Why Michigan could make the Fiesta Bowl.
Even if Michigan doesn't make the Rose Bowl, we could end up in the Fiesta Bowl. I know there is a lot of football to be played, but none of these things are even unlikely to happen.
1 Kansas State 10-0 Wins out, goes to NC.
2 Oregon 10-0 Wins out, goes to NC.
3 Notre Dame 10-0 Wins out, replaces Oregon in Rose Bowl.
4 Alabama 9-1 Wins out, goes to Sugar Bowl.
5 Georgia 9-1 1 will get BCS at large.
6 Florida 9-1 1 will get BCS at large.
7 LSU 8-2 1 will get BCS at large.
8 Texas A&M 8-2 1 will get BCS at large.
9 South Carolina 8-2 1 will get BCS at large.
10 Florida State 9-1 Wins out, goes to Orange Bowl.
11 Clemson 9-1 Loses to South Carolina, falls out of top 14.
12 Oklahoma 7-2 Plays OSU, Baylor, and WVU. Loses 1 and falls out of top 14.
13 Stanford 8-2 Loses to Oregon, falls out of top 14.
14 Nebraska 8-2 Wins out, goes to Rose Bowl, or loses to WI and falls out of top 14.
15 Texas 8-2 Loses to KSU.
16 Oregon State 7-2 Loses to Oregon.
17 UCLA 8-2 Either beats USC and loses to Oregon, or loses to USC and possibly Stanford.
18 USC 7-3 Same situation as UCLA.
19 Louisville 9-1 Wins out, goes to Orange Bowl as last BCS pick.
20 LA Tech 9-1 Wont climb high enough.
21 Michigan 7-3 If wins out, goes to Fiesta Bowl.
22 Rutgers 8-1 Loses to Louisville.
23 Texas Tech 7-3 Chance could win out and jump Michigan.
24 Ok. St. 6-3 Chance could win out and jump Michigan.
25 Washington 6-4 No one else matters.
Assuming that the Rose Bowl picks ND to replace Oregon. the Fiesta gets the next two picks. The will obviously take an SEC at large. No chance they take the Big East champ. That leaves another at large. There are rules in the BCS to prevent the Sugar Bowl from having to take Michigan to prevent a rematch, so the Fiesta takes Michigan and Sugar takes another choice, leaving FSU vs Big East in the Orange Bowl.
November 15th, 2012 at 8:24 PM ^
November 15th, 2012 at 5:43 PM ^
I took the time to compile a little information on past trends for selections in the Fiesta Bowl in the BCS era to enhance the discussion a little bit.
Regardless of BCS rank, the SEC has sent a team twice, as has the ACC. Notre Dame has gone twice as well. The Big East and Pac-12 have had three selections. The Big Ten has had four selections, and so has the Mountain West. The Big 12 has seen eight selections.
The average BCS rank of a team going to this bowl is 6, with the highest having been the #1 ranked team in years when this has been the NC game. The lowest selection ever to go was a #21 Pitt team, who lost to Utah in the 2005 game. The standard deviation of the ranking is 4, so basically the greatest likelihood historically has been between #2 and #10 in the rankings. Including Pitt, a team ranked #10 or below has only been selected for this bowl five times. Only one selection in the Fiesta Bowl has been unranked - that honor goes to Connecticuit.
November 15th, 2012 at 6:03 PM ^
I would be interested in a Nebraska v. Texas A&M. Is that possible? (just my 2 cents)
November 15th, 2012 at 6:41 PM ^
That would be awesome. But it doesn't seem a little far fetched? They are only ranked 21st in the BCS rankings.
November 15th, 2012 at 6:43 PM ^
That would be awesome. But doesn't it seem a little far fetched? They are ranked 21st in the BCS rankings.
November 15th, 2012 at 6:48 PM ^
Did you read anything other than the title of the post?
November 15th, 2012 at 8:07 PM ^
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
LSU
South Carolina
November 15th, 2012 at 9:42 PM ^
November 15th, 2012 at 9:45 PM ^
Everything obviously assumes we beat Ohio, but beating an undefeated Ohio in Columbus will boost our computers a lot. Also not losing at the end of the year may be even more helpful.