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- 2017 = 10
- 2016 = 9
- 2017 = 8
- 2016 = 14
- Kalis has been more bad than good for four years and has no positional flexibility. I'm not shocked that he didn't get an invite. He would have had to blow people away at the post-season bowl games to get one.
- Braden getting an invite over Magnuson is interesting. Mags was better this past season, but nothing to write home about. I suspect that Braden interests people because he's played G/T and is a giant human being. Still not sure if any of the three OL actually get drafted though.
- As much as I like Thomas, I'm not shocked he didn't make the cut either. He really only started for one year and didn't do much that jumped off the page to NFL scouts. He's a coverage safety who isn't very big and doesn't have a lot of stats to back him up.
- No one should be surprised that Godin didn't make it. Or Kenny Allen.
- Peppers (dropping on boards, but will dominate at combine)
- Butt (hate that he got hurt in the bowl game)
---- that's the for sure list for me, the rest are wildcards ----
---- this is where I think the drafting likelihood ends ----
$$$$$ None of the leadership in college athletics or the B10 specifically will do anything unless it makes them money. Show them how to make a ton of money off of this idea and they might listen. The three games at the end are a good start.
While your method uses data and attempts to create a balanced schedule, is there a v1.0 of this method that at least makes the scheduling more flexible? Maybe there are two flex weeks per season that are based on records or something?
- I think the simple approach of killing meaningless divisions and setting up 1-3 relevant games on championship weekend is a good start.
- Soloman is their #11 recruit, which is higher than anyone Michigan has in their cass right now (DPJ = #22). Getting him would certainly boost us further.
- Willie Gay is their #51 recruit, which would be our highest ranked recruit besides DPJ or Soloman in the class. (Ambry Thomas = #56)
- Isaih Wilson is #42. I do think the Michigan coaches thought they had him up until the end when he surprised with the Georgia pick. For us he'd be one of our top 3 recruits. For Georgia he is also their 3rd as they hold the #25 and #28 guys also.
- Tedarell Slaton is #31 somewhat to my surprised. I never really thought he was ranked high enough to be one of our best recruits.
- Austin Jackson, who I wish we had a chance at, is #30.
- Jay Tufele is also way up there at #36.
- Depth chart at safety
- These days you essentially play 5-6 DBs at all times with Viper and slot-corner
- Don Brown likes him
- No one thought much of Jeremy Clark....he did pretty darn ok.
- No one thought much of Josh Metellus....he was Peppers back-up as a freshman
- Guys with a chip on their shoulder (especially with the family pedigree of his) are the type of guys you want to fill out your depth chart and to help on special teams.
- Peppers - 1st round
- Taco - 1st round
- Wormley - early rounds
- Lewis - early rounds
- Butt - early rounds
- Glasgow - late rounds
- Stribling - late rounds
- Darboh - late rounds
- Mags - late rounds
- Smith - late rounds
- Chesson - has a shot
- Gedeon - has a shot
- Kalis - has a shot
- Thomas - has a shot
- Hill - has a shot
- Braden - unllikely, not impossibe
- Clark - unlikely, not impossible
- Allen - highly unlikely
- In-bounds plays - There were 2-3 that were awful and that blame falls on the players and the coaches.
- Missed threes - Those were wide open shots that he's been making at 50% this year. I would have preferred that he take it to the post and try to get another foul on Happ, but I can't fault him for taking a wide open shot.
- Donnal - What just kills me about his performance is that his only job is to stay in his lane. Michigan doesnt need him to score 20 or play above the rim. They need him to bring energy off the bench and play fundamentally sound. He did neither. He was hot garbage the whole night, which hurt even more because the crappy whistles forced Wilson and Wagner to the bench.
- Wagner defense - I thought it was one of his better performances on the defensive end. It is impossible to know how much his late performance was affected by the cheap fouls he was called for, the way the refs changed the way the game was being called, and having to play against a great Happ with four fouls.
- Irvin was having a great game, though he had slowed down once Wilson was forced to the bench (again, stupid refs/fouls) and Hayes started guarding him. Likewise, we can't bitch about Irvin's late-game blunders one game and be pissed that he didn't get the late-game shots in this game.
- Carr - Essentially stopped recruiting both quality and especially quantity late in his career.
- RichRod - For all of the negatives, it is hard to knock his OL development. I'm not sure how I missed Omameh in the draft list, but for a brief moment RichRod had a good line. But he screwed up recruiting quantity and had some early washouts.
- Hoke - He had the big class trying to make up for RichRod, but they didn't ever develop as much as we had hoped. Missing on Fisher and passing on Pocic hurt.
- Harbaugh - The jury is still out. They weren't able to do much with Hoke's players and recruiting so far has been short of ideal since they have yet to sign a true LT and the classes have been full of several projects. Bredeson, Onwenu, Ruiz, and Fillagia give us hope, but we haven't seen anything on the field yet to get us exctied.
- Dreisbach looked really good on that run. Fast, good ball security, some moves, etc. He got lost in the shuffle thanks to an injury and Griese's career, but he got a cup of coffee in the NFL and played for a few years in the AFL. He's now the coach at a powerhouse program in Texas. (link)
- How about Tyrone Butterfied's "intentional" dropped pass in the 1995 Virginia game that set up the classic finish? That was the highlight of his career and he's probably the least reknown player to ever get the #1 jersey.
- Painful to see that Donnal line after his performance last night.
- You ripped on Fargas a little because of his unicorn performance. It always killed me that his career at Michigan scuffled (injury, move to DB, transfer) and then he became a stud at USC and then in the NFL for a while.
- I thought I remembered a Robbie Reid game where he scored a ton (25pts against Wisconsin), but looking at his stats he actually had a lot of double-digit scoring games in his brief career.
- This doesn't count as a TWO, but deserves mention. In Jon Vaughn's first two games in 1990 (ND & UCLA) he rushed for 491 yards and 3 TDs. Wrap your head around that for a minute. He went on to have a solid full season and declared for the NFL after that.
- Matt Vogrich - against Northern Michigan in the first game of his career he went 5-for-5 from 3 for 15 points. He only broke double digits two more times in his entire career, never coming close to 15 again.
- Jarod Ward had a long and semi-productive career (even though he's known as a bust being the #1 overall recruit during an underperforming era for Fisher). But his best game came as a senior against Indiana when he went for 24-10 and showed you what could have been.
- Performance slips
- Recruiting slips, imperceptably at first with some stars but lacking the core foundation
- Attrition starts popping up at a higher rate for coaches/players
- Attendance wanes
- People stop caring as much
|4 days 15 hours ago||Exactly!||
I realize there's always the risk of getting called for an intentional foul, which refs never call at the end of games when that's exactly what is happening. But I have always wondered why teams don't just start grabbing blatantly before the pass - no time off the clock and pick your shooter.
|5 days 15 hours ago||Misleading Indiana stats||
I love the piece and the data you're using. I even like the proposal of giving DJ some minutes on Happ, as much for the reasons you mention as well as the fact that Happ isn't going to blow past DJ from the perimeter like everyone else does.
However, your Indiana stats are very misleading. Michigan double-teamed Bryant every time he had the ball and he went 3-8. They did *NOT* double team Davis until his last possession, which happened to be the one on which he committed a turnover. I remember multiple times when Davis was scoring at will in the post that the announcers suggested Michigan should copy their defensive approach from Bryant to limit Davis.....and then they did with good results.
The difference with using a double with Wisconsin is that I think they are overall more dangerous from the outside across the board. But Northwestern often mixed in double teams on Happ as well and clearly it worked for the most part.
The real key to the game is keeping Wilson/Wagner out of the dumb fouls most Big Ten refs calll at times - including when we lost by 4 in the Troll Center.
|5 days 16 hours ago||Highly unlikely....||
It would be very difficult for any college to sustain that level of success over a prolonged period of time. But if any schools were going to come close, it would be Alabama and Ohio State. Checking their data for just the past two years....
So they are close. You have to figure that Michigan won't come close to 14 next year if nothing else just because we have a small senior class and are about to see the transitional period between Hoke and Harbaugh pass through. Optimistically you're looking at Hurst, McCray, Cole, and Isaac. Anyone else would have to come out of no where and/or be an early entry canddidate.
|5 days 17 hours ago||Interesting notes.....||
With all that being said, remember that Rudock and Wilson weren't on the invite list for 2016 (link) and still made it into the league. Same for Fitz a couple years ago.
Michigan's record for most draft picks in a single year was 10 (a long time ago). They look to shatter that record if even most of these guys get picked.
|6 days 18 hours ago||Don't forget another ref call....||
I will agree that it was the most "balanced" (notice I did say good) game of officiating I've seen on the road for Michigan in a while. Michigan got a few calls their way and the bone-headed stupiid calls on Wagner happened late enough that it didn't force him to the bench.
But the one that I didn't see mentioned yet was when he was guarding Bryant on the elbow, Bryant rolls his ankle while shuffling his feet, and they somehow call Wagner for a foul without touching him. Between that, the Wagner moving screen (while holding the ball), and DJ getting elbowed in the face.....it just about evens out the bounce off the foot and possible goaltend.
Why didn't they review the ball off the foot since it seems like they review everything these days?
|6 days 23 hours ago||All Star games =/= Combine||
As much as I'd like to see all 17 of those guys at the combine (and what about Kenny Allen?!?1), I don't think those four you listed will get the invite. Being in those all-star games means that they're trying to decide if you're worthy of an invite or being drafted.
Here's who I think will get invited/drafted:
Remember that Michigan's record is having 10 guys drafted in a single year, done twice in the 1970s.
|1 week 20 hours ago||No - the run comes to an end.....||
The NBA is now a PG league and is dominated by dynamic scoring PGs. As many have said, Trey Burke is clinging to a role as a back-up and Yogi just got his first ever NBA contract - both were far better than Walton. Darius Morris flamed out quickly. Michael Carter Williams is barely clinging to a bench role.
I'm sure that Walton could play overseas for a few years because of his shooting, ball handling, and rebounding. But this year will end Beilein's run of putting guys in the NBA after getting 7 guys drafted over the past few years. I think we'll have to see if Wagner and/or Wilson get the call in another year or two. Or if you're really an optimist then you're hoping that our Kentucky transfer is so good next year that he leads us to glory and goes pro.
|1 week 4 days ago||Why not in with 5-stars in 2018?||
Is there an explanation for why Michigan isn't at least in contention for more 5 stars this early in the cycle? It seems like we'd at least appear on their top lists or would have hosted a couple for a visit. It is pretty difficult to get engaged with a highly ranked player later in the cycle, so I'm surprised there aren't at least a few names out there.
|1 week 4 days ago||Good idea.....tough sell||
I love the idea behind this and I sincerely hope there is some smart, young intern at the B10 offices who is trying to figure out how to pitch this up the food chain. But you have to remember that old conservative rich guys run things and they tend to be resistant to change and prefer gradual things. So here are some ideas for you to think about:
|2 weeks 14 hours ago||Irvin & Walton.....not a dynamic duo||
It is very frustrating that we can probably count on one hand the number of times that both Walton and Irvin were on a hot streak at the same time.....over a four year career for both. I like both players a lot and I do think they could have been parts of great teams. But it is clear that they can't be the #1-2 options for great teams. They are better as support pieces with an alpha dog in the mix that has been missing with the early departures and Caris being hurt.
I've defended them and Beilein for the past three years, but my support is definitely waning after so many close losses this year. Just think of how many games they were in late that would have made this season a success. Ouch.
|2 weeks 17 hours ago||QB style||
I don't think you'll ever see Harbaugh recruit a true running QB like Denard that he has to teach how to throw. But I do think he'd love to have a QB like Gardner who can run and throw. I also think he likes the idea of taking one every couple of classes to mix into the competition with pocket passers. Since "throwing QB who can run" is such a rare thing, I doubt you see it much.
Let's take a moment to step back again and pour one out for Devin again. Had he been born a couple years earlier he would have played for spread-guru RichRod. Had he been born a couple years later he could have played for QB guru Harbaugh. Instead he got sucked into the Hoke offensive awkwardness.
|2 weeks 17 hours ago||Individuals not class rankings||
I am not even worried about the class rank because it is hard to get in the top 10 with a small class. I'm mildly curious at the lack of star power listed by Brian, but it is far too early to fret much. The one thing to keep an eye on is the on-field result of the season.
On the one hand, Harbaugh can brag about putting an all-time record for Michigan into the NFL draft this year (current most is 10 and there are easily 12-15 names that might get called this season). On the other hand, all of those depatures means that Michigan might go 9-3 or 8-4 and be a non-factor in the league or nation. That hurts recruiting at times, especially when you want to compete with OSU/Bama.
I'm not worried because the last two classes and the coaching should off-set any concern, but it is good to prepare ourselves for a modest 2018 class.
|2 weeks 17 hours ago||2 TE only||
As much as TE will be a need (especially if Asiasi leaves), I just can't see them taking 3 spots out of 16-20 for that position. They still have Bunting, Wheatley, hopefully Asiasi, McKeon, Eubanks, and Gentry (if you count him as a TE).
You have to take QB, RB, WR, 4xOL, and 2xTE. That's 9. Then you take a kid you like at RB, WR, TE, or ATH and see what you get. That gets you to 10 spots with about 10 more for D. We'll see when the D post goes up how many needs there are, but you probablly need 3 DL, 2 LB, and 3 DB.
|2 weeks 4 days ago||David Terrell||
I realize that your first bullet really means "DPJ is our highest ranked WR since 2002" based on your data. But Terrell in 2001 was probably higher than DPJ.
|2 weeks 6 days ago||Scout rankings||
To put in perspective how things could have or would have played out with Scout.....
While it does feel like a crawl to the finish at times, we still have a chance to get two recruits this week that would be our #1 and #3 ranked players in the class according to Scout. And as for catching some of the other big-boy classes, you can see with that list how close we came to being right there with them.
|3 weeks 17 hours ago||Ifeatu Melifonwu||
The reason to not be excited by this guy is that his recruiting rankings are modest and he plays in an area that isn't known for a high level talent pool.
The reasons to be excited for him are:
|3 weeks 3 days ago||Will this draft set a record for Michigan?||
Back in the 1970s Michigan had 10 players drafted twice (link). It will be interesting to see what the number is this year with all of this draft hype building:
Let's face it, we're not going to see that many guys drafted. But there are probably 8 guys sure to get picked and another handful that have a decent chance.
|3 weeks 4 days ago||Omameh & Lewan||
Another data point worth mentioning and leaving up to the reader to interpret is the nosedive that Omameh took when Frey left. Any system change is going to affect players, sometimes in a negative way. And Hoke's systsem was awkward at best. But as a junior Omameh was getting highlights on MGoBlog for rag-dolling NFL prospects at the LB position. As a senior we were ready for him to be benched.
Likewise I remember Lewan as a junior being awesome and as a senior living on his reputation a little more, though he was still great aside from some dumb penalties.
|3 weeks 4 days ago||15 years is correct||
In 2001 Michigan had three linemen drafted in the first 45 picks, all of whom went on to long and productive NFL careers. In the 15 years since then we have just barely matched the same number of picks an no one (yet) has matched their careers.
The best OL we've put in the NFL since 2001 are probably Long (good, injury plagued) or the guys Brian mentioned as being tutored by Frey.
|4 weeks 1 day ago||Crawford||
Might as well include ALL of the Wolverines since Crawford is the only other one at this point....and the most successful.
Sad that McGary wasn't able to stay healthy and out of trouble.
|4 weeks 3 days ago||JBB & Runyan||
As for Runyan, I would LOVE for him to fight his way into the conversation. I think guys like him with a bit of a chip on his shoulder can be the kind of guy that makes an impact in his later years on a team. I think the issue is that he was so undersized as a recruit that it would be a surprise to see him anywhere other than C or G - and he still is probably not ready for those yet.
With JBB there will likely be every opportunity for him to earn the start at one of the tackle spots. If you squint hard enough the one bright side of having so many spots up for grabs is that there will be an all out competition for them and no one (aside from Cole) has earned anything yet. JBB has the most experience of the guys we're talking about, even if it wasn't much and was unimpressive. He, Ulizio, Runyan, the incoming freshmen, and even the walk-ons will get their shot. Let's hope a couple of guys sieze it and the coaches work some magic so that this isn't what holds us back in 2017.
|4 weeks 3 days ago||Compare vs. Wilson||
Thanks for the insight. Your description sounds somewhat like DJ Wilson coming out of high school and into his early career. How would you compare them?
|4 weeks 3 days ago||VERY intrigued by this||
I posted a Diary yesterday about the state of the OL and in it you can see what Frey did with guys like Omameh, Lewan, Schofield, and Molk under RichRod. It was arguably our least painful position group during a brief year or two there - which isn't something you can say about any other year out of the last 15.
He did well at Indiana and WVU as well. I like his Florida ties. I like that he's at least familiar with Michigan. I like that he has a ton of experience coaching our worst position group right now. I like that he knows Wilson's offense for games against OSU. Hell, I even like mending the fence to the RichRod era a little rather than pretending it didn't happen.
The one thing I can't figure out is how they'd mesh his zone-style with what Drevno/Harbaugh like to run. Likewise, if you take that position group away from Drevno isn't that a big demotion when you consider he's also sharing OC duties with another NFL guy?
|4 weeks 3 days ago||Ouch....||
I think it is fair to point ouf that this was not one of Wagner's better games, especially considering how well he has played most of this season. I don't think it is as fair to be as negative as you were. Here are my thoughts:
|4 weeks 3 days ago||Harbaugh part 2||
One commenter mentioned that Harbaugh contributed to the loss of Bosch and LTT. In some ways that's true I suppose, but I don't mind having a coach with a good morale compass. In Bosch's case he essentially suspended him for a year and despite that the two of them couldn't come to an agreement of what it would take for him to stay on the team. I don't think the LTT story has been finished yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if Harbaugh figures it is best for both parties to have a fresh start.
Not signing either Hamilton or Swenson last year hurt the OT depth, that's for sure.
|4 weeks 3 days ago||Coaching thoughts....||
Building on some of these comments, it is interesting to think about the coaches actions:
|4 weeks 5 days ago||Love this question....||
|4 weeks 6 days ago||Don't add the caveat - Michigan got screwed||
I try hard to avoid the stereotype of being a Michigan fan that whines about the officials, but this was a classic boneheaded ref game. Two of the top teams in the country at avoiding fouls suddenly are saddled with foul trouble? BS.
Michigan takes a lead and control....then their two best players are on the bench. It was impossible to tell what was a foul and what wasn't. The only "make up" call that you might think Michigan got was when Dakich showed Walton pushing off on a drive to the hoop. That NEVER gets called and thus wasn't a missed call in a standard game.
The icing on the cake was that Michigan, despite having to play without two starters in foul trouble and with Walton barely able to walk after getting crushed by Hayes (no call), actually got a steal when they were down 4 and had ~20 seconds left. Only for a ref to make a horrible call on Simpson - just horrible.
Whenever Wisconsin needed a pick-me-up, the refs were there to give it to them. Michigan played well enough to win and got jobbed.
|5 weeks 14 hours ago||Depth is a factor||
One factor affecting things this season is depth. Whether or not this is where Beilein's foul avoidance bias came from decades ago I can't say, but this season he just doesn't have the horses to get into a physical game. He likes a short bench in general, but this year he's only playing 7.5 players in the rotation. I'd like to see Michigan get more physical, but if Watson isn't ready to play, then you don't have a lot of athletic options until next year.
Izzo historically uses a deep bench (even when he probably shouldn't). That helps build some talent but also lets the guys use up fouls and be physical. (here's where you insert a jab about Beilein's recent recruiting.)
Another thing that hurt Michigan more than most teams is the fact that taking charges isn't much of an option anymore. Those "adequate" defenses that helped Michigan win some B1G titles were boosted by guys like Morgan and Novak taking a ton of charges. Those calls are not as likely now.
|5 weeks 15 hours ago||Why a fight?||
Brian impies that Red is hanging on because he wants to. I got the impression that he was asked to because Warde had other things to deal with first. This is a tough situation for anyone, but that's why the AD needs to build a relationship with the coach and then try to step in and handle it. We saw it almost work with Carr, but not quite. The stages:
Carr went though severall of those stages, but 2006 was a spark. He probably would have retired that year if we beat OSU. I think Red has to realize that he can't recruit top kids when he keeps hanging around a year at a time and the program needs a spark. Leave now while he still is in good standing so he can help with the transition.