I'VE HAD JUST ABOUT ENOUGH OF YOU SONNY
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|2 weeks 20 hours ago||How representative are the||
How representative are the videos posted? I see soft corners and lots of field pressure, which means Devin should be looking to the field hitch. They're open in at least 2 of the 4 vids after the jump. And the field pressure is tipped by the safety lining up directly over the nickel to the field.
...I'm definitely willing to bet that Devin is making a lot of bad reads, but I don't know how to divide responsibility between him and Borges. If NW is just running a lot of field pressures and DG refuses to recognize them, I think I'm willing to let Borges off the hook somewhat.
|4 weeks 19 hours ago||never change, Don.||
never change, Don.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||Oof/disheartening.||
|7 weeks 1 day ago||We actually ran the tunnel||
We actually ran the tunnel screen to Gallon against PSU, and to good effect. But it only came out once. And of course we didn't run the counter off that, which is the stalk-block-and-go. Only ran that one like once or twice all last season even after teams finally started cheating on that screen.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||Which reminds me, interesting||
Which reminds me, interesting question: DeBord or Borges? Still Borges, right? But this is definitely reminiscent of some of the worst sins of the '07 offense. Which, iirc, we fixed by going spread no huddle against Florida in the Cap1. Sigh.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||Just to add to the inanity of||
Just to add to the inanity of Borges' stubbornness, Michigan had smoke checks in Lloyd's offense. And bubble screens. Or, at least they did under Malone. Pretty sure even DeBord had them. I think that kind of says it all.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||What's the point? Other than||
What's the point? Other than registering the discontent with the situation, I can't think of any. And since everyone is already obviously pissed, there's really nothing that can be done. Either Hoke will get it together and can at least Borges (possibly Funk too) or he won't. Huge test of the direction of the program forthcoming.
|8 weeks 1 day ago||4th and 4: 11 Personnel, TE||
4th and 4: 11 Personnel, TE Trips to field.
-Penn State goes Nickel w/ split safeties. Henne looks to field since #1 to boundary has safety plus corner. TE flat plus double slants to field. Penn State is maybe in Quarters? In any case, Manningham is #1 and singled up w/ no help given #2 inside. CB gives up position. Game: blouses.
|8 weeks 1 day ago||I bet if you went back to the||
I bet if you went back to the tape there would (maybe) be only one sense in which that's true. At least since he's been here, his coverages have been fairly simple. He'll run basically anything with his front 7, but like 90% of the back end will be C1/2/3. And of that, C3 is probably a significant plurality if not majority.
But like GM says, it's a matter of trade offs. If you want to get exotic on the back end, your guys better be able to execute. The SC bowl game and the infamous Marvin Robinson-to-deep-center incidents suggest that his guys just aren't there yet. The stuff that he'd like to run requires some really athletes and technicians. It's less true on the line where all they need to do is fill a gap (more or less...oversimplification is fun). But the risk of a blown stunt is a handful of yards. It's a TD in the secondary. And that's what Mattison means by caring about points. He knows where he can afford to experiment.
|12 weeks 23 hours ago||He's Gary Moeller 2.0. Minus||
He's Gary Moeller 2.0. Minus certain of Gary's less good things.
|12 weeks 6 days ago||we should have used this post||
we should have used this post as our throwback uniformz
|12 weeks 6 days ago||he also UFR'd '05-'07, which||
he also UFR'd '05-'07, which provides a nice middle ground: NFL level talent, less than stellar scheme/coaching.
|12 weeks 6 days ago||never ever leave me.||
never ever leave me.
|12 weeks 6 days ago||Re: coach types, yes please.||
Re: coach types, yes please. Very confusing. Some kind of weird twist? Fire zone? It was to the boundary and Mattison loves dropping ends into the boundary, so there's that.
|12 weeks 6 days ago||I think they went with the||
I think they went with the devil they knew? ND commits to running the ball and they do it pretty well. And they only averaged 17 completions per game last year. That meant a lot of C4 to deal w/ those zone runs. Turns out Daniels is a baller. Pretty useful info. Glad we're playing them second week and not the first.
|12 weeks 6 days ago||I'm pretty sure that first||
I'm pretty sure that first picture pages was C4 not C1. They ran a version of Mills to the boundary while the slot to the field ran to the flat. Field safety leaves the slot and looks to number 1. Boundary safety sucks up on TE, CB has 1v1 on post w/ outside leverage. Good playcall, but BCB was clearly overmatched by Daniels. The second TD iirc was a post-corner also against C4 that threatened the exact same play, the CB freaked out and Daniels was in easily.
|13 weeks 6 days ago||a bunch of 18 year old drunk||
a bunch of 18 year old drunk stoners tripped at the five yard line, so i'm guessing you need at least intermediate level parkour and some Japanese heritage to actually get away.
|14 weeks 2 days ago||Yeah I know it's accounted||
Yeah I know it's accounted for in my response. The defense accounts for threats. The single high safety is the QB's counterpart and isn't part of the run fit. There's no actually additional personnel. The spread wins because it makes it harder to play run/pass, not because it makes just running easier. That's what I meant by MSU/Bama. They play a ton of split safety, both of which are in the run fit.
|14 weeks 2 days ago||Is the game played 11 on 11||
Is the game played 11 on 11 or not? How did Denard acquire an "extra" blocker? Did this "purist" watch Michigan State or Alabama play defense ever? The days of playing 1-high against a running QB are pretty much toast. But even if you want to, there are defenses that still make the numbers work (two gap or 2G1G schemes for instance).
Not to mention the "yeah but scheme" argument is one that forgets what kind of offense Bo ran and against whom. How many scholarships were available to Bo in 1973? The greater necessity of scheme in the first place comes from the fact that talent differences are less massive. And if you watched '11 and '12, you saw plenty of square peg/round hole problems. Not to mention the injury. So the schematic advantage he had across his 3 full seasons was relatively limited.
He still ran for 7 yards a pop in 2013, despite the total dysfunction of the offensive line and many of the RBs. That wasn't scheme. That was ludicrous talent with the ball in his hand.
Oh, also: sack yardage? Pretty sure that's counted against a QB total, but not RBs. There's even a plausible argument that says at least some sack yardage should be counted against RBs, since the effectiveness of the run game plays into the effectiveness of play action and other aspects of the passing game as a function of alignment/personnel responses to effective rushing.
|14 weeks 3 days ago||Stribling!||
|14 weeks 3 days ago||FOOOOOOTBAAAAAWWWWWWWWWW||
|14 weeks 3 days ago||championship level comment.||
championship level comment. or so i assume, because i have no idea what a quantitatively good comment looks like.
|14 weeks 6 days ago||I don't suppose you could run||
I don't suppose you could run year to year correlations between teams? I.e. how much better would your model get adding some number of previous years weighted for recency? Obviously this won't make Michigan look any better, but the question of the marginal value of knowing what happened, say, 5 years ago seems interesting to me. Also: obviously this is great and you are a lunatic in the best sense of the word.
|20 weeks 1 day ago||Not that I really care||
Not that I really care considering how incredible watching that in person was, but the draft pick disparity in that game was almost totally overcome by Stanton and Herrmann. And yet the latter was still better than Ron English.
We went like 10 years without really legitimate competent defensive coaching. And we still haven't changed the scheme. Herrmann was as much a 4-3 under guy as Mattison is. I.e. technique/fundamentals really do matter that much.
|21 weeks 10 hours ago||it might just be me, but i||
it might just be me, but i can't actually see any of the illustrations. might have to rework the html.
|22 weeks 1 day ago||Irvin is ~25th in his own||
Irvin is ~25th in his own class. That doesn't scream lottery. But yeah, Michigan has probably 4-5 future draft picks. Small sample size on Beilein's PGs at M, but pretty good chance that Walton goes somewhere. Still better than State, as are a lot of teams on that list. I don't think Goodman's aware that recruiting sites exist. Or Draft Express.
|24 weeks 1 day ago||I'm guessing this was||
I'm guessing this was mentioned, but I didn't find it on a quick check. The running plays contain the sack numbers? Adding those and INTs back into the YPP average would be interesting. You can do INTs if you're so inclined. Places like Advanced NFL Stats and Prof Football Reference use -45 yds per INT. That's on average what they lose you/gain the opposition. That brings Al's YPP down to 6.2 or so.
Chris Brown did a whole thing about run/pass balance that I think is dead on:
Basically, I think you can weed out the bad play callers based on this principle. The best ones will be slightly run heavy because running down the clock is a legitimate strategy, but in general the YPC and YPP should be about equal. I'd bet that if those numbers were again adjusted for sacks it'd be clear that Borges was more or less theoretically optimal per CB.
|25 weeks 1 day ago||Too bad they're not allowed||
Too bad they're not allowed to actually bet money with each other. Not much to lose otherwise.
|25 weeks 6 days ago||6 point dogs at home to OSU?||
6 point dogs at home to OSU? ugh. that's gotta put them pretty much in the running for the NC game. gross. that RR attrition is such a big deal and it's really annoying. that costs us more than anything Tat Gate cost them.
|27 weeks 6 days ago||Anyone else think Speight||
Anyone else think Speight looked pretty mobile there? Surprising athleticism from a guy his size and (insert salt grains) recruit ranking.