Will latest talks of Big 12 expansion trigger another super conference arms race?

Submitted by Cali Wolverine on
Interesting article/take by Clay Travis at Outkick The Coverage on how the Big 12's latest push for expansion (coupled with ESPN's loss of subscribers) may actually lead to the eventual implosion of the Big 12 and further expansion by the Big 10 and SEC. Here is the link: http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/big-12-expansion-also-impacts-big-ten…

ballertim87

August 11th, 2016 at 1:27 AM ^

which is 3-4 games less than 2 NFL teams will be playing

And we're not going to 16 anyway. His division and playoff breakdown is moot and just for the sake of speculation. The author's point is more about the alignment of these tv contracts with the dilemma of the Big12's current position. He's stating how realistic and opportune it will be for the other conferences to pounce, given the current tv deals, and how necessary it may be, for several teams' sake, that the Big12 desperately make a last ditch effort...

umbig11

August 10th, 2016 at 6:02 PM ^

I heard a couple of others on Sirius XM talking about it too. They all think the Big 12 is doomed. Just give me Texas and Oklahoma and call it a day. Screw ND!

Perkis-Size Me

August 10th, 2016 at 8:59 PM ^

Well sure. If someone is willing to fork over millions upon millions upon millions to the ACC, I'm sure they'd be okay with letting ND go.

The only problem is at this point, trying to pay out that buyout clause would be financially irresponsible and absolutely ludicrous.




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Hornsgoblue (not verified)

August 10th, 2016 at 11:38 PM ^

The Big 12 never should have been created to begin with.

The SWC before its demise had Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, TCU, Houston, and Arkansas which  are all currently formidable teams in Football. (Dont worry Texas will be back).Rice is a significant academic institution and Texas Tech and SMU are along for the ride.To this you could have added 1-3 schools to create a pretty powerful conference. Instead they created the current mess which has West Virginia nearly 1000 miles from the bulk of the teams in the conference in addition to the loss of the Texas-Texas A&M rivalry one of the fiercest rivalries in all of sports.

If we could only turn back time.

In reply to by Hornsgoblue (not verified)

Blue Durham

August 11th, 2016 at 12:28 PM ^

The Southwest Conference was a very good conference. Although the conference was 9 schools prior to Arkansas leaving for the SEC (effective in 1992), the drop down to 8 seemed to have a big impact on it. The entire conference was in 1 state, and was land-locked out of expansion (with the exception of New Mexico, I guess) and only lasted another 4 or 5 years.

The solution: The top 4 schools, led by Texas, would dump the lesser 4 (Rice, TCU, Baylor and Houston) and merge with the Big 8. I really have no sympathy for Texas and little for the other 3 schools. And all of this really started the mess that we are in now with the conferences.

mgoblue0970

August 10th, 2016 at 6:09 PM ^

A couple of years ago, when the B1G & SEC started all of this... and there were rumors of Texas coming to the B1G, a friend of mine who is HC of a non-revenue sport at a D-I school said he envisions four 16 team conferences when all of this is over.

So, if he's right, there's some more wheeling and dealing to occur.

If it's true, let's hope Delany doesn't give us another Rutgers and Maryland.

CorkyCole

August 10th, 2016 at 6:12 PM ^

I don't think the teams that they are looking to bring into their conference will have any immediate impact on the other major conferences, but I do think the Big 12 is on the verge of collapsing. And you know that Jim Delany knows this and will be thinking ahead like he always does with conference expansion. He may be on the verge of retiring, but that seems like his kinda game where it should avoid the "one foot out the door" approach. Might be his last hurrah before retirement.

CorkyCole

August 10th, 2016 at 7:01 PM ^

I think he's terrible as a commissioner in a lot of aspects but he also enhanced the B1G's financial position to a level where it nearly seems untouchable. Maryland and Rutgers may be awful athletic institutions, but those were the schools he wanted and he got them.

He's been extremely proactive with expansion and pretty much way behind the curtains to where it almost hit by surprise once officially announced. He's just been way ahead of the game regardless of the quality of choices, and I won't be surprised if he leads the way to the Big 12's implosion.

It's pretty obvious which programs he would go after first, and I won't be surprised if he gets first pick. The B1G conference has the most to offer expansion candidates above all other conferences, and Delany are least had something to do with that - TV money being a big part of it.

the Glove

August 10th, 2016 at 6:13 PM ^

I don't think that it's going to cause another series of expansion for the Big Ten and SEC. I just think it's something for reporters to write about. If anything the Big 12 should grab two more additional teams and just jump up to 14.

reddogrjw

August 10th, 2016 at 6:17 PM ^

they are only able to add non-Power 5 teams - just diluting the conference

They have lost Nebraska, Texas A&M, Missouri and Colorado

added TCU and WVU

The conference is terrible

Texas

Texas Tech

Baylor

TCU

Kansas

KSU

OU

OSU

WVU

Iowa State

 

if the SEC and Big 10 grab 2 each, the Pac 12 might take TCU and Houston (Houston is a better get than any of the remaining teams - infact, getting Texas and Houston or OU and Houston might not be bad

the Glove

August 10th, 2016 at 6:27 PM ^

I don't believe grabbing BYU would dilute the conference. They are a higher quality team than an Iowa State or Kansas. You don't have to get a conference power or an upper tier team every time you expand. They just need to be a little bit better than the middle of the pack in your conference.

reddogrjw

August 10th, 2016 at 6:13 PM ^

7 division games, 2 cross games each season

move Purdue to the East, add OU and OSU or OU and Texas (as long as they dump LHN)

Texas and Kansas is OK I guess

But one of OU or Texas would be a must for us to take 2 teams from the Big 12

Blueblood2991

August 10th, 2016 at 6:16 PM ^

The only way I see Texas joining is if they get a full revenue share right away, and even then I doubt it. They made $45 mil last year between the Longhorn Network and the Big 12 cut. Honestly, they could wait til the Big 12 implodes and still join a conference right away or go independent.

My solution:They join the B1G West, and only get to keep the Longhorn Network if we get start a Wolverine Network.

JamieH

August 10th, 2016 at 6:25 PM ^

Just break the Big Ten into 2 8-team divisiosn.  Play the 7 teams in your division, plus 2 cross-over games.  Then play your conference championship game as normal.  If you want to keep the scheduling fair, only count in-division games towards determining who is in the conference championship game, outside of tie-breaks.  Much like OOC games don't count. 



East:

Michigan

MSU

OSU

PSU

Rutgers

Maryland

Indiana

Purdue



West:

Texas

Nebraska

Wisconsin

Illinois

Northwestern

Iowa

Minnesota

Kansas





Works for me.  We still play MSU, OSU, PSU every year and we rotate through 2 teams from the West each season.  

 

 

 

 

FrankMurphy

August 10th, 2016 at 6:29 PM ^

I don't think this latest round of Big 12 expansion talk is as much a trigger as it is a symptom of how vulnerable the Big 12 is. BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, or whoever won't save them. They need to add a big name (and restructure their revenue share model) in order to regain their footing, and that ain't happening anytime soon. I think we're headed towards the era of 16-team "superconferences", and the Big 12 will be the biggest casualty of that shift.  

SwordDancer710

August 10th, 2016 at 6:38 PM ^

While I expect the Big 12 to go to 12 in the near future, the B1G probably won't expand again until the ACC reaches the end of their current media deal, which keeps revenue in the ACC even if a team leaves.

At that point, I think all hell breaks loose and either the Big 12 scoops up some of the ACC teams (FSU, GT) or the Big 12 collapses and is absorbed by the B1G, ACC, and SEC. Hopefully by then Delany will have retired and we will see good expansion to 16 (or 20?).

LSAClassOf2000

August 10th, 2016 at 7:36 PM ^

 photo Conferences2035.jpg

I am still waiting for my theory on conference realignment to come to fruition. Instead of Legends and Leaders (originally composed in 2012), of course, just put "East" and "West" there instead. Not as if it matters in this model, not too much anyway.

drzoidburg

August 11th, 2016 at 1:15 AM ^

Well let's start from a Michigan fan's POV: Texas/Oklahoma/OK St are not joining our division. That means we'd swap 3 games a year vs the current West for 1 game vs Purdue and 2 vs those teams and the newcombers...You'd see Texas/OK every 4 years and they're already on the schedule (at least until Manuel/Harbaugh fuck with it). That seems much like the networks are accusing the B12 of currently - expansion weakening the quality, of the East at least. Still, it would balance the schedules more. No more Iowa skating thru to the CCG

Now since Delayney and co (will his retirement finally come by then?) couldn't care less what any of us wants (i think rutgers proved this), do i think it'll happen? Yes, but not necessarily to our conference, and not entirely because of the B12 cash grab at expense of the networks. There's only so many (2) desirable teams from there to go around to realistically 3 suitors with a chance. If we can't get them i REALLY hope we don't seriously contemplate expansion, ever. But i can't see it even with these bumble fuck ADs. There's just no media market or national brand

And this would've happened regardless. It's WHY the expansion will continue down there. OK wants out bad, TX won't get the Longhorn network renewed or not for a pittance compared to now, and both know the conference will die in 2025 at latest. They're just milking a few mil/year more off the new teams (lower revenue share) and trying to improve playoff chances slightly thru CCG

What this does is in my view free up OU from the legislature to move without its ugly sister. ESPN will not negotiate another deal after this. As it stands, probably only the PAC would consider them both. Now they could join with TX and leave OSU in the dust, critical since BIG/SEC have 14...of course, all of them + texas tech remains possible, in the PAC

It also may accelerate the whole thing. Truly, until i hear (so and so) is joining the B12, i half expect to hear OU/TX are joining BIG/SEC. It happened with Nebraska. Now, if 3 teams leave, they can't keep their conference, tv contract becomes void and so does GOR. In addition, i'm not sure any court would uphold it. It is rather coercive in my view. But if they do expand first, they will hold together a few years at least...then we'll be right back here

I really dislike their addendum of 'autobid only' playoff though. That renders any non conference games worthless or non existent

ballertim87

August 11th, 2016 at 1:07 AM ^

This is the most authentic and sober analysis I've seen regarding expansion/current FBS status. +1!

My only comment: Texas get what they want in terms of divisions/teams they play in any other conference they end up.




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