Wojo talks MBB Tourney Talk
If this team can pull the upset at Illinois, they are basically over the hump and a tourney bid (which I think is a done deal at 9-9 with an opening round win in the conference tourney) becomes more likely rather than less likely (they'd have to beat Iowa and just one of MSU/Minn./Wisc.). We'd likely be sitting alone in 4th place in a league that could very easily get 6+ bids to the dance considering the conference RPI and the weakness of the SEC, Pac 10, ACC, and Big 12 when it comes to producing tourney teams.
unless it includes a win over Wisconsin. The last time I looked at the RPI, Michigan didn't have a win over a top 50 RPI team (MSU is on the bubble of being a top 50 team, and may have moved in at this point). If they close out with wins over Illinois, Iowa and MSU, it's likely that Illinois would be their only top 50 win. At that point, I think teams that finished lower in the Big 10 standings would get in over Michigan.
It really would have helped to win one of the OSU/Syracuse/Kansas games.
Which teams would those be? if w beat Msu twice they won' get picked ahead of us. Ditto for PSU. That leaves Ill who we beat and Minn as the only teams that could possibly get picked ahead of us.
on the strength of their wins over UNC and Wisconsin. Depending on how Minny finishes, could easily see them getting in over us as well.
UNC and Wisconsin aren't exactly amazing wins. And the loss to UIC will hold them back. If they lose to us, they still have @MSU, @OSU, and @Purdue and could very well end up 8-10. No way an 8-10 B10 team jumps a 9-9 B10 team that beat them at their place.
it's possible that a 5th place team can get in over 4th place team. It's all about resume and they put more weight on quality wins.
UNC and Wisconsin are quality wins. Wisconsin is a quality win whether you like it or not.
Quality wins sure
But @Illinois and @Clemson are quality as well
And sure 5th can jump 4th place teams, but they have a hard enough time taking a team with a sub .500 conference record as is, they wont take one over a .500 conference team that owns the head to head.
And again, a loss to UIC looks REALLY bad. They are 7-20 and last place in the Horizon league.
Not to mention looking at how a team finished. We would be 8-3 in our last 11. Illinois would be 4-7.
I think our friendly pessimist is also overlooking the fact that if it ends up this way and we did not make it in, the B10 would only send 5 teams. That is fucking ridiculous. Unless you are putting PSU and MSU in over us which, if it plays out this way, we would have taken all 4 head-to-head games against the two. I would love to see a 5th place team jump a 4th place team when the 4th place team took both games during the season from them. If we beat MSU, Iowa, and one of the other 3, we are in no matter what happens in the tourney.
5th over 4th as an example. Head to head wins does not matter to the committee's mind. My point is resume, quality wins, matters more than head to head wins.
For example, team A finish 5th and has a record of 20-11. That team has 4 quality wins and 3 bad losses.
Team B finish 4th and has a record of 20-11. That team has 1 quality wins and 2 bad losses but beat team A twice in head to head.
Assuming that both teams has similar SOS and RPI. If it's for one spot for the last 4 in type team. The committee will take team A over team B because team A have better resume than team B even though team B beat team A twice. Team A has more quality wins and quality wins is weighted more than you think.
And I'm just saying that you are severely underestimating the importance of a .500 conference record
I have said none from the posts that you are replying.
How else do you rank the conference teams? If we are saying we are at 9-9, and Illinois is behind us, that puts them at 8-10 or worse. Unless you are arguing about a 5th jumping a 4th place team when they have the exact same record, which isn't really jumping at all.
That's not necessarily true. Whoever wins the game gets the head-to-head tiebreaker. Michigan and Illinois are both 10-3 OOC, so assuming they both finish 19-11, both would be 9-9 in conference, but Michigan would be ranked ahead of Illinois.
On that note, they would likely be ranked 4th and 5th, which means they would play against each other in the first game in the tournament. That would probably determine which one got into the NCAA tournament anyway.
Yes we would be ahead of them for seeding at that point, but is that really jumping a higher ranked team? At that point they are the same, and had to go to the 3rd factor to decide the seeding for the BTT.
conference seed or standing has to do with NCAA tourney?
Michigan has two top-50 wins right now, but that is sort of beside the point. You have to go all the way to number 34 in the RPI (Illinois) to find a team with more than three top-50 wins. People are making way too big a deal about this "signature win" stuff (yes, it would be a nice resume booster, but it isn't a requirement).
Lunardi has a number of teams in his bracket and just on the edge of the bubble right now with a lower RPI and fewer top-50 wins than Michigan has right now (and we play four top-50 teams down the stretch). He has the Big 12 getting 6 bids, the SEC 6, and the ACC getting 5. I don't think any of those are going to happen. He also has all 11 Big East teams that can even make a case for admission getting in. Even with that he has the Big Ten still getting 6 bids. Finish ahead of any of Illinois, Minnesota, or MSU and that puts us in the top 6. We're within a half game of each of those teams and play them all down the stretch.
Looking around the country and at what it would take to get to 9-9 I just can't see any way that a Michigan team with that record in this conference is going to be left out of the dance.
Clemson is top 50, aren't they?
They're #73 according to realtime RPI.
Harvard and MSU are on the fringe of RPI top 10. 2-7 against RPI top 50 isn't going to cut it for Michigan.
Did you actually read the post above yours by purplestuff? You have to go well into the mid 30's in RPI to find a team with more than 3 quality wins. Also, you are right, 2-7 isn't going to cut it. That is why everyone on the board is saying we need to win a couple more. If we lose out, I don't think a single person is saying we will make the tourney.
We have 4 RPI top 50 games left on the schedule. We are saying we need to be 3-2 and some are saying we need a win in the tournament. That means we would have at least two RPI top 50 wins going into the tournament and we would likely play another one in our first matchup of the tournament. 4-5 top 50 wins would probably get us in.
3 more bubble teams get in the tournament this year now that it has moved to 68, so we can have a marginally less impressive resume and still get in.
since there are tons of medicore teams vying for the NCAA tourney spot. By my estimate, there are 27 bubble teams vying for 7-9 spots which is not a good odd for Michigan.
the reason you all are forgetting is the commitee looks at how teams finish the year. if we were to finish 9-9 in conference with one big ten tourney win. that would be a 9-5 finish in one of the toughest conferences in america.
additionally, the Harvard win looks better each day, clemson is defending their home court, take out the indiana and northwestern home losses and we have only lost to teams in the rpi top 50, we have must better road wins than the 2008 team.
How i see the season finish
@ ill- illinois is struggling with leadership issues, have a much bigger lineup and a tough place to play. i give the boys a 25% to win that game.
@ Iowa- any big ten road game is tough but we will be ready to play and have a chip on our shoulder if we lose to illinois. 80% we win
Wisc- if they defeat purdue and penn state, they will be a top 5 team heading to ann abor. They will have a ton of confidence and will be eyeing the march rematch vs osu to decide the conference. It during break for most schools. Crisler should be packed and have an atmoshpere similar to duke. Wisconsin has lossed road games to MSU and Penn State so maybe we can get the signature win. 25% chance
@ MInn- without al nolan, there guards are weak so its strength vs weakness in the matchup of the post and the outside. I dont see a player on Minn who can mark Darius or a hot Tim Hardaway. Morgan plays big and i think we can win this game. We also want revenge for a loss earlier in the year. 50% win
MSU- season finale. if go 2-2 crisler will be jammin. The rivals will come to town and hopefully the saturday crowd will be mostly maize. MSU has struggled mightly and if MSU slips up before this game, then michigan will have much more to play for. 70% win.
Big Ten Tourney we will see what happens
have said that they will try not to look at last 5-10 games as part of their criterias because they want to look at the season as whole instead of last 5-10 games. If that's true, you may as well throw it out of the window because they're looking at resume as whole.
Yea, but when you are looking at a group of teams that are roughly equal (20ish wins, .500 in conference) are you going to take the team that finished the season 9-4 with 2-4 wins on the road or 4-7 with 2-4 losses at home?
Just not ready to do this yet.
If we take the next two I'd consider even broaching the subject of the tourney.
Would be nice to get a split out of the next two games. The last game against Sparty is shaping up to be a big one. This would be a nice game to bring in some recruits.
My bid formula is the following:
1. Beat both Iowa & MSU
2. Win one of the three others - Wisky, Illinois or Minnesota (preferably Wisconsin)
3. Win at least one tourny game
That would put them at 20-13 and squarely on the bubble. Win two in the tourny or two of three and I think they're a lock for a bid at 21-12.
And isnt it beyond awesome we're even HAVING these discussions right now? No way in Hell did anybody see this coming before the season started. What a nice surprise.
The run the last five games has been huge to reclaim a season that could have spiraled out of control. From 2-6 to 6-7 and squarely on the bubble (I think we're already there with a 58 RPI if you look at some of the 4th and 5th place teams in other major conferences) is a huge accomplishment in its own right.
If they win 2 of your 3 and we'll have a tiebreaker over MSU and Ill/Minn, there's not really any chance they finish lower than 5th, which means the probably face Ill/Minn/MSU in their first game. All are beatable, but we won't get the easy first win that you're hoping for.
The best opportunity for 9 wins + missing the bye is to beat Wisc and lose to Minn and Ill.
We'll know more about how the RPI shakes out if the team can pull off getting to 9-9, but I view the opening game in the conference tournament as more a "don't lose to a team that isn't going to the postseason and hurt your resume" kind of situation. I don't think an opening round loss to a quality team would be a killer if that is who we end up playing out of the gate.
I'm thinking we need 4 wins between now and the end of the tournament. 3 wins and a tourney loss to #4 might get us in, but 4 wins locks us, I think. 4 wins guarantees at least two wins on the road and at least 2 wins against top 5 teams in the Big Ten.
Illinois likely has two more losses @OSU and @Pur. MSU likely has another loss @OSU. PSU likely has two losses @OSU and @Wisc. That puts Michigan, MSU, and Minn at 7 likely losses, Ill at 8, and PSU at 9.
Wins over MSU and Ill give us the tiebreakers over those teams. Wins @Minn and against Wisc give us the tiebreaker over Minn, assuming that Wisc stays in front of or equal to Purdue.
MSU still plays Ill and Minn as well. So, there is a good chance that we end up 4th or 5th in the conference if we can win 3 of our next 5. Beating Ill would be huge, especially if they can beat MSU on the road. I don't think that will happen, but I could definitely see us getting 8 or 9 wins, finishing 5th or 6th, which would either give us a bye and a game against #4 (probably Minn) or a games against #11 and #3 (Indiana and Purdue). It looks like 7th is about the worst we'll finish right now. That would give us games against #10 and #2 (Iowa and Wisc), which still isn't a bad draw.
Or we can just win out, forget about the bubble, and be a lock to get in.
win out and win one BTT game. They're in. If you lose one game, you can still make it in. Two is bubble watch provided that they don't beat Wisconsin and Illini. Three is NIT.
you stop it. the fact that we are talking about this right now is exciting for people who support michigan basketball. and whether you want to admit it or not, michigan controls their own destiny, which is fine by me with 5 regular season games left. this is fun.
If you want to be realistic, that's fine. Let everyone else be optimistic if they want to, though. Besides, a realistic person would admit that their is a chance that they make the tournament even if it is relatively small. You're just being pessimistic.
The realistic attitude to take is to say this: we're not likely to make the tournament, but it's not entirely out of our reach. You're flat-out stating it won't happen.
Out of curiosity: what "realistic" outlook did you have for our game at Breslin?
'cause it sure looks to me like MfaninOH introduced the "Stop It" command.
Was it not realistic for George Mason to do what they did in the tourney? It's sports. Anything can happen. If you don't want to at least hope the team makes it, and just act like an ass to everyone else saying "no chance", do it someplace else, cause you obviously aren't a real fan of Michigan.
mfan_in_ohio =/= MfaninOH. I do like the idea, however, of having an evil pessimistic alter ego as a foil for my overly optimistic attitude. This makes me want to have a second user name as Evil_mfan_in_ohio. Maybe that user name can grow the goatee that my wife won't let me have.
Gotta love when people compare a football team to a basketball team to make their point. They are NOT the same.
To claim that this team probably won't make the NCAA tournament is fine. Pomeroy agrees with you giving UM the highest probability of going 18-13(8-10) with 17 wins being slightly more likely than 19. However compaing JB, the only coach to win 20 games at pretty much every level of college basketball to Charlie Weis is idiotic. JB is known as an excellent tactial coach and in case you hadn't noticed, we have beaten many good teams with him as coach(UCLA, Duke, Purdue, OSU, and MSU @ Breslin). So in conclusion, while this team probably won't make the NCAA tournament, saying they absolutely won't is just as wrong as saying they definitely will because they definitlely have played well enough to give themselves a shot.
Hey, nobody here is expecting us to make it to the tourney, but it is not unrealistic to think we can possibly pull it off. Come on man, its just fun to talk about.
Shun the un-believer...shunnnnn!
So winning at Clemson almost by double digits who is 17-8 and 6th in the ACC, or winning at MSU who almost nobody comes away with a win, or having an RPI inside 60, or playing the 15th hardest schedule in the country doesn't mean anything? We're 16-10, the 2009 team that made the tournament was 16-10 at this time, it's very possible. Never compare the basketball team to Jaba the Hut's team. I agree win against MSU, Iowa, then win one of the ILL, MINN, or Wiscy we are 9-9 in conference, while winning 1 game in the BTT and we're dancing.
the 2009 team was 16-10 with wins over Duke, UCLA and Illinois, and beat 3 tournament teams in its next 4 games (Purdue and Minny twice), while this year's team has yet to beat anyone who is safely in the dance.
True, but on the other hand, I believe our SOS is higher than it was two years ago. The bottom line is that we're not doing much differently than we were two years ago, which should give us some hope. As in 2009, the last five regular-season games will determine whether or not we deserve a bid.
had 7 wins over RPI top 50 teams and 2 over top 25 teams. And their SOS was 10.
We have 0 top 50 wins. I just dont think it's as simple as "win 9 games in the big 10 and you're in."
Wisconsin had the 42nd best RPI in 2008-2009, went 10-8 in conference, finished ahead of Michigan and Minnesota, had the 16th toughest strength of schedule in the country, and was a 12 seed and one of the last teams in the dance. The committee really, really wants you to have beaten some good teams.
Just remember how young this team is, and giggle to yourself. I know thinking about that makes me feel pretty confident about the future. I am still hopeful to make the dance, but the NIT seemed to be more than what a lot of people predicted for Michigan this year.
It's been a very good season and I expect Michigan to be solidly in the tournament next year. I just think people are assuming that .500 in conference gets Michigan in, and might be setting themselves up for disappointment given how the Committee usually seems to look at this stuff.
.500 in conference means a win @Ill, @Minn, or against Wisconsin and probably gets us a 4 or 5 seed in the tourney against Ill/Minn/MSU. Do you think that a win there would get us in?
We're at 58 right now w/ a SOS of 20 according to http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html, w/ games remaining @#34 Ill, @#147 Iowa, vs#17 Wisc, @#37Minn, vs#48 MSU.
If we "keep our head above water" by going 3-2, the increased level of competition will lower our RPI. The SOS component counts for 75% of the RPI, and a quick average of the above five games is a strong 57. Mid-majors aren't going to be playing a homestretch anywhere near 57.
At the very least, a 3-2 finish takes us to the B1GT with visions of sugar plums dancing in our head. Maybe not quite there yet, but certainly within reach with a strong B1GT showing.
You keep sayign UM doesn't have any RPI top 50 wins except for the fact that they do in Harvard and MSU. If they get to 9-9 in conference, it'll mean having beaten 2 out of the Minneosta/Wisconsin/Illinois/State contingent and thus would get us at least 4 top 50 wins. Add to that some of the other wins we would have just outiside this range(PSU x 2, Oakland, @Clemson) and the fact that the bubble is weaker than it was even two years ago, and you'll see that 9-9 probably gets us in the tourney.
I remember plenty of people (including an MGoPodcast, as I recall) saying there was little chance of even making the NIT.
And if we finish 9-9, we'll have beaten some quality opponents. Given the Big Ten's RPI strength this year, that should be sufficient - especially when there are three more at-large bids now that it's a 68-team tournament.
In any event, it's pretty cool that this is even a possibility. I would never have predicted this in November. I am very happy to have been wrong about this team's ceiling.
in 2008-2009, just a hair behind the ACC, and almost put 8 teams into the tournament.
If we finish with wins over Illinois, Iowa and MSU, it's likely we'll only have one win over an RPI top 50 team. I just can't see that coming close to getting us in the dance, even with the larger field.
The Big Ten is 2nd in RPI again this season. If they were to get 7 teams in the tourney again, we would basically just have to finish tied with PSU (better RPI and head-to-head sweep) to get in.
At the same time, the ACC, SEC, and the Pac Ten are behind the Mountain West in conference RPI. With Kansas State's poor conference record (4-6 with a game against KU next) and Baylor's low RPI (behind Michigan at the moment) and shitty OOC performance, I don't see the Big 12 getting more than 4 teams in at this point either.
Your reasoning makes sense, but if you look around the country at the bubble teams Michigan would be competing against for a spot this year I just don't see a 9-9 Big Ten record giving them any trouble on Selection Sunday at this point.
than in '09. Not by light years, but still better from top to bottom. Intangibly, I think that could make a difference as well.
Winning at Illinois will be extremely tough. We haven't won there since 1996, I believe. Lately, seeing us play there is like how we play at Madison. We'll have the lead for the entire first half and then see it slip away in the second half losing by 10 or so. Illinois has been playing bad ball lately but it wouldn't be surprising to see them finally get it together against us.
The Iowa game is cause for concern. They're a horrible team yet they play good at home. Wisconsin barely escaped there with a 3 point win last week.
We've won at Minnesota the last two years but they have lost alot of games lately and that's going to make them more dangerous when we play them.
That was the last year we won in Champaign. It's our longest road drought in the conference. But then again, we hadn't won in East Lansing since 1997, either.
I'm just excited at how well this team is playing, they've looked really good ever since the losses to Indiana/Northwestern a month or two ago.
The upside of this team is big, which not a lot of people thought before this year and winning with a classy guy like Belein running the show is very nice as well.
I see this team as a NIT team, and an NCAA bid would be a huge bonus. The "trap" I see a lot of people setting up for themselves is that many will be disappointed if Michigan doesn't make the NCAA. Really, though, there is nothing to be disappointed about.
I won't be disappointed if this team makes the NIT instead of the NCAA, because I didn't think they had a chance at either at the beginning of the season. When Manny and Peedi left, they lost 34.9 ppg out of 64.3; that is 54 percent of their scoring. Their two leading returning scorers, Novak and Douglas, averaged 14.4 points per game.
They are, although this is fluid and not absolute, starting a junior, a sophomore, a redshirt freshman, and two true freshmen, with a junior, a redshirt freshman, and a true freshman as their main players coming off the bench. Anything over .500 for this team looked like a miracle before the season started.
I know a lot of "fans" like to nitpick at JB's strategy, but I would consider him a strong candidate for BT coach of the year honors if this team even sniffs the NCAA Tournament.
I think the NCAA is more exciting and will be better for recruiting, but I think the NIT will give this team more experience for next year. They're a lot more likely to win some games and get more tournament experience for next year. So, I won't be disappointed with the NIT, because it's probably better to build for the future.
You have to weigh that against starting to make the Tournament regularly; which going 2 out of 3 years, and being "likely" for a third would be (no guarantee...we thought last Year's team was a Tourney team). Yes, they may win a few more games next year, and may be a step closer to a Big Ten run the year after. But if players want to go to the Dance, and that's where coaching careers are made. And our biggest need isn't development, it's talent. Big time players don't want to hear about an NIT run. The sooner we can show them we're a fixture in the NCAAs, the more likely we're able to start getting them.
Not to say the NIT is a failure by any stretch. You're still a step closer than the team that looked to be fighting to just make THAT Tourney, which is a lot closer to where I'd thought they'd be that a fighting chance for the Big Dance.
I don't think they beat Illinois, so I don't think they make it. But who's to say the games they couldn't close against Kansas and OSU doesn't work out better that day? (Though they were at home).
Frankly, if they could find a way to not bomb the rest of the season, and manage to get MSU at home that last game, it'd be a season to build on; and the latter, pretty satisfying.
3 wins (Iowa, Minny and MSU) and 2 losses (Wisconsin and Illini) to finish the regular season at 19-13 with 9-9 conference record. That is not good enough for NCAA tourney bid since Minny would qualify as a RPI top 50 win(MSU and Harvard is going to drop out of RPI top 50 IMO). Michigan probably needs to win 2 more games in the BTT to be assured of a spot for the NCAA tourney. The lack of quality wins is disturbing because selection committee wants quality wins moreso than SOS, RPI, records(both overall and conference).
4 wins would put Michigan to the bubble. 5 wins would almost assuredly put Michigan into the NCAA tourney(assuming that they don't lose in the 1st game of BTT).
I would put Michigan as a decent seed(probably #2 or #3) for the NIT.
5 wins would almost assuredly put us in assuming we don't lose 1st rd in BTT? That means we win out and end up 21-10 (11-7) and would GUARANTEE a bid.
We are 16-10. Going 3-2 would put us at 19-12, not 19-13.
If we went 9-9 in the Big 10 at the end of the year, we would be in so long as Wisconsin is one of those wins. That would give us that marquee win on the schedule that the committee would like. 9-9 without a Wisconsin W would make it close, but I don't think it would be enough without a decent run through the Big 10 tourney.
I would rather see this team get into the NIT. Yes, the NCAA is great. But if we are NCAA I think it's one-and-done. I think this team could win the NIT and young teams need more games not quick exits in tougher tournaments.
I'm sticking to my 20-win assumption to get in for sure but I think a top 3 finish in the B10 tournament with the recent run we've had could get this team dancing.
one and done at the NCAA tourney rather than winning the NIT. It's better for recruiting because you have showed that you went to NCAA tourney 2 of the last 3 years.
of the NIT for if we go. For now, even though the logic of "more games = more improvement" is certainly reasonable," I want to go dancing.
Either way, I'm proud of how these guys have performed this year.
The system and coaching should elevate us against similar teams in a one and done situation. It's only as you go deeper in the Tourney and start facing teams with big time talent that the advantage lessens.
The NIT sucks. It's marginally better than not playing at all, but in no way is it better than making the tourney, even if we lose in the first round. Case in point: we made the NIT a bunch of times under Amaker. It did nothing for us.
I think the magic number is going to be 20 wins. A 2-3 finish puts us at 18-13 (8-10 B1G), and likely requires 2 tourney wins to get us in. 3-2 down the stretch puts us at 19-12 (9-9), and 1 win in the tourney probably gets us home.
Anything less than a 2-3 is death, and anything over 3-2 puts us in, IME.
2-3 down the stretch would require a BTT title. They won't want a 14 loss team with an under .500 conference record with no to few quality wins.
The team has to take it one step at a time. Anybody in Michigan should try and make it out to Crisler for those home games as" the sixth man" could make all the difference. Whatever happens, this has been a very exciting season and a sign of good things to come.
will get six for sure, seven is in my eyes a 50/50 proposition. Minny is at Penn State this week, Penn State fighting like hell for one win to keep their "not going to happen" NCAA tourney hopes alive. Need Penn State to win that game. We have the season sweep over Penn State and assuming (possibly falsely) that M is going to win three more games, I see it as M v. Minnesota for that sixth spot if six is going to be the number, alot like 2008. Aside from M (arguably), Minnesota's schedule softens a great deal after Penn State. We need Taylor Battle to go all making every contested 23 footer he takes on Minnesota like he did on us, and then we need the game at The Barn badly. Illinois is a very important game, but not the end all be all. (Would be sooooo nice though, screw it, wear the maize unis)
9-9 in conference, win at Minnesota, don't get outlasted by Minnesota in the Big Ten Tourney, and HELLO 12 SEED!!! (Possibly hello 12 seed anyway if the Boston Colleges and WASUs of the world fall on hard times and Big Ten play looks impressive enough on the last weekend to squeeze out a 7th bid.)