Recent Comments

It seems like you'd see a bump (over the team average at least) this whenever your worst rebounder shoots, assuming that getting your own rebounds (a la McGary) is rare.

31 - 17 Michigan

25-15 Michigan

Mich 9

Minn 3

180 yards rushing.

State moves the ball but can't get in the endzone.  Turnovers keep Michigan's point total down.

I actually used pagerank a few years ago to pick my bracket.  It did well, especially in the first round or so, but only ended up getting 3rd in my bracket pool.

Its been fun to watch Ace's writing style improve so much over the last few months.  The only problem now is that he sounds just like Brian. Given another year and he's going to be among the best sportswriters in the sports blogosphere.

Exactly.  Reductio ad absurdum: QBs have higher PAN than offensive guards, so we should stop recruiting so many linemen.  Clearly this is wrong.

There is a tradeoff between defending the run and defending the pass.  Teams that sell out to stop one open themselves up to the other.  I think its reasonable to say that one reason Russel Wilson's numbers look so good is precisely because Wisconsin's running game was so dominant.

I must be a super football nerd, but when I read the bit about the inside zone minutia my first thought was: "I hope Brian turns that into a post".

This is really great - stick with it!

Smart football has a pretty good list (though not all are strictly football related):

http://smartfootball.com/books/books-that-have-influenced-me-most

http://smartfootball.com/tag/books

"The Inner Game of Tennis" is a classic with lessons that extend beyond tennis.

I've can't shake the bad feeling I have about this game. Homefield is huge (see Ohio vs Wiscy) and they're going to be out for blood after an embarassing loss. . .

With the previous coaches we saw a tendency to play an upperclassman over a less experienced play with more innate talent. I remember a quote about the coaches preferring to know where a player's deficiencies were, and scheming around those as opposed to being surprised (Example: Moundros starting over Demens). How will the new coaches weigh experience vs raw talent - i.e. what do the young guys need to do to get on the field?

Yeah, you're absolutly right, I shouldn't have worded that statement to imply causation.  

Really good suggestion.  I added a new chart above.  It does clean up the data somewhat, but the correlation is still not very good.

Here's what the data for Michigan looks like with my score in parentheses:

ryan van bergen     jr.     rs  (3 + 1)
renaldo sagesse     sr.    (4)
greg banks     sr.     rs    (4 + 1)
steve watson     jr.     rs    (3 + 1)
mike martin     jr.     (3)
william campbell     so.    (2)
craig roh     so.    (2)
j.b. fitzgerald     jr.    (3)
thomas gordon     fr.     rs  (2)
kevin leach     jr.     rs    (4)
obi ezeh     sr.     rs    (5)
mark moundros     sr.     rs    (5)
jonas mouton     sr.     rs    (5)
mike jones     so.    (2)
james rogers     sr.    (4)
j.t. floyd     so.     rs    (3)
jordan kovacs     so.     rs    (3)
cameron gordon     fr.     rs    (2)
vladimir emillen     so.    (2)

4+4+5+4+3+2+2+3+2+4+5+5+5+2+4+3+3+2+2 = 64 / 19 ~ 3.37

This is a pretty accurate two-deep at the beginning of the year.  In a perfect world, this data would include transfers and injuries already, but since it doesn't we can try to correct for it.  Watson should probably be replaced with Patterson (sr rs +1), Emillen with Vinopal (fr -1), and Jones with Demens (so rs +1).  We'd get 65 / 19 ~ 3.42.

Ok, so lets go crazy and remove Floyd (which I'm iffy about since he did play much of the year) (-3) and add in Avery, Christen, and Talbott (all fr +1).  This gets us below a junior's experience: 65 / 22 ~ 2.95.

I've updated the graph with a second vertical line showing Michigan with injuries / transfers / freshman.

If you want to draw conclusions from this you need to provide a basis for comparison. For example, what did this chart look like for three representative years under Carr?

Michigan is going to a bowl and Ohio State is good.  The team is young.  7-5 is an improvement.

All three played hard.  That stop by Vinopal at the line of scrimmage against Leshoure was amazing.  Leshoure has him by 40 pounds, and he doesn't get an inch after the hit.

With Odoms out do we know who gets the start? I'd love to see Ricardo Miller get some big plays.

On the Shaw 12 yard run in the first series, Shaw spins into Schilling who shoves him upfield for at least 4 yards.  Awsome.

I've been re-watching this play a bunch because it is really bugging me. Lets say Gordon makes the tackle* - this coverage is still totally broken because Gordon is responsible for two wide-open receivers. At the snap it was clear that there are only two defenders for 3 receivers. No matter what this is going to be a big play. Further, its really hard to see how to take this away. Maybe some kind of Tampa-2 with Kovacs playing the strong safety role? Or maybe the plan is just to load up underneath and hope that most qbs can't make this throw?

Man and do you see how wide open Micheal Floyd is coming across the middle? He could have the first down too.

* I think the camera angle is making it look like he's closer to the outside receiver than he really is. He jumps when the ball is thrown, and still isn't particularly close when it arrives. Just to make the tackle I think he needs to drop a few more steps.

Awsome, one of the best diaries I've ever read - keep it up!

Watching last year, it seemed to me that the linebackers were hesitant at least in part because there was essentially no-one behind them. If we have just a little bit of consistency in play at the free safety spot I think the linebackers will be free to think less and commit to a gap.