in re: is GRIII on a tear
- Member for
- 3 years 7 weeks
|3 years 7 weeks ago||A Report Card from The Rebellion||
Public relations overall: 3.0/10
His initial PR slotting is "sincere lug". He gets a Golic. However as little as I know, he does not seem to be adept at keeping good Media relations. And this is about the next 3 years, not 3 days.
Staffing – Overall: 6/10
The Raven's DC is a coup.
On-field Track Record Overall: 6/10
Trying to read the tea leaves, he seems to turn around programs at an accelerating rate.
Recruiting – Overall: 3/10
Again next Rivals will tell. He doesn't seem to have a track record of recruiting HIGHER than his peers.
Purely numeric, UWAG category:
Chances of being Great: 1/10
Same analysis as you.
Chances of helping Dave Brandon keep his job: 1/10
"Defined as: Winning 9 – 9.5 regular season games, beating OSU 1 out of 3, New Years or later Bowl almost always, no Free Press Jihad. 7/10 is a sign that I’m giving in to optimism."
This is where I disagree with you the most. Your definitions here are contradictory. If we beat OSU only 1 out of 3 times in the regular season, we will NOT be going to BCS 90% of the time. With the new Conference Championship Games (CCGs) in P10 and B10, the 10 slots of the BCS will be taken up by CCG winners 6 times, non-AQs 1, and 2nd place in conference 3. To go 90% of the time, we have to add the times we are B10 Champs plus the times we are a STRONG #2 to equal 90%.
If we are losing to OSU 2 out of 3 times, they are the probably opponent in the B10 CCG. Thus we only get to a BCS game 33% of the time that we make the CCG. And if we lose 2 out of 3 to OSU in the regular season, we probably only GET to the CCG no MORE than about 50% of the time, which mean that we win the B10 about 15% of the time. Which is contradictory. The only way to go to a BCS game about 90% of the time is to beat OSU (or whoever is the 2nd best B10 team) about 2/3s of the time.
Thus I think the actual Definition of Helping Brandon Keep his job is: On average be as good as any other (read OSU or Nebraska) B10 team. That means being B10 Champ about 45% of the time, which means going to the CCG about 75% of the time and that means beating OSU about 2/3s of the time. Any less with OSU and other losses will knock you out of the CCG too much, since OSU is in the other division.
Chances of failure: 8/10
Defined as Being B10 champs significantly less than another B10 team (OSU). If OSU is B10 Champs 60%, M 30% and other 10% that would be a strong 2nd, but still failure. We need to be within 10% of the best program.
Even that may be setting the bar too low. If OSU wins 40%, M 30%, Neb 20% and Other 10% but M has no NC or even BCS Game in next 10 years is that SUCCESS???
Name for me a program you consider elite that hasn't been to a BCS Championship game?