That is definitely better than Mark Hollis advice.
this may be of some local interest
That is definitely better than Mark Hollis advice.
I appreciate the sentiment of the letter obviously as I want Trey to stay, and he makes a few valid points, but at the same time, it's not too convincing.
First off, I doubt how far Michigan went in the tourney will play any role in Trey's stock.
Second, he doesn't mention where those 11 PGs went in the draft. If they all were top 10 picks, then it looks a little different. Obviously odds are Trey will not be a top 10 pick so that may be a little moot, but still, if he's going to use that as a basis for his arguement, context would be nice.
"First off, I doubt how far Michigan went in the tourney will play any role in Trey's stock."
Disagree-- the tournament was his best chance for wide-spread exposure thusfar in his career.
At the very least, the further we went in the tournament would directly related to the number of people that watched a Michigan basketball game last seaon (including media and NBA executives).
Hopefully, Trey realizes the opportunity he has next season, and unless he's planning on slacking in the off-season, his situation is nothing like Jared Sullinger's
He was co-freshman of the year in the Big Ten - the best conference in college basketball and one that features regularly in national broadcasts, was an honorable mention All-American, and every reputable scout would tell you that Michigan goes as far as Trey Burke takes them. In other words, his skills have been recognized already. Further exposure is only necessary for mid major players, not those from a power conference from the Big Ten, and not for a player on a team that was ranked the entire season.
His skills have been recognized, but that doesn't mean his skills can't get a lot better. He's just not at an NBA level. Saying Michigan goes as far as Trey Burke takes them tells me that he has a lot of improvement to make since you know.. we didn't win a game in the tournament. When he got to the national stage, he was not one of the best players in the tournament. He probably wasn't even in the top 25 players in the tournament, and that's being generous. He just doesn't look like a pro level player yet. When you're 5' 11" you better be the by far the best player on the court against a MAC team if you want to be big time in the NBA.
He's not saying Trey's skills don't need to improve. He's responding to a post claiming that Trey needs more exposure to NBA scouts and executives, which is ridiculous.
It could also be argued that in a do or die situation he came up short. Going 5-15 for FG's, 2-9 on 3 pointers, and getting outplayed by DJ Cooper isn't the best way to show off your NBA skills.
Rational and real fans know that judging Trey off of the NCAA Tourney is a joke since he's done so much for this team. However, to an NBA scout who didn't know he was coming out until a week ago, I'm guessing the NCAA Tourney would be the first place he'll look, and not some game against Minnesota/NW
This^^^. He has also owned by Craft in the BTT.
He's just not ready . . . yet. Plain and simple.
We all know how well that worked out for maurice clarret. Exposure isnt the issue, trey not being NBA ready is. Seriously how can he think he can not get schooled by cp3 or his backups backup right now? Wake up kid!
I have trouble buying into that after watching KU vs UK. Top to bottom maybe, but nobody in the B1G could play w/ either of the finalists at the end of the season.
Kansas was EXTREMELY fortunate to get to the champ game. They should've list to Purdue, squeaked by NCSt, beat UNC without Marshall, and got outplayed by Ohio for 30 minutes...
IU beat Kentucky once and gave them the best fight any team did in the tournament. Kentucky did not play very well in the finals and still crushed Kansas. U can't say no one in the big ten could beat Kansas. It should have happened twice in the tournament.
This is just ridiculous. So you believe that NBA scouts and executives gather no more information on potential draft picks than casual college basketball fans? I mean if you honestly believe that Trey needed to go further in the tournament in order to gain "exposure" to scouts and executives then that must be what you believe.
I suppose they just go into the draft blind when they pick all the Euros, then.
Well that article had nothing but logic and facts in it so it obviously wont be a factor in his decision. Seriously though I heard today that one of the biggest reasons Burke's going to come out now is because of what happened to his BF Sullinger. Last year everybody had him as a top 3 pick and now his projected to go between 10-15 tops. My friend says the person whose in Trey's ear the most right now is Sullinger and his family and they are all telling Trey to come out now....that the downside of year two is far greater than the upside.
That's the word down here in Ohio anyways.
But trey burke isn't projected as a top 5 pick. Hes projected as a late first round, which I think we all agree is pushing it.
That is a great point, but I hope he (TB) sees that Sullinger made a mistake bc he was a top3 pick last year. Trey is at best a late pick (20-30) and at worst a late second round pick. In regards to that letter, I also think Trey will be measured below 5'11 since most college rosters are slightly inflated, which will hurt his draft stock.
Overall, the risk reward equation is more risk (coming out early) than reward (staying at school), which is entirely different than Sullinger.
I 100% agree it's crazy to compare the two but that's what the word is down here. That Sully and his family are telling Trey and his family to not make the same mistake he did and to come out now. And that Coach B is trying like Hell to convice Trey that the two situations are not similar and for him to stay but that the person who has Trey's ear is not an agent or a scout or even a coach.
It's his best friend from childhood and trust me that's a hard voice to overcome.
I grew up with the Sullys and good friends with them now and I can say with 100% confidence that this is not the case.
We will agree to disagree at this point then and wait to see what Trey decides and what he says when he does. I still believe when Trey makes his formal announcement that he is leaving (yes i believe that is forthcoming) he will point to Sully's drop in draft positioning as one of the reasons why.
Is it your contention that the family and Jared are NOT encouraging Trey to come out now or are you claiming they are telling him to come out for a different reason?
Yeah I would think that the Sullingers have Trey's best interests in mind and would be logical enough not to be pushing for him to leave. So assuming that's true, do you know any more details on who/what is influencing Trey the most?
Not really. I have just heard this now (the Sullinger-Burke connection) from WAY too many people down here with connections to OSU to discount it as simply being a crazy rumor. It may in fact be just a crazy rumor (time will tell) but it is all over the place here in Ohio anyways and sometimes where there's smoke there is fire.
Here's the thing. I personally think Burke has lost his mind if he comes out now and will definitely cost himself a boatload of money if he does. I myself grew four inches in college (6'1 graduating high school - 6'5" graduating college) so i know it is very possible for some kids who mature late. And the notion that Satch is purposively steering Trey to do something not in his best interest is just as crazy. He watched his son's draft stock drop significantly from year one to year two and it is not out of the relm of possibility that he would be concerned about it also happening to Trey.
That's all i got.
Why would the Sullingers be telling anyone if they're advising Trey one way or the other? How would something like that even leak? Doesn't make sense.
Not taking a side in this prediction battle but you realize you're talking about the same ohio that gave us 11W and drove Kirk Herbstreit out of the state for being rational? Additionally, they happen to hate us even more than they hate modern thought? Ohio fans have been starting rumors about us for ages and rolling with them, why would they stop now? Sometimes where there's smoke, there is indeed fire, but sometimes you're just in Ohio.
My credentials for such a statement...
With that said...I know Mr. Satch Sullinger would never tell Trey to go pro. Would he point out what happened with Jared? Maybe...but he wants both of those guys to get their degree. He values education.
Could TREY himself seen what happened to Jared --- THIS is the more likely scenario. I mean the guys are brothers. Why would Trey need to listen to ANYONE else? It was his brother/best friend who was a top 10 pick last year and is now borderline lottery. He saw that himself...he doesn't need, me, you, Mr. Sullinger or Barack Obama to tell him that.
Also, Trey is a little different than all of the 4 guys in that "group"...Jared was never going to come out last year. He just loves college, he's too goofy, he's loveable and enjoys being a student. IMO, he thought about coming back another year - but it just didn't make sense.
As for Trey, he's a little harder, he's more serious, we've all seen the difference in the two on the basketball court. Trey has never and will never have the time in college that Jared has had. He's just not the same type of personality. He reminds me of Derrick Rose personality wise --- I remember during this year's all-star game Rose commented how he was about all the dancing and goofing off during the starting lineups...Jared would be dancing, Burke would be standing there stone faced like Rose.
So if Burke comes back, it's a business decision, pure and simple. Now if you ask me...it's the SMART business decision. I think he can honestly make his way from the 2nd round to borderline lottery/definite 1st rounder, he's THAT good. But he needs another year.
In closing...the Sullinger's would never tell him to go pro. IMO, Burke's family doesn't want him to go. I just think it's a kid who really didn't enjoy college, doesn't feel like working and going to class another year, and saw his brother take a hit in the draft by returning. It's that simple.
With that said, a chance to go in the 15-25 range of the first round NEXT year should trumph all of those reasons.
Good post thanks for the info. I also agree coming back is his strongest business decision. And, if it's true that Trey really dislikes the Michigan experience that much it's a shame because it really is a nice place where a lot of fun can be had. I remember back in the day when Jamal Crawford was going to leave and caught a lot of flack too. So this isn't really a Trey specific phenonmenon. I think his pro opportunities are limited though.
I think it's college in general. And I didn't mean that he didn't "like" it...I meant that I'm not sure he thinks it's for him. The attention, the celebrity along with the work, the class, etc. I use the Derrick Rose analogy again. The personalities are SO much alike.
If Burke had to choose any college again, I think he'd choose Michigan or OSU out of every school in the nation. But it's college that I don't know is "for him." He's a pro at heart, personality wise.
He's not Tim Tebow or Tyler Hansbrough or Jared Sullinger...Trey is way more professional in his approach, way more introverted in his personality, and just not a "college basketball star" type person.
But like I said, it's just the smart BUSINESS decision. It wasn't terrible (attending college), it's not punishment, it's not torture. So suck it up, refocus, get after it and go accomplish more than you did this year. And this time next year announce you're going pro after you've lead Michigan to the Final Four and you're a First or Second Team All-American.
It's a no brainer, you make money, you secure a better future, and most of all you continue to play the sport that you love.
(sidenote…in my OP it was supposed to be *wasn’t* when referring to Derrick Rose and dancing at the All-Star game.)
Stop making Jared Sullinger out to be a good guy. I'm suppose to hate him, not like him. Tell me he punched a child or something...
The whole height thing is interesting, because there is a real chance he may grow next year. He is not even 20 right? It would not be a shock to see him grow an inch or two. A couple inches and he could push the lottery which is a huge difference.
That's a very good point I haven't seen yet. THJ grew something like 2 inches over the summer didn't he? That would make a huge difference in a PG. And I'm pretty surprised that Sullinger's dad is telling Burke to go if that's true. He always seemed pretty reasonable, and this certainly is not reasonable. You can't compare Burke to Sullinger. Very different players and very different situations.
Thats right, THJ did grow a couple inches from his freshman to sophmore year. Maybe the same can happen with Burke.
Talk to Russell Westbrook about what can happen after your freshman year. The dude turned into an athletic freak AND grew a few inches.
Dennis Rodman grew from 5'8" to 6'8" in college. Now that's a real freak.
But that's not happening here.
Wow I had no idea. I wonder what his game was like at 5'8. PG?
He wasn't a basketball player at that time. He didn't even enroll in college until he was 21 or so. The growth spurt was before he enrolled at Southeastern Oklahoma State, IIRC, not during it.
Sorry, but Satch Sullinger does not sound like the type of guy to get in Burke's ear about leaving early, and Jared seems like the kind of friend that would want the best for Burke either way. Doesn't make sense that they'd be pushing one way or the other.
When you consider all of these points, its almost preposterous that Trey would leave and not develop his skills, or at least develop physically one more year.
People are pointing to Sullinger's fall in draft stock after staying another year. I don't think it really compares with Burke's situation. In Sullinger's freshman year, he was the best player in the nation on the best team in the nation (before the tournament). There was really nowhere to go but down for Sullinger and Ohio. Plus, this year there are so many great big men unlike the year before. Obviously that last part could be an arguement for Burke leaving, but guards are generally going to be taken lower in the draft than the amazing big man class this year.
With Burke and Michigan, they are most likely to go up. Michigan has a top 5 class coming in AND (would be) returning 3 key starters. Burke has All-American and Final Four potential. He could be considered the best guard, potenially, in the country next year and that will only raise his stock. Sullinger WAS the best big man last year and like I said, had nowhere else to go but down. For Burke and Michigan, there really isn't anywhere to go but up. They haven't even come close to their ceiling...
EDIT: When I say last year, I mean the 2010-2011 season
Rational thinking here says the family and Trey Burke have to be aware of his draft stock. It's not hard to use the internets. Still, if he wants D League money then he'll be leaving.
I'm hoping for common sense to prevail but I have serious doubts.
This whole thing with sullenger telling Burke to leave just makes me hate Ohio even more now
It doesn't make any sense that the Sullingers would be pushing for Trey to come out. If anything, after the Final Four run that OSU had, Sullinger would be encouraging Trey to come back because Michigan would have a chance to do something special as well.
Satch Sullinger was telling his son he wasn't ready for the NBA last year (when he was a vritual Top 5 lock), but now you believe he would be telling Burke, someone who he sees as another son, that he is ready for the NBA despite there being little chance he would be a 1st round pick? Makes absolutely no sense.
If Burke decides to leave, it will be 100% his decision.
All I am saying is that I read something that sullenger was telling Burke to leave because sullenger hurt his draft stock by staying another year.
I hope and believe that trey will make his own mature decision.
If Sullinger hurt his draft stock so much, why did he declare for this year's draft?
There are a lot of reasons to not like Ohio, but please take what you read here with a grain of salt.
I just don't think it's a good investment into his future to leave now. I graduates with a cell and molecular biology major. I could found a crappy job with that major and avoided another round of schooling. But it's just not smart. Instead, I suffered through more grad school and can now make good money.
I think he comes back. Gotta have faith.
Bob knows. He speaks the truth.
it's quite conceivable that Trey could fall on his face next year and everyone here knows it. He was B1G player of the week how many times? Second team All-American? Killing OSU with an amazing layup?
By the end of next year he could be the fourth-most NBA-worthy guy on his own squad. With all of the holes in his game including troubles with the high pick completely anatomized by every two-bit analyst in town.
I know we want him back but people. . . it may well be the OPPOSITE of him having an over-inflated view of his prowess. . . worrying instead that he'll be the same height, buried by the weight of crazy expectations, and sunk in homework that he just can't put his mind to.
Personally, I sympathize. And I guess I'm not as well-off as some people here, but eight or nine years doing the thing you love in Europe for very good money just doesn't sound like failure to me. The only failure is not trying as hard as you can to do the best with the gifts you were given.
It baffles me that some people are so sure of themselves about this one, or could possible be angry at a 19-year-old who brought the team so much glory this year.
you think he should jump because he may regress and this past year was flukish? is that what you're writing? yet, you say he can play 8 or 9 years in europe. if he can't play, he's not going to last anywhere; not the nba, not europe, not the D league. even now, he's a likely second rounder with no guaranteed contract. what is he going to regress to next year?
"if he can't play, he's not going to last anywhere; not the nba, not europe, not the D league."
Do you really mean to imply that any returning college player who doesn't maintain his draft stock is therefore unlikely to cut it in any high-level professional league? So Kyle Singler isn't currently playing in Spain? Da'Sean Butler isn't playing in the D-League? Dominic James isn't still playing in Europe?
I'm sure there are strong arguments to be made that Burke's expected draft status/skill development/career earnings will benefit from returning to school. It just seems that many people here are unaware of what a strong argument would actually look like.
Are you kidding me?
When I heard that he was even contemplating it, I thought that there was a zero percent chance he'd leave. Now it seems like he will be going. The only problem is that there isn't a good chance for his success or a first round pick. He isn't NBA ready. I would say to stay until he's a Sophmore, maybe a Junior. However, he's probably thinking "What if I get injured" or "What if I pull a Kalin Lucas and not play up to my potential in the next year or 2?" So he's probably going to take the guaranteed money.
Maybe Trey just doesn't like being in college or in the Michigan program.
Consider your options carefully. Trust the input of those who have been close to you for a long time. Make the decision with which you are most comfortable. Ignore anyone (and there will be many) who criticize your decision. Your life, your call, best of luck either way!
All the best,
Hollis? You've been sneaking around MGoBlog since 2009??
I knew it. But when did you start using words again? U R bak n it!
Might as well throw in what I've heard. Buddy of mine works in the athletic department as a manager tells me that Burke REALLY hates school. Like a new level of hate for school. Told me he's leaving just to get out of classes and what not, doesn't want to put up with it for another year. Just what I've heard..
Doh, double post. Nothin' to see here...
"It's supposed to be unbiased --- it's by one of the editors on ESPN's WolverineNation (Bob McClellan)."
how does this make it unbiased?
2md round money is still money. Take it and prosper.
I am just ready to hear what he is going to do. If he goes pro I wish him the best, if he stays I will be excited. I just want to know one way or the other.
One factor that never seems to be discussed in these things is his legacy at Michigan. If he stays he will likely leave with a huge legacy at Michigan. Possibly one of the best point guards ever. In the short term that means nothing. But in the long term that gives him a place to come back to, Ann Arbor, and earn money when his NBA career is done. It's basically a long term insurance policy on his NBA career. Whether its on the radio, coaching or any other wide range of jobs I bet somebody would give him a shot if he stays. If he goes, his legacy here is soon forgotten by many.
On another note, huge kudos to Burke's family. It's nice to see a family giving their kid sound advice and not just trying to make money off him. This is a rarity in theses days.
Well, after tugging on our heartstrings like this, if Burke does decide to come back, he'll be a hero - and if he were to leave next year, he probably wouldn't face much criticism, since he'd have given us two years as the starting PG.
I first read this topic as "WIN: An Open Letter..."
The fact of the matter is that his draft stock will not rise, he is at the ceiling now. Most kids go to college as a stepping stone to the pros. Getting hurt next year means guaranteed money is gone. As far as I am concerned, I would stay in college as long as humanly possible. But athletes are different.
What a shock, a fan of an opposing school thinks he should go pro.
I don't agree that his stock can't go any higher. He needs to improve as an on-the-ball defender. We had problems this year against teams that featured dribble penetration. Burke also can improve further as a playmaker, especially when facing hedges on the pick and roll (which is a bread-and-butter play for almost every NBA team). He also could further develop his midrange game.
We don't play you in BB, so I care not in that regard.
Just saw a mock draft that has Burke going to the Denver Nuggets in the second round. It's just a mock so its going to change about fifty times but if he could land on a team like Denver I think he could actually contribute and stick around the league. It's all about the fit, and I think he could make a career in the league with a team like Denver.