I thought that myself when I read that article that talked about a Data Scientist(tm)
- Member for
- 6 years 30 weeks
|5 years 51 weeks ago||You could have just, you||
You could have just, you know, not read it. No one is forcing you to be here and read anything. We all choose to. And if you don't like it, you can just read the parts you like. Jesus, it's not like it's a newspaper you pay for now is it? It's a blog, read what you want, when you want. Is this such a difficult concept?
|6 years 4 days ago||This should definitely be a||
This should definitely be a rule in all sports for applied cheap shots.
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Argh||The picture is like 2 years old isn't it? So it was when Tate was like 16.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Yes but||All teams have homer wagering. In addition, if a line was pumped by Michigan homers away from what is a really expected then money from professionals would likely come into play to equalize the lines. Vegas definitely wants to spur betting, but it wants to spur betting on BOTH SIDES of the line. And yes, while fanbases can be more irrational in certain cases and cause line movement (UM and ND are good examples because of their large followings and money'ed alumni base) the overall effect would be very small (maybe a point on a per game spread, half a game on a win expectancy). The most extreme example of this was the -3 Michigan/ND spread last fall. There was no possible way the teams were that close based on watching them play. I believe it opened at -3 and closed at -9.5 or something. It's pretty rare Vegas gets an opening line that wrong in lieu of something big happening in the interim.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Wins vs Chance to win MNC||
There's actually a big difference between expected wins and chance to win the MNC. You have to look at the distributions under them. Looking at a group of games for Michigan (PSU/Wisconsin/Illinois) if Michigan can win 1, then they can likely win them all, and only OSU would be a large threat. If Michigan loses to one of those teams, they are likely to lose to all 3.
Based on the Vegas odds and win expectancies, I'd wager it's highly likely Michigan's distribution curve has "mini-peaks" around 5 win and 11 wins. This is not the say the odds or 5 wins are the same as the odds of 11, but that Michigan is more likely to win 11 than 10, or 5 than 6/7 than a normal distribution would suggest.
In normal words, if I have a 10% chance to win $15, and a 90% chance to win $5, my expected return is $6. If I have a 50% chance to win $5 and a 50% chance to win $7 my expected return is also $6. However, it's pretty clear that the upside is higher in the first set of outcomes.
I wouldn't call them suckers bets Bryan. It's in Vegas' best interest to set lines/expectencies right on the dot. They want the same amound of money on both sides of the deal (in the case of odds to win MNC they want money according to the odds). Everything in Vegas is set to give the house a very small take from a ton of transactions. In aggregate, you're not really betting against the house in sports betting, you're betting against the people on the other side of the line, and Vegas takes a 1-2% skim for enabling the transaction.
|6 years 28 weeks ago||I think||This needs more ads IMO. State Farm should just get a huge ass graphic on my screen. Unreal how many ads I see right now.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Whoaaa, I can't believe I||Whoaaa, I can't believe I spelled it like that. I'll edit my post.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Unreal||Joe Morgan, Steve Phillips, Chris Berman, and Rick Reilly in the same booth. FJM is going to the biggest field day ever with this.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Oh duh||Yeah, you win.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Absolutely||Bill Martin never saw these jerseys once. At all. Some lackey from the AD just drew them with crayon on a napkin and gave them to Adidas. Unfortuanately for all of us, after he finished drawing the upper shoulder stripes he had flattened the point on his Crayola, which is the reason the lower stripes are so wide. Crayola is the enemy here, not Adidas.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Brian how did you miss this?||
From Marlon Brown's Article:
""Besides tradition, Brown says the most important decision factor is going to be the coaches. "I just want to play for great coaches. I don't care about their coaching style. For me..."
And he lists NOTRE DAME. You missed a perfect shot at Weis E. Coyote.
|6 years 28 weeks ago||The stripes||If you look at the picture closely, it appears that the sides are folded in a bit to show the stripes. Also, you have to consider what this will look like on players from a Terrance Taylor to a Roy Roundtree. A better question is why is the jersey "08". Wouldn't "80" have been a better choice seeing as single digit numbers are just single digits on our jerseys?|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Yep||Every player will be wearing exactly that jersey at exactly that length. You can totally tell length from a picture with no perspectivee.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||It has nothing to do with||It has nothing to do with morals. Bear Sterns shareholders got hosed. Fannie and Freddy will also have shareholders take a bath. Lehman might be next. If the shareholders were getting bailed, the put would exist, but since the banks and their owners are taking 98% of the pain, it's fine.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||What the weak dollar types in||
What the weak dollar types in the Fed have demonstrated is that we will devalue our currency and act as a backstop at the slightest hint of danger -- $29B of loan guarantees to JP Morgan to acquire Bear Stearns.
I stopped reading there, but if you think Bear Sterns about to shut down is only the "slightest hint of danger" then you are out of your mind.
|6 years 28 weeks ago||In that case||I think the majority of this board wants you to shut the hell up. And based on your logic you have no choice but to comply.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||+1 for actually knowing how||
+1 for actually knowing how shit works.
" It is also my belief that access to govt. capital is much more likely then a full-scale bailout" Agreed. Paulson has already said that a bailout would fly in the face of how the system is supposed to work.
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Have a Beer||
I really don't care either way. I was just stating he tried to kill that art program after the "pissing christ" thing. Believe me, I have no problem with offensive, have you read my posts? I purposely attack things I find retarded, and I know I offend people. However, I fail to see how anyone can find art in human excrement on a religious symbol. I disagree wtih the perversion of Islam (terrorists lol), but I wouldn't consider someone shitting on the Koran [sic for American spelling] art.
BlueSeoul, I don't know why you think I'm arguing against you. That was probably my most impartial comment of the past year. 20% of people having no religious affiliation doesn't mean they are offended by Christ, btw. It's possible to have no religious affiliation and still believe in god (deists), or to take the best tenets of each faith. Jesse Helms was a total asshole, but that doesn't mean EVERYTHING he stood for was wrong. I don't think everything is binary; I like to pick the best parts from everything. The biggest problem today is that people don't think for themselves, they align with a group. Turns out, a person can be against abortion and agree with other "Democratic" principles. A person can also be for universal health care and still agree with the Iraq War and vote McCain. The moment you limit yourself to an all or nothing scenario is the moment you become a mindless drone full of fail.
|6 years 28 weeks ago||I found the Grady run||From the 2005 ND UFR "Grady's long run, the cutback here is inexplicable. If he just keeps going he'll get caught, but another 20-30 yards downfield. Paul and Breaston get good blocks to open it up." We turned the ball over on their 12 yard line about 10 plays later. Seriously the game from hell.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Also||Clear cookies and cache after making changes. Otherwise you'll get weird display issues.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Right||Right. I should have reworded my comment. I was pissed at the refs and the bullshit penalty. I was not trying to imply Michigan or Lloyd chose a penalty over a touchdown. Ugh, I could see it from row 40, why couldn't they see it too.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||There was no fiasco||
Just because the media blows something up does not mean it's actually a big deal. Seems to me like Bill Martin and MSC had their fingers right on the pulse of the situation.
Also, find me more than ONE example of an athlete pleading guilty. And then make sure all of those are the initial pleas. I'm sure an actual lawyer can explain this better, but initial pleas upon arraignment are not necessarily set in stone.
Edit: I just looked. Britton was arrested initially in February. He just pleaded on July 7th. Therefore, he evaluated his option for 5 months before pleading. Grady has had like a week. Goddamn dude, employ some critical thought and effort before you start typing next time.
|6 years 28 weeks ago||2002 Washington - Brabbs's||
2002 Washington - Brabbs's game-winning field goal.
My first Michigan game (in person) ever. 4 days before freshman classes started. Hell of a welcome to UM.
|6 years 28 weeks ago||McGuff||
His Sparq rating was outrageous. Sad to hear about Grady though. He's been through 2 knee blowouts. I hope if he's done it's on his own terms, not as a sacrifice to the press. He holds a special place in my heart for breaking a long run in the Minnesota debacle in 2005, but instead of cutting around the last defender and scoring, he just lowered his shoulder and hammered him in the open field around the 30 yard line, basically tackling himself. I think Michigan turned the ball over or didn't score somehow on that drive.
Edit: Actually that wasn't against Minnesota. Does anyone else know the run I'm referring to? I believe it was Grady, might have been Hart, but they broke into the open field, and bowled a guy over around the opponents 35-45 rather than cut back around a block. It drove me insane because we lost that game. I think it was a 20-30 yard run.
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Other officials||Officials from ND-UM 2005. Henne scored on the play before he fumbled dammit. There was some "illegal touching" call. Michigan accepted the penalty on ND (which made no fucking sense because Henne had scored. The rest of the season was just downhill from there.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Lol||RollBamaRoll also just locked the comment threads I was winning and erased at least one of my posts.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||The point||As Brian stated in an earlier post, the problem isn't that Saban's interests (getting down to 85 scholarship players) and the players interests (having a full ride to get a degree) are diametrically opposed at this point. Guilty in a court of law vs guilty in a court of public opinion are totally different things. The same people accusing RR of being a recruit thief (no facts that actually support this) are the same people defending Saban's actions/lack of action/need to cut players (there are plenty of facts to prove motives). It's sad these people can't see this total disconnect.|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Yes||
I like your post, but you also pulled another common human thing. You feel cleaner with Rich Rod than with Les Miles, but since this hypothesis (who would be cleaner at Michigan, Miles or RR) can never be tested, you're a default winner. I'm sure this isn't your intent, but there is a lot of "think, feel, pretty confident, while I don't know" in your post. As you start to defend something where you believe strongly in the outcome, but can't adequately define the steps, language becomes highly conditional and less secure.
Once a person moves away from facts they lose their footing because there is always someone that will "THINK" differently. Please don't take this as an attack. The post is excellent, and it becomes more effective when there isn't a dangling issue (Les Miles) for someone to latch onto and totally ignore the substantiveness of the rest of the post. Basically, and I learned this the hard way, the only way to win an argument over a group of idiots is to make it idiot proof.
|6 years 28 weeks ago||Nah||No point in betting against sure things. Saban is also the coach that dropped DJ Hall's one game suspension against UL-M from a game to a half in order to try and beat them (oops).|
|6 years 28 weeks ago||"(leading me to believe he||"(leading me to believe he didn't think through much else)" Also not fact based and wild speculation.|