Worst... draft(s)... ever?

Submitted by blueheron on
Worst... draft(s)... ever? With the help of some historical NFL draft data (at the end here) from CBS Sportsline, I decided to try measuring (by proxy) Michigan's talent level the last couple of years. I'm assuming that it would be positively correlated with the total contribution of the team to the draft. Specifically, three first-round picks would obviously be a bigger contribution than three seventh-round picks. I'd have to assign points to rounds to compare more complicated mixtures (say, two second-round picks versus four fifth-round picks). Time permitting, I'll do that at some later date along with a look at prior years where all future NFL draftees are known for a team. (In that case, there will also be a class multiplier. That way, I'll be able to compare a freshman Jake Long to a senior Morgan Trent.) Anyway, a very quick look at last year's draft and this year's likely haul (Graham, Warren, maybe Mesko) was somewhat enlightening. '09's total number of players is the lowest in the last 10+ years. As well, note the rounds of Taylor and Trent. Also remember that Taylor didn't make the final cut at Indy. Now, I'm sure Graham and maybe Warren will go high. It's also fair to say that Carlos, Brandon, and Stevie will be just on the outside. There's no easy way to account for successful free agents (e.g., Tim Jamison and Houston). But, when the projected '11 draftees are considered, it's not a reach to say that the upperclass talent pool has been a bit shallow recently. Seriously -- I see no one (with the exception of possible early entries for Martin and Stonum) draftable other than Schilling, Mouton, and Webb. Wow -- I have to reach a bit to get to those. Let me know if I'm missing anyone. This might make me sound like a RichRod apologist. Fine. I'm not completely sold on the guy and never have been, but he's taken some unfair shots. I do not mean to suggest that Lloyd "left the cupboard bare." It would perhaps be more appropriate to say that the cupboard was a bit bare when he left. Important arrangement of words... One other note: It would be helpful to factor in the length and quality of the NFL careers. Steve Hutchinson, to take an extreme example, would be worth more than Tim Massaquoi (that is, even more than his better draft position might suggest). 2010 ? Brandon Graham 2009 4 Terrance Taylor 2009 6 Morgan Trent 2008 1 Jake Long 2008 2 Chad Henne 2008 3 Shawn Crable 2008 3 *Mario Manningham 2008 6 Mike Hart 2008 7 *Adrian Arrington 2007 1 Leon Hall 2007 2 *Alan Branch 2007 2 LaMarr Woodley 2007 2 David Harris 2007 5 Steve Breaston 2007 6 Prescott Burgess 2007 7 Tyler Ecker 2006 4 Gabe Watson 2006 4 Jason Avant 2006 7 Tim Massaquoi 2005 1 Braylon Edwards 2005 1 Marlin Jackson 2005 2 David Baas 2004 1 Chris Perry 2004 3 Jeremy LeSueur 2004 7 John Navarre 2004 7 Tony Pape 2003 2 Ben Joppru 2003 2 Victor Hobson 2003 3 B.J. Askew 2003 6 Cato June 2003 7 Charles Drake 2002 3 Marquis Walker 2002 4 Larry Foote 2002 5 Jonathan Goodwin 2002 7 Hayden Epstein 2001 1 David Terrell 2001 1 Steve Hutchinson 2001 1 Jeff Backus 2001 2 Anthony Thomas 2001 2 Maurice Williams 2000 2 Ian Gold 2000 4 Aaron Shea 2000 4 Josh Williams 2000 6 Dhani Jones 2000 6 Tom Brady 2000 7 Rob Renes 1999 2 Jon Jansen 1999 5 Jerame Tuman 1999 6 Tai Streets 1999 6 Andre Weathers 1998 1 Charles Woodson 1998 3 Chris Floyd 1998 3 Brian Griese 1998 4 Glen Steele 1998 5 Chris Howard

ldoublee

January 25th, 2010 at 8:40 AM ^

that Graham, Warren, and Mesko will get picked for sure. Minor has a shot. Ortman and Stevie will get picked up as UDFA's. Next year, Schilling will get drafted, and I think Mouton will have a better year, leading to him getting picked. He has a lot of natural ability that scouts will like. After that, I can't see anyone.

Big_G

January 25th, 2010 at 9:11 AM ^

I agree on Graham, Warren and Mesko, but I consider Stevie Brown a curious case. He's got ok size, good speed, and has shown the flexibility to play multiple positions. Yeah as we've seen, his best position isn't Safety but he has shown an ability to cover slots, RBs, and TEs along with playing close to the line. Definately would be an undersized LB in the pros but I wonder if someone playing the Tampa 2 or is looking for a nickel or dime LB might start sniffing around Stevie Brown. If he shows up good at the Pro day, you might see him go in the 6th or 7th round. I just can't invision a scenario that would have Ortmann getting drafted. He appears to be the type of lineman that someone claims as an UFA and sticks him on their practice squad for a year or two to see what happens. Has good size and ok mobility so he's probably worth a roster spot but just not sure if he'll test out high enough to get drafted.

Blue_Bull_Run

January 25th, 2010 at 9:43 AM ^

I like the overview you give. I agree in large part - RichRod has less NFL talent to work with. Only question is, does RIchRod even like "NFL talent?" It seems like, with RichRod, all the talk is about "system guys." I wonder how that translates into NFL success in future years.

Tater

January 25th, 2010 at 12:27 PM ^

And I'll take it a step further. I fully believe that it is the media who are responsible for the myth that RR "doesn't recruit NFL talent." This myth also contains a corollary: "If you play for RR, you won't make the NFL." Now that RR is at a school where he has access to better recruits, he will start having former players make it to the NFL. As for recruiting, using a version of RR's offense obviously hasn't hurt Urban Meyer's recruiting. Of course, the negative recruiters don't seem to be telling recruits that Meyer's offense "won't get them to the NFL" like they do with RR. People who continue to perpetuate the myth that RR "doesn't recruit NFL talent" should simply look at the athletes he has offered. As of now, he hasn't gotten as many athletes with NFL potential to say yes as, for example, Lloyd Carr did, but it's not because he isn't recruiting them.

modaddy21

January 25th, 2010 at 9:54 AM ^

Breaston would have been a perfect fit in RR "system". As would Percy Harvin, who was a high draft pick. There are countless others recently drafted that RR would have loved to have in his system.

Wolverine In Exile

January 25th, 2010 at 10:42 AM ^

Some of the "marginal" UM players (St Brown, Shilling, Car Brown, B Minor) for the NFL draft may get picked up by the UFL as well. I could see, for example, Stevie Brown getting picked up by a UFL team as a LB and using his time there to put a couple more pounds on and more experience as an OLB so that in a year or two he could enter the league. I also think Minor may be destined for that route as well.

Sean@MATW

January 25th, 2010 at 10:48 AM ^

Even though he is the greatest punter in the universe, there's a very good chance Zoltan is not drafted. In 2009 two punters were taken, which was high. 2008 had only one. The rest are usually invited to camps/signed as free agents.

bcsblue

January 25th, 2010 at 10:59 AM ^

2008 1 Jake Long 2008 2 Chad Henne 2008 3 Shawn Crable 2008 3 *Mario Manningham 2008 6 Mike Hart 2008 7 *Adrian Arrington 2007 1 Leon Hall 2007 2 *Alan Branch 2007 2 LaMarr Woodley 2007 2 David Harris 2007 5 Steve Breaston 2007 6 Prescott Burgess 2007 7 Tyler Ecker Holy crap thats a lot of really good players.

HAIL 2 VICTORS

January 25th, 2010 at 11:34 AM ^

Holy Crap I cant believe none of these guys ever beat Ohio State! I really liked Lloyds time as coach and will always speak well and defend him. Although there was some bad luck involved with Henne, Hart and Long it was time for a change.

A Case of Blue

January 25th, 2010 at 11:10 PM ^

Will he get any tryouts as a kicker? He was capable this past season - not perfect, by any means, but pretty good for a walk-on who only had one season as a starter. In large part I ask because kicking in the NFL - hi, Nick Folk and Mason Crosby! - is kind of at a nadir right now.