|3 years 13 weeks ago||Scheme?||
Gardner played the last four games last year and had just 1 int per game. M scored 35, 38, 42, and 21 points against Minn, NW, Iowa, ohio.
This year, it was 9 ints in the first 4 games. Since then just 3 in 6 games. The first 3 of those games the offense was still humming with 42, 40, and 63 points.
The last three games the offense has cratered. I don't think the talent level has changed or the level of competition.
It just appears we are being outcoached.
|3 years 14 weeks ago||Yikes||
I messed up my cut and paste. Thanks, I'll make the correction.
|3 years 15 weeks ago||Turnovers||
A lot has to do with turnovers. Akron was -2 TOM, UConn was -3 TOM
2012: ND was -4 TOM, ohio was -2 TOM (both of those games were lost primarily due to TOs).
2011: Iowa was -2 TOM (another loss due to TOs). ND was +2 TOM (yeah, a win due to TOs).
|3 years 17 weeks ago||Haitian Creole||
"I, Fitzgerald Toussaint am half African American and Haitian. My mother is African American and my father is Haitian born and raised there.
|3 years 17 weeks ago||Yikes||
How did a POST (i.e. written words -- not spoken words) result in a discussion on how something is pronounced??
I am trying to figure out if my faith in the audacity of the MGoBlog community has been restored or my sense of doom about humanity in general has been magnified.
|3 years 18 weeks ago||Probability?||
With Gardner having a 7% interception percentage, is it more likely to throw an interception or have Gibbons miss a field goal?
Is there a breakeven distance?
|3 years 19 weeks ago||Of Course||
Here are the other B1G TOMs/game:
Nebraska = +1.0
Notice anything? After looking at TOs for the last 5 years, I have concluded that TOs are more a reflection of a team's overall performance rather than a determining factor of a team's performance (good teams have better TOMs, poor teams have worse TOMs).
|3 years 21 weeks ago||Watch This Space||
I am fully aware that MGoBrian and others have stated their e-pinion that turnovers are random. Not buying it.
I challenge anyone to ask/tell Brady Hoke that he is wasting his time talking about turnovers (both to the media and his team). Or ask him why he is wasting so much time in practices with drills that are meant to minimize turnovers.
I challenge anyone who watches Devin Gardner run with the ball to rationally believe that if he fumbles it is just "a random event or just bad luck".
Anyone who is counting on regression to the mean to solve Michigan's turnover problem is going to be very, very disappointed. There are solutions -- but just ignoring the problem and hoping it will all even out, is not one of the solutions.
Since this is the bye week, it is as good as time as any to revisit this question in more detail with some data.
Watch this space next Monday.
|3 years 21 weeks ago||Yup||
I posted that in last week's diary. But, to refresh your memory:
Quarterbacks!: In 2011, quarterbacks were responsible for 19 of 21 turnovers. In 2012, quarterbacks were responsible for 23 of 25 turnovers. So far in 2013, quarterbacks are responsible for 8 of 8 turnovers.
After Saturday, make that 11 of 12 turnovers this year.
|3 years 22 weeks ago||I Agree||
During the game, I also thought the turnovers were more of an impact. In fact, I was shocked when the calculations came out the way they did.
I think the Mathlete did an analysis last year (perhaps the year before?) that indicated the change in momentum due to turnovers was not very significant. But, it seemed like the TOs hurt M a lot more than the EP indicates.
|3 years 23 weeks ago||Gallon?||
Am I missing something or are the stats for Gallon missing on the +/- chart?
|3 years 23 weeks ago||Nada||
Nope, I am not a sudent and they did not ask for any ID. Just signed a sheet at the info desk to get a parking pass.
|3 years 23 weeks ago||Sorry||
Did not go to Bo's. The front exhibit is 5 display tables and the continuation in the back is 4 cabinets on the wall.
|3 years 24 weeks ago||Next Column||
In the chart the first column (FMB) shows all fumbles by player and the second column indicates if the fumble was lost (FL).
|3 years 24 weeks ago||Ooops||
Thanks for the catch. I'll fix the WMU goof.
|4 years 14 weeks ago||My Bad||
The data is in the table but I forgot to highlight it in maize. Ooops.
Thanks for the catch.
|4 years 15 weeks ago||This Year Has Been The Exception||
Most of the computer ranking systems do NOT even use their own data to predict games on a weekly basis. So, FEI is one of the few systems available.
FEI has a very good track record at predictions in general and for M specifically. But, this year has certainly been an exception. I will ask Fremeau if he has an explanation for this.
|4 years 15 weeks ago||Minor Correction||
S&P+ is not a Fremeau stat.
FEI is the Fremeau stat and is possession based.
S&P+ is a Bill Connelly stat and is play based.
NCAA F/+ is a combined rating.
Beginning with the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings.
|4 years 16 weeks ago||Big Bounce||
I just find it hard to beieve a ball would bounce 5 feet into the air if a player was holding on to it and the ball did not hit the ground!
And, if the catch had not been secured when the ball hit the ground, it was immediately an incomplete pass.
|4 years 17 weeks ago||Yup||
I posed the question to Fremeau and he replied that he includes a fake punt as just another offensive play.
Kind of like going for it on 4th down. If you don't make it, it is not considered a TO.
This is where the "official" stats are really not reflecting what actually happened in the game.
|4 years 17 weeks ago||Raw Scores||
For FEI, the GE value represents the "raw scores" before adjustments for opponents.
M is ranked #23 in GE with an SoS of 9
Nebraska is #53 in GE with an SoS of 46
MSU is #47 in GE with an SoS of 38
So, yeah, I am totally confused with the FEI rankings
|4 years 17 weeks ago||Weird stats||
Yeah, I agree. I think the fake punt ends up as just another play in the official stats. Because the FEI folks actually gave M the advantage in Special Teams (by a whopping 5.2 points!) I assume they do not even include this as a special teams play.
|4 years 17 weeks ago||Not Looking Good||
I doubt that M will get close to my predicted TOM for the year. But, TOs tend to happen in very erratic fashion (none for a few games, then one game with a bunch, etc.) so it may happen.
I'm not holding my breath.
|4 years 18 weeks ago||Your Wish Is My Command||
According to the FEI folks:
"Half of all teams finished within 10 ranking spots of their preseason FEI projection last year. 26 percent finished within five ranking spots. 20 percent finished within two ranking spots."
"the correlation of FEI projections to FEI final ratings at the end of the year is .785."
BUT, they also say,
"Projecting team ratings and game outcomes for 124 teams is relatively easy at the macro level. For the most part, the top teams consistently dominate college football and are easy to identify through the projection factors"
M was ranked #23 in the FEI preseason with 8 FBS wins projected.
|4 years 19 weeks ago||Thanks||
The link to BCFToys should be fixed. Thanks.
The trend in defense (both FEI and National Rankings) is very encouraging.
|4 years 20 weeks ago||Turnovers||
Purdue was +3 in turnovers against Marshall with two picks being returned for TDs.
The folks at FEI calculated a 10 point loss by Purdue against Marshall without the TOs.
|4 years 21 weeks ago||Can't Lose||
I guarantee we will not lose this Saturday!!!
|4 years 21 weeks ago||You Sir Are Correct!||
You are absolutely correct. TOs are not (and never have been) evenly distributed.
Last year, M had 2 games with zero TOs, 5 games with 1 TO, 2 games with 2 TOs, 3 games with 3 TOs, and 1 game with 4 TOs.
In order by game: 0 3 1 4 0 3 1 2 2 3 1 1 1
Also, NOT random (I too just can't help myself.....)
|4 years 21 weeks ago||Absolutely!||
Yes, of course. But I don't have any explanation of why Denard's interception % would improve so dramatically during the last 9 games of last year. Just hope it repeats again this year.
|4 years 21 weeks ago||Comparable Stats||
Uh, let's look at comparable stats:
After 4 games in 2011, DRob had a 8.33% interception rate (ints/pass attempt) and improved dramatically over the last 9 games with a 4.72 int%.
After 4 games this year, DRob has a 8.0% int%. Actually better than last year.
|4 years 22 weeks ago||Super Slow||
In the ND games I watched (Purdue & MSU), their pace was sloooooooow.
Whatever happened to the "up tempo" and "please NBC don't let commercials upset our pace of the game"??
|4 years 23 weeks ago||Oooops||
Yes, you are right.
Score without TOs should be: M 31 --- AFA 24.16
|4 years 23 weeks ago||Check It Out||
Check out the data -- M had double digit NEGATIVE turnover margins in every one RR's 3 years.
So, it is totally consistent with the theory that poor teams have poor TOMs.
|4 years 23 weeks ago||I'll Keep Saying It||
Nope, TOs are not random. Very good teams have good TO ratios, very poor teams have poor TO ratios.
If TOs were random:
1) There would be a 50/50 chance that every team (including M) would have a negative TOM every year. M has had a positive TOM 10 of the last 14 years and that includes the 3 RR disaster years (when M was a very bad team).
2) M has not been a very good team so far this year. Therefore, I am not surprised that the TOM has been poor. If they do not improve significantly, the win/loss record will not be good and the TOM will not be good either.
|4 years 23 weeks ago||Not Really||
Uh, yea -- we've been in the Blue Lot forever and deliberately moved several times to get away from you guys!
Your music is so loud that even trying to talk is almost impossible. I expect loud music when I go to rock concerts -- not when I am tailgaiting with friends and family and trying to enjoy one another's conversations.
You may think that it is your right to ruin other people's game experience by blasting noise much louder than you possibly need.
If you tried this at your house, I'm sure your neighbors would not appreciate it. In fact, it is certainly against all noise ordinances.
True Michigan fans are more considerate of others than you are.
|4 years 24 weeks ago||Penn State||
Penn State was only at 95.17% attendance in 2011 at 101,427
They just had 97,186 on Saturday. Down to just 90.59% capacity.
|4 years 24 weeks ago||Attendance||
Per NCAA: Attendance in 2011 was down only an average of 415 people per game at 45,498 (versus 2010).
As far as I can see, 2008 was the highest ever and was only an average of 46,456.
A dropoff of just 958 seats per game.
|4 years 24 weeks ago||FEI||
Brain Fremeau at FEI is predicting M 40 - 14 over AFA with a 95% win probability.
Hope he's right.
|4 years 24 weeks ago||Selective Amnesia||
The pass to Gallon was perfect. The pass to Gardner was terrible. If the defender had not already fallen down, that would not have been completed.
And, I suppose the 7.4% interception rate (which I adjusted for the Bellomy int) -- ranked #117 nationally -- will win a lot of games?
|4 years 24 weeks ago||One Game||
The loss of Countess will result in the loss of one additional game this year. It is just plain silly to believe that "it's not the player, it's the position".
That would say that if Mike Martin, David Molk, etc. had been out for all of last year M would still have won 11 games.
|4 years 24 weeks ago||Upset||
For the first game of the season, it has been 8 months since the team has played a real football game. Even scrimmages do not come close to actual game speed and conditions. The first game of any season for any team is the game that may be the least indicative of their abilities. So, upsets are more likely.
It sure looks like Alabama was the exception (much to the detriment of M) but look at the other games. Several teams had close calls beating even the cupcakes. Imagine if they had played much tougher competition.
Even though your opponent in subsequent weeks will also have played earlier games, the overall performance of all the teams will be closer to what they are really able to accomplish.
Thus, upsets are less likely after week 1.
|4 years 24 weeks ago||Risky||
I have never seen the holder get injured. The B1G (and NFL) are limiting KO returns because there are so many injuries. Probably the same with punt returns but hard to reduce those.
If you have a lot of depth at a position, then special teams make sense. If you don't have depth, it is very risky to put your starters on the special teams.
Countess was hurt on special teams, not playing his position.
I believe the same thing happened with JT Floyd last year -- hurt on special teams.
|4 years 24 weeks ago||Easy||
The Blue Team, of course!!
|4 years 24 weeks ago||Oooops||
You were too late with the kittens. The DVR is toast. Dish is not going to be happy.
|4 years 24 weeks ago||Insightful||
Yes, if you think about the life cycle costs (cost over the long run, not just immediate gratification), this is likely to be a very high price indeed.
|4 years 24 weeks ago||Expenses||
M is ranked 4th in profit. 63.2 mil in revenue, 18.3 mil expenses, 44.9 profit.
The total expenses for M football is $18.3 million in 10-11. That is only 1.4 mil per game.
This must include equipment, coaches salaries, travel, etc. etc.
I doubt if the incremental cost of a home game is more than a 100K or so.
|4 years 24 weeks ago||Diversion||
Really, almost everyone is trying to forget about the game. Go check out the live blog.
They've switched to crystal meth -- alcohol wasn't enuf. (check the comments)
|4 years 24 weeks ago||Makes NO Sense||
Uh, M gets the $5.5 million from a home game with a patsy from the MAC that never, ever gets a return date.
Plus, 90% of the people who go to home games were priced out of this one --- me included.
|4 years 24 weeks ago||Not Enuf||
Whatever I'm drinking, it's not enuf. My liver will never forgive Dave Brandon.
Yeah, it's 24-0.
|4 years 25 weeks ago||Check It Out||
I do a weekly Turnover Analysis during the season in the Diaries. In only 25% of college football games, are TOs a factor in determining the winning team. Turnovers alone will rarely make a poor team (from a W/L standpoint) into a very good team.
Last year M ended the season with a +2 win/loss advantage due to TOM. So, I would postulate M would have ended the year at 9-4 instead of 11-2 without the TOM advantage.
A 9-4 record is still very good (typically top 25). So M was a very good team that was benefited by TOs to be an even better team.
|4 years 25 weeks ago||Turnovers Are NOT Random||
Turnovers are primarily performance based. Very good teams have good Turnover Margin (TOM). Very poor teams have poor TOM.
M will finish the year with a better TOM than last year (it was +7).
DRob will throw half the interceptions he did last year.
The experienced secondary will increase interception takeaways.
Forced fumbles will stay about the same.
Fumble recovery rates will move towards 50% but will end the year at 60%.
|4 years 25 weeks ago||M TOM This Year||
M will have a very good team this year and DRob will show tremendous improvement in interceptions. Fumble recovery rates will be closer to 50%.
End result: M will have more than a +7 TOM in 2012.
|4 years 25 weeks ago||Wait, What?||
If TOM is truly random, then there should be a 50% probability that M will have a Negative TOM this year -- and every other year!
But, you say you expect M to have a good TOM this year. That seems to indicate TOM is not random.
My conclusion has always been that TOM is a reflection of performance. Good teams have better TOM -- poor teams have worse TOM. I even believe this applies to individual games -- the better team will tend to have the better TOM (obviously there are games here and there that are exceptions but, overall, the data supports this).
|4 years 25 weeks ago||This Is Michigan||
Yes, the point is that fumbles recovery may be random -- but only over several years as the data proves! So, in any one year, recovery rates and/or interception % will vary significantly.
And, TOM does not appear to be random even over many years. In earlier posts I have looked at dozens of teams and a large majority of teams have very large TOMs year after year.
For example, USC had an average TOM of +10.2 for 10 years (1999-2008) and had 5 straight years of double digit TOMs (16, 18, 20, 19, 21) from 2000-2005.
Finally, my (our?) primary concern is Michigan football. So, if the TO analysis turns out to be valid for M, that is what is most important.
|5 years 2 weeks ago||Actually, No||
I started looking at TOs in 2009 and Phil Steele is wrong on several accounts.
1. Turnovers are not primarily luck. Many teams have positve double digit TOs for several years in a row and many others have negative double digit TOs for several years in a row (I'm looking at you M in 2008-2010). Luck does not explain this.
2. The teams Steele isolates (those with double-digit turnovers) are the teams whose TOM is primarily due to performance and not luck. Therefore his basic premise is incorrect.
Even if the double-digit TOM was primarily due to luck, there is no cause and effect. The percentage of teams that “turnaround” the next season is approximately the same when TOM is completely ignored.
From 1999 to the present, 72% of all FBS teams that had a winning record of at least +2 (7-5 or better) had the same or weaker records the next year regardless of TOM. This includes approximately 50 teams each year. (Steele: 77% for the teams with double-digit turnovers.)
From 1999 to the present, 74% of all FBS teams that had a losing record of at least -2 (5-7 or worse) had the same or stronger records the next year regardless of TOM. This includes approximately 43 teams each year. (Steele: 80% for the teams with double-digit turnovers.)
Basically, it is very difficult for winning teams to keep on winning at the same rate and very difficult for losing teams to keep on losing at the same rate regardless of what TOM happens to be.
|5 years 7 weeks ago||Plan On It||
"Win will cause me to... ...........Also enjoy life."
|5 years 9 weeks ago||Huh?||
Yes, I think that college football athletes should be the place we take a stand that all "employees" deserve and should be paid a "fair" wage.
|5 years 9 weeks ago||Interceptions?||
What about the INTs?? In 2010 the Int% (ints per pass attempts) was 3.8% and it skyrocketed to 5.8% this year. On a game by game basis, there does not seem to be much of a trend as it bounced all over the place.
|5 years 10 weeks ago||There's No Crying In Football!||
Jeez, someone needs to tell those kids that the F-bomb is a perfectly sane way to react -- but crying??? -- no way!
|5 years 11 weeks ago||Agreed||
Yes, with two different players saying that M busted the same coverage on the 2 ohio TDs, my vote goes to the players not executing rather than RPS.
|5 years 12 weeks ago||Just A Fumble||
Hagerup was charged with a fumble but since he recovered his own fumble, no turnover.
|5 years 12 weeks ago||You Are Right||
Yikes, that completely escaped me. That ends up to be worth 3.02 EP in advantage to M.
Thanks for the catch.
BTW, I have no idea why certain items (blocked punts, blocked FG, safeties, etc.) are not considered to officialy be a turnover.
|5 years 12 weeks ago||I Agree!||
Yes, any analysis of sports is inherently flawed. And, I have made major changes in trying to understand the impact of turnovers. But, simply counting turnovers or using an "average" value for each turnover seems more flawed than most other analysis. (The only analysis that is worse is looking at turnover margin for an entire year -- yes, I mean you Mr. Steele.)
For now, Expected Points seem to be the most reasonable at reflecting the factors involved in the impact of a turnover by considering down, distance, type of turnover, etc.
I will be doing a year-end review next week and will be making some more changes to better understand turnovers and turnover margin.
|5 years 13 weeks ago||Where To Begin?||
Not sure I understand a lot of this comment. But, here goes.
(1) All data is thru the first 10 games (this year and 2010). Last 2 games in 2010 were Wisc and osu. Last 2 games this year are Neb and osu. Data seems as comparable as you are likely to get.
(2) So, you are saying that the fact that M's opponents had 16% fewer plays thru 10 games had no impact on the points they scored? That seems unrealistic. Therefore, I concluded that tempo had an impact.
(3) I'll take another look at the data correlation (see 3a below). That said, if you belive TOs are primarily luck then you must also belive that RR was about the most unlucky coach on the planet (3 straight years of double digit negative turnover margin) and Brady Hoke is just getting lucky this year. I just find that hard to believe.
(3a) Here's a great site for TO analysis:
I have been looking mainly at won-loss record versus turnover margin. In a previous diary
there was a good correlation. I'll have to look closer at the defensive correlation over the past several years.
|5 years 13 weeks ago||Absolutely||
Yes, of course, it was just the Illini OT. Notice in the table that I just deleted 20/22 points and 14/11 plays.
|5 years 13 weeks ago||Perhaps||
On the per game stats, perhaps we should use 9.75 instead of 10. Of course, that is another reason the per play stats make more sense. Less distortion.
The other question would be whether M and WMU would have scored any more points under those conditions.
|5 years 14 weeks ago||WMU||
Yes, I included WMU (used MGoBlue.com data)
I completely disagree with the NCAA about the WMU game. The distortion caused by not including the game is obviously greater than the distortion of including the game. Especially since several NCAA rankings are based on absolute numbers and not on per game numbers.
|5 years 14 weeks ago||MGoBlue||
MGoBlue.com has those stats back to 1998.
BTW comparing total season stats to stats after 10 games may not be that meaningful. Howeva, since M got crushed in the last 3 games last year and it is unlikley that will happen again this year, the comparisons may hold up.
Thru 10 games last year, M had allowed a paltry 5.9 yards per play (sarcasm).
|5 years 14 weeks ago||LSU Alabama||
Woot, 9-7 (in regulation)! That means this game will be better than the "game of the century" that ended at a miserable 9-6 in OT.
Michigan and Illinois in a rematch for the MNC.
|5 years 14 weeks ago||Couch Forecast||
Warm, in the low 70's with plenty of snacks and lots of liquid brain lubricant (it will be useful -- one way or the other).
And, yes -- it will be just my wife and me. As with many others, I can not be allowed to watch M games on TV with other non-fanatical friends -- they just don't understand.
|5 years 14 weeks ago||Complete Denial||
Are you kidding me? Donate money to defend a serial child abuser. Horseshit.
"Sam Stellatella, a three-position player in the 1950s, has donated money to Sandusky's defense and urged other former players to do the same."
And don't give me that, "innocent until proven guilty" crap. Does anyone (and I do mean anyone) believe those 8 kids are lying about being sexually abused by Sandusky?? Let Sandusky go bankrupt trying to defend himself!
Just when I thought it couldn't get worse, Sam Stellatella goes down the abyss.
|5 years 14 weeks ago||Heroes||
McQueary should have tried to stop the child from being abused. There is no excuse for not trying to stop the abuse.
But, after that point McQueary appears to be the only one in this case that tried to do the right thing. He reported it to his superior (in detail according to McQueary). He reported in detail to other superiors. He appears to be the only one who told the GJ the truth. The GJ report states that "The Grand Jury finds the graduate assistant's testimony to be extremely credible" (page 8)
The GJ report also states that "portions of the testimony of Tim Curley and Gary Schultz are not credible" (page 11).
McQueary made a very bad split second decision but without his honesty it is very likely that Paterno and the rest of PSU would have gotten away with the coverup and would still be sitting smugly in their jobs.
That is why McQueary has not and should not be fired.
BTW, if is doubtful that anyone on the current staff will be retained in the future. The risk that they would be implicated in the future is just too great to take that chance. So, McQueary and all the other coaches, assistant coaches, etc. will be searching for work soon.
|5 years 15 weeks ago||Fall Guy||
As I read the Grand Jury report, it is obvious that Curley and Schultz are trying to make McQueary the fall guy by claiming he did not tell them anything specific.
The Grand Jury concluded McQueary was telling the truth and the others are lying (see page 12 of the report) and that is why they are charged with perjury.
If McQueary tells the Grand Jury that he only may have seen some fondling and this is what he told his superiors, all this never gets exposed. Sandusky gets arrested but PSU gets away with the cover up.
Because McQueary tells the truth, the cover up is exposed. BTW, McQueary has no reason to think that Curley and others will lie to the Grand Jury.
Curley is more than happy to throw McQueary under the bus to save himself.
|5 years 15 weeks ago||Not That Concerned||
Curley is basically fired unless something spectacular happens (and it won't). The fact that he remains officially on administrative leave for a while is not a big deal.
Curley is already lawyered up and the attorneys may be driving some of the time table.
Not to worry, he is GONE!
|5 years 15 weeks ago||Read the Report||
It was JoPa that said "the graduate assistant had seen Jerry Sandusky in the Lash Building showers fondling or doing something of a sexual nature to a youn boy". It does not say that this is what JoPa was told by McQueary. It says this is what JoPa told Curly
The report goes on to say, "Approximately one and one-half weeks later ... the graduate assistant reported to Curley and Schultz that he had witnessed what he believed to be Sandusky having anal sex with a boy in the Lasch Building showers."
Why would McQueary have told JoPa of just fondling and then later told Curley it was anal sex?
Isn't it more likely that JoPa downplayed the incident to protect his friend Sandusky?
I just heard on ESPN that McQueary has said he told JoPa the specifics.
|5 years 15 weeks ago||Big Difference||
Many people seem to be forgetting that JoPa and the administration decided to cover this up, sweep it under the carpet!
And you believe those folks version of what happened? Why?
|5 years 15 weeks ago||Really?||
I can't imagine the damage done by being molested. All data shows that only about 10-15% of people actually molested ever come out. They are afraid it will reflect poorly on them!
The probability that someone who was not abused would try to fabricate a story (presumably to get money in a settlement) is .000000000000001%.
|5 years 15 weeks ago||Time Line||
The time line indicates that JoPa already knew about Sandusky being accused in 1998. McQueary probably did not know.
And, I would not be surprised at all if JoPa, and others, told McQueary to keep his mouth shut -- or else.
The board of trustees could have easily removed McQueary. They did not.
|5 years 15 weeks ago||Why JoPa Is More To Blame Than McQueary||
When McQueary saw Sandusky abusing a child, he had a split second to make a decision. This was his boss and he was a graduate assistant. He obviously made the wrong decision but it was a split second decision.
Within hours he realized his mistake and went to JoPa. Then, JoPa and others made a calculated, conscious decision over days of deliberations to cover it all up -- knowing full well about Sandusky's previous incidents.
McQueary made a split second decision that was wrong and tried to correct it.
JoPa and others made a calculated decision that was also horribly wrong and then continued to make many othere decisions that were horribly wrong over years and years.
McQueary was a young adult in his 20's conflicted by what his boss had done.
JoPa and the others were mature adults in their 50's - 70's.
|5 years 15 weeks ago||Probably 2-3 years at best||
Last year when Brian indicated to the folks in NY (around early November, I think) that he did not think RR would make it as the coach at M, I posted "Ugh, you realize that means another 2-3 years of meh football as the new coach implements his new system."
Right now it does not appear that we have any QB that can run the pro-style offense. This may take a while.
|5 years 15 weeks ago||No No No!||
Do you really believe that the decisons by JoPa, AD, Prez, etc. were made over a cup of coffee? No way!
These people had meeting after meeting to discuss what to do about Sandusky. In 2002, they all were aware of the 1998 police investigation. They overtly decided to cover it up. Pure and simple. That is why all of them (JoPa included) are so disgusting. And they maintained the cover up for years as more and more children were abused. How can anyone condone that?
|5 years 15 weeks ago||Coverup & Conspiracy||
Many are trying to paint this as "one horrible mistake" by JoPa. It was no such thing.
This was a conspiracy and coverup by at least 5 high ranking officials at PSU that lasted over a decade. Jo Pa and the others made horrendous mistakes over and over again in their attempt (almost successful) to cover it all up.
|5 years 15 weeks ago||Much Worse||
It now appears that JoePa and the others knew about this since at least 1998. It is hard to believe that a police investigation at that time did not involve any discussions with JoePa and others.
Everyone wondered why Sandusky "retired" so abruptly -- perhaps, now we know.
JoePa and others testified to the GrandJury months ago and still never said anything publicly.
So, this appears to be several bad decisions by JoePa and others over many, many years.
|5 years 15 weeks ago||Bare Minimum||
I can't believe that a head football coach would use the rationale that he had done "what was required legally". That is, the bare minimum.
JoePa would kick any kid off the team that only did the bare minimum.
|5 years 15 weeks ago||Stadium Layut||
Try just JFGI:
Here is the layout.
Basically Sections 24-34 are students.
You will have to stand up for the entire game (on the benches) in the student section.
|5 years 15 weeks ago||Denard's Problem||
IMHO Denard is not getting very many snaps in practice where he is running the ball. The coaches are trying to get him to stay in the pocket and you can see that he is reluctant to run.
Last year DRob got lots of snaps (almost all?) where he was asked to run and encouraged to run.
The coaches have not only changed the offensive game plan but have made DRob hesitant when he does run. Result = Not Good.
|5 years 15 weeks ago||Turnovers||
Michigan is just not good enough to turn the ball over and win against very many even average Big10 teams. The turnovers killed us.
|5 years 16 weeks ago||Expected Points||
When I included expected points (EP) in the analysis this year, I did not realize all of the insight this would bring.
By splitting up the EP lost (due to the loss of a possession) and the EP gained (due only to the difference in field position since the opposing team was going to get another possession anyway), you can see the impact.
M had a 1-10 on the Purdue 39 and lost 3.1 EP
When Purdue intercepted the ball at their own 5 this was worse field postion than would have been expected. Therefore, Purdue actually LOST 0.8 EP becasue of this field position. Usually the opposing team gains EP due to better field position.
The net loss for M was 2.3 EP because no one knew a safety would occur.
You are absolutely correct that the defense immediately reagained 2 points.
|5 years 16 weeks ago||Stop It!||
In the first quarter my nephew (who is way under 30 years old) looked at me as the Rawk Musik roared and said, "God forbid there be even a few seconds of peace and quiet in the stadium."
And, that's the problem. At appropriate spots does the occasional piped in music get the crowd going. Yup, it does. And that would be good. But, the incessant noise is just that -- incessant noise.
I'll bet SpecialK was (is) totally pissed that the band and the student section go crazy between the 3rd & 4th quarters with the Blues Brothers for so long that there is hardly any time for the incessant noise.
|5 years 17 weeks ago||Record||
If RR had even gone 6-6 that first season and kept the bowl streak alive, things would have been much different. After 3-9, only a miracle was going to save him (and by miracle I mean winning seasons and beating MSU and osu).
In the end, winning is all that matters. If Hoke does not put up the numbers he will not last very long either.
|5 years 17 weeks ago||It'll Be Nice||
It will be great for all the blue hairs! They won't have to put up with all the rabble -- their incessant cheering, jumping up on an exciting play, etc.
It will be nice and quiet with all the venues only half full -- also a lot roomier.
|5 years 17 weeks ago||The math doesn't work!||
Let's do the math.
6,000 less season tickets (8 games) at 55 per game is 2 MILLION 640 thousand dollars!!
Penn State is now at an unbelievable 94.63 percent of capacity. (M is still at 101.45 %). PSU capacity is over 106,000 so they are running over 6,000 seats less per game.
It would take 26,400 season pass holders in the end zone paying $100 per seat just to break even. Not sure there are that many seats in the end zone.
So, dropping the seat tax for end zone seats would actually make money.
And, fill the stadium!!
|5 years 17 weeks ago||Yeah||
That was kind of ironic wasn't it?
|5 years 17 weeks ago||Loyd Carr||
I seem to remember a game in 2004 that a team was down by 17 with 8:23 left in the fourth and started calling timeouts early. That worked out pretty well. I have no idea what Kelly (and osu Fickell) were doing.
|5 years 17 weeks ago||USC QB Barkley has joined the||
USC QB Barkley has joined the chorus. But, he was kinder and gentler:
“I would agree with that,” Barkley told ESPN 710 in Los Angeles. “I was shocked that they didn’t use the [fourth-quarter] timeouts because we got on the field with . . . about seven minutes left, and I thought they were planning on stopping us and saving their timeouts for the end when they had the ball.”
Barkley later added: “It seemed from our sideline and our perspective that they did give up. It seemed uncharacteristic of Notre Dame. I wouldn’t have wanted to have been on that sideline.”
|5 years 17 weeks ago||Exactly!||
Yes, and as we all know, they were way too correct in that analysis [that DRob needed as many reps as possible].
|5 years 17 weeks ago||Rich Rod||
I was discussing the "start" Gardner meme with a friend and simply asked him, "Who recruited Devin?"
He said, "I don't know" At this point I knew I was talking to an imbecile but I pressed on.
"Well, it was Rich Rodriguez. And if you think RR recruited a pro-style QB you are insane."
Case closed. My "friend" still was like, "huh?"
|5 years 17 weeks ago||Absolutely!!||
The snap is considered a backward pass and not a fumble. If it was to be re-defined, then all the rules pertaining to a fumble (e.g. fumble cannot be advanced on 4th down by anyone other than the fumbler, etc.) would apply and this would be far worse than the one bizarre circumstance sited.
|5 years 17 weeks ago||Bama Game||
It's all about maximizing profits baby! Hmmmmm, that would be a good tag line for Brandon.
"Just Maximize Profits, Baby!"
|5 years 17 weeks ago||Enquiring Minds||
I just want to know why he hates beards?
|5 years 17 weeks ago||Absolutely!!||
Well, Hoke and the team believe it is!
I have to admit I was shocked when M players were openly stating that MSU was the tougher team. Then Hoke said the same thing.
That was no accident. Hoke believes the team is not tough enough and IMHO he told the seniors and leaders to make these statements to motivate the rest of the guys.
When Hoke and the players talk about "playing Michigan football" they are not talking about merely winning the game -- they are talking about being the tougher team.
Hoke has also stated that a main reason he does not like the spread is because it does not allow the D to practice against tough offenses.
I can imagine the practices for this week and next are pretty intense (and will continue to be).
|5 years 17 weeks ago||Kudos||
Kudos to John Bacon. I can't tell you how disgusted I am at the vast majority of journalists, coaches, politicians, and private industry managers that are willing to sell their souls and discard any integrity to merely please the masses and keep their jobs.
I never had a job that was so important to me that I would abandon all my principles just to keep that job. Unfortunately, almost everyone on this planet seems to be willing to do just that.
Congratulations to John Bacon for getting it right without regard to the personal consequences.
The world would be a lot better place with more people like him.
|5 years 18 weeks ago||Advanced Football Stats||
Raw statistics for football are relatively meaningless -- especially before teams have played almost their entire schedule. The strength of opponents is so different that without adjustments, the data is almost always misleading.
In fact, if FEI, S&P and other adjusted data resulted in similar rankings for offense, defense, overall, etc. there would be no reason to adjust the data in the first place.
So, it is a bit ironic that a complaint of adjusted college statistics is that they are not the same as the unadjusted data.
|5 years 18 weeks ago||Strength of Opponent Defense||
I looked at the FEI ranking for offense and it appears that an explanation for the low ranking of some teams is the relative strength of the defenses they have faced FEI's OSOS(A).
|5 years 18 weeks ago||Garbage Time||
I guess that depends if you think "blowouts" are a true indication of a team's ability. Since FEI & S&P do not associate with the BCS, the only reason to eliminate garbage time is to get a "more accurate" measure.
Both the metrics are based on either a per-drive or per-play calculation. So, the elimination of garbage time is probably not that significant.
Once a game gets into garbage time, I believe that none of the data (O or D) is included at all.
So, what is garbage time? I'm not sure about FEI but here is S&Ps:
"The criteria for being "close" are as follows: a game within 24 points in the first quarter, with 21 points in the second quarter, and within 16 points in the second half."
FEI may be different.
That said, I believe the criteria works backwards from the end of the game. So, if the game ends within 15 points but one team had a 20 point lead at some point, all the data is included.
But, if the game ends with a team leading by even 17 points, and the game was never closer than 17 points in the second half, all second half data would be excluded.
|5 years 18 weeks ago||Woolfolk||
From our first KO of the first game (WMU) I said, "Why in the hell is Woolfolk out there?" He has been hurt twice during KO coverage.
With our situation at DB what were the coaches thinking??
And, they put him back out there after his first injury.
It would be nice to have him healthy.
|5 years 18 weeks ago||Past vs. Future||
Took a look at more FEI stuff and found the offenses we face in the future are currently rated worse than the offenses we have faced in the past. That should be good news.
Defensive SOS to date for M: = #33
Defensive SOS for remaining games: = #89
That is based on adjusted data. Here are the current FEI offense rankings
ND(6),MSU(37,NW(42),WMU(48),SDSU(94),EMU(97),Minn(104)which is an average ranking of 61
NEB(20),Iowa(53),Ill(73),osu(76),Purdue(99) which is an average ranking of 64
|5 years 18 weeks ago||The God's Must Be Crazy||
Uh, ND is ranked #22 in Total Offense by NCAA and ranked #52 in Total D.
What was your basis?
|5 years 18 weeks ago||FEI and S&P||
FEI is a drive based metric. S&P is a play based metric.
Here is FEI: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef2011
Here is S&P: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaadef2011
The opponent adjustments are fairly complex and are (by definition) subjective.
S&P currently ranks M's defense as #39.
Since the basic data is the same, this is primarily due to opponent adjustments. Here are 2 more references at Football Outsiders with lots of gory details.
|5 years 18 weeks ago||A Word Of Caution||
Last year after 7 games the M defense was ranked #83 by FEI and then, well, you know.
We still don't really know how good this defense is. The next 5 games can go either way. I am still very very nervious.
|5 years 18 weeks ago||Totally Wrong!||
Yes, I do believe Brian can pick up on things the coaches do not.
I've worked for several companies as an employee and as a consultant. There are dozens of cases where I saw problems that had existed for literally YEARS that none of the "experts" were aware of. In one case, it literally took me 3 months to get the experts to acknowledge the problem and fix it.
Don't be naive -- the "experts" are often wrong and can't see the forest for the trees.
|5 years 18 weeks ago||Absolutely Agree!||
Yes, IMHO turnovers are a sympton and NOT a cause. Good defenses create more turnovers -- turnovers do not create good defense.
I believe we are getting more TOs because the defense has improved significantly.
And, luck has virtually nothing to do with TOs.
|5 years 19 weeks ago||WMU||
I included the WMU game. Using expected points, the 3 TOs were worth 22 EP. The reason this is so high is because of the 2 TOs that Michigan returned for TDs.
Michigan did win by 24 points (34-10) so based on a purely mathematical calculation, you could conclude that TOs were not a determining factor. However, evaluating TOs is certainly not an exact science and I concluded that without the TOs the game would have been too close to call. Thus, I put the WMU game in the category of TOs being a significant factor in the win.
|5 years 19 weeks ago||Yes, But Sort Of||
The scoop and score by Avery in the Minnesota game was off a botched handoff -- therefore, no force on the fumble.
Also, if there is a bunch of folks tackling the player, often no one is given credit for the force on the fumble.
And, I believe it is sometimes just a judgement call. So, if a tackle is made by one player and a fumble occurs, you would think this would be credited as a forced fumble -- but it sometimes is not.
|5 years 19 weeks ago||Yes, It's That Learning Curve||
Yes, this is similar to what I was saying. Denard had a year to get comfortable with the previous scheme (that may have also been simplier) and is now trying to get up to speed on a new scheme (that may be more complicated).
End result is that the learning curve for this year is not as steep and the turnovers will be with us for a while.
|5 years 20 weeks ago||Correct!||
Yes, and it turns out that fumble recoveries average about 50%. However, the type of fumble does matter. Fumbles in your own backfield are recovered at a higher rate than fumbles downfield.
|5 years 20 weeks ago||Me Too||
Until 3 years ago, I would watch as the games and season unfolded with a quiet confidence that M would always win it in the end. Because they almost always did.
The last 3 years have shaken my confidence and I still sit here wondering what the next weeks will bring.
All of the players are saying it over and over again. "We've been 4-0 before and it doesn't mean anything. We have to play a lot better."
|5 years 22 weeks ago||Still Nervous||
Last year M after 3 games:
M had lost 2 TO (1 interception and 1 fumble)
M had gained 6 TOs (4 interceptions and 2 fumbles)
Net TOM was +4
Interestingly, we were +3 in TOM against ND last year.
M had a + turnorver margin for the first 2 games of 2010. For the remainer of the season, 6 games with a -0- turnover margin, and 4 games with negative TOM (MSU, Iowa, Illini, osu), and ended the year with a TOM of -9.
Good news, we have had 3 straight games with a + TOM this year. I am still nervous (the last 3 years have messed with my confidence).
|5 years 22 weeks ago||Expected Points||
I've included a summary chart in this week's diary on Turnovers.
The chart is in 10 yard increments, the expected points between the increments is linear so I didn't put in the entire chart.
Here is a similar chart from the folks at Football Outsiders (note it is in the opposite order of yard line).
|5 years 23 weeks ago||Those TV Ads||
There are several ads on TV where the woman looks at the man and says something like, "Brittany told me her boyfriend says Sundays are only for watching football. What do you think?
In this case (I think it is a MacDonalds ad), the guy says, "Her boyfriend is a jerk".
That guy is sensitive. My reply would have been, "Her boyfriend is Absolutely F'ing Lutley Right!"
There's also a bunch of Bud Lite "Real Men of Genius" ads where the guys are "sensitive".
|5 years 23 weeks ago||Don't Try That||
I have to love classical music. So, if I stand up at the end of the symphony, start yelling and give high fives to everyone in sight, everyone will understand?
I don't do that because the feeling after a beautiful symphony is completely different. Fabulous but completely different.
|5 years 23 weeks ago||NSFMF||
A typical TO results in a change of possession with no points being scored. The ultimate point result of the TO is impossible to determine in those instances but the average of "5 points per TO" is based on some TOs resulting in 0 points and others resulting in 3 points (FG) or 6/7 points (TD).
In this case, both TOs immediately resulted in 7 points and at least one took 3-7 points off the board.
|5 years 23 weeks ago||Yes, This Is DUMB!||
Here is the link to the NCAA Conference Stats for the Big10.
Michigan is not even listed as being in the conference! I am assuming this is because we have not played an "official" game.
This would seem to screw up all the stats for the entire year. Total yards, completions, TOs, etc. etc. etc.
This is intolerable.
|5 years 23 weeks ago||The Big MO||
I know it is impossible to measure momentum or change in the big MO. But, the score was 7-7 with WMU on about the 10 yard line ready to score. The M defense was on its heals. Without the interception, the score could have been 14-7 WMU with M receiving the KO. And all the MO with WMU. With the TO, the MO shifted dramatically.
The second TO was with the score just 20-10. After the fumble return for a TD, the game was essentially over.
|5 years 24 weeks ago||Better Not Be Close||
If we do not score early and often, I will be concerned. You only get one chance to make a first impression!
|5 years 34 weeks ago||Obviously Just Plain Wrong||
Phil Steele is absolutely wrong about the M record this year. He is also dead wrong in his analysis of turnovers (but that is another matter to be dealt with later this summer).
Obviously this was "predicted" before all the osu fiasco and Pryor leaving.
Even in a transition year, there are really only 6 possible losses on the schedule. IMHO even 9-3 with losses to MSU, Nebraska, and osu would be a horrible season.
|5 years 37 weeks ago||Just Get Over It!||
I am really tired of all the BS about "college athletes" not getting paid based on what they "return" to the U. Are you kidding me? What Universe all you from. NO ONE gets paid based on their return to the almighty CORP!
If a free $100,000 education isn't enough for you JOCKs, then boo, hoo, hoo.
Perhaps you need to join the real world!
|5 years 39 weeks ago||Cuppy Cuppy Cakes||
The only thing worse than the current football schedules are the current basketball schedules!
B'Ball has sunk to believing that making a tournament with 65, 66, 67, or whatever the number is now other teams and then losing in the first round is more important than playing the other teams in your conference twice (I'm talkin about you BIG10!).
Mark my key strokes -- futbol will just get worse in scheduling cuppy, cuppy, cakes!
|5 years 40 weeks ago||The Problem Is||
When (if?) BH wins his first 5 games, a lot of folks will be slobbering all over themselves - forgettting that RR did the very same thing two years in a row.
Me? Well, this may sound harsh, but even 9-3 with losses to MSU, OSU, and UN (Nebraska) would be a disappointing year.
|6 years 1 week ago||DEAR GOD!||
"I want to sell out Crisler," he said. "That's a personal agenda. I've got to get to the bottom of why that doesn't happen. I want to get into the data on why people don't come to the games."
OMG, maybe he should look at the W/L record. The B'Ball team has only made the NCAA tournament once in about a zillion years. Could that possibly be a reason Crisler is not sold out?!
If this is an example of this guys expertise, we are doomed (I tell ya, doomed).
|6 years 1 week ago||Cheating Works!||
The SEC is well aware that a great deal of their success is due to oversigning. Don't expect them to give that up willingly.
|6 years 5 weeks ago||RR||
RR overall record: 120-84-2
|6 years 5 weeks ago||Don't Let The WLA Know||
Whoa, so we're all REBELLIOUS!
I love it and plead guilty as charged.
|6 years 7 weeks ago||I'm Done||
Anywhere - the last 4 games the team has gone in the WRONG direction - dramatically!
|6 years 7 weeks ago||Ready To Go!||
All the Michigan duds are in full dress (including the bright Maize pants) and we're headed to a friends house to watch all the games.
The DVR is set so I can enjoy the Meeeeechigan Victory all over again.
|6 years 7 weeks ago||I'll Take It||
I'll take the Illinois game WITHOUT the 4 turnovers -- which would make it Michigan 53, MSU 37 in regulation!!
|6 years 7 weeks ago||Swing is 4 Points||
Sorry for the confusion (I have edited the OP to reflect the following).
The 4 points per TO is actually the "swing" in points. And, you are correct that the proper way to look at this is that the team commiting the giveaway ends the game with 2 points less than they would have (w/o any TOs). The team getting the takeaway ends the game with 2 points more than they would have (w/o any TOs).
It is based on expected points (EP) that the Mathlete http://mgoblog.com/diaries/never-punt-denard-fourth-down-strategy-revisited , Football Outsiders, and others use.
If you have the ball on your own 30 yard line the EP = 1.8 points. So, a turnover costs your team 1.8 points.
But, it also gives the ball to the other team on your 30 yard line which is worth 3.8 EP. However, the other team was always going to get another possession no matter what happens (even if you score a TD) so we have to subtract the value the other team would have received if the TO had not occurred. A good approximation is that the other team would have gotten the ball 40 yards further away (based on a net punt of 40 yards). Thus, the other team would have gotten the ball on their own 30 (rather than your 30) and would have had an EP of 1.8 from there. Thus the difference is 3.8-1.8 = 2
These values get rounded to +2 and -2 for a 4 point swing.
For example: Wisconsin 70-23 with +7 TOM. Without any TOs the score would have been Wisconsin 56 (70-14) and Northwestern 37 (23+14).
|6 years 7 weeks ago||Watched the Game||
Stanford's coach said she had watched every single game UConn has played and has been preparing to beat UConn for a very long time.
Stanford was definitely the better team with lots of big bodies.
|6 years 7 weeks ago||Factor In Winning||
I was isolating those turnovers that had a high probability of impacting which team wins the game versus those TOs that probably only made the margin of victory greater.
Wisconsin beat Northwestern 70-23 with a TOM of +7. The TOs were significant to the final score and margin of victory but each TO would have to be worth virtually 7 points to have been a determining factor in the fact that Wisconsin won the game. Even with a TOM of 0, Wisconsin would still have won.
Same with Texas. They lost to Kansas St by 14-39 with a TOM of -5. Each TO would need to be worth over 6 points to have an impact of Texas losing the game. In all likelihood, the TOs just meant Texas lost by a larger margin. Even with a TOM of 0, Texas would still have lost.
So, I was using the term significant only in the context of impacting which team wins.
|6 years 7 weeks ago||Halftime||
He said it during halftime of the bowl games yesterday.
But, here's some more info.
|6 years 7 weeks ago||If It Looks Like A Rat and Smells Like A Rat||
It is now being reported (Mark May, ESPN) that this info has been known for over a year. Just a coincidence that the "punishment" comes down to be osu's 5 least important games.
If it looks like a rat and smells like a rat and scurrries like a rat -- it's a rat!
|6 years 8 weeks ago||Of Course They Knew!||
The most ludicrous statements I have heard, "they were only selling their own stuff".
Jeez, then what would prevent any college athlete from signing a bunch of white T-shirts (say 100) and having a booster pay $1,000 each for a cool $100,000.
Of course they knew and of course it has to be against the rules!
|6 years 8 weeks ago||Merry Christmas -- Ho, Ho, Ho||
Happy Holidays and don't call me a ho!
|6 years 8 weeks ago||Yup||
Abso-F'in-Lutely. The only exception would be if every year kept getting worse and worse (which it hasn't).
|6 years 9 weeks ago||Really?||
Uh, have you been under a rock? If Brandon had already announced RR is staying then all we would be hearing every day is a furor over why/why not this is a good/bad thing.
By waiting until Jan 1, M avoids a lot of that useless media/blog chatter as we lead up to the bowl game.
|6 years 9 weeks ago||Oversigning||
This is bullshit. Instead of worrying about how many minutes a player spends stretching, the NCAA should immediately fix the oversigning. Oversigning directly hurts individual student-athletes.
What a crock!
|6 years 9 weeks ago||Deja Vu All Over Again||
The bowl game looks like so many games this year -- M should win if we just play an average game (which means a TO margin of -0- or better and breaking even with MSU on those unforced errors).
|6 years 10 weeks ago||Not Great||
FEI got 7 games correct, 4 incorrect (FEI does not do FCS games - UMass).
But, of those 7, 3 were fairly easy to predict: BGSU, Wsky, osu.
So, 3 correct and 4 incorrect for the closer games.
The 4 incorrect games for FEI was ND over M, M over MSU, M over PSU, Ill over M.
|6 years 10 weeks ago||BTN||
The picture in HD on BTN is fantastic!
Not sure why they do not have the field mics on the broadcast. It is probably a lot louder than it sounds on the TV machine.
|6 years 10 weeks ago||Unbelievable!||
Wow, the good weather means there really are 110,000 + at the game.
It might be almost as warm outside today as it is @ Yost!
|6 years 11 weeks ago||I Agree||
I absolutely agree that TOs benefit the team that gets them. It would be silly to think otherwise.
But, the real queston: "Did the TOs help you win the game?" It is obvious that TOs do NOT impact the final result of many games.
When I looked at TOs in 2009, there were wild swings in TOM for many teams with no corresponding change in win/loss record.
One of my favorites was Florida: 2002 TOM -9 & 8-5 record, 2003 TOM +7 and the same 8-5 record. This is a swing of 16 TOs with no difference in record!
Or Florida in 2005 TOM +18 & 9-3 record, 2006 TOM +5 & 13-1 record. A swing of 13 TOs less and 4 more wins!
To me this screams that Situational Analysis on a Game by Game basis is the only sane way to draw conclusions about TOs.
|6 years 11 weeks ago||Really?||
Well, let's take a look at osu. Do you really think they won 11 games because of their TOM? They only had 3 close games (Miami, Illinois, Iowa). In the Miami game they were +3, Illinois was -1, and Iowa was -1. In the loss to Wisc, they were -0-. Most of osu's large TOM came in blowout games and the TOs had nothing to do with the wins. Marshall +3, Ohio +3, Minn +2, U-M +2
For Wisconsin, they were +6 in the NW game that was a 70-23 blowout, +3 in the Indiana blowout, +3 in the Purdue blowout.
For these two teams, TOM had NOTHING at all to do with them winning games.
|6 years 11 weeks ago||How Can This Be?||
But, Harbaugh is a "Michigan Man". How can this be?
|6 years 11 weeks ago||Yup||
Most of the talking heads are saying there will be few (if any) HC changes until the NFL reaches agreement.
This is one reason, the interim coaches are being talked up as probable to get the job (at least for next year).
|6 years 11 weeks ago||Would Harbaugh Rule Out the NFL?||
So, would Harbaugh rule out ever going to the NFL as a requirement to take the job @ M?
Or, if successful, will he jump to the NFL in a few (5 or so) years?
|6 years 11 weeks ago||Well, Not Really||
You are right that the estimate of points left on the field is subjective.
But, I did NOT assume every drive with an unforced error would result in points. If the receiver was wide open with a clear path to the end zone, I estimated 7 points. If the result would have been first and goal, I also estimated 7 points. If the unforced error would have just resulted in a first down, I basically estimated -0- points.
With 18 unforced errors in the osu game, I only came up with 17 points left on the field.
|6 years 11 weeks ago||Wait A Year||
You are right. But, if RR is fired after this year, the fanbase will be spilt even more.
There will be those that are upset that any coach at M was only given 3 years and was villanized from day 1. There will be some that will villanize the new coach (yes, even Harbaugh -- remember his negative statements about U-M?).
Wait one more year, if RR wins then even the A-holes will support him.
If RR doesn't win, then everyone (well, almost) will support the change.
|6 years 11 weeks ago||Ho, Hum||
I haven't been this disappointed since I looked in the cupboard this morning to find my Cheerios box was empty.
|6 years 12 weeks ago||No Data?||
This data is not readily available (as far as I know). Some would be possible to get (e.g. on-side kick data by reviewing the play-by-play) others would require reviewing the DVR/tape of each game.
Another problem is there is some subjectivity involved. I did not include tipped passes or a poor pass that was obviously caused by a good defensive play. But, that was based on just my judgment.
|6 years 12 weeks ago||Too Painful||
This would be too painful unless there is a masochistic tendency.
The only way to do this is: watch every game and document each unforced error. And relive the past several seasons.
|6 years 12 weeks ago||Offensive Unforced Errors||
I decided to chart unforced errors by the offense as well as TOs. In the Wisconsin game, there were 8 unforced errors that cost us 21-35 points. If the offense can just eliminate the unforced errors, this should be a enough for the win. (BTW, Wisconsin made NO unforced errors.)
Chart of the unforced errors here:
|6 years 13 weeks ago||Offensive Unforced Errors||
The offense has been very good. But, it is unforced errors (overthrown wide open receivers, dropped passes, etc.) that have prevented it from being off the charts.
The unforced errors are far worse than the TOs as far as points left off the board.
If the offense just gets rid of the unforced errors and does not stop themselves, a win is assured against osu -- regardless of what the defense does.
|6 years 13 weeks ago||Football Related?||
I watched Rob Lytle play and he was truly great. This is very sad.
He had a stroke "a while back" and died of a heart attack. Wonder if it was football related?
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Defense Was Better||
Really? It means nothing? The D only allowing 9 points and no TDs?
Don't recall anyone predicting that.
An FCS team scored 37 and BGSU scored 21.
With Martin in the games.
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Not So Much||
Possessions per game WERE pretty much average until the last 2 games. Then with 19 in the Illinois game (16 w/o OT) and 16 against Purdue, they increased considerably.
I've been playing with the idea of adjusting possessions for TOs. Each TO in essence creates an extra possession.
|6 years 14 weeks ago||So||
The weather was a factor but it is hard for me to believe any coach (especially RR) would be comfortable with less than a two score lead precisely because of the conditions. One turnover deep in your own territory and, poof, there goes the lead and potentially the game.
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Yes We Do||
No turnovers by us and at least one by them combined with the return of Denardin' and the best game by the D all year = Victory!
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Excellent||
But, I was nervous until we went up by 2 scores late in the game. In those conditions, disaster could strike at any moment.
|6 years 14 weeks ago||OT Stats||
I would adjust for the OT against Illini. That was actually one of the Ds better games if you look at per possession stats.
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Mostly Interceptions||
I have not compiled any stats. But, if you look at just about any QB the number of interceptions goes down significantly as each year of experience increases.
Jimmay Clausen had 17 ints his sophomore year and only 4 his junior year.
Kellen Moore had 10 ints in 2008, 3 in 2009, and has 4 so far this year.
Ricky Stanzi had 9 ints in 2008, 15 in 2009, and has 4 this year. So, he is an exception with more ints his second year than his first.
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Georgia||
The "winner" is Georgia just last year with a TOM of -16 and a WLM of +3 (8-5).
In 2008, Nebraska had a TOM of -11 and a WLM of +5
In 2007, it was Rutgers with a TOM of -6 and a WLM of +3
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Yup||
Sagarin has Wsky SoS at #83.
SJ State (1-9)
Austin Peay (2-8 FCS)
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Upset Due!||
Yup, M has not had an upset win for RRs entire tenure (the 2008 win against Wsky was when Wsky went 7-6 -- not a very good team that year).
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Con Artist?||
Newton just seems like a con artist to me. Smiling, acting like nothing is happening. Refusing to comment. Things like "I won't comment on something that may have happened almost 2 years ago."
Really, you cheated, stole a laptop and because it was 2 years ago, all is forgiven and any discussion is off limits?
Does the NCAA and the Heisman folks really want to vacate another MNC and Heisman trophy in a couple of years when the investigation is concluded?
My guess is that they are all hoping Auburn will get beaten and Newton has a bad game and they don't have to make the choice.
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Randy Moss||
And folks can't figure out why Randy Moss tells the press to FO?
I have not heard a resonable quesion from anyone in the media for, oh, uh, hmmmm, ........
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Why Not?||
Yes, the F bomb was loud and frequent at our house.
But, M is now 7-3 which is fantastic. Those complaining are true asshats.
Remember, the last 2 years, M figured out how to lose to Purdue (hook and ladders and on-side kicks, et. al.).
|6 years 14 weeks ago||F Factor||
Man, why do we keep doing this? The F factor was very high and very loud (again) for this game.
I always take a win.
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Well, Of Course!||
What recruit wouldn't fall in love with LA? Beautiful babes in bikinis, ocean, fantastic weather, and you know USC will be back to prominence.
They have just about every advantage you could hope for.
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Fremeau Efficiency Index||
FEI has the game at M42- P20 with an 89.7% predicted win expectation.
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Huh?||
So, only money motivates? Not the motivation to sign recruits to make your program better!
F my program unless I get paid.
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Oops||
I was trying to figure out how Doc S knew about the M/MSU store in Flint.
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Commissions||
Paying people on commission is not "illegal" but it does encourage high pressure sales and "questionable" techniques.
Recruiter to Booster: "we can get this recruit, but he needs some encouragement, if you know what I mean"
Booster: "yes, I do"
Recruit signs and assistant coach gets big bonus!
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Goddess Help Us All||
Uh, I use a template (as I am sure Brian does also). I may slip up now and again, but every acronym is (should) be defined in the first sentence in which it is used.
I thought about just showing the current week's data but that elimates the possiblilty to compare previous weeks and would actually be more work (for me). I figured folks could just skip to the yellow highlighted data to get the current week's info.
|6 years 14 weeks ago||OBE||
Overcome By Events.
I did a diary about national rankings and Win/Loss Margin (WLM) before the season. Then I thought, "hey, I should track this throughout the year". Next came a couple of tables. After that some graphs to summarize the tables and, YIKES, here we are.
|6 years 14 weeks ago||Well, Yeah!||
Any poll that ranks osu that low is OK with me!
Interesting to see M at 29. Most other polls have us around #40 with a couple of exceptions.
|6 years 15 weeks ago||TOs||
With the 5 TOs (and only one takeaway), there is no way this game should have been tied at the end of regulation. The D had to do some things well.
Points per possession in regulation were 2.6 which is the lowest in Big10 play.
(Uh, this does not mean GERG should stay -- unless the D pulls a miraculous 180 in the last 4 games [including the bowl game].)
|6 years 15 weeks ago||Are You Insane!!||
500 Yards and 45 Points! Before OT!
And someone thinks the D doesn't suck?
Where can I get some of those herbs???
|6 years 15 weeks ago||NFW||
NFW, NFW, NFW!!!
|6 years 15 weeks ago||Har Who?||
Yeah, Har Who is a TRUE Michigan man -- trash your school just because you can!
|6 years 15 weeks ago||Give Me A Break (and grow up)||
Let's see. 1 person out of 100,000.
That would be like .001 %
Do you know how many fracking idiots still think Iraq had something to do with 9/11?
|6 years 15 weeks ago||Say What?||
Just showed this to "Amber" and she laughed at the "serious" part.
Run Chip (the nephew)
Run fort your life
Run, for the love of goddess, RUN!
|6 years 15 weeks ago||Perfect 10||
I hate to admit it but my nephew has a serious(?) girlfriend who is a osu (yeah, I know -- but he lives in Findlay, OH and there aren't a lot of non-osu womens down there) that was seriously offended by the half-time show.
It was the best EVAH!
|6 years 15 weeks ago||Fuck You Freep||
FUC K YOU
FUC K YOU
FUCK YOU freep
|6 years 15 weeks ago||All Too Common||
The freep is just mimicking what media of all types has now become. Tell outright lies over and over and when you get caught just ignore that they were lies.
And, then, repeat.
The amazing part is that a huge number of people are complete fracking idiots and believe the lies -- even after being provided with evidence that they are lies.
Woooo, hooooo -- we a de-volving!
|6 years 15 weeks ago||Temperature?||
What's the over/under on temperature? In the stadium and under my collar!
Stadium = 43
Under the Collar = 212
|6 years 15 weeks ago||BCS SUCKS!||
JHC, still another reason I HATE everything about the BCS.
This is absurd and obscene.
|6 years 15 weeks ago||Don't||
I told you not to tell me that the defense is horrible!
|6 years 16 weeks ago||Thanks||
It has been corrected -- I are an engineer.
|6 years 16 weeks ago||Me||
And several hundred thousand others!
|6 years 16 weeks ago||Check The Stock||
Yeah, DB is a real smart guy. He left Domino's at almost it's lowest stock price ever.
The stock has doubled since he left during a recession!