ThadMattasagoblin

July 8th, 2014 at 10:05 PM ^

We'll be a sweet 16 team at least next year with Beilein. Walton and Irvin will make the jump and a bunch of freshmen will contribute extensively as they have in the past.

theguy49503

July 8th, 2014 at 10:09 PM ^

If Irvin can learn to put the ball on the floor and attack the basket and use his athletism to go along with his ability to hit the 3, watch out he will be a dangerous piece to this team.

Frito Bandito

July 8th, 2014 at 10:19 PM ^

This could be a scary lineup later in the season.

Walton/Spike

Irvin

Levert/Chatman

Chatman/Wilson

Donnal/Biefeldt

 

We really need either MAAR or Dawkins to contribute quite a bit next year. This is the kicker

 

LSAClassOf2000

July 8th, 2014 at 10:22 PM ^

One of the fascinating features of Beilein's offensive philosophy, as it has matured in these past few years, is the ability of players to assume at least a portion of the role of a departing player and, rather than miss a step, actually grow in the role. I see Irvin assuming at least a portion of Stauskas' role on this team and, if the numbers from last year are any indication, doing quite well in the process too. I have to think that Irvin will get some of the looks and plays that Nik did, and if he handles it well, he'll be a dangerous and productive player out there.

Double-D

July 8th, 2014 at 10:32 PM ^

Yes!  I think Beilein mentors that process throughout the year and then builds an off season program that helps develop that.  He gives them the vision.  Gotta love the program and the types of kids he is bringing in.  I have spoken to many college basketball fans that are not UofM fans and many like rooting for these kids.

Mr Miggle

July 9th, 2014 at 12:07 PM ^

but I think it would have been more so if some comparisons had been made to our 2012-13 team. That team lost about 50% of its win shares, factoring in McGary. I don't think 60% is some sort of threshhold we're crossing that sets teams up for failure. We're just in a position to rely on players improving and freshmen contributing, not so easy to predict. Also, blaming Indiana's poor season on their large turnover is only giving part of the answer. There was more wrong with that team.

tbeindit

July 9th, 2014 at 1:19 PM ^

Good point and that's certainly some of the stuff I raised in the article.  The only difference I would say between 13-14 and 14-15 is that there is a lot more in flux than there was then.  In reality, we only lost two starters.  Sure, they were the best two starters, but 3 other guys returned and you had proven bench options in Horford, LeVert, Morgan, and Spike and a "more ready" recruiting class as well.  Next year's team is going to lack a lot of that.

Also, not sure I ever claimed that the turnover was the only reason Indiana had a bad year last year, just pointed out that it's one of the major reasons.

alum96

July 9th, 2014 at 1:54 PM ^

There are going to be some struggles and some ugly games this year.  The team is incredibly young.  We have 3 upperclassmen and 2 are bench players.  There a lot of unknowns and it's a team that cannot absorb a Mitch type injury as last year's team somehow did. 

I still think what Beilein did last year losing a preseason All American center and winning the Big 10 by 3 will go down as his best coaching job ever the farther we get away from it.  Imagine losing Caris to injury this year for 2/3rds of the season?  That's the comparable as last year we thought at this time Mitch and GR3 (the 2 guys who turned down the draft) would be the 2 leaders - not Nik and Caris.

Mr Miggle

July 9th, 2014 at 4:31 PM ^

except the readiness of the freshmen. Last season we needed contributions from two freshmen, with Walton's being critical. This season we'll need more, but have six candidates instead of three.

While it's true this team faces more uncertainty, last season's team actually took a step forward after replacing a lot of production. It's very reasonable to predict this team takes a step back, but dropping them all the way back to 10th in the Big Ten is extreme. When an Indiana site does it citing those statistics, it looks like they are just making excuses for their own team's poor performance. Not saying you agreed with them.

 

Nolongerusingaccount

July 8th, 2014 at 10:45 PM ^

Overall, I'm optimistic but making the Sweet Sixteen for the third year in the row with as many early entrants as we have had will be very difficult.  Regardless, I'm looking forward to watching how the team develops.  

Qmatic

July 8th, 2014 at 11:09 PM ^

I honestly believe this will be the last year we see Zak Irvin. Expect for him Levert and Walton to create a backcourt that will be unmatched in the B1G (maybe the country sans-kentucky)

Double-D

July 9th, 2014 at 12:00 AM ^

What Beilein has done with an MSU program running at a high level  in our back yard is really special.   Izzo had a mediocre program until the Traylor rollover sent Mateen to MSU and the NCAA investigators to us.  Thats when MSU turned. (Much like Dantonio got his traction in the RR years)  JB on the other hand has fought to the top against an established program by getting special and undervalued players.  Now look at who he has on our short list!!  Keep in mind JB does not offer unless a kid visits and shows genuine inerest.  We were not getting these looks 3-5 years ago.  This program is still very much on the rise.....

http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2014/07/michigan_basketball_t…

1974

July 9th, 2014 at 7:00 AM ^

You put two partial myths on display.

1. I think Izzo is a drama queen with an inferiority complex, but he didn't get to six Final Fours by being a chump. I agree that the rollover "launched" him to a significant degree, but several of his key players (Zach Randolph, Shannon Brown, Alan Anderson in the past, Payne and Harris recently) were from outside Michigan. It's not like he fully locked down the state, either. UM managed to get Blanchard, Abram, and Harris, among others, during the dark era.

2. The Dantonio myth is even worse. He and his staff have had a few good seasons based on developing low- to medium-end Big Ten recruits. His 2009 class (which is before the point where you could really blame Rodriguez, by the way) is often cited as the "turning point," but there were at least a couple of highly ranked recruits from it that didn't pan out. If you'd really like to argue this point, cite five to ten instances of key heavily recruited players that chose MSU over UM and contributed to one of their ten-win seasons.

BlastDouble

July 9th, 2014 at 7:19 AM ^

You just agreed with him, I can do it off top by the way. Lawrence Thomas, Bennie Fowler, Darian Hicks, some lineman, some LBs, there I did it. Besides, the poster never said it increased his recruiting foothold.

Double-D

July 9th, 2014 at 9:34 AM ^

I am not saying they are not good coaches becasue I think they are.  The fact they are kinda dicks has nothing to do with it.  There is more to recruiting than head to head players.  Overall perception of the program plays a big role.  Mateen was not going to MSU.  He was going to UofM and Izzo would not have an NCAA title without him.

umumum

July 9th, 2014 at 10:46 AM ^

the Flint connection was already well established with MSU at the time.  Cleaves was giving us a look--just like we thought we had a shot at Magic--but odds are he was ending up in East Lansing with or without the rollover.

Pit2047

July 9th, 2014 at 1:38 AM ^

Next year. With Nik and Caris you saw flashes their freshman years and saw what players they could be, all I saw from Irvin this year was jump shots. I'm much more excited about Walton jump cause he really came into his own in B1G play and beyond, I think it'll be him and Caris' team next year.

Champeen

July 9th, 2014 at 8:20 AM ^

I couldnt agree with you more.  On one hand, Irvin was the most dissappointing to me last year because all he did was sit on the line and jack up 3's.  On the other hand, he was overly impressive at it. 

I recall one time late in the season when Irvin took the ball to the hoop hard once, and it was a thing of beauty.  It was the only time i recall him doing it all year which, with the minutes he logged, was horrible.

IF he can be more aggressive, he could be a star.  But IMO, Walton is the one who showed me a billion times more last year.  He did everything you could ask a point guard to do and more as a freshmen.  I think Walton will be the #2 guy on this team behind LaVert (who knows, maybe #1 guy!).

Also i want to AGAIN add (as i seem to do every month) that 90% of this board is sleeping on Doyle.  He WILL be our starting center, and be a very good one also.  He is a star in the making. He is very similar to Kevin McHale as far as post moves.  He has a big body, and is highly skilled around the basket, using his body extremely well (which 99.9% of high schoolers dont know how to do) and can use both hands well.

Ive said it a billion times (okay maybe 10), Doyle most likely will be the most productive incoming freshmen. 

 

Learn to evaluate these kids by watching as much video as you can, DONT BE A STAR GAZER.  I harped a few years ago how Burke should have been a top 25 ranked recruit, and Brundigde had no business being in a top 100, let alone top 300 (Brundidge was ranked higher than Burke EVERYWHERE) yet if you simply watched all their video feeds, it was clear to see who the better player was - rather easily.  This is the same case with Doyle.  Just because he is not flashy and powerdunk every time down the court (athletic ability is way overhyped in these rankings) hes not ranked high.  Kid is more skilled than ANY big man in the nation.  Bank it.

JayMo4

July 9th, 2014 at 9:25 AM ^

Irvin has to show me something outside of shooting before I'm making big plans around him.  Now maybe he will - I wouldn't be surprised given that he was one of the guys that stuck around in the offseason, and that really paid of for Nik and Caris last year.

Walton is the guy that showed a lot of signs, in my mind.  He was allowed to be deferential last season as a true freshman with Stauskas and LeVert handling the ball so much.  So the average viewer probably didn't pick up on the things he did well, and didn't recognize the potential to expand his game.  They might not have recognized how much he improved from November to March.  But Walton can get to the basket, can shoot reasonably well outside, doesn't make a lot of silly turnovers, and is a solid defender.  As the season went on, he got better at penetrating and making the extra pass - something that will be heavily valued with Nik's departure.  The game is going to continue to slow down for him (Europe will also help here,) and we're about to reap the rewards.  I like DW a lot.

I'm also in full agreement on Doyle.  You saw the same things scouting him that I did:  Post moves, using his body well, finishing with either hand, etc.  Now there was a time where he was a 6'7" chubby kid with fundamentals.  Now he's 6'10" and in good shape with fundamentals.  I don't care what the recruiting sites say, either.  My eyes tell me this guy is gonna be a darn good player.

Re:  Burke/Brundidge:  I saw Burke play a couple full games in high school.  I was immediately impressed, even in the state title game where he had an off shooting night .  I was shocked at the time that he wasn't more highly rated, that we were able to grab talent like that, and that our own fans had no idea what we were getting.  Don't get me wrong; Beilein deserves every bit of credit for recognizing and developing his talent when others somehow missed it.  But I was never surprised by his success in college.  I firmly believed he was 5* talent before he ever got to Ann Arbor.

I never saw Brundidge play in high school, but a couple of games into his Michigan career I knew he had been way overrated.  It was plain as could be.  I took a lot of heat in a couple forums for saying so.  Of course, there were still people even after he transfered that were saying we really lost out because he was a 4* player.  It's like people fall in love with recruiting sites so much that they forget actual gameplay is what really tells you how good a player is.  They'd seen it with their own eyes and were still hyping him even after he left.

alum96

July 9th, 2014 at 2:05 PM ^

Beilein has recently said Doyle is 6'9 with long arms, not 6'10.  Not that it should matter much but let's at least be accurate.  And I don't know if this Gary Harris 6'9 or real 6'9 but that's the current view.

I am scratching my head at you guys who believe Doyle will walk in as a relatively raw freshman and get the start over Donnal who has been on campus for 15 months, worked with the team all year, etc.  Doyle - by his coach's own comments - has not played a superior brand of player where he lives.  Most of the guys he is playing are 6'5 football players - so they will be good athletes but not exactly great basketball players.  He has barely played guys his own height - he got double and triple teamed per his coach but again by guys he had 3-4 inches on all the time. He basically avoided the entire camp circuit so IMO he is in for a rude awakening when facing Big 10 caliber big men, especially those 2-3 years older than him.  Frank Kaminski versus Doyle will be scary.  I do like his traditional offensive game and in time I think it will be awesome to have that type of player, we have not had one in 5 years.  But the physical-ness of it all IMO will be a difficult adjustment and he seems like a guy who is going to pick up 2 quick fouls in a lot of games and be sitting due to that.

I am all for rah rah but freshman big men usually struggle if they are not named Randle or Vonleh.  I'm placing my money on Donnal as a starter and I think if Mitch had returned Doyle would not only not get many minutes, he would have redshirted.  

Hope I am wrong and Doyle is freshman All American.

JayMo4

July 9th, 2014 at 2:55 PM ^

I never said Doyle would be an All American this year.  I didn't even say he'd start over Donnal (they may well be on the floor at the same time in some cases.) I just think he's going to be very good for Michigan at some point.  I don't think he's the project he's made out to be.

Frank Kaminski vs Doyle will be scary?  Kaminski vs almost anyone is scary, if you didn't see what he did to us last year or how well he played in March.  There's a reason why Wisconsin is the heavy Big 10 favorite.  If we're going to measure our freshmen based on how well they'd do right now vs a first team All American-type player, we're going to wind up feeling awfully pessimistic.

WFDEric

July 9th, 2014 at 10:34 AM ^

How often did you see Nik drive the lane his freashmen season? He was nothing more than a shooter. Irvin never got a chance to come off a pick and roll because that wasn't his job last year. 

I agree with you about Walton as well. He showed so much growth though out the season. I believe Walton, Irvin, and Levert have the potential to be better than Nik, Levert, and Robinson as the big 3 for the team. 

Irvin can shoot the 3 like Nik. Walton can drive the lane and will be very good coming off pick and rolls. Levert is just flat out better than Robinson at just about everything other than dunking. 

What we need is a freashmen who can be that 6th man Irvin was last year.

JayMo4

July 9th, 2014 at 11:15 AM ^

Short memories.  Obviously Stauskas didn't get as many touches as a freshman, so the raw number of times won't be as high.  But Nik did drive the ball as a freshman.  He was a little more prone to pick up a charge or turn it over his first year, but he's always been an aggressive player that way.  He's never been just a shooter - if you saw any of his high school games (I watched a couple) he was taking it to the hole back then as well.

I'm not saying Irvin won't continue to improve or that he's incapable of driving to the basket.  But let's not shortchange Stauskas to make a point.

alum96

July 9th, 2014 at 2:03 PM ^

JayMo is right.  Nik did drive the hole - hence the "not just a shooter" meme which started his freshman year, not last year.  Zak almost never did - not to say he cannot.  He did twice or three times that I can remember in the tourney after doing it maybe four-five times all regular season.

I doubt in HS he just sat in the corner and just jacked 3s.  He had a role, he did it.  And this year I expect him to drive a lot more.  But to say Nik barely did it as a freshman is wrong - Nik made quite a few drives to the hole and many here were surprised because we thought thought Nik was more of a player that Zak looked like last year.

alum96

July 9th, 2014 at 1:49 PM ^

Dont think offense will be an issue with this team.  It never is with Beilein's system and the type of players we now have.  Think it will be defense.  Especially when the subs are in.  Also big man fouls will be an issue.  I can see this team forced to play small a lot as "rookie" big men in the Big 10 get into foul trouble a lot.

Sweet 16 would be an accomplishment this year IMO as we lost something like 60% of production and our best interior defender in Morgan.

That said I expect a team which will be far better in February than it was in December... as we are fortunate to have the right staff in place in this program.

kehnonymous

July 9th, 2014 at 2:10 PM ^

We might very well take a step back in 2014-15 because all but 1 of our bigs are freshmen and Stauskas was a historically elite offensive talent, but if we retain Walton and either LeVert or Irvin (or both?) for 2015-16?

I'm not even being a homer here but I will honestly feel bad for the rest of the B1G except the Wisconsin buzzcuts because f. those guys.