Worst... draft(s)... ever?

Submitted by blueheron on

Worst... draft(s)... ever?

With the help of some historical NFL draft data (at the end here) from CBS Sportsline, I decided to try measuring (by proxy) Michigan's talent level the last couple of years. I'm assuming that it would be positively correlated with the total contribution of the team to the draft. Specifically, three first-round picks would obviously be a bigger contribution than three seventh-round picks.

I'd have to assign points to rounds to compare more complicated mixtures (say, two second-round picks versus four fifth-round picks). Time permitting, I'll do that at some later date along with a look at prior years where all future NFL draftees are known for a team. (In that case, there will also be a class multiplier. That way, I'll be able to compare a freshman Jake Long to a senior Morgan Trent.)

Anyway, a very quick look at last year's draft and this year's likely haul (Graham, Warren, maybe Mesko) was somewhat enlightening. '09's total number of players is the lowest in the last 10+ years. As well, note the rounds of Taylor and Trent. Also remember that Taylor didn't make the final cut at Indy. Now, I'm sure Graham and maybe Warren will go high. It's also fair to say that Carlos, Brandon, and Stevie will be just on the outside. There's no easy way to account for successful free agents (e.g., Tim Jamison and Houston). But, when the projected '11 draftees are considered, it's not a reach to say that the upperclass talent pool has been a bit shallow recently. Seriously -- I see no one (with the exception of possible early entries for Martin and Stonum) draftable other than Schilling, Mouton, and Webb. Wow -- I have to reach a bit to get to those. Let me know if I'm missing anyone.

This might make me sound like a RichRod apologist. Fine. I'm not completely sold on the guy and never have been, but he's taken some unfair shots. I do not mean to suggest that Lloyd "left the cupboard bare." It would perhaps be more appropriate to say that the cupboard was a bit bare when he left. Important arrangement of words...

One other note: It would be helpful to factor in the length and quality of the NFL careers. Steve Hutchinson, to take an extreme example, would be worth more than Tim Massaquoi (that is, even more than his better draft position might suggest).

2010 ? Brandon Graham
2009 4 Terrance Taylor
2009 6 Morgan Trent
2008 1 Jake Long
2008 2 Chad Henne
2008 3 Shawn Crable
2008 3 *Mario Manningham
2008 6 Mike Hart
2008 7 *Adrian Arrington
2007 1 Leon Hall
2007 2 *Alan Branch
2007 2 LaMarr Woodley
2007 2 David Harris
2007 5 Steve Breaston
2007 6 Prescott Burgess
2007 7 Tyler Ecker
2006 4 Gabe Watson
2006 4 Jason Avant
2006 7 Tim Massaquoi
2005 1 Braylon Edwards
2005 1 Marlin Jackson
2005 2 David Baas
2004 1 Chris Perry
2004 3 Jeremy LeSueur
2004 7 John Navarre
2004 7 Tony Pape
2003 2 Ben Joppru
2003 2 Victor Hobson
2003 3 B.J. Askew
2003 6 Cato June
2003 7 Charles Drake
2002 3 Marquis Walker
2002 4 Larry Foote
2002 5 Jonathan Goodwin
2002 7 Hayden Epstein
2001 1 David Terrell
2001 1 Steve Hutchinson
2001 1 Jeff Backus
2001 2 Anthony Thomas
2001 2 Maurice Williams
2000 2 Ian Gold
2000 4 Aaron Shea
2000 4 Josh Williams
2000 6 Dhani Jones
2000 6 Tom Brady
2000 7 Rob Renes
1999 2 Jon Jansen
1999 5 Jerame Tuman
1999 6 Tai Streets
1999 6 Andre Weathers
1998 1 Charles Woodson
1998 3 Chris Floyd
1998 3 Brian Griese
1998 4 Glen Steele
1998 5 Chris Howard

ldoublee

January 25th, 2010 at 8:40 AM ^

that Graham, Warren, and Mesko will get picked for sure. Minor has a shot. Ortman and Stevie will get picked up as UDFA's. Next year, Schilling will get drafted, and I think Mouton will have a better year, leading to him getting picked. He has a lot of natural ability that scouts will like. After that, I can't see anyone.

Big_G

January 25th, 2010 at 9:11 AM ^

I agree on Graham, Warren and Mesko, but I consider Stevie Brown a curious case. He's got ok size, good speed, and has shown the flexibility to play multiple positions. Yeah as we've seen, his best position isn't Safety but he has shown an ability to cover slots, RBs, and TEs along with playing close to the line. Definately would be an undersized LB in the pros but I wonder if someone playing the Tampa 2 or is looking for a nickel or dime LB might start sniffing around Stevie Brown. If he shows up good at the Pro day, you might see him go in the 6th or 7th round. I just can't invision a scenario that would have Ortmann getting drafted. He appears to be the type of lineman that someone claims as an UFA and sticks him on their practice squad for a year or two to see what happens. Has good size and ok mobility so he's probably worth a roster spot but just not sure if he'll test out high enough to get drafted.

Blue_Bull_Run

January 25th, 2010 at 9:43 AM ^

I like the overview you give. I agree in large part - RichRod has less NFL talent to work with. Only question is, does RIchRod even like "NFL talent?" It seems like, with RichRod, all the talk is about "system guys." I wonder how that translates into NFL success in future years.

Tater

January 25th, 2010 at 12:27 PM ^

And I'll take it a step further. I fully believe that it is the media who are responsible for the myth that RR "doesn't recruit NFL talent." This myth also contains a corollary: "If you play for RR, you won't make the NFL."

Now that RR is at a school where he has access to better recruits, he will start having former players make it to the NFL. As for recruiting, using a version of RR's offense obviously hasn't hurt Urban Meyer's recruiting. Of course, the negative recruiters don't seem to be telling recruits that Meyer's offense "won't get them to the NFL" like they do with RR.

People who continue to perpetuate the myth that RR "doesn't recruit NFL talent" should simply look at the athletes he has offered. As of now, he hasn't gotten as many athletes with NFL potential to say yes as, for example, Lloyd Carr did, but it's not because he isn't recruiting them.

modaddy21

January 25th, 2010 at 9:54 AM ^

Breaston would have been a perfect fit in RR "system". As would Percy Harvin, who was a high draft pick. There are countless others recently drafted that RR would have loved to have in his system.

Wolverine In Exile

January 25th, 2010 at 10:42 AM ^

Some of the "marginal" UM players (St Brown, Shilling, Car Brown, B Minor) for the NFL draft may get picked up by the UFL as well. I could see, for example, Stevie Brown getting picked up by a UFL team as a LB and using his time there to put a couple more pounds on and more experience as an OLB so that in a year or two he could enter the league. I also think Minor may be destined for that route as well.

Sean@MATW

January 25th, 2010 at 10:48 AM ^

Even though he is the greatest punter in the universe, there's a very good chance Zoltan is not drafted. In 2009 two punters were taken, which was high. 2008 had only one. The rest are usually invited to camps/signed as free agents.

bcsblue

January 25th, 2010 at 10:59 AM ^

2008 1 Jake Long
2008 2 Chad Henne
2008 3 Shawn Crable
2008 3 *Mario Manningham
2008 6 Mike Hart
2008 7 *Adrian Arrington
2007 1 Leon Hall
2007 2 *Alan Branch
2007 2 LaMarr Woodley
2007 2 David Harris
2007 5 Steve Breaston
2007 6 Prescott Burgess
2007 7 Tyler Ecker

Holy crap thats a lot of really good players.

HAIL 2 VICTORS

January 25th, 2010 at 11:34 AM ^

Holy Crap I cant believe none of these guys ever beat Ohio State! I really liked Lloyds time as coach and will always speak well and defend him. Although there was some bad luck involved with Henne, Hart and Long it was time for a change.

A Case of Blue

January 25th, 2010 at 11:10 PM ^

Will he get any tryouts as a kicker? He was capable this past season - not perfect, by any means, but pretty good for a walk-on who only had one season as a starter.

In large part I ask because kicking in the NFL - hi, Nick Folk and Mason Crosby! - is kind of at a nadir right now.