if you seek an image of the most Wisconsin OL ever, enter here
|7 weeks 2 days ago||From the stats I've seen, his||
From the stats I've seen, his peripherals are actually better than his numbers: FIP, xFIP, SIERA
|8 weeks 1 day ago||From a few DCDS athletes I||
From a few DCDS athletes I know, it is not uncommon for coaches to interact with the financial aid committee to ensure packages are sufficient to attract and maintain those athletes. The notion that financial aid is solely need-based is a farce.
|11 weeks 2 days ago||Ran a Monte Carlo with your numbers.||
Probability of San Fran having a 9-7 record or worse is ~ 79%
<= 8-8 is ~53%
<= 10-6 is ~95%
|33 weeks 1 day ago||Gerson was Fantastic||
But I am old now and have no idea if she's still there.
|43 weeks 6 days ago||Log transform, then linear||
Log transform, then linear comparison? A top seed can earn~ [-3.8,2.2] wins above expectation. A bottom seed [0,6] wins. There is a bias for lower seeds that is not accounted for.
|1 year 6 weeks ago||Not just at you, but why is||
Not just at you, but why is this a good pickup? Guy hasn't thrown more than 40 some innings in three or four years and his era was what? 5? With 26 walks in 42 innings? Veras had an option for 1yr 4 mill. 3.0 era, in 50 % more innings, better K/9 and bb/9 (obviously). I don't get it. Closers are asking two years 10 mill per, 1yr at 4 is an undervalued asset. You couldn't flip him for a Krol straight up?
|1 year 6 weeks ago||Matte was DFA'd after the||
Matte was DFA'd after the Davis signing
|1 year 8 weeks ago||Based on your other comments||
Based on your other comments , I think you might not be disagreeing respectfully.
|1 year 13 weeks ago||Upvote for actually||
Upvote for actually referencing the rule book. This call is not controversial. It is a fairly routine call that just happened to be at the end of an important game. Also the base path isnt the foul line. It is set by baserunner (Rule 7.08 e.g) And even though it has no bearing, it was most likely intentional. You dont try to get up by moving your feet away from the ground.
|1 year 13 weeks ago||The premise "getting to the||
The premise "getting to the line late means that it's harder for a defense to adjust to *you*" cannot be true by itself. Options always have positive value. (mathematical fact: options are bounded by a value of zero. If exercising the option would have a negative value, you would simply choose not to exercise it.) Getting to the line early gives you the option of hiking it as soon as the ball is set and it is legal to do so. This length of time is the same regardless of how much time is on the play clock. It's quite possible that running up-tempo would have a negative effect on expectation, but it would have to come from some other mechanism, such as more time to make a better play call, poor communication, taking time away from technique work to practice executing the up-temp offense, etc.
|1 year 13 weeks ago||Out of curiousity, I'm||
Out of curiousity, I'm wondering how many of the 200 or so 2-pt attempts per year are from muffed holds/snaps on the 5000+ PAT attempts.
|1 year 14 weeks ago||The 2007 Rose Bowl disagrees||
The 2007 Rose Bowl disagrees with you.
|1 year 29 weeks ago||Here's hoping he duplicates||
Here's hoping he duplicates what Andrew Miller did for Yale.
|1 year 30 weeks ago||Sports are indeed the rake.||
Sports are indeed the rake. Also, services like mlb.tv have regional blackouts, don't they?
I've been incrementally cutting the cord. Comcast charges $18 bucks a month as an HD technology fee on top of having to subscribe to an upper-tier to even have the HD channels in the first place.
Mohu leaf is a nice antenna. My wife depends on time-shifting now after having a DVR, so there are a lot of low cost options for tv tuner cards that allow the recording of over-the-air broadcasts. An old Apple TV has a nice form factor for use as a streamer (installing XBMC) That is a little more technical though.
Like others have mentioned, between Netflix and Hulu Plus, you can have as much streaming content as you want. My wife actually prefers to tele-binge on shows rather than watch weekly, so she doesn't mind getting into a show a few years after it airs.
If you don't live in flat-land (for an OTA signal), there's a company called Aereo that recently won a court challenge that it could stream OTA content. I think it's available for $10/month in New York. It may have moved into other markets, I know it was planning a move to Chicago.
|1 year 32 weeks ago||Teams forfeit their slot||
Teams forfeit their slot money for not signing a pick. The danger would be in signing their high picks under slot (re: Jackson Lamb)
|1 year 40 weeks ago||In a 15 run game, the ump||
In a 15 run game, the ump would expand the strike zone to a double-wide bath towel. Basically if its not bouncing, its getting called a strike.. When a team cant throw strikes in that kind of zone, there truly is nothing the opposing team can do. You don't bunt, you don't take extra bases, and you most certainly don't take pitches, unless you like watching the world's slowest merry-go-round. Maybe tell your kids to work on their opposite field or hit-and-run approach? (without actually sending runners, obv)
|2 years 28 weeks ago||Justin, The advice you've||
The advice you've just received is spot on and you will do well to heed it.
1) While I agree that keeping the focus on pull-ups is key for the PFT score, everything else you do athletically will focus on endurance. Squad runs, individual runs, the obstacle course, Fartleks, Upper-Body Development et al will all value endurance over pure strength. The only time you will be doing 20 pull-ups is on the PFT.
2) Not much to add. Find some hills. Quantico is not flat. Once you hit Da Nang, you'll know it if you've only been training on a track. Focus on all the other stuff first, but know that on squad runs, you won't be running with your natural stride. If you are tall, this may take some getting used to, I know for me it took awhile for me to adjust.
3) Nothing to add. I don't know if it's changed, but they'll issue ICB and Jungle boots, each have a different feel. Get used to one of them before you go.
4) COSIGN! Many of the CrossFit affiliates are owned / operated by former service members and will likely support your training at a significant discount. The UBDs and Fartlek runs are fairly analagous to CrossFit workouts. Also, it's probably one of the only places you'll find a rope. You'll have a 30 ft rope climb on the confidence / obstacle course. (Charlie Company, Third Platoon!)
5) Do as much studying as you can before hand. 25% of your "score" is athletic, 25% academic, and 50% leadership. Don't forget the Code of Conduct as well, don't even think about showing up without knowing the rank insignia. Call your Platoon Sergeant "Staff Sergeant" (He'll most likely be a Gunnery Sergeant) and you will be a marked man from day one. "Good Morning Platoon Sergeant Gunnery Sargeant Blaine!". All of your others are to be addressed as "Sergeant Instructor - Rank - Name". Do this right on the first day.
7) Again, most CrossFit gyms will be outfitted with one. Also get used to doing knee-ups on a rope.
8) My interpretation of the Sergeant Instructors is that it is their job to place you under as much stress as humanly possible to evaluate your potential as a leader of Marines. There are three of them and ~60 candidates in the platoon (to start). They have rotate their focus through select candidates to accomplish this. If you stand up to the scrutiny, they will move on. If you don't, they will try to make you DOR. As zone left suggests, you want to stick out for leadership and nothing else. Also, when you're filling billets, they will get on you more for indecision than imperfection. Remember "80% solution implemented swiftly and aggressively".
9) You will mess-up and be writing essays. "Failure to Follow Simple Instructions" is a favorite to hand out. Be smart and pick a theme from whatever you're being taught in the courses. It will help you study while you are completing the mundane task.
10) Stay up late with your squad / platoon. The most common problem will be close order drill. If you're OCC you will have enlisted Marines, find one to help you. Get on this the first three days when you aren't doing anything.
11) It's probably cheating, but a couple items that will help...
a)Bring extra 1" stencils and build a jig for your name. You will be making thousands of name tags on athletic tape. Start making them the first few days and just tape them in the back of your OCS binder. In everything you do, get you're shit together and then help the rest of your squad / fire team do the same.
b) Get used to calling yourself "candidate".
c) I'm having second thoughts about the rest of these, because coming up with them really helps the team building, but remember they're looking for team cohesiveness / uniformity rather than adherence to some OCS manual.
I still have the OCS candidate course materials and can mail them to you, if you think they'd be of help / have time to review. But again, out of all the advice given, I'd say Zone Lefts #2,3 &4 are the most important. Best of luck!
|3 years 10 weeks ago||Are you going PLC or OCC? If||
Are you going PLC or OCC? If you need any advice, let me know. I still have all of my candidate manuals and can pretty much remember every second of my experience there.
|3 years 11 weeks ago||Mr. Fick||
According to his bio on One Bullet Away, he was captain of a national championship cycling team at Dartmouth. While the picture of a D1 football player does fit the mental model of a Marine, surprisingly enough, when I went to OCS in Quanitco it was the football players who ended up taking the silver bullet during PT, while the harriers and wrestlers were running circles around everyone. (Humps were a different story)
As for former D1 players, how about Heisman trophy winner, Rhodes Scholar and eventual Brigadier General Pete Dawkins? Nate Fick reminds me of Pete Dawkins. Someone who's just better than you at everything. 34 years old. CEO of the Center for New American Security.
|3 years 11 weeks ago||Have to disagree||
Not so much with your hypothesis, that football isn't about probabilities, only with your evidence. Drawing a conclusion about probabilities from a single observation is, save for outcomes with very low probability, not very sound.
|3 years 18 weeks ago||It's because only 8 out of 30||
It's because only 8 out of 30 teams make the playoffs, unlike the other pro sports where you have 12 and 16 teams. It still is an actual accomplishment in baseball (especially historically, when there were only 4 or 2 depending how far you want to go back)
(Edit: This was in response to Shredders comment on page 1)
|3 years 18 weeks ago||This isn't true. The Tigers||
This isn't true. The Tigers will play the Red Sox / Wild Card in the ALDS if they finish ahead of Texas / AL West winner. As they won every series against Texas, they also hold the tiebreaker. So they are effectively three games up on Texas right now.
|3 years 22 weeks ago||This isn't true. The Rangers||
This isn't true. The Rangers are only up 2.5 on the Tigers for the second seed, and only 2.5 on the Angels, which is closer than "approaching close". 2.5 games is close when there are over 30 left to play.
|3 years 22 weeks ago||Right now, the Tigers are 3||
Right now, the Tigers are 3 games back of the Rangers. I would love to see Game 1 and a potential Game 5 of the ALDS in Detroit, especially with the potential for Verlander to start both games.
|3 years 22 weeks ago||"Robbed" of Trayvon Robinson,||
"Robbed" of Trayvon Robinson, indeed. I really do not understand that deal for the Dodgers.
|3 years 22 weeks ago||I agree with the easy||
I agree with the easy schedule down the stretch comment.
If the Tigers can go .500+ (18-17) the rest of the way, one of the other two teams would have to go on a .650+ tear to finish out just to catch the Tigers. That's 24-12 for a White Sox team that hasn't hit very well, and 24-13 for a Cleveland team that hasn't pitched well outside of Masterson. I don't see that kind of run being likely.
So can the Tigs play .500 ball the rest of the way? You've got three more games against Tampa, 6 against Minny, 6 against KC, and 4 each against Oak and Balt in addition to the aforementioned Cle/Chi games. You've also got Verlander taking the hill every 5 start.
Baltimore's the worst team in the American League, record-wise, followed by KC. (And yes, I do remember the last weekend in '06) Both Minnesota and Oakland are still bad teams right now as well.
|3 years 22 weeks ago||Chicago and Cleveland have||
Chicago and Cleveland have eight games left against each other. Detroit has six games left against both Chicago and Cleveland. That's alot of opportunity to either distance yourself from, or come back to the pack. The next "biggest series of the year" will have to wait for a whole 10 days when the White Sox come to town.
|3 years 22 weeks ago||Just curious as to why the||
Just curious as to why the probability of an above 500 team beating a below 500 team in a single game pretty low?
|3 years 22 weeks ago||I agree with everything||
I agree with everything except #1 as jmblue points out. Porcello was coming inside hard on the left-handers. Look at Hafner's at-bat. I don't know that it was obviously a bush-league play on Porcello. That said, if he was throwing behind him because of watching the foul ball, its just as bush as Weaver.
It was unfortunate as you say, that both pitchers had the inner-half taken away, and both proceeded to get rocked.
|3 years 22 weeks ago||I didn't watch the game, but||
Damn you, word verification!
|3 years 22 weeks ago||I didn't watch the game, but||
I didn't watch the game, but I'm a big Fred Roh fan after publicly standing up for Michigan's program and knowing that he reads this blog. I hope it was just an off-game for Jake, because I enjoy having the Roh's as part of the Michigan family.
|3 years 22 weeks ago||"Comfortably Ahead in ERA"||
"Comfortably ahead in ERA" isn't exactly true. Even at this point in the season, Weaver goes out and tosses a 6 2/3 with 5 ER, Verlander tosses a 8 / 1 ER and he's trailing in the ERA conversation. While I don't expect Weaver to, as I think he's only had one game since May giving up more than 4 ER, the miniscule numbers they are both throwing up there and the small sample size mean it just isn't a comfortable lead.
|3 years 37 weeks ago||Just for the record||
Given the time you quoted, Clay would have been at best a 4.6 forty time 50 lbs ago. The 55m dash time quoted would also have put him over 3 yards behind denard at the finish line.
|3 years 38 weeks ago||There is a reason...||
That has nothing to do with the NFL or the Lions. It's called jobs. People are moving out of the state because of jobs. Something that really isn't an issue for someone who, you know, is coming as a result of an employment opportunity. I do agree that the Lions aren't an especially attractive destination for a top notch DB, I just don't really agree its has anything to do with the reasons your everyman is leaving.
|3 years 39 weeks ago||I'm probably the only one||
I'm probably the only one who was hoping for almost anyone except Prince Amukamura. I just haven't been impressed with his actual game performance. That being said, I don't really get Nick Fairley with Williams and Hill on the roster.
|3 years 39 weeks ago||Gordie, I couldn't agree||
I couldn't agree more with the assessment. He did exactly what he should have done. Even the first home run to Quentin was on a 3-2 count and a 4-0 lead. It was a fastball that was very poorly located, but so what? You don't put guys on-base in that situation. In the seventh, with a 6-1 lead, you aren't being cute either. You are trying to eat innings and save the bullpen in the opening game of a big series. If they go yard, the only thing that really gets hurt are your stats...
|3 years 43 weeks ago||Nice Argument, but factually incorrect||
The link to the maizedcolored glasses post, and the subsequent arguments referencing are nice, but factually incorrect. Always check your citiations.
The actual selection criteria can be found here: http://www.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/files/BracketPrin-Proc10-5-10.pdf
"Among the resources available to the committee are complete box scores, game summaries and notes, pertinent information submitted on a team’s behalf by its conference, various computer rankings, head-to-head results, chronological results, Division I results, non-conference results, home, away and neutral results, rankings, polls and the NABC regional advisory committee rankings."
I agree with the logical validity that IF a tournament selection was made solely on objective criteria, an unambiguous resume, then nothing VCU has done to this point would validate their inclusion. The antecedent is not true -- there are subjective criteria available to the committee-- therefore we can say nothing about the consequent, i.e. VCU's worthiness. Jay Bilas is still an ass-hat
The stated first priority of the committee is to select the 37 best at-large teams (not the 37 best seasons or "resumes"). Bayesian inference strongly suggests that VCU is and probably has been worthy of being in the tournament.
|4 years 10 weeks ago||Ryan Kerrigan would like to||
Ryan Kerrigan would like to speak to you personally regarding who the best player on Purdue's team is.
|4 years 12 weeks ago||I have to agree with the "not||
I have to agree with the "not an accident" crowd. Whether in the military, construction, manufacturing or any other business, especially one involving youth safety is first,. In all cases implementing effective safety procedures is cultural and culture, or lack thereof, is the responsibility of the boss.
The fact of the matter is that 100+ people watched a kid up on a scissor-lift in gusting winds. Hell, people are smart enough to secure bookshelves to studs to prevent toppling, yet not one person was smart enough to question the wisdom of this activity?
Perhaps there were appropriate safety procedures in place, perhaps the proper personnel were trained in the operation and limitations of a piece of equipment that can quite reasonably be seen to be dangerous. What I do know is that if my son played or was being recruited to play football for Notre Dame, I'd be asking some serious questions about every risk management policy that Coach Kelly and the athletic department have in place, from whether the dorms have sprinkler systems to what mitigation measures are in place to prevent a Korey Stringer incident.
|4 years 17 weeks ago||Not really. The use of||
Not really. The use of "conventional" vis-a-vis "nuclear" has a fairly standard meaning : non-nuclear.
|4 years 17 weeks ago||Really? Didn't we just go||
Really? Didn't we just go for it on 4th and three from the seven yard line with less than four minutes left in the game, leading 58-21? Let's leave the self-righteousness on the shelf and enjoy our team's performance.
|4 years 43 weeks ago||like flies to wanton boys, so||
like flies to wanton boys, so are we to the gods?
|5 years 1 week ago||Thank you...||
Nadal v Federer on the deuce had me very disappointed for a moment.
|5 years 5 weeks ago||I actually almost included||
I actually almost included something similar to this... but check the delta between a #1 pick and #4 in terms of dollars per year. Glenn Dorsey got 10 mill +. So did Aaron Curry. Its not "Negligible", but I'd rather take my #1 choice for 2 mil more considering its a "lottery ticket" that I'm obligated to buy at either of those slots...
|5 years 5 weeks ago||They did... They also took||
They did... They also took Adam Carriker in 2007 (13th)
|5 years 5 weeks ago||A top 5 pick||
is a financial albatross... I agree that this is one of the deepest drafts in recent years on the defensive side of the ball (and getting deeper daily via junior entries). The problem is that without a bona-fide #1 QB its going to be hard to find a dance partner willing to move up 5-6 spots (or at least one who's willing to pay anything to make it worth it). If you can get out of the 8-10 million per year region of the draft and pick up another 1st round pick, I agree you make that deal in a heartbeat.
(I do think Eric Berry is going to be a phenomenal player in the NFL, not a bad consolation prize at #2)
|5 years 5 weeks ago||Detail: Ray Vinopal was on||
Detail: Ray Vinopal was on Cardinal Mooney, one of the best teams in the state...
|5 years 5 weeks ago||This Draft||
This draft is absolutely loaded with defensive line talent. You're going to be able to pick-up a top-flight DT/DE at the top of the second round. Okung might not be Orlando Pace and it might not be conventional wisdom to take a DB in the top 4 but you might have to look at Okung or Berry with the first pick and take the best DL available in the 2nd.
DL: Suh (Neb) McCoy (OU) Dunlap (Fla) Cody (Ala) Hardy (Miss) Morgan (GT) Graham (obv) Jones (Syr) Austin (UNC) Pierre-Paul (SoFla) Cunningham (Fla) Griffen (USC) Williams (Tenn) Odrick (PSU) Selvie (SoFla)
DB: Berry (Tenn) Mays (USC) Haden (Fla) Arenas (Ala) Lindley (U-K) Dowling (UVa) Ghee (Wake) Cox (OkSt) Thompson (Cal) Lewis (Vandy) Jackson (Ala) Thurmond (Ore)
LB: McClain (Ala); Spikes (Fla) Beal (OU) Kindle (U-T) Jones (MSU) Lewis (OU) Witherspoon (Mizz) Lang (Troy) Johnson (U-K) Morgan (USC) Lee (PSU) Bowman (PSU)
|5 years 6 weeks ago||Florida Punter||
but who is Florida's punter? One stat the announcer's spewed that up until the Alabama game, only two punts had been returned for positive yardage.
|5 years 7 weeks ago||My mistake then... I thought||
My mistake then... I thought you were in Michigan Alpha back in '00 with us...
|5 years 7 weeks ago||It's weird when you find out..||
How small the world is and that seemingly faceless internet personas have actually been involved in your life.
|5 years 7 weeks ago||I did not know goaltending||
I did not know goaltending involved divine intervention...
|5 years 9 weeks ago||Duly Noted Sir...||
Apparently it takes me seven minutes to read "UV" and the associated link as there were "zero comments" showing in my browser when I clicked "Add comment". I'm sure you had the same "How does Wisconsin beat Illinois help the Big Ten's resume?" mental pause I did...
|5 years 9 weeks ago||Typo Edit:||
Wisconsin took out Illinois = Wisconsin took out Arizona
|5 years 9 weeks ago||If I was an NFL GM||
and he was on the board in the third round, it wouldn't take me long to get my pick up to the podium. I think a YMRMFSPA of Leon Hall in the NFL is appropriate (Who went 17 or 18th overall after his senior year) I see him as a first rounder next year.
|5 years 9 weeks ago||So its not res ipsa loquitur||
So its not res ipsa loquitur but there's a vast space between something being "dispositive" and being able to "use that quote to show that Harbaugh really believes he made a bad play call". Its just prima facie evidence for any argument Topher wants to make. As you can see from my posts I don't think it was egregious. A poor run or pass call on second down in that situation maybe "worth" 7 yards or 25 seconds of clock in terms of 'blame'. An interception is execution. But if you're going to claim that Topher can't "know" that Gerhart was tired, can you really claim that you know why Harbaugh said what he said?
|5 years 9 weeks ago||my personal opinion...||
Is if he's willing to be a 3rd round draft pick, he is gone...
I even found one mock draft that had Warren in the 1st round, 12th overall. (walterfootball.com) Before you climb out on that ledge, the same site has Ryan Mallett as going 7th overall.
|5 years 9 weeks ago||I tried writing a post on the 2010 NFL draft today...||
But IE crashed about four times and I gave up...
here are some of the names coming up on mock drafts
DB: Berry (Tenn) Mays (USC) Haden (Fla) Arenas (Ala) Lindley (U-K) Dowling (UVa) Ghee (Wake) Cox (OkSt) Thompson (Cal) Lewis (Vandy) Jackson (Ala) Thurmond (Ore)
Where would Donovan fit in that group? I have no idea.
|5 years 9 weeks ago||I think we're arguing over degrees...||
but I guess I have to retreat from my position a little as Harbaugh said this after the game "I should have given him a better play". (re: the interception).
|5 years 9 weeks ago||I watched the game...||
And I agree, It worked much better than they could have hoped for, but it was still a long throw (about 10-15 yards? I don't remember at this point) It wasn't exactly a flare. I just don't see it as a colossal failure in judgment. Luck did have a horrible completion percentage though. At that point, I think he was something like 10 for 28 or something ridiculous.
|5 years 9 weeks ago||Andrew Luck||
Also had a running back slip up underneath the linebacker's drop. He made a bad read and a poor throw. If he check's down to the running back he's close to the goal line. And Gerhart's play to "get them close enough to win" was a pass? Was Harbaugh an idiot for calling that play as well?
|5 years 10 weeks ago||I threw up in my mouth a||
I threw up in my mouth a little when Tropp scored...
|5 years 10 weeks ago||Somewhat disheartening||
That a Wisconsin journalist shows more faith in the eventual resurrection of Michigan football than masses of purported Wolverine fans...
|5 years 11 weeks ago||U-C wasn't exactly "totally||
U-C wasn't exactly "totally talent deficient" prior to his arrival. Mark Dantonio had taken them to a bowl game prior to his arrival at MSU.
That said... I think he's an incredible coach and I think would be a colossus at Notre Dame. He's got deep recruiting connections in the most talent-rich midwestern states and would be able to tap into the national ND pipelines. I would see him doing very well.
|5 years 11 weeks ago||Stevie Brown||
Is my favorite part of this season. He is clearly this year's Cato June award winner.
|5 years 11 weeks ago||And since it wasn't stated explicitly...||
I no longer hold that opinion... mea culpa, mea culpa mea maxima culpa.
|5 years 11 weeks ago||Reminds me of the Brandon Minor situation...||
Last year Magnus (IIRC) was posting daily about how Brandon Minor needed to get the rock. I remember personally thinking he was an idiot at the time, given his similar turnover rate (about five fumbles in what seemed like twenty touches). Minor Rage happened and we're passed it, crying for him to be in on every goal line situation. I think eventually Robinson will be a part of the offense in some capacity, but until he is, I'm not going to worry about it.
|5 years 12 weeks ago||That Vanderbilt team also||
That Vanderbilt team also made the list of top 10 teams that "Didn't Make Omaha"
|5 years 16 weeks ago||Seriously? A closer pitches||
Seriously? A closer pitches 3 outstanding innings with some TERRIBLE defensive plays and you're trying to put him on a rail car? Your sentiment may be valid in total, but certainly not soley based on this game...
|5 years 16 weeks ago||Sports Book||
I would say a sports book is your best chance... Sorry I can't recall exactly which one, but a quick google says Caliente Sports Book. I remember we all went to watch a Trinidad fight down there a few years ago.
|5 years 20 weeks ago||FOIA||
The state of Michigan FOIA summary from the attorney general states thusly
Public Records Exempt From Disclosure:
--Specific personal information about an individual if the release would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of that individual's privacy.
The University may have grounds to deny such a blanket request
The full text can be found here...
|5 years 21 weeks ago||At least...||
David Price has legitimate stuff... I can't stand to see the Paul Byrds, Brian Banniser's and Carl Pavano's of the world eat the Tigers alive...
Off Topic MichFan but I have a retraction to make (I guess it was more to Yinka Double Dare, but regardless....) Messed around with some regressions after the "OT - AL CENTRAL PREDICTION THREAD" and Edwin Jackson really stood out as having a very large residual regarding what his ERA should be... I don't really follow the National League much, but Jonathan Sanchez has a .883 In-Play Slugging percentage, yet his ERA is only 4.27. Of course he K's 25% of the batters he faces, but regardles... Hitter are averaging almost a base every time they put the ball in play... (Contrast that with Clayton Kershaw, who is only at .400...)
|5 years 21 weeks ago||The poster who commented||
The poster who commented about "sample size" is right on. If you were doing statistical analysis, you would look for an R-sq value to see how much error was accounted for by your model.
Think of it this way... There is way too much noise for a study of 25 points to tell you much either way. Let's say Michigan of '07 and '08 played all 25 games with the same personnel against the same opponent, much of the variation would be accounted for, and your 25 data points would be more useful.
|5 years 22 weeks ago||Very, Very good post, I would||
Very, Very good post, I would exhort other users to +1 the hell out of it... I personally don't think Clutch ratings provide much value, and that dislike is increased by such a small sample size in this case
|5 years 22 weeks ago||I really get what you're||
I really get what you're trying to say, but at the same time its kind of exasperating. The same studies that try to "prove" DIPS statistics discount the importance of BAPBIP (or IPAvg) arriving at the conclusion that any ball put in play is essentially random as to whether it becomes a hit.
What one can gather from that is that the pitcher is not giving up home runs at a very high rate, at the very worst 1 per 10 hits in this sample...
I'll leave it to quote the hardball times for this
Basically, most predictors of future ERA are flawed, so while your statement has validity regarding ERA, it is misleading.
|5 years 22 weeks ago||What's the point?||
Isn't the argument really going to be which starting rotation is going to perform better? Isn't ERA a stronger correlation than DIPS in actual Win Shares?
I would love to have a conversation on DIPS though... Its a very interesting subject, but you can't really take it as canon based on the actual data...
|5 years 22 weeks ago||Slightly new to posting... Do||
Slightly new to posting... Do you know how I can delete the double post?
|5 years 22 weeks ago||Pitchers||
Pitchers on the Tigers current roster have a 3.64 ERA. (Ni, Lyon, Jackson, Verlander, Seay, Rodney, Perry, Porcello, Miner, Galarraga & Washburn) Dolsi has a 1.69 ERA, and he's the next call-up.
The Tigers have, at this point in the season, a pretty decent bullpen, especially when you consider that Miner is at 4.8 out of that group, and he's usually long relief. I don't have the numbers on what Galarraga's post April ERA, but its ugly (5.16 in total)
I think you see the Tigers win at least 55 percent of their games to finish out, and if that happens the White Sox would have to go at least 25-16 to finish out just to tie the Tigers.
Here's there Schedule
In order to get to 26 wins, you are basically winning or splitting every series against division leaders and rivals... I don't see the Sox having the starting pitching to do that or to pick up sweeps against the lesser teams in that list if they do drop a series here or there...
|5 years 22 weeks ago||Post Deleted||
|5 years 22 weeks ago||Video Link|
|5 years 22 weeks ago||I think we all agree that it||
I think we all agree that it wasn't a set-play, and apparently Leyland confirmed it.
|5 years 22 weeks ago||Well that pretty much answers||
Well that pretty much answers the question. I can't remember the last time I saw a first-third double steal at this level...
|5 years 23 weeks ago||Please tell me you are not an||
Please tell me you are not an actuary... the utterance of brownian motion and hypergeometric distributions still leaves me in chills.
|5 years 23 weeks ago||Minnesota Schedule||
Doing some more digging...
Its going to be an exciting September in the Central...
|5 years 23 weeks ago||SABR||
I know alot of SABR disciples would argue vehemently against your logic regarding Peavy having such an impact...
With all of the games left against division rivals, Peavy, even though he will only likely pitch in 4 or 5 games could have a large impact on such a close race...
|5 years 23 weeks ago||Looking at the schedule this||
Looking at the schedule this morning...
Remember, the last 10 games of the Tigs season are against Minny and Chicago. A 4 game lead can evaporate very quickly. Even though they are 6 back, I don't see Minnesota being out of it, with their schedule they could easily pick up two games by that stretch...
|5 years 23 weeks ago||Envious that this is||
Envious that this is launching a year too late for me. I was working in Mexico last fall and was unable to watch ANY of the football games. Thanks to this board I was able to get a few links to SOPcast which let me view 1/2 of the Notre Dame game. I would definitely have coughed up the money for this service...
|5 years 24 weeks ago||Studies should be evaluated for their assumptions||
It is interesting work, but let's not let statistics shade what it is actually telling us.
1) P-value <.01. This only confirms that there is a difference in means ( the samples are from two populations). The proportion of AC (binary) is different for 5-stars than 4 or 3. How different is not confirmed or addressed.
2) Studies are significantly weaker when using attribute data. Attribute data is Yes/no. This study uses yes he made all-conference versus no he made all-conference. This study could be made stronger by including variable data from the sample population like # of AC appearances per 5 star. THis may tie in more to a metric we are actually concerned about. All-conference votes might be another metric, although infeasible for data collection historically. (To be fair, the study mentions that there are other outputs that could be studied to evaluate recruiting rankings)
3) "Subgroups" or categories are also subjective. Brian notes that there is a very large difference between a high three star and a low three star. Using variable data in someway (ranking #, player rating (ESPN)) could provide better metrics.
Not bad work though...
|5 years 24 weeks ago||The link states that it||
The link states that it includes on the BCS conference players as a control, and neglects teams that were not in the BCS conferences for the entire period studied.
|5 years 24 weeks ago||Just because I wanted to...||
Look, mister, there's... two kinds of dumb, uh... guy that gets naked and runs out in the snow and barks at the moon, and, uh, guy who does the same thing in my living room. First one don't matter, the second one you're kinda forced to deal with.
|5 years 24 weeks ago||Indeed. Face, meet Egg.||
|5 years 25 weeks ago||Lets not cast stones...||
I was an undergrad during our national championship year. I lived on State Street. In the late summer of 98 you could set your clock by the caravan of new model SUV's to football practice each day. Lets not start casting aspersions on other programs citing circumstances that are very prevalent in our own.
|5 years 26 weeks ago||Scattershot||
1) This may be obvious to some, but Clayton Richard got the win against the Tigers last night. He was a U-M quarterback.
2) Being a quarterback / pitcher is not uncommon at the high school level. Being able to generate arm speed is necessary to a generic baseball throwing motion. For example, Drew Henson is still in the Top 5 in Michigan baseball history for strikeouts as a pitcher, even though professionally he was a third baseman.
3) Good Lord does Dufek have a long stride in that pic. What is he doing the splits? Does he always do this? How does he generate any power with his hips?
|5 years 26 weeks ago||Diallo Johnson||
Was a terrific quarterback and guard for OLSM in high school, at U-M he was utilized as a receiver and punt returner with the occasional "trickeration" downfield pass. I imagine that would have been the extent of Mr. Gardners use in that offense
|5 years 28 weeks ago||Mentiroso||
Cortes stole the phrase from Barwis.
|5 years 29 weeks ago||Adam Dunn's OBP and Slugging||
Adam Dunn's OBP and Slugging Percentage would lead the Tigers. He would also lead the team in XBH, RBI & Home Runs. I think to suggest that the tigers lineup wouldn't be upgraded with his addition isn't really defensible.
|5 years 30 weeks ago||I don't want his numbers in||
I don't want his numbers in the rafters. Let the hall-of-fame decide on his career as a whole. This guy signed a "poison-pill" contract with Carolina triggering 20 million in a bonus if his team reached the Conference finals. Something that was about 100% likely to happen if the Red Wings signed him, and very unlikely at that time in Carolina. I actually would have applauded the negotiating leverage he used if I thought it was about money, but he left money on the table when he left unrestricted. He wanted out of Detroit in a bad way. Why would the organization want to put his jersey in the rafters? Stats?
|5 years 30 weeks ago||5 goal game||
I've been to maybe 7 red wings games in my life, but the 5 goal game happened to be one of them... it was unbelievable..
|5 years 31 weeks ago||To win 90 games, the Twins||
To win 90 games, the Twins would have to play .600 baseball for the remainder of the year. I don't think they have the team for it. The twins will need to play .540 baseball (what they finished last year) to take them to 85 wins.
(but I don't think they'll even manage that without adding a bat)
|5 years 31 weeks ago||So if you love lefties with||
So if you love lefties with heat that throw strikes, you at least loved the Oliver pick, right?
|5 years 31 weeks ago||Starting pitching doesn't||
Starting pitching doesn't have to be as deep either in the playoffs, something that should comfort tigers fans if they manage to win the AL Central Pillow fight.
|5 years 31 weeks ago||The Cardinals had an 83-78||
The Cardinals had an 83-78 record. Apparently they didn't make up a rain out along the way. Their division also had two of the four worst teams in baseball in Pittsburgh and Chicago. The Brewers would have finished in last place in two of the other five divisions in baseball. (The AL & NL West) I would not call that competitive, but baseball's crazy in September / October...
|5 years 31 weeks ago||Thanks for the links, I'll||
Thanks for the links, I'll have to look into the "pitch count estimator" because apparently it debunks my theory about pitches per game.
I especially liked one of the quotes as a pretty neutral summation of this argument...
|5 years 31 weeks ago||"Mechanics" don't just define||
"Mechanics" don't just define the most effective way to generate arm speed or maintain accuracy. A significant portion of mechanics is dedicated to safely bringing that arm back to a stop. Many rotator cuff injuries stem from this act.
|5 years 39 weeks ago||Time wil tell||
I just kept thinking "Jordan Dizon" when they reached for Delmas. I hope he turns into the next Ed Reed, but I have a feeling that there's more of a chance of Maualuga being Dan Connor