and 100th range. However, I wouldn't recommend worrying about Air Force (*knock on wood*)

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei

Bill Bentley

Bill Bentley, a rookie on the Lions is one of them. If he can convince some of his teammates to contribute, even just one of Stafford, Suh, or Megatron, this thing will be funded real quick.

Any MGoMBAers -- which donation levels do you think have the highest margins for the charity?

Easy classes

Curtis' argument has truth to it, but stops short.

From my experience at LSA, easy classes and independent studies are available to basically every student at UM. Even a number of classes that are very challenging to get an 'A' in are fairly straightforward to get a B in, but difficult to fail. What makes a school good are opportunities to challenge students, and resources to help with those challenges. A lot of classmates, like me, chose to take the difficult classes, and it paid off. But I've seen students, athletes or otherwise, take the path of least resistance, getting Cs and Bs enough to graduate, but not learning or growing much, or taking classes that offer easy A's.

I'm sure there are other universities that have a much more rigorous curriculum that they require of every student, but what makes a school 'good' isn't whether or not their students elect to take Comm or Engineering classes. You can only control that to the degree of your admissions standards, which Curtis all but glosses over -- the Big Ten has more rigorous standards than the SEC. Unless the indepdent studies he mentions are easy to a UNC level, then they don't bear mentioning.

This is called

Dave Brandon creating the future

Got it backwards

You went to Michigan BECAUSE you're better than everyone else