901 Dewey Supreme aka Mr. Pizza Marauder

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2 years 51 weeks ago	Are opponents' point distributions independent?	Disclaimer: I'm not a statistician by any stretch. I get a nervous twitch every time I think about SPSS... But...how can one team change its style of play without changing its opponents expected outcome? As Brian says, "maybe they get blown out more often," this implies that the favorite's expectation and variance have been affected by its opponent's strategy; hence, their expectations are not independent of one another. So, that means that while the underdog has changed its probability distribution for points scored, it has also changed its opponent's. Taking risk-loving chances (trading a lower expected result for greater possible reward) necessarily favors the opponent on average, and will give it greater opportunity to score points. For example, going for it on 4th down in questionable situations rather than punting leads to, on average, better starting field position for the opponent, resulting in more points. Am I on to something here or did I write my first mgoblog post only to sound like an idiot? (or both?)