and... i like them? I think I like them.
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|9 hours 30 min ago||6 more months of having to||
6 more months of having to check his twitter background 8 times a day! ???
OH CRUEL WORLD!!??!!!!!!
|10 hours 16 min ago||Agree 100%. Expectations by||
Agree 100%. Expectations by the fanbase are getting out of line with the 3 stars - we just sent THJ to the league, had a NPOY and had "Caris" with the last three guys who are obvious. That said Burke was a 4 in some circles, not a 3....THJ had some nice genes, and Caris was lightning in a bottle. Expectations that anybody we now pick up who is not top 100 is going to be a front line starter and/or NBA guy are getting a bit out of touch. The staff is eventually going to misread someone and/or someone just won't develop. Or some guys just hit ceilings that will have nothing to do with the staff.
These late additions are usually there for a reason - other than Myles Turner. Dawkins dad for exampls coaches at Stanford - where is the offer by his dad? Stanford is a BCS program which went a few rounds in the tourney. Where is the offer from the man who knows Dawkins better than anyone on the planet? Same for any of these late additions.
I did a similar post to this a few days ago with only 2014 and without Mitch since it was "worst case" but not sure how the heck anyone can project 2015-2016. We are not in front for both of those Jalens, in fact we might not be for either. A year ago no one thought Nik was going to the league - he was a 3 year player in our minds. A year from now who knows if Zak Irvin will be in the same boat - I think he might. It is hard enough to project 1 year our versus 2 esp with a team full of underclassmen.
|10 hours 36 min ago||Thanks Brandon - I was one of||
Thanks Brandon - I was one of the readers requesting this. With 200 or so offers a year by major programs this sort of thing helps to narrow it done even if we only get a few.
|18 hours 37 min ago||well that escalated...||
well that escalated...
|1 day 2 hours ago||Lucas was a 4 star, per||
Lucas was a 4 star, per Rivals #38 in the country and the 6th PG. So consider him a Chatman level recruit.
Appling was a HS All American of which I believe there are about 24? 4 star also #38 in the nation.
Point is Izzo has received a boatload of recruits in the 10-50 area, and you'd think a lot more of them would have healthy NBA careers. Between Randolph/Richardson and Gary Harris I think you basically had Shannon Brown and Alan Anderson?
I don't know where a "5" star ends and "4" star begins in the basketball world - I would assume somwhere around 30 since Irvin was a 5 star as the #25 recruit. So he was barely a 5 star at Rivals rank #25 where Lucas and Appling barely missed being a 4 star.
And as we all know, recruiting rankings are not science i.e. slot 22 is better than slot 29 because experts say so - the difference between Lucas/Appling at #38 in the country and Irvin at #25 in the country is some people's opinion and a sliver of talent.
|1 day 3 hours ago||Izzo's main successes||
Izzo's main successes individually were 10ish years ago with Zach Randolph and Jason Richardson - both elite NBA bodies. Since then I think the high point was Shannon Brown and now Gary Harris. Harris came in ready to be a NBA player - he looked like the same guy in game 4 of his freshman year as game 25 of his sophomore year. His shooting regressed year over year both in total FG% and 3 PG% even with Payne taking away massive attention. So even Harris is not a "success story" in development - he was a guy that was just ready to be a NBA player and would have been a one and done if his shoulders hadnt popped out every 3rd game in his freshman year.
Draymond Green would probably be Izzo's best case of "development" - but that again took 4 years and he was a 4 star.
If you want to be a cynic about Izzo you can make the case he has taken a lot of 4 and 5 star talent, not developed them quickly, and benefited from playing a lot of 4-5 star guys in their JR and SR years playing against NCAA competition where those players' peers were in the NBA 2 years earlier. So in a way it is brilliant I guess - but it seems to be reaping itself now when more players of that caliber he used to get want to be one and done or two and done.
|1 day 3 hours ago||Oh big time. There are like||
Oh big time. There are like 10 guys in the NCAA who match up with a 5 star senior big man like Payne...and most are 19 years old and not in the Big 10.
Honestly if Dawson left that group is hot garbage outside of Valentine. Trice is a good shooter but UConn pressed him into oblivion. We dont play that style but they could not get into their offense for 15-20 seconds with Appling out. Costello is just a "he is there" big man. Kaminsky can shoot well it seems but that is all he does.
Looking ahead a year they will be very young and we'll see how Izzo "develops". He has been loaded with upperclassmen for a long time and the following year (2015-2016) seems the first he will have to deal with what Beilein is doing annually. They have a top 100 PG coming in and a good player out of Ohio, but from here unless recruiting changes quickly he is replacing HS All Americans with "plucky 3 stars" by and large.
|1 day 4 hours ago||5 star HS All American -||
5 star HS All American - probably could have left after his frosh year and been drafted higher than this year when he flashed huge athleticism. Has not developed a shot outside of 5 feet, nor any handle. Great athleticism in the NCAA level but when facing future NBA players at Kentucky, UConn, or UNC he was muzzled. He stands out against non NBA type players though due to sheer athleticism and now he will be a 22 year old playing a lot of 18-19 year olds.
He was projected mid to late 2nd, so not sure why many thought he was declaring. Other than he has a child. He is a European type talent right now - not skilled enough to do much damage at the 3, and kinda small for a NBA 4, bit of a tweener. Could be a defensive type of stopper though for a good NBA team.
Will create a very experienced MSU lineup next year
5 - JR Costello, 4 - SR Dawson, 3 - JR Valentine, 2 - Open (maybe Alvin Elvis dude), 1 - SR Trice
Offense will run through Valentine as he is the only guy who can create his own shot.
|1 day 4 hours ago||Excited to see who Beilein is||
Excited to see who Beilein is targeting in out years. We are going to go potentially from a wealth of 2/3s to a dearth in 12 months if (when) Caris goes and if Irvin explodes.
I am sure even Beilein is surprised by how quickly these dudes have progressed. Now the coaching staff has to cast a wider net each year because not only does it need to account for players who will be graduated (which I believe this year will be zero) opening up scholarships but they should be accounting for 1-2 early entrees a year now too, due to their success. So if they normally start targetting 12 kids to fill open holes 3-4 years down the road, they probably need to up that to 16-18.
Anyhow, these are first world problems. Like many I am confused some on GR3 as he could have vaulted up the draft board in 2015 to the low 10s, with a steady, no disappearing 16 ppg year but kid played 2 years out of position and from comments was frustrated.
As a fan it is frustrating because just when you get attached to them they are already going. But for Burke, Nik, and to a lesser degree THJ these 3 of 4 are no brainers. (with THJ he was not as high of a prospect but there was not much more I could see him adding to his game in college to move up higher in the draft). GR3 is the only 1 of the 4 you question so what can you do - when kids are ready they are going to go nowadays.
|1 day 5 hours ago||Congrats to you 2. Thanks||
Congrats to you 2. Thanks for helping the progam progress to top status. Going to go down as one of the top few classes in UM history.
|1 day 8 hours ago||Yes I agree. I'd put our||
Yes I agree. I'd put our starters up there with (almost) anyone if Mitch comes back - potential All Americans at center and SG; both juniors, offensively gifted stretch 4, a PG ready to make the freshman to soph jump, and a sick outside shooter SF who is ready to take the "not just a shooter" reign. The bench is not great with that squad but the starters would have the potential to be pretty fantastic.
|1 day 8 hours ago||Yes this last recruiting||
Yes this last recruiting cycle was a bit disappointing - we had some high profile misses but the higher up the food chain you go the more competition. Everyone points to Irvin and GR3 but those were guys identified very early as 3 star-ish type guys who exploded later. We were not trying to beat off Self, Coach K, Calipari, et al. Mitch was probably the only guy who truly was a national recruit early that we landed.
I think from the comments in MAAR's story at UMHoops the player development aspect is obvious now. But the recruiting cycle is quite long in bball - sometimes they get started in the 8th/9th grade nowadays. That said I don't know what more Beilein can show to a kid now - he has two elite 8s or better back to back, two conference championships in three years, nice facilties, and a plethora of NBA early entrees. If you want to win and be developed ... and go to one of the best academic schools in the BCS conferences, I mean now we are at the point we can offer you all of that.
But these players have to look through the haze of UK, Kansas, UNC etc to see it. Blackmon esp bugs me because he is going to Indiana which is to bball what UM is to football - a stodgy name living off its brand more than current results. But I guess I am hypocritical in booing him for choosing Indiana for those reasons while cheering UM for getting recruits for the same reasons.
Bottom line - kids please look at what we have to offer - essentially its everything you could ask for with this staff.
|1 day 8 hours ago||Exactly how I feel - sad we||
Exactly how I feel - sad we stand to lose about 70% of the NC game bball team in 12 months and I feel more confident about what remains of that team and new guys ....than a football team returning 80% of its players from 6 months ago.
We'll take a dip in record next year with bball but I am confident we will maximize talent which is all you can ask any coach.
|1 day 8 hours ago||Someone like MAAR it makes||
Someone like MAAR it makes sense to get him "old for his class" because the depth of the team is short, and the wings/guards are going to be light next year when/if Caris goes (and even more so if Irvin explodes and goes) in 2015. So we need some guys ready to go in a year. This is where guys like a James Blackmon would have helped. Looking ahead 12 months we could be going from a lack of depth at the 4/5 (if Mitch goes) to a lack of depth at the 2/3 very quickly if Irvin and LeVert both declare.
The roster turnover is getting a bit egregious at this point.
|1 day 20 hours ago||That is actually an||
That is actually an interesting comparison - I am not really going by position but trying to draw some vague parallels.
Morris did have a pretty darn good year shooting 49% from the field as a guard, ave 15 ppg in 35 minutes. That's basically LeVert's role in 14-15. Similar defenders.
THJ was second on that team with 13.9 ppg in 31 minutes. Basically that would have to be Irvin's role. We all presume he makes the jump btw fresh and sophomore but he has to do it. I think he can. Think THJ was a better defender at that point.
JMo you explained well ... played 24 minutes. That is a bit above what I projected for Donnal at around 22 minutes, but in the same vicinity. I don't think any of us are worried about matching offense - seems reasonable to get 8-9 pts a game in 22-24 minutes for a gifted offensive basketball player. I have never seen Donnal so can't judge his defense vs JMo back then who was "decent".
Novak - well that was his junior year and I don't care about his height as much, guy was playing PF out there at times. Asking a freshman to replicate his role is difficult, esp defensively. He played 35 minutes a nite, and had 8.9 pts. So I guess we can throw Chatman as his parallel - who is a mystery to us all right now. I will assume he is going to play less than Novak did - maybe upper 20s and score about the same but I doubt he matches the defense.... even if he has more length.
So that leaves Stu Douglass and his 30 min a game and 7.1 vs Walton Jr who should score more and play about the same. Both struggled some on defense.
Your main 2 bench guys were Smot and Vogrich, which would be paralled with Spike and Bielfeldt. Together 32 minutes a nite and 10 pts. I dont know if we are going to get that many minutes out of Spike and Max... probably could get about the same production. None of these 4 guys are defensive warriors but the 10-11 guys are taller.
Then your 8th man is little used Horford at 7 min and 2 pts - which probably is what you are going to look to get out of Doyle. I wrote above about 8 minutes a game. I expect Doyle to be more physical than Jon who was never physical and they are the same height.
So yes overall - I think you gain a bt of length in Chatman v Novak but lose experience, grit, leadership, and defense. And you lose some minutes on the bench by the nature that Spike is parked behind Walton and doubtful they play side by side for much of the year. I think that team of 10-11 will defend better and rebound better. This 13-14 team has a better chance to produce offense.
All in all a decent parallel and I think coincides with what was said above. Not many of us are worried about the offense - its the defense, rebounding, and just some intangibles such as playing in Breslin or Assembly Hall etc. Technically that squad finished 4th in conf but there was a 4 way tie for 4th place so aside from tiebreakers it was anywhere from 4th to 7th which is basically what i wrote in OP - I see it as a 4th thru 6th place team and there are any number of teams behind Wisconsin that could finish anywhere from 2nd to 8th, us included. Thanks for the thoughts.
|1 day 23 hours ago||Good point. Similar size to||
Good point. Similar size to Donnal.
|1 day 23 hours ago||Meh. Screw his dad. I am||
Meh. Screw his dad. I am more of an unnamed sources kind of guy.
|1 day 23 hours ago||Title fixed. Butthurt level||
Title fixed. Butthurt level towards Urbz adjusted down from level 5 to level 3.
|1 day 23 hours ago||At this pace, just wait until||
At this pace, just wait until his senior year.
|1 day 23 hours ago||I am talking about his reign||
I am talking about his reign as a position coach (OL) in the early to mid 90s. I take no responsibility for DeBord after that ;)
|1 day 23 hours ago||Donnal is the stretch 4||
Donnal is the stretch 4 Beilein has not had yet at UM. 6'9 with range. So Mitch at 5, Donnal at 4, Irvin at natural 3, and backcourt is Caris and Walton Jr. That would be a very promising starting lineup in my eyes with nice length at every position but PG. Chatman can backup anything from 2-4 in an Irvin 2013 type role. I guess Caris and Irvin are sort of interchangeable at 2 v 3. Prefer neither to be in the 4 but when GR3 went out I think it was Irvin who went to 4 for small periods (hence why I think him sliding to 3, and Caris to 2 makes more sense but 2 v 3 in he Beilein offense doesnt matter much)
Goodman also says he is wresting with decision so whatever he told Horford obviously he is having second thoughts. That doesn't imply he told him he would leave or he would stay - it just implies whatever he told Horford, he is now not so sure of.
Mitch McGary may not make announcement tomorrow. Sources told ESPN that he is still wrestling with decision.
|1 day 23 hours ago||It is going to be a very||
It is going to be a very interesting first 6 games. Miami (OH) might be one of the 5 worst teams in CFB and App State is a shell of the team that came in here 6 years ago or whatever it was.
Utah and Minnesota will determine the fate of this year and people will say "WHAT" when I say that. Utah is not a good team but did find a way to beat Stanford at home. They are better than Akron or UConn I imagine. If they waltz into Michigan Stadium versus a 2-1 UM (assumption is we lose to ND with this crazy young offense) and beat us, we are 2-2 with an improved Minnesota coming in. Those 2 games essentially mark the season because all these calls for 8-4 assume the 3 rival losses and then 1 game you let slip away somewhere else. It does not assume losses to Utah or Minn at home. So we'll know how hot Hoke's seat gets very early.
If we exit Sept 3-2, with two of those wins versus Hapless State and Hapless (OH), it doesn't look promising. We go on the road vs a bad Rutgers team right after that but ...UConn.
|2 days 4 min ago||Agreed. And whoever followed||
Agreed. And whoever followed him in the 90s. I think DeBord was the OL coach for 5 years or so. Gosh who wouldda thunk we'd be pining for Mike DeBord.
Damn - we used to be Wisconsin before Wisconsin was Wisconsin on the OL. OL was our bread and butter along with WRs for 15-20 years. It is amazing what has happened here.
I am not one to recycle old players just because they are "Michigan Men" but Backus Hutchinson Jansen et al ...please...
|2 days 9 min ago||That works really well in the||
That works really well in the stock market. Not so sure in sports ... i.e. the Detroit Pistons board has been extremely down for years.... and proven accurate.
|2 days 11 min ago||You said it a lot more||
You said it a lot more diplomatically than me. All I had was WTF.
"First, it appears that Funk himself had to learn a lot of new stuff (he watched tapes from Alabama)."
|2 days 14 min ago||Or it is just a really nice||
Or it is just a really nice place to visit in mid April while you make a decision. I'd be headed to USC, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona State, Arizona, and Pepperdine ;) if it was me.
|2 days 50 min ago||Interesting that 1st rounders||
Interesting that 1st rounders like Montrezl Harrell & Willie Cauley-Stein are staying put - especially since big men are in such demand. Coach K is probably steamed Cauley-Stein is staying since he had that spot slotted for a top 10 recruit.
|2 days 2 hours ago||Thanks you are 100% correct,||
Thanks you are 100% correct, brain fart. will edit.
|2 days 2 hours ago||Yep! I wish our resident||
Yep! I wish our resident Batman would show up and call Jordan on the batphone and tell him to coach a bit worse. A 3 year window on each player would do fine Coach J!
|2 days 2 hours ago||He is taking his talents to||
SPOILER ALERT: He is taking his talents to Zingerman's.....