was the embodiment of "I Can't Believe It's Not Tressel!" Darrell Hazell had the blandest playbook imaginable, hoping to out-execute the other team while not having the talent to match.
Is about as thin as any unit in the Big Ten. If your offensive line keeps Speight upright and he CAN'T make the throws against this unit, it's time to seriously consider replacing him as your quarterback.
the fact that the only real way for Purdue to beat Michigan is to out-scheme them. Talent-wise, there is a significant gap between Purdue's players and Michigan's. If any coach in the Big Ten can cover that gap with exotic plays and misdirections, it's Jeff Freakin' Brohm. I understand the folk legend of Don Brown around these parts, but football only requires one broken coverage on a series to result in a touchdown.
Let me share some probability theory. When two teams match, higher variance ALWAYS favors the worse team. If you score 30 a game every time, and your opponent scores 25 every time, you win every time. However, if you score 20 half the time and 40 half the time, and your opponent scores 15 half the time and 35 half the time, your opponent wins 25% of those games. Brohm's trick plays serve to raise the variability of potential outcomes - I'd wager a large sum that Brohm shows many, many boutique plays in the hopes that Michigan defenders can't immediately come up with an answer.
I wouldn't be surprised if Purdue completes a few trick plays for huge yardage, and I would be surprised if Purdue DOESN'T have one or two trick plays that fall apart and end up with a boneheaded Blough throw into double coverage or a 12-yard sack. That's the path to victory, however narrow the path may be.
I think Purdue is improved, but let's face it. We were lucky to stay competitive with Louisville, and Michigan is not Louisville. Purdue is respectable, but short of extreme fumble luck, this game is right about where the line is. I have something like 31-21 Michigan.
Blough makes 2-4 plays a game that make you go "why on earth would you ever throw that ball." He magically didn't have any of those against Missouri, but I don't think that's likely to repeat itself on Saturday.
That said, Blough is a lot more talented than Hayden Moore or <AIR FORCE QB>. I'm also of the opinion that Malik Zaire is horribad, and would rather have Blough any day of the week. What I'm trying to say is, it's not a stretch at all to say that Purdue will be the best offense Michigan has faced this year.
And 7 to immediately start the second, after which Purdue put in 2nd and 3rd stringers. I can promise you that if Brohm wanted to put 50 on Mizzou, it would have been a strong possibility. There was a lot of Jared Sparks (3rd stringer, wildcat-esque QB) in the 4th quarter of that game, alongside a healthy diet of Dario Fuller up the middle.
This isn't to say that Purdue will score at will against Michigan - they haven't faced a defense in the same ZIP code as Michigan yet. They just let off the gas more-or-less after a single half of football against Missouri.
but I like Boiledsports.com a lot. They have a stable or pretty reasonable, affable guys who love Purdue. They aren't nearly as in-depth as mgoblog but I like them all the same. This site is the best of sports coverage there is, which is why I lurk and read from time to time even though I couldn't really care less about Michigan sports. Whenever Purdue plays Michigan, I look forward to the analysis here.
Almost could not be more different on offense, which will be interesting for you guys. Brohm cries a little every time he calls a run play, and while he's very gadget-friendly, he doesn't run the option essentially ever. Purdue's path to victory is to not turn the ball over, because they have the TEs to churn 1sts if they need to and a tremendously skilled QB in Blough (though prone to making 2-4 WTF decisions a game).
Against Missouri, Blough/Sindelar (we play both) had 6 (!) receivers with 2 or more catches - from a min of 22 yards to a max of 36 (also one 54 yard pass to Cole Herdman, our stud TE). Herdman is a tough guy to cover, though his big gainer against Ohio was due to busted coverage.
You understate the badness of our secondary (I'm a purdue fan), in my opinion. They have no chance against athletic WR or TE. Do you guys have any of those?
That said, our front 7 completely eviscerated Missouri. Purdue's path to success is to make a quarterback hurry his throws and get off the field. To that end, this defense has to get penetration on your offensive line because the secondary just isn't going to make plays.
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was the embodiment of "I Can't Believe It's Not Tressel!" Darrell Hazell had the blandest playbook imaginable, hoping to out-execute the other team while not having the talent to match.
Is about as thin as any unit in the Big Ten. If your offensive line keeps Speight upright and he CAN'T make the throws against this unit, it's time to seriously consider replacing him as your quarterback.
the fact that the only real way for Purdue to beat Michigan is to out-scheme them. Talent-wise, there is a significant gap between Purdue's players and Michigan's. If any coach in the Big Ten can cover that gap with exotic plays and misdirections, it's Jeff Freakin' Brohm. I understand the folk legend of Don Brown around these parts, but football only requires one broken coverage on a series to result in a touchdown.
Let me share some probability theory. When two teams match, higher variance ALWAYS favors the worse team. If you score 30 a game every time, and your opponent scores 25 every time, you win every time. However, if you score 20 half the time and 40 half the time, and your opponent scores 15 half the time and 35 half the time, your opponent wins 25% of those games. Brohm's trick plays serve to raise the variability of potential outcomes - I'd wager a large sum that Brohm shows many, many boutique plays in the hopes that Michigan defenders can't immediately come up with an answer.
I wouldn't be surprised if Purdue completes a few trick plays for huge yardage, and I would be surprised if Purdue DOESN'T have one or two trick plays that fall apart and end up with a boneheaded Blough throw into double coverage or a 12-yard sack. That's the path to victory, however narrow the path may be.
Do not speak for me!
I think Purdue is improved, but let's face it. We were lucky to stay competitive with Louisville, and Michigan is not Louisville. Purdue is respectable, but short of extreme fumble luck, this game is right about where the line is. I have something like 31-21 Michigan.
Blough makes 2-4 plays a game that make you go "why on earth would you ever throw that ball." He magically didn't have any of those against Missouri, but I don't think that's likely to repeat itself on Saturday.
That said, Blough is a lot more talented than Hayden Moore or <AIR FORCE QB>. I'm also of the opinion that Malik Zaire is horribad, and would rather have Blough any day of the week. What I'm trying to say is, it's not a stretch at all to say that Purdue will be the best offense Michigan has faced this year.
And 7 to immediately start the second, after which Purdue put in 2nd and 3rd stringers. I can promise you that if Brohm wanted to put 50 on Mizzou, it would have been a strong possibility. There was a lot of Jared Sparks (3rd stringer, wildcat-esque QB) in the 4th quarter of that game, alongside a healthy diet of Dario Fuller up the middle.
This isn't to say that Purdue will score at will against Michigan - they haven't faced a defense in the same ZIP code as Michigan yet. They just let off the gas more-or-less after a single half of football against Missouri.
but I like Boiledsports.com a lot. They have a stable or pretty reasonable, affable guys who love Purdue. They aren't nearly as in-depth as mgoblog but I like them all the same. This site is the best of sports coverage there is, which is why I lurk and read from time to time even though I couldn't really care less about Michigan sports. Whenever Purdue plays Michigan, I look forward to the analysis here.
Almost could not be more different on offense, which will be interesting for you guys. Brohm cries a little every time he calls a run play, and while he's very gadget-friendly, he doesn't run the option essentially ever. Purdue's path to victory is to not turn the ball over, because they have the TEs to churn 1sts if they need to and a tremendously skilled QB in Blough (though prone to making 2-4 WTF decisions a game).
Against Missouri, Blough/Sindelar (we play both) had 6 (!) receivers with 2 or more catches - from a min of 22 yards to a max of 36 (also one 54 yard pass to Cole Herdman, our stud TE). Herdman is a tough guy to cover, though his big gainer against Ohio was due to busted coverage.
You understate the badness of our secondary (I'm a purdue fan), in my opinion. They have no chance against athletic WR or TE. Do you guys have any of those?
That said, our front 7 completely eviscerated Missouri. Purdue's path to success is to make a quarterback hurry his throws and get off the field. To that end, this defense has to get penetration on your offensive line because the secondary just isn't going to make plays.