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Will rushing yards improve this year?

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:24 AM
#1
GVSUGoBlue
GVSUGoBlue's picture
Joined: 01/12/2011
MGoPoints: 4531
Will rushing yards improve this year?

After reading this article on MLive about our OL this upcoming season I began to wonder how our rushing output could change. It's the offseason so let's do what we do best, speculate.

http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2017/05/from_mason_cole_to_ces...

 

The team is entering into year 3 of Harbaugh and I was curious how his previous coaching stops would compare.

 

Stanford Total Rushing Yards under Harbaugh

2007 - 1134 yards

2008 - 2385 yards

2009 - 2837 yards

2010 - 2779 yards

 

San Francisco Total Rushing Yards under Harbaugh

2011 - 2044 yards

2012 - 2491 yards

2013 - 2201 yards

2014 - 2176 yards

 

Michigan Total Rushing Yards under Harbaugh

2015 - 2057 yards

2016 - 2768 yards

 

As you can see by the numbers, Harbaugh's 2009 Stanford team had the best output at 2837 yards. Obviously the NFL game is a little different, but I included those numbers for those curious of the rushing trend in San Fran.

With the addition of Frey and tidbits that Michigan is going to run more spread looks, how much of an improvement can we really expect in terms of total rushing yards? Or should we just expect better pass protection and cleaner holes for the RBs? The current projections of the OL are LT Cole - LG Bredeson - C Kugler/Ruiz - RG Onwenu - RT Runyan/JBB

 

SPECULATE

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:26 AM
#2
Ricky Spanish
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Joined: 03/07/2017
MGoPoints: 1050
Depends

Does the OLine improve this year? If not, probably no.

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:56 AM
(Reply to #2) #3
Pepto Bismol
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Joined: 02/03/2015
MGoPoints: 7370
That's fair

On the other hand, if the OLine does improve, I'm inclined to say yes.

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:57 AM
(Reply to #2) #4
DualThreat
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Joined: 05/04/2012
MGoPoints: 2297
I'd bet it does.

OL play will be much better with the run, but will be worse in pass prot.  Overall, an improvement though.

Based on this, I see our rushing yards going up, a lot of short passes to the outside or WR end-arounds to take advantage of our WR skillsets (also adding to the rushing yards), and a lot of screen passes to mitigate pass prot.

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:26 AM
#5
SF Wolverine
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Joined: 10/04/2010
MGoPoints: 9105
Be Nice If It Did, But ...

You are going off a pretty big number to start.  Lots of that got racked up, I expect, as we ran the ball in the second half of blowouts.  Be great to be well over 200 yards a game again.

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May 19th, 2017 at 2:05 PM
(Reply to #3) #6
funkywolve
Joined: 10/08/2008
MGoPoints: 15759
Yeah, the key

at least to me, isn't so much is the amount of rushing yards going to improve, but rather can they successfully run the ball against the better teams.  They struggled quite a bit against Wisky, Iowa, OSU and FSU to run the ball.  

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May 19th, 2017 at 3:21 PM
(Reply to #3) #7
UMfan21
Joined: 09/28/2009
MGoPoints: 23019
also a lot of yardage came from end around with

also a lot of yardage came from end around with McDoom and Chesson over the last few years. I'd be more interested in YPC figures from RBs only. that's where we need to improve and be able to grind yards to ice games.

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:27 AM
#8
canzior
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Joined: 05/28/2010
MGoPoints: 3152
Would love to see what those

numbers were the year before and after he was coaching.  

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:31 AM
(Reply to #4) #9
evenyoubrutus
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Joined: 11/04/2008
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Bad

Bad

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:34 AM
(Reply to #4) #10
GVSUGoBlue
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Joined: 01/12/2011
MGoPoints: 4531
Stanford before Harbaugh 2005

Stanford before Harbaugh

2005 - 1015 yards

2006 - 781 yards

 

Stanford after Harbaugh

2011 - 2738 yards

2012 - 2440 yards

2013 - 2904 yards

 

Michigan before Harbaugh

2012 - 2389 yards

2013 - 1634 yards

2014 - 1954 yards

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May 19th, 2017 at 12:04 PM
(Reply to #12) #11
711 Arbor
Joined: 02/24/2017
MGoPoints: 695
This never makes sense to me.

unless every player is the same on offense, every player of your oppostion is the same, and ever opponent is the same for all years being compared, how can you make a conclusion that past results indicate future success?  There are different variable sever year.    Please explain it to me because I'm not smart.  

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May 19th, 2017 at 12:06 PM
(Reply to #33) #12
Prince Lover
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Joined: 07/01/2013
MGoPoints: 12108
Well....

Nancy told you to just say no.

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May 20th, 2017 at 7:53 PM
(Reply to #33) #13
Cake Or Death
Joined: 11/03/2011
MGoPoints: 2170
By that logic

You could never compare coaches.  We'll never know if Harbaugh is a better coach than any other, because they are not at Michigan coaching the exact same players and playing against the exact same opponents.

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May 25th, 2017 at 3:03 PM
(Reply to #33) #14
canzior
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Joined: 05/28/2010
MGoPoints: 3152
I'd agree

if there were small variances...but if you double your running production the year before with maybe 1 change on the O-line..at some point you have to recgonize that one coach is better because you have to assume that taking the same X percentage of players and doubling a win total is reasonable enough to say the coach was the difference.

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:46 AM
(Reply to #4) #15
LSAClassOf2000
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Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 81411
Here's One Thing...

Here's something where I think we need to look at the "bump" in production caused under Harbaugh, so if you tack on the final years of Hoke, you get this trend:

2013 - 1634 yards

2014 - 1957 yards (roughly 16% improvement from 2013, but 5-7)

2015 - 2057 yards (roughly 4%, but obviously new coach, so whatever)

2016 - 2768 yards (roughly 25% improvement in year 2)

So, if I had to guess, 2017 - barring OL issues - might see another increase, but I doubt such a dramatic one.

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:27 AM
#16
Michifornia
Michifornia's picture
Joined: 10/03/2013
MGoPoints: 11361
HAIL

YES!!  I think Evans will be even better this year and hoping Kareem Walker will show us why he was one of the top backs in the country out of high school.  Greater home run threats with our speed so really looking forward to a more Michigan-like running game this year.  I have faith that our O Line will be better than average by mid season.

GO BLUE!!

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:28 AM
#17
Yung Geezer
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Joined: 11/09/2016
MGoPoints: 6575
Oh boy

I really hope so

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May 19th, 2017 at 12:00 PM
(Reply to #6) #18
corundum
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Joined: 05/10/2012
MGoPoints: 40631
You forgot to upvote

You forgot to upvote yourself.

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May 19th, 2017 at 12:05 PM
(Reply to #29) #19
Yung Geezer
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Joined: 11/09/2016
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ha ha

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:28 AM
#20
somewittyname
Joined: 05/15/2009
MGoPoints: -2510
Doubt it

Doubt it due to my low expecations for the line. Seems like Evans could be the best back we've had in a while though, so that could help.

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:28 AM
#21
BlueinOK
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Joined: 12/06/2009
MGoPoints: 14216
It will be better. I think

It will be better. I think the line will be as good or better than last year and Evans will have a breakout season. 

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:33 AM
#22
doggdetroit
Joined: 09/05/2015
MGoPoints: 2337
Maybe.

Maybe.

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:33 AM
#23
maize-blue
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Joined: 01/10/2013
MGoPoints: 30156
I think the line will be

I think the line will be better. Although there is less experience than last season, I think it will be a case of addition by subtraction. It also sounds like some of the guys in the lead for starting spots have better run blocking skills than pass blocking (Onwenu, Bredeson, Runyan).

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:35 AM
#24
Owosso_wolverine
Joined: 06/11/2011
MGoPoints: 2337
Runyan alone makes the run

Runyan alone makes the run game

Better

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:38 AM
#25
pbmd
pbmd's picture
Joined: 04/24/2010
MGoPoints: 1217
Total rushing yards- may not mean a lot

Rushing:

Yards per attempt

Yards in wins vs losses

Yards in 4 th quarter

Other ways to reflect whether run the ball better

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:50 AM
(Reply to #14) #26
GVSUGoBlue
GVSUGoBlue's picture
Joined: 01/12/2011
MGoPoints: 4531
2015 Average yds per rush -

2015

Average yds per rush - 4.2

TDS - 27

Yards in losses

Utah - 29 carries for 76yds

MSU - 33 carries for 62yds

OSU - 25 carries for 57yds

 

2016

Average yds per rush - 4.8

TDS - 41

Yards in losses

Iowa - 35 carries for 98yds

OSU - 43 carries for 91yds

FSU - 36 carries for 89yds

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May 19th, 2017 at 1:27 PM
(Reply to #15) #27
GoBlueDiggity
Joined: 07/24/2016
MGoPoints: 407
I'm in the minority here I

I'm in the minority here I think, but as long as the defense stays healthy--especially the D Line--that the defense really by the end of the aeason doesn't miss a beat. I expect the secondary to be more than serviceable albeit young and obviously inexperienced. Of course I still believe that growing pains will happen but I have pretty high expectations for this team as a whole. If our run game improves late in games and produces more chunk type gains, I think pass protection is less of an issue than it otherwise would be.

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:43 AM
#28
OwenGoBlue
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Joined: 04/03/2016
MGoPoints: 16963
I mean they could be up or

I mean they could be up or down depending on if Michigan chooses to run or throw for 1,000 yards against Rutgers.

I'm guessing the numbers are similar to last year if not down a bit. Not a whole lot of opportunity to go up from last year's 200+ yards per game unless they throw the ball fewer times per game. I'd expect more passing attempts with second year starter Air Wilton and his merry bunch of Tacopants-sized wideouts. 

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:44 AM
#29
Wolverine62bc
Wolverine62bc's picture
Joined: 01/28/2014
MGoPoints: 361
Think play calling will improve!

New additions on our staff will make a difference!
Coaches Pep Hamilton and Frey will be a step forward
Coach Harbaugh's players now!
Go Blue!

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May 20th, 2017 at 4:22 PM
(Reply to #17) #30
WholeMilk
WholeMilk's picture
Joined: 08/25/2015
MGoPoints: 1240
Agreed

I think having Frey aboard means that the interior lineman and the tackles will get more individual focus. So, not only do we get Frey's expertise, but we will also maximize Drevno's impact on the line. I'm not saying the run game will be better from day one, but I believe it will end up better, for sure (hopefully this season).

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:48 AM
#31
DMill2782
DMill2782's picture
Joined: 01/21/2011
MGoPoints: 5608
I just want

improvement when we play good defenses. Our rushing game was garbage against Wisconsin, Iowa, OSU, and FSU last year. Basically anytime we played a defense with a pulse. 

The running game wasn't great against IU either. Smith broke a couple big ones and O'Korn had the 30 yard scramble to pump up the YPC. 

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:48 AM
#32
Michigan4Life
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 16409
Michigan's 2nd year rushing yard output

is by large a mirage. They weren't very good against good defense. They went under 100 yards against OSU, FSU and Iowa. They went over 100 yards against Wisconsin but their ypc is 3.0 which is awful. They struggled against UCF with under 3.0 ypc. Only good defensive team they did well was against Colorado which is over 4.0 ypc.

Most of their yardages were against bad defense especially Rutgers which they ran over 400 yards. Ran for over 200 yards against Indiana, Maryland, Hawaii and PSU. PSU was without 8 of their 11 starters(plus starting LB was ejected by a dumbass rule). Not exactly murder's row.

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:51 AM
#33
mgobaran
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Joined: 09/12/2012
MGoPoints: 18067
Yards goes down (already a

Yards goes down (already a high number), but efficiency will be up. Passing yards are going to go way up though. 

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:52 AM
#34
N. Campus Tech
N. Campus Tech's picture
Joined: 09/10/2015
MGoPoints: 4597
Yes, we will have more

Yes, we will have more rushing yards.

1. This year's backs are better than last year. Deveon was solid runner and a great pass blocker, but he was not a home run threat. Evans, Higdon and Walker are better runners.

2. The wide receivers will be worse. We are losing two NFL wide receivers and are gaining very athletic freshmen. Freshmen WR are not great. I'm expecting there will be more running plays called to compensate for this.

3. The offensive line should be better than last years group. I'm hoping.

In summary, more yards per play + more running plays called = more season rushing yards.

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May 19th, 2017 at 12:12 PM
(Reply to #23) #35
maize-blue
maize-blue's picture
Joined: 01/10/2013
MGoPoints: 30156
I think we'll see

I think we'll see improvements with the additon several players or players with more prominent roles, like the RB's you mentioned.

Magnusun, Kalis and Braden played a lot of football for UM but never seemed live up to lofty recruiting rankings. I think this year's offensive line will have a much higher upside.

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May 19th, 2017 at 4:37 PM
(Reply to #23) #36
funkywolve
Joined: 10/08/2008
MGoPoints: 15759
WRs

I'm not expecting too much drop off in terms of receiving production from the wr's.  Last year Darboh and Chesson were:

Darboh - 57 catches, 862 yds, 7 td

Chesson - 35 catches, 500 yds, 2 td

Chesson didn't even average 3 catches a game!!  I don't know if it will be just 2 players, maybe it ends up being 3 or 4, but if the production from the starting wr's in 2017doesn't match or come down close to matching what Darboh and Chesson did, then UM's passing offense will probably be pretty poor.

The area where I think we'll really miss Darboh and Chesson is their blocking in the run game.

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:53 AM
#37
SC Wolverine
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Joined: 08/18/2010
MGoPoints: 4338
There are a number of ways to

There are a number of ways to improve rushing performance.  The most obvious is to improve O-line blocking.  Another way is to give more carries to a back who is able to create yardage.  Yet another way is a quick passing spread attack that keeps the linebackers off the line of scrimmage.  I am hopeful that we will see all three of these in 2017.  Obviously, we will have to see about the blocking (I am hopeful).  But more carries to Evans can only help (I like Higdon alot too), and an NFL spread passing scheme can really open up running lanes.  It will be interesting, for sure.

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:55 AM
#38
SCarolinaMaize
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Joined: 06/17/2010
MGoPoints: 7143
I predict

2ea - 1,000yd rushers

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May 19th, 2017 at 11:56 AM
#39
711 Arbor
Joined: 02/24/2017
MGoPoints: 695
Wait and find out!!!

!

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May 19th, 2017 at 12:00 PM
#40
Bomance
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Joined: 11/14/2012
MGoPoints: 56
Yes

Absolutely. Gonna play 2 extra games this year

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May 19th, 2017 at 2:54 PM
(Reply to #30) #41
AZBlue
AZBlue's picture
Joined: 09/14/2008
MGoPoints: 7808
I am dumb

at computing game totals and made a dumb comment.

 

Does anyone know of a college I could attend that doesn't require Algebra?

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May 19th, 2017 at 12:01 PM
#42
cincygoblue
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Joined: 09/11/2010
MGoPoints: 2583
Harbaugh

Can't believe we are already going into our 3rd season of HARBAUGH

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May 19th, 2017 at 12:01 PM
#43
reddogrjw
Joined: 07/06/2016
MGoPoints: 6156
no

we are a passing team now

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May 19th, 2017 at 1:18 PM
#44
Bodogblog
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Joined: 06/08/2010
MGoPoints: 21200
Expect high variance.   I

Expect high variance.   I like Kugler from what I've seen, have a feeling we'll be asking why he didn't play last year.  Cole will be good and Bredeson average.  I'd expect better from left side runs, given improved RB potential.  Right side is going to be a mix of Onwenu pummeling and opening huge holes and missing his assignment or bouncing off his guy (or being late off the ball) and getting the play submarined.  RT is an unknown, but the expectation should be below average. A lot of the time the tackle's job is either blocking down or walling off the DE, which isn't that difficult against bad or mediocre teams. 

Similar high variance story - though for different reasons - for DBs, WRs, TEs.  

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May 19th, 2017 at 12:23 PM
#45
MGoBlue24
Joined: 08/22/2013
MGoPoints: 9253
Even without the B1G Championship and beyond

we'll be +337 yards over last year's production.

Sorry, I'm too busy to show my work.

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May 19th, 2017 at 12:28 PM
#46
BIGBLUEWORLD
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Joined: 07/14/2012
MGoPoints: 4039
Diversity is the key

This year we'll have more diversity in our running attack. Adjusting to what works or not, and keeping opponents off guard.

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May 21st, 2017 at 10:22 PM
(Reply to #42) #47
jabberwock
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Joined: 07/04/2008
MGoPoints: 44192
Your canines

are showing.

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May 19th, 2017 at 3:02 PM
#48
StellaBlue
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Joined: 03/24/2010
MGoPoints: 1304
Login to upvote.

Enthusiasm unknown to mankind, war-dawg. Who the hell needs to hit return when the juice is flowing. I hope you are right on the team bro.  You keep this up and you could become a classic, just like THE KNOWLEDGE.

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May 19th, 2017 at 8:07 PM
#49
fksljj
fksljj's picture
Joined: 11/27/2016
MGoPoints: -9997905
I sure hope so. I don't like

I sure hope so. I don't like speaking ill of people but I won't be sad that De'Veon Smith is gone. He was too slow to hit the hole and he went down on first contact. I wish him the best, but adios.

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May 20th, 2017 at 8:05 AM
(Reply to #52) #50
ABOUBENADHEM
ABOUBENADHEM's picture
Joined: 11/17/2015
MGoPoints: 2737
Deveon, "down on first contact"?

Are you nuts?

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May 20th, 2017 at 12:09 PM
(Reply to #55) #51
fksljj
fksljj's picture
Joined: 11/27/2016
MGoPoints: -9997905
"Are you nuts?" I urge you

"Are you nuts?"

 

I urge you to go back and watch Michigan games (not just videos labeled "De'Veon Smith highlights", everybody busts one now and then). Dude went down way too easy.

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May 25th, 2017 at 3:09 PM
(Reply to #58) #52
chunkums
chunkums's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 13665
Deveon went down on first

Deveon went down on first contact when the contact was a defensive tackle. Dude ate linebackers and secondary players for lunch. 

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May 20th, 2017 at 12:08 AM
#53
Duke of Zhou
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Joined: 12/03/2014
MGoPoints: 3275
Yes.

Yes.

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May 20th, 2017 at 12:09 AM
#54
Lou MacAdoo
Lou MacAdoo's picture
Joined: 10/16/2011
MGoPoints: 4502
Well Evans in good for about

Well Evans in good for about 2000 yards this year, so we just need 800 from the rest of the stable and it'll be a statistical improvement. Seriously Evans is going ham this year.

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May 20th, 2017 at 8:42 AM
#55
Hannibal.
Hannibal.'s picture
Joined: 09/09/2008
MGoPoints: 6297
No. The schedule is brutal

No. The schedule is brutal this year compared to last year's and the line is facing all kinds of major issues, like having no depth at LT and no talent at RT.

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May 20th, 2017 at 8:53 AM
#56
Night_King
Night_King's picture
Joined: 03/02/2016
MGoPoints: 18159
Honestly I care more about

Honestly I care more about when we get the rushing yards rather than just looking at total outputs.

We desperately needed to rush for first downs and keep the clock moving against teams like Iowa, OSU and Florida State. 

I wouldn't be upset if our total rushing yards number goes down, as long as our 4th quarter rushing improves in tight games. 

One of the main reasons we were able to squeak out a win vs Indiana with O'Korn at QB was because Deveon went beast mode in the 2nd half and broke off two incredible runs. Would love to see our RB's improve as the game goes on. 

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May 20th, 2017 at 3:54 PM
#57
waterfordjoe
waterfordjoe's picture
Joined: 10/02/2014
MGoPoints: 10
4th quarter rushing just has to improve somehow

Still wonder how last season would have turned out just by eeking out a 1st down in the end of each of those losses...was it OL? RB's? play calling too conservative?

Seemed like it all started in the final 5 minutes or so of the State game, even though the game was put away.  We obviously saw this as well in the 2015 late October horror show.

 

 

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May 21st, 2017 at 12:33 AM
(Reply to #59) #58
MichiganStan
MichiganStan's picture
Joined: 01/03/2017
MGoPoints: 1631
I think it was everything.

I think it was everything. Speight wasnt clutch in those final drives that could've put away games. But Deveon Smith also just sucked.

Last year was defintely one of those "What Could've Been" Seasons if only we had played normally at the end of those games.

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May 22nd, 2017 at 8:33 AM
(Reply to #63) #59
Squeezebox
Squeezebox's picture
Joined: 04/25/2014
MGoPoints: 912
One reason Deveon got the majority of the snaps,

was that he was the only back that was good at pass protection.   That is an important aspect that seems to be ignored in all the discussion about next year's RB projections.

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May 21st, 2017 at 12:48 AM
#60
MichiganStan
MichiganStan's picture
Joined: 01/03/2017
MGoPoints: 1631
Of course. Deveon Smith was a

Of course. Deveon Smith was a slow ass bum and now that he's gone we can finally get a consistent and reliable running game back. Not sure there was anything I hated more last season than Deveon as our starting RB.

Chris Evans will be great but I think Kareem Walker is going to give Evans a run for his money. Kareem's hungry and judging from some twitter posts he worked out a lot with Jabrill so he's defintely in good shape. I also want to see what O'Maury Samuels can do. Dudes more ripped than players in the NFL combine and he's not even in college yet and he's pretty damn fast too.

 

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May 21st, 2017 at 9:51 PM
#61
UM Griff
Joined: 12/03/2016
MGoPoints: 9625
Yes.

We will be better than we are given credit for.

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