MGoPodcast 6.9: Seven Times Three
1 hour, 9 minutes.
[Eric Upchurch]
GAME STUFF WE GUESS?
Amongst scattered references to actual football we chat about stakes and Hoke standing up for himself, or not.
TOP SEVEN!
Ace and I run down our top seven somewhat realistic candidates, with controversial Les Miles omission (or inclusion, depending on your point of view) after a rather lockstep top three.
TALKING BIG TEN WITH JAMIEMAC
We burn through the events in the league quickly and then get Jamie's top seven.
MUSIC
"Across 110th Street"
"Dracula's Wedding," Andre 3000
"Boxcar," Shovels & Rope
THE USUAL LINKS
October 27th, 2014 at 4:30 PM ^
if for no reason other than likening Dantonion to Sauron.
October 27th, 2014 at 4:45 PM ^
What....no love for Jeff Tedford? I thought all future coaching searches all had to include Gruden and Tedord? I'm disappointed....
October 27th, 2014 at 4:59 PM ^
Time to dust off the ole Flight Aware website?
I'll hang up and listen for your answer.
October 27th, 2014 at 5:36 PM ^
Harbaugh and Mullen 1-2, sure no problem. I just totally don't see Gundy over Patterson or Les Miles at 3.
Les is getting old but has a much better resume and he'd coach until his deathbed at Michigan. The old types who don't want him are precisely the ones that have run this program into the ground; they undermined RRod at every turn, and pushed and swooned for Hoke; they've proven that they will hurt Michigan to get what they want. They're a festering sore that need to be cut out entirely.
Patterson, the only real concern is when he moved to the Big XII, but if you look at his recruiting rankings... he came into the Big XII with worse talent than just about every other team in the conference. I don't put this on Patterson; It's damn hard to recruit at a high level in the Mountain West. Not surprisingly, his recruiting classes improved instantly when TCU joined the Big XII. This season is basically the first season where most of his roster is Big XII-level recruits, and lo and behold, he's back to dominating ways. There is no question in my mind that, when not saddled with inferior recruits, Patterson is among the best in the business. In fact, his star has already eclipsed Gundy, and frankly you can expect that to remain true.
Gundy behind Patterson and Miles, for sure.
October 27th, 2014 at 6:55 PM ^
I am a big fan of Patterson but there is zero reason for him to move. First he is in a power 5 conference. Second he is not buried behind perennial powers at TCU as he would be in the Pac 12 or SEC. Third, he is in a recruiting hotbed in Texas/the south. Yes you can argue someday Texas will be back and the Texas Oklahoma situation is a roadblock but you can say the same here for say Oho State and Penn State or whatever. He has built a program from scratch and is in a favorable conference to go double digit wins all the time and hit the playoffs every 3-4 years. No different than the Big 10 or ACC. Very differen tthen the Pac 12 or SEC right now.
Mullen you can make that case - esp in the West (I could make the case a coach in the East has an easier shot). A guy like Graham you can say has the same issues - USC, UCLA, a revamped Arizona in his own division, and Oregon/Stanford on the other side of the conference. Also not in a recruiting hotbed.
Patterson realistically I think has the least reason to move of any major candidate and I would say Gundy is very similar.
And I am not as high on Gundy as others when looking at some advanced metrics. All offense, no defense. Patterson and Graham and Miles at least make a nod to defense if not having dominating ones. We need to return to an era of top end defense here.
October 27th, 2014 at 7:22 PM ^
The "Guys we have a decent shot at" list isn't very good. Basically it's Jim Harbaugh, Les Miles, John Harbaugh, and then a bunch of coordinators or huge risks at crap schools. Before we go that route, I'd definitely give guys like Patterson and Mullen a phone call. No, they're not very likely, but you can always offer them more money at a more prestigious school and see if the conversation goes anywhere. For example, Mullen makes $3.2. Patterson and Gundy make $3.5. If we offered these coaches $5.5, would their schools match? Definitely something I'd want to inquire about before I get down into the Fitzgeralds and Schianos and the coordinators.
October 27th, 2014 at 5:45 PM ^
Listen to Ace & Brian bumble through the reasons why Mullen would leave Miss State to come to Michigan (around the 23 min mark).
- "It's really hard (to win at Miss St)" - Winning at Michigan is REALLY hard too. No natural recruiting backyard, hostile media, negative fans, difficult academics, irrational off-field expectations, etc.
- Lots of seniors make this a "once a generation" opportunity to take "a big pay day" - Brian rightfully disputes the assertion that Michigan will outpay Miss State.
- Hard to sustain success given "support around him" including facilities - have you SEEN MSU's facilities? http://www.hailstate.com/PhotoAlbum.dbml?&PALBID=624848&DB_OEM_ID=16800
- Michigan's "a bigger job"
Michigan is more prestigious, yes, but what does it matter? Miss has a strong tradition too. More importantly, they play in a better conference that produces more NFL talent. They don't have to fly all over the country to recruit. Their fans like them. Their media is not out to get them. Their weather is better. Their are no academic hurdles to stress about. Nobody is going to expect them to apologize for a damn spike on the field -- their fans ring cowbells all game long!
A Mississippi state fan has a stronger case than a Michigan fan. AND, they probably pay (their players) a lot more.
The funny thing is that Brian's been bemoaning/bad-mouthing Mississippi for a long time. Recruits seem to want to go there but this is viewed as being inexplicable. It shouldn't be. Every recruit who has chosen them over Michigan has been right (from the football side anyway, which is presumably the main issue for elite recruits.)
Mullen has a good thing going at MSU. There's nothing stopping them from stepping up to the next echelon like TAMU, Auburn, and LSU have done. Things change quickly but there's nothing that prevents them from being a perrenial top 10 team there under Mullen. Nothing works against him anymore than it works against Saban, Malzhan, Freeze, or Sumlin. It won't be easy, but guess what - topping MSU, Wisconsin, PSU, and OSU from Michigan isn't easy either.
October 27th, 2014 at 6:04 PM ^
I was with you until the last paragraph.
"Mullen has a good thing going at MSU. There's nothing stopping them from stepping up to the next echelon like TAMU, Auburn, and LSU have done. Things change quickly but there's nothing that prevents them from being a perrenial top 10 team there under Mullen. Nothing works against him anymore than it works against Saban, Malzhan, Freeze, or Sumlin. It won't be easy, but guess what - topping MSU, Wisconsin, PSU, and OSU from Michigan isn't easy either."
Nothing's stopping Mullen... EXCEPT Alabama, Auburn, LSU, TA&M, and Ole Miss....and Saban, Miles, Malzahn, Freeze, and Sumlin.
The idea that that "MSU, Wisconsin, PSU and OSU" somehow compare to that murderers row is laughable at best. PSU is awful right now, and Wisconsin isn't even in our division. If you're going to include teams we only play sometimes... Miss St sometimes faces Florida, Georgia and South Carolina in the other division. There's no way around it; the simple fact is that Mullen would have a FAR easier annual slate at Michigan and a chance to establish the type of dynasty that would be virtually impossible at Mississippi State.
October 27th, 2014 at 6:39 PM ^
That there's nothing institutionally that make the other SEC schools better than Miss St. There's no reason they can't BE part of the murderer's row.
If you want to argue "it's too hard" -- fine, but by that logic Nick Saban should be running for cover to go to Iowa now that Sumlin, Malzhan, Freeze, and Sumlin are putting up such a fight.
The heirarchy of the Big10 is more established than the hierarchy of the SEC. Ohio State has it's backyard. MSU has exerted it's in-state superiority. Wisconsin has the corner on smashmouth power football machine. Penn State can go toe-to-toe with Michigan on recruting to tradition.
The SEC is more jumbled because it's JUST about football, and football results are fluid. Miss State could EASILY pass LSU and TAMU in the program power rankings - not long ago it was they who struggled.
I guess that's the gist of my argument. Treating the hierarchy of today, let alone yesterday, as entrenched is a mistake. Sure, OSU and Alabama show no signs of letting go of their turf, but Miss State is on their heals right now in a way that Michigan is not. So would you be near the top of the SEC or maybe near the top of the Big10?
October 27th, 2014 at 8:03 PM ^
Also the "lack of facilities" meme at Miss State is just that - a meme. On one of the Mullen threads someone posted the $100M in athletic spending (which in the south means nothing but football) with photos and it sure looked no different than anything we have up here.
There are plenty of reasons for Mullen to leave but "lack of facilities" is just a simplistic take without doing the homework. It's a "This is Michigan fergodsakes" line of thinking.
October 27th, 2014 at 8:16 PM ^
I posted a link to photos of the MSU football facility earlier. It's at least as nice as Schembehler.
I've also seen salary raised as a UM advantage, but MSU will match UM if Mullen keeps it up. There seems to be an assumption that we can outspend anyone but it's never happened and there's no evidence to support that it will. We make a lot of money - we also spend a lot on things that aren't football.
So, the purported Michigan advantages have been knocked down to a) prestige, b) recruiting potential, and c) less competion.
- Prestige is not tangible and is disintegrating as we speak. MSU's can catch up just as LSU, FSU and Oregon have.
- Recruiting is not convincing. Ole Miss has better recruiting over the last couple years than Michigan and MSU can easily do the same. MSU currently ranks in the top 15. Where do you think they'll be if they win a national title? Being in the south is a huge advantage here.
- Competition is easier, but what kind of an elite coaches backs away from a tough league to go to an easier league?
Objectively MSU is a better job. That's why we need someone with a UM connection or someone for whom this job is destination. Mullen doesn't qualify.
October 27th, 2014 at 9:09 PM ^
The point is that there are a lot more elite football schools in the SEC West. The Podcast said it well - Mullen loses a bunch of players this year and it is unlikely he can keep Mississippi State at the top. Any conference with 5 elite programs, you're going to struggle to stay at the top every season. Even Alabama struggles to stay atop the division, and Saban may be the greatest college coach of our generation. If he comes to Michigan, it would be much easier to maintain dominance. Hell, we saw Lloyd Carr (who was NOT a fantastic coach) turn this conference into the big 2 little 10. Michigan State does not have the tradition and cannot maintain its spot if Michigan improves. Even now, we out-recruit them. That's pretty much proof positive any top coach will have the necessary talent to beat MSU more often than not.
Your point is solid that we don't want a guy who runs away from a challenge. However, like I said, a $2M pay increase is quite a reason in and of itself. You suggest these schools will all match, but without any proof. Mississippi State, TCU, Oklahoma State... these schools have likely never considered paying $5-6M for a football coach because they're not really football factories like Florida or Alabama or Notre Dame. I don't adopt the defeatist attitude that "aw well they'll probably match so why bother trying." Make these schools make the difficult decision; make that AD go to the Regents and say "hey guys, I wanna double my head coach's pay" and get ridiculed by the academics. In the end, the AD may up his coach's pay by $2M, but there's always a chance he won't.
In the end, I agree with you that these candidates (Mullen, Patterson, Gundy) are long shots, but I think you are dismissing their candidacy just a bit too glibly. At the very least, they're definitely worth taking seriously.
October 28th, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^
"elite football schools" change. I think other fanbases know this better than we do.
I see no reason why MSU can't stay on top of UM - look at the way the top in-state recruits are starting to flee. Tradition only matters so much, and often not at all to an 18 year old.
I think it's more likely Mullen can keep MSU on top than turn UM around. UM won't be outpaying an SEC team, as Brian pointed out. If he's good enought to get offered the M job without any ties here, he's good enough to get paid SEC money. We're not talking about Vanderbilt here, this is the #1 team in the country with a pretty good tradition and great recruiting backyard.
Michigan can offer Mullen, I wouldn't have any problem with that, I'm just saying it's unlikely to work. That's not defeatist, because I have zero power over this situation. It's an observation and a request for objective sanity.
October 27th, 2014 at 6:41 PM ^
for Mark Stoops.
Mullen's ALREADY at the top of the SEC. What does he have to gain at UofM? Far less then he has to lose.
October 28th, 2014 at 10:55 AM ^
He also has ties to Urban Meyer so maybe he wants a shot at competing against him in the greatest rivalry in college football. Sure there is risk, but some people want a challenge.
October 28th, 2014 at 12:13 PM ^
Which is why I don't buy it as an argument. Is a potential shift to the Big10 easier or a bigger challenge?
Maybe he has a grudge against Urban, but even if it exists, I doubt it's enough for him to go from the best conference in the country to... not.
Mullen would be taking a huge risk, while the potential gain is pretty insignificant.
October 27th, 2014 at 5:48 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 27th, 2014 at 6:10 PM ^
October 27th, 2014 at 6:42 PM ^
October 27th, 2014 at 6:36 PM ^
I've haven't listened, and IDK if I can. At this point just reading the recaps gets my blood boiling to the point where I have to step away from the laptop and come back when I can see straight again.
It would be great to go for a long run while listening tho...
October 27th, 2014 at 6:38 PM ^
- Harbaugh either one
- Dan Mullen
- Mark Stoops
- Mike Gundy
- Pat Fitzgerld
- Chris Petersen
- Craig Bohl
I am real high on Mark Stoops I feal he can be a real good long term coach for us. I feel that after these guys we might need to get a coordinator.
October 27th, 2014 at 6:47 PM ^
Whatever your view is of Dan Mullen can we stop saying he has strong Midwest ties because he was born in PA? Strong Midwest ties has to do with relationships of coaches in the Midwest, OH/PA/IL wherever. His last stop in the Midwest was a 2 year gig with Urban at Bowling Green way back in the day. He was at Utah with urban, then florida with Urban, then has been at Miss State for 6 years. He is a lot more "ties" in the south at this point than the Midwest.
A guy like Charlie Strong who was NOT born in PA has a lot better ties to the Midwest at this point by virtue of being a head coach in a border state (Kentucky) for 4 years. He knows those OH and PA HS coaches way more than Dan Mullen does. I just find it lazy to say a person has "strong ties" to the Midwest because of where he was born or grew up. The advantage of disadvantage for Midwest ties is relationships. Mullen doesnt have many up here.
October 28th, 2014 at 8:27 AM ^
October 27th, 2014 at 7:05 PM ^
I still think you guys are nuts with Stitt as HC at Michigan right now, but other than that, I'm in general agreement. I don't know if you said why John Harbaugh wasn't mentioned, but he feels about as likely to me as guys like Patterson and Gundy. So I'll include him. My list:
1. Jim Harbaugh
2. John Harbaugh
3. Mullen
4. Gundy
5. Graham
6. Hermann
7. Miles
8. Patterson
I'm prioritizing "safe" with this hire (e.g., demonstrated success as a high-level HC), even if the guy might not stick around for very long. Graham is a little gross, but almost everyone on that list is either regarded as a dick (including Mullen) or seems kind of sketchy. If I'm AD, I'm also making phone calls to guys like Mora, Petersen, Helfrich, (Bob) Stoops and Sumlin just to be sure that they aren't interested before ruling them out.
October 27th, 2014 at 7:28 PM ^
::"I'm prioritizing safe hires"
::ranks a coordinator over Patterson and Miles
/hed esplode
October 27th, 2014 at 7:31 PM ^
That's fair. I just really like Hermann, and while I'd prioritize a safe hire, I think it's foolish to be absolute about things like that. I also really like Patterson. I listed eight guys because in my mind there's a drop after those eight guys (without including the guys we're collectively assuming won't come, like the ones I mentioned after my list).
I'll be very, very happy if we hire Gary Patterson.
October 27th, 2014 at 7:32 PM ^
I have not researched Herman as much as others have to see what he did prior to Urban Meyer at Iowa State, I might do that tonight but I am always wary of coordinators who are on the side of the ball the HC is famous for.
Urban is about offense and had Mullen and Strong on his staff. Strong was not on the side of the ball Urban and did great things at Louisville by year 3. He had a great defense at Louisville by year 3.
Mullen is on year 6 - yes difference conference but Mullen never had great offenses at Miss State for 5 years. You can't tell me a great offensive mind would not at least built a lopsided team like Mike Leach did where it scores 45 pts a game but gives up 60 or whatever. Or heck he could be like Sumlin at Texas A&M. So I still think Urban was behind the success of Mullen at UF. When Mullen spun out on his own he should have found a QB by year 3 and had great success on offense even if his defense sucked at Miss State. That didn't happen.
I dont know if Herman is like that or not - you'd be taking a big gamble trying to find out and I dont know if this program is in a position to gamble. if the next coach fails you lost a generation of youngsters who will never have known what a good UM team is while MSU and OSU have 2 of the top 10 coaches in the nation.
Patterson and Graham are way more sure things to me; I find it silly Graham is not listed as a top 7 candidate and a guy like Stitt is. He has no dirt on him like Miles or Gundy have - he just is career driven and has some bad divorces. Big fucking deal. Hell I'd put Kyle Whittingham who is a poor man's Patterson ahead of some of these guys being thrown out.
October 27th, 2014 at 7:58 PM ^
Went to look at Herman's data at ISU since I am now curious. He was there in 2009-2011. I'll compare to 2008 and 2012; the year before he arrived and year after. I'll use offensive FEI.
- 2008: 74
- 2009: 51
- 2010: 79
- 2011: 82
- 2012: 58
So where's the threat?
This is not Mike Leach or Rich Rodriguez or any offensive mind who knocked the socks off at ISU. Both Todd Graham at Tulsa and Sumlin at Houston in similar time frames had "total offense" (not adjusted via FEI) in the top 5 multiple times and FEI adjusted top 30 offenses multiple times. Both had at least 1 instance of top 10 offensive FEI at those schools.
I don't get Brian and Ace's comments about him improving the offense and having a fantastic offensive track record prior to OSU. It looks like a flatline essentially with the prior regime in 2008. Maybe they are using other statistics I dont know of.
October 27th, 2014 at 8:23 PM ^
That's interesting. Actually, his FEI at Rice in 2007 isn't nearly as impressive as his point scoring suggests it should have been.
I have him too high on my list. I think it's fair to question whether Meyer is behind OSU's offensive success right now. At the same time, it's also fair to note that Meyer could have nabbed a whole lot of guys as OC and he went for Herman. Unless he just wanted an OC who would stay out of his way, Meyer obviously liked something about what he saw from Herman at Rice and ISU. Other good things about Herman are that he's supposedly a terrific recruiter, he's running a type of offense that many of us would love to see in Ann Arbor, and whatever is happening with OSU's offense these days is clearly good (from #65 in OFEI before he and Meyer got there to #10, #3, and now a Braxton-less #18). And Mensa, dammit, which sounds really nice right now. He's also supposedly on a short list with Chad Morris for the SMU job, so others are apparently screening him favorably.
Still, I'm with you that there are questions. He definitely would be a guy who would require very careful assessment.
October 27th, 2014 at 8:05 PM ^
October 27th, 2014 at 10:13 PM ^
disappeared on this post's comments? Punishment for the @umichfootball @mgoblog tweet?
October 27th, 2014 at 9:05 PM ^
To say Stitt is like Beilein after Richmond isn't quite right. Richmond is a Division I program and Beilein not only took them to the NCAAs but won a game in the tourney. Stitt is like Beilein at LeMoyne (1983-92).
October 27th, 2014 at 10:49 PM ^
They have to bring in a big name…they need to hit a home run. I assume for a premier coach they are going to have to be willing to pay up to $7 million per season (offer an 80-100% pay raise for 6 of the top 7....$7 million for Harbaugh). This isn’t the time to mess around with no names. They just did that and it has been less than stellar. They also went the route of big name coach and that didn’t work out so well. They need a big name coach who treats all phases the same and has a winning record from a conference that isn’t basketball on grass (i.e. the Big 12…no Patterson, Briles, or Gundy). Money talks...Michigan has to show it.
1. Jim Harbaugh
2. Dan Mullen
3. Mark Richt
4. Todd Graham
5. Dabo Swimey
6. Jim Mora (the son…not the father)
7. Al Golden (seems odd, but he got blindsided by sanctions right when he got there and has still managed to make his teams bowl eligible (skipped 2 of them). Their wins have increased each season so far.)
Other: Les Miles, Pat Fitzgerald, Ruffin McNeil, Doc Holliday…if they cannot pull in one these 11 for some reason then there are coaches with some HC experience at the NFL level like Pat Shurmur, Hue Jackson, or Joe Philbin (assuming he is fired). Then there are coordinators with no head coaching experience….if it gets to this point they are screwed. There is Herman, Venables (Clemson DC), and Austin (Lions DC).
October 28th, 2014 at 11:54 AM ^
Thank you!
Most of my family are big State fans and it's pretty incredible how they can't be pleased with a great football program that whoops Umich and can go toe-to-toe with Ohio State. The little brother thing will never go away---the chip on Michigan State's shoulder is too salient and will take decades to erode. Very similar to how Michigan (or Notre Dame or other blue bloods) will always be overly entitled and arrogant---culture change takes generations.
"I'm aware that this bottle of bourbon is empty, but not fully aware"
Great line Jamie
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