also duty-free guys falling over and grabbing their shins
|15 weeks 6 days ago||Doing well in calc 3 really||
Doing well in calc 3 really hinges on you being able to work in 3D more than anything else. Do that and it's easy. If you can't do that, you're going to have a bad time. IME that's what hung people up in the class.
|15 weeks 6 days ago||Doing this at michigan is||
Doing this at michigan is really really dumb. Do it at a community college and save all the money. No one gives a damn about where you took calc 3 in high school.
|36 weeks 4 hours ago||That problem isn't really||
That problem isn't really applicable here. A football game can be played in just about any soccer stadium.
|51 weeks 2 days ago||Tigers pitchers||
Tigers pitchers rankings:
1) Sanchez - Better FIP and xFIP. Would have higher WAR if not for time lost due to injury
2) Scherzer - Pretty damn close to Sanchez, but if you're using wins to measure his season you're doing it wrong. Scherzer is getting a crazy amount of run support, and he's only responsible for a few of those. Would be fine with either of these guys starting game 1.
T3) Verlander/Fister - Unless Verlander has been chillin all year waiting to amp it up in the playoffs, he's obviously a tier below Scherzer and Sanchez, and about even with Fister. Verlander's rate stats (xFIP, FIP, etc) are a bit lower than Fister but Verlander goes deeper into games. Now, maybe the Tigers managment know Verlander has been cruising this year and will amp it up for the playoffs, but he's definitely not a game 1 or 2 starter at this point.
|1 year 40 weeks ago||You know what? I'm not really||
You know what? I'm not really sure. I absolutely hated Ohio state, and we got screwed hard by a bad call in 2007. But the program is so young, and frankly not very good in the beginning, that's its really hard to say.
|1 year 40 weeks ago||This isn't it either, there||
This isn't it either, there are plenty of schools with similar policies. Akron gets a ton of really good players because they get to not only play for a good coach, they get to play for a guy who determines national team appearances.
|1 year 40 weeks ago||Northern Ohio isn't that good||
Northern Ohio isn't that good for soccer actually. Illinois and
The reason Akron is good is that porter is the U-23 men's national team coach. That's a pretty damn good recruiting pitch.
|1 year 40 weeks ago||fuck that's advantage you||
fuck that's advantage you stupid ass ref
|1 year 40 weeks ago||Sucks we lost the||
Sucks we lost the toss.
Michigan really needs to focus on keeping it's width. They've been ridiculously focused up the middle and way too direct.
|1 year 40 weeks ago||Getting to half 0-0 would be||
Getting to half 0-0 would be a major victory.
|1 year 40 weeks ago||Crazy wind, making it hard to||
Crazy wind, making it hard to dribble forward.
|1 year 40 weeks ago||This game is extremely||
This game is extremely important beyond the B1G championship game. As of Nov 6th, Michigan is 28th in RPI and MSU is 60th. With a win over Wisconsin (82nd) and Northwestern (41st) in the B1G tournament, a loss today would probably keep Michigan's RPI ranking around 28th next week. With 26 teams getting at large bids (22 auto qualify), Michigan should be in regardless, while MSU has to win to have a chance.
A win and an autobid is still extremely important for Michigan, because a win would improve their draw significantly, possibly putting them in a seeded position (with a first round bye) and definitely getting HFA for the first game.
|1 year 47 weeks ago||OP, you just used total||
OP, you just used total passing yards, which should essentially disqualify you from ever talking about statistics again. Anyways, there is a data set that measures play by play success accounting for SoS, down and distance, impact on the game and more. We don't have to write 1000 words that don't actually say anything.
This is S&P. S&P measures offensive efficiency. They also break it down into rushing and passing. Michigan was #5 in the overall metric, and only behind Auburn in rushing efficiency. They were #5 passing and the 13th most efficient team in passing downs. Shocker, the passing offense worked pretty well when wide receivers were routinely left uncovered due to defenders freaking out about the run game.
Before you get into 'BUT THAT WAS TATE'! Forcier's YPA was a full yard lower and he had a much higher interception rate. Those numbers above are Denard's.
I think the problem you're having is that you don't quite understand the position of the people who are annoyed that the passing game isn't as effective as it was in 2010. We don't think Denard 2010 is Henne. We think that, in the right scheme, Denard has the ability to be amazingly effective. Yet we simply haven't done that since Borges has become coordinator.
Personally, I don't think this is Borges' fault, he is who we think he is and etc. Yet it's frustrating to watch an opportunity like Denard's senior year not be fully taken advantage of.
|2 years 37 weeks ago||Men can't win arguments,||
Men can't win arguments, because even when we are right, we still end up losing overall.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||Screenshot here (obv trolling inside)||
The angle right down the line is indisputable.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||SC Has a great screenshot||
Notice how the angle showing him short is much closer to a direct shot down the goal line. Clearly short.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||Right, so there's this chip||
Right, so there's this chip in every ball, when it crosses a 55 yard plane, lights up a camera, then we go to review if it's close isn't convoluted?
I never said it was possible, just unnecessary. Goal line cameras are plenty enough.
Nevermind that none of this solves the problem presented by this play.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||Eventually someone will come||
Eventually someone will come up with a screenshot. It was obviously short. The ball may have been obscured, but unless fitz was carrying it outside his arm invisibly he wasn't in.
And the shot I'm refering to was as goal line as you get.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||How are you going to sync the||
How are you going to sync the chip to the cameras? You're about to build one convoluted system to attempt to solve something that really isn't a major problem.
Chip in the ball stuff is much better for stuff like soccer, where all that matters is if the ball crossed.
This is really ridiculous. The video got this right. Even with a chip in the ball this is getting called back.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||So here's the only thing||
So here's the only thing image I can find atm:
The video is frozen a bit late, so the ball is a bit further back than it appears. It's also important to remember the plane of the goaline is running diagonal slightly shifting to the left as you go up. That means the goal line directly behind toussaint isn't actually where toussaint is. You need to translate fitz in the same way the goal line is distorted.
This angle doesn't overturn the angle that clearly showed him short.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||How is a chip going to||
How is a chip in the football going to determine when the football player is down?
This is just a silly idea.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||The side that showed he was||
The side that showed he was in was not on the goal line. This created the illusion that he was in.
The side that showed him out was facing straight down the goal line and showed that he definitely not in. This was enough evidence imo to overturn.
The fact that one side showed him in doesn't overturn the obviously superior angle.
If someone could get some screenshots of each one that'd be great.
|2 years 45 weeks ago||Pretty hilarious that he||
Pretty hilarious that he describes our offense as a 'jump-ball offense'
LOL sorry dude, we'll be running just a bit more.
|2 years 47 weeks ago||A few things||
Saying Michigan is #19 in FEI is misleading. They're actually 13th. However, the data is so thin that they use projective data to produce less laughable rankings.
The S&P is not, repeat IS NOT, considering SoS yet. They won't until there's enough data available.
Also, as Football Outsiders website says quite clearly, it's way too early to be using these statistics they way you are.
|2 years 50 weeks ago||Dammit Brian, the correct||
Dammit Brian, the correct answer is:
Epic moment missed imo.
|2 years 51 weeks ago||Bodog isn't leaving at the||
Bodog isn't leaving at the end of the year, they are simply rebranding.
|2 years 51 weeks ago||Looking for WMU student||
Looking for WMU student tickets if anyone wants some beer money!
|2 years 52 weeks ago||I for one, welcome our new||
I, for one, welcome our new mgoblog overlords.
|2 years 52 weeks ago||If the marketing director||
If the marketing director says 'Dude, I don't have to do anything', then he wouldn't have a job for very long. Existences have to be justified.
|3 years 5 weeks ago||I took some classes at||
I took some classes at Schoolcraft for summer school because it was cheaper... and this definitely isn't true.
It was nice to take my second semester of physics there though.
|3 years 6 weeks ago||Congrats to jeter, but thank||
Congrats to jeter, but thank god I won't have to hear about him chasing 3000 anymore.
Also, congrats to jeter, lol @ the yankees for his new contract.
|3 years 16 weeks ago||FEI accounts for your||
FEI accounts for your criticisms... you clearly have no idea how it works.
|3 years 16 weeks ago||Some attempt at normalization||
Some attempt at normalization is better than nothing, and FEI is orders of magnitude better than this attempt.
|3 years 16 weeks ago||Seems like a much easier way||
Seems like a much easier way of doing this would be to simply look at FEI and S&P rankings. The grunt work here has already been done for you.
SDSU FEI Offensive Ranking is 12th, Defense 45th. Those are SoS adjusted.
For comparison, Mich was 2 and 108.
Jeez those defensive numbers are always tough to take.
|3 years 23 weeks ago||My cousin was on the UM Swim Team||
He set multiple all-time state records in breastroke. He did not receive a scholarship and was All-Big Ten. Michigan recruits kids that swim competitively nationally.
The state record for 50 yard dash in high school is 20.36, which wouldn't be good for the 50th best time at Michigan ever.
I'm not saying to not go for it or whatever, but it's a longshot.
|3 years 28 weeks ago||This trend of bastardizing||
This trend of bastardizing stats to discredit the star system is disheartening.
|3 years 29 weeks ago||The only renovation that||
The only renovation that would make sense is a demolition. The dome needs to go and the capacity needs to drop as well.
Also, with the way the local economy is in SE Michigan, it doesn't make a ton sense for an MLS team to expand here yet. There's a ton of risk, and the MLS is barely profitable as it is.
|3 years 29 weeks ago||It's a good idea, but the MLS||
It's a good idea, but the MLS doesn't want a Stadium like the Silverdome. The MLS wants soccer specific stadiums with reasonable capacities. The silverdome is neither.
|3 years 29 weeks ago||Add this to losing Snape (Who||
Add this to losing Snape (Who mainly dealt with the forwards and attacking roles) and Meram and there's a ton of work to do up front for next year.
|3 years 29 weeks ago||Ugh, not entirely surprising,||
Ugh, not entirely surprising, but disappointing nevertheless.
|3 years 30 weeks ago||It should automatically push||
It should automatically push an update to tell you there's a new one, no need to F5!
|3 years 30 weeks ago||Just as a warning A bunch||
Just as a warning
A bunch of people did this on another forum last year, and they were charged full price the next year. So, if you do this, keep an eye on it.
|3 years 31 weeks ago||lol It's definitely against||
lol It's definitely against NCAA rules. If you're part of the athletic department, you can't gamble on any NCAA sport, nor can you gamble on any pro games where the sport is also played in the NCAA.
Bodog will also close the action if there's huge movement one way or the other.
|3 years 32 weeks ago||Stanford with a 3-3-5 look on||
Stanford with a 3-3-5 look on 3rd down.... doesn't Harbaugh know that can't work in BIG TEN FOOTBAW?
|3 years 32 weeks ago||Que? Wisconsin ran the||
Wisconsin ran the ball an absurd 46 times, averaged about a yard per carry less than their season average. Their YPA was also significantly down. TCU did pretty well.
|3 years 32 weeks ago||This should be obvious, but||
This should be obvious, but those people probably have other reasons for supporting RR that outweigh his mistakes and convince them that RR is best for the program.
|3 years 32 weeks ago||Count me in for RR as well.||
Count me in for RR as well.
|3 years 33 weeks ago||If only there was a stat that||
If only there was a stat that adjusted for opponent strength and looked comprehensively at offensive output.
Michigan is #3.
|3 years 35 weeks ago||If only there was a stat that||
Sheesh, what you're describing is why it's bad to sortbytotaldefensebecomeexpert.
|3 years 35 weeks ago||Some stats for ya...||
Some stats for ya...
FEI rank, Defense, WVU.
|3 years 36 weeks ago||LOL no. Believe it or not,||
LOL no. Believe it or not, the MLS is a serious thing, and they don't let their players walk out on to a football field just for shits and giggles.
|3 years 36 weeks ago||This Just Isn't True||
"At the UCF game a friend of mine turned to me and said in all seriousness "he's better than Robbie Findley," and I thought to myself "this is literally true." "
Umm no. While I'm not a fan of Robbie Findley's inclusion into the world cup team, the pro and international game is at such a higher level than college the comparison is ridiculous. If Meram manages to play a 100 games at a pro level and score 30 goals he'd be the most successful soccer player to come out of Michigan other than Alexi Lalas.
|3 years 36 weeks ago||The club team, under Burns,||
The club team, under Burns, won national championships in 1997 and 1998.
That 2005 team was sick though, if I do say so myself.
|3 years 36 weeks ago||It's important to note that||
It's important to note that soccer is very different from the NFL in that the collegiate game is not essentially a minor league system. Take a look at the USMNT's roster and you'll see that most players either spent a year or two in college or none at all.
Akron doesn't have 8 of the top 10 pro prospects in the nation, even if you take Ive's list as gold (and he's pretty good imo). Top tier prospects like Andy Najar and Spector play for academies either in the US or abroad until they're ready. Akron has 8 of the top 10 collegiate prospects, which is still pretty crazy if you ask me, but the difference is important.
College soccer is looked down on by the MLS and other leagues, and for good reason. The NCAA has more than a few rules that really hurts the quality of the game because they allow teams to de-emphasize skill in favor of running up and down the field. As US Soccer improves, less and less top tier kids are going to go the college route, and this will be great for the USMNT.
|3 years 36 weeks ago||He'll be drafted. I'm not||
He'll be drafted. I'm not sure if he'll play for a full MLS squad right away.
|3 years 37 weeks ago||NOOOOOOO! First Russia||
First Russia and Qatar, now this? I've had to handle way too many bad internet rumors today.
|3 years 37 weeks ago||Right, because a public||
Right, because a public announcement of support isn't normally a prelude to a firing.
|3 years 37 weeks ago||Saw this on umgoblog, TELL ME||
Saw this on umgoblog, TELL ME ITS NOT TRUE!
|3 years 37 weeks ago||It's actually chocolate milk,||
It's actually chocolate milk, and fwiw, Michigan athletes have been told to drink chocolate milk well before Barwis was there.
|3 years 37 weeks ago||Hmmm who is worse? I||
Hmmm which is worse?
I choose OP. At least RR haters have some sort of argument other than WAAAAH I have to skip past some free content.
|3 years 37 weeks ago||Just to be clear, I didn't||
Just to be clear, I didn't make this, the guys on the team did. It ended up on my facebook wall though.
Delightfully terrible is a great description, although Q may not like me describing it that way.
|3 years 37 weeks ago||This is nice, but it's||
This is nice, but it's unnecessary. FEI controls for SoS.
|3 years 37 weeks ago||It's almost like you don't||
It's almost like you don't realize that this is accounted for. Weird.
|3 years 37 weeks ago||You don't need to control for||
You don't need to control for variability in scheduling. The FEI and S&P statistics already do that.
|3 years 37 weeks ago||It's contagious because: 1)||
It's contagious because:
1) It allows you to write pretty much exactly what you're thinking
2) It allows you to change topics quickly
3) It lets a casual reader know exactly what is going in the wall of text you just created
|3 years 37 weeks ago||All Big Ten Awards tend to go||
All Big Ten Awards tend to go to upperclassmen, which is why there's LOLs like Persa coming in over TP and Denard.
|3 years 37 weeks ago||Again, I'm not sure what else||
Again, I'm not sure what else there is to say. You just said, "Look at our offense in our 5 losses! It sucked!"
If you were actually looking for some truth regarding our improvement, why are you limiting your sample size as much as possible, using an analysis that doesn't adjust for strength of schedule and then not even comparing the results to years prior? All of the heavy lifting has already been done for you. If you like drive analysis, you should use FEI.
There's a reason that you don't do that, and it's obvious. What you really want to say can be summed up as UNACCEPTABLE, which OK, fine. At least it isn't blatantly intellectually dishonest like the arguments you've made so far.
|3 years 37 weeks ago||I'm sorry, but have you||
I'm sorry, but have you tasted the crust of Domino's pizza lately? How dare you question the man behind that?
|3 years 37 weeks ago||This is done under in the FEI||
This is done under in the FEI part of my diary, and there is a 40 spot improvement.
So yeah, don't know what else someone could really say at this point.
|3 years 37 weeks ago||I don't get it. You're||
I don't get it. You're purporting to be showing a lack of improvement, but then you show a very small decrease that you got only because you cherry picked your data, and then openly show a huge improvement in the second half?
WTF? That makes no sense whatsoever. Look at this 10 pt decrease, pay no attention to the 60pt increase right after. Jeez.
|3 years 37 weeks ago||Stopped Early||
I stopped at QB, where you said that starting a guy with next to no collegiate game experience running a new system will be a smooth transition.
|3 years 38 weeks ago||gooooooooooooooooooooool||
|3 years 38 weeks ago||BOOOOOYA||
|3 years 38 weeks ago||Sigh, the finishing, it's not||
Sigh, the finishing, it's not clinical.
|3 years 38 weeks ago||SC defense is clearly scared||
SC defense is clearly scared shitless, they are sagging back way too much.
|3 years 38 weeks ago||ARRRGH PUT THE BREAKAWAY IN||
ARRRGH PUT THE BREAKAWAY IN THE NET!
|3 years 38 weeks ago||In the early moments,||
In the early moments, Michigan is dominating. SC has had nothing but a few hopeful long balls down the sidelines.
|3 years 38 weeks ago||Michigan moving the ball real||
Michigan moving the ball real well up the left side so far.
|3 years 38 weeks ago||Wow great find on the||
Wow great find on the video!
Thank you very much!
|3 years 38 weeks ago||7-5 is basically what I||
7-5 is basically what I expected.
The team is significantly better from last year and the year before.
The defense has to get better given the youth.
We don't cheer for a douche like Pryor.
Bowling in Tempe.
|3 years 38 weeks ago||WVU||
How much for Casteel?
Maybe we can get a frequent buyer's discount?
|3 years 40 weeks ago||48 Teams make the tournament.||
48 Teams make the tournament. The top 16 teams get byes and home field advantage for the first game. After that round, teams travel to regional sites like the basketball tournament. It's single elimination the whole way.
We'll probably get a bye because our season long performance is pretty solid, we're 'hot', and we just beat 2 quality teams (Wisconsin isn't good). RPI is used as a factor in determining seeds, but it isn't the only thing that is used.
The Big Ten is a traditionally strong soccer conference, but that is based almost entirely on Indiana, which is one of the most successful soccer programs in the nation. They've won 7 national championships, second only to St Louis, and have had 10 players win the Hermann Trophy (think Heisman).
This year, the Big Ten is the #1 conference according to RPI, but voter's haven't given the Big Ten any respect, and they have no teams in the top 25. LOL polls obviously.
If the draw goes like it has in prior years, it will be televised on ESPN News or ESPNU. I'll make a thread or something when I find out what is going on.
|3 years 40 weeks ago||Meram goes end to end on a||
Meram goes end to end on a counter after a corner. 3-0
|3 years 40 weeks ago||PSU taking shots at Saad now||
PSU taking shots at Saad now when Saad isn't even on the ball now.
|3 years 40 weeks ago||How the hell is that not a||
How the hell is that not a yellow?
|3 years 40 weeks ago||Screamer by Meram after||
Screamer by Meram after cutting in.
|3 years 40 weeks ago||GOAL Michigan! Soony||
Soony Saad scores after a loltastic goalkeeping mistake. Wolverines hit a hopeful longball, a defensive miscommunication leads to the GK unnecessarily coming out and getting beat to the ball. Soony with a nice finish with the GK out.
|3 years 40 weeks ago||The McDonalds parking lot||
The McDonalds parking lot across from Wrigley seems like a good spot.
Maybe I should make the 10 minute walk, but even I don't care enough about this game.
|3 years 40 weeks ago||It's go time!||
|3 years 40 weeks ago||The quarterfinal wasn't on||
The quarterfinal wasn't on TV. According to the MSoccer Twitter account, it was a 'standard Meram celebration'
So yeah, whatever that means.
|3 years 40 weeks ago||I'm pretty sure that a win||
I'm pretty sure that a win would be Michigan's first big ten conference championship.
|3 years 40 weeks ago||2 min||
|3 years 40 weeks ago||Everyone probably got a very||
Everyone probably got a very stern talking to from Burns after Meram got a second yellow card yesterday for excessive celebration.
|3 years 40 weeks ago||Top prospects in the MLS get||
Top prospects in the MLS get a contract from adidas as well as the MLS, so they end up making >100k.
|3 years 40 weeks ago||Got something back now.||
Got something back now.
|3 years 40 weeks ago||Wisconsin has successfully||
Wisconsin has successfully killed the game. There's very little creativity from Michigan in the final third at the moment.
|3 years 40 weeks ago||For some perspective on||
For some perspective on Soony, he's already broken the single season goal scoring record as a freshman.
|3 years 40 weeks ago||You have to declare. Peri||
You have to declare. Peri Marosevic did this a few years ago and went in the top 10. Peri had more accolades outside of Michigan soccer though, he was captain of a youth USMNT.
|3 years 40 weeks ago||Wisconsin is playing a||
Wisconsin is playing a 4-4-1-1, Michigan is playing a 4-3-3. Michigan is controlling play. Wisconsin is really hanging back, which has allowed Quijano to get high up the field.
Soony has put a ball off the post and put a 25 yarder just over the bar. This is the first time I've had a chance to watch him, and he's special. His ball control, speed and shot are amazing. He's good enough that he should strongly consider going pro as soon as possible.
|3 years 40 weeks ago||Yeah Title IX puts Men's||
Yeah Title IX puts Men's Soccer in a tough spot because it limits teams to 9.9 scholarships per year.
|3 years 40 weeks ago||LOL oops on the OP. I'm||
LOL oops on the OP. I'm really excited for the team, a lot of them are friends that were freshmen my senior year. Following the game through the team's liveblog sucked pretty hard. It'll be nice to watch it on TV.
|3 years 41 weeks ago||HEELLLLLLLLLLLSSSSSS||
|3 years 41 weeks ago||Any PCEP Grad From That Time Period||
Will drop Plymouth more than a couple middle fingers. The administration in that school was completely ridiculous when I was there.
Congrats to BB though!
|3 years 41 weeks ago||NCAA Clearinghouse Regs||
Should be good to go.
|3 years 41 weeks ago||I would hope we're going for||
I would hope we're going for as many athletic skill position players as possible, and that Hart has nothing to do with this.
|3 years 42 weeks ago||I'm not embellishing at all.||
I'm not embellishing at all. If anyone is changing the story at all it's you.
The fact he hit someone in the parking lot pokes a mighty big hole in the, 'He was fiiiine, just crossing the street' crap that a MSU fan posted. He was intoxicated enough that he hit something before he got on the road. He fucked up bad.
|3 years 42 weeks ago||Police report states that||
Police report states that Rucker was involved in a hit and run. It only gets better.
|3 years 42 weeks ago||For Those Interested, Here's A Link to the Police Report|
|3 years 45 weeks ago||Not Really a Big Deal||
It's a clear red, but it's one of those stupid reds where no one is gonna get hurt instead of something actually dangerous.
If you want something to make you really hate OSU soccer, check this video out. This is a video from the 2007 Michigan-OSU game that OSU won in OT on a phantom goal. Michigan was basically the last team out of the tournament that year. A tie would have given them a good chance at making it in.
|3 years 46 weeks ago||Well, yeah, the win over||
Well, yeah, the win over wisconsin is much more impressive than our win against Indiana
|3 years 46 weeks ago||No one really has any idea||
No one really has any idea what IU is all about this year... Their SoS according to Sagarin is 200th (!).
The predictor has them at 65.99 and Mich at 79.68, so -13.5 doesn't seem too far off.
|3 years 47 weeks ago||Because rewarding hard work,||
Because rewarding hard work, no matter who you are, is an important principle to have instilled in your football team. It's worth way more than Gardner's redshirt.
|3 years 47 weeks ago||Still Going||
|3 years 48 weeks ago||Read this, come back later||
That is all
|3 years 48 weeks ago||You are right sir. The||
You are right sir.
The college soccer OT/substitution rules are so awful.
|3 years 48 weeks ago||Wow amazing.||
|3 years 49 weeks ago||While I'd love to declare||
While I'd love to declare Denard as the best player in the NCAA, I think a better description would be 'the player with the best two weeks in the NCAA'
|3 years 49 weeks ago||(No subject)||
|3 years 49 weeks ago||I don't think you've ever||
I don't think you've ever been to ford field lol
|3 years 49 weeks ago||Thanks for the great content on labor day!||
Extra miler imo.
|3 years 50 weeks ago||I hope they put 8 in the box||
If they do, the bubble screen and short passing game will be open for big gains all day.
|3 years 50 weeks ago||While Drob is obviously||
While Drob is obviously amazing, what impresses me most about the highlights is the offensive line. Almost every big run by robinson has a lineman or two 15 yards down the field destroying somebody.
|4 years 6 days ago||There's a reason why Michigan's odds are better...||
And it's because people are more willing to place bets on teams that they support or have a big name. It's why England, the United States, and many Euro teams were both massively overrated in the World Cup.
It'd be pretty cool if we had a 2% chance at winning a national championship, but let's be real, we don't have that good of a chance.
|4 years 6 weeks ago||Fangraphs.com scouting report||
Fangraphs.com scouting report says 89-94 mph fastball and a curveball. He's posted great K rates in A and AA last year, but that has fallen off some in AAA this year (His BB rate has improved though). Sample size is pretty small though in AAA.
He's one of the Tigers' top ten prospects, hopefully he does well and someone else gets optioned back down when Galaragga comes back.
|4 years 8 weeks ago||According to||
According to theshinguardian.com, Algeria will be going to a 2 striker system. Who knows if that will be a 4-4-2 or their typical 3-5-2.
Either way, I like staring Dempsey and Holden. If they come out in a 4-4-2, we should play our standard 4-4-2. A lone striker is much better against a 3 man backline because it allows the wings to be exposed better. So if they come out in that, have Dempsey fall back some into an ACM role so that we are in a 4-3-3 or 4-5-1 (with lots of attacking midfielders).
|4 years 8 weeks ago||The biggest difference||
The biggest difference between the two is that the iPhone is in Apple's safe little garden while Droid lets you go into the jungle. This leads to the iPhone being easier to use, but certain Droid phones will have features that the iPhone doesn't have.
Also, ATT sucks in Chicago, so that pushed me to Sprints Evo 4G.
|4 years 9 weeks ago||You're banking on England||
You're banking on England scoring two? Not very likely imo. First off, their offense has be awful. Secondly, they have no reason to press for a second goal and every reason to hold back once they get ahead.
|4 years 9 weeks ago||If you look at the group||
If you look at the group standings, Algeria still has a chance, so they will be playing. However, it's very likely that Algeria will have to win by 2 in order to advance because Slovenia has a +1 GD, owns the GS tiebreaker and it doesn't look like England is going to score a lot. Hopefully, Algeria comes to the same conclusion and presses.
Unfortunately for Algeria, this couldn't be better for us, because we are most effective on the counter. Algeria plays a 3-4-2-1 that shifts to a 5-4-1 on defense. Maybe I'll do a diary latter with pics and everything, but the way to attack this formation is to attack the wings, which means Dempsey and Donovan will have a lot of space. This is not good for the Algerians.
A good example of how well we can do against this type of system in this situation is the Egyptian game from the 2009 Confederations Cup. Egypt plays the same strange 3-4-2-1 and wanted to get a win so they could advance over Italy. They pressed some, and we pumped a quick goal in the first half. They pressed a lot in the second half, and we destroyed them after they wore out.
Basically, the fact Algeria needs a convincing win is going to make it easier to expose them in the back. Frankly, we should be able to absorb their weak attack.
|4 years 9 weeks ago||I completely agree that Edu||
I completely agree that Edu was shaky in possession, especially in the beginning of the half. That's to be expected though really. It was Edu's first world cup and I believe his first cap in a full international match since 2008 (He has had a lot of injury problems).
However, it's important to realize what his role is exactly on our team. The best analogy I can really think of is Ben Wallace (before he got old) on the 2004 Pistons. Did anyone care if we was full of fail on the offensive end in 2004? Of course not, as long as he racked up 15 rebounds and slowed down Shaq.
Now, to be fair to Edu, he's not Ben Wallace, he's capable of offensive flair. He scored for Rangers in the Old Firm game (it's a big deal) and he's damn good in the air in set pieces. It's unfortunate that ball didn't go in, because that would have been the biggest moment in his career. Edu took care of his job though, and that is more important than any offensive blunders.
|4 years 9 weeks ago||Of course there's such thing||
Of course there's such thing as a 3-2 draw... didn't you see our 1-1 win?
|4 years 9 weeks ago||England - Algeria result was||
England - Algeria result was pretty much ideal.
Slovenia 4pts GD +1 GS 3
USA 2pts GD 0 GS 3
England 2pts GD 0 GS 1
Algeria 1pts GD -1 GS1
For those of you who don't know, the first two tiebreakers are goal differential (GD) then goals scored (GS).
-Win and we're in
-Lose and we're out
-Tie and we're in IF Slovenia beats England
-Tie and we're in IF Slovenia ties England and England we maintain our GS lead (likely, an England tie is highly unlikely to be 2-2 or higher).
|4 years 9 weeks ago||I think you missed a lot in||
I think you missed a lot in this match Brain.
The substitutions were a big deal because of the change in personel-types and the changes in formation. We opened up the 2nd half in this:
Opposed to the 4-4-2 we had been playing. The Gomez sub pushed us into a 3-4-3.
I can't overemphasize how big of a deal the formation change was. We came out with the idea (myself included) that we would be able to connect around 11 Slovenes, and in retrospect, that was foolish. Switching to the 4-3-3 did two big things. First, it allowed the US to play a much more direct and athletic attack. The plan was obviously to find targets (Altidore mainly, Dempsey secondly) and get runs off of the target in. It also bypasses 6 of the 11 guys in front of the ball. Second, it shored up the center of the field (the 3 in a 4-3-3 is almost always all CMs), covered Gooch and Demerit, and allowed Bradley to be the box to box midfielder he's capable of being.
Also, Edu did fine. He wasn't there to be an offensive force. His job was to keep Gooch and Demerit from being exposed. The lack of coverage from CMs played a much larger role in the goals scored than anything else. Demerit and Gooch simply aren't good enough to be left on an island like Torres did time and again.
|4 years 9 weeks ago||It doesn't matter if the||
It doesn't matter if the Greek embellished or even if the Nigerian made contact. The rule is written in a way that even an attempt at violent conduct (and it certainly was) is a straight red. It was just a stupid moment for the Nigerian.
|4 years 9 weeks ago||'We also need to clamp down||
'We also need to clamp down outside the 18 quicker, they were popping some shots from 20-30 with some of our players just standing idle. Pressure is essential at that distance.'
Against a team that doesn't have a Wayne Rooney this is very true. However, I'm perfectly happy to let someone try their luck at 30 yards out on Howard. That shot doesn't score often, even when Lampard or Gerrard hitting it.
It's a pretty simple pick your poison situation, and our best expectation is give up long range shots instead of breakaways.
|4 years 9 weeks ago||Re: Michael Bradley Our||
Re: Michael Bradley
Our 4-2-2-2 formation is basically this in the back 8:
Against good opponents like Spain/England/Brazil/etc, Bradley sits deep in the empty bucket and tries to shut down the middle of the field. However, against sides like Slovenia or Mexico, he'll be much more offensive and be a true box-to-box central midfielder.
In WCQ, he scored 4 goals (several big ones too), so he's a capable offensive threat. That's just not we needed out of him Saturday.
|4 years 10 weeks ago||The entire budget for a sport||
The entire budget for a sport like soccer (budget ~1 million a few years ago) is going to be less than the amount Nebraska/Texas, and that normally includes 2-3 big trips per year. Adding one more can't be that more than the extra money coming in.
This would be a big plus for soccer because the conference would have more than the 7 teams it has now... the expansion wouldn't go into Nebraska or Texas either because they don't have teams.
Obviously this will be a little different for each sport, but I have a feeling someone in the B10 has thought about this already and determined the benefits will outweigh the costs.
|4 years 10 weeks ago||Quick Comment about Torres and Costa Rica||
He got pulled from that game because he was absolutely terrible defensively, and the CMs have to be responsible defensively in an empty bucket 4-4-2. Torres has looked good defensively recently though. He was going into tackles strong and not pussing out like he was last year.
|4 years 11 weeks ago||While Jozy should be OK, this||
While Jozy should be OK, this is really wrong and you are extrapolating way, way too much from a friendly.
|4 years 11 weeks ago||Not actually||
Not actually hospitalized:
U.S. Men's National Team forward Jozy Altidore sat out training today after incurring a mild right ankle sprain during Wednesday’s practice. Altidore’s status is considered day-to-day, and he will undergo a fitness test Friday to determine his availability for the June 5 friendly against Australia.
|4 years 11 weeks ago||Bornstein has had a few games||
Bornstein has had a few games where he's done fine, and he's perfect for some CONCACAF qualification matches. Depth is important during the absurdly long CONCACAF WCQ process, but if he's seeing significant minutes in the WC Finals something has gone terribly wrong.
|4 years 11 weeks ago||Vuvuzelas in the Big House is||
Vuvuzelas in the Big House is pretty much the worse idea ever.
|4 years 11 weeks ago||"I assume both Dempsey and||
"I assume both Dempsey and Altidore will make way for some combo of Gomez/Buddle/Findley,"
Holden is probably first in line to get subbed out, because Dempsey is one of the fittest guys on the team (you don't score the big late goals like he does if you aren't) and Holden can't be 100% match fit coming off of that broken foot/ankle.
|4 years 11 weeks ago||Unfortunately, Bornstein||
Unfortunately, Bornstein really is the 7th best back line defender we have, he's just out of his depth at the international level. The USMNT has come a long way though, because normally Bornstein would be the Jeff Agoos of the backline.
|4 years 27 weeks ago||DR as RB?||
It seems like a waste to keep DR on the bench so much of the game. Could he end up as a RB/WR?
|4 years 45 weeks ago||It is on TBS, so anyone with||
It is on TBS, so anyone with basic cable in the US should get the game. Just in case you didn't realize :)
|4 years 45 weeks ago||Trading him at a time when||
Trading him at a time when we'd get the absolute least value for him seems like a bad idea.
|4 years 45 weeks ago||The chart says go for it! And||
The chart says go for it!
And your example is ridiculous. We don't have a finite number of games to play. We should be trying to maximize our chances of winning each one.
|4 years 45 weeks ago||Coaches follow this chart? It||
Coaches follow this chart? It says down 8 with 3 minutes left, go for it if you get in 38% of the time, which sounds about right.
Well I guess some people think about it, but coaches don't have the balls to use it.
|4 years 45 weeks ago||You can use this simple model||
You can use this simple model with your own numbers and see the results. No one figures out the math anyways.
|4 years 45 weeks ago||I won't dispute that there||
I won't dispute that there are other variables at play.
I will submit that for the most part, coaches do not even consider doing this, and that other unknown variables will cancel out over time.
|4 years 45 weeks ago||This is valid at more than 2||
This is valid at more than 2 possession btw, just much simpler
|4 years 45 weeks ago||I looked for evidence who won||
I looked for evidence who won OT more, the tier or the team tied, but found nothing about it. Do you have some you can put up?
I am sure however that the momentum loss after missing a 2pt conversion explanation is not based evidence. I don't think a team will be much less motivated to score a TD down 8 compared to 7, and I'm sure you won't be able to prove it.
|4 years 45 weeks ago||Oh and I hope I didn't make||
Oh and I hope I didn't make any stupid math errors for once :)
I am sure about the result however.
|4 years 46 weeks ago||He's going on short rest,||
He's going on short rest, presumably, he'd tire much earlier than that. He'd also not have his best stuff. We'd also risk serious injury.
As for polanco not being a 10m+ player, well, his value from 2007-09 is $21.7m, $13.9m, and 15.1m. I also love how you go from telling me to stay away from stats and how they can be manipulated into anything then cite a stat that has the smallest overall sample. Do you realize how hypocritical that is?
You've completely missed the point of the whole debate btw, no one is disputing that Polanco has been a productive player. However, the Tigers have really dug themselves into a hole with some of the ridiculous contracts we've given out to guys like Willis, Bonderman, Robertson and Ordonez. That is about 50m right there for 3 guys who have no future with the team and 1 guy who is a shell of his former self. Sizemore will cost the team about 400k and has shown that he has the potential to be a solid MLB 2B. Polanco, if we give him half of his worth, would get ~8m. The Tigers may lose some value from Polanco leaving, but they will also shed his salary, which is important for a team that has too big of a payroll in a terrible economy.
|4 years 46 weeks ago||The big ten network wants to||
The big ten network wants to make money so they take the biggest game they can get. I don't see what's wrong with that.
If you can't see where you are then just use it as an excuse to go to a bar with some friends and have a good time. EZ game.
|4 years 46 weeks ago||I like the premise of your||
I like the premise of your analysis, but there just isn't enough data for this to mean much. I wouldn't draw the lines like you did either. Are they trend lines? If so, you should draw one line, probably a curve approaching a asymptote of 6 (or 7 for a td, not sure what you are using).
A few games later into the season and this type of analysis will be much more interesting.
|4 years 46 weeks ago||Mistakes happen and its not||
Mistakes happen and its not that big of a deal?
|4 years 46 weeks ago||"five innings out of Porcello||
"five innings out of Porcello tomorrow then turn it over to the bullpen. I agree Porcello ahs thrown a lot of innings this year and has exceeded expectations, but the season is on the line. I think his risk for injury is minimal but the info above about velocity reduction is interesting.
Pitchers are too pampered today with 5 days rest/ 5 man rotations, pitch counts and pitching 5-6 nnings then being replaced.
Can we sign Mickey Lolich to a one day contract and pitch him tomorrow? Look up his stats with the Tigers- especially 1970-1973. Simply amazing and he is never mentioned for the HOF."
There's very clear statistical evidence about the risks from increasing a pitchers workload from year to year. Porcello has already pitched way more than what we wanted him to this year.
As for your pitch count diatribe, did you follow any of the links I provided? Did you see how Porcello's velocity just drops off after 60 pitches? That is an obvious sign of fatigue, and just because some guy in a different era managed to throw a ton of pitches doesn't mean we should take risks with an arm that we have for a few more years before arbitration.
Oh and you forgot 'Get off my lawn'
"If I was DD I would give Polanco and two year contract. Gerald Laird being our second best player? I will have to be water boarded to believe that."
Believe it or not, most people value stats more than your opinion. Financial constraints from prior mistakes will simply force DD to call up some prospects like Sizemore, Ramirez and a few pitchers because we won't be able to afford free agents like Polanco. Polanco is going to be worth 10+ million a year next year. With sizemore, we'll be able to get similar value for the league minimum because Sizemore hasn't hit arbitration yet. It's a pretty easy business decision.
|4 years 46 weeks ago||"1. Why are we starting||
"1. Why are we starting Figaro tomorrow and not Porcello on 4 days rest? We lucked out with Bonine on Wednesday but this is pressing our luck a bit too far."
We aren't starting porcello because you can't pitch a 20 year old who is already way over the inning limit we set for the beginning of the year. If you look at a typical velocity chart for Porcello, you'll find his velocity decreases way too much later in games. This link will show how much he's been fading: http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/9/8/1021866/pitcher-profile-rick-...
Starting him with short rest after the amount of work he's put is not good for Porcello's health or the Tigers.
Figaro has been OK the two times he's started healthy. His one real bad outing came when he was hurt. He's supposed to be OK now. Frankly, I don't like starting him either, but we have no other options at this point. Porcello's arm is just to fragile to be pitching on short rest, he'll have to be our guy on Tuesday if we finished tied or to open up the series if we don't clinch by Sunday.
"Do the Tigers really think they can lose Polanco and play a rookie at 2B next year? Next to Cabrera he's been our best day to day player."
Our second best player, believe it or not, has been Gerald Laird.
Polanco has not had a very good year, and at 34, you have to expect that he won't get better. Sizemore has had a great year in Toledo with a much better bat than Polanco. We also have Sizemore at the league minimum while we'd have to pay polanco a free market deal. With the salary constraints that Dombrowski has put us in with the contracts given to Willis, Ordonez and Bonderman, that simply won't happen.
|4 years 46 weeks ago||You get to the right||
You get to the right conclusion but with the wrong argument. This is a classic example of correlation shown with no causation. Since I doubt that anyone will be able to come up with some solid rationale for some sort of causation, all this data presents is an example of variance.
|4 years 46 weeks ago||Gambler's Fallacy In this Post||
"It's a good thing that Michigan State is favored this weekend. How come? It is because of a strange statistical anomaly. The underdog in Michigan's road openers for more than 20 years has an uncanny knack of beating the spread, and very often pulling the upset."
This isn't a predictor at all of future performance. If you want to make an argument that the line is off because of x, y or z reasons that actually concern this game then great, but those prior games are independent results from the game tomorrow.
The results you've tabulated are just variance. The betting market wouldn't purposely allow such a glaring hole to last for this long because the market doesn't want to go broke.
|4 years 46 weeks ago||"Santiago at 2B. For some||
"Santiago at 2B. For some reason, Polanco, their best clutch hitter, wasn't playing. Should have played Placido at 2B and put Santiago at SS. Everett hits worse than your Grandma."
Well first off, Polanco is not our best clutch hitter. Anyways, did you see the game on the 30th? Polanco made a bad error and was probably held out because his back is bothering him again. Leyland wouldn't play Santiago for Polanco at this point unless he absolutely had to.
Everett and Santiago have about the same value overall as a player because Everett makes up the fact he can't hit well with his bat.
The person who needs to be taken off of the field right now is Brandon Inge. His error tonight was his third bad error in the last 6 games. He can't hit. While I appreciate the valiant effort he is putting in hurt, he's hurting us more by being on the field. Move Santiago to 3b (he doesn't have much range anyways) and keep Everett and Polanco up the middle.
|4 years 46 weeks ago||This is overlooking the fact||
This is overlooking the fact that if Verlander doesn't go in game 1, then Jackson is going twice in the first 4 games. Considering he's been awful the last 6 weeks or so (probably out of gas), that pretty much gives us no chance at winning the series.
|4 years 46 weeks ago||Even then no||
"if he hadn't blown that ONE save..."
Rodney blew a save against Cleveland. Assuming we won that game, the Tigers magic number would be 1 instead of 2, so they would not have clinched yet.
|4 years 46 weeks ago||Just not true||
The biggest reason the tigers haven't clinched is either an inept offense or a complete lack of an effective 4th or 5th starter.
|4 years 46 weeks ago||Thing that jumps out most at me||
Is the fact Illinois has only 7 trips in the RZ. I know that's a little out of scope, but wow, that's a bad number
|4 years 47 weeks ago||Another quick correction||
Soccer played Penn State only once last year, winning 2-0 at home. The big ten men's soccer schedule is setup so that each team plays all the teams in the conference only once, despite the league only having 7 teams.
Michigan has had problems with big ten play in most years since the program graduated from the club level in 2000. The team had a very good Big ten season last year, and big ten play is usually indicative of how good the team truly is. Look for Fuzetti to do well.