|3 weeks 2 days ago||This gave me chills.||
This gave me chills.
|6 weeks 1 day ago||I literally came to MGoBlog||
I literally came to MGoBlog to post a penance thread.
In 2008, I was a senior. Michigan had been bad for a long time. The student section had basically nobody in it throughout most of the season. It was Beilein's second year.
He promised to bring donuts for the Maize Rage Core one time if we came early enough. He brought the donuts as promised before a game in October. There were probably twenty people there with only two hours to go before tipoff.
He addressed us. "Thank you guys for coming early. I need you guys this year." We gave a cursory cheer. Then - and this surprised me - he barked at us a little bit. "NO. You don't understand. Our team isn't where it needs to be. We're not very good right now, but we're going to get better. I'm not just saying it - I need you guys this year."
Flash forward to December. We beat Duke in a thriller in front of a Maize Rage that was 85% full. Before the next game, the players came out early after warmups and went into the Maize Rage and shook hands and gave high fives. I could feel the crowd slowly starting to believe.
So I went to the Maize Rage leadership and pitched an idea for a t-shirt. It was a pretty simple design - BELIEVE was written in block letters, and they cast a shadow that read "BEILEIN." The guys loved it, and we sold out in no time. I personally gave John one of the shirts, and I also was able to give one to Erin Andrews.
So it is with a heavy heart that I admit my sins and offer penance. I stopped believing.
I wish I could say I didn't know better. But the truth is, I knew better back when I was younger.
I was missing for a while, but now I'm back. I believe again.
|10 weeks 6 days ago||Note that there are 84 names||
Note that there are 84 names on this list, but one freshman appears to have been left off inadvertently. Plus also note that two non-freshman players do not appear on this list. I'm not saying, I'm just saying.
|11 weeks 2 days ago||I ACTUALLY want you to go to||
I ACTUALLY want you to go to prison for making this post.
|11 weeks 4 days ago||He was. Sorry, Brad.||
He was. Sorry, Brad.
|14 weeks 1 day ago||Many of Connoley's stats are||
Many of Connoley's stats are adjusted for opponents.
Although it is a myth that Michigan merely beat up on inferior opponents and wilted against stronger ones as a team, this criticism held true with respect to offensive rushing performance. Said differently, the defense thundercrushed Rutgers, but also played great against Ohio State. But the rushing offense only looked good when the opponents were bad.
|14 weeks 5 days ago||It is unethical to follow||
It is unethical to follow rules when the rules are unethical.
|14 weeks 5 days ago||You know why.||
You know why.
|14 weeks 5 days ago||I respect this point, and||
I respect this point, and sort of agree. But on the other hand, the war isn't over - the age of the dinosaurs is close to over, but is not quite over yet.
|14 weeks 5 days ago||Anybody else ready for||
Anybody else ready for Michigan to overtly, Fab Five / SEC-style pay recruits? I am.
This isn't a case of falling into the common bad actor fallacy (that's the fallacy where you say "well if he's doing evil I can do evil). Because paying players for their labor isn't evil.
I feel like Michigan is bending over backwards to compete without breaking an unethical rule within a system where nobody else follows that unethical rule. And this effort, paradoxically, creates all these perverse incentives.
Quick, answer with your gut - Would you rather pay Aubrey Solomon 150K for his committment and break the rule? Or pay (hypothetically) Aubrey Solomon's high school coach 150K to "do a job" that isn't real and benefits only that coach? Which is more ethical?
And yes, I'd feel the same way about the matter if I knew that would mean OSU and MSU would do it too.
Let's just end this charade.
|14 weeks 6 days ago||(1) Watson and Washington||
(1) Watson and Washington were each rated more highly than Sebastian is.
(2) Clark isn't guaranteed to get his sixth year, true. But even if Sebastian commits, he won't likely be ready to play his first year. So Clark's spot on the depth chart matters least for deciding whether to recruit Sebastian.
(3) I agree, they have. But all I can do is offer my opinion on the state of the team and its needs (which should be afforded the weight of a typical online commenter), and I don't get why they feel they need another CB. Another S I could understand.
(5) I don't think this adage applies here. He plays for Cheshire Academy - the same team as Tarik Black, who is a borderline top 100 player.
|14 weeks 6 days ago||I trust the coaches, so I'm||
I trust the coaches, so I'm fine with it.
But I don't understand it:
Now, there's tons of information I don't have. Maybe Sebastian is a legendary effort or workout guy who will inspire the team. Maybe he's such a high character person Harbaugh wants him around the locker room. Maybe there's some technique deficiency the coaches have spotted that they feel they can iron out. But if I had a vote (and I most certainly do not and should not), Sebastian would be a "hard pass" for me.
|15 weeks 20 hours ago||He does. But if he tried to||
He does. But if he tried to commit tomorrow I do not believe we'd take him (be able to take him might be the better way to put it).
|15 weeks 1 day ago||Updated after Harris||
Updated after Harris reaffirmed to Alabama.
|15 weeks 1 day ago||Respectfully, we're not doing||
Respectfully, we're not doing this here.
|15 weeks 2 days ago||I eagerly invite you to post||
I eagerly invite you to post your own corrections/clarifications or individual takes with this list. You da real Swim Lane OG.
Casual posters - this guy is the king of recruiting information synthesis. If he posts it, it's worth thinking about.
|15 weeks 2 days ago||You really, really want to||
You really, really want to delete this post. Trust me.
|15 weeks 4 days ago||Well... that's definitive.||
Well... that's definitive.
|16 weeks 10 hours ago||I hate to throw water on this||
I hate to throw water on this thread, but there's some vague (but extant!) smoke about Wheatley leaving with Fisch for UCLA. That... would be a big problem.
|16 weeks 10 hours ago||I'd give this one a hard||
I'd give this one a hard pass. Absolutely not. As an additional "hell no," recall that Loeffler was the QB coach who was hired instead of Harbaugh back in the twilight of the Carr years.
|16 weeks 10 hours ago||Let's review Roman's||
Let's review Roman's sabermetric profile right quick.
Roman coached at the following pro and college stops:
CAROLINA (1995-2001): Offensive Line Assistant
Can't judge too much just because he wasn't in charge of the offensive line and there were surely other factors at play considering the Panthers were a newly minted expansion team. So let's ignore this stop.
TEXANS (2002-2005): TE and QB Coach
Coached under Dom Capers. Team was pretty terrible throughout his entire tenure. In 2002, David Carr was ghastly, but TE Billy Miller had a highly capable year with nearly 80 targets and 600 yards receiving (Miller was the highest ranked TE in DYAR that season. Carr's performance in 2003 improved slightly, but Miller's declined and the Texans alternate, something named Jabari Holloway, actually started the majority of games at TE. 2004 was a much better year for both the team and for the units under Roman's control - Carr had his only decent professional year (~61%/7.6 YPA/16 TD 14 INT), when he was actually roughly a replacement-level NFL player. The team plummeted into utter garbage for 2005, however, and Capers was fired along with his staff.
RAVENS (2006-2007): Offensive Line Assistant
As above, there's not much we can read into here. For what little it's worth, BAL's offensive lines weren't terribly good during either 2006 or 2007. BAL finished ranked 21 in adjusted line yards in 2006, although they were the second best team under FO's adjusted sack rate that year. 2007 wasn't much better, as the Ravens ranked 27th in adjusted line yards and 22nd in adjusted sack rate. Yikes. Overall, not a great stop, which might explain...
Holy Spirit High School (2008): Head Coach
Stanford (2009-2010): TE and Offensive Tackles Coach
Here's where things get interesting. Obviously Roman doesn't necessarily get complete credit as he was only a positional coach, but Stanford's offensive output between 09 and 10 might surprise you:
S&P+ - 6th rated overall offense, improving from 31st the year prior. 12th rushing offense, 7th passing offense
FEI - 4th rated overall offense, improving from 31st the year prior. 6th in offensive efficiency (pass and rush together)
S&P+ - 3rd rated overall offense, 30th rushing offense, 2nd passing offense
FEI - 1st rated overall offense, 2nd in offensive efficiency
SAN FRANCISCO (2011-2014): Offensive Coordinator
Intersected with Jim Harbaugh's tenure, obviously. Performance was good to great throughout:
2011 - 18th overall offense, improving from 24th the year prior. 13th passing offense, 24th rushing offense in DVOA
2012 - 5th overall offense, 6th passing offense, 3rd rushing offense in DVOA
2013 - 8th overall offense, 4th passing offense, 14th rushing offense in DVOA
2014 - 16th overall offense, 21 passing offense, 8th rushing offense in DVOA
BUFFALO (2015-2016): Offensive Coordinator
Here, from a strictly statistical standpoint, it was baffling to me that he caught the blame for Buffalo's modest success. 2015 was a tremendous improvement and surprise:
2015 - 9th overall offense, improving from 26th the year prior. 12th passing offense, 2nd rushing offense in DVOA
2016 - 8th overall offense, 4th passing offense, 1st rushing offense (keeping in mind he was fired early in the year)
Overall, I think this is a very strong statistical resume. I wouldn't be upset if Roman joined as a full-time offensive coordinator. He'd be my second choice of available coaches after Kevin Wilson, with the full understanding that Harbaugh wouldn't probably rank those two the same.
|16 weeks 12 hours ago||...Kevin Wilson. Yeah, I||
Yeah, I know. But I don't care. This would be my dream.
|16 weeks 1 day ago||No Dawson OR Kugler? Holy||
No Dawson OR Kugler?
Holy shit. I'm trying to trust the system but this seems insane.
|18 weeks 5 days ago||It's "high," but maybe not||
It's "high," but maybe not "would commit right now" high.
Based on everything I've read and inferences drawn from the same, I believe that (1) Harris has told Michigan's coaches he is committing to Michigan, (2) Michigan's coaches don't want four running backs, and (3) Michigan is confident that if Samuels leaves, they may be able to replace him with Benjamin. As a result, I think Dillon was the odd man out, but we would have been willing to retain his commitment if he'd have been willing to reaffirm it.
I like Dillon as a prospect, but I consider his skill level significantly behind Harris and Samuels, and a little behind Benjamin's.
|19 weeks 5 days ago||Proposterously filthy tape.||
Proposterously filthy tape.
|20 weeks 6 days ago||Lock this up - there is no||
Lock this up - there is no way whatsoever Colorado, Oklahoma, or Oklahoma State go and we don't. The resume difference is horrifying (except for CO, but we'd have a head-to-head win).
|21 weeks 21 hours ago||What the hell is going on in||
What the hell is going on in this post
|21 weeks 1 day ago||Had a great experience. Fan||
Had a great experience. Fan unpleasantness was minimal, and the majority were welcoming and wonderful. Would go back to Columbus again.
|21 weeks 2 days ago||Also interested in this||
Also interested in this
|21 weeks 3 days ago||This owns.||
|21 weeks 4 days ago||Welp.||
|22 weeks 15 hours ago||This is savage, fam.||
This is savage, fam.
|22 weeks 3 days ago||READER QUESTION: Are we||
READER QUESTION: Are we likely to see a Michigan defense this good again within the next 10 years? 20 years? 50 years? Ever?
|23 weeks 14 hours ago||Quick WR screen against a||
Quick WR screen against a cover 2 defense with Desmond King is... not advisable.
|23 weeks 17 hours ago||I hate posting this, but a||
I hate posting this, but a reputable poster at the Edge of the Internet has confirmed - but only to the extent that his sources have told him this is true - that Speight's collar bone is broken.
I've been a professional mentally ill Michigan fan and message board scourer for about five years now. Based on my previous experience panning for nuggets of actual information from across the internet, I regretfully conclude that the weight of the evidence points to this being true at this point.
Hopefully, this can be chalked up either to (1) an echo chamber effect or (2) faulty information delivered to a root source.
|29 weeks 1 day ago||Rewatch the video. I||
Rewatch the video.
I acknowledge there's a chance that Rushing simply drops the football, but Hornibrook does a great job putting the football in the second-most effective place he could have. If Rushing doesn't bork the catch that's six and we have a tie game... unless they went for two.
|29 weeks 1 day ago||...the Newsome injury,||
...the Newsome injury, tho.
Best of luck. Hope it looked worse than it was.
|29 weeks 1 day ago||I think Lewis's interception||
I think Lewis's interception is the most amazing pick I've ever seen.
BTW - this probably belongs in a snowflake thread, but I want to share it here instead. Viewing this in the stands, most fans seemed upset that he didn't knock it down. I don't think attempting to bat the ball was the appropriate play under the circumstances.
It's 4th and 10. Wisconsin has elected to go for the touchdown instead of the first down, and has told Rushing, positioned in the backfield outside of the split end, to run a fly with Robert Wheelwright (the split end) running a post from the line of scrimmage. Thomas has either deep thirds or deep halfs coverage, with McCray lined up on Wheelwright. Lewis has Rushing.
At the play, Rushing slips his route behind Wheelwright's. McCray plays this like a boss and keeps inside Wheelwright step-for-step - the moment Wheelwright reveals that he's got the post, McCray feels secure because Hornibrook has nowhere to put the football. Inexplicably, however, Thomas (minus fucking 1) has decided that Wheelwright is the biggest threat on the play and completely sells out on covering that route. The effect is that Lewis is one on one with Rushing without any safety help whatsoever. And Lewis knows that because he's playing proper technique - behind and inside his man with eyes upfield - and probably silently cursing Thomas while he stares at his nameplate and his back.
The other thing Lewis sees? Hornibrook, who never looks off Rushing from the moment Wheelwright breaks on his post and McCray has removed him from the play. So Lewis now knows that one of three things can happen: (1) Hornibrook throws a bad pass and the game is over. (2) Hornibrook throws a catchable ball and he needs to get a PBU or a INT. (3) Hornibrook throws a catchable ball and Wisconsin scores a TD.
Hornibrook throws the ball, and Lewis watches him do so. It's not a moonshot arc where only Rushing can catch it, but it's quite literally the next best thing - a fluttery soft pitch/catch where Rushing can grab it in stride. One slight wrinkle - it's going to Rushing's back shoulder instead of inside. Rushing will need to adjust to grab it, but if he does it's a touchdown, yo.
Lewis (who, remember, is playing inside and behind his man) knows now that his "choice" isn't really a choice at all - make a play on the ball or lose the game. But because he's inside and behind his man but the pass is outside and away, slapping away at the football has dire potential consequences - if the ball is popped up in the air, Rushing could very well make a great play on it because it's probably going to shoot up in the air towards the visitor's sideline, which is the very place Rushing has to adjust to catch the ball anyway. So now the only 'safe place" to bat the ball is inside and upfield... which is precisely where Jourdan is in relation to Rushing.
So Lewis elevates, gets a hand on the ball (!!!), and now needs to catch it and keep it from going behind him (which is to say upfield and towards the sideline). In the act of doing so, he has cradled it against his hip. So now the only way to turn this into a PBU is to actively try and "drop" it, which risks either giving Rushing some weirdo bounce shot at making an Immaculate Reception, or risks giving the shitty officials the opportunity to decide that he fumbled.
So just hold on, young man. Don't worry about the optimally effective choice given the down and distance. You made an appropriate business decision, considering all involved parties. In the process, you made one of the greatest interceptions of all time, and you just won the damn game.
|29 weeks 1 day ago||EVERYONE GO LOOK AT OUR||
EVERYONE GO LOOK AT OUR DEFENSIVE S&P RIGHT NOW RIGHT NOW RIGHT NOW
|29 weeks 2 days ago||I thought it was cool when||
I thought it was cool when JBB cocked his head back and roared out "DESTINY IS CALLING ME" along with the student section when everyone was singing along to Mr. Brightside near the end of the fourth quarter.
|29 weeks 2 days ago||Something that's been||
Something that's been puzzling me for a while - Magnuson is an average pass blocker and an average run blocker, and he's a little slight. Why not play him at LT and Bredeson/JBB at RT? My guess is that it's just plain not gonna happen - we would have heard about Magnuson's versatility if he was capable of winning that job. But he just seems like his skillset and abilities are ideally suited for that position out of all the remaining options.
|29 weeks 4 days ago||Our passing down success rate||
Our passing down success rate is near-legendary. Just in awe at our defensive efficiency. Defensive explosiveness not as great, however.
|30 weeks 14 hours ago||Well... hope... that goes||
Well... hope... that goes better than it has so far.
|30 weeks 18 hours ago||Our ability to get home with||
Our ability to get home with rushing four will determine this game. SO I FEEL OKAY.
|30 weeks 21 hours ago||It doesn't hurt us per se.||
It doesn't hurt us per se. What I think it does is remove a strength of the team - when we go nickel with Lewis in the slot and Peppers field side, that was formerly the best secondary in the country by a wide margin. Now we probably don't have a lethal nickel package any longer and instead it will be merely above average.
Where I think this really hurts us is against OSU. Dammit.
|30 weeks 2 days ago||There's still time, but 5.6||
There's still time, but 5.6 YPA is... not good.
Again, though - plenty of time to improve. And the ground game owned today, so there was plenty to cheer for.
|31 weeks 6 hours ago||The D's rushing success rate||
The D's rushing success rate is... jaw dropping. Awe inspiring. Amazing.
|31 weeks 1 day ago||So every week I watch this at||
So every week I watch this at half speed with my old coaching skipwheel. Thoughts:
|31 weeks 1 day ago||I like looking at early||
I like looking at early season five factor box score metrics as opposed to straight up rankings in the early season because the rankings are still weighted based on the preseason.
Click for link to Google Docs spreadsheet:
What's good is that Michigan absolutely dominates its opponents in terms of defensive success rate:
What's bad is that our offensive success rate... is really, really average no matter who we play. It's not, however, that terrible compared to other opponents:
What's surprising is that in terms of success rate, we actually had our best game against Colorado. Note that we held them to the lowest success rate of any of our three opponents, whereas we had a higher success rate against their defense than we had against UCF's.
|32 weeks 1 day ago||I was a freshman at City High||
I was a freshman at City High School in Grand Rapids. We were in a history class with a teacher whose name I won't use here. Somebody came in to our room and told us that something wild was happening in New York. Our teacher - who was well-intentioned - told us that we couldn't watch the news on the classroom TV because the media would "play this over and over" to "make money" over the next few weeks, and we'd learn about it then.
I still have dreams where I scream at him to turn the TV on.
|32 weeks 3 days ago||THAT'S the reason you don't||
THAT'S the reason you don't rob a bank?
|32 weeks 3 days ago||This is a correct statement||
This is a correct statement of the rule. It's neither here nor there, but I feel this rule SHOULD be amended so that a player may receive a 6th year of eligibility even if he takes a voluntary redshirt so long as the player is unable to compete in his 5th year due to injury.
|32 weeks 3 days ago||If campaigning for additional||
If campaigning for additional eligibility is effective, I don't understand why you'd be proud of not doing it.
|32 weeks 3 days ago||Although it's obviously||
Although it's obviously violates the way the rule is supposed to work, I'm glad it happened from a perspective of "fairness" or "justice" from Davis's perspective. A world in which 6th years are granted when you have a season-ender as a 5th year is a better world.
If I was Mario Ojemudia I'd be extremely pissed, though.
|32 weeks 4 days ago||Why doesn't MSU do a better||
Why doesn't MSU do a better job with recruiting? Is it the personalities of the coaches? The fan environment?
|33 weeks 4 days ago||Happy to. Michigan has had||
Happy to. Michigan has had its ass beat consistently by MSU for years, excepting the last game and 2012, which was a stalemate of ineptitude and basically the "shruggie" emoticon turned to life. I'm not dishonest with Michigan's place vis a vis MSU in the college football stratosphere over the last decade.
But coopting a piece of our program's most cherished traditions and turning it into a hackneyed slogan isn't what a superior opponent does. Declaring supremacy over Michigan is unnecessary because it's obvious. Plus, MSU was in the frickin' playoffs last year. So why are they talking about Michigan at all?
It's because MSU is a pest. Pest-dom is part of its nature.
|33 weeks 4 days ago||Genius. Perfect. Flawless.||
Genius. Perfect. Flawless. 10/10.
You deal with bullies by confronting them. You deal with pests by ignoring them.
|33 weeks 5 days ago||Shit. Thanks for the info,||
Shit. Thanks for the info, though.
|34 weeks 6 days ago||No, that's the PEDO room.||
No, that's the PEDO room.
|34 weeks 6 days ago||He will take you. If you run,||
He will take you.
If you run, he will chase you.
|35 weeks 15 hours ago||Thank you. I will be sending||
Thank you. I will be sending (yet another) donation soon. Your podcast content is absolutely excellent.
|36 weeks 10 hours ago||The burst off the line is||
The burst off the line is very good, but nothing awe inspiring. But the punch was jaw-dropping. Completely stunned Bredeson and could have caused him to drop his arms.
|36 weeks 3 days ago||This is savage. Our edits||
This is savage. Our edits are the best.
|36 weeks 4 days ago||I worked during school, but I||
I worked during school, but I actually agree. This is a perfect example of the ludicrous moral hazard presently at play in our system. Great analogy - I'll be stealing it.
|36 weeks 4 days ago||"Student loans aren't a||
"Student loans aren't a problem because, if you go into public service, you can get them forgiven after 10 years! Also, I assume "forgiven" means that the debt just disappears into thin air!"
Congratulations for living frugally. I mean that - it's very admirable. Now enjoy paying off everyone else's "forgiven" debt in decade or so.
|36 weeks 4 days ago||Bingo. 1.3 trillion is the||
Bingo. 1.3 trillion is the amount of outstanding student loan debt in the United States. 5% would be crippling. 17% is a catastrophe.
|36 weeks 4 days ago||The bubble will never pop||
The bubble will never pop because there's nothing to "pop." The loans are federally guaranteed, and the Department of Education now loans the most toxic loans directly. There's no bank to go bust. Instead, the bill will go to the tax man, who will pass costs along to you.
Thanks for paying for your kids' medical school. You'll be glad to know that you'll be paying for your neighbors' kids' medical school next.
|36 weeks 4 days ago||Respectfully, that's not the||
Respectfully, that's not the problem. That doesn't mean that we haven't subjected millions of post ~2003 college attendees and grads to crushing levels of debt; we have. This will devastate debtors and their families. But the short-sighted, stop-gap "solutions" to the cost of attendance problem will likely create economic catastrophe for the entire country very soon. Both Republican and Democratic administrations are responsible for these horrific policy missteps.
It's too long to comprehensively outline here, but two things happened within the past decade to create this problem. First, in 2010 the Department of Education began serving as a "direct lender" of most student loans issued in this country, especially the most toxic loans. Second, the federal government began offering "income-based" repayment plans in 2006. This was done to allow student debtors room to breathe, but the plans also require the federal government to discharge all debt remaining after a period of 10, 20, or 25 years depending on the specifics of the plan. It may be ludicrous to imagine paying back student loans for 25 years, but millions of Americans must - they have no other choice but to use these plans. And who will pay for it? All of us. Who won't? The schools that charged megabucks and farted these debtors out with useless degrees in a saturated market. They already got their money and it's been spent, thank you.
There are 1.3 trillion dollars of federally-guaranteed student debt currently outstanding. And debts that can't be repaid by the debtors won't be. So you will. Open wide.
|36 weeks 4 days ago||The cost of American higher||
The cost of American higher education has been an issue I've been extensively studying for years. I refuse to break the "no-politics" rule so I can't give you the full harangue, but the bottom line is that our system is so horrifically broken that it could some day cripple our economy.
Please share the pain you're currently feeling with as many people as possible. We need to stop this problem, because it may already be an unconquerable leviathan and it's only going to get exponentially worse.
|37 weeks 1 day ago||There's no evidence that this||
There's no evidence that this is a legitimate fear. Although I think we'd know by now if Kugler was destined to be a superstar, lots of offensive linemen have the light go on during their redshirt junior seasons.
|37 weeks 1 day ago||Assuming this list is||
Assuming this list is accurate, this is unequivocally bad news.
|37 weeks 1 day ago||Favorite "Moneyball body"||
Favorite "Moneyball body" player: Nick Volk, who, at 5'10" 250, must either suffer from a rare bone density disease or be shaped like one of the ghosts from Pac-Man.
|37 weeks 1 day ago||If accurate, I don't think||
If accurate, I don't think that's a good sign. Yes, I remember the Roster Weight Rule.
|37 weeks 2 days ago||You commented about it||
You commented about it earlier, but I think it will very likely be Mike Weber. I agree that Weber was lied to with respect to his coach, but... well... as unfair as the situation is to the athlete, Karan Higdon better be good.
I remember Brian Cook said on a podcast once that he didn't think losing Weber was a big deal. He reasoned that OSU wouldn't ever hurt for a running back, and - at the time - he and Ace didn't think he was too big of a step down to Higdon. It's impossible to judge someone for calling their shot like that, but I think both of those premises will be proven really, really wrong this year.
|38 weeks 3 days ago||I love these. Very nice||
I love these. Very nice work.
|38 weeks 6 days ago||He showed stellar promise on||
He showed stellar promise on offense as a high schooler. As I recall, OSU recruited him as a WR.
|39 weeks 15 hours ago||The Roundtree catch figure is||
The Roundtree catch figure is spectacular. I'm not a "visual memory" guy but I can still close my eyes and see him body catch that throw from the TV angle. There's something very unusual about both the trajectory of the ball and the way he shields it that makes the image unforgettable.
|46 weeks 6 days ago||I don't see the comparison||
I don't see the comparison with Charlton. Charlton's appeal mostly came from his frame and athleticism. Hatcher is a much better football player than Charlton was at the same stage, although I think Hatcher is also much closer to his ceiling.
|49 weeks 4 days ago||It's how it will eventually||
It's how it will eventually unfold.
Public opinion is turning against the prohibition on player compensation. In a world where college sports is as big as it presently is, it's tough to defend an artificial restraint on trade.
Eventually, a coach will speak out against this. It's no skin off his nose, especially to the extent that he can benefit from a few years of not being part of the camp that doesn't pay players and getting the top talent. In fifty years, there will be a statute of that coach no matter how bad his teams were or how slimy his previous reputation was.
Did you know, for example, that in the early forties there was a debate about whether it was unethical to provide college football players with scholarships? Do you know which coaches were for it? Do you know which were against it?
I also assert that he has no other choice. He's a dead man walking unless this works. So yes, it's exactly what I'd recommend for him.
|49 weeks 4 days ago||This is the political move. I||
This is the political move.
I think, if you're Freeze, you know you're fucked unless you do something. So I think he needs to take a risky gamble like this to blow the whole thing up. Were I him, I'd say something like:
"Okay. You know what, we did it. We paid a kid's light bill. I knew it was against the rules and we did it anyway, because the rule's aren't moral and we're trying to do what's right. Everyone else does this too, by the way, but they're all throwing stones at me in an attempt to take down a emerging program. We did this, I knew about it, we'll keep doing this, and that's a promise."
Regardless of whether any of those words are true or genuine, it completely reframes the NCAA's investigation. He's been transformed from the bad guy to the good guy, and now the NCAA needs to decide whether to double down or ease off.
Ironically, he could emerge from this the "hero" of a new era in college football.
|51 weeks 5 days ago||I absolutely love these.||
I absolutely love these. 10/10. For me, it strikes the perfect balance between tradition and modernity.
I know this is like arguing about religion, but I simply cannot fathom how much many Michigan fans oppose small changes to the uniform.
|1 year 1 week ago||Good for Michigan, bad for||
Good for Michigan, bad for MSU and for the Big Ten as a basketball conference next year. Davis has creepy athleticism and elite length. Had he exploded into a 15/9 guy with 2 or 3 blocks per game next year I wouldn't have been surprised.
|1 year 5 weeks ago||It was, yes.||
It was, yes.
|1 year 6 weeks ago||We used to call potential||
We used to call potential invitees "no-adds" if they were unlikely to make a party better.
|1 year 6 weeks ago||I sort of agree with this.||
I sort of agree with this. When you have three great years like Beilein did between 2012 and 2014, I think you make a substantial deposit into the "sports fan goodwill" account. But I also think that his teams underacheived spectacularly this year and the last, and there's no sugar coating the unmitigated disaster that was the 2016 recruiting class. Those are like withdrawals from that goodwill account. I agree with you that fans who are ready to pull the plug now are being unrealistic and unnecessarily harsh given teh entirety of his record. But I also feel that the account's funds are dwindling.
The question posed is whether a third straight season like 2015 and 2016 would put Beilien's job in jeopardy. I think that it would, and I don't think that's unreasonable at that point.
|1 year 7 weeks ago||Absent garbage time, extreme||
Absent garbage time, extreme fatigue, or (I hesitate to even speak the words) injury, I forsee Peppers playing every defensive snap this season. So the question really is whether you'd rather see Delano Hill or (OLB LINEBACKER HERE) on the field on 2nd down and short yardage.
|1 year 8 weeks ago||This surprised me. Good||
This surprised me. Good stats.
|1 year 8 weeks ago||What, if anything, can WE do||
What, if anything, can WE do to resume this content?
If the users are collectively able to sponsor the programming, can we get another season of MGoRadio?
To clarify my question, is this an issue with your relationship with UGP or is this not being able to use UGP as a sponsor? If the users could replace UGP's income stream through donations/kickstartering, could MGoRadio resume?
|1 year 8 weeks ago||Not something I'd tweet, but||
Not something I'd tweet, but Jimmy doesn't use half measures.
|1 year 8 weeks ago||Solid Verbal is, in my||
Solid Verbal is, in my opinion, the best podcast on the internet.
Ty is my favorite too, but Dan has grown on me because he doesn't take himself too seriously.
|1 year 8 weeks ago||This is making neurons||
This is making neurons wayyyyy in the back of my brain connect, but I'm pretty sure either Lorenz or Webb mentioned Viney several months ago as an absolute dynamo of a recruiter. I think it was specifically mentioned in relation to the Caleb Kelley recruitment and it may have had something to do with having tremendous familiarity with the west coast in general and Fresno in particular.
If I'm right - and I'm pretty sure I am - that's a compelling piece of evidence that this guy is the real deal. At that time, he wasn't being considered with respect to a Michigan job at all.
|1 year 9 weeks ago||Returning players is a very||
Returning players is a very predictive metric. But it should be done the way Connelly does it, not the way Steele does it. Connelly's takes account of actual production per player instead of just counting a guy, which is pretty useless because "starter" doesn't really indicate whether a player splits time 50/50 or plays every snap.
|1 year 9 weeks ago||You're right in that we can't||
You're right in that we can't be sure whether Zordich or Jackson is the "better" DB coach. But if you had to bet on which one was the superior coach, Jackson would be the safer bet. Points in his favor include:
Depending on who the replacement is, this could be a huge loss. I'd also be pretty pissed if I was Lavert Hill right now.
|1 year 9 weeks ago||A couple of people have said||
A couple of people have said this, but I can't escape the concusion that Wheatley absolutely must play OT. The roster won't allow otherwise, I don't think.
As for the remaining players, I think it's probably Johnson. Anytime Michigan wins a head-to-head recruiting showdown with FSU, the player at the center of that battle is going to get my vote.
|1 year 10 weeks ago||Kamala Harris, bro||
Kamala Harris, bro
|1 year 10 weeks ago||Regardless of whether you||
Regardless of whether you were conservative or liberal, Scalia's legal ideologies probably shaped your life more directly than any other jurist of the last thirty years. I'm no textualist, but he was one of the sharpest legal minds in history.
|1 year 10 weeks ago||This is the "money graph" I||
This is the "money graph" I made in a similar post comparing OSU, Michigan, MSU, and PSU with respect to their recruiting classes. You can see that we recruit the top-end guys at the same weight as our peers. But the distance between us and Ohio State comes with respect to our 11-18th best recruits. The gap between Ahmir Mitchell (our tenth best recruit) and Brad Hawkins (our eleventh) is massive. But OSU trails off slowly with four-stars all the way down. Then the tail ends of our class are similarly rated.
|1 year 11 weeks ago||Although this is a very||
Although this is a very common practice in FCS and D-II football, I have literally never heard of it occurring at the FBS level. I think it may not be possible.
|1 year 11 weeks ago||I think the number needs to||
I think the number needs to be 100, but yes. There are few times where a fix for a problem is obvious, but this is one of those times.
|1 year 11 weeks ago||i love podcasts so fucking||
i love podcasts so fucking much
|1 year 11 weeks ago||THE PEOPLE. DEMAND. SIGNING||
THE PEOPLE. DEMAND. SIGNING DAY PODCAST!
(but seriously brian i love the podcasts so much. never stop doing themmmm)
|1 year 11 weeks ago||There is no way on God's||
There is no way on God's great green earth that Gary plays behind Charlton at SDE. In fact, I think Gary could push Charlton off the field in short yardage even at WDE.
I see it like this:
This, by the way, is exactly why I thought it was a good idea for Henry to leave. Henry would obviously have made our team better, but he would have ended up seeing his snaps cut in his senior year. That's a bad situation for him. Good luck in the draft, brother.
|1 year 11 weeks ago||I love giving MSU shit as||
I love giving MSU shit as much as the next guy, but it takes guts to tell the top guy in your class that you may pull his offer because of his behavior. Lots of schools wouldn't do that.
|1 year 12 weeks ago||Murphy. Murphy is an LT.||
Murphy. Murphy is an LT.
|1 year 12 weeks ago||All in the game. No hate for||
All in the game.
No hate for the kid. But this is not great for our class. We were already short on linemen.
|1 year 12 weeks ago||A kinder, gentler Brian.||
A kinder, gentler Brian.
|1 year 12 weeks ago||Based on the reputable,||
Based on the reputable, non-homer recruiting people I like, there's a spectrum of recruiting shadiness that all teams fall on somewhere. We've been worrying about our place on that spectrum recently. But Ole Miss and Clemson sit firmly on one end of it.
I'm not worried, but I'd have preferred a visit to Alabama.
|1 year 12 weeks ago||He's from McKeesport...||
He's from McKeesport... Sound familiar? It probably will after tomorrow.
|1 year 12 weeks ago||Complete conjecture: this is||
Complete conjecture: this is what Tyrone Wheatley was upset about in early December back when there were rumors that he was frustrated with the staff's "disorganization."
|1 year 12 weeks ago||...or maybe I AM doing the||
...or maybe I AM doing the logic game.
We have 24 commits. Based on the "dark web," one is unlikely to qualify. Two others, Elliott and N. Johnson, are admittedly shaky. That puts us at 21 firmly committed spots, leaving nine potentially vacant spots absent any surprise flip losses. Based on those spots, I think the board looks like so:
Then you pool the players we remain in for. As you can see from the pool above, it's worth designating five of these guys as "takes no matter what" - the four BPA slots plus Gary. I think, based on announcement timing and a variety of other factors, that those guys are sorted as follows:
TAKES NO MATTER WHAT:
Then you have the other dudes we're in on, in no particular order:
And the players with whom our position is mysterious:
Next, you look at the order of committments. It's my theory that some commits have been told to announce sooner because they're takes, whereas others have been told to announce on signing day because earlier takes go first (Gary is an obvious exception). Once players hear this, they're either doing what they want ("no thanks, I'll announce when I want, coach") or playing along.
If I'm right (it happens occasionally), the following "rules" emerge:
1.) Hudson is announcing tomorrow. I think that means that Hudson one of the coaches' two BPAs. Hudson takes a spot.
2.) McDoom is rumored to be announcing tomorrow. If McDoom commits as expected, he takes the slot spot and Johnson gets in only as a BPA. Young's only chance becomes as a CB or BPA.
3.) Fuller announces next Monday. Fuller would fill a CB spot. If he commits elsewhere, we put the full court on Hill, who's probably a "must take" anyway. If Hill commits elsewhere, Young gets the spot as a CB. I think this is Young's best shot at being in the class.
4.) If Asiasi commits, I think we probably don't take Allen or Eubanks's commitments.
5.) I think we'll take both non-Gary DTs if we have room, although neither seems very likely.
6.) I think Murphy, Young, Nordin, and Stewart are takes only if there's room available. I think we lead for all and if there is room I think they'll commit.
|1 year 12 weeks ago||This is it exactly, and, in||
This is it exactly, and, in my opinion, one of few posts that should be read in this thread.
|1 year 12 weeks ago||1.) DPJ IS a must get||
1.) DPJ IS as close as it comes to a "must get" recruit. When an in state kid from your pipeline school is one of the most talented guys to emerge from your state in a long time and plays a position of need, that's a big flashing sign saying *TOP PRIORITY." The fact that he's currently favoring another school is the staff's job to fix.
2.) That being said, if OSU is his top choice because of what we did to Swenson and Weaver, that's ludicrous. Pot to kettle, bro.
|1 year 12 weeks ago||That's good timing.||
That's good timing.
|1 year 12 weeks ago||Seems like D. Johnson is||
Seems like D. Johnson is out.
I think you must take one of Hill or Fuller (or both).
To a lesser extent, I think you must take Elliot or Tagaloa, not both.
If you have a shot at Tagaloa, that likely means Asiasi too.
I think Murphy is the first take if you can't get Tagaloa, Hill, Fuller and Asiasi (which would be hard).
This means there are a limited set of possibilities, but I'm not doing the logic game.
|1 year 12 weeks ago||As you note, you should||
As you note, you should evaluate any recruit based on a number of different factors, including recruiting service rankings, offer list, size, and highlight films.
Hudson's rankings are mixed, he doesn't have great size and his offer list is merely good. But in my profoundly amateur opinion, his tape is absolutely top-notch, A+ stuff. Absolutely pops off the screen.
|1 year 12 weeks ago||HILL. HILL. HILL. *pounds||
HILL. HILL. HILL. *pounds table rhythmically*
|1 year 12 weeks ago||We really need Hill or||
We really need Hill or Fuller. And I'm always partial to a Detroit kid, game being equal.
|1 year 12 weeks ago||I also have looked at his||
I also have looked at his tape. I like Uche a lot. Very good first step, but his best asset is that he's very decisive and once he makes up his mind where he needs to be he arrives without wasted motion. Doesn't drive through tackling well, which may be a concern about his desire for contact (or could be an acclimation to the game thing). Biggest thing I didn't like was his strength. He makes great initial contact but doesn't really get low and dig out blockers.
This is a lock for a redshirt, in my view. But I like his tape more than Johnson's. Very happy with this pickup.
|1 year 13 weeks ago||Call me Rosenberg, but you're||
Call me Rosenberg, but you're stretching too much
|1 year 13 weeks ago||Ambry Thomas... is probably a||
Ambry Thomas... is probably a goner. Yes. And that totally sucks, because he's one hell of a player.
Hope I'm wrong, there. I understand he's a good dude too.
|1 year 13 weeks ago||It really, really seems like||
It really, really seems like Connor Murphy will be blue if the staff thinks he's a take. To be honest, it's seemed that way since the beginning of his recruitment.
I don't have the same skepticism about Lavert Hill. I genuinely think it's about a 50/50 shot, but I don't think it's as bleak as people are saying. As for DPJ, he's a Cass Tech kid, not a King kid. DPJ is a must get recruit and is neither a shoo-in nor a goner.
|1 year 13 weeks ago||I've often thought that||
I've often thought that Magnus should be a "special contributor" to MGoBlog and cross-post his scouting reports immediately after someone commits. I really like Ace's write-ups because they provide a run down of each player's vitals and his recruiting reputation, but then I always have to click over to go see Magnus to get an assessment of the player's absolute ability.
Briiiiiiian? Maaaaaaaaagnus? What do you think?
|1 year 13 weeks ago||/*\ RUH ROH /*\||
/*\ RUH ROH /*\
|1 year 13 weeks ago||I see a lot of freaking out||
I see a lot of freaking out about this, and I know Texas's 247 guys have predicted this means that a flip is imminent. But does anyone have anyone respectable who is predicting doom and gloom? Harbaugh's in-house visit tonight bodes well, in my view.
|1 year 13 weeks ago||To the extent anyone from the||
To the extent anyone from the MGoBlog staff views this comment, I for one do not mind the advertising at all if it means more audio content. For people on the go or who drive frequently, listening to a podcast is a much easier way to consume the blog. In fact, I'll do one farther - I'd be willing to PAY for a "MGoPod" weekly feed. Anything that means more content will be happily endured by this fan.
|1 year 13 weeks ago||The critical issue for me is||
The critical issue for me is when Swenson knew he should seek other options. If he learned when we learned (which is to say recently), then I feel that Michigan's handling of his recruitment was unethical. If he learned way earlier but wanted to "Dele Harding" it, I'm less sympathetic.
To those who feel differently, I respectfully disagree but I can see your points. But I won't find your names if I go back to posts complaining about Meyer, Saban, or Miles doing this, will I? Because nothing about the dirty side of recruiting has changed except for Michigan's willingness to participate in it more fully.
|1 year 13 weeks ago||I very much hope this is||
I very much hope this is significant.
Although I have as much faith as most of this site that the staff can turn O'Korn into a B+ or better quarterback, we simply cannot take the chance that 2016 is wasted because of poor quarterback play or an injury to a starter. Every proven player is an extra ping pong ball in the tumbler, and Hill's upside makes him an obvious no-brainer insurance policy.
It's even better of an idea if Hill and O'Korn are both amenable to Hill playing a situational role.
|1 year 14 weeks ago||Tape looks okay in my amateur||
Tape looks okay in my amateur opinion. Really good first step. Reminds me more of Hurst than of Henry.
|1 year 14 weeks ago||I'm a psychopath about my||
I'm a psychopath about my hats, and I'd been looking for this exact product forever. On gameday I wear the 5950 but I curve the brim. I admit I did used to wear a flat brim in high school though.
|1 year 14 weeks ago||Heyo. Year? Did this in||
Did this in 2008. Spotted an ad in the Daily(?) while reading it during a shift at work. A small classified ad - seriously the size of a business card - said that football tryouts would be held at a certain time later that day, with a direction to call a number to register. Put down the paper, stared out the window for a moment. Picked the paper back up - I wasn't hallucinating. Picked up the phone before I could think about it again. Told my supervisor I needed to end my shift early and she let me go.
Went home to pick up my cleats. As I walked out, roommate was sitting on the couch studying:
- "Where are you going in cleats?"
- "You won't believe me."
Shut the door and off I went to Schembechler.
Shirts off, weighed us. Dressed us in practice jerseys. Agility/athleticism testing. Broke off into groups. I practiced with the backs. Fred Jackson was our coach during this time. Skill drills - primary evaluative criteria was foot speed. Ball skill drills happened next, where they'd hit you with a bag when you went up to catch a ball. Then brought us into a passing skeleton where I caught a wheel route that caused Calvin McGee to go apoplectic for several reasons.
40 yard dash timing was next. I remember I ran a 5.1. The exchange between me and a grad assistant who I've always wanted to be able to identify:
- "6.1? That's gotta be wrong."
- "I meant 5.1. But that's slow too."
- "I ran 4.7 in high school."
- "Not my fault you got fat."
We ended with sprints. About 3/4ths of the kids didn't quit and I was one of them.
Came home from class the next day to find that day's edition of the Michigan Daily on my bed. My roommate put a sticky note on it with an arrow pointing to an action shot of me. He wrote "THOSE WHO STAY" on the note. I keep that note in a drawer in my office now. When work gets tough I look at it.
|1 year 16 weeks ago||No recruit is ever a "program||
No recruit is ever a "program maker" or "program breaker" except in retrospect. But DPJ is as close as you can get.
|1 year 16 weeks ago||I think he should go,||
I think he should go, frankly.
Don't misunderstand; the defense is better with him than without him. Great player; likely our third or fourth most impactful defensive player. But unless we're planning on going superheavy and replacing the lighter buck spot with a conventional defensive end, his snaps will be cut into by Mone, a healthy Glasgow, and possibly Gary. I don't think his senior season would necessarily help his draft stock, and the downside is the potential for a derailing injury.
|1 year 16 weeks ago||It is my understanding that||
It is my understanding that Henry is at least considering going early. Although I'd clearly rather have Henry than not have Henry, our defensive line depth is so preposterous (even if Gary doesn't commit) that his early departure wouldn't even really be that concerning.
|1 year 16 weeks ago||No, just as I don't demand a||
No, just as I don't demand a refund from my doctor when he can't cure my cold.
I'm not sure what you're trying to prove.
|1 year 16 weeks ago||But it doesn't lead to||
But it doesn't lead to sanctions and penalties unless you self-immolate like we did with the Fab Five.
Do you seriously believe that the commissioner of the NCAA doesn't know why Ole Miss suddenly started getting the best recruiting classes in the country three years ago? Do you have any doubt at all?
|1 year 16 weeks ago||I agree with this. I'm in.||
I agree with this. I'm in. Give me a piece of paper to sign.
But until that point, I don't have any problem rejecting (1) an immoral policy that (2) nobody follows anyway.
I don't much care for the mysogyny inherent in it, but the expression "whores that don't put out on Sunday" comes to mind.
|1 year 16 weeks ago||I did not come down from a||
I did not come down from a mountain with a list of LSA Superstar violations on a tablet. I've used the same moral compass that I use to determine right from wrong in everyday life to evaluate right from wrong in sports.
If you're the one asserting that straight cash payments are unethical, show your work. The die is not yet cast with finality for me. Why is paying an athlete cash "dirty?"
|1 year 16 weeks ago||I want my degree to represent||
I want my degree to represent something worthy of pride too.
You listed the following activities as examples of things that would tarnish your degree:
Honest question - if I take away "they're all against the rules," can you identify any similarity between these three activities?
|1 year 17 weeks ago||I hate when "clean" and||
I hate when "clean" and "dirty" are used interchangibly with "follows the rules" and "doesn't follow the rules."
Okay - I'll break the seal and say it. I do not care if any of our players are taking cash payments to play sports at Michigan. At all. I consider the prohibition on player payment to be unethical, so I don't equate joining the ranks of teams that violate that prohibition to be unethical. So I don't call that dirty, and I don't mind seeing a day when it happens here whether or not the NCAA says we can.
Let's contrast that with what I would call "dirty." The Pitino stuff with strippers was dirty. The Miami football stories about paying for abortions and hooking players up with drug connects is dirty. Paying mom to sell her kid's signature is dirty. I would be ashamed if I heard Michigan was going in on this.
But if I locked eyes with Jabrill Peppers as he took a thousand dollar handshake from a Traverse City entrepreneur, I'd say "get it, brother. You earned it." And I'd do the same if it was, say, Connor Cook in a Jeep Wrangler or Joey Bosa with Google stock.
Just one man's opinion. But I've come to this conclusion after years of soul searching.
|1 year 17 weeks ago||Love the post content, don't||
Love the post content, don't love the Scott commentary. Call it what you will, but Great Authority has declared that the slow play is grade related.
You may have a legitimate beef with the tactic with respect to Enis. But for Scott I think you're just off base.
|1 year 17 weeks ago||Upon thinking about this||
Upon thinking about this more, you're right. Upvoted.
|1 year 17 weeks ago||I'm not sure I agree with||
I'm not sure I agree with your assessment of Pipkins. I thought early returns were decent, and I agree with the poster you're responding to that he never had the opportunity to display continuous improvement due to injury.
I also think that if Pipkins contributes at a starting quality level at Texas Tech next year that his "processing" may prove one of Harbaugh's rare mistakes. We really could have used even another C+ level DT this year on the depth chart.
|1 year 17 weeks ago||Holy shit this story owns||
Holy shit this story owns
|1 year 17 weeks ago||I've acknowledged this point||
I've acknowledged this point multiple times; including so far as to say that I'd be excited even if harbaugh chose to hire Greg Robinson again.
Most commenters on this blog loved Alum96's criteria for a good DC all year... until those criteria suggested that the guy we hired had a mixed record. Not even a bad record! But a mixed one.
|1 year 17 weeks ago||That wasn't Alum96.||
That wasn't Alum96.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||I definitely do. I had grave||
I definitely do. I had grave concerns about Borges, and I didn't have faith in Hoke. I have mild concerns about Brown, and I have infinite faith in Harbaugh.
Both times, the board told me I was a degenerate doom-sayer nearly to a man. Othertimes I've been optimistic and the board has been pessimistic and I've been wrong.
I'm calling it like I see it. I think this was the best hire under the circumstances, and I also think it was okay.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||Brother, we don't have any||
Brother, we don't have any input here. Of course I wouldn't speak in a room where Harbaugh was making a decision. He's a top five active college football coach. He could have rehired Robinson and I would have thought there was probably a sound basis for the move.
But why even have a board if "knows better than Jim" is an eligibility requirement to weigh in on a coaching hire? Why have recruiting threads? Why do UFRs?
|1 year 18 weeks ago||Okay.I mean, we'll know in a||
Okay. I'm with Alum96, but since we both want the same thing I'll defer.
I mean, we'll know in a few years who was right. I hope it's you!
But I've been disappointingly correct before when using stats and ignoring reporting to evaluate a hire.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||Alum96 rejects yardage-based||
Alum96 rejects yardage-based stats and has consistently done so. He's looking t a defense that was ranked in the mid-sixties in FEI for that year - that's slightly below average.
If you'd like to advocate for the superiority of your metric, that's a discussion we can have. I'm in his side on that one, but reasonable minds can disagree.
But this line of discrediting him is weak sauce because you're not confronting his premises when rejecting his conclusion.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||Agree with this 100%. At the||
Agree with this 100%. At the end of the day, Harbaugh has built up such a strong track record that I believe this will work out well even if I can't see it yet.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||He's likely talking about a||
He's likely talking about a QB that has played like utter garbage for two years, with an average freshman season being the highpoint in his career. He's also talking about the guy that you personally watched being eaten alive by Michigan this year, presumably.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||You're not being fair to some||
You're not being fair to some of the criticisms people have provided. I have no problem hiring a guy from BC, Utah State, Colorado School of MInes or Grand Valley. I do not believe we're above anybody.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||This could be. But you're||
This could be. But you're replacing an A+ level recruiter in Durkin. And we don't yet know whether the hire of Brown will mean that Partridge will be moving on. If that's so, a guy who isn't an elite recruiter will necessarily be a downgrade.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||Yes. I make that explicitly||
Yes. I make that explicitly clear.
I am not a coach. I am not a reporter. I am not anything more than a fan that likes to research these things best I'm able.
But I do not think that makes me unable to hold an intelligent opinion. And I do think that this canard of an argument is inappropriate on a sports blog.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||You're not accurately||
You're not accurately representing the record. Aranda consistently built good-to-great defenses. Brown's defenses were sometimes bad, sometimes decent, sometimes good, and superb once.
And you're correct that nobody possesses a "perfect" resume, but that's a straw man. I want the best candidate; I don't demand perfection. And other candidates had better records than Brown. Those candidates told us "no."
|1 year 18 weeks ago||One final comment if I may||
One final comment if I may reply to myself -
I do also really like the principles of Brown's defense. Doing weird, reactive blitz things in an attempt to put the offense back on its heels is the way that great teams beat the spread. So although I wasn't a passenger on the internet ragetrain that disqualified Aranda for giving up 59 to OSU, I do like the fact that this is the kind of guy that runs a Steve Sharik approved defensive scheme.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||I won't lie; from my vantage||
I won't lie; from my vantage point, this seems underwhelming.
I've been basically scouring the internet like a crazy person ever since Durkin left to try and get a bead on who the next DC would be. In the process, I worked in parellel to guys like Alum96 to build a list of potential candidates based on resume alone. Without actually knowing any of these people you're working with an incomplete picture, but looking at history and stats can help you identify massive duds like Greg Robinson before they happen.
I don't like Brown's age. I don't like the fact that Brown's recruiting acumen has never really been mentioned as a strength. I don't like Brown's track record absent the last year. And I don't really like the fact that there doesn't appear to be any upward trajectory to his coaching jobs.
I DO like the fact that his defensive coverage schemes are so multiple. And although I don't give many brownie points for having one spectacular year, he did have one spectacular year with a bunch of players that wouldn't crack our two deep playing opposition roughly as talented as ours. I also was impressed by his track record at UConn - two consistent years without superstar players in a then-decent Big East is nothing to sneeze at. His improvement at Maryland was also decent.
I strongly suspect, having read numerous "end of the internet" DC searchbits, that this may have been a "Plan C" move. I think it's likely that Harbaugh made a run at Anderson first, was either misinformed or misled about Anderson's willingness to accept the job if he wasn't hired by BYU, and recently was forced to backpedal. I also think Harbaugh may have seriously considered Pruitt as a backup plan, and that Pruitt may have considered Michigan the same way if he'd been unable to iron things out in Tuscaloosa. Finally, I really do believe that Leavitt was an option but that somebody nixed that idea because of... his event. This is all conjecture based on my interpretation of (likely hokum but sometimes useful) internet rumormongering.
Overall, I give this hire a C+. I would have preferred Pruitt, Aranda, Anderson, and probably Leavitt from the initial names that were linked to interest, but some of those guys turned us down and others may not have jibed with Harbaugh or been feasible candidates. I do much prefer this hire to other rumored candidates like Pees or Butch Davis, however, so I do give credit for avoiding disaster.
In the end, however, Harbaugh's track record deserves more deference than any Michigan coach probably ever, Bo included. Even though my eyes can't really see it, I'm assuming that this will work out until I'm forced to conclude to the contrary given actual evidence on the field.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||I respond to this hire more||
I respond to this hire more in detail below, but this is a great point. Upvote.
I wasn't scared off by Drevno last year, but I will admit that Fisch's resume and results record gave me the willies. And although most of Harbaugh's hires were predictably awesome (Jackson, Durkin, Zordich, Partridge as RC) I really wasn't disappointed by any coach's performance.
I'll defer to the master.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||MODS. CLOSE THIS FUCKING||
MODS. CLOSE THIS FUCKING THREAD.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||My nightmare is that it's||
My nightmare is that it's Pees. Do. Not. Want.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||This makes absolutely no||
This makes absolutely no sense for Pagano.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||UPDATED the board by adding||
UPDATED the board by adding HAWKINS. Changed status of MITCHELL to "confirmed."
I'm hearing a little bit about Johnson potentially being an EE. Can anyone confirm?
|1 year 18 weeks ago||Source on Hawkins? Hadn't||
Source on Hawkins? Hadn't heard that one.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||Right, but I'm not sure that||
Right, but I'm not sure that EE info is accurate. It doesn't seem to jibe with what we know.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||We need to take a minute and||
We need to take a minute and appreciate this. The post-season recruiting battles rarely went our way in previous years. Meanwhile our staff called their shot and beat Florida fucking State for a kid.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||I've read all about Gary's||
I've read all about Gary's skillset, and I completely understand the positional responsibilities of our defense. I also don't think that we're likely to run the same sets as Durkin ran. But I'm not sure Gary couldn't play buck and be horrifyingly good at it.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||I've long been of the opinion||
I've long been of the opinion that Mitchell is every bit of the prospect that Corley is. They're not similar players in terms of style or attributes, but they're equally good prospects for very different reasons.
...which is one of the reasons I also want Corley at Michigan so badly.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||Not criticizing you because||
Not criticizing you because you're an MSU fan - welcome. Dantonio has my begrudging but unequivocal respect.
But most of these guys don't run 2-gap 3-4s. They run 1-gap 3-4s. Think New York Jets. And you're right that a 280 pound NT isn't ideal in these schemes, but it can still work very well with one so long as the nose is ultimately able to win one on one matchups and isn't utterly caved in by doubles.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||Potential hire grades, as||
Potential hire grades, as based on (1) defensive S&P+/FEI performance, (2) alleged recruiting acumen, (3) recruiting grounds, and (4) age/ambition/personality:
Currently DC at Wisconsin, formerly of Utah State. Elite, top-notch, consistent defensive performance at two different schools, neither of which had top tier talent. Runs a 1-gap 3-4, so I don't think there's much transition cost. Recruiting ties to the mountain states and the Midwest. Young. Weakest recruiter of the candidates. A-; great hire that, in my opinion, is an even better scheme and teacher than Durkin, but isn't also a killer recruiter like Durkin. Would feel very good with this hire.
Current Stanford DC. One elite defensive year and one weak defensive year at Stanford - which was the fluke? Runs a 3-4 that switches between 2-gap and 1-gap looks. Coverage preference appears to be "downy-soft" to prevent big plays. Young. Recruiting ties to the mountain states and CA. Exceptional recruiter who has experience working with Harbaugh. Wants a HC spot badly. B; good hire that wouldn't be much of a downgrade from Durkin. Every bit the recruiter that Durkin was, but that track record really, really worries me. Stanford's defense was brutal to watch this year.
Current DC at Colorad. Literally built a South Florida program from nothing, where his defense was the key to success. Runs attacking, savage defense that does bizarre things with blitzing. Shut down version 1.0 of the spread back in the late aughts. Defensive performance at Colorado was... not good, but improved from "utterly abysmal." Great recruiter who used to be a king in the Florida peninsula. But his star was big time tarnished due to the allegation that he hit a player. Defensive coach with Harbaugh in SF where he turned the 49er linebackers into a group of maniacs. Old and probably unhireable as a HC. B; reminds me of a Bill Belichick reclamation project but as a coach. Probably a "buy low" situation. Used to be an elite recruiter before his incident - can he get it back? Used to be an elite scheme guy - has the game passed him buy? Higher risk, higher reward than Anderson.
Current DC with Ravens. Former college DC of Nick Saban at MSU. Was Kent State's head coach for four years after that. Runs 1-gap 3-4 that was usually above average in Baltimore, sometimes good, never elite. One trillion years old. D+; would be very upset about this hire. Would probably prefer to roll the dice with Jackson as opposed to this.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||I'd rather have Aranda than||
I'd rather have Aranda than Anderson. And I also think Aranda would be a great hire that would leave me very confident for the future.
That all being said, I understand that he's not the elite recruiter Durkin, Anderson, Pruitt or Shannon are. Balanced against that tempo free track record though... I'm sold.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||This position is batty and||
This position is batty and makes me pull my hair out. Suppose you start Hill and he's hurt on the first play of the first game. Then you play O'Korn... just like you would have anyway.
Now flip it. You don't take Hill because of this crazy concern about injuries. O'Korn gets injured. Now your potential playoff season is in the hands of Wilton Speight. I'll buy Speight a beer anytime I see him after graduation. But... no.
The only possible harm in taking Hill is the current baseline, absent first team reps in early fall practice for O'Korn. And that's not nothing, but it's an easy call.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||Also, we saw firsthand how||
Also, we saw firsthand how unlikely a grad transfer at LB is because none of our three average-to-above average LBs tried it. And that's despite splitting time 4 ways with Gedeon.
There's a decent chance that if Ross had transferred to, say, Stanford, he would have started.
It happens, but it's rare. See Countess.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||Steel the spine, guys.||
Steel the spine, guys.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||I think this is the sort of||
I think this is the sort of high-risk, high-reward hire that a school with an otherwise rock-solid staff can make.
If I were an OSU fan, I'd be cautiously optimistic.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||This year? Yes. Notre Dame,||
This year? Yes. Notre Dame, Oregon, and USC ran up and down the field on them.
Anderson is not Robinson level doom. But he's a Borges level risk.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||I vote that next game is an||
I vote that next game is an early senior day. Then we celebrate him again on real senior day.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||The stats are opponent||
The stats are opponent adjusted.
His defensive performance this year is a very big concern.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||Crushing. In my opinion, any||
In my opinion, any mentioned name other than Anderson would be a substantial downgrade. And I'm not sure Anderson isn't also.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||This is a dominant rumor,||
This is a dominant rumor, yes.
I will strengthen my overall RUMOR CONCLUSION:
Alabama is in the driver's seat, but I see some reasons why they may not want him. I also see some reasons why Alabama may not be his first choice. So I think it's most likely that he'll end up as Alabama's DC. But if he doesn't for whatever reason, I now think it's very likely that he ends up coaching at Michigan if that's who Harbaugh prefers.
In between Anderson and Pruitt, I think we're likely to avoid the worst possible fate of Pees.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||I like this a hell of a lot||
I like this a hell of a lot more than I like the names of the other rumored grad transfer targets. But Hill is my first choice by a mile.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||Finebaum just tweeted that||
Finebaum just tweeted that Pruitt signed with Auburn. That's probably it boys.
EDIT: IMPOSTOR. I got fooled.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||It's Defensive Coordinator||
It's Defensive Coordinator Searchbit Correspondent LSA Superstar here.
Although I've learned nothing new from my latest trips to the internet rumor mill abyss, this could be spectacular news for Michigan fans who feel Pruitt is the first choice. Some notes:
1.) I haven't seen any official confirmation that Auburn hired Kelly, but I'd started seeing that he was the leading candidate since yesterday. So let's hold off on getting excited.
2.) If Kelly goes to Auburn, that increases our chances at signing Pruitt because Auburn was thought to be one of the three obvious competitors for Pruitt's services. Georgia, one of the other three, also appears to be off the table - the twitters say that his chances of being retained on Kirby's staff are "zero percent." That leaves him with Alabama, and we've discussed that before.
3.) Better yet, this doesn't leave the possibility of an open spot on the carousel. Let's just say that he's not going back to Florida State. Raback that ish.
4.) ...but - and this is all I'll say - there are RUMORS that we wouldn't want Pruitt for the same reason that FSU wouldn't want Pruitt. Please remember, of course, that the internet is a den of lies.
In conclusion, if Kelly ends up being hired by Auburn, I would say that you should keep an eye on Pruitt. From Pruitt's perspective, I think it would be between Michigan and Alabama. And although I can't speak for Harbaugh, the stats demonstrate that he should be our first choice with a bullet.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||The "close observer" is Chad||
The "close observer" is Chad Simmons. Say what you will about Simmons... he's not known for bullshit. If he said it, it was true when he learned it.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||A comment, and a||
A comment, and a thought.
First the comment. Numerous - and I mean numerous - members of the Alabama commentariat are "take it to the bank" certain that Pruitt is going to be the defensive coordinator there next year. They've formed this opinion based on something that supposedly has happened recently. The group that was formerly resigned to Mel Tucker hasn't exactly retracted their previous opinions, but they appear to be remaining silent. This doesn't strike me as good.
Again - this is simply my personal conclusion after reading through scores of internet rumors which may independently be either (a) bullshit or (b) autism screams in the echo chamber. But that's my conclusion.
Next, the thought. This is purely conjecture, but I do wonder whether Pruitt feels that proximity to Saban may be a bigger curse than a gift. Unlike Harbaugh's staffers, there's a heavy dose of skepticism from the media and from many critical commenters that seems to follow guys like Smart and Muschamp. The thinking, as I understand it, is that you can't really leech of Alabama's success by importing an assistant because Saban exclusively controls the crucial elements that make that program great. This theory has been borne out with Muschamp, and it may explain why Smart had to wait so long to be offered a blue chip coaching position despite coordinating scores of elite defenses. Contrast that with Harbaugh's already prolific coaching tree and you may have a reason to prefer Michigan if you're Pruitt.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||Lots of smoke about Pruitt to||
Lots of smoke about Pruitt to Alabama being done. Also a little obviously contradictory rumorage from GA sources saying it's more likely to be Michigan.
Just the messenger.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||Year (Team) - S&P Defense||
Year (Team) - S&P Defense (Rush, Pass) / FEI Defense by Year:
2013 (FSU) - #1 (#4,#4) / #5
2014 (UGa) - #17 (#65,#7) / #35
2015 (UGa) - #11 (#23,#23) / #16
For comparison, this year Michigan was #2 (#28,#11) / #20.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||Let me be very clear - I'm||
Let me be very clear - I'm just aggregating a bunch of rumors. And in the process I may be distorting them. But thank you.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||In the hypothetical situation||
In the hypothetical situation I've just outlined, you sacrifice a stellar position coach for a stellar defensive coordinator, yes. I don't disagree that it would be a gamble. But it's not ridiculous.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||Isn't your second paragraph||
Isn't your second paragraph really, really obviously untrue?
Actual question. Has anybody done an advanced stat study on teams that successfully stop the spread?
|1 year 19 weeks ago||I think the obvious plan||
I think the obvious plan would be (and, remember, we're stacking inference upon inference here) is that Pruitt is DC and CB coach, Jackson remains with S, Mattison retains DL and Partridge stays on to coach LBs.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||Final thought that I didn't||
Final thought that I didn't remember to include above:
Assuming that the information we have is accurate on the whole (and that's a big assumption to make), I think that Pruitt wants the Alabama job, but Saban might prefer to give it to Tucker instead. And I think if Pruitt needs to go somewhere that isn't Alabama that he recognizes Michigan is probably the second best choice.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||As for the comparisons with||
As for the comparisons with Durkin's defense with respect to advanced stats, well, it's virtually impossible to do better than he did this year. So that's not a realistic benchmark. What's a more realistic expectation is to get a guy who performed within the quintile of defensive performance as measured by advanced statistics year after year.
Pruitt fits that bill. Pruitt's defenses consistently perfomed very well in S&P+/FEI, he's an elite recruiter in the most talent-rich area of the country, and - this is key - he was particularly adept at slowing the spread.
I don't analyze "fit" because I can't measure it. It doesn't mean it's not important, it just means that I don't factor it in when reaching my own conclusions. But Pruitt is the best candidate available in my opinion, full stop.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||DC Coordinator hiring is,||
DC Coordinator hiring is, like, the single biggest risk to my monthly billable hours currently. And, after carefully considering every conceivable factor, Pruitt is my first choice with a big ol' bullet. So, naturally, I've tracked this rumor backwards and forwards all over the internet, going from Twitter to the deepest corners and back again.
In short, I think there's a possibility that this has legs. The rumor about the meeting itself appears to come not from Michigan slappies, but from Alabama message board "insider-y" types. It appeared, if I'm not mistaken, on 247's Alabama board at first, and was "corroborated" by a poster with a long tracker record on CFB reddit. None of those individual rumor vectors are independently eyebrow raising, but the concert of them is good. And although I'll always love Sam, I currently trust Steve Lorenz more than anybody in the business.
But more importantly, it seems to harmonize with some background rumors about Pruitt's destination. There's lots of smoke surrounding him because he's such an elite talent and a hot name in a topsy-turvy SEC coaching situation. But, to amalgamate and summarize:
|1 year 19 weeks ago||You're completely correct.||
You're completely correct. My apologies. I made a FO advanced stat chart from his time with the Ravens a while back and figured that the lack of college data meant an absence of experience.
An oversight on my part. Edited.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||Sam Webb had a gut feeling||
Sam Webb had a gut feeling about Hill a couple days ago. I really, really doubt Hill is going to MSU.
This is either good news or nothing at all.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||From this five, my order of||
From this five, my order of preference is as follows:
PROS: Actual sitting DC from a clean, prestigious program. Crack recruiter who has ties to the west coast. Paid less than we'll probably be willing to offer. Ties to Harbaugh. Young enough.
CONS: Only two years of experience as a DC, and Stanford's defense was, uh, kinda bad this year. Possibility that Stanford's excellent 2014 defense was attributable to Derek Mason (now Vandy's HC). Public favorite for the BYU job, where he's possibly the biggest "name" guy eligible due to being LDS.
PROS: Recruiting prowess is legendary. Household name in Florida high schools. Seems like defenses he coordinated are decently reliable and alternate between being good and being elite. Not old, and already had grab at the brass ring as sitting Miami head man.
CONS: As a head coach, some of his defenses were pretty bad even at Miami. Was at Miami when Real Dirty Stuff was happening (not just paying players/PEDs bad). Not exactly a scheme mastermind. Not young.
---DURKIN LINE (IMO anything below this point would be a downgrade from what we had)---
PROS: Great recruiter from South FL. Was the head coach during a time when South Florida was really, really good nationally and was led by explosive defense. Teams he led shut down Rich Rod's spread a couple of times when that was the cutting edge of college football offense. Ties to Harbaugh.
CONS: Hit a kid maybe. Some people think South FL was basically a sham school with respect to his athletes when he was there. Old. Coordinated a really bad Colorado defense this past year.
---JACKSON LINE (IMO, I'd rather take a chance and just promote Jackson below this point)---
PROS: Was DC for the Baltimore Ravens under John Harbaugh, which carries some cachet because most people associate the Ravens with crushing D even when they're not very good. On occasion, his defenses were top-third NFL defenses which counts for something.
CONS: One billion years old. Never been a college coach. Sometimes his defenses in the pros were bad.
PROS: Personally coached some of the biggest names in the history of football.
CONS: That one time when North Carolina was a degree mill.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||Wanted to look at how Shannon||
Wanted to look at how Shannon performed in terms of tempo-free. Results are mixed.
S&P+ data only goes back to 2005. FEI goes back only to 2007.
YEAR (POSITION) - S&P Rank / FEI Rank
2005 (DC) - 6 / XX
2006 (DC) - 24 / XX
2007 (HC) - 56 / 26
2008 (HC) - 73 / 62
2009 (HC) - 37 / 20
2010 (HC) - 18 / 14
2015 (DC) - 5 / 6
Ultimate conclusions in my recommendation post below.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||"brb beef" has me lol-ing||
"brb beef" has me lol-ing
|1 year 20 weeks ago||It's this: "Michigan people"||
"Michigan people" have always been told they were the best. "Michigan State people" have always been told they were second best.
So when Michigan beats Michigan State, Michigan people feel relieved. "Thank God I didn't lose to THEM." Michigan State people feel embittered and resigned. "Oh those arrogant Michigan fans - they win every time!"
When Michigan State beats Michigan, Michigan people feel ashamed. "I can't believe we lost to THEM!" Michigan State people feel vindicated. "WHO'S LITTLE BROTHER NOW!!!"
So, to a Michigan fan, a game against Michigan State risks shame and offers only relief. To a Michigan State fan, a game against Michigan offers pride and risks only an opportunity to stew over a revision to an unfair "natural order."
Of course, it's all about expectations.
|1 year 20 weeks ago||Boy are you going to be||
Boy are you going to be disappointed next year, then.