Why so rosy? a break down of a 10+ win season
Granted I'm looking through some rosy Maize glasses, but I have seen a lot of 7-5 at best predictions of late, and I wanted to defend why we are setting our upper win limit too low when we look at our actual games this year. So a break down of each game and why its winnable;
1. UConn- UConn has been broken down by other MGoBloggers. They appear to be a solid team that will rely on the run game significantly, since they have to break in a whole new recieving group with just an ok passer. Our run defense is the strongest portion of our defense, and a previous diary showed that UConn did not perform well defensively against spread offenses. Our offense should be very potent this year, and add on the fact that it is at home, and we go from a winnable game, to a possible blow out.
2. Notre Dame- This game scares me, mainly because of Christ, Floyd, and Kelly and really not knowing what to expect. The good news, our offense will be even better, they don't have Golden, and we won last year. No reason to believe we can't win this game.
3/4. BG/ UMass- Hopefully no explanation needed
5. Indiana - Should be an entertaining game, with two potent offenses, but again, we won last year, and by all accounts, should be better. No reason we shouldn't expect a good chance to win this game
6. MSU - Probably the most critical game of the year, this could shape the rest of the year. MSU mirror's our team a lot since we both have potent offenses and suspect secondaries. Why we can win; Our offensive line is better than there's, and our defensive line is better than there's. No matter how much the game changes, games our won in the trenches, and we have the better stats going in. Add in the 6 point swing in homefield advantage, and we win a classic shootout.
7. Iowa- With Iowa, there has been lots of hype coming into the season, however, there are weaknesses that are there. 1. We showed that as good a defense as they have, we can move the ball on them. D-Rob drove the length of the field running 3 plays. With a healthy O-line and improved QB play, expect us to score, which will force them out of there conservative game plan. Take away Moeki, a couple new line man, and Stanzi throwing the rock, and I like our odds. Again, add in the 6 point home field advantage and the closeness of last years game, there's no reason to think we can't win here as well.
8. PSU - Happy Valley will be our second toughest environment of the year. The crowd will be loud and the team will be ramped up. Lucky for us, they are using a freshman QB or a first time shaky starter, playing behind a rebuilt line, that wasn't very good last year. Our offense won't be able to score as easily on this defense, but their offense might not require us too. Should be a great and winnable game in a great atmosphere.
9. Illinois - By all accounts, they should be a horrible team this year. So besides maybe being a trap game after the MSU-PSU stretch, walking away from this game without a W will be very telling ;)
10. Purdue - Similar to MSU as another team that mirror's us pretty well. Should be a shootout, but with two close losses in a row, I'm counting on our team to be hungry (especially RR to shut that pie hole on Danny "give mustaches a bad name" Hope)
11. Wisconsin - Not much to say here. Wisconsin will be a real challenge and by all accounts should be a loss. My only possible response is 2008? But not going to rely on that type of breakdown by Wisconsin.
12. The Game - To this I only reiterate the Epic Tale of the 1969 team that beat possibly the best OSU team ever. Anything can happen in The Game. Winning breads winning, and if we have won like we can to this point, strap in for one hell of a game.
So there you have it. This is why I'm optomistic. Does a lot have to go our way to win this season? sure. Are the odds in our favor? hell no! But we're starting the season off undefeated, and as a famous Corellian once stated "Never tell me the odds."
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:08 PM ^
In week 2 or do you mean the QB by the name of Dayne Crist
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:11 PM ^
That thing creeps me out, and I'm guessing will creep all the players out. Why is he so big? not sure who this Crist kid you're talking about is.
+1 for the catch by the way.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:14 PM ^
RIP Touchdown Jesus 
August 23rd, 2010 at 10:51 PM ^
That was "Big Butter Jesus". Located near the "Church of Oleo Lord".
August 24th, 2010 at 8:10 PM ^
to Terminator Jesus in a blink of an eye.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:12 PM ^
telling.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:15 PM ^
Honestly, I think a season like that is possible to, I'm just not advertising it because with the defense the way it is, I just don't know enough to be confident in such a result. I do have faith though, because I see that a lot of teams we're playing this year also have some flaws that we can and hopefully will exploit. We also managed pretty close games with teams that look to be solid this year (Iowa, Ohio State, and IIRC we led Wisconsin at halftime before they gave up and started throwing).
Definitely not enough evidence until UConn and ND are played to be confident in 10+, but I think there is enough there to be confident in 8+ and getting RR unqeustionably to 2011 where I think we'll really start to do some serious damage on both sides of the ball. If we can just get around the corner, I see good things on the horizon for at least a decade or two. Plus, I still don't really like Jim Harbaugh. I'd rather shut him up in the Rose Bowl than shut him up by hiring him.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:20 PM ^
I wrote basically the same article on bleacher report
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/393400-game-the-michigan-wolverines-…
August 23rd, 2010 at 8:59 PM ^
I'm angry I read that.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:20 PM ^
I like it too.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:24 PM ^
have the last two years not taught us anything?
I hope with all my heart that you are right, but pre-season predictions are meaningless this early. No sense getting hopes up (remember last year?) only to see them come crashing down.
I thought most of us Michigan fans would have learned this by now - prepare for the worst, hope for the best (and actually, uh, expect the worst too)
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:28 PM ^
I hear you there. I can just remember for each of the last two seasons everybody was thinking we'd get at least 6 or 7 wins. I know there's something to be said for optimism (believe me, I would LOVE to see us win 12 regular season games and a National Championship this year), but forgive me for being just a little bit skeptical. And I know speculating and predicting makes the offseason go round, but I'll gladly wait a few weeks to make any kinds of predictions about our chances for the rest of the year.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:38 PM ^
There's always that team that pops up out of nowhere and gives Michigan a run, if history has taught us anything. Definitely look out for Indiana and Purdue, especially with both being on the road. Those are games we just can't afford to give up. That's our difference between a 6-6 and a more reasonable 8-4 season.
August 24th, 2010 at 11:53 PM ^
I am certain that one Rich Rodriguez goes to bed at night with thoughts of unleashing hell on Danny Hope and Purdue.
August 23rd, 2010 at 8:31 PM ^
Sports fans in general are addicted to predictions. ESPN makes big $$$$$$ doing just that all day every day. Sportscasters are like Meteorologists, they get paid even if they are wrong.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:30 PM ^
Preseason predictions mean nothing right now, so why would I want to already assign 5 losses to the team. Sure this team can lose 9 games this year, but I think they could also win 10+. I am just suprised when people say they don't think we can win more than X number of games.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:31 PM ^
Should we wait another week to do preseason predictions? I'm not sure how much longer we can put them off.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:33 PM ^
Sorry, I meant a few weeks into the season.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:34 PM ^
I'm just giving you a hard time. For some reason after reading the OP, I am now in that type of mood.
August 24th, 2010 at 8:16 PM ^
but I have to say, it is hard not to be an optimist as a fan of Michigan. We have had so many fond memories of us winning (not too many of us being an underdog), but it is difficult for us to not expect great things out of our teams. We could have our best player go down, and still have several posts like this explaining how we can win every game. I have got to admit it though, I love it.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:26 PM ^
At least it's possessive...
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:34 PM ^
That took me FAR to long to figure out what was wrong with that. -1 for my embarassment to the University.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:36 PM ^
It's alright. I made a diary last year that got similar ridicule because I did it in between my 8am and 10am classes. I just got a kick out of it so I had to point it out.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:26 PM ^
Practically everything that CAN go right, WILL go right. Obviously that's always possible, but except in our fantasies practically never happens. The last year that happened for Michigan was 1997.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:36 PM ^
Also, in 2 years RichRod has only won 1 game that should've been a loss on paper (Wisconsin), and we've lost many to teams we were better than on paper. That should tell you something.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:41 PM ^
Minnesota 2008 was a win on paper? That was a road game against a bowl team.
I don't recall us being favored to beat ND last year, either.
Not to mention our close calls against Utah in '08 and Iowa in '09 - two BCS-bowl teams that we came within an eyelash of beating.
It's gone both ways.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:48 PM ^
Ah! Too slow! You beat me to it, jmblue.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:47 PM ^
I think it's fair to call the Notre Dame game last year an upset, both going into it and in looking at both teams at the end of the season. Plus, I'm not sure how good Minnesota was supposed to be in 2008, but Michigan was so horrendous that year that it's hard to imagine that Minnesota wasn't the favorite (both leading into the game and in retrospect).
August 23rd, 2010 at 6:10 PM ^
I think Notre Dame was a narrow favorite in last year's game, but not the extent where Michigan's win was a major upset. Point spreads involving the Irish are always a bit exaggerated, because so many people bet on them, regardless of how well they actually play.
Obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, Michigan's victory over Minnesota in 2008 was an upset. But viewed through the prism of what was known at the time, the Gophers up to that point had played only one really solid opponent (Ohio State), while the perception of Michigan was bad-luck team that was much better than its record. Nobody looks back on that game as any kind of upset.
That leaves Wisconsin in 2008 as the Rodriguez's only straight-up win over a solidly favored opponent. It is also worth noting that Rodriguez has only one road victory to date (the aforementioned Minnesota).
All of this is merely to point out what a tall order 10–2 would be.
August 23rd, 2010 at 6:49 PM ^
When we played Minnesota, we were 2-7. They were 7-2. It was on the road. There is no way you can argue that it wasn't an upset. (Not to mention that our starting QB, Threet, was out for the game due to injury, and "Sheridan = DEATH" was the meme du jour around here.) Look through the archives of this site if you don't remember it. As for the notion that we were a "bad-luck team that was much better than its record," I'm pretty sure that went out the window by the time we lost to Toledo, if not sooner.
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:33 PM ^
I try to stay grounded as to not be crushed if things don't go well.
But with that being said, I agree that with a little luck and moderate improvement we could seriously surprise some people.
Heres the way I think about it:
5-7 or worse: Disappointment (to put it mildly)
6-6/7-5: Satisfied (What I expected, but far from happy)
8-4/9-3: Very Pleased (RR stays for sure and the future is bright)
10-2 or better: (No words can explain)
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:40 PM ^
their offense might not require us too
IU and ND say "we almost beat them last year, they lost Graham, Warren, Minor, Brown and i think we will improve. throw in the home field advantage and we should beat UM"
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:40 PM ^
that would be amazing if OSU was undefeated and we ruined their National Championship hopes! then they played some SEC team in a bowl game and got crushed
August 23rd, 2010 at 5:45 PM ^
I didn't see anyone mention double or triple revenge : (
August 23rd, 2010 at 6:30 PM ^
I will try to stay grounded,just in case we stub our toe and only win 10 games.
August 23rd, 2010 at 6:38 PM ^
Is home field advantage 6 points, or 3 points? If it's 3 points, does this change any of those games (like MSU or Iowa)?
August 23rd, 2010 at 6:46 PM ^
Vegas thinks it's worth three points more than playing the game at a neutral site. I've always thought that was a little too low, but they're in the business of getting people to put money on the games, so I'd guess they know what they're talking about.
August 23rd, 2010 at 6:51 PM ^
Another fan that thanks we could be good this year,not that many are on are side!!!We should win at least 9 games this year,WE REALLY NEED TO BEAT OHIO STATE THIS YEAR.It can be done,just can't turn it over 6 times like last year.
August 23rd, 2010 at 7:06 PM ^
For all who say Michigan SHOULD win 8 or 9 games this year--what to do if they come in at 6-6 or worse?
See, you are setting yourselves up for some serious soul searching if Rodriguez and Michigan limp into the OSU game needing a win to make a bowl.
In any ordinary OLD Michigan season, nine wins would be a given. Not so--far too many question marks, and I'll side with the guys who think it's going to be hard as hell to make this defense better without Warren, Graham, Brown, and now Woolfolk. Sorry, I'm not putting too much faith in "Floyd and the Freshmen"
Not to rain on the optimism parade here (except that's apparently exactly what I'm going to do)--but I cannot fathom that kind of optimism coming off two years like UM just had, with so man question marks and even more hopes and prayers.
August 23rd, 2010 at 7:25 PM ^
I love it when people say "no offense, but" or any other rendition (in this case, "not to rain on our parade). You might as well just say "I'm not trying to be a dick, but really I am. But if I say it like this I'm totally letting myself off the hook. Kinda"
August 23rd, 2010 at 7:36 PM ^
Referring to people with whom you disagree as "druggies" is probably not a great way to win friends and influence people.
August 23rd, 2010 at 7:37 PM ^
you can't fathom that kind of optimism. I just gave you reasons why every game is winnable. If you don't want to rain on my optimism, feel free to give me reasons why any of those games aren't winnable.
We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it - and stop there; lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove-lid. She will never sit down on a hot stove-lid again - and that is well; but also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore. ~Mark Twain
What we should take from the last few years is not to lower our expectations for wins, but to understand that anything is possible when it comes to wins and losses.
August 24th, 2010 at 8:57 PM ^
Looking at the schedule, every game in 2007 was winnable. Turns out, Oregon probably wasn't -- but the rest were.
Shit happens. And that team had a bit more talent and depth than this. Just sayin'
Anyway I'm goin' with 9 wins for my prediction so just nevermind
August 23rd, 2010 at 8:05 PM ^
"games our won in the trenches"
Our they?
August 23rd, 2010 at 8:15 PM ^
I know I had a lot of grammatical mistakes in the post, as I was trying to write it quickly and was more concerned with the content then an entire proof read. The other poster was funny because of the rediculous fact I made made "there" possessive to take the place of their and called me on it.
August 23rd, 2010 at 8:23 PM ^
You have made a bold call and backed it up with some analysis. I can respect that. But, I just can't get that crazy with the happy juice.
We lost our best player on defense to the first round of the NFL draft. Both starting CBs on a not-too-good 2009 defense are gone and our number 1 player at that position is injured. Our linebackers routinely missed assignments and overran plays. Our secondary is young, not that fast and will be overmatched in most games. However improved Tate or Denard are, they are sophomores. Our best two running backs from last year are gone. Those who remain are unproven over a season of work. (Anyone else worried that no one RB has grabbed hold of that job?)
Think back to some of the past 10 win teams and the players that were on them. Many were in their third, fourth or fifth years in the program. Many were exceptionally talented. The progrm was stable and distraction free. Those are the kinds of teams that win 10 games. I am sad to say that this is not that kind of team
I don't want to piss in your Wheaties, or be a downer. I will be at the games and cheering my ass off. I am just very worried about this year. I fear a poor (4-8 or 5-7) year will force Brandon to make a change that will cause another rebuild. Then we go through all this again, and who knows how it looks in 2014. If they win seven games (bowl included) I will be happy (and relieved.)
If they win 10 games, I will gladly admit my mistake and recognize you, Hail-Storm, as a true master of mgopredictions.
August 24th, 2010 at 8:59 PM ^
but one of the last positions on the field I am worried about is ruuning back. IME this offense will work for most competent and quick RBs. RB just has never been a concern for me since RichRod has arrived. The defense on the other hand has many questions and puts a hault to a lot of optimism, but man do I love to drink the MGoKoolaid and buy into this post.
August 23rd, 2010 at 9:41 PM ^
Dont forget RR gets an extra week to prepare for JoePa. That might help. Guys can rest up a bit... Then again JoePa gets and extra week to prepare for RR. Oh nevermind.
GO BLUE!!
August 24th, 2010 at 8:48 PM ^
Think of it more as an extra week to forget about Michigan, for ol' Joe