chance of bowl: 13.6%
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Stumbled on this thread during a search for 'possessions resulting in points.' This accomplishes almost the same thing. The chief benefit in this is to give some means of comparing offensive effectiveness between teams with dissimilar philosophies: for example a team like Oregon who relies on offense to win games, vs a team like mine that relies on defense and special teams to set the offense up with the short field and control the clock.
You should start a website on this alone, and in time the stats you calculate will be adopted by more and more media outlets.
You are correct in that the NCAA scoring offense stats include defensive and special teams scoring.