Will Turnovers "Turn" Our Way?
Do turnovers average out over the long run? Do good teams just have fewer turnovers rather than turnovers determining if you are a good team?
Big 10 2008 Turnovers -- Arranged in order of least turnovers (TO), also showing Takeaways (TA) and TO Margin
Wow, there is no way M will have this Monkey on our back this year.
But, similar to a post I did last week, the correlation between TO Margin and overall record appears weak at best.
| Team | Fumble | Int | Total TO | TA | Margin |
| Ohio State (10-3) | 7 | 6 | 13 | 29 | +16 |
| Penn State (11-2) | 10 | 6 | 16 | 24 | +8 |
| Minnesota (7-6) | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | +12 |
| Indiana (3-9) | 10 | 11 | 21 | 22 | +1 |
| Michigan State (9-4) | 12 | 10 | 22 | 24 | +2 |
| Purdue (4-8) | 10 | 13 | 23 | 20 | -3 |
| Iowa (9-4) | 13 | 11 | 24 | 32 | +8 |
| Illinois (5-7) | 10 | 16 | 26 | 32 | +6 |
| Northwestern (9-4) | 10 | 18 | 28 | 25 | -3 |
| Michigan (3-9) | 18 | 12 | 30 | 20 | -10 |
| Wisconsin (7-6) | 20 | 11 | 31 | 22 | -9 |
September 2nd, 2009 at 5:55 PM ^
I can't believe anybody outfumbled us. Damn you, Wisconsin.
September 2nd, 2009 at 6:55 PM ^
Muffed punt rule probably saved us from a couple more fumbles. I am not sure if the people keeping stats chalk them up as fumbles or ignore them all together. Anyone?
September 2nd, 2009 at 5:57 PM ^
Painful reminder! Interesting to look at. Hopefully behind us, but wow, you go +12 Tim Brewster.
September 2nd, 2009 at 6:18 PM ^
With as much youth as we have, I expect us to have our share of turnovers. However, it will be nothing like nightmare it was last year.
September 2nd, 2009 at 6:21 PM ^
I can't believe that a team would have more turnovers than we had last year.
September 2nd, 2009 at 6:43 PM ^
I Checked the stats:
South Carolina (7-6) is #1 with 38 and a margin of -11
Hawaii (7-7): 37 Margin of -8
Wyoming (4-8): 36 Margin of -22 (Holy SHIT!)
etc.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/stats/turnovers/
September 2nd, 2009 at 6:46 PM ^
We ranked 104th out of 119 FBS teams in turnover margin last year. It is hard to imagine how it could not get better.
September 2nd, 2009 at 6:56 PM ^
Fumbles: 15
Int: 10
Total: 25
TA: 18
Margin: -7
September 2nd, 2009 at 7:04 PM ^
and has shown (I believe Brian mentioned this in a post as well) that both very positive and very negative margins one year tend to return to the mean the next. And that regression often results in dramatic change to the team's record. In our case it's one reason why Steele has us going to a bowl this year, and he's been the most accurate prognosticator out there. From his lips to God's ears, I think the expression goes.
September 2nd, 2009 at 9:23 PM ^
That is why the prognosis on TO's should be good this year.
BTW, with the ridiculous criteria that you have to win only 6 games (Whooooooo!!) to be in a bowl and there are now 12 games (13 in conferences with a championship playoff), it really isn't surprising that M would be expected to go to a bowl this year.
South Florida was in a bowl last year. Overall record: 8-5. Conference 2-5. Finished 6th out of 8 teams in the BCS Big8.
What a joke!!
September 2nd, 2009 at 9:42 PM ^
Jesus, something has to...