so much for that
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- I had assumed that Bieldfeldt and/or Donnal would appear on your list. But as it stands, you have 9 players already listed and that's as deep as we went this year and deeper than any other Beilein team.
- I think they'll try to red-shirt Donnal but will do what they did with LeVert and if he is good enough to earn minutes, he'll play.
- I really want to see GR3 stay, but it is so awesome that if he leaves we have Donnal and Bielfeldt waiting in the wings.
- I think Irvin is a poor fit at the PF as compared to GR3, but he's tall enough that they have so much flexibility.
- I think you'll see Spike and Walton play a lot together.
- I wonder if McGary can play that many minutes without getting in foul trouble.
Burke's block - Went from a 3-point lead with the ball and huge momentum swing to a 5-point lead with another foul on our star. http://www.umhoops.com/2013/04/09/photo-gallery-louisville-82-michigan-76-3/
Hancock undercut - the MVP of the game undercuts Morgan for his fourth foul, sending him to the bench. Or, they could have called it on Dieng who was also having a good game and sent him to the bench with his fourth. Instead, they called it on a guy who can't even be seen in the photo from under the hoop and who did not have 3 fouls at the time. This is the one blatant screw up that screams of conspiracy. (looks like this was taken down from the gallery and I don't know how to imbed)
Hancock pump fake - this was a good play by him and a move Stauskas needs to master, but it sent Burke to the bench and was total crap.
GR3 Breakaway - late in the game GR3 got a breakaway for a dunk and Siva slapped the ball out of his hands. The analysts were even raving about how Siva did that twice to stop momentum. The picture I saw of this play shows that Siva got all arm. We got the ball out of bounds instead of two shots and a foul on their star. (Also seemingly removed from the UMHoops gallery but that I snagged first.)
LeVert Rebound - I agree that this was huge and barely mentioned. LeVert may have stepped out anyway, but what Louisville did was dangerous and clinched the game.
- Dieng Goaltend - This was frustrating because it was so obvious. As we were starting out hot and building our lead, Dieng clearly goal-tends on a Hardaway shot and instead of two points they get a break the other way. The impact on the game is reduced because of how early it was, but obvious.
- On April 2nd when the Final Four was set, there were two Big East teams left. Why not take this into account and maybe select Pac-10, SEC, ACC, etc. refs to avoid any suggestion of bias?
- The two areas the Cards exploited in the second half were Siva getting in the lane and rebounding. Who were our players in foul trouble? Burke, who said after the game that he couldn't guard Siva due to fouls, and McGary, who was unable to be aggressive on the boards or play big minutes due to fouls.
- If you asked a Louisville fan which calls they were upset about (there are always some for each team)....what would they say? I think there were a couple potential steals in the first half that were called fouls, but that's all I can think of. I can name probably 6-7 HUGE calls that directly affected the game in Louisville favor. Hell, in the UMHoops photo gallery you can see three of them!
- Blanchard (victim of timing)
- Novak (brought back toughness, the tourny, and a BTT)
- Tarpley - great player, off-court issues
- Old Guys - people long before my time I can't quantify
- Taylor/Traylor - great NBA talents that helped ruin the program
- Crawford - one of best talents ever, only 13 games
- Ricky Green - don't remember him well enough
- Rumeal - famous for title game, solid player
- Current team - someone who plays big tonight maybe?
- Burke - 5% to stay for all the reasons Brian mentioned
- THJ - 40% to stay since he's proven all he can, done the NBA summer camp circuit, and is having a good run in the tourney. The NBA hates seniors and I think THJ is ready to leave.
- GR3 - 70% to stay since I'm hoping the humbling film sessions from most of the conference season will convince him that he's not ready and he could be a star next year.
- McGary - 99% to stay since he's "just a guy" to the NBA right now and seems to love college.
- Stauskas - 99.5% to stay. I add him to the list because he's clearly pretty confident in himself and has NBA potential. I suspect he thinks about it more in his spare time than even McGary does. But he'll probably stay for three years unless he blows up next year when Burke is gone.
- Demens - I think he has a legit shot to get picked up by a team for a tryout, possibly even a late, late round pick. He could be a two-down linebacker and special team player in the right situation.
- Omameh - His issues the last two years lower any expectations, but he has good size and athleticism. I think in a combine-format he'd excel and might get a long look by an NFL team.
- Campbell - Maybe a token mini-camp invite.
- Floyd - I guess if Mundy and Stevie Brown can make it anything is possible....but no.
- Kovacs - The pro-day isn't a place for him to shine unfortunately. The sooner he can get into coaching and work his way up the ladder the better.
- Mealer/Barnum - Good guys, enjoy life after football
- Roh - Not explosive enough for the NFL. Might get a snif for some mini-camps.
- What he says about Drake Johnson is very specific and references actual plays where Mattison got upset that Johnson was able to play well. This seems like something to be optimistic about.
- His comments about Hayes were vanilla and don't offer much either way.
- His attempt to find something positive to say about Rawls indicates there's not much there to be optimistic about.
- I like the Bryant comment.....but I worry that it was based more on his pure size than his skill. This is a fairly generic compliment, but it seems like there's some reason for optimism. The team needs Bryant to be a good player and take one of the guard spots.
- WR - Who is stepping up to get the snaps left by Roundtree?
- RB - Do any of the incumbents look good enough to get snaps?
- OL - Who is playing guard and is Miller clearly the center?
- DL - What does the rotation look like and how do the RS Freshmen fit in (Wormley, Godin, Strobel)?
- DB - What other corners are getting PT without Countess or Floyd? Who is getting in the rotation in Kovacs' spot?
- The guy Beilein hugs is Al Glick, who might be one of the biggest donors we have. Really nice guy, around forever, loves Michigan sports and spends millions on them.
- Couldn't believe they didn't show the elbow to Stauskas. Maybe it was an accident, but I had no idea it was that bad. I want to see a shot of it.....not that CBS probably has footage.
- The turnover by McGary at the end was a total BS call. The ref said he dribbled out of bounds but you could see on the replay that he didn't.
- As for over-the-back I always think MSU does this to us. Payne and Dawson are masters at it and it NEVER gets called. I realize that's a tough call to make if they sky for a board and our guy has cement shoes that it may not be a foul, but it happens all the time against MSU.
- The refs were equally terrible in this one. We got 80% of the charge/block calls like all home teams do in the conference, yet we lost two starters based on how the game was officiated.
- Another classis TV Teddy Valentine moment was when he demonstratively called for an out-of-bounds ball to go to MSU.....only to be immediately overturned by another ref.
- Why Burke can't get any calls going to the rim is impossible to figure out. I don't think they refs missed a lot of them.....but you'd think the POTY candidate would get a few calls. Compare his FT attempts to other great PGs and it isn't even in the same ballpark. Paul, Lawson, Rose, etc. all got to the line a ton.
- Have a quicker hook with GR3 and Stauskas when they look flustered or get beat on D. You only have to sit them for a couple of possessions, but send the message and give them a chance to talk to the coaches. Keep the back-up minutes limited but use them more strategically.
- When Caris comes on the floor, have him defend the other team's point guard. Give Burke a break from that responsibility and maybe let Burke guard someone with a worse handle and maybe pick his pocket. Caris isn't a great defender yet, but just giving the PG a different look and Burke a rest seems to have some value.
- More zone defense for limited possessions just to shake things up. But zone relies on mental strength and that's harder to do with freshmen.
- Quicker hook for players who are struggling (looking at you Stauskas/GR3).
- More 2-post situations against appropriate teams (like MSU). This might also lead to more play from Bielfeldt if he's healthy. He plays hard all the time and is a good rebounder.
- 40% = Defender gets called for a foul, basket counts
- 30% = Defender gets called for a cheap foul because the refs give that call all the time
- 20% = Defender fouls in a way to prevent the basket, two shots
- 10% = Ref decides to give a flagrant because the defender was too rough
|5 days 22 hours ago||Intro needed....||
I love the feature and glad to have it here, especially during the slower summer months for football. I like similar stuff over at UMHoops and it is nice to have the cross-over here. However, since basketball recruiting is a lot different than football I think you need to add an intro to this feature.
I would like to see you walk people through the depth-chart by class (noting possible chaos due to early departures) and then summarize the expected needs for each class by position - much like you'll do for football.
I think it helps to explain the recruiting in basketball a lot better if you are clear about the position the players are expected to play at the college level and how the roster is expected to fill out in the coming years.
|3 weeks 3 days ago||Lewan||
So based on how last night played out, where would have Lewan gone? I'm horribly biased and not well educated on some of the guys, but as good as Fisher is I would have to think that Lewan matches him skill for skill and played a much more difficult schedule during his career.
Would Lewan have gone #1? It seems like he would have been top 7 for sure. The Lions probably draft an OT instead of yet another DE (and one who started 9 games for a mediocre BYU team his entire career).
|3 weeks 6 days ago||The answer is in your post - high usage||
GR3 was a low-usage player this year, which means we can be excited about his potential but nervous about how he's going to create his own shots. Stauskas has shown he can 'be more than a shooter' already and will be called on to be the second ball-handler. I think you're going to see them run more plays for Stauskas to help replace Burke than you're going to see them run plays for GR3.
I think we HOPE that GR3 is the most dynamic and important player, but Stauskas is the known fit into the plans next year.
|3 weeks 6 days ago||Roster make-up||
I agree with some of the comments that we have 5 true post players that could find more time in a 2-big line-up.
However, Beilein has always been about finding ways to get the best 5 guys on the floor at the same time. Hence why GR3 or Novak play the 4 while guys like Bielfeldt or Smotrycz get reduced minutes. So the question you need to ask is who the best guys on the roster are.
Off the top of my head, if I had to rank the 11 guys in terms of impact/importance/talent it would be something like this:
In a 2-post lineup you're stealing the most minutes from the 4, 5, 7, 8 guys in favor of the 6, 9, 10, 11 guys. While I think you'll see more of it, I would tell McGary that he can do all that he needs/wants to do at the 5 position without having a 2-big lineup.
|3 weeks 6 days ago||Responses||
I think you're far more likely to see GR3 play more at the 3 than you are to see McGary at the 4. I can see a scenario where Irvin comes in for the Beilein development plan for athletic tall guys who can shoot and plays more of the 4. In that role he'll be more of a spot up shooter, low usage player, and guy who gets open on cuts to the basket. They can then have GR3 start creating more of his offense and move around more like THJ now that he's more familiar with the offense. I think the 4 spot in a Beilein offense is easier to learn early.
But moving McGary to the 4 spot totally changes the way Beilein's offense work and creates some poor match-ups against most of college basketball teams that only have one true big guy on the floor. I think you'll see it from time to time and more often than this year, but it still seems like an inefficient offense and defense. Besides, in today's NBA I think McGary can play a fair amount of center anyway.
What I would like to see Michigan improve on defense more than running a press and while lacking a true defensive stopper is having a zone defense that they can deploy more confidently. I think being able to switch to a zone for 10-15 minutes per game to confuse an opponent, hide someone with foul trouble, or utilize skill sets different is something that was missing this past year. I also think it fits better with the roster that lacks a lock-down guy or the parts to run an effective press.
|4 weeks 3 days ago||Excellent work||
What I love about this article is that he uses statistics to back up his defense of Burke. But it does so much more than that as well. It also shows why guys like GR3 and McGary should stay in school and shows why GM's are so foolish with their picks sometimes.
What would have been a great addition to his column (if possible) would be to point out how the short guys who didn't get drafted as high were passed over for tall guys that failed. Look at some of the athletic tall guys with potential that didn't turn into stars.
At the PG position this year Michael Carter-Williams versus Burke will be an interesting test case. Will a GM fall in love with the long skinny arms and 6'6" frame of MCW even though he has never played man-to-man defense and can't shoot? Maybe he'll learn those things and do great, becoming a mismatch for other PGs. Burke's "potential" may be more limited because he's probably closer to his ceiling both in height and performance.
|5 weeks 2 days ago||corner backs||
I think there is a 0% chance that we redshirt all of the freshmen corners. Our starters (Countess, Taylor, Avery) are solid, but it is a steep slope beyond them. It didn't sound like Richardson or Holowell did anything today so I think they'll pick the best of the freshmen and work them into the rotation.
|5 weeks 4 days ago||Thoughts....||
This is a great post and I love the final summary of minutes played. Here are my thoughts:
Final thought - Burke's loss (and Hardaway too) will be enormous. But we went to the title game with three freshmen starting and six of our ten regular players being freshmen. I'd like to think that we can take three new freshmen (two if Donnal redshirts) who are highly ranked and fit them into the team without a huge dropoff.
OSU will probably be the league favorite along with whoever loses fewer players between MSU and MIchigan. I like our chances - especially with such a great coach. We have size, experience now (despite their young age) and depth. Oh, and NBA quality talent. Go Blue.
|5 weeks 4 days ago||Decoder ring....||
Can you put together a simple decoder ring for all of the leagues associated with hockey to help those of us who are interested but uneducated understand what it means? NTDP, NAHL, OHL, USHL, AHL, NHL.....the list goes on. Maybe something simple in the useful stuff that you can link to in hockey posts that compares the leagues.
|5 weeks 5 days ago||Greyshirt vs. Preferred Walk-on||
I don't understand why he can't practice with the team. Is that to maintain eligibility? Why not call him a preferred walk-on so he can work out with the team and red-shirt, thus making him a red-shirt freshmen in 2014-2015?
The only reason I can think of is that the greyshirt gives him one extra year of eligibility, but as a non-scholarship player anyway there's no guarantee of a 5th year being awared....let alone what would amount to his sixth year in school.
I see no incentive in this plan - just make him a walk-on, get him started in the program, and don't worry about a possible contribution in his sixth year.
|5 weeks 5 days ago||My list.....||
Your list is pretty similar to mine. The type of screw up that really pisses me off is the blatant mistake. You can't get too upset about a charge/block because that's an impossible coin flip. But not assigning a foul to the correct player? A missed kick ball that millions of people saw live? Burke's block when there are only two players involved and everyone is staring at them?
The ones that bugged me the most, in order, were as follows:
|5 weeks 5 days ago||Biting tongue.....||
I have been trying really hard since Monday night to ignore the role inept officiating played in the game. Basketball, especially at a high level, is impossible to officiate. I also thought that the flow of the game was great and thus the officials didn't have a strong impact in how the game was played. So when I see threads like this I try to bite my tongue.
But I feel the need to comment on this, so I'll preface it by saying that Louisville made more plays and did a great job in the second half of attacking our defense and rebounding. We had ample opportunity to make a play or grab a rebound that would have had a more significant impact than any one call.
Now, here are my thoughts:
Chances are that the officials were just bad at their job that night and not favoring one team over the other. I don't think there was a conspiracy or bias more than other game. MIchigan would have benefitted from a more correctly officiated game obviously, but what can you do? We still didn't make enough plays to win.
|6 weeks 15 hours ago||My full roster....||
For that last spot there are countless good candidates. Impossible to pick:
|6 weeks 4 days ago||Actually.....||
Michigan remained at #4, they didn't move up to #4. As stated in a previous post, they were #4 at the last update and remained there this week.
But the next update would be the one that includes both Basketball teams and the Mens Swimming National Title. That is where we'd see our biggest jump and challenge Stanford.
|6 weeks 4 days ago||Expected||
I thought this was the expected outcome from day one anyway, so it doesn't bother me much. Hardaway has nothing left to gain staying another year and Burke nearly left last year before he was the consensus best player in the country. About the only thing that would have changed my opinion would have been if they didn't fulfill the team goals. With the Final Four now the incentive to stay is minimal at best.
The only question for me has been GR3. For any of us that watched him closely we know how far he has to grow as a player and what his limitations are, despite how good he has been. I can't figure out why he projects so high on draft boards and want to see him stay. But when you DO project that high, two of your teammates are leaving, and you will go out having played in the final four I can see the motivation. Let's hope he stays.
As sad as I will be to see Hardaway and Burke leave, I'm really excited for Irvin and Walton - both of whom are ranked far higher as high school kids and seem perfect fits for the system.
|6 weeks 5 days ago||More please!||
The more journalists who keep digging, the better. I obviously want the cheaters brought to justice, but for those who want the entire NCAA amateur status reevaluated this helps too.
|7 weeks 1 day ago||No - save it for the following year||
THis season we have a 9 man rotation, with Max Bielfeldt as the 10th guy who plays now and then in an emergency (a nice luxury). We lose the 11th and 12th guys on the bench who never play. Let's assume we lose two players to the NBA from our rotation. We already have three top-100 recruits coming in to fill rotation roles. Frankly, I'm not even sure how Donnal gets into the rotation next year despite being a good fit at the PF spot.
I think another recruit next season, especially one still available at this point in the process, would be a bench warmer. I would rather save the scholarship for the following year and target some high-profile recruits.
We have plenty of talent next season with Walton (PG), Irvin (SG/SF), and Donnal (PF/C) coming in even with some early departures.
|7 weeks 5 days ago||Some thoughts....||
I'm taking a slightly different perspective on the Morgan situation. While I do think he's been benched because of his recent issues (be they mental, physical, or both) I think not playing against VCU allowed the coaches to play the injury card and give him time off.
I also disagree that he won't play much against Kansas, not because I disagree with Brian's take - but because of their PF. They basically have two post guys on the floor and I don't think GR3 is going to be able to exploit his match-up like he did in the first two games. I think Michigan is going to need to play more post players to handle both of the Kansas bigs, so you'll probably see Morgan and maybe even Bielfeldt get some minutes.
As for the NBA draft, which I hate for the insane amount of emphasis on "potential" and that they haven't adopted the NHL or MLB policy yet, here are my probabilities:
It is at this point that I'm thrilled we have the best player in Michigan and Indiana headed our way and that they play the positions of the guys we might lose early.
|7 weeks 5 days ago||What's wrong with the NBA....||
When I see lists like this I can't figure out why the NBA isn't beating down the NCAA door begging to adopt with the NHL or MLB draft policy instead of this stupid 1-and-done rule.
Let's see, the first pick is a guy who can block shots and dunk and......and.....uh....is coming off major knee surgery.
And the 16th pick is a guy who disappeared for over a month during the middle of the conference season, going weeks without hitting a jump shot, looked lost on defense, and struggled to defend moderately athletic PF's in the Big Ten?
I love GR3 and I think he'll end up being a solid pro some day, but the fact that NBA teams are so interested in what they THINK a guy can be that they would hurry to draft them this high is mind boggling.
Now imagine a scenario where GR3 had already been drafted by a team but was free to stay in college another year or two while he honed his game until his NBA team had a place for them on their bench.
For the record, I think Burke and Hardaway are leaving but McGary (obviously) and GR3 are staying. GR3 probably leaves next year and then both Stauskas and McGary the year after. I also love that our rotation includes a bunch of guys who will be here for their entire careers like LeVert, Spike, Morgan, Horford, Bielfeldt, etc.
|9 weeks 5 days ago||Bench.....||
I think the coaches absolutely would bench a shooter for a defensive player who rebounds.....but we don't have them. In this post you saw Robinson and Stauskas make major mistakes and Hardaway make a few himself. Those are your three wing players. Who do you replace them with?
On the bench you have two tiny freshmen (Spike & Caris), a senior who never plays and isn't known for either defense or rebounding (Vogrich), and a big freshman who isn't athletic enough to play the wing (Max).
They are really missing an athletic PF who can come off the bench for D and rebounding. As much as I like Max Bielfeldt, I sort of wish they would have signed Larry Nance Jr. for that role. He'd be a 6'7" athlete who could play some D and rebound. By playing him at the 4 off the bench you could rotate your wings more and give GR3 some minutes at the SF spot where he might have an advantage physically.
|10 weeks 5 days ago||Michigan Pro-Day||
I was pretty disappointed that only Denard got invited to the combine. Here are some thoughts on our other seniors:
|10 weeks 5 days ago||Player Buzz||
I like hearing this sort of thing from actual players. But even still, you have to run their words through a translator to figure out how much to believe:
|10 weeks 5 days ago||Look at schedule....||
A large part of Michigan's road record is schedule. We didnt get to play Iowa or Nebraska on the road. Still.....a half court shot away from a title lead and big road win.....grr.....
|10 weeks 5 days ago||Height||
Is it really possible that Miller is 6'4"? I thought the biggest knock on him was that he was Molk-like in his size. I thought he was 6'2" or something similar. If he's really 6'4" adn 288 then I'm even more perplexed as to why he couldn't challenge Mealer/Barnum last year.
|10 weeks 6 days ago||Depth, not performance....||
As we know from being burned in the past by things like "Cam Gordon is an awesome safety" there is only so much you can learn. I don't expect to see the OL maul people or our DL get tons of sacks. In fact, if you do see too much success in one area then something might be wrong on the other side of the ball or one of the coaches may be calling a simple play book.
So rather than look for performance metrics, I'm looking to hear that some players are pushing to get in the rotation at several key positions. With that in mind, I want to see the following:
I would like to see Gardner have a good spring and find out if Bellamy is still a viable back-up or not.
|11 weeks 20 hours ago||Some responses.....||
Here are some responses to other comments:
|11 weeks 1 day ago||Over-reacting||
It was great to see LeVert contribute yesterday and I think he earned some extra minutes as a defensive spark off the bench. But perspective is required here - we didn't even score 60 points and it took some lucky breaks and heroic play from Burke to win this one.
I also don't think you mess with the starting lineup at this point in the season with a team laden with freshmen who are probably physically and menally spent. (Though the injury may force a lineup change).
What I think you should see is a quicker hook from people who are struggling. LeVert's play and Morgan's health and play in a two-post lineup suggest that Stauskas and GR3 should be on a short leash. And maybe you keep their minutes about the same but you pull them and have a talk on the bench sooner if they struggle on either end of the court.
|11 weeks 3 days ago||Substitution strategy||
I agree that neither Spike, Max, or Caris can play extended minutes. We're not going to win by giving them a ton of GR3 or Stauskas minutes. But what about these thoughts:
As for the commenter Bluefantn who blamed Beilein for not recruiting B10 players......really? REALLY? Wow. I guess top-ten recruiting classes with NBA players isn't the right strategy. We should recruit slow, unathletic bruisers I guess. I'm not sure what a B10 player is, but I'd rather have exciting players that are fun to watch and will grow under good coaching.
With that being said, I would concede that for some reason our team seems to get pushed around a lot and gets no help from the refs. Part of that is youth and style of play. But I do wonder if we need to knock someone on their butt now and then or if Beilein needs to take a T or get harder on the refs. I feel like Izzo, Ryan, Creen, and Matta go absolutely nuts on the refs and get a lot more calls. Maybe that's correlation and not causation.....
|11 weeks 4 days ago||Vogrich is not the answer||
I had hoped that Vogrich would add value this year since he had small contributions in the past, but he's been awful in his limited minutes this year, not even hitting 3s consistently. He's not the answer.
I also think the coaches need to be careful to avoid desperation moves like totally shaking up the starting lineup and risking losing the focus of one of these freshmen even more than they already have.
The things you might see are as follows:
If you think about it, 6 of our 10 rotation players are freshmen. So even with changes to the rotation you're still dealing with kids who are probably fatigued both physically and mentally. They are also more easily rattled when things go poorly.
|11 weeks 4 days ago||Stauskas not fouling||
Of all the problems I have with our defense and rebounding lately, Stauskas not fouling on a breakway isn't one of them. I HATE that play in basketball because I think when you're in a 1-on-1 fast break here are the typical outcomes:
Just give some token pressure if you can't get in front of him or have help coming.
Also, I think I'd coach my players in the Big Ten to try and avoid being in the charge/block situation on defense in any road game. The Big Ten refs give that 50-50 call to the home team about 95% of the time, not worth the risk.
I like the idea of switching to a zone for a few possessions to confuse PSU, but I think what we've realized is that our young players aren't good mentally on defense so asking them to play in a zone probably isn't going to help much at all. I do wonder about coaching the second unit (Horford-LaVertt-Spike-Bielfeldt) to specialize in zone defense and whether that could help. Let your bench guys focus on it more in practice and when you need it you can bring them in.
In the end, Stauskas has cooled off from three, GR3 is afraid to take them, and Hardaway is in a cold patch. The poster who said the outcome represented a 21-point swing in 3pt numbers from our team averages has a point.