Wide Receiver Production

Eh, I think if Forcier plays majority of snaps, I could see those WR production numbers. Denard has made tremendous strides and definitely is the most improved player, but I'm still not 100% sold on him being a very effective passer. With D-Rob, I feel that it would be a more run-heavy offense. Still could get good WR production with D-Rob, but as of now feel that Forcier would only be able to get the numbers that you presented.

Roundtree is going to get his catches no matter what because of our heavily utilization of the slot, so yeah I think 60 catches from his is definitely possible. Still leary on TE utilization; started out strong beginning of last year but tapered off heavily after first month (mainly due to dropped balls and injuries). Really wish our outside WR can become effective; not being able to stretch the field hurts us.

Odoms plays receiver, T-Rob and Gallon are getting on the field, and we have a lot of new outside receivers you didn't consider.

receivers.

Stonum is really the only burner, and they need to find a way to start stretching the field with him so teams do not just pack in a ten yard area. I look at his production as a key. Odoms/Rountree are going to get a lot of balls, but we do need to see Stonum and Stokes and Hemmingway start showing up more on the stat sheet for this offense to be truly effective.

I did not see any of that on Saturday and the only long pass plays were the seam routes by the slots.

Roundtree should catch more than 32 balls this year. He's the #1 target, whether in the slot or outside.

I don't know if Stonum will catch more than 27. He was healthy last year and couldn't do it. And if Denard is the quarterback, I think we'll see a lot more short stuff with slots catching the ball rather than outside WRs. Regardless, if Stonum and Roundtree get the most PT on the outside and Roundtree exceeds 32 catches, that doesn't bode well for Stonum's numbers.

I don't think there's any way Koger catches more than 22 balls. Rodriguez doesn't like to use the tight ends. Everyone thought that Koger would be Jemaine Gresham last year, and he caught 16 balls. Until I see it on the field, I'm going to assume that tight ends just won't be that involved in the passing game. Besides that, the WOTS is that Webb has looked better this spring than Koger. Koger definitely isn't going to catch 23+ passes as a backup.

Hemingway...eh. I'm not impressed. I'd rather see Stonum/Roundtree on the outside and have Robinson/Odoms/Gallon in the slot. Hemingway had a good game against WMU, but analysts downgraded him coming out of high school because he's slow...and he's done nothing to dispel that notion. I don't think he'll surpass 20 catches.

I'd like to see Stonum get more involved. The QB's didn't really look for him during the spring game. He has all the potential, but seemed to disappear in games last year.

during the spring game. I don't remember the ball being thrown his way much if at all. He is the one guy we know can stretch the field and needs to be utilized as such.
I don't think we have enough information yet to determine WR production. Who is going to be the QB? What direction is the offense going? If Denard starts can he do it against a real D that isn't playing vanilla, is disguising coverages, and is blitzing? Will the Oline provide better protection(I expect so, but I need to see it in a real game)?
Hopefully in the future, the spring game can present 1s vs 1s and 2s vs 2s so we can get a real barometer of things to come. I would expect next year barring injuries with a big freshmen class coming in and a small senior class leaving.

Haven't heard much about him...How is he doing?

?? If we're truly at a peak of QB play right now, we're in trouble.

HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL

and the coaches will have more confidence in you.

Basically, you're predicting that 4 different guys will catch more balls in 2010 than they did in 2008 and 2009 combined. When is the last time that happened on any football team?

Roundtree is the safest bet, since he had zero in 2008 and only came on strong near the end of 2009. Then, maybe one of the other two.

Koger is probably the least plausible. For him to catch 30 balls, he’d need to average more than 2½ per game. That seems awfully unlikely, as this offense does not feature the TE, and it appears he will be splitting time with Martell Webb.

You’re forgetting several other guys who figure to get playing time, like Tay Odoms, Jeremy Gallon, etc. Rodriguez likes to rotate his wide-outs, which makes it difficult for one guy to light it up game after game.

It’s safe to say that if Michigan is going to have a winning season, somebody had better be catching the ball, but for four guys to all have career years just doesn’t sound realistic.

Comparing the current QBs to the best of the Navarre/Henne era is likewise unrealistic, as Michigan is now much more dependent on the short passing game and the QB running the ball.

i hope woolfolk, dorsey, cam and vlad each catch about 4 passes this year.

see what i did there?

I expect pretty much the the same production out of everybody else and the new guys (those essentially with under 10 catches in their career) splitting the extra completions. I could easily see Koger getting an equal amount, with maybe a slight increase in production from Webb.

I think another key might be how much we run out of the I-formation this fall. We saw a bit of it during the spring game. Out of the I-form the TEs might be the most dangerous player on the field, especially with some of the natural ability Koger has (if he holds onto the ball, again).

I think Odoms gets his, probably some where between his '08 and '09 stats. I really think Odoms is starting to be slept on, even though his production has been solid. But because his production slipped last year they are forgetting how good he can be, and has proven to be (if he doesn't drop the ball). We need to get him the ball as he can be electric with it.

As far as Hemingway, sometimes to torrents of spring don't equate to fall production, but I don't see his numbers drastically going up. With all the talent at slot, RB, and TE, there just isn't enough to get all the outside guys enough balls their way, especially with the trends we've seen of RR offense.

The OL and QB's will have a very loud "say" in how well the recievers do. I think the OL will be improved because they are a year older and bigger. This should help both in protection and in a good enough running game to help open up the field for recievers.

As for getting the ball down the field, it appears that DG is the only QB with a rocket launcher, and we really can't predict whether or not he will make it onto the field this year. I still think we will see a few plays like the 97-yarder, but I also think they will be to wide-open recievers because of gross mismatches and blown coverages caused by the spread.

I think the determining factor on WR stats will be the ability of both Forcier and Denard to throw the intermediate route. If they can get the ball out there with enough speed and accuracy against defenses who are really getting after it, we may be pleasantly surprised. If they struggle, the offense may depend on RB's and slots.

I am always optimistic, so I think that Forcier will fully heal this summer and come out with enough arm to get the job done. I also think Denard's progress is real, and that he will have enough arm to get the job done; with him, the determining factor will probably be recognition of coverages.

As for the individual recievers, I still don't feel that we have seen enough from any of them to guarantee a great year for anyone individually. There is a lot of talent and potential, but there are still a lot of question marks. I like Roundtree a lot, but they have to be able to get him the ball.

All in all, I think the offense will average 33-35 points a game, but with the bulk of the offense coming from the inside, with the WR's being more like decoys at least 80 percent of the time.

Seriously though, as long we have a couple guys who can catch the ball, run really really fast, and only let go when giving it to the ref I'll be happy.

Roundtree: 40 catches, 500 yards, 5 TD
Odoms: 30 catches, 350 yards, 2 TD
Stonum: 20 catches, 350 yards, 2 TD

Koger/Webb: 30 catches, 350 yards, 3 TD
Other Slots: 30 catches, 350 yards, 2 TD
Other Split-ends: 30 catches, 400 yards, 3 TD
Running backs: 20 catches, 200 yards, 2 TD

Totals: 200 catches, 2500 yards, 19 TD, 12 INT

As long as UM operates a run first offense I think your numbers are a bit high. I would expect the QBs to be more accurate this year and increase the 189 receptions from last year but I wouldn't expect RR to call more pass plays. If the QBs can increase their accuracy to 60% collectively, which is pretty good, you can expect just under 200 catches. To give nearly half of those receptions to Koger and Roundtree seems unlikely.

I would expect more RB receptions though. If one guy emerges to carry the ball then I would expect him to be 3rd or 4th in receptions at the end of the year. Though I am basing that on one spring practice scrimmage, a RB seemed to be out in the flat a lot.

That's 360 passes to be caught. 60% caught is decent, so that makes 216 catches. So those numbers look fairly reasonable to me. I'm still not sold on Stonum's ball skills and I think Odoms is probably as good or better bets to be the next leading catcher after Roundtree. Also, I really liked Gallon and Robinson, but they might need another year. Koger's production is dependent on the degree to which the two slots breakout (as well as his own breakout potential), but let's say the distribution looks like:

60
45
30
30
15
15

From most to least, I like Roundtree, Odoms, Stonum, Koger, Gallon. Next best: J. Robinson and Stokes.

Always thought Stonum should get some time in the slot as well to get him more touches. Stonum doesn't have the strong body or the route running ability of a Mario Manningham to have a ton of success on the outside. He needs to get the ball somehow plain and simple.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaFjSU_MQbk

Please, I want to see more of this

and maybe this is being overly optimistic. I'm hoping UM isn't having to come from behind in the 4th quarter of just about every game. How many games last year were they behind and predominantly throwing the ball in the 4th quarter? I'm hoping this year to see a few more games where they're ahead in the 4th quarter and keeping the ball on the ground.