colin

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Date	Title	Body
3 days 14 hours ago	Padmapper is a nice little	Padmapper is a nice little web app that takes craigslist ads and maps them onto google maps.  In the very least, it'll help you get some sense of what the market looks like.
1 week 14 hours ago	J Walter Weatherman: And	J Walter Weatherman: And that's why you always write rap songs heavily featuring your own name.
2 weeks 3 days ago	It's not that hard to get to	It's not that hard to get to 7-5.  Team is basically the same, but minus half a season of Denard and Jake.  That said, I'd be surprised if the rest of the B1G has enough talent to actually capitalize on our weakness.  We'll be at a talent deficit against ND and OSU.  That's about it no? 8-4 sounds right to me.
2 weeks 3 days ago	Sounds like you're very well	Sounds like you're very well read and extremely open minded.
2 weeks 5 days ago	Obviously his brother being	Obviously his brother being here helps make the decision to visit, but he's visited here twice as much as ND and we offered well before they did.  That doesn't really scream "slight ND lean".  Regardless of what the 247 guys say, visits are usually pretty telling.
2 weeks 5 days ago	Just to add some more	Just to add some more context, 247's composite ranking has Irvin at 29, Walton at 47 and Donnal at 88.  Supposedly it was updated today, but I have no idea if the update actually includes the new ESPN rankings.  It shouldn't matter too much.  Past Beilein recruits: GRIII finished 17, McGary 28, Stauskas 82, Brundidge 87, Trey 93.  Aaaand that's as far back as 247 goes because they hate backdating. But between Scout, Rivals and ESPN, Smotrycz averaged 80. D-Mo was 77 to Rivals, 100 to ESPN and the 20th best PG to Scout. Vogrich was 100 to Scout, 131 to Rivals and the 40th best SG to ESPN. Obviously the trajectory is pretty good.  Also helps to see that Beilein does have some misses (Vogrich and Brundidge) but everyone else contributed as a freshman and at least showed flashes of things to come.
3 weeks 4 hours ago	ugh.	ugh.
3 weeks 9 hours ago	it was awful for forever?	it was awful for forever? it's good now though.
3 weeks 10 hours ago	Given his FB velo, that's	Given his FB velo, that's most likely a curve.  Having a faster and slower curve is common-ish.
3 weeks 5 days ago	And given the number of punts	And given the number of punts per game, switching from an old-style to a spread punt is worth something like 1-2 points in expectation per game? 8-12 possessions, so, 4-8 punts per game? Maybe only 1 point in expecation?
4 weeks 5 days ago	How about ordering	How about ordering in likelihood of committing, including Ways? Ways, Williams, Scott, Holmes, Andrews?
6 weeks 3 days ago	I've heard that next year's	I've heard that next year's class is supposed to be amazing?  I kind of just assumed that would somehow convince Craft to go? But yeah he'd be really selling low on himself.  He just had his worst season shooting from 3.  That's got to have him thinking he can do better.   And he's a much better NBA value if he suddenly develops a serious 3pt threat.  OSU could have been #1 this year if Craft can shoot, imo.  So yeah, fair enough. I don't have anything really to say about Ferrell.  I barely noticed the guy.  He was what, the 5th option on the floor?  But yeah there's not a whole lot to like in his numbers.  I don't know how his ORtg is that good, because his TO% sucks and his shooting was pretty meh.  But scouts seem to like him. Overall, I like your tiers.  I think you're underrating OSU a bit though.   I'd put them with Iowa/Wisconsin. The more I watched Thomas, the more I noticed how little he tried on defense.  He gave back a lot of his points.  I think Ross and Thompson will replace a lot of his production even if it looks even uglier than it did this year. Craft will regress to his mean and there will be talk about how he's better than he's ever been even though he'll be shooting at his career averages. I think it'll mostly come down to how much they cough it up. You're probably right to like Purdue.  This was Painter's worst team since his first in '06.
6 weeks 4 days ago	Here's DX's most recent top	Here's DX's most recent top 100 freshmen update, which was last week.  Take whatsoever grains of salt you wish: http://www.draftexpress.com/rankings/NCAA-Freshmen/ 9. Glenn Robinson 41. Mitch McGary 47. Nik Stauskas   Others of note: 14. Gary Harris (State) 30. Yogi Ferrell (Indiana) 31. Sam Dekker (Wisconsin) 51. Adam Woodbury (Iowa) 65. Jake Layman (Maryland) 71. Jeremy Hollowell (Indiana) 78. Shaquille Cleare (Maryland) 84. Hanner Perea (Indiana) 90. Amadeo Della Valle (Ohio)   Looking at the sophs likely to return, OSU has a big class with a lot of talent that hasn't quite put it together (Williams, Scott, Ross, Thompson) but the B1G is otherwise pretty empty on that front.  Presumably Craft and Thomas are gone (2nd rounders, iirc, per DX), but if not they'll have their entire team back plus a year of experience.  Iowa is a pretty good sleeper pick if Marble and Basabe come back.  White, Woodbury plus those two give them a nice core.   For State, a lot depends on what Payne and Harris do.  I'd guess they'll come back, but who knows.  If they do, they'll be very good. Replacing Nix isn't that big a deal.  Not landing Parker was though.  Parker, Harris and Payne likely would've made them B1G favorites. Indiana will have a lot of talent, much of it being asked to handle far greater usage.  I'd guess they'll be fine given the pedigree, but there's some variance there.   M is basically in the same boat.  We (hopefully) lose one fewer lottery pick, but no Vonleh in the incoming class.  If GRIII stays, the talent level will once again be very high but we'll also be once again dependent on young guys.  It would be nice if THJr came back, obvs, but especially because he could help offset the youth at PG. Wisconsin will presumably be Wisconsin.  Goddamnit. Still lotta ins, lotta outs given the draft, but the contenders look like they'll be able to stay on top.  Iowa might be able to force its way into the conversation. Purdue could give it a go if Hammons really breaks out, but who else is going to score on that team? Minnesota loses its two best players.  IL hasn't recovered from Weber yet, but supposedly are in the running for Drew Crawford.  NW, PSU and Nebraska are bad. Picking from the favorites is a real slog because everyone has question marks even if everyone likely to come back actually does.
7 weeks 12 hours ago	Actually Syracuse does	Actually Syracuse does remarkably well at defending 3P%.  KenPom has forwarded the idea that teams actually can't control opponents' 3P%, they just control how many they put up.  That's because year to year, the vast majority of teams don't see any correlation between 3P%.  Syracuse, surprisingly for a 2-3 zone team, appears to.  They make you take a lot of 3's and they apparently do a great job contesting them.  Best guess? It's related to their height around the perimeter.
7 weeks 5 days ago	I didn't say anything about	I didn't say anything about play calling, I said play design.  They consistently had trouble throughout the season executing runs that weren't inverted veer.  Whatever you think of the play calling, lack of execution consistently put us in trouble throughout the season. Meanwhile, there's no hint from this article that he's learned anything new.  Just that he is doing what he always does, which is look over what good offenses have done and how they were successful.
7 weeks 5 days ago	"Borges, who does a forensic	"Borges, who does a forensic study each offseason of the top offenses in the nation in an attempt to discover why those offenses worked, has a much greater understanding of the allure of the spread option after working with Robinson for two years. The offense can always scheme to overload the defense on the play side, overwhelming with superior numbers. Still, it has one major drawback. “There is a case for spread offense. Because it looks so good on the board,” Borges said. “There are no runs that look bad."" Not that it wasn't evident in the play design, but this is good to hear. Further evidence that Borges definitely gets X's and O's. Execution was the problem last year and that's obviously the other half of it. But there are plenty of B1G coordinators who seem to struggle with both. So cheers to that.
12 weeks 5 days ago	Have you found any papers	Have you found any papers that looked at natural experiments in this arena?  There are probably a decent number but my brief googling has turned up nothing so far, which I thought was weird.
12 weeks 5 days ago	I just tracked down	I just tracked down this: http://andrewgelman.com/2008/12/congressional_r/ Even considering this study doesn't (per Gelman...I'm not familiar enough with the statistical techniques in question to know) establish causality, it certainly seems plausible that Congress can do quite a lot to negotiate the specifics of NIH funding given the following: "In the House Appropriations Committee (HAC), the NIH budget request is handled by the Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education and Related Agencies Subcommittee (LHHE). A similarly named subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee (SAC) evaluates the NIH budget request in that chamber. The LHHE subcommittees consider the NIH budget request, amend the funding requests in the presidential budget, and “mark up” the appropriations bills, sometimes specifically for institutes and centers at the NIH, that are ultimately reported to the House and Senate by each chamber's appropriations committee. The subcommittee meeting reports that accompany the appropriations bills to the floor contain additional detail and guidance on the allocation and disbursement of appropriated funds by the NIH. Transfers affecting the level of support may involve (i) reallocation for NIH funding among the agency's institutes and centers, (ii) subcommittee support for specific fields of biomedical research associated with particular diseases, and (iii) project-level transfers that reallocate funding among particular lines of research and/or research projects within a given disease field. (See Supporting Online Material for examples)." Just as a matter of agenda setting, it would seem Congress and assorted lobbies have the power to do what MJ suggests they can on an order of meaningful magnitude.  Again, that's far from establishing causality, but I would like to be convinced both that it can't and that it doesn't.  Assuming this mechanism is viable, I think the incentives for a given congressperson are clear.
12 weeks 5 days ago	Does it perhaps make a little	Does it perhaps make a little more sense to divide funds apportioned to a given state for research on some kind of merit basis? The way you have it is that Pitt doesn't add anything because we have PSU, right? But presumably PSU and Pitt split that money along some lines. It also seems to indicate that if we took Duke we'd be less likely to take UNC? Anyway, if I had to guess, the total is more or less determined by research status but the marginal dollar goes to the more politically connected district of the two. Do I have that right and would altering your formula along those lines change much?
14 weeks 4 days ago	It's worth mentioning that	It's worth mentioning that the NFL's struggles were at least in some part related to the fact that they simply haven't seen much spread to run stuff.  College defenses (like Narduzzi's, for instance) are clearly designed around the idea that the QB will be a run threat.  They know that traditional pass-only defenders need to be involved in the run.  While I'm sure plenty of NFL guys know it too, the number of times when teams just flat out screwed up their numbers just doesn't happen in college these days.  The scheme is too old.  Relatedly, I saw a great screen shot of the Bears lining up against one of the spread teams this year in obvious C2 (turned out to be C2 man, at that) against a 4 wide set.  That left 5 in the box against 7 for the offense.  Guess how well that turned out.  I don't watch the NFL that much but I bet if I went back to the All-22 and checked out the numbers on a lot of defenses that they lost the battle well before the snap.
14 weeks 4 days ago	Given the incentive structure	Given the incentive structure you laid out, why wouldn't cheating be rampant? Isn't that a pretty weird belief? Also: there's another party to add to the interested in seeing Phil and friends get busted. Namely, any non-cheating rivals have a very significant incentive to at least work through back channels in bringing this kind of thing to light. But I imagine they would have to be extremely secretive because there's very likely a lot of anti-snitching codes in place throughout the game. ADs are hamstrung by this, but boosters probably could devote some time/money to it. It doesn't have to be just Yahoo that funds Charles Robinson.
15 weeks 20 min ago	So M has two of the top	So M has two of the top couple players in the league but won't even be above average?  How bad are the rest of our guys?  No offense meant, I just assumed we were average-ish top to bottom for whatever reason.
15 weeks 13 hours ago	I'm guessing it means there's	I'm guessing it means there's a decent chance that Jourdan Lewis pulls a Reverse Zion Babb.
15 weeks 22 hours ago	That is something that may	That is something that may well be generally true, but a lot of the research that has gone on in biomechanical research in kines labs and the like is starting to be incorporated usefully into training regimens.  Given access to that kind of thing, athletic guys with quarterback stature and a feel for throwing are candidates for velocity gains.   Not saying Borges is that sort of guy, but I would imagine that as the throwing programs that are starting to proliferate in baseball trickle into football that the pool for quarterbacks will grow.
15 weeks 4 days ago	Cool it! You're on third	Cool it! You're on third street!
15 weeks 6 days ago	The fact that most interested	The fact that most interested parties are willing to spend more money to go see a school play, buy a jersey, etc. when a school is better relative to when a school is worse and the substantial portion of extremely wealthy boosters who do so with things like massive donations for facilities and the like suggests that people are willing to pay some amount for increased performance. Better recruits are a pretty obvious means of getting better performance, so all that matters is the perceived legality/morality/consequences of doing so.  If NCAA enforcement is lax,  consequences are obviously out of the picture.  I don't think it's illegal to give money to somebody, but maybe I'm wrong there.  So all that's left is morality.  And most fans think that players should be paid at least something these days.   On top of that, all that's left is whether or not it's okay to privilege your team over another.  Say what you will about whichever programs, but when I think of win-at-all-costs programs, I think of SEC programs (and perhaps certain others). In any case, the incentives are all there.  It's just a matter of if people give in to temptation, if they even consider it to be sinful. That said, you do have an interesting point.  Why don't schools explicitly fund investigators to out their rivals?  Explicit funding is probably seen as gauche, but there's probably a decent amount of under-the-table tipping off of reporters and the like.  I would bet that's basically what happened in the old SWC, not to mention some of the Bama-Auburn stuff. But for example, OSU is awfully well shielded from that kind of thing.  None of the local rags are going to sell more papers doing that kind of muckraking and they might just get Herbstreited for it.  The whole state, more or less, is in favor of one outcome.  So Clarett gets railroaded for speaking up (and he only does so after he exhausts the generosity of Ohioans) and everything else gets swept under the rug.  On the other hand, when you have multiple factions relatively nearby, the payoffs are either rooted out or  have to pass intense scrutiny such that it becomes so highly organized that it is effectively institutionalized.  That more or less matches that 30 for 30 Pony Express doc, right? I won't necessarily stand behind everything I just laid out and I don't know if it will stand up to scrutiny.  But I think it at least hangs together and it reflects what I've picked up reading about college football over the last decade.  The topic really does need some serious research to actually figure out the systematic principles behind college football economics.
18 weeks 2 days ago	Actually El Paso iirc is the	Actually El Paso iirc is the safest city in the country.
18 weeks 3 days ago	Depends what you're	Depends what you're interested in.  It's easy living for all the obvious reasons, but it lacks the breadth and depth of culture in big American cultural centers.  Their best high end restauranteurs, for instance, ditch the place for a more vibrant scene once they prove they can run a shop ably.  The same is true for music, comedy, etc.  It would be less of an issue if SD were farther away from the gravitational pull of LA. You really have to prefer the said obvious stuff to culture to want to pass up LA or SF for SD, hence the state of affairs. Why this is not true of the beer I have no idea.  It is fantastic.  It's also probably a significant part of the reason why SD is starting to come into its own as a "real" city, culture-wise. Also, yes, this is for a given definition of culture.  Pacific beach bros certainly have their own collective culture that they find very satisfying.
18 weeks 5 days ago	Having watched those teams up	Having watched those teams up close, they played their asses off to my eye.  They didn't lack for heart and defended the hell out of Yost and each other.  Goaltending was their big issue and iirc Brian and others talked about how Montoya didn't seem to want to be there for his final season.  Sauer obviously never really figured it out. That said, I was a novice watching those games and I'm still no expert.
18 weeks 6 days ago	(No subject)	Accompaniment opportunity missed: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wbq3axLwamE     ...fucking embed

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