WSJ: Coaches Turn It Around in Year Three

Submitted by BlueCE on

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704702304575403442183854362.html?mod=ITP_marketplace_4 (pay wall)

Cool article about how coaches tend to find their success in their third year.  The article said that out of all the teams with a coach going into the third year Nebraska is the most likely to break out (almost won B12 last year), followed by Arkansa (Mallett) and then Michigan (we are finally not starting a new QB).

 

I am expecting an 8-4, a bit worried about the D.

MGoDC

August 2nd, 2010 at 9:53 AM ^

I fail to see how Nebraska is going to "break out" this year. They already made the Championship game last year, so by definition they HAVE to win the entire Big 12 to break out -- otherwise they are regressing or keeping the status quo.

I was impressed with Texas's QB in the game against Alabama, and Nebraska lost Suh. I fail to see the logic behind Nebraska's breakout season.

icefins26

August 2nd, 2010 at 10:07 AM ^

Nebraska will still be solid, yes they lost Suh but Jared Crick is going to be a stud at DT to replace him.  Baker Steinkuhler is due to be a suitable guy at DT too.  Their entire OL is back -- the only big question is at QB but they will definitely be able to run the ball.  Plus if you look at their schedule, they have a pretty favorable outlook until Texas.

MGoDC

August 2nd, 2010 at 10:16 AM ^

Not denying that Nebraska will be a solid team. I expect them to be good, maybe even very good, but they went to the Big 12 Championship game last season and came within a fairly long last-second field goal with a questionable time adjustment from winning it.

Furthermore, they finished ranked #14. If they're going to "break out" they better be a top-3 team in the country. Finishing #12 isn't a breakout year if you finished #14 the year before.

Monk

August 2nd, 2010 at 10:14 AM ^

First off, there were a few coaches that broke out in year 2, Tressell, Stoops won NCs in year 2 and I think Pete Carroll got USC to its first bcs bowl in year two as well.  I think the bigger question though is what exactly is a breakout year for Michigan, usually it would mean a bcs bowl because that's pretty much what the other coaches of big time programs did in year 2 or 3.

befuggled

August 2nd, 2010 at 11:39 AM ^

Some coaches do it earlier, some do it later, some don't do it at all. Barry Alvarez didn't have a breakout year until his fourth season, and Frank Beamer didn't really have one until his seventh season.

The definition of a breakout season is going to vary a bit, though.I'd define it as a season in which a team jumps to the next level, which is a bit broader than yours.

michgoblue

August 2nd, 2010 at 10:34 AM ^

I believe that we all said that last year.  Not trying to rain on that parade, but all things being equal, I liked it better when we came into the season highly ranked having other teams fear us. 

There is a definite intengible in being the underdog, but I think that the intangible of being dominant, to the point where traditionally crappy teams like Purdue, UConn, Indiana, etc. fear playing you because they know that they are outmatched is a far greater advantage. 

icefins26

August 2nd, 2010 at 10:17 AM ^

It sickens me.  I am a "fan" of Michigan Football on Facebook and every time they post something for people to comment on, I literally get sick to my stomach about how bitter and unknowledgable people are about Michigan Football.  As HUGE of a Michigan fan I am, I can acknowledge that 65-70% of our fanbase are completely clueless and piss me off.  Am I alone?

Louie C

August 2nd, 2010 at 10:57 AM ^

I stopped reading those comments a looong time ago. Most of those people are morons that have no clue about the game of football. There was a heartwrending story on there about RR visiting a couple that had just lost their baby, yet some stupid cocksuckers ( 'scuse my French, they earened that one) used that to launch attacks against him. I earned quite a few friend request from random strangers after calling those people out. I learned to do away with all things Michigan on FB. MgoBlog is leaps and bounds better than anything on there.

bronxblue

August 2nd, 2010 at 11:10 AM ^

Fan bases seemingly are 30% diehards and 70% bandwagoners with little knowledge of the team but just like to be identified with a "winner."  The problem is that this 70% never knows when to keep its collective mouth shut, and love to complain and attack others when the going gets rough.  That's actually why I try to stay from MLive, Freep, Facebook, etc. when it comes to UM sports - MGoBlog has such a knowledgeable community that I just feel like I waste my time trying to talk to fans at other sites who just spout off whatever they read online as gospel. 

jrt336

August 2nd, 2010 at 10:19 AM ^

Besides those teams, I think A&M could "break out." They certainly have an offense that can score a lot of points. If their D can even be near average, they could win 9 games.