Wisconsin game predictions

Submitted by oriental andrew on

So just looked up a couple of sites for predictions on the upcoming game against Wisconsin.

Kenpom says U-M has a 29% chance of winning, and calls UW 62 - UM 57.  

RealTimeRPI basically calls it a toss-up, giving Michigan the slight edge, with a 50.8% win probability and final score of 66-65 in favor of the good guys.

I did a quick cursory search and couldn't fine vegas lines for the game (but most of those sites are also blocked at my work).  Anyone see anything else out? 

Ultimately, odds/probabilities/lines don't really mean squat, but it's at least fun to see what oddsmakers and the computers come up with.

Purkinje

February 22nd, 2011 at 10:11 AM ^

We win by 17. I know this because I built a time machine Thursday morning, running on the adrenaline from the win. Or should I be saying I will build a time machine on Thursday? Whatever. Be pumped.

BlockM

February 22nd, 2011 at 10:18 AM ^

IME it depends on whether Nankivil plays at full strength. Dude went 5/5 from three point range the other day. If he's out or hobbled with his ankle, our chances increase greatly. According to him, he'll be 100% for the game.

wlubd

February 22nd, 2011 at 10:19 AM ^

I really want to say we win as not only do we need to win games but this is the most high-profile opponent remaining (BTT notwithstanding) and we need a signature win desperately.

That said, ugh. They're a tough team to play against, we haven't matched up well with them in the past and I don't know if we can pull out a close victory against what is a better team.

UM can win and I'll be furiously cheering for them to but I think Wisconsin takes it in a close one.

bluebyyou

February 22nd, 2011 at 10:50 AM ^

Me also, agreeing with you,  although I don't like Wisconsin.  They are a very solid team and if they hit 3's, we could be in trouble.  Never-the-less, it would definitely make my week to beat those miserable f--ks.  Let's hope Kovacs is as hot as he wasn't against Iowa and that the refs review the rule book on charges.

Braylon 5 Hour…

February 22nd, 2011 at 10:26 AM ^

I hate playing Wisconsin.  I think this is a game above most others where we really need some productive minutes out of Smotrycz while out there with Morgan.  We have not come within even 12 of them at home under Beilein, but I have a really tough time believing we get blown out.  I'll take Wisconsin by 7 and will be thrilled if I am way wrong. 

MGoNukeE

February 22nd, 2011 at 10:45 AM ^

I predict that Michigan wins IFF the support players show up to counteract the double teams that I fully expect Wisconsin to show against our top players. If Douglass, Novak, and gang combine for a respectable shooting performance against Wisconsin, the Morris/Hardaway/Morgan trio should be freed up enough to win this game... unless the officials love Wisconsin as much as they love Ohio State.

michgoblue

February 22nd, 2011 at 11:35 AM ^

It is a toss-up.  Most games for the Michigan BB team are a tale of two teams.  When our three pointers are falling, Morris is slashing through 2-3 guys and Hardaway forgets that he has a "jr" after his name, we look scary good.  This usually happens for a stretch.  At the same time, most games also feature a stretch where we can't get a rebound, where we take unnecessary fouls, where the bench comes in and gets pushed around and where our shots are simply not falling.

This game will be determined by which of these stretches take up more of the game. 

wlubd

February 22nd, 2011 at 12:05 PM ^

Mixed opinions amongst the gurus.

Some think .500 record in the Big Ten is enough, others say BTT win or bust. It basically boils down to what the individual gurus think weighs more on the committee. Is it RPI/SOS or is it quality wins/losses?

If RPI/SOS is the biggest factor, than .500 is probably good. If it's the latter, then yeah we probably need to win the tournament. Moral of the story is, we need to win and beating Wisconsin kills 2 birds with one stone as we get a win, and finally get a win against a top 25 team and have a signature win at the end of the season.

Maizerage05

February 22nd, 2011 at 1:52 PM ^

Let's say we beat Wisconsin:

Lose to Minn and MSU -- need to win Big Ten Tourney

Beat Minn and lose to MSU -- need to advance to Big Ten Semis

Lose to Minn and beat MSU - need to advance to Big Ten Semis

Beat Minn and MSU -- In NCAA Tournament, playing for seed in Indianapolis

Desmonlon Edwoodson

February 22nd, 2011 at 12:40 PM ^

1. Zack Novak will be suspended for the Minnesota game.

2. Between the Wisconsin and Minnesota game, I will break down and buy a "0" jersey I will likely never wear.(I'm too old for such things).

3. Someone will be sitting in my seats, but it will not be tough to find a couple of open ones.

4. The game will be officiated by Brett Farve's mother, but this will not really affect the outcome of the game.

5. Michigan will set a record for missed 3 point shots

6. Jordan Taylor will pick up his dribble just inside half court, take 7 steps into the lane, and draw a foul on someone tall and caucasian.

7. This will occur 15-25 times.

8. Two hoped for but unexpected football recruits soften the pain of yet another badger victory.

9. I will fantasize about a "One shining moment" montage starring junior Morris and sophomore Hardaway.

10. The small fickering flame of hope I have nurtured for a 2010 tournament appearance will be crushed, leaving nothing but the best returning team in the big ten in 2011.

(hey, it worked last time)

aMAIZEN slot ninja

February 22nd, 2011 at 12:48 PM ^

If Michigan is going to win tonight they have to hit the three ball. Its time for Stu Douglass and Zach Novak to step up the offense and hit their open three's.  Evan needs to be able to bring a big man out and guard him to open the middle up for Morgan.

This is the toughest game remaining. Thank goodness its at Michigan. Michigan hits the three at a high percentage Michigan wins. If not, Michigan loses.

LSAClassOf2000

February 22nd, 2011 at 5:05 PM ^

.....the Badgers get stuck in a snowdrift and end  up playing the game with only a 45-minute nap under their belt. We win. 

Seriously though, I like our chances wit this game being at Crisler. Badgers are sub-.500 on the road, and we rule at home. Therefore, we rule the Badgers at home.