This is why coaches shouldn't talk to the press except to say obvious platitudes and other positivity that has no substance.
Bert states a fact that is clear to anyone that can read a depth chart and it gets turned into how he "shredded", "slammed", or "ripped" the previous coach and his team.
Just don't say anything negative in public people. It never pays off or accomplishes anything.
You could have just, you know, not read it. No one is forcing you to be here and read anything. We all choose to. And if you don't like it, you can just read the parts you like. Jesus, it's not like it's a newspaper you pay for now is it? It's a blog, read what you want, when you want. Is this such a difficult concept?
All teams have homer wagering. In addition, if a line was pumped by Michigan homers away from what is a really expected then money from professionals would likely come into play to equalize the lines. Vegas definitely wants to spur betting, but it wants to spur betting on BOTH SIDES of the line. And yes, while fanbases can be more irrational in certain cases and cause line movement (UM and ND are good examples because of their large followings and money'ed alumni base) the overall effect would be very small (maybe a point on a per game spread, half a game on a win expectancy). The most extreme example of this was the -3 Michigan/ND spread last fall. There was no possible way the teams were that close based on watching them play. I believe it opened at -3 and closed at -9.5 or something. It's pretty rare Vegas gets an opening line that wrong in lieu of something big happening in the interim.
There's actually a big difference between expected wins and chance to win the MNC. You have to look at the distributions under them. Looking at a group of games for Michigan (PSU/Wisconsin/Illinois) if Michigan can win 1, then they can likely win them all, and only OSU would be a large threat. If Michigan loses to one of those teams, they are likely to lose to all 3.
Based on the Vegas odds and win expectancies, I'd wager it's highly likely Michigan's distribution curve has "mini-peaks" around 5 win and 11 wins. This is not the say the odds or 5 wins are the same as the odds of 11, but that Michigan is more likely to win 11 than 10, or 5 than 6/7 than a normal distribution would suggest.
In normal words, if I have a 10% chance to win $15, and a 90% chance to win $5, my expected return is $6. If I have a 50% chance to win $5 and a 50% chance to win $7 my expected return is also $6. However, it's pretty clear that the upside is higher in the first set of outcomes.
I wouldn't call them suckers bets Bryan. It's in Vegas' best interest to set lines/expectencies right on the dot. They want the same amound of money on both sides of the deal (in the case of odds to win MNC they want money according to the odds). Everything in Vegas is set to give the house a very small take from a ton of transactions. In aggregate, you're not really betting against the house in sports betting, you're betting against the people on the other side of the line, and Vegas takes a 1-2% skim for enabling the transaction.
Bill Martin never saw these jerseys once. At all. Some lackey from the AD just drew them with crayon on a napkin and gave them to Adidas. Unfortuanately for all of us, after he finished drawing the upper shoulder stripes he had flattened the point on his Crayola, which is the reason the lower stripes are so wide. Crayola is the enemy here, not Adidas.
""Besides tradition, Brown says the most important decision factor is
going to be the coaches. "I just want to play for great coaches. I
don't care about their coaching style. For me..."
And he lists NOTRE DAME. You missed a perfect shot at Weis E. Coyote.
If you look at the picture closely, it appears that the sides are folded in a bit to show the stripes. Also, you have to consider what this will look like on players from a Terrance Taylor to a Roy Roundtree. A better question is why is the jersey "08". Wouldn't "80" have been a better choice seeing as single digit numbers are just single digits on our jerseys?
It has nothing to do with morals. Bear Sterns shareholders got hosed. Fannie and Freddy will also have shareholders take a bath. Lehman might be next. If the shareholders were getting bailed, the put would exist, but since the banks and their owners are taking 98% of the pain, it's fine.
What the weak dollar types in the Fed have demonstrated is that we will
devalue our currency and act as a backstop at the slightest hint of
danger -- $29B of loan guarantees to JP Morgan to acquire Bear Stearns.
I stopped reading there, but if you think Bear Sterns about to shut down is only the "slightest hint of danger" then you are out of your mind.
+1 for actually knowing how shit works.
" It is also my belief that access to govt. capital is much more likely then a full-scale bailout" Agreed. Paulson has already said that a bailout would fly in the face of how the system is supposed to work.
I really don't care either way. I was just stating he tried to kill that art program after the "pissing christ" thing. Believe me, I have no problem with offensive, have you read my posts? I purposely attack things I find retarded, and I know I offend people. However, I fail to see how anyone can find art in human excrement on a religious symbol. I disagree wtih the perversion of Islam (terrorists lol), but I wouldn't consider someone shitting on the Koran [sic for American spelling] art.
BlueSeoul, I don't know why you think I'm arguing against you. That was probably my most impartial comment of the past year. 20% of people having no religious affiliation doesn't mean they are offended by Christ, btw. It's possible to have no religious affiliation and still believe in god (deists), or to take the best tenets of each faith. Jesse Helms was a total asshole, but that doesn't mean EVERYTHING he stood for was wrong. I don't think everything is binary; I like to pick the best parts from everything. The biggest problem today is that people don't think for themselves, they align with a group. Turns out, a person can be against abortion and agree with other "Democratic" principles. A person can also be for universal health care and still agree with the Iraq War and vote McCain. The moment you limit yourself to an all or nothing scenario is the moment you become a mindless drone full of fail.
From the 2005 ND UFR
"Grady's long run, the cutback here is inexplicable. If he just keeps going he'll get caught, but another 20-30 yards downfield. Paul and Breaston get good blocks to open it up."
We turned the ball over on their 12 yard line about 10 plays later. Seriously the game from hell.
Right. I should have reworded my comment. I was pissed at the refs and the bullshit penalty. I was not trying to imply Michigan or Lloyd chose a penalty over a touchdown. Ugh, I could see it from row 40, why couldn't they see it too.
Just because the media blows something up does not mean it's actually a big deal. Seems to me like Bill Martin and MSC had their fingers right on the pulse of the situation.
Also, find me more than ONE example of an athlete pleading guilty. And then make sure all of those are the initial pleas. I'm sure an actual lawyer can explain this better, but initial pleas upon arraignment are not necessarily set in stone.
Edit: I just looked. Britton was arrested initially in February. He just pleaded on July 7th. Therefore, he evaluated his option for 5 months before pleading. Grady has had like a week. Goddamn dude, employ some critical thought and effort before you start typing next time.
His Sparq rating was outrageous. Sad to hear about Grady though. He's been through 2 knee blowouts. I hope if he's done it's on his own terms, not as a sacrifice to the press. He holds a special place in my heart for breaking a long run in the Minnesota debacle in 2005, but instead of cutting around the last defender and scoring, he just lowered his shoulder and hammered him in the open field around the 30 yard line, basically tackling himself. I think Michigan turned the ball over or didn't score somehow on that drive.
Edit: Actually that wasn't against Minnesota. Does anyone else know the run I'm referring to? I believe it was Grady, might have been Hart, but they broke into the open field, and bowled a guy over around the opponents 35-45 rather than cut back around a block. It drove me insane because we lost that game. I think it was a 20-30 yard run.
Officials from ND-UM 2005. Henne scored on the play before he fumbled dammit. There was some "illegal touching" call. Michigan accepted the penalty on ND (which made no fucking sense because Henne had scored. The rest of the season was just downhill from there.
As Brian stated in an earlier post, the problem isn't that Saban's interests (getting down to 85 scholarship players) and the players interests (having a full ride to get a degree) are diametrically opposed at this point. Guilty in a court of law vs guilty in a court of public opinion are totally different things. The same people accusing RR of being a recruit thief (no facts that actually support this) are the same people defending Saban's actions/lack of action/need to cut players (there are plenty of facts to prove motives). It's sad these people can't see this total disconnect.
I like your post, but you also pulled another common human thing. You feel cleaner with Rich Rod than with Les Miles, but since this hypothesis (who would be cleaner at Michigan, Miles or RR) can never be tested, you're a default winner. I'm sure this isn't your intent, but there is a lot of "think, feel, pretty confident, while I don't know" in your post. As you start to defend something where you believe strongly in the outcome, but can't adequately define the steps, language becomes highly conditional and less secure.
Once a person moves away from facts they lose their footing because there is always someone that will "THINK" differently. Please don't take this as an attack. The post is excellent, and it becomes more effective when there isn't a dangling issue (Les Miles) for someone to latch onto and totally ignore the substantiveness of the rest of the post. Basically, and I learned this the hard way, the only way to win an argument over a group of idiots is to make it idiot proof.
No point in betting against sure things. Saban is also the coach that dropped DJ Hall's one game suspension against UL-M from a game to a half in order to try and beat them (oops).
"And still, it is my opinion, that it seems flimsy to me, even if this is the standard procedure to lower your sentencing. "
Wait, are you arguing he should NOT be trying to lower his sentence (it will be probation and community service anyway)? If you have two choices, say "guilty" and seal off your options, or say "not guilty" and retain your options plus the outcomes are better on average (may cost more, but that's why people do cost-benefit and/or decision trees), you would choose to say "guilty"? Damn we need to remove people like you from being U of M fans.
I think they'd nail your ass for obstruction of justice or something in that case. I have no personal experience, but if you said to the officer upon being asked to blow "I don't think those are accurate, but I'll submit to a blood test." I think that would buy you time to head downtown. Like I said though, my concern was less about possible license suspension and more about avoiding a DUI if you're right at the limit.
It is not an instance of cognitive dissonance when the 2 ideas are not diametrically opposed (I can use big words too OMG). On one hand, Rosenberg isn't jumping to conclusions based on too few facts, he's blantantly ignoring what is actually happening to write a shitty article. This is just a pure lie:
"This whole thing could have, and should have, been settled long ago.
But RichRod was determined to fight West Virginia all the way to the
bitter end. Anybody who has even driven past a law school knew he had
no case, but that didn't matter to Rodriguez. "
Michigan has top 5 law school. Bill Martin is a savvy businessman. RichRod had an agreement with Michigan to pay $1.5M of the buyout. RichRod was not determined to fight WVU all the way, UM was make a calculated effort that spending $200k on lawyers could result in reducing the buyout by more than $200k. This is what rational people do. They evaluate costs and benefits.
As to the other half, saying Brian is jumping to conclusions on the bama player, I point to Occam's Razor to explain it. Also the quote: "Asked by phone if Farmer had decided to transfer from Alabama, she
replied, "Now that he would have to answer, but he doesn't want to
speak right now."" is pretty fucking clear in its answer. Of course I can't be 100% sure, but fuck, I can't be 100% sure that the sun's going to rise tomorrow and I'll be alive, can I?
If I knew I was around .08, I'd rather have a suspended license for a year than a DUI conviction. That said, I just don't drink and drive and completely avoid the issue. But you're right, there is no quick and dirty answer to whether to refuse or not. Things you want to avoid (obviously drinking and driving is #1):
1. Failing a field sobriety test on video.
2. Refusing BOTH breath and blood. That violates implied consent, but you can always offer to allow blood but refuse breath. If you're 30 minutes away from a station and know you're borderline, this could bail you out.
I can't find it, but what it does is hashes the image in such a way that hte HTML can be rendered as an image. When I find the link I'll post it. Otherwise, it'll just need a host somewhere. You should be able to use photobucket or imageshack.
You can change the site banner to whatever you want with Stylish. It's a bit more complicated because you have to either use a Photobucket like host or hash the picture to Hex (intertubes have tools for doing this). But the moral of the story is, if you want naked man, you can have naked man. If you want to have a different banner per day, you can do that as well.
Depending on your metabolism, an extra 30 minutes before they take a BAC reading can be the difference between a .08 and a .07. This is why you may want to refuse the breathalyzer.
He's gone, let's all move on as a group. I'm downing a drink in honor of the era ending, Debord gone, and Lloyd's character building. I don't even care about the past anymore, we're not fucking Notre Dame.
This Killian's is for you Lloyd, the Big Ten titles, and the National Championship in '97. Special shout-out to the 2003 win over OSU, for rushing the field and losing track of my friends resulted in things that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
It's standard procedure to plead not guilty to any charge. If you plead guilty then the judge has to assign a sentence. Similarly is pleading no contest but that has different implications. It's not like this will ever go to trial, and it's not like Grady will do jail time.
This isn't going to cost RR much overall, in taxes or otherwise. UM has enough exemptions and tax lawyers to take care of the situation as cheaply as possible.
Recent Comments
This is why coaches shouldn't talk to the press except to say obvious platitudes and other positivity that has no substance.
Bert states a fact that is clear to anyone that can read a depth chart and it gets turned into how he "shredded", "slammed", or "ripped" the previous coach and his team.
Just don't say anything negative in public people. It never pays off or accomplishes anything.
2006 Outback Bowl: Florida vs Iowa
https://youtu.be/qBroOeFWlN8
Also SunBelt refs.
There's actually a big difference between expected wins and chance to win the MNC. You have to look at the distributions under them. Looking at a group of games for Michigan (PSU/Wisconsin/Illinois) if Michigan can win 1, then they can likely win them all, and only OSU would be a large threat. If Michigan loses to one of those teams, they are likely to lose to all 3.
Based on the Vegas odds and win expectancies, I'd wager it's highly likely Michigan's distribution curve has "mini-peaks" around 5 win and 11 wins. This is not the say the odds or 5 wins are the same as the odds of 11, but that Michigan is more likely to win 11 than 10, or 5 than 6/7 than a normal distribution would suggest.
In normal words, if I have a 10% chance to win $15, and a 90% chance to win $5, my expected return is $6. If I have a 50% chance to win $5 and a 50% chance to win $7 my expected return is also $6. However, it's pretty clear that the upside is higher in the first set of outcomes.
I wouldn't call them suckers bets Bryan. It's in Vegas' best interest to set lines/expectencies right on the dot. They want the same amound of money on both sides of the deal (in the case of odds to win MNC they want money according to the odds). Everything in Vegas is set to give the house a very small take from a ton of transactions. In aggregate, you're not really betting against the house in sports betting, you're betting against the people on the other side of the line, and Vegas takes a 1-2% skim for enabling the transaction.
From Marlon Brown's Article:
""Besides tradition, Brown says the most important decision factor is going to be the coaches. "I just want to play for great coaches. I don't care about their coaching style. For me..."
And he lists NOTRE DAME. You missed a perfect shot at Weis E. Coyote.
What the weak dollar types in the Fed have demonstrated is that we will devalue our currency and act as a backstop at the slightest hint of danger -- $29B of loan guarantees to JP Morgan to acquire Bear Stearns.
I stopped reading there, but if you think Bear Sterns about to shut down is only the "slightest hint of danger" then you are out of your mind.
" It is also my belief that access to govt. capital is much more likely then a full-scale bailout" Agreed. Paulson has already said that a bailout would fly in the face of how the system is supposed to work.
I really don't care either way. I was just stating he tried to kill that art program after the "pissing christ" thing. Believe me, I have no problem with offensive, have you read my posts? I purposely attack things I find retarded, and I know I offend people. However, I fail to see how anyone can find art in human excrement on a religious symbol. I disagree wtih the perversion of Islam (terrorists lol), but I wouldn't consider someone shitting on the Koran [sic for American spelling] art.
BlueSeoul, I don't know why you think I'm arguing against you. That was probably my most impartial comment of the past year. 20% of people having no religious affiliation doesn't mean they are offended by Christ, btw. It's possible to have no religious affiliation and still believe in god (deists), or to take the best tenets of each faith. Jesse Helms was a total asshole, but that doesn't mean EVERYTHING he stood for was wrong. I don't think everything is binary; I like to pick the best parts from everything. The biggest problem today is that people don't think for themselves, they align with a group. Turns out, a person can be against abortion and agree with other "Democratic" principles. A person can also be for universal health care and still agree with the Iraq War and vote McCain. The moment you limit yourself to an all or nothing scenario is the moment you become a mindless drone full of fail.
Just because the media blows something up does not mean it's actually a big deal. Seems to me like Bill Martin and MSC had their fingers right on the pulse of the situation.
Also, find me more than ONE example of an athlete pleading guilty. And then make sure all of those are the initial pleas. I'm sure an actual lawyer can explain this better, but initial pleas upon arraignment are not necessarily set in stone.
Edit: I just looked. Britton was arrested initially in February. He just pleaded on July 7th. Therefore, he evaluated his option for 5 months before pleading. Grady has had like a week. Goddamn dude, employ some critical thought and effort before you start typing next time.
2002 Washington - Brabbs's game-winning field goal.
My first Michigan game (in person) ever. 4 days before freshman classes started. Hell of a welcome to UM.
His Sparq rating was outrageous. Sad to hear about Grady though. He's been through 2 knee blowouts. I hope if he's done it's on his own terms, not as a sacrifice to the press. He holds a special place in my heart for breaking a long run in the Minnesota debacle in 2005, but instead of cutting around the last defender and scoring, he just lowered his shoulder and hammered him in the open field around the 30 yard line, basically tackling himself. I think Michigan turned the ball over or didn't score somehow on that drive.
Edit: Actually that wasn't against Minnesota. Does anyone else know the run I'm referring to? I believe it was Grady, might have been Hart, but they broke into the open field, and bowled a guy over around the opponents 35-45 rather than cut back around a block. It drove me insane because we lost that game. I think it was a 20-30 yard run.
I like your post, but you also pulled another common human thing. You feel cleaner with Rich Rod than with Les Miles, but since this hypothesis (who would be cleaner at Michigan, Miles or RR) can never be tested, you're a default winner. I'm sure this isn't your intent, but there is a lot of "think, feel, pretty confident, while I don't know" in your post. As you start to defend something where you believe strongly in the outcome, but can't adequately define the steps, language becomes highly conditional and less secure.
Once a person moves away from facts they lose their footing because there is always someone that will "THINK" differently. Please don't take this as an attack. The post is excellent, and it becomes more effective when there isn't a dangling issue (Les Miles) for someone to latch onto and totally ignore the substantiveness of the rest of the post. Basically, and I learned this the hard way, the only way to win an argument over a group of idiots is to make it idiot proof.
"And still, it is my opinion, that it seems flimsy to me, even if this is the standard procedure to lower your sentencing. "
Wait, are you arguing he should NOT be trying to lower his sentence (it will be probation and community service anyway)? If you have two choices, say "guilty" and seal off your options, or say "not guilty" and retain your options plus the outcomes are better on average (may cost more, but that's why people do cost-benefit and/or decision trees), you would choose to say "guilty"? Damn we need to remove people like you from being U of M fans.
It is not an instance of cognitive dissonance when the 2 ideas are not diametrically opposed (I can use big words too OMG). On one hand, Rosenberg isn't jumping to conclusions based on too few facts, he's blantantly ignoring what is actually happening to write a shitty article. This is just a pure lie:
"This whole thing could have, and should have, been settled long ago. But RichRod was determined to fight West Virginia all the way to the bitter end. Anybody who has even driven past a law school knew he had no case, but that didn't matter to Rodriguez. "
Michigan has top 5 law school. Bill Martin is a savvy businessman. RichRod had an agreement with Michigan to pay $1.5M of the buyout. RichRod was not determined to fight WVU all the way, UM was make a calculated effort that spending $200k on lawyers could result in reducing the buyout by more than $200k. This is what rational people do. They evaluate costs and benefits.
As to the other half, saying Brian is jumping to conclusions on the bama player, I point to Occam's Razor to explain it. Also the quote: "Asked by phone if Farmer had decided to transfer from Alabama, she replied, "Now that he would have to answer, but he doesn't want to speak right now."" is pretty fucking clear in its answer. Of course I can't be 100% sure, but fuck, I can't be 100% sure that the sun's going to rise tomorrow and I'll be alive, can I?
Just host off imageshack. Should be fine. My new banner code:
div.site-logo{
background-image: url("http://img55.imageshack.us/img55/9439/anthonytschernefq3.jpg") !important;
background-position: left top !important;
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If I knew I was around .08, I'd rather have a suspended license for a year than a DUI conviction. That said, I just don't drink and drive and completely avoid the issue. But you're right, there is no quick and dirty answer to whether to refuse or not. Things you want to avoid (obviously drinking and driving is #1):
1. Failing a field sobriety test on video.
2. Refusing BOTH breath and blood. That violates implied consent, but you can always offer to allow blood but refuse breath. If you're 30 minutes away from a station and know you're borderline, this could bail you out.
3. Don't drink and drive.
This isn't going to cost RR much overall, in taxes or otherwise. UM has enough exemptions and tax lawyers to take care of the situation as cheaply as possible.