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It's a rule of thumb but not It's a rule of thumb but not that formulaic . For example in the NFL, oddsmakers give the Seattle home field advantage usually more value than Jacksonville playing at home.
We should try to develop the

We should try to develop the Michigan fan survival kit in case of emergency. Stuff like this needs to be kept alongside a youtube clip of Burke's 3 vs Kansas, Braylonfest, Harbaugh's opening press conference... 

It still remains to be seen

It still remains to be seen what we can do against elite competition.  We played a very good game against Arizona with a limited McGary but did not finish off that win.  Is the current iteration of Morgan and Horford so much of a drop-off from the far less than 100% Mitch McGary we saw this season? 

I think 2 wins isn't such an unreasonable ask in that 7 game stretch but we will learn a lot about the team in the next 3 games. 

I think a lot of Gardner's

I think a lot of Gardner's turnovers this year have come from the offensive line getting blown up and him pressing into mistakes.  So, it'll come down to turnover margin, but I think more than anything will be all about the offensive line.  If we can make MSU drive the length of the field for their points, I think we've got a chance.

Also, I feel like this is the first time we've come into this game off of a bye while they've played the week before, so hopefully the coaching staff can make that a worthwhile advantage?

Agree with this 100%.  Not

Agree with this 100%.  Not saying the remaining players don't deserve the attention but we're nowhere close to winning that game without an epic second half performance from Hardaway, who has shown (against Minnesota notably and here) that he can carry the offense for periods of time in big games. 

The biggest matchup problem

The biggest matchup problem we had last year was with their bigs.  Watford and Zeller dominated us in the first game (combined for 43 points) and we had a big lead that got eaten away but we still held on in the 2nd game, where Zeller and Watford combined scored 20.

 

Hardaway shot a combined 11 of 33 from the field (2 of 15 on 3s) against Oladipo's defense last year.  I think we're going to definitely see some zone; it's just going to be on whoever is not being guarded by Oladipo to punish Indiana and make them rethink their defensive plan.  The more we make them have to adjust to us the better chance we will have to win. 

I like our chances against Watford more this year because GR3 definitely has a better chance of guarding him effectively than Smotrycz or Novak did.  Even without Morgan, the combination of McGary and Horford will hopefully keep us at least treading water in that matchup.  Zeller is a pretty unselfish player and they have a lot of offensive options, so I don't think we'd see him scoring 30+ points.  They have a pretty diverse offensive attack like we do so we're just going to have to go into a hostile environment and play our best game to win.  It's going to be fun.

I love the enthusiasm

I love the enthusiasm surrounding the team right now; it's crazy how quickly things have changed.  We have really come a long way in terms of getting talent in here, but I really think it's way too early to evaluate any of our freshmen as players.  I don't think we've really got a good sense of how much GR3 can develop offensively in terms of becoming a guy who can create his own shot and be a go to guy.  At this point he's rated within the top 20-25 prospects (conservatively) on a lot of the mock drafts and top prospects lists.  We just haven't seen a very large sample size of any of these guys.  Hardaway at this point is projected as a late 2nd round pick, which doesn't even result in a guaranteed contract.  My focus at this point is just hoping these guys all develop and stay at Michigan as many years as possible.  We can cheer them on in their opportunities for the NBA when that time comes (and Trey will likely be first up).

NC State has a very talented

NC State has a very talented frontcourt but to be honest, I am a little more concerned about dealing with the Watford/Zeller combo at Indiana...

The move of Gardner to WR was

The move of Gardner to WR was certainly not a slam dunk success but I think it's hard to blame the coaches for it.  Their hand was forced due to inferior depth.  As someone above mentioned, if we have Stonum this year, Gardner stays the backup at quarterback.  Even with Gardner getting reps at quarterback as the backup all year, is he going to lead the offense to enough points against Nebraska to win the game? Who knows.  It would have been much easier to stomach watching Gardner play quarterback than watching Bellomy but the upside of Denard's injury is that Gardner got a lot of experience at quarterback and we now feel a lot better about our QB situation next year because of it.  Now, can we get enough production from the skill positions to allow Gardner and this offense to flourish?

I agree 10% with this.  This

I agree 10% with this.  This seems to be how Deadspin generally gets any attention; post things that no one else is going to post regardless of its substantive merit or truth. Putting a college kid's homework assignment up there for the purpose of making fun of him is pretty pathetic and none of our business really.

With that being said, let's contain him tonight and get a big win on our home court.

Sadly it's really hard to

Sadly it's really hard to talk myself into believing Iowa has a chance this week after watching us play Iowa last week but hey, maybe Vandenburg can complete 20 passes to the tight end and we'll get at least a half of hope for a chance to play our way into the Big 10 title game

I will be heading to this

I will be heading to this game tomorrow at MSG...hard to really tell anything about Pitt at this point; they certainly will be an upgrade over who we have played before on a neutral court.  I haven't seen a line on this one yet but my guess is we struggle at points but end up winning 75-65; comfortable winning margin.

I could understand if the

I could understand if the Buckeyes were playing anyone else... but when they are playing against Michigan State, and  we can claim our first share of the Big 10 championship since 1986, go Buckeyes, for 1 game and 1 game only!  I think different rules should apply when your 2 least favorite programs are playing against one another; sometimes the overall balance of things leads to it making sense to root for one of them..

But yes, first priority...go Wolverines against Penn State...

Fiesta Bowl

What seems to also be going unmentioned about Stanford (although not precisely a game theory issue I guess) is that in Overtime they get the ball immediately after this redshirt freshman kid botches a field goal attempt.  They run for 5 yards on first and 10, but are back at 2nd and 10 after a fall start and they run the ball again for a 3 yard loss.  3rd and 13, Andrew Luck throws a check down pass that gains 3 yards, and you put the same kid who just botched a much more makeable field goal in to attempt a 42 yarder probably no more than 5 minutes of real time after he already botched it in regulation.  You have Andrew Luck, why are you bailing out the defense??? Overtime you need to be playing for TDs, especially when you have the ball first, not setting up an awkwardly distanced field goal for a mediocre kicker.

Player thoughts:

1)

Player thoughts:

1) Hardaway is ready to lead the team.  His ball handling, abilities inside the 3 point line, creation of opportunities at the free throw line, and passing have all improved considerably.  This is going to be a special season for him and we're never really out of a game with him involved.  The thing I loved about the Duke game is despite how uninvolved he was in the first half, that we all just knew he was going to make himself heard before the game was over.

 

2) Burke looks solid, but the issues people brought up about getting scouted are valid.  Also, he is being asked to play a lot of minutes so far; there may be a little bit of a rookie wall factor as we get into the conference season if we can't get him some decent rest here and there.  But you have to be happy with what he brings to the table, he's another guy who can create his own shot, hit jump shots, and penetrate.  Much more offensively diverse than Morris, and for the future it's probably better that Morris left just because it's given Burke this year to really take the lead. 

3) The biggest variability I think is going to come from the frontcourt.  Horford being more comfortable finishing near the basket and actually being able to use his body is important; it's a good insurance policy for Morgan foul trouble.  Morgan looks more comfortable finishing around the basket with his left hand, shooting the 10 foot jump shot, and using his quickness in the post.  Smotrycz also clearly has worked a lot and has a lot of different tools at his disposal; he just needs to get himself under control and stay on the court.  With the coaching we have, these guys I think will all play better as the year goes on but I could see Smotrycz being inconsistent.

 

Cousins is a little bit more

Cousins is a little bit more mobile than I think you're giving him credit for, or maybe our defense was just THAT bad, but in '09 I remember him breaking a 41 yard run against us and rushing for 75 yards overall. This defense has a lot better pursuit and more aggression than the last couple years so I don't think Cousins will hurt us rushing the ball but I do think he's mobile enough within the pocket to be dangerous.

I think it's a little bit too

I think it's a little bit too early to tell.  Both guys are coming off their first year as college starters (although Morris did play 23 minutes a game as a freshman)...Hardaway is MILES ahead of where Morris was as a freshman.  If he makes a leap next year that even approximates Morris' leap from freshman to sophomore year, my guess would be Hardaway would be a much higher projected NBA draft pick.  

Would that be the worst

Would that be the worst combined mobility in the history of a 1 and 2 quarterback pairing? 

Florida has underachieved in

Florida has underachieved in the tourney but they also were back to back champions a few years ago, so I'm not sure that's really a fair characterization.

That's exactly what he meant,

That's exactly what he meant, as illuminated by further posts on that particular thread.  Stauskas has 2 5* rated guys on his team that got the hype all season and he consistently outperformed them (as stated by this guy).  

The point of NBAdraft.net is

The point of NBAdraft.net is just essentially to rate the prospects; the teams that are drafting just change whenever they update the site based on the standings at the time.  So don't write them off completely just because of that.


That being said...Draftexpress.com is a far more reputable site than NBAdraft.net, and their projection of Darius is in the 50s, which seems to correlate more with most other expectations at this point. 

No one's saying he won't

No one's saying he won't listen to draft projections and such as the season has ended.  But what Snyder's doing is just absurd conjecture that has no basis.  If Morris loads up draftexpress.com, should this ultimately be a news story? Snyder's a reporter who is not actually reporting anything.  That's the problem.

What the heck makes you think

What the heck makes you think McLimans has the skill necessary to play the 3? Hardaway HAS been playing the 3 all season, he's a solid 6 foot 5, and he's been perfect at the position.  McLimans will be lucky to play 5 minutes a game next year. 

The lineup switch for

The lineup switch for Michigan was all about Smotrycz hitting the wall/not playing well at the 4, NOT Novak's failings at the 3.  As good as Novak is FOR HIS SIZE as a rebounder, bigger guys are better AND necessary against the teams we play against.  We can always break the small lineup out and be very effective, but we're not a championship level team with Novak guarding Mbakwe one on one.  And why should we do that to the poor kid? He can guard small forwards and help out on the boards just as easily from the 3. 

Stu is a guy that can

Stu is a guy that can certainly frustrate us.  I think he will likely start next year and just end up with a reduced role.  It took Hardaway a while this year to become the contributor that he ended up being, and I think he was a fairly precocious freshman.  Darius Morris the year before ended up playing 23 minutes a game and couldn't score worth a lick.  Smotrycz obviously had his growing pains.  So, maybe Burke and Brundidge come in and play so well that they cut into Stu's minutes immediately, but I doubt it.  You put Stu in a role with less pressure, and I think he will be just fine.  I just don't feel comfortable depending on him 35 minutes a game to play lockdown D AND reliably knock down 3s, I just dont' think he's good enough for that.  

We only lost 1 point on that

We only lost 1 point on that so I'm not sure what it ultimately would have changed.  That being said, the call was completely absurd. 

Forget a lob, I think he

Forget a lob, I think he could have had an angle to make that pass to Hardaway.  That being said, in close quarters, for Hardaway to make a clean catch and go up may have been difficult, but I'm sure he gets body contact.

For the people saying that Duke defended the last play poorly, I thought their big guy Kelly did a good job of establishing his position in a way that Morris was going to get called for a charge if he went any closer to the basket.  Morris was smart enough to realize that and got off a great look. The difference between missing back rim and swishing a shot is so small, Morris knows that and thats why you could see him slapping the ground with his head in his jersey right afterward.

We are in such good shape going forward in late game situations.  We have Morris, a guy who can create his own shot, get to the bucket, and distribute.  We have Hardaway, a cold blooded scorer/jump shooter who can do it in the clutch.  We've got Novak, Smotrycz and Stu (hopefully he will make a 3 sometime) who we can kick the ball to.  We've got Morgan who has a good nose for the basket and can finish inside.  This is a really complete team that was battle tested this year, brings back the same team next year, and the talent, depth, and experience factors only improve us. We are in a good situation people.  

Well, in the words of our

Well, in the words of our favorite basketball assistant coach...

 

 Bacari Alexander 
 
Now it's time to unlace my shoes again for another football season!! Shoelace for president!! HALOL!!
Who is the guy on our team

Who is the guy on our team best suited to stepping on Kyrie's big toe? I imagine McLimans has a big foot.

why do I even need to speak

why do I even need to speak when we have Bacari to do it for us?

 

 Bacari Alexander 
 
Is it ironic that you have to fight a Blue DEVIL on a Sunday? What an interesting storyline. I packed my bible! HALOL!!!!!!!
Do I need a specific software

Do I need a specific software to watch the torrent once I download it? I've never been able to get this to work.

EVERYONE will be watching us,

EVERYONE will be watching us, no other games on at that time slot...let's hang with them. 

In response to this quitting

In response to this quitting crap, teams quit when it is obvious to them that they cannot win the game even at their best.  In my opinion, however you slice it, we hung with them early and demoralized them early and often in the 2nd half and they had no answer.  8/9 games are supposed to be relatively even, we won by 30.  Bring it on Duke. 

 


 Bacari Alexander 
 
Calling all TarHeel fans to bring an additional MaiZe shirt on Sunday. HALOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Blue!
I'm ok with all the focus

I'm ok with all the focus being on Bruce Pearl, Kyrie Irving, etc.  If we beat Duke, we'll have enough attention for a lifetime.  For now, let's just keep doing what we're doing.

Darius Morris didn't shoot well, Hardaway didn't play a ton of minutes, neither did Morgan, and we STILL did as well as we did today.  That makes me feel pretty good.

Highlight of the game was

Highlight of the game was probably Vogrich stealing the ball and finishing over 2 people late in the first half; that's when I started to believe we were going to win the game.  The 2nd half was amazing as a whole though, HALOL

Gottlieb thought we should

Gottlieb thought we should have been amongst the last 4 teams in, and not an 8 seed, and he thinks us beating Tennessee doesn't change that.  Whatever, who cares, we won, onto Duke. 

We are in some serious

We are in some serious trouble, we can't stop fouling them and now 2 of our 3 best players are on the bench with fouls.  They are calling some ticky tack stuff out there on us.

Surviving the half without

Surviving the half without Morgan is going to be brutal.  We need someone who can finish inside right now. 

I don't think it was a

I don't think it was a defensive breakdown so much as it's just a bad matchup for them and they had no answer for Fernandez all day.  They stopped his initial look, so he used his pivot, stepped through and took an awkward leaning jumper and drained it.  I think it was ok defense, just better offense and a clutch play by Temple.  Completely irrelevant obviously, I just thought "choke" was a little harsh. 

How did PSU choke? They lost

How did PSU choke? They lost one of their better players early in the 2nd half and the game with Temple was back and forth the whole way, they got beat by an awkward leaning buzzer beater.  Devastating loss, but I think they played well.

MIchigan State on the other hand...pretty pathetic performance for 30 minutes of that game, really sums up their season. 

I'm not sure anyone's

I'm not sure anyone's laughing anymore...

I also have "Have a Blessed

I also have "Have a Blessed Bracket! jt"

Doing Things the Hardaway? 

Doing Things the Hardaway? 

Out of curiosity, how many of

Out of curiosity, how many of those Duke students "putting in 4 years at the school they love" would still stay 4 years if they had the opportunity to be a #1 pick in the NBA draft and to be signed to a guaranteed multimillion deal at age 20?? No hypocrisy at all in that communication by Jennifer Taylor...

I don't know why Forde wasted

I don't know why Forde wasted his time.  He could have just confined it to best and worst case scenarios on the court, while sparing us Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway bolting for the NBA and Beilein leaving his job. 

Barlow plays 20 minutes a

Barlow plays 20 minutes a game, I wouldn't call this an insignificant loss by any means. 

This particular 8th seed is

This particular 8th seed is cursed if we have to see Kyrie Irving back in the 2nd round....

The minutes after the timeout

The minutes after the timeout call on the documentary ,especially the media conference, were just so brutal to watch.  Webber is just a broken and defeated kid at that point and is sitting there on a grand stage having to answer these ridiculous questions.  Even then he recognizes "I probably cost my team the game." Even despite all the mistakes he's made after, my heart still breaks for him and that team when I watch/relive that moment. 

You know, the natural

You know, the natural inclination is for everyone to say we are mismatched against any opponent.  We played against Minnesota and Illinois, of course they have too much size, we won't be able to get shots off, we'll lose.  Oh wait, we didn't.  Beilein is comfortable playing mismatches on the court and just has faith in his guys and his coaching enough to overcome those mismatches.  Against Illinois, the fact that Mike davis had to cover Novak got him so many more open looks than he had been getting in "normal" matchups the previous several games.

So, when I look at Tennessee, even though I don't like their height and length, the fact is we have performed far more consistently and far closer to potential than they have.  I think that counts for something, and I think we'll be ready to go on Friday. 

That's why you play 40

That's why you play 40 minutes.  Teams should finish out the game by executing against press defense and making free throws to keep teams out of it.  That's a part of organized basketball; your system would effectively end the game with 3 minutes left if the deficit is any more than 8.