I GET IT
Les Miles will not be Michigan's next head coach, according to sources close to the situation.
Miles has signed a lucrative, multi-year extension with LSU.
"It's done," said a source close to the situation. "He's staying at LSU."
Whatever happened to the dream job stuff? The crawl on glass stuff? Is another 500k or 1m a year that much of a big deal? Jesus.
Update: Carty says there's a 1:45 press conference at LSU.
Update II: ESPN has changed the story on the site.
Didn't see it, so can't tell you how strong it was: apparently it was reported as 'breaking news', FWIW. Nothing on the website yet save this announcement Pelini will be Nebraska's new coach.
For those unfamiliar with Tenuta, he was the good half of Georgia Tech the past six years, consistently putting out defenses bad-ass enough to send Reggie Ball to bowl games despite having only scanty talent at Georgia Tech. He coached at Ohio State from 1996 to 2000 as a DBs coach and, in his last year, defensive coordinator. Hiring him would be awesome.
A general summary of things that have been sent to me.
A source close to someone on the search committee asserts that Miles is not a done deal and that there will be a real search; Miles will interview shortly after the SEC championship game but there remains an A list of five or so coaches, including Miles, that Michigan is looking at closely.
On the other side of things, someone relays that email traffic between various big-balling donors says Miles is done and will be announced Monday or Tuesday; two other sources, one from the LSU side of things, are in agreement.
IMO, the preponderance of the evidence is on the side of "it's done," especially with the stuff about the players being told from this morning.
This from a student manager around both Miles and Carr when they were on staff:
I found both Lloyd and Les to be decent, down-to-earth people. Les did have a lot of charisma and intensity back then as he does today. He also could be pretty funny at times. Cameron may have thought he could walk on water a bit because he was credited with putting in some semblance of a consistently efficient passing attack at the end of Bo's tenure (with the QB/WR development of Jim Harbaugh, Greg McMurtry, Chris Calloway, Desmond Howard, and Elvis Grbac), but if he wasn't humbled by his tenure at Indiana, he certainly is now. Never got the impression Miles was more arrogant than the next football coach (there is a certain degree of an asshole/prick factor that comes with the job.)
Cameron left I thought in '92 or '93 to go the Redskins. Also, Miles went to work for a former Colorado colleague, Bob Simmons at Oklahoma State to become offensive coordinator. Moeller never named an offensive coordinator during his tenure, despite being the position he held from '87-'89 as the only OC of the Schembechler era. Maybe Miles and Cameron's departures were to beef up their resume with NFL and OC experience since it was clear Moeller was never going to have an offensive coordinator. If, however, Miles left after Moeller's resignation in May 1995 and Fred Jackson was promoted to OC over him, that may be a different story concerning the origins of this "Les-Lloyd rift."
It seems that Bo was always fond of Les, recalling Miles visiting him after his open heart surgery in his book. If Moeller had coached another 5-10 years, Miles would have been the successor (either directly promoted as a UofM assistant or from Oklahoma State/Dallas Cowboys) with Bo's public blessing. If we're talking anywhere between 2000-2005, Lloyd probably would have been too old at that point to start a head coaching tenure. Lloyd actually interviewed for the Wisconsin job after the '89 season, but the job went to Barry Alvarez.
The generally held opinion on the rift between Miles and Carr -- which I believe to be real -- was that it started three or four years ago when Miles started recruiting against Michigan regularly and apparently told some kids that Carr was retiring. The nastier version of the story goes that Carr's supposed health issues were also relayed. Depending on your POV and which side of the story you tend to believe, this is either a misunderstanding or PURE EVIL.
The upshot: given everything out there at the moment, I would be very surprised if it was anyone other than Miles; the aggressive timeline is a bit shakier given what looks like real resistance to the idea from some camps in the athletic department.
IMO: Miles expects an offer and will take it if he gets one; he told the team as much. Pro-Miles people in the AD expect to offer him Sunday after the SECCG and announce early in the week; Anti-Miles people in the AD are hoping to delay, interview some other guys, and possibly find someone else.
What may be one final blast of unconfirmed internet rumor: Tigerdroppings has multiple posters who say Miles has told the players he's leaving.
He told the team today after practice that he's stepping down and going to Michigan. (or at least so a little birdie told me...)
I can confirm this as well. Heard directly from a players mouth. Miles is gone. Expect it to break soon. Players can't keep this secret long.
this was just confirmed to me through a text message from a guy i know on the team...so its pretty true.
An email followup to one of the guys on the board:
I'm pretty good friends w/ RJ Jackson. I was hanging out w/ his girlfriend, Chelsea, tonight. I dropped her off at his apartment so they could hang for a while before they left for ATL. He told us Miles informed them at practice today that "he was leaving". Told whole team he took the UM job. I didn't get to go into details. Its true and a done deal.
Local news stations down in Baton Rouge also seem pretty sure he's out.
Is this 100%? No. There were a few reports of similar quality -- credible seeming, multiply-sourced -- on Kirk Ferentz accepting the job linked here that turned out to be wrong. These are concentrated on one message board, which is bad, but are much more specific, which is good.
Is this 90%? Yeah. Four different people above claim to have heard from players on the team that Miles is leaving. The Ferentz things had no details and no indication anyone at the program had been told; in contrast, this would be a point of no return announcement by Miles. And there's precious little room for misinterpretation here.
Wait. Michigan's official contact with Miles will wait until after the SEC championship game:
"Bill Martin called (LSU AD Skip Bertman) today and asked permission to talk to Coach Miles," Vincent said. "Bertman asked that (the Wolverines) wait until after the SEC championship game. They agreed to that."
That might make a lot of people's hypothetical Monday-Tuesday timeline difficult, if it meant anything. It likely does not. Bertman has a realistic perspective on the situation:
"I don't think anyone would try to speak to Les before the SEC title game, but that doesn't mean they couldn't speak to his agent (George Bass) before the game or at any time," Bertman said by telephone from his home. "There's no reason Bill or anyone else can't use headhunters to speak to Les' agent, but I would not assume that Bill would speak to Les himself without our permission. That doesn't mean he can't speak to other people."
Realistically, at this point Michigan could have hammered out every last detail through intermediaries and this would be a formality. I believe this is the case, as taking the formal step of asking for permission to contact is a public event that can create a PR backlash if the coach in question turns it down.
Bertman's sticking with his promise to let Miles coach LSU in its bowl game, by the way.
Where's the talent? Blue takes on the "Miles is winning with Saban's recruits" argument effectively. Killer graph:
There are some holes in the methodology here, IMO. Recruiting ratings are fallible for a lot of reasons. From a high level perspective each recruit can be viewed as a weighted lottery ticket.
You cash in the best ticket and start him; the others languish. If there's a three star in the starting lineup for LSU he may have beaten out really highly rated guys and is likely to have high value. A three star who starts for Michigan State is probably beating out Jon "Samurai" Misch and is probably not very good at all. The entire roster should be considered.
Also, youth was not taken into account. Steve Schilling might be a five star but he's still a freshman.
Still, the Blue post rhetorically dissects the "it's Saban!" argument with considerable skill. It's worth checking out. My biggest problem with that particular meme is it ignores the Weis effect. Simply stated, the Weis effect: "If Charlie Weis was in charge of developing these players, would they be 'talented'?" Miles has been the head coach at LSU for three years now, which means that even if most of his starters are Saban's recruits, they're Miles' players. And many of them have developed into sure-thing NFL first-rounders despite being meh recruits: Ali Highsmith was a three star. Player development exists, and some coaches are better at it than others.
I mean, God, look at Ohio State's starting defense this year. Laurinaitis and Jenkins were three stars, both starting safeties two-star nobodies, the defensive tackles were pretty meh recruits IIRC, and Larry Grant was an unregarded JUCO transfer. Only the defensive ends and Marcus Freeman were real blue-chip recruits. Every year I write an Ohio State preview and Ohio State fans read it and say "that's pretty good, but you rely way too heavily on recruiting rankings"; this is because I try to use consistent heuristics across the entire conference, one of which is recruiting rankings, and no school in the country defies those as frequently and dramatically as Ohio State.
Great, it's noon and I need some whiskey. Thanks, Tressel.
And the winner in the rinky-dink bowl contest is... not the Outback, which took Wisconsin. Illinois is a lock for the Citrus unless they get drafted by a desperate BCS -- unlikely unless Hawaii coughs it up against Washington. Michigan is fighting with Penn State for either the Alamo Bowl or the "Champs Sports" Bowl, something never before considered by this blog and henceforth referred to as the "Citrus Junior" in a futile protest against title sponsors.
Which should you prefer? That depends. The Alamo usually features the #4 team in the Big 12 but this year the league will certainly get two BCS bids, leaving Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, and Kansas to other destinations. The leftovers: Texas Tech. Sweet Jesus. The Citrus Junior features the #4 ACC team, which will be Clemson or Virginia. Since my concern is just to win the damn game, I would prefer the Citrus Junior, especially if Virginia is the opponent. No offense to the Hoos, but if there's a team out there with a flattering record relative to its expected Pythagorean record, it's Virginia.
No, I can't let this go. DeBord:
"I don't think there's any doubt I learned a lot," DeBord said of the CMU experience. "In every position I've had, I learned a lot. ... We were able to take that program from day one and improve it all the way through to where now they're competing for championships. I feel good for all that."
CMU's record in four-year blocks from twenty years ago to today:
Mike Debord presided over the worst four-year stretch in Central Michigan's history at a program with a history of success in the MAC. He was placed in a position where success was eminently possible against a set of coaches that, while good, are not generally of the caliber found in BCS conferences. He failed totally. In no way can you describe his tenure at Central Michigan as anything other than a complete debacle; the culture Brian Kelly walked into was the one where six guys got in serious trouble for a murder charge and Kelly, in an attempt to defend his players, said something unwise about a "culture of violence" said players were raised in.
Right, this thing. NDNation swiped an enormous post from an Iowa board about the Michigan situation that many people have forwarded to me as something of interest. It is of interest, as I believe the story relayed in it is mostly accurate from what other people have told me: Ferentz was the strongly preferred choice of Carr once it became clear that the captain of SS Spectacular Failure was not a viable option and that the animosity between Carr and Miles was real and lingering.
After this is all done I'll put together what I think happened behind the scenes -- totally speculative, of course.
Go to the basketball game and tune out for a couple hours and you come back to a dozen emails about this:
LSU athletic director Skip Bertman confirmed Wednesday night through spokesman Herb Vincent that his Michigan counterpart, Bill Martin, has officially requested permission to speak with Les Miles about becoming the next coach of the Wolverines.
These things rarely become public unless they're in the bag, so this is a strong indication Miles is a done deal. LSU is promising a counter-offer but unless they can suddenly be the program Bo built, it is unlikely to matter.
A significant number of people have sent in the same story: there is an old guard at Michigan strongly opposed to Miles' candidacy, while younger folk, big money donors, and those not as closely connected to the current regime support it. I get stuff from people on side A skeptical about Miles' chances; I get stuff from people on side B saying it's done. Like, done-done-done and going to be announced Monday. I lean towards the latter, and expect Miles will be the guy in a few days.