It would be terrible. Fields is a much better QB than Martell and would be an excellent fit in Day's offense. As Fred Jackson might say, "He passes like Dwayne Haskins and runs like J.T. Barrett."
Everyone loses recruits. Alabama has had two five stars decommit this cycle. They lost one in 2017 and two in 2016. They've also lost a number of high four star guys too. It happens to everyone, even Bama
General thought is that it's either Tennessee or Michigan. While Michigan may have been leading, Tennessee has always been close and is selling a new coach and pretty wide open depth chart. Their OC did just leave to become the HC at Western Kentucky, so it's unclear how that impacts his decision.
One interesting things that was mentioned is that he may be thinking about reclassifying into the 2019 class. IMO, if he wants to do that, he's almost certainly going to Tennessee. Tennessee's starting QB was a SO this year and was decent. There's not much behind him-- one other SO and a true FR, both of whom were middle-of-the road three stars.
If we wants to go 2019, he'll have a pretty favorable depth chart at UT, compared to Michigan where even after an RS year, he could potentially be looking at 2 years of McCaffery, 3 years of Milton and directly competing with McNamara.
While he's a great prospect and it would suck to lose him, given our current QB room and the fact that it's a long time before 2020 signing day, I wouldn't sweat it if he chooses UT.
Not much to add given the in-depth analysis here and all of the great comments. Just wanted to say thank you for putting this together. It's a really reasoned analysis of what improved and where we need to go to get to that next level.
I think that this is a thoughtful and ambitious post, and even if I don't agree with a lot of it, I enjoyed reading it as well as the many comments on it. I just have a couple of things to add:
IMO, the perception of what constitutes "elite" has changed in the playoff era.
Prior to the playoffs, it was easier to be considered an elite program. With the old bowl system, you didn't have the same definitive end to the season that you have today. Sure, teams were awarded a national championship, but without a playoff, there was still cachet in winning a New Year's Day bowl or finishing in the Top 10 or even Top 20. Elite programs were ones that showed consistent results over an extended period of time.
Now, the only thing that matters is making the playoff. If you're not in the playoff (and in there a lot) you can't be in the conversation to be "elite". In our case, I think that you could make a convincing take that we've turned into a top 10 program under Harbaugh, but because we haven't made the playoffs we're not considered elite.
I don't know if one definition is more valid than the other, but I think it's important to recognize that what was considered elite in Bo or Lloyd's day is different that what is considered elite today.
Using my current definition, I'd say there are only three elite programs today: Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State.
IMO, if playoff appearances drive elite status, it will be difficult to have more than one elite team in a conference.
I think that one point that the OP somewhat mentions, and is worth considering, is can a conference support more than one elite team?
For all of the bluster about the SEC, other than Alabama, are there any other SEC programs that you would consider close to being elite? During the playoff era, I say that other than Alabama, Georgia the last two years, and Auburn every other year, the SEC has been pretty ordinary. That's helped Alabama. With the erosion and now collapse of Florida State, the ACC is terrible and that's definitely helped Clemson. Also, the fact that both conferences only play 8 conference games makes their paths easier. I'd argue that the Big Ten has had greater depth than either the SEC or ACC over the last couple of year and it also plays 9 conference games, I'd say that makes OSU's run pretty impressive.
All that said, if "elite" is now defined by making the playoffs and in most cases there only being room for one team per conference (at most), can there be two elite programs in a conference? I think it'd be tough. Alabama and Georgia will be an interesting case over the next couple of years-- although, I think that the fact that they are in opposite divisions will help them as they won't always play each other in the regular season.
As it relates to us, to be elite we need to knock off OSU and do it consistently-- but I think we all knew that.
IMO, saying we can't be elite because we live in a rarified air than the current elite programs is ridiculous.
I agree with the OP (and others) that continuing to evolve the offense is something that needs to happen. I don't think that we need to adopt the Air Raid, but better balance between run/pass and incorporating more spread elements to maximize the use of our skill players would help. I also think that the continued evolution of the OL will help us regardless of what we do with the offense scheme. Even though, the line improved significantly throughout the year, I'd still say that was the weakest position group.
I definitely do not buy the argument that we can't recruit at a level that's high enough to win at an elite level and that it's our higher moral and academic character that prevents us from doing so.
Under JH, we may not have reached Alabama or OSU recruiting, but we're definitely comparable to Clemson.
If you take a look at the 247 composite rankings for the classes that are active this season (2014-2018), clearly Alabama and OSU are superior. Alabama's ranks during that period were: 1-1-1-1-5, while OSU was 3-7-4-2-2. On the other hand, Clemson's ranking has been quite good but not earth shattering: 16-9-11-16-7. Michigan's classes were 20-37-8-5-22. If you look at the 2019 classes, Alabama is #1, Clemson is #6, Michigan is #8, and OSU is #12.
The 2014 and 2015 classes are somewhat outliers. 2014 was Hoke's last year and 2015 was the cycle after JH was hired. If we look at JH's full-year classes and include 2019, our rankings are 8-5-22-8. Clemson is 11-16-7-6.
Obviously, recruiting rankings aren't everything as they may hide gaps in classes (e.g. our OL recruiting in 2015 and 2016) and there's attrition that occurs, but based on the rankings, under JH, our recruiting is comparable to at least one of the three elite programs.
I don't buy that we limit ourselves due to academic or character concerns more than anyone else does.
Obviously, Michigan is a great school and should have academic standards, but do we really think that our admission standards for football are similar to Northwestern or Stanford? I think that our current coach disabused that notion while he was at Stanford. Maybe I would buy that our standards are higher than an SEC school, but I know people that have gone to both OSU and Clemson and neither of those schools are diploma mills.
I looked at OSU's commits in 2018 and 2019. They had 38 four star or higher recruits. 30 of them had Michigan offers. Our of the eight that did not receive offers, two were QBs ranked lower than the ones Michigan got, and the other six were among the lowest rated 4-stars in their class. Small sample size and all, but this would seem to show that we tend to recruit the same high level players that OSU does. We certainly don't seem to be more selective in that regard.
As it relates to character concerns, while I think that most of the team seem like good guys, let's not pretend that we haven't had our mix of bad actors on the team. Over the last couple of years, we've had actual criminals as well as academic casualties and generally questionable characters.
I'm not saying that we have any lower standards academically or character wise, but to say that's why we can't be elite is a huge stretch.
I don't know how much the bagman is a problem.
I'm willing to believe that some schools may benefit from the bagman but to think that every elite player that chooses to go to Alabama, Clemson or OSU is doing so because they're getting thousands of dollars or new cars seems like a stretch. My guess is that elite facilities, proven track record of getting players into the pros and the opportunity to win championships has at least something to do with it.
Overall, I agree that we're not an elite program. I'd also say that the standard to be considered elite has gotten much higher since the playoffs. You need to make the playoffs to be elite. Michigan's dilemma is that under Harbaugh, while we definitely are (or moving towards being) a top 10 program, we have one of the few elite programs in the country standing in our way. And until we get past them, a lot of the fanbase and the national media will play on the Talledega Nights line of "If you ain't first, you're last" or in this case, "If you ain't in the Top 4, you're trash." While I get that mentality, I don't agree with it.
I'm am much more optimistic than the OP that we have the potential to be elite. Under Harbaugh, our recruiting has improved to at least being competitive with Clemson and I don't see the same structural issues that they see. That being said, I do agree that we need to make some schematic changes to take that next leap.
It's sad to see guys that are producing leave, but the current team wasn't going to get any better. They were on their way to becoming the post-WS Phillies by hanging on to guys too long-- they still might be given the Verlander and Cabrera contracts, but at least they're trying.
Not sure if they're getting enough for the players they're giving up but given the changing value that teams are placing on rentals vis-a-vis young players, I'm also not sure how much more could have been expected.
It's sad to see guys that are producing leave, but the current team wasn't going to get any better. They were on their way to becoming the post-WS Phillies by hanging on to guys too long-- they still might be given the Verlander and Cabrera contracts, but at least they're trying.
Not sure if they're getting enough for the players they're giving up but given the changing value that teams are placing on rentals vis-a-vis young players, I'm also not sure how much more could have been expected.
I work in Fort Worth. I don't know the extent of a gas shortage in the DFW area, but I can tell you tthat one of my co-workers had to go to four stations before finding one that had gas. Another had to wait an hour in line to get gas.
My guess is that even if there isn't a gas shortage, the mere thought of one will lead to long lines and high prices this weekend.
Taylor took his OV on September 24 for the PSU game. Also, he was just up for the Indiana game. Things could certainly change, but it still looks like he's in the class.
Barnett may be a great talent but we've got a ton of talent at QB with Speight, O'Korn, Peters and McCaffery. More is better, but not sure we need him.
Also, given that he just left Alabama because he didn't want to compete with Hurts, it's hard to see him looking at our depth chart and finding it appealing when there are a lot of other high level programs that are hurting for QB talent. Just looking at the list of schools listed in that article, all of them have a much clearer path to starting QB than we do.
If I had to guess, I'd say he ends up at Oregon. He was interested in them before he committed to ND (and then to Alabama), they have nothing at QB after Prukop and don't have anyone commited in their class yet.
I haven't heard anything about us recruiting Simmons or him having any interest in us. Simmons's future seems to be at either LB or RB. We're full on the RB side, with the only guys being recruiting are swing for the fences guys like Najee Harris. On the LB side, we're in on a lot of guys and haven't heard his name among them.
Simmons would have been a nice addition to the class, but it never felt like the staff prioritized him the way that OSU did, so I can understand why he's going there.
I don't think any of them are close and the Lions are probably the furthest away at the moment. However, the NFL is the league where you can turnaround and build a contender in the shortest amount of time. If Quinn can bring that NE magic to Detroit, they could turn into a contender sooner rather than later.
Overall thoughts:
1. Lions- As noted above, they don't seem close but there are several recent examples of teams being terrible for extended periods of time and quickly jumping into contention: the 49ers pre-Harbaugh, the Seahawks pre-Caroll, the Saints pre-Payton, etc. You get the right front office and the right coach and you can contend pretty quickly. Not sure the Lions have either, but it could happen.
2. Wings- Historically good front office, some good prospects at GR, new arena coming up. However, they seem to be in neutral. Core players like Zetterberg and Kronwall are rapidly aging. They've had some young players come into the lineup but other than Larkin and maybe Mrazek, not sure anyone looks like a star. DeKeyser, Shehan, Nyquist, Smith don't seem to be developing much. Also, they can't get any game changing FAs to look at them.
3. Pistons- They have a good young core, but not I'm sure there's enough upside to get them into the top 4 into the East. I can see them becoming another version of the Chicago Bulls team from the last couple of years. Consistent, contending but never able to break though, never able to draft high enough and then everyone gets old, expensive and/or injured and all of a sudden your window closes.
4. Tigers- Probably the most talented team in Detroit right now, but they don't seem to have enough consistency to get it done this year. Most of their star players are on the wrong side of 30, the Cabrera and Verlander contracts are unlikely to age well and the farm system is bad. I could see them contending this year, maybe next, but also wouldn't be surprised to see them fall into a Phillies-like cliff with all the old players/poor farm system.
Obviously, he was upset and let the world know it, but it's completely short-sighted. Who's going to hire him after that?
Hope that this doesn't keep LaVall from succeeding there. He did some good work here and it would be great to see him to develop into a potential successor for JB down the line.
A lot of the thoughts regarding the Swenson situation specifically and recruiting in general seem to focus on 'PULLING OPPORTUNITIES IS IMMORAL' or "WIN AT ALL COST OF GTFO."
There is a lot of middle ground. I don't think there's anything wrong with pulling a scholarship or putting a guy on grayshirt as long as therej's a clear and honest expectation between the two parties. My thoughts on the Swenson situation would vary significantly based on how it played out.
If the coaches were telling him all this time that everything was good,. He visits several times and hears everything was good. Drevno visits his school on 12/5 (per 247 Sports) and tells him everything is good--- and then they just call him this week out of the blue and said we're moving in a different direction-- yeah, that kind of sucks.
On the other hand, if they laid out a clear expectation that yes, you have a scholarship offer. It is contingent on us seeing improvement in your play. Based on timing, we might not be able to give you a definitive answer until January. It's not a guarantee, so if you decide to look around, we will definitely understand. They look at his tape and see that he didn't improve and Drevno gives him the news when he visits the school.--- that's a completely different story.
I would like to think that it's the latter scenario. Given the fact that Michigan needs several OL and doesn't have anyone close to taking his place, that scenario would seem to make the most sense to me. As someone who wants to see the team win and to do it well-- I hope that's the case.
If you're trying to show examples of where the staff screwed a kid or where the situatiion ended up badly for the kid, you didn't choose very well.
Pipkins was told in June that the staff thought he should take a Medical Hardship. They gave the option to stay and finish his degree or plenty of time to transfer. Michigan didn't get any advantage by letting him go from a scholarship numbers perspective.
By various reports, Falcon was asked by the staff to pass on playing his senior year and focus on rehab. He decided to play and got injured. Based on that the staff pulled his offer in October-- four and a half months before signing day. They also offered him the opportunity to go on medical and get a free education at Michigan.
Colter is an example of the team breaking up with him where it turned out pretty well for the player. He ended up getting a degree from one of the best universities in the country and also ended up one of NU's best offensive players in a long time.
Not sure what happened with Swenson, but to say that the staff definitely screwed him by pointing at Pipkins or Falcon or saying that it's not going to work out for the kid by pointing at Colter definitely doesn't make sense.
Wonder if Gary Andersen makes a run to bring Aranda to OSU to replace Sitake? I assume that he tried to bring him when he moved last year, so not sure if anything's changed to get him to go now. Still, have to assume that's who he would want.
Simply deciding on the NFL shouldn't make him a villian. However, if it comes out that he was never considering coming to Michigan and only used us to drive up his next NFL contract? Well, that would be a little harder to take.
I'm surprised to hear people think that 7 or 8 wins would be good next year under Harbaugh or any new coach for that matter. As bad as this year has been, we were just a couple of plays away in the Rutgers and Maryland games from having 7 wins right now.
Even though we're breaking in a new QB, we have a lot of talent coming back on both sides of the ball. Also, while the non-conference schedule should be more difficult, we still have three games at home. The B1G schedule will also be better as our toughest games are at home.
If Hoke were here, I would expect 7 wins from those factors alone. If we get a new coach, I'll be disappointed if we don't do a couple of games better than that.
Yeah, if football hires are what you're considering, Bates hired Shane Montgomery, Mike Haywood and Don Treadwell at Miami, all of whom were disasters. Addazio seems to be working out better at BC. Phillips hired Jerry Kill, which turned out much better.
Now, Long hired Bobby Petrino and Bret Bielema (pretending the John L Smith era never happened). Good hires--character issues notwithstanding.
Being in the Chicago area, I can say that Phillips is pretty well regarded here. He had a good stint at Northern Illinois, where he was probably best known for hiring Jerry Kill, who was at that time a pretty unknown coach at Southern Illinois.
Since coming to NU, he's helped to drive the planning and development for their new lakefront facilities which look like they're going to be awesome. He inherited Fitz so unclear how he would approach hiring a football coach at the B10 level, but the Kill hire at NIU was a winner. He probably stuck with Carmody too long and the jury is still out in Collins but we have Belein so we're fine.
Unlike Brandon, Phillips has a lot of background in college athletics working at Arizona State, Tennessee and Notre Dame before going to NIU. He also seems pretty media savvy, which would be a nice change. He's definitely a Midwest guy as an Illinois grad and has been mentioned for AD openings at Illinois and Penn State in the past. Salary at NU is around $750k according to the Chicago Tribune.
This is a ridiculous statement. We may not be in great shape right now, but let's keep things in perspective. We're not nearly in the hole that Penn State was after Sandusky and they were able to get not one, but two great coaches in O'Brian and Franklin.
Even if you don't take the history into account, Michigan is a top job just based on our facilities, salaries that we'll pay for a head coach and assistants, talent on board (at least based on stars), etc. The attractiveness of the job will also increase if Brandon leaves.
We may not be able to lure a coach from an elite program that can offer a lot of the same advantages, but that's a huge difference from a coach needing to be out of their mind to accept this position or that we'll need to take a complete flyer on a guy the way that OSU did with Tressel.
The article is fine, but there's nothing there that hasn't been completely played to death already. In terms of the "some" who figure that there's no way Michigan keeps Hoke barring a miraculous turnaround, I can only imagine that's the author trolling just about every Michigan board on the internet.
As someone living in Chicago, there's nothing at all about Fitz's job being remotely in jeopardy, even with the awful loss to Cal.
In addition to being Mr. Northwestern due to his playing career and the way he took over after Randy Walker died, the overall perception is that he's done a good job. They win more than they lose and his players graduate-- which is pretty much a recipe for staying forever at NU. He also put togeher a nice recruiting class last year and has another nice one going this year, so the thought is that the future is bright.
The other thing working in his favor is that Northwestern doesn't fire coaches in a hurry-- this is the same school that kept Bill Carmody as coach for 13 years without an NCAA berth and a 32% conference winning percentage.
The only thing that could do him in is an academic/ off-field scandal or if the program totally tanks and NU wants to get a new coach as they rollout out their new football complex over the next couple of years.
I'm not sure why there's this clear need on this board to denigrate Izzo's accomplishments. Yeah, his standing with the media may outweigh reality, but calling him "Jud Heathcote 2.0" is ridiculous. Did he benefit from Michigan flaming out? Probably, but he's turned Michigan State into one of the best programs in the country, when it wasn't much of anything before he got there.
That being said, I think its reasonable to question where they go from here. I've never thought that there was "doing more with less" argument for his program (hello, that 's Mark Dantonio's meme). He's consistently gotten good players. He's not doing that now, so we'll see how far they go given the poor classes he's pulled in over the last couple of years.
Despite the success of his teams, given Izzo's lack of success getting players drafted, I'm not sure why a high ranking player would go to State at all. While Gary Harris will likely go in the 1st round, in the 19 years that Izzo has been at State, only 6 players have been drafted in the first round-- and only 2 have gone in the top 15. State hasn't had a player go in the first round since 2006.
As pointed out by the OP, it's not he hasn't had talent. Izzo's had tons of guys who came in highly ranked and ended up doing nothing in the pros such as Kelvin Torbert, Marcus Taylor, Paul Davis. Who is the last guy from State that was even a regular starter in the NBA? Jason Richardson? Zach Randolph? Izzo may win a lot of games, but his track record of getting guys to pros leaves much to be desired.
You expect to see a bunch of decommittments when you have a coaching change (Hi Vanderbilt!), but I don't think I've seen anything like this in a while. Seems like the off-the-field and on-the-field stuff has caught up to them.
Gopherfan-- I wouldn't say that I'm confident that Jones will flip from Minnesota but it definitely seems like there's a chance it could happen. He's expressed interest and Michigan's getting his last visit before signing day, which is a good sign. Even though he only recently got an offer, he has visited the campus before and knows the staff somewhat. Also, several analysts that follow this stuff a closer than I do are saying that Michigan is in a good position (Michigan has actually taken the lead in 247 Crystal Ball projections). The other factor is that Jones has always been a soft commit to Minnesota. I don't think that anyone would be surprised if he switched schools-- whether to Michigan or somewhere else.
That being said, he hasn't flipped anywhere else and Michigan is definitely getting in late. Given that, I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't end up in AA. But I also wouldn't be surprised if he did end up there.
So if Devin is out, that means that Shane is #1 and I assume that Cleary moves up to #2. Who is the #3 guy? Is it Bellomy or Alex Swieca? Ordinarily, I would assume it would be Bellomy (given that he already used up his RS year as a FR), but given that he hasn't played at all this year and that he might have a chance for medical redshirt for a sixth year, would they keep him on the shelf and use Swieca? Might it even be Jeremy Gallon?
I will say that one of the few recruiting issues I've had with this staff is not picking up a QB in the 2012 class. That's the main reason that Shane had to burn his RS this year and is also directly responsible for us having either two walk-ons backing him up this game or having one walk-on and another guy that just started practicing.
Does anyone remember what happened with QB recruiting that year? I was looking on Touch the Banner and it listed several guys with offers. If I remember correctly, we finished second for Zeke Pike (which seems like a blessing now) and had somewhat of a shot with Gunnar Kiel (who seemed to cool on Michigan after Shane committed) and don't remember being close to getting any of the other guys. Did the staff just stop going after guys after Shane committed and we lost out on Pike and Kiel?
Dantonio's not going anywhere. He's got a good gig at State. Also, I think that his age and the lack of consistency in State's results are detriments to him getting a better job. I mean, he had those two outstanding years, but his overall head coaching record is 76-46, which is good but not great.
I think that the other thing to keep in mind is that there aren't a ton of jobs better than the one that he's got now. If you look at the BCS, there's only about four to six jobs in each conference that would either a lateral or an outright improvement over State. Those jobs don't turn over very often and when they do, they're often looking in-house or for the next big thing.
My guess is Narduzzi gets a HC job sometime. I bet he would have gotten the Cincy job had they not hired Tuberville.
Dantonio's not going anywhere. He's got a good gig at State. Also, I think that his age and the lack of consistency in State's results are detriments to him getting a better job. I mean, he had those two outstanding years, but his overall head coaching record is 76-46, which is good but not great.
I think that the other thing to keep in mind is that there aren't a ton of jobs better than the one that he's got now. If you look at the BCS, there's only about four to six jobs in each conference that would either a lateral or an outright improvement over State. Those jobs don't turn over very often and when they do, they're often looking in-house or for the next big thing.
My guess is Narduzzi gets a HC job sometime. I bet he would have gotten the Cincy job had they not hired Tuberville.
Wins against IU, Nebraska and Iowa. Losses to Sparty, NU and OSU. If you made me choose an over/under on 3-3, I'd take the under. Not seeing how we win the projected losses. Can definitely see us blowing one of the projected wins.
After the way this season has started would a loss to any of the teams left on our schedule surprise you?
I saw that Corey Tropp was supposed to be playing for the Sabres until he broke his jaw in a fight last week. For any of you that remember his hit on Kampfer a couple of weeks back, you may want to google the clip of this fight as it'll restore your faith that what comes around goes around.
Just looking at the film, I'm surprised that Dillman is so highly rated as a pro-style QB. On the highlight reel, fewer than half the clips are of him passing and most of those are just him hitting guys within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage-- most of them right up the middle.
Overall, there are some great clips as he's obviously a great athlete, but in terms of his passing ability, his film doesn't look as impressive as what you usually see from a top QB prospect-- much less a 5-star guy ranked as the #3 pro-style QB in the country. Did he do great on the camp circuit?
Also, why is considered a pro-style guy? Just because he plays under center? He would definitely seem to be a better fit as a dual-threat guy given his running ability.
Narduzzi should get a shot somewhere given the success that he's had at MSU. My guess is his ceiling for a HC position is a mid-level job at a AQ conference. He's done well enough for an Illinois/ NC State/ Texas Tech sort of a job. He definitely shouldn't leave State for a dead end job like EMU.
I don't think that he has the national recognition to get a USC-type job right off the bat. I don't think that's a slam against Narduzzi, I just don't think those jobs go to coordinators very often. Not counting where a coordinator was internally promoted, the only recent example I can think of is Muschamp going from UT to Florida.
At this point, it wouldn't have made sense for Jacksonville to start Henne over Gabbert. Jacksonville's not going anywhere this season and they want to see whether they can salvage Gabbert or if they need to draft another QB next season. Henne's gotten a number of chances to start and hasn't done much with them. At this point, his best bet seems to be developing into a quality backup like Shaun Hill.
In other years, losing in-state guys to State (if that is what might happen) would be a concern, but as this year's class is going to be small, a lot of guys that might have gotten an offer aren't going to get one leaving them for State.
Kyonta Stallworth is a four-star guy with offers from UCLA and Florida. He probably would get an offer if we had a 20+ member class, but we can't even offer Chuma Edoga, who appears to be a much better player who loves(ed) Michigan because of small class size. You could go down the list with guys like Campbell and John Kelly who might not get offers or guys like Weber or Alabi that might not get recruited as hard. Doesn't mean they can't play or that State won't be better having them-- it's just the circumstance of a smaller class.
What would be totally Sparty though would be to have Michigan pass on those guys and have them go out-of-state. That meltdown would be fun to watch.
The only guy that would really both me if we lost to State would be Cole, but when was the last time State beat us for an in-state Plan A guy without academic issues? Lawrence Thomas in 2011? We lose one in-state battle every four years, I can live with that.
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If Yoder wrote that, I'm guessing that is definitely what did NOT happen.
Applewhite was actually Saban's first OC at Alabama. He was there one year (2007) and then left to go to Texas.
Would love to see Lane Kiffin go back there. Unlikely but that first press conference would be gold.
Spencer Rattler played against the same competition and it didn't hurt his ranking.
+1 for the Visionquest reference. That was a pretty crazy recruiting story.
It would be terrible. Fields is a much better QB than Martell and would be an excellent fit in Day's offense. As Fred Jackson might say, "He passes like Dwayne Haskins and runs like J.T. Barrett."
Everyone loses recruits. Alabama has had two five stars decommit this cycle. They lost one in 2017 and two in 2016. They've also lost a number of high four star guys too. It happens to everyone, even Bama
General thought is that it's either Tennessee or Michigan. While Michigan may have been leading, Tennessee has always been close and is selling a new coach and pretty wide open depth chart. Their OC did just leave to become the HC at Western Kentucky, so it's unclear how that impacts his decision.
One interesting things that was mentioned is that he may be thinking about reclassifying into the 2019 class. IMO, if he wants to do that, he's almost certainly going to Tennessee. Tennessee's starting QB was a SO this year and was decent. There's not much behind him-- one other SO and a true FR, both of whom were middle-of-the road three stars.
If we wants to go 2019, he'll have a pretty favorable depth chart at UT, compared to Michigan where even after an RS year, he could potentially be looking at 2 years of McCaffery, 3 years of Milton and directly competing with McNamara.
While he's a great prospect and it would suck to lose him, given our current QB room and the fact that it's a long time before 2020 signing day, I wouldn't sweat it if he chooses UT.
Not much to add given the in-depth analysis here and all of the great comments. Just wanted to say thank you for putting this together. It's a really reasoned analysis of what improved and where we need to go to get to that next level.
I think that this is a thoughtful and ambitious post, and even if I don't agree with a lot of it, I enjoyed reading it as well as the many comments on it. I just have a couple of things to add:
IMO, the perception of what constitutes "elite" has changed in the playoff era.
Prior to the playoffs, it was easier to be considered an elite program. With the old bowl system, you didn't have the same definitive end to the season that you have today. Sure, teams were awarded a national championship, but without a playoff, there was still cachet in winning a New Year's Day bowl or finishing in the Top 10 or even Top 20. Elite programs were ones that showed consistent results over an extended period of time.
Now, the only thing that matters is making the playoff. If you're not in the playoff (and in there a lot) you can't be in the conversation to be "elite". In our case, I think that you could make a convincing take that we've turned into a top 10 program under Harbaugh, but because we haven't made the playoffs we're not considered elite.
I don't know if one definition is more valid than the other, but I think it's important to recognize that what was considered elite in Bo or Lloyd's day is different that what is considered elite today.
Using my current definition, I'd say there are only three elite programs today: Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State.
IMO, if playoff appearances drive elite status, it will be difficult to have more than one elite team in a conference.
I think that one point that the OP somewhat mentions, and is worth considering, is can a conference support more than one elite team?
For all of the bluster about the SEC, other than Alabama, are there any other SEC programs that you would consider close to being elite? During the playoff era, I say that other than Alabama, Georgia the last two years, and Auburn every other year, the SEC has been pretty ordinary. That's helped Alabama. With the erosion and now collapse of Florida State, the ACC is terrible and that's definitely helped Clemson. Also, the fact that both conferences only play 8 conference games makes their paths easier. I'd argue that the Big Ten has had greater depth than either the SEC or ACC over the last couple of year and it also plays 9 conference games, I'd say that makes OSU's run pretty impressive.
All that said, if "elite" is now defined by making the playoffs and in most cases there only being room for one team per conference (at most), can there be two elite programs in a conference? I think it'd be tough. Alabama and Georgia will be an interesting case over the next couple of years-- although, I think that the fact that they are in opposite divisions will help them as they won't always play each other in the regular season.
As it relates to us, to be elite we need to knock off OSU and do it consistently-- but I think we all knew that.
IMO, saying we can't be elite because we live in a rarified air than the current elite programs is ridiculous.
I agree with the OP (and others) that continuing to evolve the offense is something that needs to happen. I don't think that we need to adopt the Air Raid, but better balance between run/pass and incorporating more spread elements to maximize the use of our skill players would help. I also think that the continued evolution of the OL will help us regardless of what we do with the offense scheme. Even though, the line improved significantly throughout the year, I'd still say that was the weakest position group.
I definitely do not buy the argument that we can't recruit at a level that's high enough to win at an elite level and that it's our higher moral and academic character that prevents us from doing so.
Under JH, we may not have reached Alabama or OSU recruiting, but we're definitely comparable to Clemson.
If you take a look at the 247 composite rankings for the classes that are active this season (2014-2018), clearly Alabama and OSU are superior. Alabama's ranks during that period were: 1-1-1-1-5, while OSU was 3-7-4-2-2. On the other hand, Clemson's ranking has been quite good but not earth shattering: 16-9-11-16-7. Michigan's classes were 20-37-8-5-22. If you look at the 2019 classes, Alabama is #1, Clemson is #6, Michigan is #8, and OSU is #12.
The 2014 and 2015 classes are somewhat outliers. 2014 was Hoke's last year and 2015 was the cycle after JH was hired. If we look at JH's full-year classes and include 2019, our rankings are 8-5-22-8. Clemson is 11-16-7-6.
Obviously, recruiting rankings aren't everything as they may hide gaps in classes (e.g. our OL recruiting in 2015 and 2016) and there's attrition that occurs, but based on the rankings, under JH, our recruiting is comparable to at least one of the three elite programs.
I don't buy that we limit ourselves due to academic or character concerns more than anyone else does.
Obviously, Michigan is a great school and should have academic standards, but do we really think that our admission standards for football are similar to Northwestern or Stanford? I think that our current coach disabused that notion while he was at Stanford. Maybe I would buy that our standards are higher than an SEC school, but I know people that have gone to both OSU and Clemson and neither of those schools are diploma mills.
I looked at OSU's commits in 2018 and 2019. They had 38 four star or higher recruits. 30 of them had Michigan offers. Our of the eight that did not receive offers, two were QBs ranked lower than the ones Michigan got, and the other six were among the lowest rated 4-stars in their class. Small sample size and all, but this would seem to show that we tend to recruit the same high level players that OSU does. We certainly don't seem to be more selective in that regard.
As it relates to character concerns, while I think that most of the team seem like good guys, let's not pretend that we haven't had our mix of bad actors on the team. Over the last couple of years, we've had actual criminals as well as academic casualties and generally questionable characters.
I'm not saying that we have any lower standards academically or character wise, but to say that's why we can't be elite is a huge stretch.
I don't know how much the bagman is a problem.
I'm willing to believe that some schools may benefit from the bagman but to think that every elite player that chooses to go to Alabama, Clemson or OSU is doing so because they're getting thousands of dollars or new cars seems like a stretch. My guess is that elite facilities, proven track record of getting players into the pros and the opportunity to win championships has at least something to do with it.
Overall, I agree that we're not an elite program. I'd also say that the standard to be considered elite has gotten much higher since the playoffs. You need to make the playoffs to be elite. Michigan's dilemma is that under Harbaugh, while we definitely are (or moving towards being) a top 10 program, we have one of the few elite programs in the country standing in our way. And until we get past them, a lot of the fanbase and the national media will play on the Talledega Nights line of "If you ain't first, you're last" or in this case, "If you ain't in the Top 4, you're trash." While I get that mentality, I don't agree with it.
I'm am much more optimistic than the OP that we have the potential to be elite. Under Harbaugh, our recruiting has improved to at least being competitive with Clemson and I don't see the same structural issues that they see. That being said, I do agree that we need to make some schematic changes to take that next leap.
The AD said that he was told by the President and the Board that eliminating football or dropping it down to FCS was not an option.
I read that current athletes would be able to remain at school on scholarship. I don't know about athletes that have committed but not yet enrolled.
Who upvoted this thread?
It's sad to see guys that are producing leave, but the current team wasn't going to get any better. They were on their way to becoming the post-WS Phillies by hanging on to guys too long-- they still might be given the Verlander and Cabrera contracts, but at least they're trying.
Not sure if they're getting enough for the players they're giving up but given the changing value that teams are placing on rentals vis-a-vis young players, I'm also not sure how much more could have been expected.
It's sad to see guys that are producing leave, but the current team wasn't going to get any better. They were on their way to becoming the post-WS Phillies by hanging on to guys too long-- they still might be given the Verlander and Cabrera contracts, but at least they're trying.
Not sure if they're getting enough for the players they're giving up but given the changing value that teams are placing on rentals vis-a-vis young players, I'm also not sure how much more could have been expected.
I work in Fort Worth. I don't know the extent of a gas shortage in the DFW area, but I can tell you tthat one of my co-workers had to go to four stations before finding one that had gas. Another had to wait an hour in line to get gas.
My guess is that even if there isn't a gas shortage, the mere thought of one will lead to long lines and high prices this weekend.
Taylor actually has taken his OV. He took it on September 24 for the PSU game. He was also up for the Indiana game in November.
Taylor took his OV on September 24 for the PSU game. Also, he was just up for the Indiana game. Things could certainly change, but it still looks like he's in the class.
Barnett may be a great talent but we've got a ton of talent at QB with Speight, O'Korn, Peters and McCaffery. More is better, but not sure we need him.
Also, given that he just left Alabama because he didn't want to compete with Hurts, it's hard to see him looking at our depth chart and finding it appealing when there are a lot of other high level programs that are hurting for QB talent. Just looking at the list of schools listed in that article, all of them have a much clearer path to starting QB than we do.
If I had to guess, I'd say he ends up at Oregon. He was interested in them before he committed to ND (and then to Alabama), they have nothing at QB after Prukop and don't have anyone commited in their class yet.
I haven't heard anything about us recruiting Simmons or him having any interest in us. Simmons's future seems to be at either LB or RB. We're full on the RB side, with the only guys being recruiting are swing for the fences guys like Najee Harris. On the LB side, we're in on a lot of guys and haven't heard his name among them.
Simmons would have been a nice addition to the class, but it never felt like the staff prioritized him the way that OSU did, so I can understand why he's going there.
I don't think any of them are close and the Lions are probably the furthest away at the moment. However, the NFL is the league where you can turnaround and build a contender in the shortest amount of time. If Quinn can bring that NE magic to Detroit, they could turn into a contender sooner rather than later.
Overall thoughts:
1. Lions- As noted above, they don't seem close but there are several recent examples of teams being terrible for extended periods of time and quickly jumping into contention: the 49ers pre-Harbaugh, the Seahawks pre-Caroll, the Saints pre-Payton, etc. You get the right front office and the right coach and you can contend pretty quickly. Not sure the Lions have either, but it could happen.
2. Wings- Historically good front office, some good prospects at GR, new arena coming up. However, they seem to be in neutral. Core players like Zetterberg and Kronwall are rapidly aging. They've had some young players come into the lineup but other than Larkin and maybe Mrazek, not sure anyone looks like a star. DeKeyser, Shehan, Nyquist, Smith don't seem to be developing much. Also, they can't get any game changing FAs to look at them.
3. Pistons- They have a good young core, but not I'm sure there's enough upside to get them into the top 4 into the East. I can see them becoming another version of the Chicago Bulls team from the last couple of years. Consistent, contending but never able to break though, never able to draft high enough and then everyone gets old, expensive and/or injured and all of a sudden your window closes.
4. Tigers- Probably the most talented team in Detroit right now, but they don't seem to have enough consistency to get it done this year. Most of their star players are on the wrong side of 30, the Cabrera and Verlander contracts are unlikely to age well and the farm system is bad. I could see them contending this year, maybe next, but also wouldn't be surprised to see them fall into a Phillies-like cliff with all the old players/poor farm system.
I've been waiting a couple of weeks for this announcement and now will be waiting anxiously to receive my copies in July.
Obviously, he was upset and let the world know it, but it's completely short-sighted. Who's going to hire him after that?
Hope that this doesn't keep LaVall from succeeding there. He did some good work here and it would be great to see him to develop into a potential successor for JB down the line.
A lot of the thoughts regarding the Swenson situation specifically and recruiting in general seem to focus on 'PULLING OPPORTUNITIES IS IMMORAL' or "WIN AT ALL COST OF GTFO."
There is a lot of middle ground. I don't think there's anything wrong with pulling a scholarship or putting a guy on grayshirt as long as therej's a clear and honest expectation between the two parties. My thoughts on the Swenson situation would vary significantly based on how it played out.
If the coaches were telling him all this time that everything was good,. He visits several times and hears everything was good. Drevno visits his school on 12/5 (per 247 Sports) and tells him everything is good--- and then they just call him this week out of the blue and said we're moving in a different direction-- yeah, that kind of sucks.
On the other hand, if they laid out a clear expectation that yes, you have a scholarship offer. It is contingent on us seeing improvement in your play. Based on timing, we might not be able to give you a definitive answer until January. It's not a guarantee, so if you decide to look around, we will definitely understand. They look at his tape and see that he didn't improve and Drevno gives him the news when he visits the school.--- that's a completely different story.
I would like to think that it's the latter scenario. Given the fact that Michigan needs several OL and doesn't have anyone close to taking his place, that scenario would seem to make the most sense to me. As someone who wants to see the team win and to do it well-- I hope that's the case.
If you're trying to show examples of where the staff screwed a kid or where the situatiion ended up badly for the kid, you didn't choose very well.
Pipkins was told in June that the staff thought he should take a Medical Hardship. They gave the option to stay and finish his degree or plenty of time to transfer. Michigan didn't get any advantage by letting him go from a scholarship numbers perspective.
By various reports, Falcon was asked by the staff to pass on playing his senior year and focus on rehab. He decided to play and got injured. Based on that the staff pulled his offer in October-- four and a half months before signing day. They also offered him the opportunity to go on medical and get a free education at Michigan.
Colter is an example of the team breaking up with him where it turned out pretty well for the player. He ended up getting a degree from one of the best universities in the country and also ended up one of NU's best offensive players in a long time.
Not sure what happened with Swenson, but to say that the staff definitely screwed him by pointing at Pipkins or Falcon or saying that it's not going to work out for the kid by pointing at Colter definitely doesn't make sense.
I believe that Hamilton and Swenson are seen as OTs and Bredson and Onewenu are OG.
Wonder if Gary Andersen makes a run to bring Aranda to OSU to replace Sitake? I assume that he tried to bring him when he moved last year, so not sure if anything's changed to get him to go now. Still, have to assume that's who he would want.
Simply deciding on the NFL shouldn't make him a villian. However, if it comes out that he was never considering coming to Michigan and only used us to drive up his next NFL contract? Well, that would be a little harder to take.
I'm surprised to hear people think that 7 or 8 wins would be good next year under Harbaugh or any new coach for that matter. As bad as this year has been, we were just a couple of plays away in the Rutgers and Maryland games from having 7 wins right now.
Even though we're breaking in a new QB, we have a lot of talent coming back on both sides of the ball. Also, while the non-conference schedule should be more difficult, we still have three games at home. The B1G schedule will also be better as our toughest games are at home.
If Hoke were here, I would expect 7 wins from those factors alone. If we get a new coach, I'll be disappointed if we don't do a couple of games better than that.
Now, Long hired Bobby Petrino and Bret Bielema (pretending the John L Smith era never happened). Good hires--character issues notwithstanding.
Since coming to NU, he's helped to drive the planning and development for their new lakefront facilities which look like they're going to be awesome. He inherited Fitz so unclear how he would approach hiring a football coach at the B10 level, but the Kill hire at NIU was a winner. He probably stuck with Carmody too long and the jury is still out in Collins but we have Belein so we're fine.
Unlike Brandon, Phillips has a lot of background in college athletics working at Arizona State, Tennessee and Notre Dame before going to NIU. He also seems pretty media savvy, which would be a nice change. He's definitely a Midwest guy as an Illinois grad and has been mentioned for AD openings at Illinois and Penn State in the past. Salary at NU is around $750k according to the Chicago Tribune.
I think he would be a great candidate.
This is a ridiculous statement. We may not be in great shape right now, but let's keep things in perspective. We're not nearly in the hole that Penn State was after Sandusky and they were able to get not one, but two great coaches in O'Brian and Franklin.
Even if you don't take the history into account, Michigan is a top job just based on our facilities, salaries that we'll pay for a head coach and assistants, talent on board (at least based on stars), etc. The attractiveness of the job will also increase if Brandon leaves.
We may not be able to lure a coach from an elite program that can offer a lot of the same advantages, but that's a huge difference from a coach needing to be out of their mind to accept this position or that we'll need to take a complete flyer on a guy the way that OSU did with Tressel.
The article is fine, but there's nothing there that hasn't been completely played to death already. In terms of the "some" who figure that there's no way Michigan keeps Hoke barring a miraculous turnaround, I can only imagine that's the author trolling just about every Michigan board on the internet.
As someone living in Chicago, there's nothing at all about Fitz's job being remotely in jeopardy, even with the awful loss to Cal.
In addition to being Mr. Northwestern due to his playing career and the way he took over after Randy Walker died, the overall perception is that he's done a good job. They win more than they lose and his players graduate-- which is pretty much a recipe for staying forever at NU. He also put togeher a nice recruiting class last year and has another nice one going this year, so the thought is that the future is bright.
The other thing working in his favor is that Northwestern doesn't fire coaches in a hurry-- this is the same school that kept Bill Carmody as coach for 13 years without an NCAA berth and a 32% conference winning percentage.
The only thing that could do him in is an academic/ off-field scandal or if the program totally tanks and NU wants to get a new coach as they rollout out their new football complex over the next couple of years.
It arrived on Friday. It was definitely worth the wait :)
I'm not sure why there's this clear need on this board to denigrate Izzo's accomplishments. Yeah, his standing with the media may outweigh reality, but calling him "Jud Heathcote 2.0" is ridiculous. Did he benefit from Michigan flaming out? Probably, but he's turned Michigan State into one of the best programs in the country, when it wasn't much of anything before he got there.
That being said, I think its reasonable to question where they go from here. I've never thought that there was "doing more with less" argument for his program (hello, that 's Mark Dantonio's meme). He's consistently gotten good players. He's not doing that now, so we'll see how far they go given the poor classes he's pulled in over the last couple of years.
Despite the success of his teams, given Izzo's lack of success getting players drafted, I'm not sure why a high ranking player would go to State at all. While Gary Harris will likely go in the 1st round, in the 19 years that Izzo has been at State, only 6 players have been drafted in the first round-- and only 2 have gone in the top 15. State hasn't had a player go in the first round since 2006.
As pointed out by the OP, it's not he hasn't had talent. Izzo's had tons of guys who came in highly ranked and ended up doing nothing in the pros such as Kelvin Torbert, Marcus Taylor, Paul Davis. Who is the last guy from State that was even a regular starter in the NBA? Jason Richardson? Zach Randolph? Izzo may win a lot of games, but his track record of getting guys to pros leaves much to be desired.
You expect to see a bunch of decommittments when you have a coaching change (Hi Vanderbilt!), but I don't think I've seen anything like this in a while. Seems like the off-the-field and on-the-field stuff has caught up to them.
Gopherfan-- I wouldn't say that I'm confident that Jones will flip from Minnesota but it definitely seems like there's a chance it could happen. He's expressed interest and Michigan's getting his last visit before signing day, which is a good sign. Even though he only recently got an offer, he has visited the campus before and knows the staff somewhat. Also, several analysts that follow this stuff a closer than I do are saying that Michigan is in a good position (Michigan has actually taken the lead in 247 Crystal Ball projections). The other factor is that Jones has always been a soft commit to Minnesota. I don't think that anyone would be surprised if he switched schools-- whether to Michigan or somewhere else.
That being said, he hasn't flipped anywhere else and Michigan is definitely getting in late. Given that, I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't end up in AA. But I also wouldn't be surprised if he did end up there.
So if Devin is out, that means that Shane is #1 and I assume that Cleary moves up to #2. Who is the #3 guy? Is it Bellomy or Alex Swieca? Ordinarily, I would assume it would be Bellomy (given that he already used up his RS year as a FR), but given that he hasn't played at all this year and that he might have a chance for medical redshirt for a sixth year, would they keep him on the shelf and use Swieca? Might it even be Jeremy Gallon?
I will say that one of the few recruiting issues I've had with this staff is not picking up a QB in the 2012 class. That's the main reason that Shane had to burn his RS this year and is also directly responsible for us having either two walk-ons backing him up this game or having one walk-on and another guy that just started practicing.
Does anyone remember what happened with QB recruiting that year? I was looking on Touch the Banner and it listed several guys with offers. If I remember correctly, we finished second for Zeke Pike (which seems like a blessing now) and had somewhat of a shot with Gunnar Kiel (who seemed to cool on Michigan after Shane committed) and don't remember being close to getting any of the other guys. Did the staff just stop going after guys after Shane committed and we lost out on Pike and Kiel?
Dantonio's not going anywhere. He's got a good gig at State. Also, I think that his age and the lack of consistency in State's results are detriments to him getting a better job. I mean, he had those two outstanding years, but his overall head coaching record is 76-46, which is good but not great.
I think that the other thing to keep in mind is that there aren't a ton of jobs better than the one that he's got now. If you look at the BCS, there's only about four to six jobs in each conference that would either a lateral or an outright improvement over State. Those jobs don't turn over very often and when they do, they're often looking in-house or for the next big thing.
My guess is Narduzzi gets a HC job sometime. I bet he would have gotten the Cincy job had they not hired Tuberville.
Dantonio's not going anywhere. He's got a good gig at State. Also, I think that his age and the lack of consistency in State's results are detriments to him getting a better job. I mean, he had those two outstanding years, but his overall head coaching record is 76-46, which is good but not great.
I think that the other thing to keep in mind is that there aren't a ton of jobs better than the one that he's got now. If you look at the BCS, there's only about four to six jobs in each conference that would either a lateral or an outright improvement over State. Those jobs don't turn over very often and when they do, they're often looking in-house or for the next big thing.
My guess is Narduzzi gets a HC job sometime. I bet he would have gotten the Cincy job had they not hired Tuberville.
After the way this season has started would a loss to any of the teams left on our schedule surprise you?
Just looking at the film, I'm surprised that Dillman is so highly rated as a pro-style QB. On the highlight reel, fewer than half the clips are of him passing and most of those are just him hitting guys within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage-- most of them right up the middle.
Overall, there are some great clips as he's obviously a great athlete, but in terms of his passing ability, his film doesn't look as impressive as what you usually see from a top QB prospect-- much less a 5-star guy ranked as the #3 pro-style QB in the country. Did he do great on the camp circuit?
Also, why is considered a pro-style guy? Just because he plays under center? He would definitely seem to be a better fit as a dual-threat guy given his running ability.
Narduzzi should get a shot somewhere given the success that he's had at MSU. My guess is his ceiling for a HC position is a mid-level job at a AQ conference. He's done well enough for an Illinois/ NC State/ Texas Tech sort of a job. He definitely shouldn't leave State for a dead end job like EMU.
I don't think that he has the national recognition to get a USC-type job right off the bat. I don't think that's a slam against Narduzzi, I just don't think those jobs go to coordinators very often. Not counting where a coordinator was internally promoted, the only recent example I can think of is Muschamp going from UT to Florida.
At this point, it wouldn't have made sense for Jacksonville to start Henne over Gabbert. Jacksonville's not going anywhere this season and they want to see whether they can salvage Gabbert or if they need to draft another QB next season. Henne's gotten a number of chances to start and hasn't done much with them. At this point, his best bet seems to be developing into a quality backup like Shaun Hill.
Based on 247, State recruits with M offers
2014: None
2013: Reschke, Finley, Jones-- discussed above
2012: Burbridge, Madaris-- Burbridge discussed above, maybe Madaris?
2011: Lawrence Thomas, Ed Davis-- I know we wanted Thomas, pretty sure we wanted Davis too but not certain about that.
In other years, losing in-state guys to State (if that is what might happen) would be a concern, but as this year's class is going to be small, a lot of guys that might have gotten an offer aren't going to get one leaving them for State.
Kyonta Stallworth is a four-star guy with offers from UCLA and Florida. He probably would get an offer if we had a 20+ member class, but we can't even offer Chuma Edoga, who appears to be a much better player who loves(ed) Michigan because of small class size. You could go down the list with guys like Campbell and John Kelly who might not get offers or guys like Weber or Alabi that might not get recruited as hard. Doesn't mean they can't play or that State won't be better having them-- it's just the circumstance of a smaller class.
What would be totally Sparty though would be to have Michigan pass on those guys and have them go out-of-state. That meltdown would be fun to watch.
The only guy that would really both me if we lost to State would be Cole, but when was the last time State beat us for an in-state Plan A guy without academic issues? Lawrence Thomas in 2011? We lose one in-state battle every four years, I can live with that.