that is nice bonus change
|22 weeks 1 day ago||Strange. It cut out after the||
Strange. It cut out after the first half for me. I assume everything went exactly like the first half and Michigan won by 25-30 points. Thanks for uploading it.
|22 weeks 4 days ago||The main accrediting board||
The main accrediting board for music schools was founded in 1924 which is in the same time span as accreditation was becoming widespread.
There are two options for Michigan to offer a degree in football in the current landscape:
Yes, the football schools could band together and form an accreditation board for Sports Performance. But it would have to get approved by the Department of Education so it's not like it would necessarily be automatic.
|22 weeks 4 days ago||Accreditation||
Because there is no accrediting board for sports performance degrees.
|22 weeks 4 days ago||Tuition will NOT be taxable||
Combat pay is not the only exemption to income tax. It is a rare exemption that makes a cash bonus (not a reimbursement) paid to an employee non-taxable though. Anything of value that you receive is income. If someboy gives you $5 for your birthday, it is $5 of income. It is not taxable income because it is under the limit for gifts. If you trade somebody your $50 video game for an $80 blu-ray player you just made $30 of income. That is taxable (although you won't report it and there is virtually no way to catch you).
A large part (perhaps the majority) of the IRS tax code is deciding what different forms of income count as and whether they are taxable or not (and what form of taxation they will fall under). Here is a handy chart that gives a small slice of the taxable vs non-taxable discussion:
The IRS also publishes a "short" 36 page document that gives an overview for many (but far from all) scenarios of income. In fact, in this Publication 525 (http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p525.pdf) it explicitly says the tuition payment will not be taxable to an employee
This argument will only apply to undergraduate student-athletes but I think BiSB's logic is correct that the tuition payments would not be taxable for 5th year graduate students either. But even if you don't believe him, there are numerous ways to avoid taxation. For example, the University could set up a tax-free "529 plan" and contribute the tuition and room & board amount to that account. The athlete would then "pay" tuition from that account that Uncle Michigan (I mean University of Michigan) generously contributed to.
|22 weeks 4 days ago||Tuition will NOT be taxable||
There is no bearing of this ruling on the taxability of tuition scholarships. The IRS has already stated in Publication 525 (http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p525.pdf) that any educational institution may provide tax-free tuition reductions to any EMPLOYEE:
I will note that this does require graduate students to be involved in teaching or research activities. BiSB's analysis I think would still prove that the tuition is not taxable.
BUT even if you don't believe him, there are numerous ways that this could be avoided. For example, the university could contribute (tax-free) the amount of tuition and room & board to a "529 plan" for every student-athlete. Then the athlete would "pay" his tuition out of this plan that Uncle Michigan so generously contributed to.
|38 weeks 6 days ago||Interesting links about||
Interesting links about Haikus. Apparently November counts as early winter but I feel like any month of the regular season is by definition fall. So here's a late autumn linked to early winter haiku run.
The morning cold
Warmed briefly by the Devins --
This day burns bright?
Michigan's hopes --
Like flowers out of season,
Fall to the ground.
|46 weeks 3 hours ago||Timely question||
Good question. It's actually coming this week! There will be the half-season update. And then a couple more in the 2nd half of the season and the end of season update.
Although I wish the first update hadn't come the week that Michigan dropped out :(
|51 weeks 1 day ago||Unfortunately NDNation has||
Unfortunately NDNation has made a separate game board that is only visible to registered members. That was always an interesting read after a Notre Dame loss. Although I felt like I needed a shower after visiting the site.
|51 weeks 3 days ago||Bespoke||
No. This is Michigan. Our alternate uniforms are the equivalent of Brooks Brothers after a lifetime of wearing bespoke suits from Saville Row.
|51 weeks 6 days ago||I agree with your prediction||
I agree with your prediction that with a loss next week they will be ranked in the 20s. I don't think the voters will put a 1-3 team in the polls. They'll be near the bottom of receiving votes.
I also don't really think they should be ranked a 1-3. Good teams need to win some of those games. Losing all 3 might be a sign they aren't Top 25 material.
Now, after beating Vandy, Tenn and Mizzou with a 4-3 record and those specific losses, they'll definitely be ranked again.
I'm on the Georgia side with you this week, so hopefully this is all just a thought exercise.
|51 weeks 6 days ago||This is why early polls are||
This is why early polls are fun. There's a lot of potential movement and more things to discuss. The last few weeks, the positions are somewhat locked in place and can't change very far. Boring!
If the voters could be trusted to ignore their previous ballots then the early season polls have no downside. The problem is that too many voters take their previous poll and make minor adjustments. I would rather fix this problem than eliminate early polls (although it is the much harder solution).
|51 weeks 6 days ago||What if Georgia loses?||
If Georgia loses a close game to South Carolina (say 28-27) this weekend they will be 0-2 but they will have only lost to the #4 and #6 team in the country by a total of (in my example) 4 points.
Will they still be in the Top 25?
SHOULD they still be in the Top 25?
Right now, I think 11th is a good spot for Georgia. Will the voters be able to have an 0-2 team in the Top 25 though? Questionable.
In week 3, they'll crush North Texas. In week 4 they could lose to LSU the #9 team. Can a 1-3 team be in the Top 25?
|1 year 2 days ago||Why does it say "Waiting for||
Why does it say "Waiting for market to open at 8 am ET"? Are trades only valid on Saturdays?
Edit: It works now. It must have just been a glitch or something.
|1 year 3 days ago||43 - 10 Michigan wins||
43 - 10 Michigan wins
|1 year 3 days ago||Interesting. Is Washington a||
Interesting. Is Washington a sentimental pick, or what makes you think they are going to finally emerge from their near-decade of failure?
|1 year 3 days ago||Fixed!||
Thanks for pointing that out. I fixed it now
|1 year 5 days ago||I emailed you Sunday||
I emailed you Sunday night/yesterday morning. Did you get my email?
|1 year 19 weeks ago||I found this helpful||
I found this helpful character chart via the AVClub
|1 year 20 weeks ago||Alright, I'll go there||
Alright, I'll go there tonight.
|1 year 20 weeks ago||I'm headed there soon!||
I'm headed there soon! Driving in from a little up north, where should I look to park?
|1 year 30 weeks ago||It might be better if all the||
It might be better if all the graphs had the same scale on the y-axis. That would make comparisons between each week easier to see at a quick glance.
Edit: Should have said that this is already great work as it is. You have given a very good graphical representation of the voting patterns. I really like it. I just had a small suggestion that might be useful.
|1 year 31 weeks ago||89-61 Michigan||
|1 year 32 weeks ago||A few years ago they had a||
A few years ago they had a couple players arrested for soliciting prostitutes. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9A03E7DB1E3FF93AA1575BC0A9619C8B63
Now they're making up online girlfriends.
How do they get ANY recruits?
|1 year 39 weeks ago||Try out a West Virginia Beer||
Try out a West Virginia Beer Duel while you're there.
(Or see the many many examples that come up from the search http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=west+virginia+beer+duel )
My friend and I have tried it at a couple tailgates.
|1 year 41 weeks ago||31-3 Michigan wins.||
31-3 Michigan wins.
|1 year 43 weeks ago||Michigan wins 38-7. Total||
Michigan wins 38-7. Total yardage 615
|1 year 44 weeks ago||33-20 Michigan 248 rushing||
248 rushing yards
|1 year 45 weeks ago||Yep. Green field turf and||
Yep. Green field turf and some green leaves. Nothing else to see here...
|1 year 45 weeks ago||33-16 Michigan wins with 221||
33-16 Michigan wins with 221 rushing yards
|1 year 50 weeks ago||Not that I disagree that the||
Not that I disagree that the Big Ten looks bad, but what makes the ACC look like a better conference?
|1 year 51 weeks ago||This Auburn-Miss St game||
This Auburn-Miss St game might wind up being lower scoring than their famous 3-2 game a few years ago.
|1 year 51 weeks ago||There will be. That's what||
There will be. That's what the morning games are for :)
But for the moment, please accept my condolences on your Utah pick.
|1 year 51 weeks ago||Sounds like everything has||
Sounds like everything has been answered already. The picks made at the beginning of the year last all season. There was no update after Week 1 because there is not that much movement in the polls (except for one team :( but we won't talk about that). And it gives a little more time to get everything in order.
We did have a couple people volunteer, so we should have the first recap post next week. Thanks for the email justingoblue I'll get in touch with you too. More people to share the work is always a good thing.
|2 years 2 days ago||Entry Form|
|2 years 5 days ago||All I will be thinking this||
All I will be thinking this week is summed up in this haiku:
Oh football, football,
I sure do love the football.
It's finally here.
An homage to the imagery usually portrayed in traditional haikus but with a modern football twist.
Warm and sunny day.
Smell of grass and the sound of
|2 years 19 weeks ago||I've never heard of Numbers||
I've never heard of Numbers and am always willing to investigate new things but unfortunately it's a Mac program.
Have you ever heard of Prezi as an alternative to Powerpoint? I just learned about it and have tried it out a little bit but not very extensively, yet. All of my presentations have a lot of math so I use Latex and Beamer. I don't think I've done any work in Powerpoint in about 5 years.
|2 years 19 weeks ago||I'm with you, Powerpoint is||
I'm with you, Powerpoint is pretty bad. Six Zero hates MS Paint though, so that's his thought.
What I want to know is why Excel is the 2nd worst application ever? There a lot of annoying things about it but it's very very very useful. What should I be using instead?
|2 years 25 weeks ago||I wanted to go a little||
I wanted to go a little higher, but everything was taken. So 230
|2 years 29 weeks ago||You can read the whole story||
You can read the whole story in "Hail to the Victors 2009". Unfortunately with Maple Street Press out of business you probably can't get a copy of it but Brian briefly mentions the story in his preview page.;
|2 years 32 weeks ago||Why do you think Brian is||
Why do you think Brian is always demanding everything to be run from the shotgun?
|2 years 34 weeks ago||I'm not surprised that Joe||
I'm not surprised that Joe Adams (Arkansas player) didn't give an answer but I do like that they asked him who would win in the championship game. It is pretty rare for a team to have played both BCS championship game teams.
|2 years 34 weeks ago||Arkansas wasn't eligible to||
Arkansas wasn't eligible to be in the BCS since there were already 2 SEC teams picked.
They definitely would have torched the Michigan secondary. But their defense is not nearly as good as Virginia Tech's defense. So it would hopefully still have been a competitive game.
|2 years 34 weeks ago||Very good article, thanks for||
Very good article, thanks for pointing it out.
What was most interesting to me was Utah's revenue. I had no idea that Utah was such a big university. They are 6th on that list of total campus revenue with 2.9 billion dollars. Admittedly, I know very little about Utah as a school but with roughly only one exception all of the schools in the top 20 are pretty darn good schools.
|2 years 34 weeks ago||Well, if Wisconsin hadn't||
Well, if Wisconsin hadn't lost against Ohio State in the last seconds of that game they would have been a second team blocked out of the championship game.
How do you know Alabama is one of the two best teams? The only good team they beat was Arkansas, and possibly Penn State if you're being generous.
|2 years 36 weeks ago||At this point I don't think||
At this point I don't think it's worth it to buy it more than every other year.
|2 years 36 weeks ago||Who cares if there are .500||
Who cares if there are .500 teams (or even 6-7 teams) playing in bowl games? After this game there are only 31 college football games left until September 2012!
I say let every team play in a bowl game. Hell, let every team play in 3 bowl games. Extend the season through March. I need my fix of college football longer.
|2 years 37 weeks ago||If only we had a wider view||
If only we had a wider view of that mountain range. I want to know when it will be safe to visit New York in the next few years.
|2 years 37 weeks ago||Here are the current||
Here are the current standings
Here are the standings on a weekly basis going all the way back to week 1.
|2 years 37 weeks ago||Oops. In my defense, I'm||
Oops. In my defense, I'm still drunk from celebrating the first victory over Ohio State in forever.
The date on the page you saw was a typo. Those were the results from 11/27. Then I had uploaded the standings after Championship week but forgot to publish it. Thanks for pointing it out, I fixed it now. There was a lot of shakeup in the standings that last week.
I do have a few posts planned for bowl season. We'll see how many of them actually get posted... (see the first line)
|2 years 38 weeks ago||What are you talking about?||
What are you talking about? Purdue players are going to get this awesome watch:
I'd drape myself in velvet and wear that watch everywhere I go.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||I agree. There are probably||
I agree. There are probably as many examples of batted balls being caught as failed interception attempts being caught by the offense.
I guess the thinking goes that an interception attempt will cause the ball to bounce up and fall to the ground slowly giving the offense some time to react. If you bat the ball down then it goes to the ground quickly and the offense has to be very lucky to be in the right place.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||I gave one real vote and 9||
I gave one real vote and 9 realer votes for Terelle Pryor. Did clearing cookies work for you?
|2 years 38 weeks ago||Wisconsin very well might be||
Wisconsin very well might be in the championship (probably not though) if they had intercepted MSU's hail mary instead of batting it down.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||Yeah, lists start at 0.||
Yeah, lists start at 0.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||Right, he knew that too about||
Right, he knew that too about Miller and Bryant. He was asking if there had been any progress in losing or gaining size.
To which I would answer that most of that progress happens in the offseason.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||To get his ballot that would||
To get his ballot would require Zook to have correctly filled out his forwarding address during the exit interview.
Quite a risky gamble...
|2 years 38 weeks ago||I'm not the expert at betting||
I'm not the expert at betting lines that jamiemac is but I believe the over/under would be set at 0.5
|2 years 38 weeks ago||But the BCS's motto is "every||
But the BCS's motto is "every game counts". That is literally their twitter name: twitter.com/EveryGameCounts So according to the system, the game that LSU already won was one that counted.
The BCS bills itself as a not-playoff that preserves the importance of every regular season game. Therefore, there are few situations in which I would say that LSU doesn't deserve the AP championship. If Alabama beats LSU, they get the Coaches Poll but the AP Poll should go to LSU.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||I feel like Alabama would||
I feel like Alabama would have to win by a ridiculous score of 50-0 before I would put anybody else above LSU as #1.
LSU beat Oregon in Dallas, West Virginia in Morgantown, Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Arkansas and Georgia in Atlanta. They have one of the best resumes of any team I can think of from recent years. They have already beaten 3 of the 9 other BCS teams.
|2 years 38 weeks ago||That would be an awesome||
That would be an awesome matchup. Unfortunately I doubt it will happen.
|2 years 39 weeks ago||It may not have sold out but||
It may not have sold out but it was pretty darn full. I didn't notice any shots of totally empty sections.
|2 years 39 weeks ago||I'm not trying to answer for||
I'm not trying to answer for Brian. He can answer if he wants to (he won't).
If I'm not allowed to discuss this, why did you post it as a public message? You should have just emailed Brian directly.
|2 years 39 weeks ago||Brady Hoke had been a head||
Brady Hoke had been a head coach for 5 years in 2007. When Michigan did hire him, he had 60% more experience. That's a huge difference. I would bet just about anything that if somebody asked Brady Hoke if he was a better coach in 2011 than he was in 2007 that he would say yes.
Maybe he didn't improve very much as an actual coach. Maybe in 2007 he would have turned out just as good as he has. However, an Athletic Director's job is about 80% PR. Having a 12-1 and 9-4 season to point to is a huge improvement in pr. Even if he didn't actually improve as a coach in those three years, the outside perception of him as a coach drastically improved in those 3 years. As an AD that's almost as important as his actual coaching abilities.
|2 years 39 weeks ago||It's like in 12 Monkeys where||
It's like in 12 Monkeys where he shows up in all those old pictures.....
|2 years 39 weeks ago||I don't think there is||
I don't think there is anything at all wrong with that post. It was from 2007!
Brady Hoke in 2007 is a MUCH different coach than Brady Hoke in January 2011. Since that post Hoke went 25-13 (before being hired at Michigan) including a 12-1 and 9-4 season. That is a vast improvement over his 2007 record of 22-36.
Brian was still very deadset against hiring Hoke in 2011 but was not nearly as vicious. The main thrust of Brian's complaints were that he is an average coach (a vast improvement from that 2007 post) who wouldn't be considered for a Michigan coaching job if he hadn't been an assistant at Michigan. Others like Skip Holtz, Kyle Wittingham, Gary Patterson didn't seem to be an option and they had better records.
Now, in hindsight Brian's complaints from this year turned out to be very wrong. That doesn't mean his complaints from 2007 were the worst thing ever written on this blog.
|2 years 39 weeks ago||It's not a grade for what||
It's not a grade for what level of players was on the team when he got there, it's a grade for his recruiting.
Hoke has recruited a top 3 class so far this year. That might drop a little as other teams get full classes but I would be shocked if the recruiting class is out of the top 5 or 6.
I would say that is an A in acquiring players.
|2 years 39 weeks ago||I accidentally upvoted this||
I accidentally upvoted this before I read any of it. But then it was great and totally earned that upvote.
|2 years 40 weeks ago||The knowledge is my||
The knowledge is my leader
32 - 10
|2 years 40 weeks ago||ABC and ESPN are affiliated||
ABC and ESPN are affiliated but their announcing teams are pretty much kept separate. So, since the game is on ABC it is very unlikely that Spielman, Pash and Meyer were scheduled to be the announcers.
|2 years 40 weeks ago||I can get behind good defense||
I can get behind good defense and LSU and Alabama have the best defenses in the country. I would give either one of them a 90% chance of winning the title against any other team based on the strength of their defenses.
But that game was a product of terrible quarterbacks as much as it was a product of good defense. Just because a game is low scoring doesn't mean that it was good defense.
|2 years 40 weeks ago||I also think that TOP is an||
I also think that TOP is an effect of playing well, not a cause. But this game further reinforced my belief that TOP should be viewed primarily as a defensive stat, not an offensive one. Yes, the offense can affect TOP but I feel the defense has a bigger influence.
In this game, the only quarter in which Michigan didn't have double digit TOP was the 3rd quarter. That was also the only quarter in which the defense allowed Nebraska to have multiple drives that lasted more than 3 offensive plays.
If your defense forces a 3 and out on every drive, then it doesn't matter how fast your offense plays, you'll win TOP.
|2 years 40 weeks ago||Exactly. Fear Factor would||
Exactly. Fear Factor would be cool if half of the stunts weren't eating super disgusting crap.
|2 years 40 weeks ago||Well, my problem is that it's||
Well, my problem is that it's not a complete answer.
Let's say that you're down by 15 points with 8 minutes left in the first quarter when you score a touchdown. Do you go for 2 then? No. There are 52 minutes of game time for all sorts of stuff to happen. You don't need that 2 pointer right then.
I would agree that with 5 minutes left it is probably best to go for 2 on the first touchdown.
Let's say that you're down by 15 points with 30 seconds left in the game when you score the first touchdown. Do you go for 2 then? At this point it doesn't matter because you don't have time for 2 more scores. There's an argument to be made for keeping your team's hopes alive by kicking the extra point first.
So, at what point in the game do you need to go for 2 on the first touchdown?
|2 years 40 weeks ago||I find the article very ugly||
I find the article very ugly looking... Does his keyboard have a short circuit that automatically hits enter every time he types a period?
|2 years 41 weeks ago||Alright, you were right about||
Alright, you were right about Illinois. I am now putting all of my savings and maxing out my credit on your other picks.
|2 years 41 weeks ago||I think the field goal was||
I think the field goal was good too. I am shocked that they didn't review it.
Although I don't think that would have made a difference since they've only ever shown the two angles. Where's the camera right underneath the goalposts?
|2 years 41 weeks ago||I like most of those picks||
I like most of those picks except for the first two.
I don't have a good feeling on Tennesse or Vanderbilt. I feel like Tennessee should be better than Vanderbilt but Vandy has played a lot of good teams very close. That one I just wouldn't play, not that I necessarily think you're wrong.
But I don't know how you can bet on Illinois even with the 14.5 points. What have they done recently to be worthy of your trust? I think Wisconsin is going to win by 20+ points.
|2 years 41 weeks ago||Interesting. I'm surprised||
Interesting. I'm surprised the game of the week isn't USC-Oregon. USC should probably be higher ranked than 18th, facing the #4 team in the country. I guess there's a good chance that it's a total blowout, whereas the Michigan game should be relatively close.
Although, as I pointed out in Pick Six, the ESPN 3D game this week is 5-5 Vanderbilt at 4-6 Tennessee. The fumbles and punts will look like they're coming straight into your living room.
|2 years 41 weeks ago||Oh yeah. You're right, 1998||
Oh yeah. You're right, 1998 or 1999 was the start of the BCS. So I guess that doesn't count.
Anyway, I think the point is that it's less likely that Big Ten teams will go to other big bowl games then. Each bowl will probably lock in a second tie-in like Vasav says above (although hopefully not a 4th SEC-Big10 matchup).
There were a lot of not good things about the BCS, and some of the matchups weren't great. But there were a lot of really great bowl games that we got to see in the last 12 years that would never have happened without the BCS. On the whole I would say that the BCS was a major positive.
|2 years 41 weeks ago||Well I hope you were born in||
Well I hope you were born in 1999 when they played in the Orange Bowl. Otherwise, GET BACK TO BED!
But I was also too young to think about how bowl selections were made. I was too busy laughing about the idea of a Toilet Bowl. Ha! I killed on the playground.
|2 years 41 weeks ago||That's true but I'm not||
That's true but I'm not exactly sure how that happened. The Big Ten had a contract to send their 2nd place team to the Citrus Bowl. How did the Orange/Sugar/Fiesta get to take Michigan instead of the Citrus Bowl?
Now the only time a bowl gets to pick from a conference it doesn't have a conference with, it is choosing from the terrible 7-5 or 6-6 schools that are hanging around at the bottom of the bowl order.
|2 years 41 weeks ago||That's true. But Saturday||
That's true. But Saturday and Sunday are just as long of work days for college coaches as well. So working 7am - 9 pm every day of the week makes for 98 hours.
I know that in banking you work weekends as well but it's not every weekend and it's often shorter days on the weekend.
|2 years 41 weeks ago||Well, if your happy hour is||
Well, if your happy hour is from 9-10 pm then that probably is an 80-100 hour a week job.
|2 years 41 weeks ago||Interesting that you bring up||
Interesting that you bring up that analogy since Borges also runs power football without a strong play action threat this year.
|2 years 41 weeks ago||I have a formatting||
I have a formatting suggestion. How about putting the average ranking at the top of each school's chart? Sometimes I am near the bottom of the page and can't really figure out why one school is ranked ahead of the other. Having their averages easily visible would help.
E.g. Michigan would look like:
|2 years 41 weeks ago||Remember, you can always use||
Remember, you can always use Ctrl+F to find your name. It might help this week!
But Arizona State losing to WSU pretty much killed any chance of me getting points from the unranked spot.
|2 years 42 weeks ago||But that's my point. Why are||
But that's my point. Why are they legitimately part of the educational record? How is taking money from outside boosters part of a student's educational record? It has nothing to do with education. FERPA should definitely keep educational matters private but this isn't educational.
Just because someone is a student doesn't mean that everything he does is education-related.
|2 years 42 weeks ago||I can see the need for FERPA||
I can see the need for FERPA in general but I do feel like athletic departments cover a lot of crap up under the lame excuse of FERPA. It's one thing for a paper to release the grades and GPA of a bunch of student-athletes but it's completely different when asking a school about NCAA violations committed by someone. Or asking Alabama about the medical status of some of the players that Saban cut.
|2 years 42 weeks ago||I don't really know if this||
I don't really know if this is worth much of an argument. You don't have to convince me that pro-style offenses are good. They certainly can be. I'm not going to convince you that a spread-n-shred offense would work at an elite level. I'll focus on three points that I thought were most interesting.
The first point is that you are always going to play a team that is just as big, fast and strong as you are. Michigan will see that every year in OSU and one or two of Wisconsin, Nebraska and Penn State (not to mention the possibility of Michigan State and/or Iowa depending on the year). Alabama saw that in LSU last weekend and their offense didn't score anywhere near their average of 40 points. Congratulations to them on being in it in the fourth quarter. It's still a loss in which their offense was shut down.
Secondly, yes I think last year's offense was great. It wasn't the best in the country and it had room to improve this year, but I would say it was in the top 15. That Mississippi State game was terrible for sure, no excuses, but that same defense also held Auburn to a season-low of only 17 points.
Finally, I consider TOP a defensive stat, if it has any meaning. The offense definitely can affect TOP but I primarily view it in terms of whether the defense is getting themselves off the field quickly. The tempo of the offense definitely affects the defense but the primary reason why I think a slower tempo is making our defense better this year is that the other team has fewer chances to score. Last year the opponents averaged 12 possessions per game while this year they're only averaging 8 possessions per game. That right there has probably improved the defensive rankings by about 20-30 spots.
Before I get accused of maligning Mattison or the amazing job he's doing let me say that I think he's great. This years defense is holding opponents to 1.96 points per possession compared to last year's 2.89 points per possesion. That is a big improvement made to look even bigger on the scoreboard because they're facing 4 fewer possessions a game.
|2 years 42 weeks ago||Using your idea, the fact||
Using your idea, the fact that Alabama didn't turn the ball over more than LSU and matched them in time of possession is meaningless when they LOST . Their biggest, fastest, toughest guys in the WHOLE COUNTRY (their past 4 recruiting classes have been ranked 1,1,5,1) weren't able to score a single touchdown.
Time of possession is a defensive stat. If you force a 3 and out everytime the other team has the ball you will win TOP no matter what style your offense is.
Turnovers are a valid comparison though. Alabama still turned the ball over twice, which admittedly is less than 4. Maybe as defenses get better at defending the zone read and spread offenses in general they have gotten better at forcing turnovers. When Rodriguez was still at Michigan the hope was that the turnover problem was due to playing freshmen quarterbacks since WVU was always positive in TO margin while he was the coach there. That sounded like a reasonable explanation but it is possible that it is a newer problem with spread offenses as defenses adapt. I don't have any real knowledge either way on that question.
Are you honestly telling me that a combined team of Oregon's offense and Alabama's defense would have done worse against LSU than Alabama did? I think that the Bama Ducks would have won by a comfortable margin (although probably not a blowout).
I'm a believer that a great defense makes for a good team on it's own. A great offense needs at least an average defense to be a great team (compare Michigan and Auburn last year). Maybe Hoke is right that you can't be a great defense when you are playing a spread offense. I don't really believe it but Rodriguez unfortunately didn't give us any counterexamples.
Is Michigan allowed to use play-action passes? Isn't that "fooling people"? I think a team should build a great defense and use any advantage they can get on offense. If that means fooling people, why wouldn't you want to fool people?
|2 years 42 weeks ago||Awesome comments. That makes||
Awesome comments. That makes a lot of sense. I knew about the communication but I had never thought about it in regards to who would pull.
So I guess this play is kind of set up to be difficult because the center is so much better at pulling than the guard. In an ideal world Molk would block the NT and Omameh would pull? But due to the weakness of Omameh at pulling it's a choice between a harder block on the NT or a bad pull. Since the pull goes playside it's more important.
One more question, going into the season I would have thought Omameh would be relatively good at pulling. He was good at getting to and blocking in the second level. Do you have any thoughts on why he has struggled so much?
|2 years 42 weeks ago||I'm sure I could look it up||
Edit: OT question that I stopped being lazy and looked up on Wikipedia.
I made bank in school by tutoring lots of students from that high school. Rich parents north of Chicago would pay $60-$100 an hour for somebody to basically watch their kid do their homework.
|2 years 42 weeks ago||I don't know enough about OL||
I don't know enough about OL specifics but is that common for the OL to audible who pulls on their own? I understand that in zone or man the OL has to decide the blocking assignments but it seems like who is going to pull would be pretty much fixed.
|2 years 42 weeks ago||I've got no problem with||
I've got no problem with pro-syle offenses. To expand on what you said, with good talent and good execution a pro-style offense is hard to stop. Michigan should win 9+ games a year now that they have competent defensive coaches.
However, saying that spread offenses have been figured out is silly. In my opinion LSU is the best defense this year (Alabama is 2nd -- slightly better numbers but worse schedule). The only teams to score more than 11 points or gain more than 300 yards on LSU were Oregon (zone-read based spread and shred) and WVU (Holgorsen's run-heavy airraid spread).
Alabama has great offensive linemen and a great running back but their pro-style attack only scored 6 points on 295 yards compared to 27 points on 335 yards for Oregon and 21 points on 533 yards for West Virginia. In LSU's other 6 games they gave up an average of only 7 points and 190 yards.
Does this mean the pro-style offense has been figured out? No. It means that LSU has a great Defense which can stop any offense. Those points are season lows for both WVU and Oregon. The yardage is probably a season low for Oregon.
The beauty of college football is that any offensive system can work. It doesn't matter if it's pro-style, the spread and shred, the airraid, the flexbone or June Jone's run 'n shoot modifications. The key is that all these offenses are built together so there are answers to what defenses do to stop you.
|2 years 42 weeks ago||If the backside end stayed||
If the backside end stayed honest then Denard should not have kept the ball if it was in fact a Zone Read. If the backside end doesn't crash down then the tailback should get past the LOS untouched and everyone in front should be blocked into the secondary.
I don't recall the play you're talking about from memory but it was either a bad read by Denard or not actually a read, just a fake handoff that Denard was supposed to keep and run outside.
Except for in the case of talent mismatches, no offense is very effective against a very disciplined defense. If the talent and execution is even, the offense should be able to get small yards on every play. But they have to play mistake-free or they'll kill their own drive. If the defense gets aggressive they can stop the offense but there is always a vulnerability that the offense could find a way to exploit.
The zone-read hands it off to the tailback for 5 yards until the defensive end finally crashes down on the tailback and the qb is on the edge running free. Pro-style offenses can use the run to get the safeties in the box and then throw it over top. Or they can use the passing game to clear out the middle of the field and then hand it off for 10-20 yards.
I think that's what people are frustrated with. What is Michigan's base offense? What are their constraints to keep the defense from cheating to stop their base offense?
|2 years 42 weeks ago||There are two ways to embed||
There are two ways to embed photos in diaries depending on how you post the diaries.
Do you use Windows Live Writer? If not, you should. It's free and very nice! Check out Brian's helpful guide at http://mgoblog.com/content/how-post-mgoblog. Windows Live Writer will automatically upload the picture to MGoBlog's server for you.
If you're not using Live Writer (then go to live.windows.com and download it because you should use it) then you have to upload your picture to the internet. Use a website like flickr.com or tumblr.com might work (but twitpic.com does NOT work because it changes the file name constantly). Right now it's still trying to get the picture off your home computer. But thankfully Windows does not usually let random internet servers take files off your computer.
|2 years 42 weeks ago||Even though Charlie Day was||
Even though Charlie Day was hardly in the sketch, the Greek Gods discussing the financial crisis was hilarious. "I turn into animals and bang women all the time"
|2 years 42 weeks ago||Future headlines: "Is 7-5||
Future headlines: "Is 7-5 accepting?"
"Is 7-5 unaccepting?"
"Is 7-5 excepting?"
"Is 7-5 exceptable?"
"Is 7-5 = 2?"
|2 years 42 weeks ago||Sleep is overrated. There's||
Sleep is overrated. There's not enough hours of college football in one year. Savor every drop while you still can.
|2 years 43 weeks ago||Okay. I agree he seems to||
Okay. I agree he seems to call the jet sweep too much and ignores the diamond backfield. I'd love to see that again if he insists on playing Devin. Personally I'd rather have Denard be the qb on 100% of the plays with 90% or more out of the shotgun.
I have a suspicion (maybe this has already been discussed -- I haven't seen it though) that they're trying to keep Devin happy and keep him from transferring. I think that's why they play Devin so much.
Anyway, for whatever reason they keep playing Devin but why is the Fritz Diamond gone?
|2 years 43 weeks ago||Actually, I don't think he||
Actually, I don't think he has used the Fritz formation since Minnesota. He repeatedly calls the Denard Jet Sweep play.
Fritz was what we called the diamond formation with Devin as qb, and Robinson, Smith and Toussaint as backs. Why hasn't he brought that back?
|2 years 43 weeks ago||If these are the playcalls||
If these are the playcalls they're going to make, I can't wait for Morris to get here either. I love Denard and think he could be doing great things this year. At home Hoke/Borges seem much more flexible but on the road they get stubborn and demand way too much play action deep passes from under center. That's not the strengths of Denard, our offensive line, or our wide receivers (except for Hemingway).
I don't have a problem with the offense itself (although it's not my favorite) but I do have a problem with it being run with these players.
|2 years 43 weeks ago||I agree that LSU has played a||
I agree that LSU has played a tougher schedule and been nearly as dominant as Alabama. So why do you think "Alabama should win"? To me that says that LSU should win. Granted, Bama has the home-field advantage but I'm not sure that's enough.
|2 years 43 weeks ago||I'd take LSU. They've played||
I'd take LSU. They've played a tougher schedule and shut down some very good offenses. Alabama has done a great job so far, but against a weaker schedule.
|2 years 43 weeks ago||I love the Toledo Metroparks.||
I love the Toledo Metroparks. They're the best parks I've ever seen. As for best bets I agree with a few above.
Arkansas -5 at home over South Carolina and Oklahoma State -21 at home over Kansas State.
I'm also thinking Baylor -2.5 over Mizzou. Baylor has one of the best offenses and one of the worst defenses. Mizzou has average of both (leaning a little to offensive side). I trust Baylor a little since they're at home.
The safer play is Baylor/Mizzou Over 73 points. The only 1-A game they've played that was under 73 points was at Kansas State and it was a total of 71. They've had more games (3) in the 80s than games (2) in the 70s plus one game that had a total of 98 points.
|2 years 43 weeks ago||With the major "Anything can||
With the major "Anything can happen" disclaimer out of the way.
I definitely think LSU and Alabama will both wind up ranked in the top 3 after the bowls. While LSU has stopped better offenses, Alabama's D is still excellent. I don't think anybody else can beat them.
You're probably right that this game will be more competitive than the BCS championship game.
|2 years 43 weeks ago||The top 1% have 83 points.||
The top 1% have 83 points. The bottom 30% have half that. The bottom 10% have 31 points or less.
brought to you by #OccupyHerbstreit
|2 years 43 weeks ago||First a question: How does||
First a question: How does KenPom determine his preseason rankings? Is it solely based on returning minutes and last year's stats?
Second an observation: KenPom has the only home loss against Ohio State. While it would be annoying to get swept by OSU, that would be a pretty good season. It looks like the closest win is a 55% chance against Wisconsin but we have a few close road losses that could be more easily flipped. 48% chance of victory at Indiana, 49% at Nebraska and a 50% chance of victory against Memphis in Hawaii. Hopefully 2 of those 3 could turn into victories and no more than one "surprise" home loss 20-9 (11-9 or 10-8) record. I'd take it.
|2 years 43 weeks ago||I just read about "Occupy||
I just read about "Occupy Herbstreit" today but it was too off-topic to share. Now, boom it is not completely off-topic to a subject that is on-topic.
|2 years 43 weeks ago||SDSU is 4-3 right now. They||
SDSU is 4-3 right now. They were 4-2 when I posted, but lost last night. So there's probably no chance Gameday will go to that game.
Although I'm sure the hosts would enjoy being in San Diego in mid-to-late November.
My guess is that they'll wind up at Ohio State or a 1-AA game. Haven't they even done a D-2 or D-3 game before? Maybe they'll go to an even lower division.
|2 years 43 weeks ago||Like Geaux_Blue said they||
Like Geaux_Blue said they never (Edit: almost never) return to the same campus. They try to avoid doing the same school twice but they'll do that occassionally as long as it's not on the same campus.
A list of games that they would probably choose before returning to Ann Arbor:
They also occasionally go to a I-AA game. A few options that week are
If Alabama wins next week then they could have an unusual matchup of I-AA #1 Georgia Southern at I-A #1 Alabama
|2 years 43 weeks ago||It's not cumulative. Just||
It's not cumulative. Just like the BCS the mid-season standings are purely for entertainment purposes. All that matters is the final standing.
I'm not sure how cumulative standings would work.
|2 years 44 weeks ago||If only you hadn't picked||
If only you hadn't picked West Virginia you'd be right there in last place. 3 out of the 5 teams in Group E are unranked. You have chosen ... poorly.
|2 years 44 weeks ago||I also don't remember ever||
I also don't remember ever hearing anything about this. I am very curious.
|2 years 44 weeks ago||Here's better video of the||
Here's better video of the backward pass fumblerooski thanks to mocksession.
And I pretty much agree with what a few others have said. The rule has a very weird result in this one case but 99% of the time the ball would go sideways or backwards. By spotting the ball where it went out of bounds you are almost always punishing the offense for their mistake which is good.
There could be rule modifications like, "where the ball goes out of bounds or where the muff occurred whichever is farther back" but that just makes everything more complicated. Does anybody think that football rules need more complications?
|2 years 44 weeks ago||Have you used GIMP before?||
Have you used GIMP before? If so, how would you compare the two?
|2 years 44 weeks ago||Could be a problem? Could?!?||
Could be a problem? Could?!? If we lose both of the next two games it would be terrible for fanbase morale. Hokefully, Hoke could keep the team in good shape but the fans would be freaking out.
Edit: I was thinking that Illinois came next not Iowa, but in my mind they have to win at least 2 of the next 3 to have a decent season. If they can win all 3 then it becomes a good year no matter what else happens.
|2 years 44 weeks ago||They would lose their 6||
They would lose their 6 easiest games (a 1-AA team, 2 mac teams, Indiana, Minnesota and Purdue) and win their 6 hardest games (OSU, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan St and Northwestern). Although maybe I should switch Northwestern and Purdue for rivalry purposes.
The question is, how would a blogpoller rank that team? Usually a team with those victories on its resume would be in the top 10. But those losses.... Sounds like a perfect Ron Zook team.
|2 years 45 weeks ago||I don't know. My team the||
I don't know. My team the JCVD Rocky Rambos is definitely tougher.
|2 years 45 weeks ago||Ahhh, that makes sense. I've||
Ahhh, that makes sense. I've never heard that before, I've always called it a cube.
|2 years 45 weeks ago||That is awesome. I did not||
That is awesome. I did not know about that. Something good did come out of this thread.
|2 years 45 weeks ago||If they fall on the ball then||
If they fall on the ball then they're down right away. To me it looked the player (I forget who it was) was trying to scoop the ball up and run with it. I don't think he was hesitating, he was just trying to pick it up wihout being ruled down. It's impossible to really tell though.
|2 years 46 weeks ago||I am surprised Bama isn't||
I am surprised Bama isn't winning by more already.
Right now I'm also watching the NU game. The Florida-Auburn game is backup.
|2 years 46 weeks ago||Did you ever figure out your||
Did you ever figure out your username? If not, send an email to mgoblog . pick . six [at] gmail and I can look you up based on your email address.
|2 years 46 weeks ago||I added your name to the list||
I added your name to the list of people who I should go back and add in to the standings. It will get done ... some time.
|2 years 46 weeks ago||I don't know if you ever||
dsechler: I don't know if you ever figured out your name but I think it is "Answer Key". Unfortunately it must be the answer key to a different test since you picked Florida State and Florida.
|2 years 46 weeks ago||I'll go with 709 yards.||
I'll go with 709 yards.
|2 years 46 weeks ago||I do go in phases depending||
I do go in phases depending on how busy I am. Plus my username isn't very memorable. Not that that's a bad thing.
|2 years 46 weeks ago||Despite my incredibly long||
Despite my incredibly long manifesto I'm not really disagreeing with you about the quality of the BTN. They're certainly not as good as your standard ABC/ESPN crew. I'm willing to cut announcers a little bit of slack for mistakes. If they say the wrong team is winning one time, then fine. If they keep messing up, that is a much bigger deal.
Another thing to consider is that they don't get as much practice as ESPN announcers. I kind of hate to keep bringing up Those guys have all the fun but it is amazing and I literally just read this part. ESPN first aired college football in 1984 and there were a total of 48 games shown the whole season. In 2011 I would bet substantial amounts of money that ESPN produces (in some capacity) 48 games every week. A lot of those announcers do a weeknight game AND a weekend game. With all that experience they're going to be much better.
I'm certainly not going to subject myself to the audio horrors that it would involve but I bet if you compared the NW game to a 2007 game the announcing would be vastly improved. Hopefully over the next few years the announcing gets right up near the ESPN standard. Their homegrown talent will have experience and if people make the jump to ESPN the (hopefully) deep pockets of the BTN can hire experienced replacements from the other lower tier networks.
|2 years 46 weeks ago||Wow, this got really long.||
Wow, this got really long. TL;DR version: The BTN didn't get the best pick of announcers. Announcing is harder than it seems (lots of time to fill) and they make a smaller percentage of mistakes than you might think.
I think there are a combination of factors that make the announcers at BTN worse than the announcers that we see on ESPN games.
1. ABC, ESPN and ESPN2 games (especially with Big Ten teams) are pretty big games and have announcer pairs that are probably in the top 10 of the business. So they do a very good job and make everything else sound bad. If you listen to ESPNU games it's a little worse and if you watch any of the games relegated to ESPN Gameplan or worse, the announcing is probably on par with the BTN.
2. The BTN is still pretty young. This is the 4th season I think. I'm reading the ESPN book (Those guys have all the fun -- which is FASCINATING) and in the first full decade or more of ESPN they were still making everything up as they went. Obviously sports coverage (and especially college football) has advanced way beyond the level of 80s TV but 4 years is still a pretty young station.
3. The BTN started at the same time that there was an explosion in the number of televised football games. When the BTN started it took 3+ games a week off the ESPN networks. ESPN didn't air fewer games, they actually started airing more. They replaced those 3 Big Ten games with others and started showing 3+ games a week on ESPNU. FX also started airing games. CBS Sports network started airing college football. Two weeks ago there was a live televised game of Case Western Reserve University football vs Allegheny College aired down in Georgia.
Why is this important? It made hiring experienced play-by-play announcers almost impossible. ESPN has virtually unlimited money to keep their talent (and poach new good talent) so the BTN wasn't getting many of those people.
Now, like you said it doesn't seem like it should be too hard to do a good job. However, they have to fill up roughly 2 hours of air time (subtract half time and commercials). You try talking for 2 hours without any script and limited notes and see how many mistakes you make.
Then add in the fact that play-by-play announcers have to say everything instantly as it happens. The color commentators get about 10 seconds to see and process what happened and then 15 seconds to explain it to fans who don't have any knowledge of the technical side of football. All that pressure will cause more mistakes.
Their mistakes are glaringly obvious so we remember them. But they probably only add up to 2 minutes of talking time. So they make a mistake 1.7% of the time. Not as bad as it sounds to an MGoBlog reader who catches every mistake.
|2 years 46 weeks ago||It might be a lot of||
It might be a lot of blockquoting but he has the link. The first two words, "Michigan Monday" are a link.
|2 years 46 weeks ago||Really? Don't be like that.||
Really? Don't be like that. LB is quite clearly saying that the most important thing (in his mind) was the damage done to the athletes. I prefer parentheses in that situation but commas are just as legitimate. You might want to learn how to break down a sentence or at least learn about clauses.
|2 years 46 weeks ago||I think you're looking at||
I think you're looking at last week's rankings. ESPN doesn't have the AP rankings for this week listed yet.
|2 years 47 weeks ago||I thought that sounded||
I thought that sounded surprising. NW usually has pretty good posession receivers but at most one semi-elite guy. You might want to go back and edit the original post.
|2 years 48 weeks ago||Checking in on other games at||
Checking in on other games at halftime.
Northwestern is up 14-10 on Illinois. They're winning but not doing much on offense against Illinois even with Persa back. They have 4 drives that were three-and-out and two touchdown drives of 69 and 36 yards for a total of 116 yards. Illinois is moving it pretty well (205 yards) but has two turnovers.
Penn State and Indiana are playing quite a snoozefest in a 3-3 game. It's too bad we're not playing either of those teams. We need to restart our winning streak against Penn State.
|2 years 48 weeks ago||Cottonpicker is leading the||
Cottonpicker is leading the Pick Six standings this week. Whatever order he decides the numbers go should be followed by the rest of us.
1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 3, 7 it is. We'll have to get his decision on whether seven still ate nine.
|2 years 48 weeks ago||Two things I thought were||
Two things I thought were funny in that video. One, the players look small with a helmet but no pads. As someone already commented, their helmets look comically large.
Two, Brady Hoke ran a zone-read at 1:10 in the video. No wait I'm worried you misunderstand, I don't mean that he called a zone-read for the team. He was the quarterback running a zone-read. That idea is hilarious to me (and maybe only me).
|2 years 48 weeks ago||If somebody could let me know||
If somebody could let me know if it's actually worth watching the midnight show I would appreciate it. I don't really have high hopes for the show.
|2 years 48 weeks ago||Planking is one of those||
Planking is one of those things where, hey you either get it or you don't...
and I don't, but I am so excited to be a part of it.
|2 years 48 weeks ago||This is Michigan. We don't||
This is Michigan. We don't give our student-athletes free gear like other scofflaws. Our athletes give free gear to the coaches.
|2 years 48 weeks ago||More additions!||
Cambridge-Oxford (#1) most well known for crew but probably other sports (rugby, cricket?)
|2 years 49 weeks ago||That's the beauty of college||
That's the beauty of college football. There are so many styles of offense that can work. Tom Osborne/Paul Johnson love running on 70%-80% of downs. June Jones/Mike Leach love passing on 70%-80% of downs.
|2 years 49 weeks ago||Having a good turnover margin||
Having a good turnover margin is a good indicator that you will have a winning record but isn't one of the most important stats. Dr. Saturday (who used to be Sunday Morning QB) used to look at things like this. Here are the first links I could find to college football in general and the Big Ten.
|2 years 49 weeks ago||Why didn't they improve from||
Why didn't they improve from 2009 to 2010? Because the 5 members of the secondary was composed of freshmen and sophomores. Only two of them had played any meaningful time before that. Because the best player on the 2009 defense (Brandon Graham) had graduated and the best player on the 2010 defense (Mike Martin) played most of the year with a high ankle sprain.
There were lots of freshmen and sophomores who got large chunks of playing time. The beauty of that is that this year they are experienced sophomores and juniors.
The defensive coaching is definitely a drastic improvement over last year. I don't think there is anybody that thinks the defensive coaching situation from 2010 should have been kept the same. Whether there was any chance of good defensive coaching under Rodriguez is unknown. But there are a lot of returning experienced players for the new good coaches to work with.
It's like upgrading from Applebee's to a 5-star restaurant. The chef (def. coordinator) is much much better but also the ingredients (returning players) are higher quality.
|2 years 49 weeks ago||Wait, what? You would rather||
Wait, what? You would rather have an ugly offensive day than have solid defensive play?
Obviously that has to be a mistake but I have no idea what you actually meant to say. I'm guessing "take an ugly day on offense with solid defense over a great offense with bad defense"???
|2 years 49 weeks ago||Shit. I have some Hello Kitty||
Shit. I have some Hello Kitty in me. LSU is going to bring it out of me.
|2 years 49 weeks ago||There's an old saying in my||
There's an old saying in my department: "If you have a nice drain pipe, you sure as hell better show it off."
|2 years 49 weeks ago||Okay. I just used the embed||
Okay. I just used the embed button so I didn't intend to specify the size. Let's try again.
Edit: It seems like the embed button automatically specifies the height/width. I came back and removed the size by hand. So embedding videos will work well since you have to use the plain text editor and copy the embed code. But I imagine most people embed pictures just using the button, so they will probably still overhang.
I don't know if this is possible (and if so, may not happen until the offseason) but I would suggest that the embed picture button does two automatic things:
|2 years 49 weeks ago||Let's test out the embedding:||
Let's test out the embedding:
Umm, do we have to do something to make it resize?
|2 years 49 weeks ago||Don't edit your original||
Don't edit your original comment and I'll try to remember to add your picks into the spreadsheet.
|2 years 49 weeks ago||Bucknuts is probably right||
Bucknuts is probably right but my first thought was genetic evidence that OSU fans are d-bags.
|2 years 49 weeks ago||I considered not even listing||
I considered not even listing anybody else just because that would be hilarious.
|2 years 49 weeks ago||If Michigan had been losing||
If Michigan had been losing 0-3 at halftime would you have felt that there was a 90% chance of winning the game? I wouldn't have. But that's what adding in half the point-spread would have computed. In that scenario I would have personally put the win percentage somewhere between 1% and 51% depending on how many remotes I had thrown through the TV.
I agree that the point is to show that the deck is stacked against an underdog but I think the influence at halftime should be minimal. At the beginning of the game, no matter how bad the opponent is, the rules mandate a tie (both teams start at 0). By halftime if a team is losing to/tied with/barely leading a supposedly overmatched team there might be a reason for it. The win probability should account for that.
Maybe adding 0 points at halftime is too little but I think it would be interesting to play around with the numbers. Cutting the point spread in half every 6 minutes [or multiplying the point spread by 2^(-t/6), t in minutes] means you would add 1/32 of the point spread at halftime. So in this game 14-3 would become 15-3.
Maybe that still decays too fast. Then try 2^(-t/10) or 2^(-t/15), which would give us 18-3 or 22-3. Personally I think the halftime score should be as close as possible to the real score.
We want to avoid the wild swings in win probability that occur near the beginning of a game but by halftime that shouldn't be a problem. With a lead of 14-3 at halftime the win probability was already 87%. I would say that's what it felt like to me watching the game. It wasn't a perfect first half so I wasn't 100% confident, but they had started correcting problems on D and O to get that 14-3 lead.
|2 years 49 weeks ago||That's an interesting new win||
That's an interesting new win probability graph. I think the point spread should decay much quicker though. By halftime the game is far enough along that the initial point spread should be virtually meaningless in the calculation of win probability.
So if you stick with a linear rate, the end of the first quarter would add on 50% of the point spread and the end of the half would add 0% of the point spread (so no points added).
Or you could play around with something like cutting the point spread in half every 5, 6, or 10 minutes.
|2 years 49 weeks ago||While I don't disagree with a||
While I don't disagree with a lot of what people are saying in that thread (super-conferences == bad) it does contain one of the most stereotypical Notre Dame comments ever.
It's too bad that Stanford, Michigan, Berkeley, Virginia, Duke, Northwestern, UCLA, and Vanderbilt don't have higher ranked law schools and vastly more alums in order to help out the conference's side.
|2 years 49 weeks ago||Let's say he's right about||
Let's say he's right about there being no tackling sleds (which seems unlikely but that's not what I'm concerned about here). We've seen videos of them using tackling dummies. Is there a major advantage to tackling sleds over tackling dummies?
|2 years 49 weeks ago||Well, then you didn't get||
Well, then you didn't get three seconds of TV time.....
|2 years 49 weeks ago||You're right. They didn't||
You're right. They didn't even have sleds, they stole West Quad dinner trays. Lack of morals!
|2 years 49 weeks ago||Did you let Swoop "take a||
Did you let Swoop "take a picture" with your camera? If so, then you were on TV. When I saw that I thought it might be you since you had just been to 2 EMU games taking pictures.
And if it was you, did he actually take a picture? How did it turn out?
|2 years 50 weeks ago||What's your gripe then?||
What's your gripe then?
|2 years 50 weeks ago||I didn't know who would win,||
I didn't know who would win, but I definitely thought MSU would keep it close. If Notre Dame won, I thought it would be by a field goal.
|2 years 50 weeks ago||It was posted 2 and a half||
It was posted 2 and a half hours after the Michigan game got over. Rodriguez already got fired for his defense. No need to make shit up in order to make him look bad.
|2 years 50 weeks ago||I haven't checked but||
I haven't checked but nbcsports.com might have a legit stream. NBC is actually pretty good about online video.
|2 years 50 weeks ago||Blue and gold. Michigan||
Blue and gold. Michigan State isn't a big enough game to pull out the green jerseys. MSU is no Army after all.
|2 years 50 weeks ago||What's with those lines on||
What's with those lines on the parlay? Does a parlay always give favorable odds over a straight-up bet? I would have loved PSU at -1.
|2 years 50 weeks ago||Sorry man. You can sleep on||
Sorry man. You can sleep on my couch for a couple nights while you look for an apartment to rent.
|2 years 50 weeks ago||My primary games are MSU-ND||
My primary games are MSU-ND and Northwestern-Army. With an eye on UT-UF and maybe Neb-UW.
How are people doing in the MGoBlog College Pick'em? Am I the only one who thought Auburn's luck would hold for one more week?
|2 years 50 weeks ago||I like MSU +5, Stanford -9,||
I like MSU +5, Stanford -9, Northwestern -6 and Georgia Tech -7.
For MSU I don't know who will win, but if Notre Dame wins I bet it will be close.
|2 years 50 weeks ago||Is that JT Floyd play the||
Is that JT Floyd play the "punch" that some Notre Dame fans were talking about here http://www.ndnation.com/boards/showpost.php?b=football;pid=234027;d=all?
I don't recall any punches at all. If this is the punch, then that is an incredibly lame ref complaint.
|2 years 50 weeks ago||Without looking it is||
Without looking it is interesting to guess each conference's top 5. Most of the time the top 3 are pretty obvious but 4 and 5 are tougher.
The Pac-12's "top 4" is Stanford, Cal, UCLA and then USC or Washington (with the other being fifth I assume). That is a very good top 4/5. Here I am very confident about the top 5 but not sure which is 4th or 5th.
Who are the ACC's top 5? Duke, Virginia, UNC are almost certainly the top 3. Then two of Maryland, Miami, Georgia Tech?
Big Ten's top three are easy: Northwestern, Michigan, Wisconsin. While not as confident as the Pac-12 I am pretty sure Illinois and Ohio State are probably 4/5.
The others are tough because there are not as many very good schools. I would guess the SEC has a top 3 of Vanderbilt, Florida, Georgia and then a big cliff. For the Big East I would imagine Pitt and Syracuse are the top 2 with maybe Rutgers as third?
The Big Twelve has Texas and then something even more drastic than the SEC/Big East cliff.
|2 years 50 weeks ago||Scott is entered also. My||
Scott is entered also. My point is more that other people who haven't said anything need to ask (preferably nicely).
|2 years 50 weeks ago||Since the comments are||
Since the comments are time-stamped I don't have a problem adding in the entries that were posted as comments on the original page. If somebody went back and changed their picks, it wouldn't count because the time stamp would show it. So I don't think there's a problem with fairness.
I can only add people who ask me though, because I have no way of knowing who entered under a different name than their username.
I wanted to embed the form right in the diary but it was not working at all. That would probably have solved these problems.
|2 years 50 weeks ago||Thanks for the advice. No||
Thanks for the advice. No more exams. One of my students copied another student's homework. What should I do?
|2 years 50 weeks ago||I think he was just||
I think he was just "channeling his inner Lloyd" but you do make interesting points. Maybe that wasn't WHY Hoke made the decision, but it certainly might have affected Denard. He definitely looked disappointed/pissed when they told him to take a knee at the end of the half.
|2 years 50 weeks ago||We don't hear about big &||
We don't hear about big & fast because that's what everybody definitely wants. The perfect defense and offense is composed of players who are bigger than the other team AND faster than the other team. Those players are 5 stars on Scout/Rivals. Nobody disagrees that big and fast is the best.
The interesting question is when you can't get the perfect player, which do you prefer. Rodriguez (and many others) likes fast guys while Lloyd (and many others) likes big guys. There isn't really a wrong answer as long as your scheme uses your team's size or speed correctly.
|2 years 50 weeks ago||You forgot the important part||
You forgot the important part of that rule: the receiver can run on his knees with it. That's why Rodriguez loved his slot ninjas, the refs wouldn't know whether they had gotten off their knees or not.
|2 years 50 weeks ago||Most important stat of the||
Most important stat of the game: Michigan won the second quarter 7-3. At the end of the third I was pretty pissed at you, thinking, "sure they won the second quarter but they're losing all the rest." Now I recognize the genius!
Let the good times roll!
|2 years 50 weeks ago||NDNation was pretty fun to||
NDNation was pretty fun to skim. This was my favorite: (NSFH) http://www.ndnation.com/boards/showpost.php?b=football;pid=233156;d=all
|2 years 51 weeks ago||At first glance I thought it||
At first glance I thought it was Bruce Campbell. I'm not sure if that's right, but I also planned to see if the mgoboard could help.
|2 years 51 weeks ago||Michigan wins 41-38. The||
Michigan wins 41-38. The game is decided in the final minute.
|2 years 51 weeks ago||How many people use "cool||
How many people use "cool story bro" in real life? I do.
|2 years 51 weeks ago||Two-for-one deals might be||
Two-for-one deals might be the only way to get Dave Brandon to consider it.
I wonder if any of those schools (especially ones with budget troubles like Cal and UCLA) would be willing to make a 2-for-1 deal with something on the side. It seems unlikely that any of them would accept a straight-up 2-for-1 but maybe something could work out.
Would a 2-for-1 and $500,000 be acceptable to them? Using Brian's previous calculations that would be a ticket surcharge of only 80 cents per game over the three year span. If you raised the price a full dollar, that would be a surplus of $435,000 which would probably make up for concession sales lost to that one away game.
Another option (either instead of, or in addition to the cash payment) is something like we worked out with Utah. Have a 2-for-1 football agreement and a 1-for-1 or 2-for-2 deal in basketball. I'm not even going to attempt to make calculations involving basketball but I don't think it should affect anything. The basketball team regularly travels for opponents, now we are just pairing that up with a football opponent.
|2 years 52 weeks ago||Yeah it should be a||
Yeah it should be a competitive game but it sounds very unexciting with such a quiet crowd. Part of that might be the BC crowd but I think part of it is the crowd mic isn't very good (or some other technical problem).
Does your audio keep going silent for about half a second or is that just my crappy cable?
|2 years 52 weeks ago||It's unknown at this point||
It's unknown at this point but hopefully he'll be back soon. He is supposed to play this season after rupturing his achilles tendon in last year's Iowa game. There were rumors during fall camp that he was still limping. Apparently those reports are correct that he still hasn't fully recovered.
|2 years 52 weeks ago||Northwestern gave up a long||
Northwestern gave up a long run down to the 5 yard line but managed to hold BC to a field goal. In a minute we'll see how their offense works without Dan Persa.
|2 years 52 weeks ago||Thanks.||
|2 years 52 weeks ago||The League is awesome.||
The League is awesome. I had forgotten about that scene.
|3 years 2 hours ago||Love Pick4||
First off, I love the Pick4! I'm so glad it's back.
What happens if I want to change my picks? Just resubmit and my new picks count?
|3 years 2 hours ago||I also just looked it up.||
I also just looked it up. Edwin Baker and Le'Veon Bell are the good running backs who are both back as a junior and sophomore respectively.
|3 years 3 hours ago||I haven't looked into it, but||
I haven't looked into it, but the running backs return for MSU I think. Good QB and good RB can make life dangerous for a "less than great" defense.
Also, I think a major reason for the categorization of those games is the home (and first night game ever...) vs. away difference. At Notre Dame this year would probably be lean to loss or likely loss. Home against MSU would be more of a tossup.
|3 years 4 days ago||Allen Gant plays for||
Allen Gant plays for "Sylvania Southview HS." Sylvania has two high schools, "Northview" and "Southview."
|3 years 1 week ago||There are 296,875 possible||
There are 296,875 possible entries. However, the 3,125 entries that pick Eastern Michigan as the unranked team are probably not going to be winners.
|3 years 1 week ago||Final poll||
The winner is based solely on the final poll of the year.
The weekly standings updates are just like regular season polls. Interesting to look at, but completely meaningless when determining the champion.
|3 years 1 week ago||Interesting idea. I was just||
Interesting idea. I was just going to print out everyone's ballot and update the scores by hand every week.
In all seriousness, thanks for your offer but I have it taken care of in Excel. It can be a little tough to learn some of their functions but you can do quite a lot with a low amount of work. The key here is using a lookup table (which is why I made the unranked team a list instead of a text box -- so that everyone will have the same spelling).
OT but since you mention Matlab, I should take this opportunity to plug an open-source competitor called Sage. It uses python as a base language, so programming in it is very easy.
|3 years 1 week ago||That's a great strategy. If||
That's a great strategy. If those teams win you can say to yourself, "At least it helps my Pick 6 contest." If they lose, well that's probably worth more than Pick 6.
|3 years 1 week ago||That was quick! It's going||
That was quick! It's going to be a fun contest this year.
|3 years 1 week ago||No he was completely serious.||
No he was completely serious. He's a big Gregg Easterbrook fan and subscriber of the cold coach theory.
|3 years 1 week ago||As other people have||
As other people have mentioned it is probably not a good idea to stay "north of chicago." There are only about three main options for hotels in Evanston: the Hilton Garden Inn, the Omni Hotel and the Best Western. All of them are fine for their level but they might be much pricier than they need to be that weekend. Chicago meanwhile has so many hotels that it wouldn't notice if there were 3 Big Ten football games in the city that weekend.
If you don't want to stay downtown there are a bunch of good neighborhoods that are north and still on the red line. Try Gold Coast. It's a nice neighborhood really close to the shopping on the Magnificent mile. Or a little farther north is Lincoln Park and Old Town, a slightly underrated neighborhood. Finally, I don't know if there are many hotels but Andersonville and Edgewater are a pretty cool "suburban style neighborhood" that has a huge Swedish bakery.
|3 years 3 weeks ago||Exactly. The four year||
Exactly. The four year average is 940.5. Admittedly the highest score is about to roll off but as long as 2010-11 is above a 909 (spoiler alert: it will be) it'll still be fine.
|3 years 3 weeks ago||Notre Dame may have God but||
Notre Dame may have God but we have Denard.