rich rodriguez

Walkons? Walkons.The always-awesome Jim Stefani has sleuthed out a number of preferred walkons for Michigan's class of 2009, and he has anointed New York Offensive lineman Tom Lindley the catch of the bunch. Lindley may have been deserving of a full ride elsewhere:

“Though he would have merited a ride somewhere else, lineman Tom Lindley of William Floyd will attend Michigan as a preferred walk-on next fall and try to earn a scholarship down the road.”

but will join Michigan's football team with the benefit of academic scholarship money, and will try to play for a scholarship in the future. Lindley was unranked by Rivals and Scout, while ESPN named him the nation's #131 offensive guard prospect and gave him a grade of 74.

Rodriguez, a former walkon himself (as I'm sure most Michigan fans are already well aware) has long championed having a robust walkon program at Michigan (again, most Michigan fans already know this). Lindley and AA Pioneer's Nader Furrha are the notable walkons for 2009, and the program will undoubtedly continue to grow in the future. As I've said before on Varsity Blue, I would love it if Michigan's program became renowned like that of Nebraska pre-Callahan, and prospect were turning down offers from the likes of Michigan State to try their hand in Ann Arbor.

Because mock press conferences haven't gotten old yet, I say! Presented without further comment:

Numbers. An unnecessarily high amount of fan attention and angst seems to go into which numbers the incoming freshman will sport in the fall. In MGoBlue's Wolverine Welcome series, the already-enrolled freshmen give a little insight as to (a phrase which here means "reveal") which numbers they'll sport come September.
Will Campbell - #73.
Vladimir Emilien - #5.
Tate Forcier - #5.
Mike Jones (obligatory "WHO?") - #27.
Brandin Hawthorne - #7.
Anthony Lalota - #90.
Vincent Smith - Hasn't been Wolverine Welcomed yet. Informative update when the information is available.

Basket-ed Ball. The Wolverines travel to Evanston on Sunday to take on Northwestern. The Wildcats may be a bit vulnerable, as they chocked away their tournament dreams, for all reasonable scenarios, with their EPIC FAIL against Illinois last night. They led by 14 in the second half, and by 6 with under a minute to go(!) before falling to the Illini. A Michigan win would go a long way towards ramping up toward a tournament push.

SMQ on M. Rivals' Dr. Saturday takes on the Michigan issue. Synopsis: Expect better next year, but certainly not a Flowers for Algernon-like leap.

The author's work can usually be found on his site, Varsity Blue.

Hooray another one of these!

Having some video issues at the moment; a couple are up and seven more are coming; will get them up ASAP.

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Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	1
Okay, Michigan State's crappy cornerbacks are going to press our crappy receivers all day and not get hurt by it, which will be a major factor in the bubble screen's ineffectiveness. Anyway, on this play State is slanting right to the direction of the play, robbing Schilling of any angle to block a DT lined up inside of him. Also, MSU appears to be timing the snap, as will become relevant later. The DT beats Schilling to the spot and Minor is tackled at the LOS.
M26	2	9	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Cross	Rogers	Inc
I think this might be an attempted pick play? Minor sort of runs at the DB, but he might be stumbling, as Rogers comes across. Threet stares it down, drawing coverage, and throws it to Rogers a yard downfield; ball is dropped. Ortmann(-2) totally smoked by a blindside rusher, BTW, though it turned out to not be relevant. (CA, 3, protection 0/2, Ortmann -2)
M26	3	9	Shotgun 2-back	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Sack	--	-7
First of many incidents where MSU is offsides; this one goes uncalled as it's a bang-bang thing. The offsides guy sacks Threet. Schilling at fault, I guess, but it's hard when the other guy has a head start. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, Schilling -2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-7, 11 min 1st Q.
M12	1	10	Ace	Base 4-3	Run	Dive	Minor	3
Gap-blocked with a pulling lineman(!). Good call on this that immediately creases the DTs wide and provides blockers for all three linebackers; Molk(-2) is beaten badly by the MLB and Minor goes down after only a few.
M15	2	7	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	0
One LB flared out very, very wide a la Illinois; he pushes his guy to about the LOS and forces Odoms inside, where a linebacker takes care of him. 1) Odoms should have shot outside of Koger, where there was more room. 2) Michigan has to come up with a counterpunch to this. (CA, 3, screen)
M15	3	7	Shotgun empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Mathews	14
Another instance where the DE is offsides; no call. Threet drops back as State shoots upfield; he finds a gap in the pocket and moves up through the pass rush, rolling out and finding Mathews for a first down. Good play from him. (DO, 3, protection 1/2, team -1)
M29	1	10	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Run	QB off tackle	Threet	7
Basically the same play that was in picture pages last week only with a lead blocker. Key to the play is Moosman(+1) getting playside of the backside DE, providing Threet a cutback lane when the intended hole does not develop.
M36	2	3	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	7
Same setup as the earlier, unsuccessful bubble; this time Odoms takes it outside of the other slot receiver and finds good yardage for a first down. (CA, 3, screen)
M43	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Yakety sax	Minor	-6
Exchange is fumbled.
M37	2	16	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Penalty	Offsides	--	5
State has obviously been jumping the snap; this time Molk lifts his head and waits, drawing a DT offsides.
M42	2	11	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Pass	Wheel	Minor	Inc (Pen +10)
Minor exits the backfield on a wheel route; the LB blasts him before the ball gets back. Looked catchable otherwise. (CA, 0, protection 2/2)
O48	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Triple option pitch	McGuffie	3
State offsides again; no call, again. Michigan goes with the option; Threet pulls it out after sucking the DE inside. Ortmann(-2) took a poor angle downfield, though, and the MLB beats him, prompting Threet to pitch it despite a State LB having decent contain. The corner reads it, coming up to contain and hold down the gain.
O45	2	7	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	McGuffie	6
Successful scoop on the frontside DT gets him sealed and creases the line; McGuffie finds the hole and shoots up into it, approaching first down yardage by the time state's safeties and whatnot converge. McGuffie's hit, and concussed, fumbling.
Drive Notes: Fumble, 0-7, 3 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O18	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	QB off tackle	Threet	-1
Moundros as an H-back. Here Molk most certainly does not get his reach block; he's blown back and the DT gets playside of him, flowing to the hole and tackling.
O19	2	11	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Pass	Rollout wheel	Odoms	Inc
Michigan rolls the pocket and runs the wheel again, but the field is compressed here and there's a safety waiting on it; could be intercepted but is dropped. (BR, 0, protection 1/1)
O19	3	11	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Pass	Wheel	Minor	19
The catch that wasn't. Minor hasn't gotten much separation from the linebacker here; Threet throws it a bit short and to the outside. Minor whips around and catches it, stepping a full yard OOB, but the magic fairy in the review booth gives Michigan a touchdown anyway. I'm filing this incomplete, FWIW. (MA, 1, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown(?), 7-7, 1 min 1st q. Is that the worst touchdown drive in Michigan history there?
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M26	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	0
This one is on Threet, as the play is blocked pretty well up front—McAvoy gets enough of the backside DT and Moosman gets enough of the frontside one for there to be a gap—and Minor is just about to burst into the secondary when the backside DE, who had sold out, tackles from behind. Threet needs to keep on this.
M26	2	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	QB draw	Threet	2
Ugh... this is going to degenerate into more bitching about officiating than I'm comfortable with, but it looks like Molk is held by the DT on this play and thus can't get out to block MSU's WLB—excellent read by him, FWIW—and thus he can flow unimpeded to Threet, tackling near the LOS.
M28	3	8	Shotgun empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Post	Odoms	Inc
Again State jumps right at the snap; this one looks onside. Moosman has something of a tough time with the early-mover, who ends up lunging at Threet just as he throws, knocking this open post route off. (BA, 0, protection 1/2, Moosman -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7, 10 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M10	1	10	Shotgun Big	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	1
Moosman(-1) and McAvoy(-1) both get beat by slanting DTs and Minor has to attempt to shoot outside everyone to pick up yards; this does not so much work. Looks like that Wisconsin game a few years ago where Hart was dancing in the backfield every play.
M11	2	9	Shotgun Big	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	5
This one looks like it's got a chance to break bigger than it actually does as the DT over Molk takes his first step upfield; he ends up sealed out of the play. Moosman has a free release on the MLB, who drives him back, fights to the correct side of the blocker, and forces the hole small enough for the DE to come off his block and tackle.
M16	3	4	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Hitch	Mathews	Inc
State sends six, so the DBs know Michigan has to get rid of it quick, and Threet stares Mathews down from the snap, prompting a CB to jump the route. This is close to a pick-six. (BR, 0, protection N/A)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7, 6 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M5	1	10	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	Minor	3
Could go for a few more, but Molk(-1) loses control of the DT and he tackles a yard downfield or so.
M8	2	7	I-Form	Base 4-3	Pass	Wheel	Moundros	Int
I mean, this is just horrible. Nice pocket, Threet can step up into it, and he throws to a blanketed Mark Moundros on a wheel route. Koger was coming open on the other side of the field, or he could dump it to Minor, or he could... you know, not throw it to a fullback who's really, really covered. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 7-7, 4 min 2nd Q>
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M9	1	10	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	7
State sending linebackers up the middle; a good call for their defense. Two defenders out there on two blockers; Babb(-2) completely whiffs on his guy, forcing Odoms inside and holding the gain down. (CA, 3, screen)
M16	2	3	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read keeper	Threet	2
Threet finally keeps it and should have easy first down yardage but gets a little goofy and starts trying to juke guys instead of burrowing up for the five yards and being happy with it.
M18	3	1	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	6 (Pen -10)
Argh. This goes for a first down but Molk(-600000) holds on a bubble screen, partially because State is again jumping the snap count. (CA, 3, screen)
M8	3	11	Shotgun empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Scramble	Threet	9
Threet gets spooked by an upfield rush that's well beyond him and scrambles out, getting chopped down short of the first. (TA, 0, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-7, 1 min 2nd Q. Dantonio doesn't take TO. WTF?
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M35	1	10	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Seam	Koger	35
Jeepers. Koger just runs straight down the field, is as your wont on a seam, and Threet lays it right in over the LBs and in front of the safeties. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
O30	1	10	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Run	QB draw	Threet	16
Big hole between Ortmann and McAvoy that Three shoots up into; excellent block from Koger(+1) gives him the corner (along with a little shove from Stonum), the first down, and a bit more.
O14	1	10	Shotgun Big	Base 4-3	Pass	Flag	Odoms	Inc (Pen +12)
Odoms' defender never gets his head around and plows Odoms as the ball arrives, drawing PI flags. Ball is thrown too far inside, but catchable if not for the interference. (MA, N/A, protection 2/2)
O2	1	G	Shotgun Big	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	2
Hey, Molk(+1) takes his guy, stands him up, and boots him out of the hole; the other DT gets scooped and that's an easy recipe for a Minor touchdown.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-14, EO1H.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	5
Gap-blocked, pulling Moosman around Molk, and an effective playcall that only gets cut short because the safeties are jumping up immediately; with State in press coverage and the safeties jumping on first and ten runs Michigan needs to loosen them up, although “with who?” is a good question. Anyway, Minor through a hole, good blocking all around, terrific tackle from the MSU safety to stand Minor up and prevent this from being eight or so.
M25	2	5	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	Inc
Threet throws it way short; looked like it would work otherwise. (IN, 0, screen)
M25	3	5	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Pass	Flag	Odoms	Inc
Really looped out there, giving the MSU DB time to close and break it up. Wonder if the elbows have anything to do with this. (MA, 1, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 14-14, 14 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M34	1	10	Shotgun 2-back trips	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	1
Hated formation with a WR covered up. On this play the entire State DL pushes the entire Michigan OL into the backfield; it again looks like they're timing Molk's snaps. As a result, Minor has to cut back behind everyone and does well to get back to the LOS.
M35	2	9	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Pass	Scramble	Threet	6
The zone-read fake where Threet starts shooting backside of the play; Threet doesn't find anyone open but there's no one in his face so he runs a bit. (TA, 0, protection N/A)
M41	3	3	--	--	Penalty	Offsides	--	5
See, they're jumpy.
M46	1	10	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	3
Koger(-1) driven back badly, forcing Odoms inside of him and holding this gain down. (CA, 3, screen)
M49	2	7	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Post	Clemons	29
They finally go to the misdirection, faking a bubble screen and going to Clemons on a post route. This is actually a great play by the outside corner to read the ball and come up to tackle here or this could be a touchdown; the linebacker to that side got sucked up on the bubble and the safety was beaten by a good five yards. More of this. (DO, 2, protection 2/2)
O22	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	20
Quick snap here after the big play—no check with the sidelines. I believe this catches MSU off guard but can't be sure because the quick snap also caught ESPN off guard. When we come back Molk(+1) is crushing an MSU DT to the ground and Minor is about to shoot through the hole provided for major yards.
O2	1	G	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Run	QB off tackle	Threet	2
Wow, you should watch this just to see Brandon Minor unload on the defensive end. He obliterates the guy, leaving Threet one-on-one with a linebacker at the LOS. Threet hesitates, but manages to power through the tackle and into the endzone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-14, 10 min 3rd Q. On the replay, Spielman exclaims DOWN GOES FRAZIER! WOO! In re: the Minor block. He's also slyly gotten in some good analysis.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	1
Great seal here by Molk(+1) and a big gap for Minor; both McAvoy(-1) and Clemons(-1) whiff on LB blocks and those guys get to Minor just as he gets to the gap.
M21	2	9	Shotgun trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	Inc
Michigan catches them in a great call for this as the slot-tasked LB is blitzing; this is a first down easy if Threet doesn't overthrow this by a mile. (IN, 0, screen)
M21	3	9	Shotgun trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Sack	--	-10
Michigan rolls out, and just gets beat by it. It's amazing. Minor gives the DE a good thump but leaves his feet to do it and he stays on his, so Threet's got three guys in his face; he should still get rid of this and save the ten yards. (BR, 0, protection 0/2, team)
Drive Notes: Punt, 21-14, 6 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M19	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Flare screen	Minor	0 (Pen -10)
Well, some problems: 1) Ortmann and McAvoy just run by an MSU linebacker, who shoots in at Minor, 2) Odoms gets beaten by his man, 3) Odoms gets called for holding. Yay. (CA, 3, screen)
M9	1	20	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Pass	Hitch	Stonum	5
A short hitch in front of the DB is well thrown and caught; immediate tackle. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M14	2	15	Shotgun empty	Base 4-3	Penalty	False Start	Koger	-5
I dunno, man, you tell me if you see anyone on Michigan move one inch. Oh, they call it on Koger for leaning forward. Sigh.
M9	2	20	Shotgun empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	QB draw	Threet	9
Threet avoids the linebacker sitting unblocked in the middle by using the umpire as a screen and manages to squeeze forward for a good gain.
M18	3	11	Shotgun trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Penalty	Offsides	--	5
Oops.
M23	3	6	Shotgun 4-wide		Pass	Sack	--	-6
A three-man rush; Ortmann's guy spins inside of him and dives at Threet's feet at the same time Schilling's starts bulling him back; this is more on Ortmann, IMO. (PR, 0, protection 0/3, Ortmann -2, Schilling -1)
Drive Notes: Punt, 21-21, EO3Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M27	1	10	Shotgun trips	Base 4-3	Pass	Bubble screen	Odoms	7
Man, the LB here even takes two steps the wrong way and Clemons(-1) still completely whiffs on his ass. Odoms(+1) makes him miss, but the delay is the difference between seven yards and twelve. (CA, 3, screen)
M34	2	3	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	2
Should be an easy first down as Michigan has hurried the tempo and caught MSU in an awkward position with the only DT to the playside lined up nearly over Molk and a pretty easy seal for him; McAvoy(-1) whiffs on the linebacker, turning this from 20 yards into 2.
M36	3	1	I-form 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	Minor	6
Good block by Moosman holds off that DT just enough and Moundros(+1) blows the linebacker back, providing a good hole for Minor to hit for the first.
M42	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	1
Christ, man, I am beginning to understand why earlier this year they went through four different guys trying to find a left guard. Molk(+1) seals a DT like two plays ago, again gets Minor a good crease, and McAvoy again whiffs on the linebacker.
M43	2	9	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	TE out	Koger	6
Open, as they're trying to play a zone here and the CB has been driven off by a deeper route; Koger brings himself to a halt, though, and tries to cut back against a guy trailing him, which doesn't work out very well If he had just cut it up the sideline this would be another 3-4 yards and something near a first down. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M49	3	3	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Fly	Mathews	Inc
This is the “freeze” play on which an MSU defender is vastly offsides and there is no call. We don't even get a replay; from the stands this was way obvious. Not charting this.
Drive Notes: Anger, Punt, 21-21, 10 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M30	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Wheel	Clemons	Int
Thrown directly at an MSU player and intercepted. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 21-28, 6 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M42	1	10	Shotgun empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Sack	--	-8
A three man rush and the protection's pretty decent, actually, it's just that as Threet steps up into the pocket some guy reaches out and grabs his collar, causing him to fall. (Not a horsecollar tackle since the rules specifically omit QBs in the pocket and RBs between the tackles, FWIW.) Actually, as I watch it again Ortmann(-2) beaten pretty badly. (PR, 0, protection 0/2, Ortmann -2)
M34	2	18	Shotgun empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Deep hitch	Odoms	Int
Again thrown directly at a State player. Woo. (BR, 0, protection 2/2). Said player fumbles it back to Michigan, though.
Drive Notes: Interception, 21-35, 2 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M32	1	10	Shotgun empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Deep hitch	Odoms	18
State rushing three all the time now—makes sense given the situation, this is a good spot for prevent—and so Threet can step up and loop one to Odoms, which he catches just in front of a DB, stepping OOB. (CA, 2, protection 2/2)
50	1	10	Shotgun empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Deep hitch	Rogers	19
Pretty crappy coverage by State here, allowing Michigan to run 15 yards downfield and covering neither Odoms nor Rogers; Threet again wobbles one out there. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O31	1	10	Shotgun trips	3-3-5 Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	4
WTF? You know you're down two touchdowns here, right? Threet doesn't hold the DE outside enough for Minor to get by him.
O27	2	6	Shotgun empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Fly	Rogers	Inc
Schilling(-2) beaten outside by the DE, who hits Threet as he throws; ball is long and Rogers was double-covered anyway. No idea what to chart this as, but: (TA, 0, protection 0/2, Schilling -2)
O27	3	6	Shotgun empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Post	Stonum	Inc
Threet has Stonum open for a second but throws it late-ish, allowing a safety to break on it. I still gets there and hits Stonum in the chest; he drops it. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
O27	4	6	Shotgun empty	3-3-5 Nickel	Pass	Fly	Mathews	Inc
Threet chucks it to a double-covered Mathews, well out of the endzone. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 21-35, EOG.

Let's get this over with. Chart?

Chart.

As always, the Threetsheridammit chart legend.

STEVEN THREET

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Utah	1	11	N/A	5	1	3	2	1
Miami (NTM)	-	6	N/A	4	1	-	2	-
Notre Dame	3	12	N/A	5	2	1	-	-
Wisconsin	1	15	N/A	9	3	7	2	1
Illinois	3	18	N/A	7	3	4	2	3
Toledo	1	6	N/A	3	1	1	-	-
Penn State	2	5	1	1	1	3	-	2
Michigan State	4	13	3	2	7	3	1	3

Eight of those CAs were screens, FWIW, so this is not as good a day as it appears, especially because something like five of those BRs were balls thrown directly at State defensive backs. Our downfield ratio (with MAs dropped, as those were about 50-50 CA/IN earlier): 36%. You just can't sustain an offense on that.

So, yeah, ugly, ugly performance from Threet, back on the downswing from a good half against Penn State. I don't think this is all on his head, though. As Sean McDonough noted, it looked like Threet was really looping passes out to his receivers. He reminded me of no one so much as deposed Auburn starter Chris Todd, who can rainbow slants. I saw it, man.

Anyway, that elbow is obviously still bothering Threet.

Yeah, what was the deal with all the balls thrown directly at MSU players?

You'll note that with one exception those were all wheel routes; the Minor "touchdown" was also a well-covered wheel route; so was the pass interference on Minor.

Obviously 1) M loves wheel routes, as anyone who's watched them this year knows, and 2) MSU spent a lot of time in practice working on them.

And what was the deal with all the offsides?

This actually came up in a mailbag earlier this year, at which point I said this…

I’m pretty sure Michigan isn’t using no snap count whatsoever, it’s just that the count is silent. DEs don’t have license to time the snap with impunity. There will be variable pauses between the clap and the snap.

…and promptly forgot about it.

As we now know, there weren't really variable pauses between the hand clap and the snap, which allowed Michigan State to jump the snap count time and again to mostly good effect. They picked up a few offsides calls, but they also got incompletions, stuffed runs, and sacks because their guys were moving before Michigan's OL could even get out of their stances. They were offsides on another two or three plays, but didn't get called for it.

These two things indicate anything to you?

I don't like deploying the word "outcoached" because it's code for "I am a mouthbreather who listens to sports talk radio and my team done losted; I have a picture of Calvin peeing on something on my car." It, like "special," has been used so many times and so incorrectly that the term has lost all meaning.

But?

But! It's clear Michigan State was very well prepared to play this edition of Michigan; they scouted out all the wheels and such and timed the snap counts and exploited Michigan's tendencies on offense wickedly. (On defense, OTOH, Michigan broke tendencies and largely played well save for four enormous errors turned in by Stevie Brown and Boubacar Cissoko.)

Aside from varying the snap count a little and picking up those offsides calls, Michigan could do little about it.

I'm not happy about that but neither am I surprised; given the stuff Michigan's been working through this year on offense they don't have the opportunity to put in cute packages every week. The coaching staff is not focused on self-scouting, which was to their detriment in this game.

I mentioned this in the Penn State UFR: Michigan is getting shut down because their offense is not diverse enough. They add in a new package of stuff, like the wheels against ND and the MINOR RAGE against Penn State, and it works for a while because it's new; then the opponent adjusts and that's gone; Michigan isn't consistent enough at any one part of their offense to force teams into uncomfortable situations as they try to defend it. This was the hope of Minor Rage after the Penn State game; it did not work out.

So why are you not calling for the head of Magee and Rodriguez like you did Mike Debord?

Mike Debord had a record of failure when he arrived at Michigan and was working with veteran editions of Manningham, Hart, et al. He had a ton more talent, a ton more experience, and frittered it away. Yes, this absolutely goes for times Chad Henne was in the game; it goes for 2006 and Debord's first go-round at Michigan.

Rodriguez, on the other hand, has coached explosive offenses wherever he's been for ten years, and he's working with an absolute dearth of talent and experience on his side of the ball. Before the season I thought they might be okay, but as soon as the Utah game rolled around I drastically reduced expectations; there they remain.

There is plenty of evidence Rodriguez will turn things around soon enough. There was even more evidence Mike Debord was a poor choice. One season in the most trying of circumstances does not invalidate a decade of success.

Uh, more charts, right?

Yeah, more charts. Receivers:

(remember: 0 is uncatchable, 1 is a circus catch, 2 is a somewhat difficult one, and 3 is a routine one)

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
Clemons	-	-	1/1	1/1		3	-	1/3	7/7
Stonum	-	-	-	1/2		4	0/3	3/3	6/7
Mathews	1	-	-	1/1		7	2/6	4/6	14/15
Hemingway	-	-	-	-		1	0/2	2/2	-
Odoms	3	0/1	1/1	4/4		14	0/2	4/5	26/28
Babb	-	-	-	-		-	0/1	1/1	1/1
Savoy	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	1/2
Rogers	-	-	-	1/2		-	-	-	2/3
Butler	-	-	-	-		2	1/1	0/1	2/2
Koger	-	-	-	2/2		3	0/1	2/2	3/4
McGuffie	-	-	-	-		3	-	2/2	15/15
Brown	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	3/3
Shaw	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	4/4
Minor	1	0/1	-	1/1		3	0/2	1/2	4/4
Moundros	1	-	-	-		3	-	-	1/1

An okay day, with the one big drop from Stonum that would have provided Michigan a (likely meaningless) touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

And PROTECTION METRIC: 34/47. Ortmann –6, Schilling –5, Team –1, Moosman –1. Note that the tackles were often put in tough spots by the snap-jumping. Also note that a lot of this was against three-man rushes and the overall picture was pretty grim.

You mentioned something about bitching about the officiating?

Okay, I in no way want this to be construed as something that affected the game's outcome. Michigan picked up a free touchdown and was lucky to be even close at the end of the game.

Anyway: holy crap. Awful. Not only did Jim Augustyne manage to top himself, but the officials missed three offsides calls on Michigan State and called a ridiculous PI on Harrison on State's go ahead touchdown drive. I'm just mad at the state of officiating in the league, which on this day was probably a net benefit for Michigan.

Heroes?

Uh… I'm looking and I have nothing. Minor did okay, I guess, not fumbling and taking the yards he was provided but he was robbed of a number of opportunities to gash big gains by poor blocking. Odoms continues to prove himself the best receiver on the team. I thought Molk and Moosman were all right.

Goats?

The left side of the line is killing Michigan; I'd be surprised to see Ortmann keep his job once Dorrestein his healthy, and they've been trying to replace McAvoy all year. Threet had a poor day, and Stonum's drops are becoming a concern.

What does it mean blah?

This is not a good offense, and the only salvation is next year.

Note: I finally gave in and decided to make UFR even more complicated. I've added a passing category: "MA". MA stands for "marginal" and fills what I've always thought was a vacancy between "catchable" balls that are decent, routine throws, and "inaccurate" throws that are just no-hopers. Sometimes you can throw a ball that's caught and still have performed sub-optimally.

Also, a note: Penn State will use a formation with two linebackers, two sort of wing players who are S or LB or hybrids over inside receivers, and then two corners with a deep safety for much of the game. I dubbed this their nickel package even though most of the time one of the "safeties" was actually a linebacker. I probably need to work on distinguishing between formations and packages.

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M14	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Odoms	1
Michigan will go with this formation for much of the game: slot receivers on the LOS and the outside ones off the line with Minor in the backfield next to Threet. On the first play, Threet hits Odoms on a hitch for about four yards plus whatever Odoms can get after the catch; Odoms tries to get around the corner over Mathews—also running a hitch—and to the outside but is run down after giving back three yards. Actually a good idea; Mathews took a crappy angle, stepping upfield and allowing the guy right past him. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
M15	2	9	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	Zone read veer	Minor	20
The other formation they used a lot is a formation with the slots off the line nearly stacked over the outside WRs, obviously an attempt to combat the Illinois-style bubble defense employed earlier this year. There's no special trick to this play: it's the same zone read veer they've run a lot so far; the weakside defensive end stumbles and Minor shoots into the secondary. Poor play from the PSU LBs; good blocks by Ortmann (out at tackle again; McAvoy is back at guard) and Molk. Minor(+1) then clocks the safety after 11 yards and runs through a linebacker, picking up another ten.
M35	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	Bubble screen	Mathews	6
Or whatever: Mathews doesn't actually go anywhere; he does have Koger as a lead blocker. Safety fills pretty quickly but still a decent gain. (CA, 3, screen)
M41	2	6	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	Zone read keeper	Threet	5
Exact same play Minor took for 20 but Threet keeps it this time; the DE crashes down and Threet can meander for a few yards and the first down.
M46	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	Wheel	Koger	16
This is only vaguely a wheel, but the idea is the same, with Koger moving up the sideline as Mathews draws coverage to a short post. Threet's pass is well behind Koger, forcing him to come up short and make a sliding catch. Thrown in stride, this could have gone for 10, 20 more yards. (MA, 2, protection 1/2, team -1). Real late blitz recognition and pickup from the line on this, BTW.
O38	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	Dive	Minor	3
This is not zone blocked, it's gap blocked, with Moosman pulling around Molk and into a hypothetical gap between McAvoy and Molk. This gap doesn't really exist as Molk(-1) lets his guy get to the spot. Minor(+1) does a good job of making two yards after contact.
O35	2	7	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	QB off tackle	Threet	5
Same play we saw Sheridan run a few times last week. Michigan gets a major gap as the playside DT steps upfield, expecting a Minor run that would go to the other side of the line, and gets himself sealed. Unfortunately, McAvoy(-1) completely whiffs on the linebacker; he closes and tackles after just five yards.
O30	3	2	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Run	Zone read keeper	Threet	1
Veer action this time; DE crashes down and Threet keeps it; S Scirotto shoots up, however, chopping Threet down a yard from the sticks. If Threet isn't a gimpy gumpy guy probably a first down.
O29	4	1	I-Form 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	Minor	1
Man press with one deep safety; Minor(+2) gets met two yards in the backfield by two tacklers... and bounces out of it, making the first down by half a length of the ball. On replay it's clear a slant from PSU's D beats McAvoy and Moosman, maybe Molk too, and gets a DL and a blitzing linebacker into Minor.
O28	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	QB off tackle	Threet	5
Looks like the same playcall from PSU, as the line slants left and there's a linebacker shooting to backside; Michigan runs right at it. The the slant gives easy angles to block the DE and DT; Schilling reads the play correctly and picks up the blitzing OLB; Minor punches the MLB back. Scirroto again charges up, tackling too soon; Threet did slip as he attempted a cut.
O23	2	5	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	Zone read veer	Minor	9
Same thing—DL slant plus backside blitz—on this play but the other direction, as Minor is lined up to the other side. Michigan runs the veer at it, which holds the OLB outside just long enough for Minor to shoot through the hole; with the blitz/slant there's no one until the second level.
O14	1	10	Shotgun trips	Nickel	Run	QB off tackle	Threet	5
Flooding the wide side of the field here with three WRs and Koger; Koger is covered up and can't go downfield. They back off on this snap but still are shooting the DTs right upfield in anticipation of a stretch or something, and sealing themselves right out of the play. The DE isn't handled very well, as he drives into the backfield against two players and delays McAvoy's downfield release but the DT's cooperation has made that moot. Koger(+1) has gotten a great block on the MLB; McAvoy gets an OLB, but Minor peels off because he thinks the OLB is going to get through and ends up blocking no one; the safety comes up to tackle.
O9	2	5	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	4
Same gap-blocked dive from earlier; Moosman(-1) is beaten by his guy to the outside; Minor(+1) runs through his diving tackle attempt and picks up four.
O5	3	1	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Run	Off tackle	Minor	5
They again get the jump on the PSU DL, hopping outside—away from where Koger is lined up, this breaks a tendency—and getting McAvoy(+1) to seal the weakside DE. Ortmann blocks off the OLB—who must contain to the outside and does—and Moundros shoots up into the hole, chopping the safety. The MLB can't quite get there in time—I think Moosman got a tug on him that went uncalled—and Minor leaps into the endzone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-0, 6 min 1st Q. 14 play, 86 yard touchdown drive. Jebus.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M45	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	Wheel	Odoms	Inc
Poor snap from Molk delays Threet's rollout here; Odoms runs a short out, then wheels upfield against the safety. He's open by a good step or two; Threet, unset, chucks it at him. The ball is dangerously short and inside, falling incomplete. Threet had time to get his body moving to the LOS and could have taken another second, then taken the shot deep. (IN, 0, protection 1/1)
M45	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	36
Zone blocked here and not the veer; Minor takes the handoff headed upfield and Penn State's defensive tackles fight inside. This provides a major hole between Molk and Ortmann. Meanwhile, the MLB has started heading backside to contain Threet as the DE is selling out on Minor; the SLB is ably blocked by McAvoy. We actually get a hat on a safety—Koger this time—and Minor shoots into the secondary, running over the linebacker in the process.
O19	1	10	Shotgun trips	Nickel	Pass	Long handoff	Stonum	3
Pretty quick reaction here by the CB holds it down. (CA, 3, screen)
O16	2	7	Shotgun trips	Nickel	Run	QB off tackle	Threet	3
Crease here is considerably smaller but still exists as Molk gets to the correct side of the DT and manages to hold his ground just well enough. McAvoy and Minor, however, both run past the SLB; he comes in and tackles from an angle.
O13	3	4	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	McGuffie	-1
Think this playcall might be a little too obvious? They've seen quite a bit of McGuffie on the zone stretch and this is the first play he's seen. Penn State freaks out as soon as they see the action of the play. With the WLB shooting playside and the DE's shoulders turned, Threet really needs to keep this. If he does, first down easy. Instead he hands off. The WLB's quick reaction gives Schilling little chance to cut him and there's no frontside crease with Molk losing the battle against the DT this time. He's forced to try, though, and ends up losing a yard.
Drive Notes: Field Goal(26), 10-0, 4 min 1st Q. Penn State gets an illegal substitution penalty, taking the ball down to the nine, and Rodriguez still kicks. Error, IMO.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M22	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	3
Molk(-1) does not get the DT sealed this time, causing a lead-blocking McGuffie to try to help out on that instead of blocking the crashing safety; McAvoy's downfield block is a poor one and the two LBs converge.
M25	2	7	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Pass	Skinny post	Rogers	23
James Rogers? Okay. Penn State blitzes two; the line picks it up. Threet waits for a moment, finding Rogers coming open as he clears the short zone. Good throw and catch. (DO, 3, protection 2/2)
M48	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	Zone read veer	Min	-1
Again, Threet needs to keep this as the DE has given up contain. He doesn't and Minor tries to find a path more up the middle. No dice, as the DT has beaten Molk(-1) and the other one has blown back Moosman(-1).
M47	2	11	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Pass	PA wheel	Odoms	27
They do triple option action, faking the dive and sending McGuffie into the flat. By the time the safety-LB guy on Odoms recognizes it Odoms is already to him and he's reduced to chasing; Threet hits him for major yards. (DO, 3, protection 2/2.) They love Odoms on this route, especially against these LB/safety types, and you can see why: dude is open all day.
O26	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	QB off tackle	Threet	1
Ortmann(-1) beaten by the linebacker who comes up tight to the LOS; the other LB is attacking the hole from the snap and delivers a blow to Minor instead of the other way around.
O25	2	9	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	Zone read keeper	Threet	6
Slightly different variation here as the backside DE does get blocked; the MLB bites heavily on the dive action, allowing Threet outside of him. If Threet's faster, blah blah you know the drill.
O19	3	3	Shotgun empty	Nickel	Run	QB off tackle	Threet	14
Great block by Molk(+2) here, getting playside of a DT lined up a foot outside of him and holding him off long enough for a crease to form. McAvoy's excellent cut block on the MLB is almost unnecessary since Moosman is out there with a great angle to block the same guy; Minor(+1) does an excellent job on the safety-type object.
O5	1	G	Shotgun 2-back trips	Nickel	Run	Busted play	Threet	2
The formation in which Mathews is covered up. Shaw is in on this and I think he's supposed to take a dive handoff but instead just shoots forward looking to block someone. Threet follows for a couple yards.
O3	2	G	I-Form twins	Base 4-3	Run	Iso	Minor	2
Koger covered. Molk sort of beaten on this one but manages to recover okay and get the DT's motion stalled, at which point Moundros(+1) blows into the pair of them, shoving them backwards. That provides enough of a crease for Minor to thump up into the hole; he falls just short of the goal line.
O1	3	G	I-Form twins	Goal line	Run	Iso	Minor	1
DT shooting forward and falling in an attempt to get instant penetration; Michigan is running off the guard so this is an advantage. Big crease, but an unblocked linebacker in the hole. Minor hammers him, falling into the endzone.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 17-7, 13 min 2nd Q. It was fun while it lasted. Goodbye, offense.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M24	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	Hitch and go	Stonum	Inc
Straight dropback with good protection; Threet is staring it down all the way, but there's a reason: he pumps. Double move coming. It comes, and... it's blanketed. Threet throws it anyway, and it's long and OOB. Should have come down to someone else, IMO. This could be IN, TA, or BR. Uh. (BR, 0, protection 2/2)
M24	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	4
This isn't actually a veer but ends up turning into one, basically, as the backside DE gets blocked but is replaced by the weakside LB, held outside by Threet. Schilling(+1) gets an excellent, driving block on the DE, providing the space and momentum for the yardage here; the frontside was jammed up.
M28	3	6	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	Sack	--	-3
Threet has decent protection, decides to throw... and changes his mind a the last second, awkwardly bringing the ball down. After some scrambling around he's sacked; he tries one of those crazy Mallett plays, flipping the ball to Minor, but it's after his knee is down. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-7, 10 min 2nd Q. McDonough says “that's the kind of risky play this young offense might want to avoid,” which is about as gently as you can put it.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M28	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	1
We're back to the stuff we did a lot against Notre Dame with a scoop on the playside DT effectively sealing him. The playside DE runs right out of the play, opening up a big hole, but Koger(-1) gets owned by the LB to this side, shucked and destroyed, and Minor's cut(-1) is pretty stiff, allowing the guy to close and tackle near the LOS. Minor's done a lot of things McGuffie can't do in this game but this is a play on which we'd be better off with the little slasher (and even better off with, say, a junior TE who will hold this block and turn it into a big gainer).
M29	2	9	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Pass	Miscommunication	Odoms	Inc
Threet thinks Odoms is running the wheel again; he pulls up on a hitch. Uh... (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
M29	3	9	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Pass	Seam	Koger	Inc
Ortmann(-2) smoked one on one by the DE, forcing an early throw from Threet. Hit as he throws, the ball sails. (PR, 0, protection 0/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-7, 5 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M24	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	5
Another good hole as Molk seals off the PSU DT. Koger gets beat, though, forcing Minor upfield into the hole and away from the attempted downfield blocks of McAvoy and Schilling.
M29	2	5	Shotgun trips	Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	1
Penn State just smokes this play. Molk beat, no downfield release, Schilling beaten too. Four PSU defenders meet Minor at the LOS.
M30	3	4	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Draw	Minor	-2
Penn State blitzes right into this; not a big fan of this on a third and short-ish when you've been running it all day.
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-7, 2 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M17	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Busted play	Threet	2
Possibly the worst two yard gain in history: Threet fumbles a bad snap, rolls out as a blitzing linebacker overruns him, fumbles the ball again, and then falls on it.
M19	2	8	Shotgun 4-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	12
Penn State caught slanting away from the play; the playside DT helpfully shoots past Molk going the wrong way. Gaping hole on the frontside, then, and easy blocks downfield for Koger and McAvoy that they actually make; I'll even provide McAvoy a +1 for his. Minor into the secondary.
M32	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	PA Hitch	Stonum	6
Almost a long handoff except Stonum actually runs like three yards downfield. (CA, 3, protection N/A)
M38	2	4	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	QB off tackle	Threet	13
Molk(+1) gets the reach block again, sealing the DT well enough to crease the line. Blitzing WLB falls down and takes himself out of the play; Minor(+1) pops the MLB good, and I really wish we had some fast dude at QB as Threet lopes into the secondary.
O49	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	3
This is kind of a similar play to the stretch except Minor is lined up on the other side of Threet and just dives straight up the field. This time the PSU DT guesses right and there's no help from McAvoy on the guy; Minor avoids the tackle, but he's been slowed by the avoidance and is closed in on by the unblocked guy on the backside and the DE, who beat Ortmann.
O46	2	7	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Pass	Sack	--	-6
Protection is actually decent, but Threet pulls the ball down for the second time. He had room to roll around, maybe, but since he was trying to throw he didn't take it; he gets sacked. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
M48	3	13	Shotgun trips	Dime	Pass	Screen	Odoms	5
Koger(-1) completely whiffs his block, which convinces Moosman to try to take the same guy, I guess, and leaves another defensive back totally unfettered as he attacks the ballcarrier.(CA, 3, screen.)
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-14, 11 min 3rd Q. This is actually a pretty respectable drive right here but it's killed by the opening field position: Avery Horn's crappy return set Michigan back. He gets out to the 28 or wherever the average is—it's around there—and Michigan has fourth and eight from the opponent 36 and should go for it. Note that Horn fields a kick six yards in his own endzone on the next KO, fumbles it, and STILL BRINGS IT OUT.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M15	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	15 (Pen-8)
Sheridan. Dammit. Molk beaten on this one, driven back such that there will be no crease; Minor tries to hop outside and does, but only because Ortmann(-1) tackled the DE. Holding is called.
M8	1	18	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	QB off tackle	Sheridan	0
DT again beats Molk. This can't be a halftime adjustment, because it likely would have happened at halftime. I guess PSU is just guessing right.
M8	2	18	Shotgun 4-wide	Nickel	Run	Zone read keeper	Sheridan	-2
DB/LB lined up over Koger shoots forward at the snap because it's Nick Sheridan, right, and he's not going to throw, and thus gets in on Sheridan's keeper immediately.
M6	3	20	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Pass	Sack	--	-6
They slide the protection, leaving both backs in against a four-man rush; Ortmann(-1) loses a stunting DE and McGuffie(-1) uselessly piles on a cut DT, leaving him an avenue up the middle. Sheridan does his part by standing around waiting to get crushed. (I'm not charting this guy anymore... what's the point?)
Drive Notes: Safety, 17-19, 4 min 3rd Q. Sheridammit.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M20	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	-3
Penn State now in soft man with one deep, keying three LBs on the run. Both Moosman and McAvoy(-1 each) get driven back and there's no crease up the middle; Minor attempts to cut back and is swarmed.
M17	2	13	???	???	Pass	Rollout hitch	Stonum	8
We miss much of this play for a reply; when we come back Sheridan is tossing a one-yard hitch to Stonum; Stonum squeezes up the sideline for a few more (no damn charts)
M25	3	5	Shotgun trips	Nickel	Pass	Hitch	Mathews	Inc
This is way inaccurate but I don't know what Mathews is doing on this play either; he doesn't even look for the ball.
Drive Notes: Punt, 17-26, 2 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	D Form	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M21	1	10	Shotgun 2-back	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read dive	Minor	7
Threet back in. As soon as he goes out again charting is over. Grady the second back in the game this time and used as a blocker. Slightly different scheme on this play with the backside DT getting doubled by the RT and RG and blown back; the frontside guy is expecting a stretch and hops to the other side of Molk. Grady shoots backside to block the DE who's normally given the zone read threat. WLB is held outside by the keeper threat, and the MLB, also expecting a stretch, runs himself out of the play. Minor has a crease and uses it.
M28	2	3	Shotgun 3-wide	Base 4-3	Run	Zone read stretch	Minor	-2
Molk(-1) beaten badly by the DT, ceding ground directly into Minor's path; Minor doesn't have a cutback with the backside DE selling out and unwisely tries to go around Molk instead of slamming it up the middle in an attempt to get like a yard or two. Threet could have kept this, too, I guess, though he's banged up. The announcers keep going on as if anyone would ever put Sheridan in the game by choice.
M26	3	5	Shotgun 2-back	Nickel	Pass	Sack	--	-7
Ortmann(-3) smoked around the corner; Threet gets it stripped from the blindside; Penn State recovers. (PR, 0, protection 0/3)
Drive Notes: Fumble, 17-26, 13 min 3rd. Sheridan returns with Penn State holding a three-score lead; game over, who cares, I'm not doing the rest of this.

 Well, that fell apart.

Yeah, yeah it did. But I'm actually pretty encouraged. As I mentioned in the preview, Penn State's stats are a little hard to take seriously given the competition they've faced but that's still going to be a substantially above-average defense when the season's over. And, sure, Michigan stalled out after those glorious three opening drives but how much of that was Sheridan being generally overwhelmed? Here's the M offense as led by Threet:

• 86-yard touchdown drive
• 49-yard field goal drive
• 78-yard touchdown drive
• three-and-out
• three-and-out
• three-and-out
• 36 yard drive to midfield
• three-and-out punctuated by blindside fumble.

This is not exactly Tulsa, but it is 253 yards and 17 points (with terrible field position) in just over a half of work. He stays in the game and Michigan could approach 30 and 400 yards against a good D.

Now… I think that's a little optimistic since Penn State adapted to Michigan's newly newfangled MINOR RAGE rushing attack, but that was actually pretty encouraging given the opponent, venue, and situation.

Speaking of Threet: Chart?

Chart.

There's not a lot of it, with Michigan running successfully much of the day and Sheridan seeing the bulk of the second half. I'm not charting Sheridan anymore, by the way, as there's no point. We're very clear on his deficiencies by now and he won't see the field again after this year unless he's the last survivor of a meteor impact.

Anyway, Threet:

As always, the Threetsheridammit chart legend.

STEVEN THREET

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR
Utah	1	11	N/A	5	1	3	2	1
Miami (NTM)	-	6	N/A	4	1	-	2	-
Notre Dame	3	12	N/A	5	2	1	-	-
Wisconsin	1	15	N/A	9	3	7	2	1
Illinois	3	18	N/A	7	3	4	2	3
Toledo	1	6	N/A	3	1	1	-	-
Penn State	2	5	1	1	1	3	-	2

That's not a bad day, especially on the road against a good defense, but it's also not a huge sample size. Two of those "TAs" were drive killers where Threet cocked to throw, then decided against it and got sacked.

For guidance on what I mean by "MA": the MA in this game was the Koger wheel route that was well behind the receiver. Koger adjusted to it and dug it out, but Threet's throw took Koger off his feet, made it a difficult catch, and robbed Michigan of the opportunity for 10 yards of YAC. So it's not so bad that it's inaccurate, but it's not a run of the mill CA, either. Sometimes I would annotate CAs with a + or –; these are going to be the CA- events.

Here's your PROTECTION METRIC: 15/21, Team –1, Ortmann -5.

That might look ugly, but –5 of that game on two plays where Ortmann was beaten badly by Evans, one of which resulted in the game-killing sack/fumble. Everyone else was actually pretty decent.

And receiverchart:

(remember: 0 is uncatchable, 1 is a circus catch, 2 is a somewhat difficult one, and 3 is a routine one)

	This Game					Totals
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
Clemons	-	-	-	-		3	-	0/2	6/6
Stonum	1	-	-	2/2		4	0/3	3/3	5/5
Mathews	-	-	-	1/1		6	2/6	4/6	13/14
Hemingway	-	-	-	-		1	0/2	2/2	-
Odoms	2	-	-	3/3		11	0/1	3/4	22/24
Babb	-	-	-	-		-	0/1	1/1	1/1
Savoy	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	1/2
Rogers	-	-	-	1/1		-	-	-	1/1
Butler	-	-	-	-		2	1/1	0/1	2/2
Koger	1	-	1/1	-		3	0/1	2/2	1/2
McGuffie	-	-	-	-		3	-	2/2	15/15
Brown	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	3/3
Shaw	-	-	-	-		-	-	-	4/4
Minor	-	-	-	-		2	0/1	1/2	3/3
Moundros	-	-	-	-		2	-	-	1/1

No drops; few opportunities to do so. One good catch from Koger.

Okay, and all that…

Is basically irrelevant for this game, as Michigan was heavily ground-based.

Does it worry you we're getting shut down after initial success?

This was similar to the Illinois game, where Michigan ripped off a couple of touchdown drives and then picked up bupkis the rest of the game. Trend? Coincidence? What?

My theory: Michigan is implementing portions of a whole gameplan trying to find something that works. They then practice the hell out of their plan and break it out, finding early success.

However, I, and I think a lot of other Michigan fans, thought "I really hope they have a curveball coming up" in the second quarter; they did not. Once you get past the game plan, Michigan has no backup. So we've seen teams adjust to the offense and have success stopping it. 

When does the backup plan come in? Well, 1) when Threet's elbow gremlins step off, and 2) when these guys get past the training wheels stage and have a base they can fall back on. We've seen the offense expand, or at  least move, as the season has progressed, but when they go back to the old stuff they haven't repped over the past few weeks they're not sharp. That sharpness will only come with time.

My hope is that this MINOR RAGE offense is something they can work from as a baseline. I think they've found an effective rushing offense that's going to move forward most of the time—even when rushing plays didn't work that well against PSU the result was usually a 2 or 3 yard gain, not the epic losses from previous games—and must be defended foremost. From there Michigan can add in racing stripes and a spoiler and maybe move away from the basement of total offense rankings.

I think they've got something to build on now. As long as the gremlins cooporate.

Heroes?

Minor leapt from fumblebot to likely starter from here on out. I thought Molk had a largely excellent day against a good opponent, and this was one of Threet's better days.

Goats?

Threet's elbow gremlin. You're a dick, elbow gremlin! Hear me? You're a dick! Also, Ortmann got smoked on that last killer sack.

What does this mean for MSU and beyond?

I think I blew my wad on this already, but I think the ability of Michigan to run right at Penn State with pretty good success can be the foundation of a solid offense. If Michigan can force a seventh guy in the box opponents will have to run a man free, which Michigan should try to exploit deep with Stonum or Odoms, or run a two-deep zone with linebackers in the box, which should be bubble screen party time.

Before opponents other than Notre Dame could sell out on the bubble screen, keep two deep safeties, and hurt the running game. That's no way to win football games. Now we might have a basis for a real offense.

Hooray?

9/6/2008 – Michigan 16, Miami (Not That Miami) 6 – 1-1

Could you maybe throw it at the receivers? No? Well, I tried.

Michigan fans have had a lot of ominous signs presented to them in the first two weeks of the season. There is a walk-on at quarterback. When Mark Ortmann was injured last week, a walk-on replaced him at left tackle. At one point during last week’s game the skill players went like this: sophomore, freshman, freshman, freshman, freshman. Steve Brown is reminding folks of the sucky version of Ryan Mundy. There has been much to fret over. 

But nothing has struck fear in me like what occurred late in the fourth quarter of yesterday’s ten-point win over a MAC team: the students burst into a chorus of “It’s great to be a Michigan Wolverine.”

On the one hand, get it in while you can, kids. On the other: you have got to be kidding me. Why stop there? Let’s rush the damn field.

---------------

Game two was a virtual replay of game one minus some opponent competence, and does little to reassure that Michigan isn’t going to struggle its way towards a rinky-dink bowl that won’t actually be in Shreveport but might as well be.

Outside of two Actual Touchdown Drives, the offense was more of the same minus even one downfield completion. The defense was pretty good but Miami’s receivers did them a whole host of favors; it does not look as dominant as it needs to be given the Yakety Sax on the other side of the ball.

Which, like, okay. It kind of sucks that this season is going to be rough but given the cards Rodriguez was dealt it’s understandable. If this was Carr and the future stretched out like tapioca pudding, I would understand it and perhaps participate. But it’s not.

The discontent from some quarters is as obvious as it is petulant. When Michigan got the ball back after their second touchdown drive, the case for Lloydball could not have been more obvious. Every pass you throw is an invitation to disaster. You’re up two scores with around 6-7 minutes left in the game. Your defense has given up six points. You can’t lose unless you do something disastrously stupid, which happens to be your offense’s speciality.

So you do the obvious, boring thing: run-run-run-punt. And then some guy in the stands turns to me and says “not even one pass?” and I die a little bit inside because this man has no idea about game theory and no patience for a transition and was probably one of those guys posting spleen on the internet you may have run across if you’re a glutton for punishment or it’s kind of your job.

That’s an extreme example of a guy who seemed to seize an opportunity to sarcastically grumble about TINYFMF*, but I see lesser examples criticizing Rodriguez for “not adapting his offense” or “sacrificing this season” and all that, and I just think “what are you supposed to do when not even Tacopants can catch any pass thrown more than ten yards downfield?” There is no offense you can adapt to when your quarterbacks are slow white guys who can’t throw and your offensive line is a patchwork melange of who-dats, freshmen, and walk-ons.

Everyone’s permitted their immediate “#&$*!” when Steven Threet launches a pass into the troposphere or McGuffie is swarmed in the backfield or Steve Brown demonstrates his mastery of non-Euclidean geometry. Outside of that your best course of action is patience, tolerance, and whiskey.

*(This Is Not Your Father’s Michigan Football)

Bullets of crank:

• I just want to note this for the record: you can’t find a Michigan blog out there that has leveled anything resembling criticism of the new regime. Meanwhile, there are plenty of You Shouldn’t Extrapolate But HA HA HA columns in the newspapers. This will be ignored in two years when papers are filled with stories about how Rodriguez is triumphant over the eBays, message blogs, internets, and assorted other insane rabble.
• The students started a wave when Michigan was up four points in the third quarter. This is unacceptable. Waves require at least a two-score lead. We need some senior leadership in the stands, too.
• Also unacceptable: the RAWK MUSIC backing to the highlights shown at the end of the third quarter. What is this, Michigan State? After the band takes the field, the only music in the stadium comes from them. Someone find the guy who made that decision and put him in stocks on the diag.
• WHERE IS MY CRANBERRY JUICE?
• I’ll be the last man on earth to say it: Donovan Warren’s audition for the punt return job should be over. He’s not good at it, he’s too valuable to risk, and he refuses to make a fair catch. Boubacar Cissoko had some promising kickoff returns; let him have a crack.
• Michigan’s problems with underneath coverage continued; the little dreads guy on Miami must have caught 4 or 5 little hitch routes that he managed to turn upfield because a late-arriving linebacker—usually Thompson—did not tackle immediately.
• I’m worried about Troy Woolfolk, who the coaches seem deathly afraid to put on the field. I’m dying for a 4-2-5 nickel package against these spread teams.
• I LOLed at the Miami coach’s clock management. Actually, that’s not true. Despite the fact that it was helping Michigan win I was livid because for some reason clock malfeasance drives me crazy, but: Miami was running, huddling, and watching the clock wind down when they were down two scores with six minutes left, and they didn’t even use all their timeouts on Michigan’s final run-run-run-punt drive. What a maroon.
• Who’s excited for the worst Michigan-Notre Dame game ever?

Site note: UFRs will be Wednesday/Thursday going forward; every year I suggest they will be Tuesday/Wednesday and am forcibly disabused of this idea the firs week. Also, I miss Joel A. Morgan’s cartoons and am accepting submissions for random inclusion into UFR. It’s like the New Yorker: you submit stuff and sometimes I post it when it strikes my fancy. Except I don’t pay you.

O Do Not Forsake Me. Jerry Green is officially one thousand years old:

Michigan opened its celebrated anti-tradition era with its heavily publicized modern-style offense looking as though it were conducting a fire drill.

By that, I mean helter-skelter, willy-nilly and putt-putt!

Glabdanged frozzmatozz put that in your pipe and smoke it boy howdy I got an Indian nickel lets get a phosphate at the druggist this qualifies as a sentence in a major newspaper these days.

Later, Green uses “newfangled” without a hint of irony:

So what's different, other than this newfangled offense that made Rodriguez such a coveted football coach?

Well, it's now tradition-be-damned at Michigan!

I didn’t even know you could do that. I also didn’t know you could use exclamation points helter-skelter, willy-nilly, and putt-putt!

Green is a weird mix of Grandpa Simpson and T. Herman Zweibel; the above-linked column is a must-read if only for its antiquated strangeness. I mean:

On the sideline, Threet and David Cone and then the replaced Sheridan wigwagged the signals to the quarterback of the moment. Assistant coaches in headsets, connected by wire to play-callers up above, translated the plays into the code for the semaphore artists.

These things are newfangled: wigwagging(?), connecting things to other things by telegraph, and signaling plays into the sideline. Also newfangled: the horseless carriage, fire, and the atmosphere. Don’t get proper views of the night sky anymore with all that nitrogen in the way back in my day we had proper views and also we were prokaryotes someone bring me my cranberry juice.

Green circa 2.5 billion years ago

PUTT PUTT!

The invaluable Smart Football might be posting at a more regular rate, and lets hope so, because…

When Rodriguez got to Tulane with Tommy Bowden they threw the ball over the place, but (a) it was in Conference USA, (b) they were excellent at the 3-step passing game, but defenses are better at defending against those passes now than they were a decade ago, and (c) his downfield passing game left something to be desired. And in the years since, it's not that Rodriguez is at heart a running guy, it's just that was what worked and it masked some of the passing game deficiencies. When I study the route combinations, they do not appear to be designed conceptually, and instead are a kind of grab-bag of a few routes here or there. You don't see his schemes organized of horizontal, vertical, and triangle stretches.

…this is about the most interesting thing anyone’s said about him since he was hired at Michigan.

The upside:

Now, Rodriguez's saving grace is I've seen him in action, and he's an excellent fundamentals coach and is a great teacher. And I think he understands all these things - I mean the guy did exploit the zone-read spread stuff before anyone else - but hasn't had the chance to reexamine his offense with such a critical eye. This season, to be successful, I believe he will have to.

Being successful this season will rest less on the pass routes and more on reducing the overall Yakety Sax vibe, IMO, but down the road this will be something to look out for. Click the link for what Smart Football means by “conceptual” pass routes.

This worked out. The “Victors Walk” was a neat addition to a football Saturday:

A ton of schools do this for good reason; glad to see we’re amongst them. I hope the former letterwinners are included in the walk when Michigan does the thing where they bring back a bunch of old dudes for the Tunnel Of History.

Perception is a weird thing. Dr. Saturday, nee SMQ, on the defense:

If there's anything good to take away for the Wolverines, it's that the defense, overall, lived up to its hype. Brian Johnson shredded it for 260 yards and a couple touchdowns in the first half -- he only topped 260 yards in an entire game once in '07 -- but if you were too distracted by the offensive horrifics on the other side to notice, the Utes' second half production amounted to two first downs and six total yards. If not for the towering leg of Kicking-and-Punting Messiah Louis Sakoda, who hammered home the eventual winning margin on a 54-yarder after the Utes went three-and-out from the Michigan 40, it would have been a shut out. It was dominating, anyway, and there's some promise in that. Just some, though, not enough to raise expectations beyond the Champs Sports Bowl.

I don’t see how you can just dismiss the shredding handed out, as it’s clear evidence of a glaring weakness in the linebacker corps and something between inexperience and Cato June at safety. The overall performance graded out to “slightly disappointing,” as you’d hope Michigan scoring 23 points would be enough for victory. It would have been if not for that little kicker guy, but only just.

The second half was very encouraging and it’s better to have Michigan suddenly get its act together late—hopefully that straight 4-3 we saw against the spread is permanently junked—than come out storming and fall apart; I am still a bit leery of the unit. Notre Dame will be interesting.

Meanwhile, an even more mystifying reaction: “Michigan needs to get creative”:

A buzz went through the crowd on the first offensive play of the Rich Rodriguez era, as Michigan quarterback Nick Sheridan deftly shuffled the ball to Martavious Odoms cutting across the field.

As the fans howled, Odoms gained three yards. No cloud of dust could be spotted from the press box, but it might as well have been there.

As far as creativity went, the first play was about as good as it got for Michigan on Saturday. So were the results.

To call the Wolverines' offense vanilla would be an insult to the term. Rodriguez came to Michigan as an offensive innovator, but his playbook might as well as been a pamphlet against Utah.

?!?!?!? Martavious Odoms is a tiny freshman slot receiver who received a shovel pass counter on the first play of the game. About the only thing that could have been less Lloyd Carr would have been a double-reverse trick pass. And I submit there’s a limited amount of creativity you can install into a gameplan when you have no quarterbacks who have ever taken a college snap, one returning OL starter, and freshmen everywhere at the skill positions. Rodriguez was busy getting them to run the right way and was only 90% successful at that. And there was a fair bit of creativity: the attempts to get Utah leaping offsides, the option here and there, the shocking lack of bubble screens

Etc.: Braves & Birds weighs in; Varsity Blue breaks the numbers down a bit; the WLA is cranky at you, not the team; Carty is like the only guy who doesn’t have a “Don’t leap to conclusions BUT” paragraph; MVictors has the circle of death, plus a picture of a dejected Scott Shafer

Who are these guys?

No, seriously. What the hell is going on? Where's Henne? Hart? Long? Is that a running back taking snaps? Do they know you're allowed to take a snap from under center? Who stole my football team and replaced them with Valdosta State?

Exciting new kids in order of projected use this year:

1. Martavious Odoms. He’s the only healthy slot receiver and is the Chad Henne of WRs: a starter from day one in high school. He’s ready-ish to play and will be counted on heavily; may return kicks.
2. Darryl Stonum. Michigan needs someone to put the fear of God into opposing safeties and Stonum’s the guy with that rep. Early enrollment means he’s not as clueless as your average freshman; hell, he’s got just as much time in this system as anyone on the team.
3. Michael Shaw. Slightly ahead of McGuffie because I think they’ll use him in th slot a bit.
4. Sam McGuffie. Run, annoyed man. Run.
5. Terrence Robinson. Injury sets him back, obviously, but once he’s back he’ll rotate into the slot.

Quarterback ack.

It is possible this ends well. Michigan will surround Sheridan with a deep and varied set of receiving targets, and the spread ‘n shred can turn a wobbly-armed but heady passer into Zak Kustok or Bret Basanez. It doesn’t demand the precision howitzer Carr’s pro-style system did. The physical limitations (and senior year injury) that forced Sheridan to walk-on somewhere don’t have to be fatal.

But if we’re being honest with ourselves there’s little chance it starts well. The note of distress coming from practice observers and press conferences is clear, and the scary thing is a lot of the reported problems are things like “throws bubble screens backwards.” (Michigan fans are going to find out how spoiled Chad Henne’s unerring accuracy on screens made them.)

Though practice reports got less alarmed as fall camp progressed—there was even video evidence of Sheridan completing passes farther than six yards downfield—Michigan's best hope here is for something functional, a guy who can throw a bunch of screens and keep the offense moving.

This offensive line can’t be as bad as Notre Dame’s, can it?

This was going to be a “definitely not” until the Zirbel injury and John Ferrara’s move from defensive tackle to potential starter. Now it’s just “probably not.”

There’s a fair quantity of talent slated to start. Schilling, of course, was an OMG shirtless recruit waylaid by injury. He should be much better this year. Moosman and Molk were both four-star sorts. That’s three of your starters with guru approval, and the guys who didn’t get it are both redshirt juniors who’ve seen a series here and there.

Plenty of teams have gotten away with worse outfits. Georgia and Auburn both started multiple freshmen last year and that worked out pretty okay; just because the nearest and dearest line to go through a painful youth movement became Most Extreme Epic Disaster Challenge does not mean this is Michigan’s fate. Whenever it’s dark out and your thoughts turn to Notre Dame’s 2007 season replicated in winged helmets, just remember that Charlie Weis spent fall camp installing a spread option look for one game against Georgia Tech and neglected things like technique or pads. It was coaching malpractice on an unprecedented scale; Michigan won’t go down the same road.

HOWEVA, there are some major concerns. We know these things about Mark Ortmann:

• He was not a big time recruit.
• The coaching staff thought he was clearly worse than a guy (Schilling) who was not ready to play last year.
• He’s the starting left tackle virtually by default.

Unless we’re lacking some critical piece of information like an undisclosed, lingering injury or Ortmann’s sudden improvement, that looks a lot like a recipe for blindside hits galore assuming Michigan ever tries a pass longer than ten yards. Which they may not. But that’s another question.

And then there’s Zirbel injury, which puts Michigan one ligament away from starting a true freshman or a guy who was playing defensive tackle two weeks ago. Even if the line stays miraculously healthy, the lack of confidence in Molk is troubling.

If a couple of guys don’t pan out or, worse, get injured, darkness threatens to warsh over the dude at quarterback.

Will Rich Rodriguez and Calvin Magee be inherently better than Carr and Debord?

Michigan fans have complained for years on end about the predictability of Michigan’s offense. Whenever Michigan replaced its starting receivers, it was a guaranteed run. Whenever a tight end lined up at fullback, it was a guaranteed pass. Fullback shuffles were 90% runs to the side of the shuffle, and the few times it wasn’t didn’t justify the expense in yards and downs expended to launch the surprise.

This differentiates them from zero fanbases nationwide. Hell, West Virginia fans had a field day decrying the “predictable” offense Rich Rodriguez ran after his departure. Seriously:

“i will be glad whenever mcgee is officially gone. his 'i will only call 4 different plays' mentality can suck up in michigan right now for all i care.”

In a way, it was predictable: you run 70% of the time and a hefty chunk of the passes are bubble screens. In another way it obviously wasn’t. Touchdowns don’t score themselves.

Anyone who’s read this blog for a while knows my opinion, and it was best summed up in the aftermath of the Horror:

If every Michigan fan can tell you certain things obviously tip Michigan's plays, what are the chances opposing coaches don't know this? Zero. Everyone knows what Michigan is going to do. This is something we've heard every time a bowl opponent is asked about us for the past half-decade and probably longer. It's an arrogant waste of expectation because you expect that you won't need to fool the other team. It's like playing poker without ever bluffing.

This opinion is apparently shared by many, including current members of the team. This is perhaps the most damning quote I’ve ever read on the topic, and it comes from Brandon Graham:

“Everybody knew exactly what we were going to do. That was like the arrogance of being at Michigan. ‘Our players are better than yours.’ That’s how it was. That kind of got to (players) when it stopped working. The big games, like Ohio State, we would want to show them something we didn’t do during the season. But we’d go out there and do the same thing.”

This thinking is ancient, dating back to Bo and the days of unlimited scholarships. Michigan assumed it was inherently better than its opponents and every game was an exercise choking out the variance so that superiority could show.

It is also the complete antithesis of Rich Rodriguez. This was an opinion expressed earlier:

Rodriguez comes from a wholly different background than Carr, coming up through the ranks at NAIA schools and Tulane and Clemson and West Virginia. Until Pat White showed up he never had a significant talent advantage against the vast majority of opponents. He never, ever had the luxury of lying back and thinking to himself "if we out-execute the opponent we will win," and it shows. He invented a whole new offense and used it to exploit inefficiencies in recruiting. To seal the Sugar Bowl against Georgia he called a fake punt, exploiting inefficiencies in fourth-down playcalling. For the past seven years he has played Moneyball at West Virginia.

To me, the exciting thing about Rodriguez is not necessarily his system but his mindset. He's looking to squeeze out every ounce of expectation, make every resource stretch as far as he can, and now he's been provided resources few other coaches have.

This is the Coal Spoon theory, and it answers this question simply: yes.

Well?

You know, I get emails from time to time complaining about how negative I’m being, but not in a “you’re just incorrigible” way. They mostly complain about the depression induced.

What can I say? For the first time, Michigan is violating several of the preview heuristics: don’t switch a guy at the last second and give him playing time. Don’t completely change your system—not that the change is bad, but it will be painful in the short term. Don’t start a walk-on at quarterback. Have something other than crippled goats backing up your offensive line.

These things are nigh insurmountable obstacles in the quest for a non-ugly offense. There’s just too much that can go wrong (or already has) for the offense to function at an aesthetically pleasing level.

It shouldn’t get anywhere close to the radioactive mess Notre Dame was, or even be the worst offense in the league. The Rodriguez system doesn’t demand that much out of either of the shaky position groups. It does demand that the skill position players be able to beat their guys one-on-one in the open field, and Michigan should have the athletes to do this with regularity.

I think we’ll see an offensive of extremes this year: good or better against teams with shaky athleticism, bad or worse against A-level opponents. Scanning the schedule I see only three or four of those.

One major caveat: the situation at quarterback and on the offensive line is extremely fragile. If a guy goes down or just doesn’t pan out the dropoff as you go back is severe; there is a small chance a couple guys implode and the offense makes a short trip off a cliff.

Stupid Predictions

• People are very excited about Martavious Odoms going into 2009, like Steve Breaston excited.
• Sheridan starts off the starting quarterback, is replaced at some point, but ends the season as the guy.
• Junior Hemingway establishes himself a starter midseason.
• The running back situation involves a mess of players; Minor, Brown, McGuffie, and Shaw all see 100 carries. Brown has the best YPC.
• Michigan has a better offense in-conference than they did last year. (Ninth.)
• Ricky Barnum ends up starting five or six games.
• Michigan is around 50th in yardage.