Member for

12 years 4 months
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Recent Comments

Date Title Body
Tactics: Change the Debate

If you fancy home-ish games in the B1G footprint,* you should like this "it's more fair to players from the South/West" "reason" for conceding home playoff games.  It's not the real reason the B1G is conceding, and that's why you should like it: The B1G is trying to change the terms of the debate and, if successful, could preserve a playoff game in the footprint, say at Ford Field or Lucas Oil Stadium.

The midwest in late December is a terrible vacation destination, and that's the B1G's Achilles heel. Alums, students and other fans of Southern and Western schools are less likely to travel to Detroit or Indy, in the dead of winter, than B1G fans are to travel to New Orleans or Pasadena.*  So if the debate over playoff sites focuses on ticket sales (i.e., whether "away" teams will sell their ticket blocks), the B1G probably loses.  That is, the B1G can probably sell their ticket blocks if the "away" game is in a warm climate, but the South/West Coast/Texas schools might not be able to sell its block if the game is in Detroit or Indy.  The B1G couldn't even sell out its first championship game!  But if the B1G focuses the debate on fairness-to-players, indoor stadiums in the footprint are still fair game.

*Of course, Brandon doesn't seem to fancy home-ish games in the footprint, but rather seems to fancy the current system that favors (1) fans who already live out of state and would prefer to travel to Florida sun over Ann Arbor grey, (2) local fans who prefer to spend winter break away from winter in Phoenix and (3) the players, band and athletic department staff who want a free trip to SoCal.

Strip out 2+ losses

This is interesting (as always), but M's percentage looks heavily influenced by scenarios it loses 2+ more games.  More interesting: What are M's chances if they win out or drop only one more?  (Back of the envelope with your numbers says Sparty wins out 62% of simulations, so it's gotta be south of 38%.)