Basically we are looking at 9 players that started as second year players out off 100 starters over 20 years. To try and get an idea about whether our second year players will be solid starters in 2013 you should really look at: a) the rankings of the 9 players that did it before (not every recruit because as has been pointed out most recruits are not in a position to start as a second year player because they should be blocked by an upper classman); b) the circumstances that lead those 9 players to start (did they beat out an upperclassman that was highly ranked, were there no better options etc...); c) whether their success varied based on position (maybe it's easier to be young and play guard); and d) whether the experience of the rest of the line had an impact (might be easier to be a successful second year left guard if your LT is an All-American). I think this kind of comparison would better indicate the odds of the individual linemen for 2013 being solid starters.
Why does everyone find this so depressing? Doesn't that chart say that if you start as a second year player (your redshirt freshman year) that you are favored 2-1 to be a solid starter rather than a liability? And as a third year player that increases to 2.5-1? We already know that our LT and RT/RG are ALL-BIG10+, so that leaves us to fill three spots on the line wtih two third year players and four second year players. Those odds are actually better than I would have thought.
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Basically we are looking at 9 players that started as second year players out off 100 starters over 20 years. To try and get an idea about whether our second year players will be solid starters in 2013 you should really look at: a) the rankings of the 9 players that did it before (not every recruit because as has been pointed out most recruits are not in a position to start as a second year player because they should be blocked by an upper classman); b) the circumstances that lead those 9 players to start (did they beat out an upperclassman that was highly ranked, were there no better options etc...); c) whether their success varied based on position (maybe it's easier to be young and play guard); and d) whether the experience of the rest of the line had an impact (might be easier to be a successful second year left guard if your LT is an All-American). I think this kind of comparison would better indicate the odds of the individual linemen for 2013 being solid starters.
Why does everyone find this so depressing? Doesn't that chart say that if you start as a second year player (your redshirt freshman year) that you are favored 2-1 to be a solid starter rather than a liability? And as a third year player that increases to 2.5-1? We already know that our LT and RT/RG are ALL-BIG10+, so that leaves us to fill three spots on the line wtih two third year players and four second year players. Those odds are actually better than I would have thought.