Yeah, Rooths seems like a longshot but this team has already changed its construction so much in the past week that a guy like him might be encouraged that it wouldn't be a wasted year to come play for May and possibly even make the tourney. Georgia and FSU, two other teams he's been linked to recently, aren't particularly inspiring on that front.
Yeah, it was a different time and while I still think a new coach deserves time and grace to rebuild a team (similarly, I'm not judging Moore harshly if UM, relatively speaking, struggles this season), the portal definitely allows good coaches with a solid system/outlook put a proof-of-concept team out there in year 1.
I'm still tempering expectations but rebuilding a roster with a portal sure seems easier than Beilein had to do early on. May seemingly has a plan here and it looks good.
Yeah, it's more that I read he was likely signing for a couple of days now. Definitely true that breaking into that top 100 has been tougher than you'd expect for a defending national champion and a team with a recent run like UM has had for 3 years now.
Ah yes, because apparently "hate" is pointing out that a guy who was a sub-50% passer in HS and who hasn't shown much ability throwing the ball at UM is going to flourish in year 1 with a completely new offensive system that the staff would have to install that is markedly different than the one they used to win a national title and go something like 30-3 the past 3 seasons.
Your opinion is different than mine, and that's fair. Nothing we say here actually matters; none of us will put even the slightest pressure on Moore and co. to pick a QB. But saying "if they don't pick Orji they've conceded a year and will, at best, finish 9-3 without any meaningful accomplishments" I feel it's within the Message Board By-Laws of the Internet to push back with tangible examples of how, in fact, this team has won quite a bit with more limited QBs than the guy with questionable accuracy but a ton of raw ability.
The depth chart just looks more balanced right now than it did toward the end under Howard, and that's a nice sign of optimism. Again, there will be bumps along the way but this looks like a competitive team in this conference as it stands.
Run an option offense with Orji and a chance to repeat as B1G champions, with an equal chance of going 6-6 if Orji goes down.
This feels like a massive projection based on virtually no actual evidence. The "option offense" assumes Orji can run that complex system of reads well, all the backs figure out how to master those same intricacies, and the offensive line and TEs who were recruited and coached in one way of blocking seamlessly migrate to a different one with a first-time HC and OC who, AFAIK, haven't run it before.
On the other hand, Cade McNamara couldn't do anything at an elite level, and to some here was the worst possible QB UM has seen in forever, and won a conference crown and went to the playoffs. So yeah, if they can get a Cade-level performance out of the QB spot then we have evidence of that working out pretty well.
Jalen Milroe was a top-100 player in his class and was an accurate-ish HS passer (60% for his career) while Orji was a 3* kid who completed under 50% of his passes throughout HS, and even if you throw out his first year as a starter he only completed 51% of his passes as an upperclassman. That's got Joe Milton stink on it, and while some people seemingly enjoyed that experienced it got old for me pretty quickly. And Milroe just finished a season where he threw for 10 ypa at 66%, 23 TDs and 6 picks and had elite WRs he was throwing to. Orji isn't anywhere close to that or has that type of WR talent on the team.
Listen, Orji is a top-level athlete and I can see the glimmers of ability there if he can put the passing part of it all together. But he's also been on campus for 3 years now and still looks limited, and at some point you've got a ticking clock on how much realistic time you'd get out of him before eligibility ran out. I suspect they'll give him a shot and create a sub-package for him but him as the team's starting QB has a realistic ceiling that is way lower than some are willing to admit unless we just assume he's been sandbagging for years and is in fact a top-level defense reader and accurate thrower.
I just don't quite get the Orji love as a starting QB. Maybe he figures it all out but he's entering his third year on campus and is going to be 21 midway through the season. He's got some ability but if you switch the offense completely around to cater to his strengths (running, athleticism) then you're (a) limiting your upside elsewhere with the other QBs on the roster for this season, and (b) signalling that you should probably start recruiting QBs like him going forward because otherwise you're just going to be flipping around your offense in a year or two once he's not the starter and, I don't know, Davis is your preferred starter. There's some overlap in terms of skillsets there but that's still a different style of QB (the Jalen Milroe-type guy who was a bruiser but could also throw decently if unrefined) versus what UM liked to get under Harbaugh (the JJ type who was really accurate as a passer and had enough athleticism to be a weapon with the ball in his hands). OSU under Urban Meyer made the decision to go away from the JT types to the Haskins/Stroud types and didn't look back, and thats the type of buy-in Moore would similarly need to make. He may very well do so, but that's the choice you'd need to make.
Also, the Rich Rod offense we all remember isn't really the one you'd love to run in 2024 football IMO. He runs it at places like Jax St. because it works with the talent he's got available to him and the relative competition (the CUSA is pretty mediocre outside of Liberty, which is itself sort of a mediocre program that just outspends the other schools). But there was an article I read a couple years ago where they asked coaches what part of "dual threat" they liked more in their QBs and all said arm talent and accuracy. Most guys can move enough now that they aren't John Navarre types back there, and you can scheme a couple of runs a game for QBs if you need them. But guys like Milroe, Daniels, Lamar Jackson in the NFL as well as college, etc. work because they are decent passers and can make teams pay even when they don't bite on the run, and I'm not seeing that with Orji yet. Warren is closer to that type of QB, and if the rumors about his injuries last year are true then he's the better option, along with Tuttle, for this season with Orji coming in as a package asset until/if he becomes a more complete passer.
As for the basketball roster discussion, I'm not sold they're a top-4 in the conference type of team but they have a floor that is .500 in the conference and a bubble contender. That's a reasonable expectation given the fact we're still talking about a lot of transfers and most of the guys needing to learn a new offensive and defensive system.
I won't pile on too much but this happens every year and people freak out. WF, Syracuse, and Texas Tech are all ranked in the top 12 mostly on volume. It's a largely new staff with a first time HC. Give them some time. Also, Harbaugh leaving when he did and taking the guys he did doubly didn't help.
To be fair, Jace was a walk-on in 2020 until they missed on Todd and Christopher and there was a scholarship spot open for him. And he's been on scholarship for 4 years, so going in as a walk-on with his dad gone wouldn't be crazy.
I agree about Cason but guys also realize that with May that's more likely going to have playing time for guards and if you think you're better than GW3 and Brooks now why not role the dice?
Yeah, I sort of assumed Burnett was sticking around. Maybe he jumps to the portal but I thought he was a grad transfer anyway from Alabama so that shouldn't be a hindrance.
Davis seems like a guy who's going to take time to figure it out so yeah, skip him for now and if he comes back to the fold that's great. UM can shake some money for him if they can/want to. Gayle seems like a lock and Goldin, you hope, joins soon. That's a solid roster if they all do plus a chance for 1-2 more development/multi-year guys.
I said it in another thread but this team looks like a bubble one and an average B1G team if the roster above largely sticks. It's not going to blow anyone away but I think last year warped a lot of people's understanding of this conference and CBB generally. They aren't going to the Sweet 16 or anything but with the portal you can piece together a solid team early on and then hope to hit on same late bloomers like Pippen on the recruiting trail.
I'm less optimistic about Rooths coming but if they can get a PF that would be nice. Rooths would be a nicer offense and defense combo than you probably are getting from the portal, but maybe the tide changes there.
Yeah, he's a two-way player in the way Smith couldn't be as much simply because of size and athleticism but P5 PGs with starter experience are hard to come by, even though Smith had the advantage of being a senior with experience being the offensive centerpiece at Columbia.
The physicality feels like it'll be a departure from what UM has had at PG basically since Simpson; Donaldson is 6' 3" and 200lbs. For comparison, GW III is 6'2" but 170, Dug was (charitably) listed at 5' 11" and 175 lbs, and Llewellyn was 6' 2" and 190lbs. DeVante' was the only PG they've had around 200 lbs but he was 6' 1" and lacked the overall athleticism.
If he's an average PG in this conference that would be really nice, especially since May wants to play at least 3 guards who are pretty switchable and can shoot.
I was excited about him because he's been a PG at a major-conference team and has good measurables and decent overall offensive numbers. Auburn basically had two platoons of players they'd roll out so his per-game numbers were depressed but are solid extrapolated over a starter's minutes. He's prone to turn the ball over more than you'd like, but he's also a 28% assist rate so it seems like he's a bit of a gambler. Not perfect but that might also be a by-product of Auburn's offensive system; I looked back at their other PGs over the years and all have somewhat elevated TO rates.
The shooting potential is there and so is the athleticism/size; he won't be Dug in that guys can just muscle him around. I don't think he's going to be a a dominant lead guard but the floor with him feels higher than Dug's, who had some amazing offensive performances but was a bad defender and could be bullied by larger defenders. He's also a multi-year player so there's room to grow and build around him a bit as an upperclassmen instead of a 1-year rental (unless he just blows up).
So again, really nice pick-up and the team is starting to look a bit more coherent and balanced.
So me saying "the floor is 10-10" is outrageous to you (apparently that also means Sweet 16 as well but, hey, speak your truth king) while you saying "the floor is 8-12" is sobering, thoughtful basketball analysis. Thanks for your insightful contributions to this discussion.
I'm not here to kink shame but you seem like you're going thru something right now.
Also, you seem to really hate following this basketball team so feel free to not snipe through every comment and neg people you disagree with and just...not comment.
I agree that Warren has done this before in the spring game but his rep was JJ-lite, so if he can reach that level (and there was talk he was nursing an injury last year, I believe, so that probably hurt him a bit) then that's a positive development. I'm not sold this isn't just spring ball legend material but I just don't think Orji is quite there yet and so a Warren/Orji/Tuttle competition that's actually got options would be nice.
I thought the receivers looked fine but they don't have a Wilson type who can just burn defenders, and so we'll see how they handle that schematically.
RBs looked good, but that's not a huge surprise.
Defenses are always hard to read in games like this but, yeah, CB2 not being roasted by a walk-on is a big positive.
I remain interested to see if/when they get Tuttle what he can do. He's a middling P5 QB but that's a better track record than anyone else on the roster.
I do agree that Orji still seems limited. I know the refrain is you can just run the read option with him but it's not 2008 anymore; good teams have figured out how to defend that if your QB can't throw the ball and until proven otherwise Orji hasn't shown he can make guys pay with his arm.
Next year's league just isn't that strong IMO so .500 feels pretty doable. Right now we don't really know what Purdue looks without Edey; it's probably solid but you don't lose a 2-time NPOY and just keep chugging along, and as we saw in the national title game the drop-off from Edey to everyone else on that roster is pretty steep. MSU similarly turns over a bunch of guys from a mediocre team, and I feel like Izzo is fading as an effective coach overall. Wisconsin had a surprising run but then lost Storr and Hepburn and I still think Gard is a bit of a weird coach who, for example, nearly lost the lockerroom a couple seasons ago. Illinois without Shannon is another unknown, though they'll be competitive. NW just had their peak roster year so we'll see how they look next season, and Iowa was just...Iowa. Rutgers has some talent coming in but they weren't great last year despite playing a terrible non-conference schedule. Maryland is up in the air and will have a lot of roster turnover. OSU was basically as bad as UM last season until the coaching change, at which point they started to shoot the ball much better from outside but we'll have to see if that's sustainable or just a hot streak. And then you've got the 4 new teams coming in but considering only Oregon got in last season and that was only because they won the conference auto-bid, not sure if that changes the calculus much. So it feels like a tractable conference where 2-3 more transfers at the right spots gives you a decent floor in what is shaping up to be a mediocre conference.
As for the portal teams that are around .500, that seemingly is based on 2-3 teams. Like, St. John's took 9 guys but finished 21st per KenPom; they seemingly only missed the tourney because they lost to UM and/or they pissed off the wrong deity. If May can turn around a roster and return a top-25 team that's pretty damn good. WVU took 10 and were terrible but that was also a mess of a staff turnover that isn't close to the crater May stepped into at UM, as Howard isn't a drunk mess suing UM and being a raging asshole as well.
I also think people may be overreacting a bit to how awful last season was possibly to factors beyond raw talent on the court. Like, that team wasn't 8-and-whatever bad in terms of talent, just couldn't play a lick of defense and then had that insane Dug-is-sorta-suspended-so-we-only-play-one-PG-a-game situation that absolutely submarined winnable games. They've lost guys like Reed and Dug but I think Tschetter and Burnett are solid players who can be better with more/better coaching, and I think May has a plan to deal with the lack of SF depth he's likely to walk into. I'm actually less worried about guard depth now if a couple of the transfers show up. And if May gets 2-3 guys from FAU then it's even less of a continuity concern with transfers that you sometimes see; importing guys who know your system and are experienced is different than starting from scratch with different guys in a new system for them.
So yeah, I'm probably a bit optimistic but I also feel a bit like last year's team has some 2020 football vibes in that they were abjectly terrible but in ways that better coaching can mitigate reasonably quickly.
Yeah, the fact he's likely getting multi-year players from the portal is key because otherwise you'd just see a real year-2 drop off. So guys like Wolf and Goldin are nice pick-ups for depth and continuity.
Definitely. I do think playing UM's defense probably made the offense look a bit more limited than it will against a lot of the schedule, but I suspect they'll have to scheme more guys open this year than maybe the last 2 under McCarthy where he could muscle throws into windows.
Yeah. Tearing your UCL in your shoulder feels like the type of injury with wildly different recovery timelines based on each individual and the nature of the injury. But if he can bounce back then he's got a solid floor as a QB for this team.
I still think Tuttle will get a crack at starter because the floor with him seems to be semi-competent B1G QB, which can win you 9-10 games.
Also, 9-3 wouldn't be bad at all given this schedule. Hell, depending on which teams are the "9" and which are the "3" they might even sniff the playoffs.
From what I saw I think Tuttle is the starter with Orji competing for the spot as the year progresses, with Warren also being in the mix a bit. They're definitely going to lean on the running game but they are some pass-catchers on this roster and a QB who can make the smart, quick throw will do well.
Feels like the floor for this team is around .500 in the league and fighting on the bubble if they get 2-3 more transfers, which would be a really nice year 1. Wolf and Jones give them solid depth and May clearly has a plan.
Yeah, these violations were far more egregious than what UM did but Herm was also somewhat combative like Harbaugh was, which didn't help the Sun Devils. But this feels about right in terms of punishment.
Yeah, it's mostly the same guys with dipshit opinions about other teams turning their stupidity toward McCarthy. Like, Tom Fornelli said "I like Quinyon Mitchell and his tape but when was the last time a top-level corner came from the MAC?" but seemingly not applying the same logic to Sauce Gardner, another G5 corner who sure seemed like a capable first-round corner.
One of them loves Penix quite a bit for reasons I don't understand; we saw what happens when teams get pressure on him and it's the Michigan game, the ASU game, hell even Wazzou got after him a bit. He's going to be 24 when he takes his first NFL snap, which is 2 years younger than Lamar Jackson and a year younger than guys like Herbert, Jordan Love, Tua, etc. Bo Nix is even older. McCarthy, by comparison, would be 21 and has shown an ability to scramble and make plays out of the playcall and with (relatively) limited WRs.
McCarthy feels like the 3rd-best QB in this class unless you REALLY believe that Daniels can get away with everything he did at LSU in the NFL. No Kelly-coached QB has AFAIK, but I guess there's a first time for everything. I could even buy McCarthy as #2 if you're down on Williams, who I think has the widest variance of elite-to-headcase QB in this class. But none of the QBs in this class feel like sure things, and in an objective non-needs world I'd probably draft Harrison Jr. first and welcome a HOFer onto my team happily. But that's not the world we live in and if I'm, say, the Giants and I can get McCarthy to replace what is objectively a bad QB in Daniel Jones in a year or 2 I'd jump at it.
The drop-off from McCarthy is real but this team also made the playoffs with Cade McNamara, who I have been told by multiple people on this site and elsewhere was a terrible QB, and also won 10 games with the likes of Wilton Speight, John O'Korn, and sometime-UFL starter Shea Patterson at the helm. The drop from McCarthy to Tuttle/Orji/Warren/Davis/Denegal will be significant but I also think people are assuming the absolute worst possible outcome for the QB room instead of the most likely, which is that out of those 5 guys they get B+-level QB play against most teams. The difference is that none of them are going to bail them out against an elite defense, but there's only 3-4 of those on the docket and I'm a bit dubious on OU. Plus, they play most of their toughest games at home, which will help a less-talented offense.
The OP was saying UM is likely going 7-5 with an Iowa-level offense, while "a record closer to 7-5 than 12-0" could just as easily be 10-2/9-3. Nobody is acting like the offense won't take a step back but I think a lot of fans have this binary viewpoint of football that you're either a championship contender or a .500 squad and that's not true. Hell, Iowa went 10-4 last season with the most Iowa-ass offense possible, so even they weren't 7-5 bad.
Yeah, you're right. He didn't play a down this year so I was mostly going off the depth chart but per MGoBlue he's a scout team WR.
I still don't think moving Orji to WR makes any sense unless he's expressed an interest to do so or the staff feels that's his best spot, though given his size I'd be surprised if they'd put him there and not somewhere else.
Yeah, the fact he was in the 2020 class, which is the same one Hunter Dickinson, Terrance Williams, and Jace Howard was in, and he apparently doesn't have his degree yet is absolutely a "him" problem and not one for UM's admissions.
I've also come to realize that there is just a pat number of things to complain about around here that'll always get you upvotes even if they aren't remotely applicable. Admissions is one of them, and while sometimes they absolutely do make it harder for athletes to transfer into this school than elsewhere, this place also loves to act like a Michigan degree is some well-earned mark of superiority that much be treated with proper reverence.
Michigan's 2024-2025 season will not be saved by Davis coming or doomed by his absence.
Why would you convert Orji to WR? If he's not a QB then so be it but he's 6' 2" and 236 lbs; if anything that's a linebacker-sized guy. I mean, if we're flipping QBs to WR then put Kendrick Bell out there any hope he's like his brother.
I beseech you to look at the Iowa depth chart and their offensive coordinator from last season and compare it to UM's right now. Morgan and Morris are solid players with upside, and they have TEs like Loveland and Klein who can also be part of the passing game. Throw in the running backs and a floor of Tuttle at QB and that's a significantly better offense than Iowa has fielded. Hell, that's arguably a better offense than PSU put out last year.
UM is going to not be as dynamic as they were last season but the idea they're going to fall down a hole of despair that is Iowa offense the past couple of seasons is immensely hyperbolic.
The offense was sort of forced through him to keep him engaged was my take; yes you want to get him involved offensively but he was a sub-100 offensive player with a 24% TO rate on limited usage. I agree that Dug was the one creator but Reed was always going to be the 4th/5th option most times down the court. What hurt the team was that #2-4 were typically really bad.
I think Reed will be a good defensive player at UConn because he'll be asked to do less and they have a more coherent system where the wings and guards are more active and don't let guys just blow past them regularly. I also do think he'd work with the defensive style I assume May will run.
I agree - defensively he'll likely be much better with a better overall defensive system around him. Offensively he had a TO rate of 24% and that's more on his weak handle and limited post game. Those can obviously improve but Dickinson was a maestro with the ball both as a passer and a scorer as a freshman, skills Reed has never consistently flashed.
Yeah, defensively I think that was team-wide and we've seen him be effective, in spurts at least, as a high-level rim defender with some switchability. Offensively...he had a 24% TO rate which is, as the kids say, not great. And he's not a high-usage offensive player so it's even worse because it means his relatively few touches go the other way about 1/4 times and he's not generating a bunch of assists or scoring at a high enough rate that you can live with it. That's a part of his game that you have to see improve for him to be anything more than a rotational player on a good team.
I do think UConn will have a plan for him and he'll likely do better there than he showed last season, though as we've learned after Howard left there wasn't a ton of coaching going on in an acute way that I think would have been better either under May or even another year under Howard when he wasn't struggling to return from heart surgery. Like, Reed looked like a plus defensive player as a freshman.
I mean, he wasn't playing well at UM. Maybe he'll get better with better coaching at UConn but he was still an inefficient offensive player and a mediocre defensive one. That likely is due in no small part to poor coaching he was receiving but it's still the reality. I hope he succeeds at UConn but you can't objectively watch him play this year and come out thinking he played well.
That's a bit unfair. He's got good size, is a decent mid-range shooter, is a developing playmaker in terms of a passer and has defensive versatility. He may not fit for May's plan but he's absolutely the type of recruit May and UN would want more generally - a high-upside player who's at least a 2, probably 3-year player who isn't likely to get NBA buzz unless he absolutely explodes as a freshman.
Makes sense and I don't blame him. I sort of assumed he wasn't going to UM once Howard left, even if the Georgia coach switch upped the odds. We'll see how it goes.
For all of his hypocrisy Nick Saban never seemed to get into crazy fights with the NCAA like this. Dabo is a weirdo yet won two titles and, again, generally stayed above the fray. There are ways to perform while not creating more headaches for yourself and your compatriots, and Harbaugh struggles with that more than a lot of other coaches.
Again, I'm happy he won UM a title and I'm sure this will all be water under the bridge but there's no schematic or competitive advantage to fucking around with an NCAA investigator when it's clear they have the goods on you involved in some minor NCAA violations.
They suspended some coaches for 3 meaningless games because that was going to be the type of punishment the NCAA would have handed out. I don't get why people keep acting like every other school gets away with stuff when they get caught - they usually get probation and some recruiting restrictions, and UM's added suspension of some coaches is largely because Harbaugh was caught, at the very least, being uncooperative with an investigation. Yes is that petty? Sure, but that's the deal you make with the NCAA and so they took their medicine and it sounds that was basically it.
Also, save me this "UM's AD didn't stand up for Harbaugh" bullshit. They sued the fucking Big 10 to stop his suspension, and mounted a very public defense of him during the Signgate fiasco. Chris Partridge being an idiot and texting players not to help with the investigation is why they stopped fighting it in court, which again isn't something an AD can do anything about. They allowed Harbaugh to hire people like Schemmy even though a cursory review of his social media posting showed he was immensely problematic. Harbaugh antagonized the Burgergate situation from a bunch of minor violations into a major one, and there's nothing an AD can realistically do there. Warde Manuel and the school's AD has real issues but at some point "Jim Harbaugh being Jim Harbaugh" is the source of a lot of the issues and the AD is going to be stuck dealing with the fallout of his actions long after he returns to the NFL, so it's not a lack of "spine" to recognize you've lost this fight and try to make right with the shitty cops who still have jurisdiction over you.
Yeah, I totally get how his players and staff really like him but how he'd be exhausting as someone who works for you or you don't have a personal connection with.
I'm glad he won a title and I applaud him for his player advocacy but he's a bit of a chaos agent especially when he thinks he can get away with it
Yeah, Harbaugh acting like UM needs to defend his honor once he bolted is pretty stupid. Again, I agree with Harbaugh that the violations are BS but he didn't stick around to fight them and instead left that to his former employer so I'm not sure what he expected UM to do
I don't know what Mars and Harbaugh thought would happen - he left for the NFL and so he really doesn't have any skin in the game anymore. By comparison, UM and the current team and coaches are still on the hook. So of course they're going to try to figure something out to limit their punishment. Tom Mars is sort of a dipshit and Harbaugh is entitled to say his piece but grow the fuck up and take your shot at the NCAA and not at UM.
Recent Comments
Yeah, Rooths seems like a longshot but this team has already changed its construction so much in the past week that a guy like him might be encouraged that it wouldn't be a wasted year to come play for May and possibly even make the tourney. Georgia and FSU, two other teams he's been linked to recently, aren't particularly inspiring on that front.
Yeah, it was a different time and while I still think a new coach deserves time and grace to rebuild a team (similarly, I'm not judging Moore harshly if UM, relatively speaking, struggles this season), the portal definitely allows good coaches with a solid system/outlook put a proof-of-concept team out there in year 1.
I'm still tempering expectations but rebuilding a roster with a portal sure seems easier than Beilein had to do early on. May seemingly has a plan here and it looks good.
Yeah, it's more that I read he was likely signing for a couple of days now. Definitely true that breaking into that top 100 has been tougher than you'd expect for a defending national champion and a team with a recent run like UM has had for 3 years now.
Ah yes, because apparently "hate" is pointing out that a guy who was a sub-50% passer in HS and who hasn't shown much ability throwing the ball at UM is going to flourish in year 1 with a completely new offensive system that the staff would have to install that is markedly different than the one they used to win a national title and go something like 30-3 the past 3 seasons.
Your opinion is different than mine, and that's fair. Nothing we say here actually matters; none of us will put even the slightest pressure on Moore and co. to pick a QB. But saying "if they don't pick Orji they've conceded a year and will, at best, finish 9-3 without any meaningful accomplishments" I feel it's within the Message Board By-Laws of the Internet to push back with tangible examples of how, in fact, this team has won quite a bit with more limited QBs than the guy with questionable accuracy but a ton of raw ability.
Yeah, I noted this elsewhere but UM had a run of small-ish guards who could be moved around; that's not the case with guys like Donaldson and Gayle.
The depth chart just looks more balanced right now than it did toward the end under Howard, and that's a nice sign of optimism. Again, there will be bumps along the way but this looks like a competitive team in this conference as it stands.
Not a surprise but absolutely no complaints about a top-50 guy on the defensive line.
This feels like a massive projection based on virtually no actual evidence. The "option offense" assumes Orji can run that complex system of reads well, all the backs figure out how to master those same intricacies, and the offensive line and TEs who were recruited and coached in one way of blocking seamlessly migrate to a different one with a first-time HC and OC who, AFAIK, haven't run it before.
On the other hand, Cade McNamara couldn't do anything at an elite level, and to some here was the worst possible QB UM has seen in forever, and won a conference crown and went to the playoffs. So yeah, if they can get a Cade-level performance out of the QB spot then we have evidence of that working out pretty well.
Jalen Milroe was a top-100 player in his class and was an accurate-ish HS passer (60% for his career) while Orji was a 3* kid who completed under 50% of his passes throughout HS, and even if you throw out his first year as a starter he only completed 51% of his passes as an upperclassman. That's got Joe Milton stink on it, and while some people seemingly enjoyed that experienced it got old for me pretty quickly. And Milroe just finished a season where he threw for 10 ypa at 66%, 23 TDs and 6 picks and had elite WRs he was throwing to. Orji isn't anywhere close to that or has that type of WR talent on the team.
Listen, Orji is a top-level athlete and I can see the glimmers of ability there if he can put the passing part of it all together. But he's also been on campus for 3 years now and still looks limited, and at some point you've got a ticking clock on how much realistic time you'd get out of him before eligibility ran out. I suspect they'll give him a shot and create a sub-package for him but him as the team's starting QB has a realistic ceiling that is way lower than some are willing to admit unless we just assume he's been sandbagging for years and is in fact a top-level defense reader and accurate thrower.
I just don't quite get the Orji love as a starting QB. Maybe he figures it all out but he's entering his third year on campus and is going to be 21 midway through the season. He's got some ability but if you switch the offense completely around to cater to his strengths (running, athleticism) then you're (a) limiting your upside elsewhere with the other QBs on the roster for this season, and (b) signalling that you should probably start recruiting QBs like him going forward because otherwise you're just going to be flipping around your offense in a year or two once he's not the starter and, I don't know, Davis is your preferred starter. There's some overlap in terms of skillsets there but that's still a different style of QB (the Jalen Milroe-type guy who was a bruiser but could also throw decently if unrefined) versus what UM liked to get under Harbaugh (the JJ type who was really accurate as a passer and had enough athleticism to be a weapon with the ball in his hands). OSU under Urban Meyer made the decision to go away from the JT types to the Haskins/Stroud types and didn't look back, and thats the type of buy-in Moore would similarly need to make. He may very well do so, but that's the choice you'd need to make.
Also, the Rich Rod offense we all remember isn't really the one you'd love to run in 2024 football IMO. He runs it at places like Jax St. because it works with the talent he's got available to him and the relative competition (the CUSA is pretty mediocre outside of Liberty, which is itself sort of a mediocre program that just outspends the other schools). But there was an article I read a couple years ago where they asked coaches what part of "dual threat" they liked more in their QBs and all said arm talent and accuracy. Most guys can move enough now that they aren't John Navarre types back there, and you can scheme a couple of runs a game for QBs if you need them. But guys like Milroe, Daniels, Lamar Jackson in the NFL as well as college, etc. work because they are decent passers and can make teams pay even when they don't bite on the run, and I'm not seeing that with Orji yet. Warren is closer to that type of QB, and if the rumors about his injuries last year are true then he's the better option, along with Tuttle, for this season with Orji coming in as a package asset until/if he becomes a more complete passer.
As for the basketball roster discussion, I'm not sold they're a top-4 in the conference type of team but they have a floor that is .500 in the conference and a bubble contender. That's a reasonable expectation given the fact we're still talking about a lot of transfers and most of the guys needing to learn a new offensive and defensive system.
I won't pile on too much but this happens every year and people freak out. WF, Syracuse, and Texas Tech are all ranked in the top 12 mostly on volume. It's a largely new staff with a first time HC. Give them some time. Also, Harbaugh leaving when he did and taking the guys he did doubly didn't help.
To be fair, Jace was a walk-on in 2020 until they missed on Todd and Christopher and there was a scholarship spot open for him. And he's been on scholarship for 4 years, so going in as a walk-on with his dad gone wouldn't be crazy.
I agree about Cason but guys also realize that with May that's more likely going to have playing time for guards and if you think you're better than GW3 and Brooks now why not role the dice?
Yeah, I sort of assumed Burnett was sticking around. Maybe he jumps to the portal but I thought he was a grad transfer anyway from Alabama so that shouldn't be a hindrance.
Davis seems like a guy who's going to take time to figure it out so yeah, skip him for now and if he comes back to the fold that's great. UM can shake some money for him if they can/want to. Gayle seems like a lock and Goldin, you hope, joins soon. That's a solid roster if they all do plus a chance for 1-2 more development/multi-year guys.
I said it in another thread but this team looks like a bubble one and an average B1G team if the roster above largely sticks. It's not going to blow anyone away but I think last year warped a lot of people's understanding of this conference and CBB generally. They aren't going to the Sweet 16 or anything but with the portal you can piece together a solid team early on and then hope to hit on same late bloomers like Pippen on the recruiting trail.
I'm less optimistic about Rooths coming but if they can get a PF that would be nice. Rooths would be a nicer offense and defense combo than you probably are getting from the portal, but maybe the tide changes there.
Yeah, he's a two-way player in the way Smith couldn't be as much simply because of size and athleticism but P5 PGs with starter experience are hard to come by, even though Smith had the advantage of being a senior with experience being the offensive centerpiece at Columbia.
The physicality feels like it'll be a departure from what UM has had at PG basically since Simpson; Donaldson is 6' 3" and 200lbs. For comparison, GW III is 6'2" but 170, Dug was (charitably) listed at 5' 11" and 175 lbs, and Llewellyn was 6' 2" and 190lbs. DeVante' was the only PG they've had around 200 lbs but he was 6' 1" and lacked the overall athleticism.
If he's an average PG in this conference that would be really nice, especially since May wants to play at least 3 guards who are pretty switchable and can shoot.
A nice pickup.
I was excited about him because he's been a PG at a major-conference team and has good measurables and decent overall offensive numbers. Auburn basically had two platoons of players they'd roll out so his per-game numbers were depressed but are solid extrapolated over a starter's minutes. He's prone to turn the ball over more than you'd like, but he's also a 28% assist rate so it seems like he's a bit of a gambler. Not perfect but that might also be a by-product of Auburn's offensive system; I looked back at their other PGs over the years and all have somewhat elevated TO rates.
The shooting potential is there and so is the athleticism/size; he won't be Dug in that guys can just muscle him around. I don't think he's going to be a a dominant lead guard but the floor with him feels higher than Dug's, who had some amazing offensive performances but was a bad defender and could be bullied by larger defenders. He's also a multi-year player so there's room to grow and build around him a bit as an upperclassmen instead of a 1-year rental (unless he just blows up).
So again, really nice pick-up and the team is starting to look a bit more coherent and balanced.
Awesome performance by the men. The gap between UM and Stanford was smaller than the gap between UM and OU in third, which is impressive.
So me saying "the floor is 10-10" is outrageous to you (apparently that also means Sweet 16 as well but, hey, speak your truth king) while you saying "the floor is 8-12" is sobering, thoughtful basketball analysis. Thanks for your insightful contributions to this discussion.
I'm not here to kink shame but you seem like you're going thru something right now.
Also, you seem to really hate following this basketball team so feel free to not snipe through every comment and neg people you disagree with and just...not comment.
I agree that Warren has done this before in the spring game but his rep was JJ-lite, so if he can reach that level (and there was talk he was nursing an injury last year, I believe, so that probably hurt him a bit) then that's a positive development. I'm not sold this isn't just spring ball legend material but I just don't think Orji is quite there yet and so a Warren/Orji/Tuttle competition that's actually got options would be nice.
I thought the receivers looked fine but they don't have a Wilson type who can just burn defenders, and so we'll see how they handle that schematically.
RBs looked good, but that's not a huge surprise.
Defenses are always hard to read in games like this but, yeah, CB2 not being roasted by a walk-on is a big positive.
I remain interested to see if/when they get Tuttle what he can do. He's a middling P5 QB but that's a better track record than anyone else on the roster.
I do agree that Orji still seems limited. I know the refrain is you can just run the read option with him but it's not 2008 anymore; good teams have figured out how to defend that if your QB can't throw the ball and until proven otherwise Orji hasn't shown he can make guys pay with his arm.
Next year's league just isn't that strong IMO so .500 feels pretty doable. Right now we don't really know what Purdue looks without Edey; it's probably solid but you don't lose a 2-time NPOY and just keep chugging along, and as we saw in the national title game the drop-off from Edey to everyone else on that roster is pretty steep. MSU similarly turns over a bunch of guys from a mediocre team, and I feel like Izzo is fading as an effective coach overall. Wisconsin had a surprising run but then lost Storr and Hepburn and I still think Gard is a bit of a weird coach who, for example, nearly lost the lockerroom a couple seasons ago. Illinois without Shannon is another unknown, though they'll be competitive. NW just had their peak roster year so we'll see how they look next season, and Iowa was just...Iowa. Rutgers has some talent coming in but they weren't great last year despite playing a terrible non-conference schedule. Maryland is up in the air and will have a lot of roster turnover. OSU was basically as bad as UM last season until the coaching change, at which point they started to shoot the ball much better from outside but we'll have to see if that's sustainable or just a hot streak. And then you've got the 4 new teams coming in but considering only Oregon got in last season and that was only because they won the conference auto-bid, not sure if that changes the calculus much. So it feels like a tractable conference where 2-3 more transfers at the right spots gives you a decent floor in what is shaping up to be a mediocre conference.
As for the portal teams that are around .500, that seemingly is based on 2-3 teams. Like, St. John's took 9 guys but finished 21st per KenPom; they seemingly only missed the tourney because they lost to UM and/or they pissed off the wrong deity. If May can turn around a roster and return a top-25 team that's pretty damn good. WVU took 10 and were terrible but that was also a mess of a staff turnover that isn't close to the crater May stepped into at UM, as Howard isn't a drunk mess suing UM and being a raging asshole as well.
I also think people may be overreacting a bit to how awful last season was possibly to factors beyond raw talent on the court. Like, that team wasn't 8-and-whatever bad in terms of talent, just couldn't play a lick of defense and then had that insane Dug-is-sorta-suspended-so-we-only-play-one-PG-a-game situation that absolutely submarined winnable games. They've lost guys like Reed and Dug but I think Tschetter and Burnett are solid players who can be better with more/better coaching, and I think May has a plan to deal with the lack of SF depth he's likely to walk into. I'm actually less worried about guard depth now if a couple of the transfers show up. And if May gets 2-3 guys from FAU then it's even less of a continuity concern with transfers that you sometimes see; importing guys who know your system and are experienced is different than starting from scratch with different guys in a new system for them.
So yeah, I'm probably a bit optimistic but I also feel a bit like last year's team has some 2020 football vibes in that they were abjectly terrible but in ways that better coaching can mitigate reasonably quickly.
Yeah, the fact he's likely getting multi-year players from the portal is key because otherwise you'd just see a real year-2 drop off. So guys like Wolf and Goldin are nice pick-ups for depth and continuity.
Definitely. I do think playing UM's defense probably made the offense look a bit more limited than it will against a lot of the schedule, but I suspect they'll have to scheme more guys open this year than maybe the last 2 under McCarthy where he could muscle throws into windows.
Yeah. Tearing your UCL in your shoulder feels like the type of injury with wildly different recovery timelines based on each individual and the nature of the injury. But if he can bounce back then he's got a solid floor as a QB for this team.
I still think Tuttle will get a crack at starter because the floor with him seems to be semi-competent B1G QB, which can win you 9-10 games.
Also, 9-3 wouldn't be bad at all given this schedule. Hell, depending on which teams are the "9" and which are the "3" they might even sniff the playoffs.
From what I saw I think Tuttle is the starter with Orji competing for the spot as the year progresses, with Warren also being in the mix a bit. They're definitely going to lean on the running game but they are some pass-catchers on this roster and a QB who can make the smart, quick throw will do well.
Feels like the floor for this team is around .500 in the league and fighting on the bubble if they get 2-3 more transfers, which would be a really nice year 1. Wolf and Jones give them solid depth and May clearly has a plan.
Yeah, these violations were far more egregious than what UM did but Herm was also somewhat combative like Harbaugh was, which didn't help the Sun Devils. But this feels about right in terms of punishment.
Yeah, it's mostly the same guys with dipshit opinions about other teams turning their stupidity toward McCarthy. Like, Tom Fornelli said "I like Quinyon Mitchell and his tape but when was the last time a top-level corner came from the MAC?" but seemingly not applying the same logic to Sauce Gardner, another G5 corner who sure seemed like a capable first-round corner.
One of them loves Penix quite a bit for reasons I don't understand; we saw what happens when teams get pressure on him and it's the Michigan game, the ASU game, hell even Wazzou got after him a bit. He's going to be 24 when he takes his first NFL snap, which is 2 years younger than Lamar Jackson and a year younger than guys like Herbert, Jordan Love, Tua, etc. Bo Nix is even older. McCarthy, by comparison, would be 21 and has shown an ability to scramble and make plays out of the playcall and with (relatively) limited WRs.
McCarthy feels like the 3rd-best QB in this class unless you REALLY believe that Daniels can get away with everything he did at LSU in the NFL. No Kelly-coached QB has AFAIK, but I guess there's a first time for everything. I could even buy McCarthy as #2 if you're down on Williams, who I think has the widest variance of elite-to-headcase QB in this class. But none of the QBs in this class feel like sure things, and in an objective non-needs world I'd probably draft Harrison Jr. first and welcome a HOFer onto my team happily. But that's not the world we live in and if I'm, say, the Giants and I can get McCarthy to replace what is objectively a bad QB in Daniel Jones in a year or 2 I'd jump at it.
Real shame for them.
Doyel just seems like an awful guy to be around, mostly because he seemingly believes he's charming and thoughtful instead of a weirdo.
The drop-off from McCarthy is real but this team also made the playoffs with Cade McNamara, who I have been told by multiple people on this site and elsewhere was a terrible QB, and also won 10 games with the likes of Wilton Speight, John O'Korn, and sometime-UFL starter Shea Patterson at the helm. The drop from McCarthy to Tuttle/Orji/Warren/Davis/Denegal will be significant but I also think people are assuming the absolute worst possible outcome for the QB room instead of the most likely, which is that out of those 5 guys they get B+-level QB play against most teams. The difference is that none of them are going to bail them out against an elite defense, but there's only 3-4 of those on the docket and I'm a bit dubious on OU. Plus, they play most of their toughest games at home, which will help a less-talented offense.
The OP was saying UM is likely going 7-5 with an Iowa-level offense, while "a record closer to 7-5 than 12-0" could just as easily be 10-2/9-3. Nobody is acting like the offense won't take a step back but I think a lot of fans have this binary viewpoint of football that you're either a championship contender or a .500 squad and that's not true. Hell, Iowa went 10-4 last season with the most Iowa-ass offense possible, so even they weren't 7-5 bad.
Yeah, you're right. He didn't play a down this year so I was mostly going off the depth chart but per MGoBlue he's a scout team WR.
I still don't think moving Orji to WR makes any sense unless he's expressed an interest to do so or the staff feels that's his best spot, though given his size I'd be surprised if they'd put him there and not somewhere else.
Yeah, the fact he was in the 2020 class, which is the same one Hunter Dickinson, Terrance Williams, and Jace Howard was in, and he apparently doesn't have his degree yet is absolutely a "him" problem and not one for UM's admissions.
I've also come to realize that there is just a pat number of things to complain about around here that'll always get you upvotes even if they aren't remotely applicable. Admissions is one of them, and while sometimes they absolutely do make it harder for athletes to transfer into this school than elsewhere, this place also loves to act like a Michigan degree is some well-earned mark of superiority that much be treated with proper reverence.
Michigan's 2024-2025 season will not be saved by Davis coming or doomed by his absence.
Why would you convert Orji to WR? If he's not a QB then so be it but he's 6' 2" and 236 lbs; if anything that's a linebacker-sized guy. I mean, if we're flipping QBs to WR then put Kendrick Bell out there any hope he's like his brother.
I beseech you to look at the Iowa depth chart and their offensive coordinator from last season and compare it to UM's right now. Morgan and Morris are solid players with upside, and they have TEs like Loveland and Klein who can also be part of the passing game. Throw in the running backs and a floor of Tuttle at QB and that's a significantly better offense than Iowa has fielded. Hell, that's arguably a better offense than PSU put out last year.
UM is going to not be as dynamic as they were last season but the idea they're going to fall down a hole of despair that is Iowa offense the past couple of seasons is immensely hyperbolic.
The offense was sort of forced through him to keep him engaged was my take; yes you want to get him involved offensively but he was a sub-100 offensive player with a 24% TO rate on limited usage. I agree that Dug was the one creator but Reed was always going to be the 4th/5th option most times down the court. What hurt the team was that #2-4 were typically really bad.
I think Reed will be a good defensive player at UConn because he'll be asked to do less and they have a more coherent system where the wings and guards are more active and don't let guys just blow past them regularly. I also do think he'd work with the defensive style I assume May will run.
I agree - defensively he'll likely be much better with a better overall defensive system around him. Offensively he had a TO rate of 24% and that's more on his weak handle and limited post game. Those can obviously improve but Dickinson was a maestro with the ball both as a passer and a scorer as a freshman, skills Reed has never consistently flashed.
Yeah, defensively I think that was team-wide and we've seen him be effective, in spurts at least, as a high-level rim defender with some switchability. Offensively...he had a 24% TO rate which is, as the kids say, not great. And he's not a high-usage offensive player so it's even worse because it means his relatively few touches go the other way about 1/4 times and he's not generating a bunch of assists or scoring at a high enough rate that you can live with it. That's a part of his game that you have to see improve for him to be anything more than a rotational player on a good team.
I do think UConn will have a plan for him and he'll likely do better there than he showed last season, though as we've learned after Howard left there wasn't a ton of coaching going on in an acute way that I think would have been better either under May or even another year under Howard when he wasn't struggling to return from heart surgery. Like, Reed looked like a plus defensive player as a freshman.
I mean, he wasn't playing well at UM. Maybe he'll get better with better coaching at UConn but he was still an inefficient offensive player and a mediocre defensive one. That likely is due in no small part to poor coaching he was receiving but it's still the reality. I hope he succeeds at UConn but you can't objectively watch him play this year and come out thinking he played well.
Good luck to him. Not a bad place to land.
That's a bit unfair. He's got good size, is a decent mid-range shooter, is a developing playmaker in terms of a passer and has defensive versatility. He may not fit for May's plan but he's absolutely the type of recruit May and UN would want more generally - a high-upside player who's at least a 2, probably 3-year player who isn't likely to get NBA buzz unless he absolutely explodes as a freshman.
Makes sense and I don't blame him. I sort of assumed he wasn't going to UM once Howard left, even if the Georgia coach switch upped the odds. We'll see how it goes.
For all of his hypocrisy Nick Saban never seemed to get into crazy fights with the NCAA like this. Dabo is a weirdo yet won two titles and, again, generally stayed above the fray. There are ways to perform while not creating more headaches for yourself and your compatriots, and Harbaugh struggles with that more than a lot of other coaches.
Again, I'm happy he won UM a title and I'm sure this will all be water under the bridge but there's no schematic or competitive advantage to fucking around with an NCAA investigator when it's clear they have the goods on you involved in some minor NCAA violations.
They suspended some coaches for 3 meaningless games because that was going to be the type of punishment the NCAA would have handed out. I don't get why people keep acting like every other school gets away with stuff when they get caught - they usually get probation and some recruiting restrictions, and UM's added suspension of some coaches is largely because Harbaugh was caught, at the very least, being uncooperative with an investigation. Yes is that petty? Sure, but that's the deal you make with the NCAA and so they took their medicine and it sounds that was basically it.
Also, save me this "UM's AD didn't stand up for Harbaugh" bullshit. They sued the fucking Big 10 to stop his suspension, and mounted a very public defense of him during the Signgate fiasco. Chris Partridge being an idiot and texting players not to help with the investigation is why they stopped fighting it in court, which again isn't something an AD can do anything about. They allowed Harbaugh to hire people like Schemmy even though a cursory review of his social media posting showed he was immensely problematic. Harbaugh antagonized the Burgergate situation from a bunch of minor violations into a major one, and there's nothing an AD can realistically do there. Warde Manuel and the school's AD has real issues but at some point "Jim Harbaugh being Jim Harbaugh" is the source of a lot of the issues and the AD is going to be stuck dealing with the fallout of his actions long after he returns to the NFL, so it's not a lack of "spine" to recognize you've lost this fight and try to make right with the shitty cops who still have jurisdiction over you.
Yeah, I totally get how his players and staff really like him but how he'd be exhausting as someone who works for you or you don't have a personal connection with.
I'm glad he won a title and I applaud him for his player advocacy but he's a bit of a chaos agent especially when he thinks he can get away with it
Not a surprise but still a nice pickup. Let's keep them coming.
Yeah, Harbaugh acting like UM needs to defend his honor once he bolted is pretty stupid. Again, I agree with Harbaugh that the violations are BS but he didn't stick around to fight them and instead left that to his former employer so I'm not sure what he expected UM to do
I don't know what Mars and Harbaugh thought would happen - he left for the NFL and so he really doesn't have any skin in the game anymore. By comparison, UM and the current team and coaches are still on the hook. So of course they're going to try to figure something out to limit their punishment. Tom Mars is sort of a dipshit and Harbaugh is entitled to say his piece but grow the fuck up and take your shot at the NCAA and not at UM.