I'VE HAD JUST ABOUT ENOUGH OF YOU SONNY
- Member for
- 2 years 46 weeks
|13 weeks 1 day ago||Slow mo is awesome||
Thanks for figuring out
|13 weeks 3 days ago||good stuff||
I even like the light dose of personal anecdotes. Thanks!
|17 weeks 1 day ago||thanks dude||
|22 weeks 21 hours ago||I like this feature||
I really like this new feature. Keep it coming!
|25 weeks 4 days ago||great read||
|26 weeks 5 days ago||Sexist!||
Ha! I was sooo ready to call you a dumb sexist f**k. But yeah, this is 100% right...
|28 weeks 4 days ago||wow!||
|1 year 5 weeks ago||delete||
|1 year 5 weeks ago||R?||
Was that an R reference on Mgoblog? It sure looks like it, but it all seems so improbable...
|1 year 7 weeks ago||thanks for the pointer. that||
thanks for the pointer. that was awesome
|1 year 8 weeks ago||This is awesome||
|1 year 12 weeks ago||+1||
|1 year 14 weeks ago||sounds good||
Where in A2 can you buy that stuff?
|1 year 14 weeks ago||Moosehead||
I'm a cheap Canadian
|1 year 14 weeks ago||Thanks!||
|1 year 15 weeks ago||Year-to-year dependence||
I did something very similar, looking at year-to-year dependence for fumble recoveries in 120 teams over a 10 year period. I ran a simple linear model, regressing fumble recoveries in year T on recoveries in year T-1. I also tried including "fixed-effects" (i.e. team dummies) to control for unobserved heterogeneity between teams. The results are pretty clear:
Last year's fumble recovery rate explains only about 2% of the variance in this year's numbers (R^2). Also, the coefficient on the lagged dependent variable appears to be *negative*
I also drew a neat picture that Brian used on the front page at some point.
The data and R code I used can be found here:
Here's the content of my email to Brian:
A sentence in Blue Seoul's recent Nebraska recap led me to re-visit your claims that fumble recoveries are random. I got data from teamrankings.com and drew a graph that you may (or may not) find useful (see attached for 2012 opponents).
In addition, I estimated a simple linear model using fumble recovery rate in year t to predict fumble recovery rate in year t+1. The model also controls for the baseline recovery rate of each team by allowing intercept shifts. Two things stand out. First, past recovery rates explain relatively little variation in current recovery rates (R-squared=0.13 in a model with lagged DV and team fixed effects). Second, the relationship between recovery rates last year and recovery rates this year is *negative* and statistically significant. If this general pattern holds true in the case of Michigan this year, we should expect the team to recover fumbles at a slightly lower rate than its baseline for the 2002-2012 period (i.e. 61.57%). Obviously, this is a ridiculously simple model, but it reinforces whatever evidence you were basing your previous comments on.
And the basic results:
> # Manual FE > mod_fe = plm(recovery_rate ~ lag(recovery_rate, 1), model='within', data=dat) > mod_pool = plm(recovery_rate ~ lag(recovery_rate, 1), model='pooling', data=dat) > summary(mod_fe) Oneway (individual) effect Within Model Call: plm(formula = recovery_rate ~ lag(recovery_rate, 1), data = dat, model = "within") Unbalanced Panel: n=120, T=4-9, N=1069 Residuals : Min. 1st Qu. Median 3rd Qu. Max. -113.000 -5.590 0.113 5.620 88.600 Coefficients : Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(>|t|) lag(recovery_rate, 1) -0.148795 0.032253 -4.6134 4.505e-06 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Total Sum of Squares: 130790 Residual Sum of Squares: 127920 R-Squared : 0.021958 Adj. R-Squared : 0.019472 F-statistic: 21.2833 on 1 and 948 DF, p-value: 4.5054e-06 > summary(mod_pool) Oneway (individual) effect Pooling Model Call: plm(formula = recovery_rate ~ lag(recovery_rate, 1), data = dat, model = "pooling") Unbalanced Panel: n=120, T=4-9, N=1069 Residuals : Min. 1st Qu. Median 3rd Qu. Max. -126.000 -5.840 0.208 5.880 107.000 Coefficients : Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 51.308810 1.581618 32.4407 <2e-16 *** lag(recovery_rate, 1) -0.026893 0.030823 -0.8725 0.3831 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 Total Sum of Squares: 147510 Residual Sum of Squares: 147410 R-Squared : 0.00071295 Adj. R-Squared : 0.00071161 F-statistic: 0.761256 on 1 and 1067 DF, p-value: 0.38313
|1 year 15 weeks ago||Refugee irony||
Yeah, this was funny at first, but I think you're starting to overplay that refugee-irony bit. I'm sure you're right that the MSM will have a trip with this stuff, but that doesn't give us the right to trivialize.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||Delete me||
|1 year 23 weeks ago||Abstracts||
Most academic journal articles start with an abstract that states the question that is adressed and that answer that is given. So I guess I disagree with your characterization of academic writing as mystery novels.
|1 year 29 weeks ago||Wrong comparison group||
"Ex-NFL players are dying at a rate half that of the general population after they retire and are 59 percent less likely to commit suicide."
That's the wrong control group. Comparing how long athletes live to the general population, including fat dudes who have never exercised, is meaningless. The interesting counterfactual is not whether or not these guys would have lived longer if they exercised as much as me, but whether they would have lived longer *in the same physical condition except for the head trauma*.
|1 year 30 weeks ago||My vote goes here|
|1 year 33 weeks ago||right you are||
right you are
|1 year 33 weeks ago||I don't get it||
What was the point of this? I mean, the guy writes decently well, and I guess I wouldn't pass up free advertising for my book in the NY Times either, but really? There are tons of people working shitty jobs and double/night shifts, and this guy complains cause he retired in his mid-30s...
|1 year 34 weeks ago||Or this gem from last year: no suspension, no fine||
Chara hits Pacioretty
|1 year 37 weeks ago||A counterpoint||
I just feel it's my responsibility to say something here. Michigan is a great school, and I am honored to be learning and teaching there. But I think it's important to put things into perspective. The main reason you're going to spend thousands of dollars on college in the next few years is to learn useful stuff. In that regard, Michigan is certainly a fantastic environment, but it also not *that* exceptional. Your life will (hopefully) last a long time, and the years of college should be fun ones, but loving a team and feeling at home on campus for 4 years shouldn't be #1 or even #10 on your list of priorities when looking for a school. Look at the long game.
|1 year 38 weeks ago||you're ugly||
yes you are
|1 year 38 weeks ago||+1||
Smith looks like a machine.
|1 year 39 weeks ago||Yeah, I enjoyed that too||
Yeah, I enjoyed that too
(edit: the Balboa/Elvis bit)
|1 year 39 weeks ago||Keep the good stuff coming||
Keep the good stuff coming. I really appreciate it.
|1 year 46 weeks ago||Bets with too caveats suck!||
Herzog ate his shoe when he lost his bet to Morris. Brian should be a man of honor as well. Bets with caveats suck!