The D-League as petri dish for weird basketball concepts.
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|2 days 12 hours ago||Actually, doesn't that just||
Actually, doesn't that just prove that the feelings evoked by an image can be more culturally important than the facts behind the image itself? Hence justifying the use of "STAEE"? That is, the picture perfectly captures the sense of larger situation, even if the literal event depicted was not particularly representative.
The flag-raising photo from Iwo Jima and the Eddie Adams picture of Nguyen Ngoc Loan executing a Viet Cong prisoner are other good examples.
|5 days 2 hours ago||Maybe Tom Crean left the||
Maybe Tom Crean left the trophy sticky last year?
|6 days 12 hours ago||I think this is definitely a||
I think this is definitely a big piece of the problem - season tickets are the only way to buy student tickets, and a full season of student tickets are still cheaper than attending more than 2 games at general public prices (plus single game seats are effectively impossible to obtain for OSU, MSU at student friendly prices). We probably have a significant part of the student fanbase that would love to go to a game, but not every game. There's also probably a meaningful contingent (a few % per game) that want to go to every game but miss out on one or two a season due to other committments. Both of these groups usually still buy season tickets.
This wouldn't be so bad, except that the AD has also made selling student tickets difficult by first going to the "validation" model (how much are they really making off of those?) and then by going GA, which makes student tickets even more of a hassle compared to other seats on the resale market.
I suspect the issue of unused tickets for general public seats is lower because a) the cost of season tickets is much higher, b) single game seats are generally available, although the cost may be high or you may need to buy a cupcake game "package", and c) it's pretty easy to toss your tickets up on StubHub if you're not going to make it.
One option that might help would be a "student ticket buyback" program. If you buy student tix, you're guaranteed a ticket to every game. However, if you determine you can't make it (say up to a week before game time) you can "release" your ticket for an 80% face value refund (your ticket would become un-scannable and a new one would be "printed"). Students who wish to go to a single game can go on a waiting list and purchase "released" tickets for 110% of student face value. If the number of tickets released exceeds the number of students on the wait list, the tickets would be offerred to the general public for the going rate (you could rope off the top of the student section and offer assigned seating at the top of the bowl, with the number of rows determined by the number of available tix). The difference in cost could pay for the management of the program.
|1 week 3 days ago||FWIW I didn't downvote you.||
FWIW I didn't downvote you. My point is I don't really get why you felt the need to write the equivalent of a couple pages of text to basically say "statistics don't tell everything", because I don't think anyone actually disagrees with you on that point.
The OP just wanted to have a little fun playing with the Kenpom numbers, not promoting "slavish devotion" to the predictions, and honestly you seemed to be taking it too seriously. We're not talking about cancer drug trials here. I mean, your points regarding some areas you think Kenpom doesn't handle well are interesting, but I don't think you needed to wrap it in an overall critique of the purpose of statistics in sports, which turned into a pretty major threadjack.
This is supposed to be fun, and while this OP seemed to take your points well, in general I think we ought to encourage more unpaid writers to share their number crunching with the blog, and your critique could be discouraging.
Anyway not trying to be mean or anything, just noting your original couple posts came off as a bit persnickety given the topic.
|1 week 3 days ago||It doesn't mean that the||
It doesn't mean that the states without a law on the books are OK with it happening. But it does strongly imply that the state WITH the law on the books is NOT OK with it happening. Something can be common without being socially acceptable or "normal". The implied joke is not that cousin relationships are merely common in WV, but that they are the "norm".
Anyway, if we're going with tasteless stereotypes to make a joke, why not go with Alabama (over WV) since it is both stereotypcially backward AND has legalized first cousin marriages AND has a certifiable ass as its coach?
|1 week 3 days ago||At the point where you're||
At the point where you're considering specific limitations in the Kenpom algorithm to justify your belief in a higher level of uncertainty (and backing it up with your own professional statistics credentials), aren't you being just as mathy as the OP? Certainly you're being at least as slavish about the precise application of the statistical method (on an entertainment site) as the OP is to Kenpom's numbers.
In any case, what you really asking for (and are not yourself providing) are not really different numbers, just bigger error bars - the fact that Kenpom can't account for everything means that a margin around the nominal probability would be warranted.
Also, you yourself are abusing statistics a bit by using a single sample to argue for the invalidity of the prediction. After all, Michigan only had a 74% win probability, according to Kenpom, at the start of the Purdue game. A Michigan loss would not have made him 100% wrong, any more than the eventual Michigan win means that he should have predicted a 100% win probability.
|1 week 3 days ago||The "joke", such as it is, is||
The "joke", such as it is, is the implication that West Virginia is so backwards that first-cousin relationships are the norm, or at least unusually widely socially accepted. The fact that first-cousin marriages are not legal would imply that there is strong social opposition to the relationships, and the fact that they are legal in many other states suggests that West Virginia is not particularly permissive compared to the rest of the country.
Ergo, if you're attempting to make a joke about "all in the family" sexual relations (which is a bit gross considering the context here), West Virginia is a poor choice for a state stereotype.
|1 week 4 days ago||1) Rich Rod's teams had the||
1) Rich Rod's teams had the most immediate needs on defense (particularly the secondary) and at the offensive skill positions, and I think his classes reflected that. Unfortunately that's biting us now because it left a hole at O-Line. So not "forced" necessarily, but definitely "had more pressing concerns than the 2013 O-Line".
2) By the end of his tenure, the atmosphere around the program was clearly affecting recruiting, and since you can't force people to sign on, sometimes you miss out on your preferred guys.
2 was largely driven by the team's on field failure (hence my "depending on how generous" caveat) - but even then the recruiting results say more about RR's record than they do about his ability to identify talent and position needs.
3) For Hoke, you could say he was "forced" into making some late pickups of guys he might not have recruited otherwise due to his hiring date. He was "forced" into not pursuing certain DL recruits as heavily because of Hand and McDowell's late decisions (unless you want to fault him for assuming, or at least preferring, he'd get one or both of them).
Main point was that recruiting is not completely in the control of coaches.
|1 week 5 days ago||Seems more like a lazy way to||
Seems more like a lazy way to make Harry the hero. Which, incidentally, is why I could never really get into the books. Too many rules made up on the spot, then later rejected, for the benefit of the protagonist. It's hard to have a relatable "hero's journey" when the hero gets every advantage at the start. Also, all the adults were unbelievably stupid and Dumbledore should have just used the damn time turner to fix everything.
|1 week 5 days ago||So, we've beaten the Gardner||
So, we've beaten the Gardner thing to death and beyond.
But the bigger question, "has Hoke done a good job managing his personnel" is still debatable, I think, since that's where "how much should I panic about Jake Ryan moving" comes from. I can think of 3 head scratchers:
1) The O-line shuffle last year. In the end it seemed counterproductive, and if camp and practice were unable to reveal that Miller was not going to be a plausible OL option at any position (and so on and so forth throughout the season with multiple guys playing flavor of the week) then I think the effectiveness of practice has to be questioned.
2) The D-line last year - why did Washington disappear, and why was Jibreel Black deployed at nose tackle against power run teams like OSU despite his inability to keep the LBs clean?
3) I guess this is less of a personnel question and more on Borges, but why did we continue to field TE sets (rather than 3+ receivers) long after it became apparent that none of them could play the blocking TE role effectively?
Now the coaches obviously know more, but they also aren't obviously infallible. I don't think we should panic about Jake moving, but it's not an obvious slam dunk either.
|1 week 5 days ago||RR made (or depending on how||
RR made (or depending on how generous you feel, was forced into) some poor recruiting choices that resulted in bad depth. Hoke has been (so far) much better in this regard (though the lack of star DL this year may eventually haunt us).
But I don't think the complaint is leveled at recruiting - it's what's been done with the guys once they get here. Not just with development (although that's a legit concern, especially on the lines) but on where, how, and when players are deployed. And Hoke is not unquestionably perfect in that regard.
|1 week 5 days ago||The fact that Gardner was our||
The fact that Gardner was our leading receiver at the start of 2012 does not necessarily make his move to WR a good one. The relevant question is whether he was better enough than the next best option to offset the loss of our clear #2 QB, and production isn't the best metric there. Who's to say that Roundtree, Funchess, or Gallon could not have put up similar numbers in the #1 wideout role? We won't know because they weren't running those routes. On the other hand, hindsight is 20/20, and the Gardner / Bellomy distinction was a little less clear at the start of 2012 than it is now.
I'm surprised by your second paragraph. It's one thing to give a guy a tryout at a position. It's another to play musical chairs on a critical unit (known for requiring unit cohesion) for an entire season, especially when the musical chairs do not result in a markedly better unit at the end of the season. Not batting 1.000 is one thing, but the OLine last year flat struck out.
|1 week 5 days ago||The defensive coaching||
The defensive coaching shuffle doesn't bother me too much - these guys have been together 3 years and I'm fairly confident the coaches know what they can expect out of each coach. The move seems to recognize that some players weren't developing well and need more focused attention. The multi-headed interior line coaching clearly wasn't working all that well.
|1 week 5 days ago||So by that analysis, is||
So by that analysis, is RichRod an Ellerbe or a Beilein? /ducks
|2 weeks 2 days ago||I should also add that there||
I should also add that there are a lot of other people holding debt in the city, and they aren't all mustache twirling plutocrats. The more you give to pensioners, the less you give to creditors - and the less likely they'll be to ever invest in Detroit again.
|2 weeks 2 days ago||I think the OP is making an||
I think the OP is making an inherent value judgement, not by calling former employees valuable, but by stating that them keeping 90% of their pensions is definitely a good thing. There are a lot more interests holding debt in the city, not to mention the current residents and employees, who will be affected, possibly negatively, by how much of the pension debt is paid.
|2 weeks 2 days ago||More money for pensions for||
More money for pensions for retirees means less money for the people and infrastructure taking care of Detroit today.
|2 weeks 2 days ago||I think the derivative of||
I think the derivative of living conditions matters a lot in happiness. Generally, things are getting better in the northern plains states, and getting worse in the "Rust Belt".
Not sure how that explains the really low states in the south though, where manufacturers are starting to move.
|2 weeks 2 days ago||Of course, the irony is that||
Of course, the irony is that the majority of players on both teams live and work in the USA...
|2 weeks 4 days ago||Ted Ligety and Bode Miller||
Ted Ligety and Bode Miller use Austrian skis! The curlers use Canadian brooms! Meryl Davis and Charlie White use British skate blades! Rabble! RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE!
|2 weeks 4 days ago||Throwing the last rock in an||
Throwing the last rock in an end, known as "having the hammer" or "having last rock" is a major advantage, for obvious reasons. It's usually very difficult to score without the hammer (referred to as a "steal"), and it's generally accepted that scoring 1 point with the hammer is "easy" in a well played end. Basically, think of 1 point with the hammer as "par" - the team with the hammer will attempt to score 2 or more, and the team without will try to make them score one or less.
|2 weeks 5 days ago||Did Vaultier actually have||
Did Vaultier actually have surgery? With rehab and a brace, competing without an ACL in 2 months seems conceivable. After surgery that would be nuts though.
|2 weeks 5 days ago||Sure, but most pro golfers,||
Sure, but most pro golfers, bowlers, and curlers are in a lot better shape than their stereotypes suggest too. And judging their sports by those stereotypes is no more fair than assuming all baseball players look like the Babe.
|2 weeks 5 days ago||Actually, football has||
Actually, football has multiple refs, and often they see different things. Hence the ref huddles that occur multiple times per game. Certainly we see cases where the former ref commentator or the replay guy sees the same thing and calls it something else. That's not a straw man, that's a legitimate part of the argument that you want to skip over based on the number of officials involved.
|2 weeks 5 days ago||I should note that the 5 or||
I should note that the 5 or more medals in speed skating are especially impressive given there are only 5 events for each gender.
|2 weeks 5 days ago||Fair enough, it just means||
Fair enough, it just means that coverage for that sport tends to dominate.
|2 weeks 5 days ago||I doubt reputation plays zero||
I doubt reputation plays zero role, but the impression I get is that Shaun White attempts much more difficult tricks than most other competitors, and that a wobbly completion of a harder trick is scored more than a perfect completion of an easier trick.
|2 weeks 5 days ago||Ice dodgeball? Make the ball||
Ice dodgeball? Make the ball small and hard and give the players lacrosse sticks, and you've got yourself a sport!
|2 weeks 5 days ago||So you're saying that every||
So you're saying that every single umpire calls exactly the same strike zone in every game? Every football ref allows exactly the same amount of grabbing before he calls pass interference, every play, every game?
|2 weeks 5 days ago||I generally feel the same||
I generally feel the same way, but then I watched a whole session of ski jumping and realized they all looked exactly the same with some very minor differences that I don't understand, and then understood why it's easier to keep people glued to figure skating. The personality helps - the winter sliding sports are pretty dehumanizing with everybody zipped up tight in speed suits and trying to follow the exact same line.