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Big Ten strength patterns over the years

While watching games this year, I couldn't help but feel that UM was going up against a Big Ten conference that was better than the past couple of years.  It seems like this is a cycle (remember how the Big Ten was in down years a few years back?).  Do the numbers support that?  Well...  8 of the 11 teams have a winning record this year.  Compared to last seasons:

  • 2009: 5 did,
  • 2008, 7 did,
  • 2007, 8 did
  • 2006, 5 did,
  • 2005, 7 did

Is that weird to anyone else?  I'm almost ready to put down money that says 7 Big Ten teams have winning records next year.  

I guess what I'm saying is that this year's Big Ten was part of the cycle where the conference was really tough, and we still wound up with an overall winning record (while having a tougher out-of-conference schedule than last year as Brian said).  If the pattern holds, we're in for a tough conference again next year.  However, with conference re-alignment, Wisconsin gets replaced with Nebraska (at home) and we get ND and tOSU at home as well. 

That all being said, teams with winning records in conference, home games, conference re-alignment, etc. are nothing compared to more talent infused and experience gotten on D and better execution on O, but as I'm grasping for straws, it felt good to see that my hunch that the conference gamut was tougher this year has some truth to it.  What it means for the future, only DB and his pimp hand truly know that at this point.

Illinois Parallels

I had been thinking this week (while trying to forget the PSU game - 24 hrs to be mad, then move on to next opponent as RR says) that the similarities between Zook's situation last year and RR's this year have SOME interesting parallels. Never would have thought that Angelique Chengelis would have been the one to capture that (normally ignore her fluff pieces).

Those being that I thought Zook would be a gonner after last year, but the AD there gave him one more chance (with some probable pushing to get rid of a lot of his assistants).  I wonder if the eval there was that Zook showed he had some success a few years back and is a documented good recruiter (similar, although not exactly the situation with RR).  I haven't patrolled the Illinois blogs from last year to see if there were similar conversations as are on mgoblog this past week, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were.

Illinois is not UM (in terms of expectations for wins), so the parallels stop there, but Brandon seems like a smart guy who gets it.  If he was like other successful businessmen (and he hasn't shown otherwise), I'd expect he'd look at similar samples around the country and see what has worked in these types of situations and what hasn't.  Maybe Illinois '09 decision is something that becomes part of his sample variables.

Herron?

What happened to Herron?  I know he was hurt before, but he wasn't on the injury report this week and it seemed like they had something going in the ND game when they played Herron in Roh's spot with Roh going to DE. 

Fair Enough

I think I was ready to read into it based on what I read/heard about the other coaches upset Obi was in there in addition to what we saw at the end of the Indiana game where it "looked" like GERG was apologizing profusely as they walked off the field - not to mention Robinson's refusal to talk to the press (although I guess this is his MO). 

At this point, I think I'd still prefer we kept a DC on for more than two years.  I'll try not to jump to conclusions, but like Turner not being able to beat out talent that came in ranked lower than him or Obi losing his starting job at the beginning of the year to Moundros, the tea leaves seem to be taking shape.  But I'll hold off on declaring my opinion that GERG has to go unitl all the games have been played.

Not a real vote of confidence for GERG

Q: Is your faith in defensive coordinator Greg Robinson unwavering?

A: I don't think that's a fair question to ask. It's the same way when a team is struggling, or a quarterback is struggling. I think it's easy to point the finger at one guy. I don't think we should point fingers. We all see the same things and we're all trying to fix it together.

That doesn't really sound that unwavering to me.  And when I was in A2 last week (or maybe it was on mgoblog), I remember reading or hearing that the coaches were yelling at GERG for putting Obi in there for the third drive. 

I'm not sure if we should mix things up again at DC, but since we're already implementing a new D in just the two years he's been here, I have to wonder if GERG is a gonner after this year.

Overall Comparison of those teams and 2010 stats

I like where you're going with this:

Quickly looked up where those teams sat defensively at the end of the year by points per game.

In 2005: Cincy ranked 90th, WVU ranked 10th (so the 3-3-5 can work?): http://g.sg.sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/stats/byteam?cat1=defense&cat2=Total…

In 2006: Cincy ranked 33rd, WVU ranked 47th: http://g.sg.sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/stats/byteam?cat1=defense&cat2=Total…

So far in 2010: Mich St ranked 36th, Michigan 73rd (ouch): http://g.sg.sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/stats/byteam?cat1=defense&cat2=Total…

Of course, this isn't a Mathlete level of quantitative comparisons.

I do like that there is some comparison of RR's offense running like it should against a Dantonio defense (the last two years just don't count much in my opinion).