Recent Comments

This isn't it either, there are plenty of schools with similar policies. Akron gets a ton of really good players because they get to not only play for a good coach, they get to play for a guy who determines national team appearances.

fuck that's advantage you stupid ass ref

Getting to half 0-0 would be a major victory.

This game is extremely important beyond the B1G championship game. As of Nov 6th, Michigan is 28th in RPI and MSU is 60th. With a win over Wisconsin (82nd) and Northwestern (41st) in the B1G tournament, a loss today would probably keep Michigan's RPI ranking around 28th next week. With 26 teams getting at large bids (22 auto qualify), Michigan should be in regardless, while MSU has to win to have a chance.

A win and an autobid is still extremely important for Michigan, because a win would improve their draw significantly, possibly putting them in a seeded position (with a first round bye) and definitely getting HFA for the first game. 

Men can't win arguments, because even when we are right, we still end up losing overall.

Notice how the angle showing him short is much closer to a direct shot down the goal line. Clearly short.

Eventually someone will come up with a screenshot. It was obviously short. The ball may have been obscured, but unless fitz was carrying it outside his arm invisibly he wasn't in.

And the shot I'm refering to was as goal line as you get.

So here's the only thing image I can find atm:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSGwIq0sQXA

The video is frozen a bit late, so the ball is a bit further back than it appears. It's also important to remember the plane of the goaline is running diagonal slightly shifting to the left as you go up. That means the goal line directly behind toussaint isn't actually where toussaint is. You need to translate fitz in the same way the goal line is distorted.

This angle doesn't overturn the angle that clearly showed him short.

The side that showed he was in was not on the goal line. This created the illusion that he was in.

The side that showed him out was facing straight down the goal line and showed that he definitely not in. This was enough evidence imo to overturn.

The fact that one side showed him in doesn't overturn the obviously superior angle.

If someone could get some screenshots of each one that'd be great.

Saying Michigan is #19 in FEI is misleading. They're actually 13th. However, the data is so thin that they use projective data to produce less laughable rankings.

The S&P is not, repeat IS NOT, considering SoS yet. They won't until there's enough data available.

Also, as Football Outsiders website says quite clearly, it's way too early to be using these statistics they way you are. 

Bodog isn't leaving at the end of the year, they are simply rebranding.

I, for one, welcome our new mgoblog overlords.

I took some classes at Schoolcraft for summer school because it was cheaper... and this definitely isn't true. 

It was nice to take my second semester of physics there though.

FEI accounts for your criticisms... you clearly have no idea how it works.

Seems like a much easier way of doing this would be to simply look at FEI and S&P rankings. The grunt work here has already been done for you.

SDSU FEI Offensive Ranking is 12th, Defense 45th. Those are SoS adjusted.

For comparison, Mich was 2 and 108.

Jeez those defensive numbers are always tough to take.

This trend of bastardizing stats to discredit the star system is disheartening.

It's a good idea, but the MLS doesn't want a Stadium like the Silverdome. The MLS wants soccer specific stadiums with reasonable capacities. The silverdome is neither.

Ugh, not entirely surprising, but disappointing nevertheless.

Just as a warning

A bunch of people did this on another forum last year, and they were charged full price the next year. So, if you do this, keep an eye on it.

Stanford with a 3-3-5 look on 3rd down.... doesn't Harbaugh know that can't work in BIG TEN FOOTBAW?

/s

This should be obvious, but those people probably have other reasons for supporting RR that outweigh his mistakes and convince them that RR is best for the program.

If only there was a stat that adjusted for opponent strength and looked comprehensively at offensive output.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaoff

Michigan is #3.

Some stats for ya...

FEI rank, Defense, WVU.

2010 #1
2009 #33
2008 #28
2007 #8

"At the UCF game a friend of mine turned to me and said in all seriousness "he's better than Robbie Findley," and I thought to myself "this is literally true." "

Umm no. While I'm not a fan of Robbie Findley's inclusion into the world cup team, the pro and international game is at such a higher level than college the comparison is ridiculous. If Meram manages to play a 100 games at a pro level and score 30 goals he'd be the most successful soccer player to come out of Michigan other than Alexi Lalas.

It's important to note that soccer is very different from the NFL in that the collegiate game is not essentially a minor league system. Take a look at the USMNT's roster and you'll see that most players either spent a year or two in college or none at all.

Akron doesn't have 8 of the top 10 pro prospects in the nation, even if you take Ive's list as gold (and he's pretty good imo). Top tier prospects like Andy Najar and Spector play for academies either in the US or abroad until they're ready. Akron has 8 of the top 10 collegiate prospects, which is still pretty crazy if you ask me, but the difference is important.

College soccer is looked down on by the MLS and other leagues, and for good reason. The NCAA has more than a few rules that really hurts the quality of the game because they allow teams to de-emphasize skill in favor of running up and down the field. As US Soccer improves, less and less top tier kids are going to go the college route, and this will be great for the USMNT.

NOOOOOOO!

First Russia and Qatar, now this? I've had to handle way too many bad internet rumors today.

Saw this on umgoblog, TELL ME ITS NOT TRUE!

Hmmm which is worse?

I choose OP. At least RR haters have some sort of argument other than WAAAAH I have to skip past some free content. 

This is nice, but it's unnecessary. FEI controls for SoS.

You don't need to control for variability in scheduling. The FEI and S&P statistics already do that.

All Big Ten Awards tend to go to upperclassmen, which is why there's LOLs like Persa coming in over TP and Denard.

I'm sorry, but have you tasted the crust of Domino's pizza lately? How dare you question the man behind that?

I don't get it. You're purporting to be showing a lack of improvement, but then you show a very small decrease that you got only because you cherry picked your data, and then openly show a huge improvement in the second half?

WTF? That makes no sense whatsoever. Look at this 10 pt decrease, pay no attention to the 60pt increase right after. Jeez.

gooooooooooooooooooooool

Sigh, the finishing, it's not clinical.

ARRRGH PUT THE BREAKAWAY IN THE NET!

Michigan moving the ball real well up the left side so far.

7-5 is basically what I expected.

The team is significantly better from last year and the year before.

The defense has to get better given the youth.

We don't cheer for a douche like Pryor.

Bowling in Tempe.

48 Teams make the tournament. The top 16 teams get byes and home field advantage for the first game. After that round, teams travel to regional sites like the basketball tournament. It's single elimination the whole way.

We'll probably get a bye because our season long performance is pretty solid, we're 'hot', and we just beat 2 quality teams (Wisconsin isn't good). RPI is used as a factor in determining seeds, but it isn't the only thing that is used.

The Big Ten is a traditionally strong soccer conference, but that is based almost entirely on Indiana, which is one of the most successful soccer programs in the nation. They've won 7 national championships, second only to St Louis, and have had 10 players win the Hermann Trophy (think Heisman). 

This year, the Big Ten is the #1 conference according to RPI, but voter's haven't given the Big Ten any respect, and they have no teams in the top 25. LOL polls obviously.

If the draw goes like it has in prior years, it will be televised on ESPN News or ESPNU. I'll make a thread or something when I find out what is going on.

PSU taking shots at Saad now when Saad isn't even on the ball now.

Screamer by Meram after cutting in.

2-0

The McDonalds parking lot across from Wrigley seems like a good spot.

Maybe I should make the 10 minute walk, but even I don't care enough about this game.

The quarterfinal wasn't on TV. According to the MSoccer Twitter account, it was a 'standard Meram celebration'

So yeah, whatever that means. 

2 min

Top prospects in the MLS get a contract from adidas as well as the MLS, so they end up making >100k.

Wisconsin has successfully killed the game. There's very little creativity from Michigan in the final third at the moment.

You have to declare. Peri Marosevic did this a few years ago and went in the top 10. Peri had more accolades outside of Michigan soccer though, he was captain of a youth USMNT.

Yeah Title IX puts Men's Soccer in a tough spot because it limits teams to 9.9 scholarships per year.

HEELLLLLLLLLLLSSSSSS YEAAAAAAAAAH

Should be good to go.

I'm not embellishing at all. If anyone is changing the story at all it's you.

The fact he hit someone in the parking lot pokes a mighty big hole in the, 'He was fiiiine, just crossing the street' crap that a MSU fan posted. He was intoxicated enough that he hit something before he got on the road. He fucked up bad.

http://isportsweb.com/report.pdf

Well, yeah, the win over wisconsin is much more impressive than our win against Indiana

Because rewarding hard work, no matter who you are, is an important principle to have instilled in your football team. It's worth way more than Gardner's redshirt.

• http://mgoblog.com/themes/tapestry/images/breadcrumb-arrow.png); background-position: 0.7em 0.4em; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; ">
  http://mgoblog.com/diaries/decimated-defense
• http://mgoblog.com/themes/tapestry/images/breadcrumb-arrow.png); background-position: 0.7em 0.4em; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; ">
  http://mgoblog.com/diaries/decimated-defense-part-ii-statisticating
• http://mgoblog.com/themes/tapestry/images/breadcrumb-arrow.png); background-position: 0.7em 0.4em; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; ">
  http://mgoblog.com/diaries/decimated-defense-part-iii-resuscitating

That is all

Wow amazing.

Extra miler imo.

While Drob is obviously amazing, what impresses me most about the highlights is the offensive line. Almost every big run by robinson has a lineman or two 15 yards down the field destroying somebody.

Fangraphs.com scouting report says 89-94 mph fastball and a curveball. He's posted great K rates in A and AA last year, but that has fallen off some in AAA this year (His BB rate has improved though). Sample size is pretty small though in AAA.

He's one of the Tigers' top ten prospects, hopefully he does well and someone else gets optioned back down when Galaragga comes back.

The biggest difference between the two is that the iPhone is in Apple's safe little garden while Droid lets you go into the jungle. This leads to the iPhone being easier to use, but certain Droid phones will have features that the iPhone doesn't have.

Also, ATT sucks in Chicago, so that pushed me to Sprints Evo 4G.

If you look at the group standings, Algeria still has a chance, so they will be playing. However, it's very likely that Algeria will have to win by 2 in order to advance because Slovenia has a +1 GD, owns the GS tiebreaker and it doesn't look like England is going to score a lot. Hopefully, Algeria comes to the same conclusion and presses.

Unfortunately for Algeria, this couldn't be better for us, because we are most effective on the counter. Algeria plays a 3-4-2-1 that shifts to a 5-4-1 on defense. Maybe I'll do a diary latter with pics and everything, but the way to attack this formation is to attack the wings, which means Dempsey and Donovan will have a lot of space. This is not good for the Algerians.

A good example of how well we can do against this type of system in this situation is the Egyptian game from the 2009 Confederations Cup. Egypt plays the same strange 3-4-2-1 and wanted to get a win so they could advance over Italy. They pressed some, and we pumped a quick goal in the first half. They pressed a lot in the second half, and we destroyed them after they wore out.

Basically, the fact Algeria needs a convincing win is going to make it easier to expose them in the back. Frankly, we should be able to absorb their weak attack.

Of course there's such thing as a 3-2 draw... didn't you see our 1-1 win?

I think you missed a lot in this match Brain. 

The substitutions were a big deal because of the change in personel-types and the changes in formation. We opened up the 2nd half in this:

'We also need to clamp down outside the 18 quicker, they were popping some shots from 20-30 with some of our players just standing idle.  Pressure is essential at that distance.'

Against a team that doesn't have a Wayne Rooney this is very true. However, I'm perfectly happy to let someone try their luck at 30 yards out on Howard. That shot doesn't score often, even when Lampard or Gerrard hitting it.

It's a pretty simple pick your poison situation, and our best expectation is give up long range shots instead of breakaways.

The entire budget for a sport like soccer (budget ~1 million a few years ago) is going to be less than the amount Nebraska/Texas, and that normally includes 2-3 big trips per year. Adding one more can't be that more than the extra money coming in.

This would be a big plus for soccer because the conference would have more than the 7 teams it has now... the expansion wouldn't go into Nebraska or Texas either because they don't have teams.

Obviously this will be a little different for each sport, but I have a feeling someone in the B10 has thought about this already and determined the benefits will outweigh the costs.

While Jozy should be OK, this is really wrong and you are extrapolating way, way too much from a friendly.

Bornstein has had a few games where he's done fine, and he's perfect for some CONCACAF qualification matches. Depth is important during the absurdly long CONCACAF WCQ process, but if he's seeing significant minutes in the WC Finals something has gone terribly wrong.

"I assume both Dempsey and Altidore will make way for some combo of Gomez/Buddle/Findley,"

Holden is probably first in line to get subbed out, because Dempsey is one of the fittest guys on the team (you don't score the big late goals like he does if you aren't) and Holden can't be 100% match fit coming off of that broken foot/ankle.

It seems like a waste to keep DR on the bench so much of the game. Could he end up as a RB/WR?

Trading him at a time when we'd get the absolute least value for him seems like a bad idea.

Coaches follow this chart? It says down 8 with 3 minutes left, go for it if you get in 38% of the time, which sounds about right.

Well I guess some people think about it, but coaches don't have the balls to use it.

I won't dispute that there are other variables at play.

I will submit that for the most part, coaches do not even consider doing this, and that other unknown variables will cancel out over time.

I looked for evidence who won OT more, the tier or the team tied, but found nothing about it. Do you have some you can put up?

I am sure however that the momentum loss after missing a 2pt conversion explanation is not based evidence. I don't think a team will be much less motivated to score a TD down 8 compared to 7, and I'm sure you won't be able to prove it.

He's going on short rest, presumably, he'd tire much earlier than that. He'd also not have his best stuff. We'd also risk serious injury.

As for polanco not being a 10m+ player, well, his value from 2007-09 is $21.7m, $13.9m, and 15.1m. I also love how you go from telling me to stay away from stats and how they can be manipulated into anything then cite a stat that has the smallest overall sample. Do you realize how hypocritical that is?

You've completely missed the point of the whole debate btw, no one is disputing that Polanco has been a productive player. However, the Tigers have really dug themselves into a hole with some of the ridiculous contracts we've given out to guys like Willis, Bonderman, Robertson and Ordonez. That is about 50m right there for 3 guys who have no future with the team and 1 guy who is a shell of his former self. Sizemore will cost the team about 400k and has shown that he has the potential to be a solid MLB 2B. Polanco, if we give him half of his worth, would get ~8m. The Tigers may lose some value from Polanco leaving, but they will also shed his salary, which is important for a team that has too big of a payroll in a terrible economy.

I like the premise of your analysis, but there just isn't enough data for this to mean much. I wouldn't draw the lines like you did either. Are they trend lines? If so, you should draw one line, probably a curve approaching a asymptote of 6 (or 7 for a td, not sure what you are using).

A few games later into the season and this type of analysis will be much more interesting.

"five innings out of Porcello tomorrow then turn it over to the bullpen. I agree Porcello ahs thrown a lot of innings this year and has exceeded expectations, but the season is on the line. I think his risk for injury is minimal but the info above about velocity reduction is interesting.

Pitchers are too pampered today with 5 days rest/ 5 man rotations, pitch counts and pitching 5-6 nnings then being replaced.

Can we sign Mickey Lolich to a one day contract and pitch him tomorrow? Look up his stats with the Tigers- especially 1970-1973. Simply amazing and he is never mentioned for the HOF."

There's very clear statistical evidence about the risks from increasing a pitchers workload from year to year. Porcello has already pitched way more than what we wanted him to this year.

As for your pitch count diatribe, did you follow any of the links I provided? Did you see how Porcello's velocity just drops off after 60 pitches? That is an obvious sign of fatigue, and just because some guy in a different era managed to throw a ton of pitches doesn't mean we should take risks with an arm that we have for a few more years before arbitration.

Oh and you forgot 'Get off my lawn'

"If I was DD I would give Polanco and two year contract. Gerald Laird being our second best player? I will have to be water boarded to believe that."

Believe it or not, most people value stats more than your opinion. Financial constraints from prior mistakes will simply force DD to call up some prospects like Sizemore, Ramirez and a few pitchers because we won't be able to afford free agents like Polanco. Polanco is going to be worth 10+ million a year next year. With sizemore, we'll be able to get similar value for the league minimum because Sizemore hasn't hit arbitration yet. It's a pretty easy business decision.

You get to the right conclusion but with the wrong argument. This is a classic example of correlation shown with no causation. Since I doubt that anyone will be able to come up with some solid rationale for some sort of causation, all this data presents is an example of variance.

"Santiago at 2B. For some reason, Polanco, their best clutch hitter, wasn't playing. Should have played Placido at 2B and put Santiago at SS. Everett hits worse than your Grandma."

Well first off, Polanco is not our best clutch hitter. Anyways, did you see the game on the 30th? Polanco made a bad error and was probably held out because his back is bothering him again. Leyland wouldn't play Santiago for Polanco at this point unless he absolutely had to.

Everett and Santiago have about the same value overall as a player because Everett makes up the fact he can't hit well with his bat.

The person who needs to be taken off of the field right now is Brandon Inge. His error tonight was his third bad error in the last 6 games. He can't hit. While I appreciate the valiant effort he is putting in hurt, he's hurting us more by being on the field. Move Santiago to 3b (he doesn't have much range anyways) and keep Everett and Polanco up the middle.

"if he hadn't blown that ONE save..."

Rodney blew a save against Cleveland. Assuming we won that game, the Tigers magic number would be 1 instead of 2, so they would not have clinched yet.

Is the fact Illinois has only 7 trips in the RZ. I know that's a little out of scope, but wow, that's a bad number