For the not so great formatting. Its my first post, it looked much better prepost.
Why Michigan could make the Fiesta Bowl.
I'll have me some of that koolaid!
Agreed, this is about as realistic as those "UFOs" out in Denver. Everyone knows they are probably just some experimental drones coming out of Ft. Collins, but hey, it's fun to pretend sometimes too!
Those "UFOs" look very much like insects flying close to the lens. Never underestimate the gullibility of the masses.
This would be awesome if it worked out. Anybody willing to make a "Spartan Tears Taske Like Tostitos" sign??
or we just don't acknowledge Spartan tears at all and mention to Ohio how nice it is to be playing in a bowl game.
God, I hope we don't ever do that again. That sign was embarrassing.
Granted it wasn't as lame as, say, putting up a billboard along the interstate, but what fanbase would ever stoop to that level?
Still we should be above such juvenile antics.
Don't we have to finish somewhere in the top 14 or something like that in the BCS standings to make a BCS game? I thought that was one of the big deals last year but I could be wrong. Given our current ranking I don't see how we could move up that far. Is there something else that would allow us to make it?
If you read through the post, it shows how all the teams in front of us can lose and move us up.
We are currently 21st in the BCS, if we win out, and depending on who else loses, we might make it up to 14th.
But seeing as OSU is not in the BCS rankings, does a win against an undefeated team that is not ranked (only because it can't be), would that count less??
As far as I know, the computers still factor in OSU, PSU, NC, etc., but they're removed when they list their top 25. So, for example, if OSU is #4 in a computer, everyone behind them gets bumped up a spot when it's entered into the BCS ranking.
Plus it'd be a bonus with the human voters, which is even more important.
you don't get punished for playing a good team that's been naughty.
I dont think the above scenario will play out. But a convincing win over Ohio would probably give us the rankings jump necessary for the top 14.
Honestly, the least likely thing that needs to happen is us beating OSU. If we do that, even by one, we probably make it.
I believe top 16, but your point is well taken. A lot to happen in the next three weekends. On a side note, I can moderate again! Hurrah me! And I gave you some informative action OP!!
No you didn't; it's top-14 unles some weirdness happens with some BCS conferences not qualifying.
I live in Arizona, no way anything that convenient will happen for me.
But if we make it to the Fiesta, where does that leave MSU? Will they get shut out of the BCS again? Damned football gods.
EDIT: Beaten to the punch(line). Dang.
After playing in one of the glamorous Buffalo Wild Wings or Little Caesars bowl games, it leaves them sitting on their couches watching.
Don't get your cart before the horse. They still aren't bowl eligible.
I thought the SEC can only get 2 BCS teams?
They can only get two teams in. The OP is assuming that Alabama will be the SEC champion and then one of Georgia, Florida, Texas A&M, LSU or South Carolina will get the other spot
That's why all those teams in the top 10 won't go. He is saying only 1 of those 5 teams will go.
It's interesting but you have 3 holes.
1. Nebraska is not MSU. Nebraska beat us so they should go ahead of us. Unlike last year Nebraska travels like a mother fucker so we don't get the bump up ahead of them like we did MSU who can't make to their own stadium and no bowls care about.
2. Oklahoma- they will be favored in all their games.
3. Clemson- They will only have 2 losses if they lose to SC and would probably still be ahead of us.
I think you need Wiscy to lose to OSU this weekend and then lose to Nebraska in the title game so you can get Nebraska to Pasadena.
I have Nebraska in the Rose Bowl.
Seeing Oklahoma lose one of those games doesn't seem too far fetched.
The Clemson part I can see, but since its their last game, if they get blown out, they wont have a chance to bounce back.
Seems like Wisky beating Nebraska would be bad on a couple of fronts. 1) That puts Wisky in the Rose Bowl (does it matter where Wisky is in the BCS?) 2) By extension that probably hurts M in the computers (SOS lowered).
Its Rose or no BCS bowl for Nebreska. If they lose they almost certainly will fall ouf of the top 14. Even in the unlikely event that they didn't, bowls don't like to select teams who lose their conference championship game if another viable option is available.
Also, having the Big Ten Champ in the Top 14 takes away one more possible at large berth. If you have 5 of the 6 auto bids in the Top 14, there's only 9 possible at larges and the SEC is going to have a good chunk of those 9 teams but can only send 2.
What about the requirement that we be in the BCS top 16?
I think the idea is that if everything mentioned above happens we would move up the 5 spots into the top 14/16 (whatever it is).
We just pretty much need quite a few things to occur to make it happen as stated. I just think there are too many things that need to occur and go our way. We can only hope it works out that way. Would love back to back BCS bids.
I didn't realize we were already ranked 21st. This definitely seems plausible. I also agree with your assessment that it is unlikely. However, if we do go to the Fiesta, I will definitely be in attendance.
If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle.
Nice figurin'. I don't think Clemson falls out of the Top14 with a loss to a top10 though. Unless its an absolute blowout. Would love to see someone calculate the odds on this happening.
In the end I don't see Oklahoma losing, nor you beating tOSU.
He's a domer.
Yes me. Its not trolling, its truth.
How crazy is it being relevant?
Punch drunk bro. Never thought we'd scale the mountain.
Don't get ahead of yourself.
Oh come on. My standards are higher than scout. I don't even go to that web page.
I have never, ever, set foot on the Scout boards. To that I will swear on my mothers life.
It's difficult to imagine a scenario where we don't leapfrog LA Tech, UCLA, Oregon State, Louisville, Texas, and Stanford by winning out and beating undefeated Ohio in Columbus. That puts us at 15th. Even if/when USC upsets ND they'll go on to lose to Oregon the next week and we'll jump them at 14th. I'm also expecting Oklahoma to lose to OKState. OKState almost upset KState on the road, and Oklahoma has terrible defense. That'll put us 13th. In the last week Clemson and South Carolina, and FSU and Florida play each other, plus whoever doesn't lose in the SEC East will play Alabama so we could potentially jump 3 more spots, but I'm only counting on 2, putting us at 11th.
Still, we must beat Ohio.
Would USC beating ND hurt M? With the computers being a significant part of the BCS ranking, would a ND loss hurt M because we played them and our SOS would be lowered?
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Nice assist. Almost Trey Burke like!
Great advice, and yet you locked him in. Priceless.
Props to Turtleboy. Turtles gotta help each other out.
So is the assumption in this scenario that the Fiesta Bowl could be Michigan vs SEC At-Large?
So basically the same as the Capital One Bowl, just not in SEC country.
You're missing a wildcard: the bowl game will be Denard's last game. That plus a (potential) LSU matchup in the Fiesta would be tough to turn down, considering the storylines. Just make the top 14. And beat Ohio, obvs.
What reason does the nation have to care about Denard Robinson's last game? I know we all make him out to be the greatest thing ever, but the collective nation couldn't care less. The fact is, Denard is a 2010 story, the country has Johnny Football now. And earlier this year they had Geno Smith. And in 2 weeks they will have someone else. The truth of the matter is, Denard isn't and hasn't been in the national spotlight day in and day out since the first 5 weeks of 2010. He isn't a Tebow or a Vince Young, he doesn't have the national cache that michigan fans like to think.
Additionally, other than Michigan vs the Fighting Leslie Miles' (another Michigan-centric storyline btw) what national interest is there to a 3 loss Big Ten team (see: BIG TENNNNNN) playing a team that gave Alabama all it could handle. Michigan isn't the only team that travels well, and this year there is no way a 3 loss Big Ten team gets an At large bid over a 3 loss Oklahoma or a 2 loss Clemson.
"this year there is no way a 3 loss Big Ten team gets an At large bid over a 3 loss Oklahoma or a 2 loss Clemson."
There is if 3-loss Oklahoma and 2-loss Clemson aren't in the top-14 of the BCS. Also, what's the difference between 3-loss Oklahoma and 3-loss Michigan? Both lost two games to top-5 opponents, and Oklahoma's third loss would be to a team worse than Michigan's third loss. Plus Michigan would give OSU it's only loss, while Oklahoma's best win would be... Texas?
I realize it could happen if those teams aren't available. My point is that people will fudge their votes enough so that Oklahoma or Clemson are in the Top 14, not because of some disdain for Michigan, but rather because of the media perception of the Big Ten.
I completely agree that there is no difference between 3 loss Oklahoma and a 3 loss Michigan. I think we played ND tougher and didn't have them at home and our Nebraska loss carries the * of Denard being hurt. The problem is not what you or I think, its the media perception of the Big Ten and like it or not the conference's OOC losses killed that perception this year. Thats the reality we face and that is why Michigan will not leap-frog a 2 loss Clemson (with both losses to top 10 teams) or a 3 loss Oklahoma.
Another Clemson loss and their computer numbers become probably lower than Michigan's. They would lose at least I would say 4 spots in the human polls if they lose. Oklahoma with another loss I don't think is going to get the benefit of the doubt from either the pollsters or the Fiesta bowl. The Fiesta bowl has no reason to be loyal to the Big12 after they left them for the sugar
2-loss Clemson is our best bet. They've beaten exactly no one, and the computers hate hate hate the ACC.
What does an MSU fan do after they make a BCS game? Turns off his xbox.
Screw that I want Texas A&M.
You mean the team that beat Alabama?
This only happens if Oregon moves past KState. If KState stays at #1, the Fiesta scoop up ND.
Then we would go to the Orange Bowl.
one of the othe bowl games is going to take the Big East champ???
The Orange Bowl has the last selection this year. It's almost guaranteed that it'll be ACC Champ vs Big East champ cause no other bowl is going to take Louisville/Rutgers/Cincy.
So what are you saying excactly? There are only 4 at-large teams who can go. Just because the Fiesta picks a different team doesn't mean the 4 that picked are going to be different, with a few exceptions.
1. The Orange Bowl is almost guaranteed to get stuck matching the ACC Champ against the Big East Champ.
2. Michigan could find themselves in a bind if Kansas St finishes 1 and Oregon finishes 2. There's so many scenarios that can play out, but if the Fiesta gets ND to replace KState and Alabama wins the SEC, the open slots become Rose vs Big Ten, Fiesta vs ND and Sugar vs Ablama. The Rose isn't going to want an all Big Ten match up and neither the Fiesta or Sugar will want a rematch. Michigan's best hope in this case is that after ND gets one at large and you take out the SEC teams due to no more than 2 teams per conference that there are only 3 remaining at-large possibilites. UM would get in by default. If there are 4 at large teams available for 3 slots, UM probably gets the shaft.
If K-State stays first and the Fiesta grabs ND and no second Pac12 team is eligible (which is looking very possible) the Rose Bowl would probably take the second SEC team, either Tex A&M or Florida.
That would leave the Fiesta bowl with Clemson-ND if Clemson is top14. If Clemson isn't who does that leave them with? An OK rematch? A Michigan rematch? Louisville?
If the Fiesta grabs ND and Alabama wins the SEC, it'd be interesting. I'm guessing neither bowl would want a UM rematch but if the SEC has a bunch of teams in the Top 14 there won't be many available at-large teams.
just ordered my Fiesta Bowl tickets.
Beat Ohio in Columbus and I really don't care what happens after that. Been 12 years since we've won there, last win in 2000, 38-26.
drew henson naked bootleg. i remember it like it was over a decade ago.
It doesn't appear there are any rules preventing the Sugar Bowl from taking UM again. I doubt they'd want a Bama-UM rematch though.
Taken from the BCS webpage:
After completion of the selection process as described in Paragraph Nos. 1-4, the conferences and Notre Dame may, but are not required to, adjust the pairings, taking into consideration the following:
A. Whether the same team will be playing in the same bowl game for two consecutive years; and/or B. Whether two teams that played against one another in the regular season will be paired against one another in a bowl game; and/or C. Whether the same two teams will play against each other in a bowl game for two consecutive years; and/or D. Whether alternative pairings may have greater or lesser appeal to college football fans as measured by expected ticket sales for the bowls and by expected television interest, and the consequent financial impact on Fox and the bowls.
I understand they are not required too. But their is no way the conferences are going to allow a Michigan vs Alabama rematch to take place in the Sugar Bowl.
A&M has a pretty favorable schedule down the stretch and should finish 10-2. Fiesta Bowl will probably take them given their previous Big 12 ties and proximity to Phoenix and are probably hoping to pair them against Oklahoma.
Need to root hard for Oklahoma & the winner of this weekend's Oklahoma St./Texas Tech game to lose.
Texas A&M will be a hot, hot commodity for the bowls to fight over. High powered offense, exciting team, and Johnny Football. Plus, the fan base is closer.
I don't think either Tech or Ok St. has a shot at the top 14. Tech plays Ok St. and Baylor to end the season. neither game is going to help them that much. Ok St. does play OK, but a Michigan win over OSU would be more impressive and Michigan is already ahead of them.
Would love this to happen.
Michigan just needs to take care of business (beat Ohio in the land of the turd-coolers).
Any chance someone came to their senses and made the Fiesta play the game on a weekend?
Hard to see a 3 loss team in a BCS - has this ever happend? As much as it would be cool, I think we are looking at a Florida Jan 1 Bowl.
bcs is not happening this year outside of the rose bowl, which seems unlikely at this point. i see either the outback bowl or the capital one bowl. get an opportunity to go up against a top 15 sec team, maybe top 10? i'll take it.
...then beat Ohio.
Worry about the rest later.
Beat Ohio etc.
Is there a limit on how many teams from a particular conference can go to a BCS bowl? You've got like 6 SEC teams.
Is there a limit on how many teams from a particular conference can go to a BCS bowl? You've got like 6 SEC teams.
It could happen. I'd love to see it happen. Hopefully Michigan can pull out these mext two games, and we'll see what happens. A lot of football to be played yet?
The only reason Illinois went in 2007 was because ohio was in the national championship and they were ranked ahead of us
But what does that have anything to do with it? If a 9-3 team is in the top-14, then yes, they could very easily go. There might not even be an option.
We have three losses. Unless we win the big ten we can't play in a BCS game. Just ask Kork coupons.
That's what I always thought too, but the only win requirements are 9 wins. Nothing about losses, you just have to be ranked Top 14
I took the time to compile a little information on past trends for selections in the Fiesta Bowl in the BCS era to enhance the discussion a little bit.
Regardless of BCS rank, the SEC has sent a team twice, as has the ACC. Notre Dame has gone twice as well. The Big East and Pac-12 have had three selections. The Big Ten has had four selections, and so has the Mountain West. The Big 12 has seen eight selections.
The average BCS rank of a team going to this bowl is 6, with the highest having been the #1 ranked team in years when this has been the NC game. The lowest selection ever to go was a #21 Pitt team, who lost to Utah in the 2005 game. The standard deviation of the ranking is 4, so basically the greatest likelihood historically has been between #2 and #10 in the rankings. Including Pitt, a team ranked #10 or below has only been selected for this bowl five times. Only one selection in the Fiesta Bowl has been unranked - that honor goes to Connecticuit.
I would be interested in a Nebraska v. Texas A&M. Is that possible? (just my 2 cents)
That would be awesome. But it doesn't seem a little far fetched? They are only ranked 21st in the BCS rankings.
That would be awesome. But doesn't it seem a little far fetched? They are ranked 21st in the BCS rankings.
Did you read anything other than the title of the post?
You cannot play in a BCS game with three losses unless you win your conference. Stop spartying, please.
Everything obviously assumes we beat Ohio, but beating an undefeated Ohio in Columbus will boost our computers a lot. Also not losing at the end of the year may be even more helpful.