Why scorn the Northwestern football win and celebrate the Nebraska basketball win?

Submitted by Cold War on

In both cases, we beat a conference dreg on the road. But there was outrage over the football victory and celebration of the basketball win. Why?

2Blue4You

January 10th, 2014 at 8:56 AM ^

Nebraska seems to be on the upswing. Good offensive output and shaky defense. I'm happy with the win and do not take it for granted.

Not sure about the comparison.

Space Coyote

January 10th, 2014 at 9:00 AM ^

If only because they didn't have much other place to go. Their offense still doesn't have very good output except when Michigan reverts to "bad Michigan defense", which they seem to do every once in a while.

That leads to another point: when has Michigan's basketball defense ever been equal to the expectation? I feel like they also are either worse than expected or better than expected. Sometimes they don't seem to defend the lane at all (Nebraska), and other times you look at the collection of guys, the mismatches on the defensive end, and they seem to hold up really well. It seems like they never just are. Maybe it's just me.

ijohnb

January 10th, 2014 at 9:41 AM ^

it is likely because Michigan has a collection of steady, crafty individual defenders but a coaching staff that values offensive execution and controlling the pace of the game more than they do winning by way of having a lockdown team defense.  I think almost all of the players on Michigan's team are good at defending their man, but are less versed in team defense, defensive communication and team adjustments on the whole.  It is not a criticism of Beilien, different coaches have different philosophies.  It does not appear to me that Tom Izzo coaches offense like at all except for going "screw it, high weave" when they are really struggling.  He focuses more on team defense and rebounding to win games.  I think that Michigan has some above average defensive performers who are just not coached up that much to be a real strong defensive unit.

And OP, this team has won 5 straight after losing possibly their best player, with two wins being Big Ten road wins, significantly improving our tourney/seeding outlook.  Nebraska was debuting their new arena in Big Ten play, playing like their only ESPN game this decade, and making prayer 3s all night and we pulled out a win with our freshman point guard hitting the game winner.  And GR 3 looked like his GR2 for nearly the whole game.  I don't think it is too hard to figure out why last night's win was both important and promising.

PM

January 10th, 2014 at 9:43 AM ^

As it relates to strong individual defenders I submit Spike as an exception to your statement. However, I do agree at the relative lack of emphasis by the coaches as it relates to lockdown defense.  That's not to say they don't stress defense and coach it, just that the offensive system is higher priority.

ijohnb

January 10th, 2014 at 9:46 AM ^

all......

That being said I don't really see Spike as being that bad.  I get it, he is not like the Jordan-stopper but I really don't notice him getting beat so often that it stands out to me.

umumum

January 10th, 2014 at 10:46 AM ^

I do agree that Beilein's reputation is built largely on his offensive schemes and not defense.  That said, to the extent he has defensive schemes, they are based on team defense concepts--including the 1-3-1 halfcourt trap (which he has hardly used at Michigan), and the high ball hedge (which he has used most always here). 

I disagree that we have crafty individual defenders.  There isn't a single lockdown defender on the team--starter or bench--certainly not Levert (who I name only because he is somehow perceived as such).  The past few teams compensated by playing good team defense.  This one hasn't figured that out yet.  Players get lost or are simply confused on simple ball screens.  Horford cannot hedge properly--doesn't stop the dribbler and then is slow to get back to his man--Morgan is excellent at it, on the other hand. 

Team D sometimes takes time to figure out--Douglas and Timmy are 2 players who did so.  I am cautiously optimistic that we will get better on the defensive end as the season evolves--getting more turnovers turned into easy baskets would certainly help.

As an aside, I also disagree with the premise of the OP.  Football and basketball expectations are different, particularly on the road, for a reason.  History says road losses to bad teams on the road occur more often in basketball than they do in football.  Further, we were awful in the Nw (football) game until the end (in fact, Nw gave the game away)--and more importantly, this followed 2 embarrassing losses to MSU and Nebraska.  If the Nw game had followed 2-3 wins, I suspect everyone would have reacted much like people are now after the Nebraska BB game.

umchicago

January 10th, 2014 at 2:34 PM ^

i guarantee you that beilein spends more time coaching D than O during practice.  i think guys like douglass and novak even stated as much.  they also said beilein's complex D schemes take awile to get good at. i believe they said there is usually a big sophomore leap for beilein's guys on D.

jmblue

January 10th, 2014 at 11:00 AM ^

I think almost all of the players on Michigan's team are good at defending their man, but are less versed in team defense, defensive communication and team adjustments on the whole.

I would say the opposite - we have very few good defenders (particularly on the ball) but we are halfway decent at team defense. Problem is, we're over-reliant on rotations because individually we're so bad, and the rotation isn't always going to get there - or if it does, it results in a mismatch, like Walton on a big guy or (as was true many times last night) a big guarding their point guard) .

LKLIII

January 10th, 2014 at 12:36 PM ^

My wife and I were talking about this last night and we decided there are several reasons:

1)  This was not a battle of two self-destructive teams competing to see who wanted to lose the least.  I don't watch a lot of Nebraska basketball, but to me it seemed like they are an improved team from last year.  Their defence seemed reasonably solid.  Plus a few things went their way--great stats from the freethrow & 3-point lines.  

2)  Expectations.  I think with the 4 non-con losses and Mitch being out for the season, my unreasonable expectations have been mercifully dashed relatively early in the season.  Not to the point of depression, but to the point where I can just realistically enjoy each game in isolation.  With each road win in the Big Ten, it gives me hope that we can in fact make the dance, and perhaps get into the later rounds.  Maybe not a Final Four, but a pretty solid showing nonetheless.

3)  I'm relatively new to watching basketball, but my understanding is that getting a road win in BB is significantly harder than getting one in football.  That, plus the quality Minnesota win boosts Michigan's prospects in the Big Ten for seeding purposes later this year.

4)  I saw some fire in the belly from GRIII and some more confidence in Walton Jr. out there.  Things we will definitely need in the absence of Mitch this season.  For what is still a very young team, it's always good to pull out a squeaker win to build that end-of-game exeprience in young players.  Even if it's against a Nebraska, the buzzer-beater butterflies is still something good for the freshmen to experiece so that when it is against an MSU or Wisconsin, it won't be such a surreal feeling.

5)  Because there are so many games in the season in BB, I think there is much less focus on "style points" for each individual game compared to football.  With only 12 or 13 games per season to compare records, each individual game will get scrutinized more.  Not so as much with basketball.  

6)  That epic 3 point half court shot by Walton.  I haven't seen the entire board today, but has somebody made a GIF of that yet?  The best part wasn't even the shot--it was the Nebraska crowd's universal hands-grabbing-head reaction to it.

Space Coyote

January 10th, 2014 at 9:07 AM ^

I couldn't find college sport specific, but for pro sports, basketball does have the greatest home advantage, but not by much. According to freakonomics, basketball home teams win 60.5% of games, while NFL home teams win 57.3%. I would venture to say the win percentage is higher for both in college sports, but probably proportionally so.

I do tend to think it's more difficult in basketball because of sight lines, the basketball is different, and those sorts of things. But they're pretty close.

Interestingly, MLS has the highest home advantage at 69.1%. Trying to think of why that may be, and I know soccer fans are crazy but noise doesn't really affect soccer players, so I'm wondering if maybe travel arrangements are that much worse that maybe traveling has more affect? Interesting nonetheless.

Space Coyote

January 10th, 2014 at 9:18 AM ^

Which in soccer I could see having a major effect where one call or missed call can be the one goal difference to win. Also, in basketball, where there are so many calls.

From my high school days of basketball though, I will say that I do think there is a difference when you play with different sight lines than you're used to. Now, the teams do get shoot around and likely practice even with the ball that will be used in the upcoming game (and the ball has much more uniformity at that level than in high school), but just a little different feel can have an affect too.

But, the referee behavior is probably more of it either way, especially in B1G basketball.

Yeoman

January 10th, 2014 at 9:20 AM ^

I've seen that claim several times but I've never found a study that actually verifies it. The SI article a few years back that popularized the claim did a good job of establishing the fact of referee bias but never actually compared the effect to the home advantage as a whole. (Which didn't keep them from claiming that it was the entire effect. That kind of ruined the article for me.)

I think we can be pretty confident that in football crowd noise creates a substantial advantage for the home team by disrupting the visitors' signals.

If you've got links to some studies please post them--I think you may have seen some articles I haven't.

Alton

January 10th, 2014 at 11:02 AM ^

There have been some refutations of that "referee bias" study as well.  For example, there is no observable differrence in ball/strike calls by the plate umpire between home & away (and now that Pitch F/X exists, we know to the millimeter where each pitch crosses the plate).  So if baseball HFA is due to officiating, wouldn't it show up in ball/strike calls?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-quick-question-about-home-field-advantage/

Also, in football and basketball, HFA is much stronger in the first quarter of the game compared to the second, third and fourth quarters.  Why would that be the result of officiating?  Wouldn't that more likely be the result of environmental unfamiliarity issues or "travel weariness"?

Here is an interesting discussion of this subject:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/hawks-doves-and-home-field-advantage.html

It's worth pointing out as well that HFA seems to be as strong, if not a little stronger, in Division III NCAA football compared to Division I FBS NCAA football.  This again makes me think that HFA is more due to travel weariness and other environmental factors (D3 players travel by bus, often on the morning of game days, while FBS players more frequently travel by plane, and/or travel the night before a game).

 

Alton

January 10th, 2014 at 2:14 PM ^

I wouldn't think that would be testable; isn't the UAA only like a 4-team conference in football (Chicago, WUSTL, CWRU, CMU)?  I wouldn't think measuring HFA in a conference with only 6 conference games per year would come close to being statistically significant, no matter what results you got.

60blue

January 10th, 2014 at 12:14 PM ^

I don't have data to back this up but in the MLS case every stadium has different field dimensions.  Narrow/short fields favor defense-oriented teams while wider/longer fields are more favorable to possession-oriented teams that can spread out the field.   

Space Coyote

January 10th, 2014 at 8:57 AM ^

It's understood that Michigan's basketball team is pretty good but not great. People believe the football team should have been great.

It's also understood in basketball that a road conference win is tough no matter what, while a road win at Northwestern is hardly considered a road win.

You also have to look at program history to some degree. Football is supposed to be good. In basketball, people are just happy we don't suck anymore, so even if it was last year's team, people wouldn't be happy about the game but they'd say "look where we were".

I don't agree with it completely, but I don't think it's really a big deal.

Space Coyote

January 10th, 2014 at 9:12 AM ^

But not because of the reasoning above, IMO. People expected and thought the football team should be great this year. Hence probably most on here predicting 10+ wins. When that expectation repeatedly was reaffirmed as incorrect, it made people upset, because of where they believed that team should have been because of what they saw on paper.

jsquigg

January 10th, 2014 at 3:57 PM ^

Actually what made people upset IMO was people seeing a team that was capable of much more handcuffed by coaching.  This was mostly offensively but was present in all facets of the team.  Even if the team performed below expectations I think the rage would be reduced if there were signs of improvement over the course of the year.  There wasn't.    

Steve in PA

January 10th, 2014 at 9:28 AM ^

"It's understood that Michigan's basketball team is pretty good but not great." With the modern college game what it is there are very few great teams anymore. I'd even go out on a limb and say here are none. The one-and-done has crippled teams from being great anymore. The difference between the bottom and he top has shrunk to the point that a poor team that matches up well can win almost any night if things go correctly. It's why I love college sports and basketball in particular. A "good" team can get hot and win 4 games in the tournament and be cutting down the nets. I was impressed with how far Nebraska has come. But, we caught them on a night when they were playing far above expectation although KP only had us at -4.

aiglick

January 10th, 2014 at 10:17 AM ^

There's also the advantage that the BIG is actually pretty good in basketball whereas in football we are probably the third or fourth best conference. So beating a lower ranked BIG team in basketball is more impressive than doing so against one in football.

Nebraska is around 68 in the RPI right now FYI so they're not exactly slackers so far. There are north of 300 teams in basketball.

Northwestern is not even close to that in football this year.

Check out realtimerpi.com to see NCAAM rankings.

wresler120

January 10th, 2014 at 9:01 AM ^

The Northwestern football team was playing very bad and had been ever since they lost to Ohio. As for Nebraska, yes their basketball team is bad, but B1G road bball games are always tough and then you add in that Nebraska is trying to not start off 0-3 in conference play while also playing their first conference basketball game at their new arena. The crowd was pumped, players were pumped

Mr. Yost

January 10th, 2014 at 9:01 AM ^

We actually played okay, we finally showed life in the running game with Derrick Green and we went on the road and won.

Also, they were at two different points in the season with two different teams.

If MBB was undefeated and had knocked off Arizona, I think people may be more reserved about the Nebraska win. But we are a young team that has showed promised, but still learning.

We're also without our best player.

FOOTBALL, well they set the tone early with ND. Then "mighty" MSU LOST to that same ND team. So naturally, people started feeling pretty good.

However, I don't think there was much groaning after the NW win, you're always going to have a GhostofYost aka Spock that is never pleased, but football also gets more viewers/comments so you're naturally going to have more of those types of people.

I think if we would've beat PSU there would've been some groaning same with Iowa. We didn't play well in those games and our OC cost us both of them.

IMO, there was more groaning after the IU win than the NW win.

Lastly, NW had some tough losses that completely ruined their season, but I think they're better in football than Nebraska is in basketball. If NW won 10 games this year, it wouldn't have surprised anyone. If Nebraska finishes 2nd or 3rd in the league this year, we'll all be shocked.

That kind of proves your point a little more, but I'm just saying NW wasn't a bad win (I know, no such thing, but you all know what I mean...). Nebraska was a tough road victory vs. a conference team in their new arena without your best player.

I'll take them both.

ijohnb

January 10th, 2014 at 10:15 AM ^

I think you are correct about McGary being our best player up until his injury, I don't think that we can continue to rely on it in terms of how we view the team and its performance.  At this point, it is questionable whether McGary will ever put on a Michigan uniform again with the possibility of going pro, so at this point I think we have to judge the team in terms of who is on it right now.  In the same way I don't think the Bulls can say "well we didn't have our best player so....."    I was pleased with the win, but with possibly two first round picks still on the court I think it is fair to expect a little bit more.