Mike Lantry, 1972
- Member for
- 1 year 51 weeks
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|4 hours 15 min ago||To be fair...||
To be fair, there's nothing keeping that guy from going to Dallas. Perhaps he wants to see the Texas School Book Depository or go to Six Flags. He could even go to the Final Four games. I just don't expect Sparty's players to be on the court while he's there. ;-)
|4 hours 56 min ago||Yes but...||
True, but I believe the foul occurred after the buzzer.
|5 hours 5 min ago||Look Who's Got It!||
It's the most amazing thing in the history of sports! A guy almost got a rebound cleanly!
|9 hours 18 min ago||S-curve||
It couldn't hurt. However, I expect Michigan will need to go further than UW in the BTT to pass them. Their out-of-conference wins are much better than Michigan's.
|9 hours 23 min ago||Fouling when up 3||
This is why you should almost never do the whole foul-while-up-3 bit. Maryland gave Virginia the time they needed to make that last play. Here's hoping the Terps can keep it going through the rest of OT.
|2 days 6 hours ago||Ah, the halcyon days of yore...||
Back when men were men and a charge was a charge. This would have been called a block under the current rules. :-( (Of course, Syracuse fans were sure it was a block last year too, but them's the breaks). It was one hell of an ending to a great game, though.
|2 days 9 hours ago||On the other hand...||
This will provide additional fodder for the RCMB crowd. Oh well, they need something to do anyway, to take their mind off of the injuries and the weird guys.
Besides, if this site really had a Sparty obsession, the word would be 'Staee.' ;-)
|2 days 10 hours ago||Syracuse||
I agree. In my mind, anyway, Morgan had already erased the missed tip when he sealed the game against Syracuse. Besides, Burke missed the layup in the first place. :-) Stauskas has the panache, and McGary has the infectious energy and charm, but it's Jordan Morgan's selfless work ethic that defines this team, and somebody is going to have some pretty big shoes to fill next year in terms of making sure things are done the Michigan way.
As much as I'm savoring the last few games of Morgan's career, I'm already looking forward to seeing him tweet his support during next year's Big Ten title defense (how cool does that sound, BTW?). Beilein is starting to make a habit of growing players who spend their time after leaving school continuing to contribute to the program.
Finally, kudos to BiSB. The next time Beilein is recruiting an undersized, not-that-athletic center, all he has to do is print out this article. "Come to Michgan, be the next Jordan Morgan, and in five years people will be writing things like this about you." Instant commitment. ;) (Of course, it only works because every single word is true. :-)
|3 days 7 hours ago||Michigan and Tempo||
I'm convinced that the whole "Michigan can't handle teams that like to run" thing comes from a superficial study of Michigan's tempo numbers. KenPom has Michigan's adjusted tempo at 63.1, good for 321 of 351 Division I teams. Wisconsin (Wisconsin!) is at 64.1, cracking the top 300 at #293. I think the analysis as as follows:
Michigan has slow tempo numbers. Therefore, Michigan cannot do well against teams with high tempo numbers. That is all.
There was a good article earlier this season on Grantland -- "[...] Beilein’s offenses are so fluid and effective that they retain their sense of drama. Michigan is slow, but never boring." Michigan can play in transition, even if a couple of players do sometimes throw the baseball-pass breakout too long. (Get well soon, Mitch!). You could do a whole GIF of nothing but GRIII transition dunks and it would be mesmerizing. Sure, Michigan struggles at transition defense -- so do most teams. But they (usually) don't turn the ball over. Fast-paced teams tend to generate a lot of opposition turnovers, but the causality gets reversed in the storytelling. In my mind, the fast tempo is a result of the turnovers, not a cause. Generating a turnover makes that opponent's possession a short one; generating a transition opportunity makes your possession a short one as well.
The ten fastest teams by AdjT are Northwestern St., VMI, Maine, Nebraska-Omaha, Arkansas, MVSU, BYU, Delaware, Iowa, and Hampton. This isn't exactly a murderer's row.
Further, the D-I average tempo is 66.6. So, Michigan comes in 3.5 possessions shy, or approximately 5%. The average possession is about 36 seconds long; the average possession in a Michigan game is about 38 seconds long.
Anyway, bring on the fast-paced teams. We can always use more transition 3s and highlight-reel dunks. :-)
|3 days 8 hours ago||Kudos||
"[S]ince I don't want to encourage this behavior, you'll have to find the link elsewhere."
Bravo! Unfortunately, it won't have much of an effect -- people will still buy them. :-(
At least you should be able to read the player names on these (a huge problem at the Outback Bowl), and you'll be able to tell who's whom regardless of if they're coming or going (UTL). So, they could be worse.
|5 days 13 hours ago||I think those are the old rules||
Those appear to be the 2008 tiebreaking procedures. It looks like they were changed in 2012. I'm not able to find the 2014 procedures specifically listed on the Big Ten website, but here are the 2013 rules:
A. Two-team tie:
1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season.
2. Each team's record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings (or in the case of a tie for the championship, the next highest position in the regular-season standings), continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
b. When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).
|1 week 2 days ago||Updated Win Probabilities||
KenPom agrees with your analysis; Staee's probability of winning out goes from 16% to 18%; Michigan's stays the same, at 44% (within the limits of rounding, anyway). Accordingly, the estimates of Michigan's title chances drop slightly. I didn't run the complete analysis, but the only scenario where Iowa or Ohio's record mattered was the chance of an outright title should Michigan lose out, which was never very likely in the first place. Take yesterday's estimates, subtract a percentage point or two, and you're likely right on.*
Having said that, the part of my fan psyche that says "never take anything for granted" is happy to be able to scratch two more contenders from the list. :-) Michigan is now guaranteed no worse than the #3 seed in the Big Ten tournament.
* There is a significant chance that the error inherent in these percentages is large enough that the actual chances, whatever they are, haven't changed at all. But, for want of better data... :-)
|1 week 2 days ago||It's a no-lose situation||
Either Iowa loses, which eliminates them from Big Ten title contention, or Tom Crean loses. It's a no-lose situation!
|1 week 3 days ago||You're quite welcome||
Thank you for your in-depth replies. I've given you a couple of upvotes to balance things out a little bit. :-)
I should be very clear about this -- upsets happen all the time. It is a common fallacy to extrapolate probability into certainty: "KenPom says Michigan has a 82% chance to win this game; therefore, Michigan will win." That's one of the reasons I've done this analysis, by the way -- the numbers are more meaningful when applied to the remainder of the season than they are when applied to an individual game. (i.e., I have more faith in the win/loss histogram than I do each individual game prediction).
Fans use win probability data because it's fun. Factoring the strength of the batter and the closer into the equation sounds good, but often the sample sizes are so small that you get less error simply by using the averages. (One of my pet peeves is the idea that a batter "owns" a pitcher, or vice versa, based upon a sample of 20 or 30 at bats).
If I had access to data about how teams fared against defensive schemes similar to Michigan's (which, unfortunately, seems to be "Let's play H-O-R-S-E!" far too often), I would love to incorporate it. :-)
Anyway, I will happily concede that none of this analysis will mean anything if Michigan doesn't go out and get the wins it needs down the stretch. But it's fun to talk about nonetheless.
|1 week 3 days ago||No offense taken...||
No offense taken. As a Michigan fan, I never take any win for granted -- I think we've all learned that the hard way, unfortunately. :-( I take some comfort in the fact that Pomeroy's system, which has, in the past, proven to be reasonably good at judging the strength of various teams, gives us a good chance to win the games.
The non-math version is as follows: Win out and get the first outright Big Ten title since 1986. Win two out of three and guarantee at least a share of the title, and then root for Iowa or Ohio (ugh) to beat Staee. Win one out of three, and there's still a chance that we'll back into a share of the title, but we'll all be sad anyway.
Of course, that's not really enough for a diary. ;-)
|1 week 3 days ago||My pleasure...||
I'm glad you've enjoyed the posts. I definitely plan to have an update this weekend. In a perfect world, the posts keep shrinking as teams get eliminated. :-)
|1 week 3 days ago||Odds of winning each game||
I got these from Ken Pomeroy's site at www.kenpom.com ($). As of today, he has Michigan at 82% to beat Minnesota, 63% to win at Illinois, and 86% to beat Indiana. These numbers may fluctuate from day to day depending upon what each team does and, to a lesser extent, what everyone's opponents do.
|1 week 4 days ago||All but assured...||
He's saying unless they lose three of their final four games, they're all but assured of a title Meaning, if they go 2-2 down the stretch, Staee has to win out to prevent Michigan from claiming a share of the title, and KenPom doesn't think it's likely that Staee will win out.
Of course, we'd all prefer to avoid the situation entirely by having Michigan win out. :-)
|1 week 6 days ago||Coach of the Year||
Coach of the Year awards always pretty much always go to the coach with low expectations who rises above them or to Tom Izzo. Beilein probably deserved to win in 2011 or 2012, but 2012 was an Izzo year and in 2011 they gave it to Matt Painter; presumably, he rose further above similar expectations. The last time a Michigan coach won CoY? 1985, Bill Frieder.
I think Beilein should be Coach of the Year, but if Tim Miles gets it, I won't complain. If it's anybody else, though...
|1 week 6 days ago||Sauntering onto the court||
I have never understood why opposing coaches don't instruct their players to watch for this and run a play right through Izzo. If a player makes contact — even one without the ball — doesn't the ref pretty much have to call the technical? I mean, granted, they should probably call it regardless, but since every referee in the college game seems content to pretend it's not happening, I don't see why some coach wouldn't roll the dice and see if they could force the call to be made.
|1 week 6 days ago||MSU vs Ohio & Iowa||
When I wrote this originally, I tried to see if there was any way to eliminate the possibility of sharing the title based upon the upcoming schedule (e.g., Statee and Iowa can't both win out because they play each other). It turned out that I could only get it to matter if I was trying to calculate B1G tournament seeding -- at this point, the affects the possibility of a multiway tie, but it doesn't affect the possibility of sharing the title in the first place. Since I've never really cared for the B1G tournament, I didn't bother with that analysis. :-) Suffice it to say that Michigan's chances of getting the #1 seed are excellent, and they can lock up a top-4 seed with one more win (the only way they fall to #5 is to lose out, have Ohio or Nebraska win out, and have all of the teams in between win most of their games).
Obviously, the biggest (unanswerable) question is how accurate the per-game predictions are. Considering the calculated outcomes, I hope they're accurate indeed. :-)
|1 week 6 days ago||Just win out...||
I'm sure the team is busy taking it one game at a time. As fans, I think we get to look ahead. ;-)
|1 week 6 days ago||Wait a second...||
Rankings based upon the longest current winning streak?! Brilliant! Make this man an AP Top 25 voter!
|2 weeks 2 hours ago||Best Player on the Best Team||
Petteway shouldn't get B1G POY consideration, but not because of his team's play. Rather, because people are looking at the wrong stats. Petteway scores a lot, but he's very inefficient doing it. His ORtg is a good, but not great, 105.2, and his eFG is an acceptable, but hardly stellar, 51.0% (49% on 2s, 36% on 3s). His advantage, such as it is, is in possessions used (30.9%) and percentage of shots (31.6%). Simply put, Petteway is Nebraska's offense. Still, on a per-possession basis, Stauskas (ORtg 125.9) torches him -- he's scoring almost as many points as Petteway whilst taking two-thirds as many shots.
I'm just glad to see McDermott put up a good game. For a brief, confusing period earlier today, Gary Harris was listed as Player of the Day on KenPom's fanmatch page. Admittedly, only the Michigan/Staee game was final, but how could Harris even have been the player of the game?! Dude was 4/13 from downtown with a 4:3 A/TO ratio. Maybe KenPom is starting to take grit and injuries and Izzoness into account or something. :-)
|2 weeks 7 hours ago||Streaming Audio||
FYI - I've been able to get streaming audio on my iPhone via the "Live Audio" link on mgoblue.com. It ends up playing in Safari. From time to time, there are also TuneIn feeds from around the radio network that forget to block themselves out, but it's been hit or miss this season.
Just in case it comes up again in the future. :-)
|2 weeks 2 days ago||Hemingway App||
Sorry, I'm unimpressed by the Hemingway App. Not only does it not render properly on any of the three browsers I tested -- maybe they're the last IE holdouts, fighting against the tide of history -- but it appears that their main criterion is the number of words in a sentence. I was able to get up to a level 25 without too much difficulty, and while writing something that would have been quite easy to understand, even for someone who's never been to 25th grade (er, all of us?)
My favorite part was its exhortation that I should use "0 or fewer" adverbs. I usually like adverbs, as a general rule, although certainly they can be overused, particularly when one is being exceptionally snarky. However, I have never seen a piece of prose that used a negative number of adverbs; I think I would enjoy it greatly.
This was a level 13 before adding the final sentence, and a level 12 thereafter, although I doubt that there was truly much of a difference in its comprehensibility between the two.
Go Blue; beat Staee!
|3 weeks 1 day ago||Seattle||
Seattle, Denver, and Miami are all small geographically -- the city line doesn't stretch that far from the center -- but in the midst of good-sized metropolitan areas. The Denver MSA is 2.6MM people, the Seattle / Tacoma MSA is 3.6MM, and the Miami / Ft Lauderdale / West Palm Beach MSA is 5.8MM. Detroit is actually the 14th largest MSA by population (4.3MM). There are an awful lot of people in the suburbs.
Of course, I'd be tempted to argue that the smallest city with an NFL franchise is Foxboro, Mass. :-)
|3 weeks 4 days ago||Tale of Two Points||
Tale of Two Points: It was the best of shots, it was the worst of shots?
I think Amir Williams's takeout of DWJ was absolutely epic. As much as Walton carried the team in the second half, for that shot to go in would've taken backboard love (aka dumb luck) of Brustian proportions. Watching the frosh seal the deal with three free throws? Priceless. (Although I have been hoping that "The Ball Knows" would have turned into a tag / t-shirt / meme by now. I am disappoint). I especially loved that, as you pointed out, it made up for the Zak Irvin touch foul / Ross dive at the end of the first half, the only difference being that I don't think Walton had to embellish.
If this team continues to play at this level, an outright Big Ten title is theirs to lose. Go Blue!
|3 weeks 4 days ago||The Ball Knows||
By this time tomorrow, there will be a 'Derrick Walton the ball knows' tag on this blog. :)
What a game! Go Blue!
|3 weeks 5 days ago||5 seconds||
That might be the first itme I've ever seen the five-second closely guarded rule invoked. It was legit, though. :-(